 The Taliban takeover of most of Afghanistan has alarmed the world while developments are still unfolding there. It's important to look at what this really means for the region and around Afghanistan and for India. We have with us former ambassador of India to Tajikistan, Belarus and Azerbaijan, Mr. Muthukumar, Mr. Bia Muthukumar, welcome to NewsClick. Sir, can you begin with trying to evaluate the situation for India right now in Afghanistan? Considering the recent statements of the Taliban, do you expect it to change? Ma'am, I'm not so sure what India's position is at the moment because we seem to be very clear that the Taliban is someone that you're not going to deal with. Now, that is a very, very difficult situation if we want to do something in Afghanistan. Taliban must be accepted as another facet of Afghan politics. Afghanistan is a land of minorities. For students are a minority, the Tajiks are a minority, everybody is a minority. So it takes two or three communities or ethnic groups to form a majority. Now that being so, in the land of minority, we must accept the Taliban as another facet of Afghan politics. In India also we have a similar situation where we have politics that are at times difficult to stomach. But nevertheless, that is a facet of our current politics. So if we can accept the current politics in India, there is no harm in accepting politics of Afghanistan is their choice. If they have decided that the Taliban are forcing themselves, what would the story be? So what we see after 20 years is that the US has spent $3 trillion almost, be it $2.4, $2.5, what was that, the number is not important, but they spent trillions of dollars to remove the Taliban and bring back the Taliban. Now that is the fact today and that is the fact we have to accept and accept that historical fact also. Now you cannot, like for example, I heard someone, clever man, speak from Delhi from our own ministry saying that it's a, the Taliban are a de facto group. Now I don't understand that they are, they are ruling there and you're referring to other de facto group. Now, some way we have to get pragmatic and pragmatism means that we have something to say or something to play. Actually at the outset, let me tell you, India has no role in Afghanistan. We are a group. We have stakes there. There are no stakes. We do not have stakes there. What stakes are you talking about? The assistance that we are given is no state. It is our assistance program, which we have done. They were in need. We gave it to them. It's part of the Bonn Conference where we assured certain amount of assistance or developmental assistance. So, let us not take it as an investment, that is not an investment. It is a developmental process that we participated in Afghanistan at that time. We started at that and we were very genuinely and correctly we went about doing what we can and as usual, we like to be doing a part on our back to say that we have done a good job. Yes, we did a good job. But then that should not be a criteria for us to think that it's a leverage for us to play in Afghanistan. We have no leverage. There's often talk of India's soft power. Are you saying that doesn't mean anything? We would have stakes in peace. Ma'am, very frankly, let me tell you, I do not like to beat around the bush to say talk about soft power. I do not know what soft power is. The real, what we must talk about is the real power. Do you have the money power? No. Maybe yes, sometimes on certain occasions. Do you have an influence over the Afghans? Let me tell you, zilch. So we are only good boys in the neighborhood who are willing to help and we have done what we could within our own means, sacrificing our own needs to give the Afghans what we can. We did it. So that is, we can say, yes, India is a good boy, done a good deed. So we are like in a more, you know, if you have to compare anybody else with us, I think it will be like Japan, which can only be a do-gooder, keep giving some assistance. If it's useful, useful, and if somebody takes over and benefits out of it, fine. Like the Taliban, they're trying to derive a benefit from the Zaraans that are on highway. They wanted to share on the road taxes or whatever, you know, a return on that. Basically highway hunters. So that's sort of that highway, 606 or whatever, we built it. So even the Taliban want to say, if they want to benefit out of it, okay, fine. That is why it was never destroyed by the Taliban. So Taliban will also use what is available. Like for example, the Afghan National Army has very nicely handed over modern equipment to the Taliban. So there are many things that can happen in Afghanistan. But nobody, I'll tell you from the time Afghanistan was founded by the Duranis till today, nobody can say what will happen in Afghanistan the next minute or the next hour or the next day. We are all educated, informed education we have, informed opinion, certain aspects of history. We co-link some facts and we try and make some sense to it. But then Afghanistan is very much like what we'll call, you know, that what is the Sanskritic word, Afghanistan. So it's a confused stan or a board of confusion or, you know, many, many connotations are there. So that to an extent defines what the situation and it's all because the foreigners have always interfered in Afghanistan. If foreigners don't interfere in Afghanistan, things may be different. So we have, everybody has been interfering in Afghanistan. They get a chance, they want to do God knows what it is. How, how, what it should India be at least on the twin fronts of narcotics and terrorism now that the Taliban is in control? Man, man, let me tell you one thing. The narcotics trade before 2001, all the opium trade, many things were controlled by the ISI. And that is why the ISI had the cloud, the money cloud. Now, post October 2001, there were many actors and Western Union outlets were open all over Afghanistan, where the economy is on crumbles. But you have the Western Union where remittances keep coming or remittances keep going. Now that to an extent, there are many things, many explanations to be given on that. But the important thing is the ISI have lost control on the drug trade. The Taliban who are out of the scene were also out of the opium trade. Now who else can you name for the, for the opium trade? So what's happening is lots of NGOs have recycled what you call it laundered drug money for their, their operations. Some places, micro loans have also been given from this laundered money. And then they are paying back quite legit money. So these things are happening in Afghanistan. So well, the Americans have played a very good game. Now, if anybody has to talk of drug cartel, we can learn from Americans. So what does this actually mean? So don't blame the Taliban. The Taliban are not, pardon? I was going to ask, what does it mean for the region? For example, is this an untrammeled victory for Pakistan? Like many people are saying, the Pashtuns don't accept the Durand line. Could the problem come home sooner than? Yeah, the Durand line is another issue. But the present day Taliban, it's no brainer to say that the 1994 Taliban are different from the 2021 Taliban. It's a no brainer, very different. The late Mullah Omar is also known, not much around his son is confused. And there's the only man who has some kind of head on his shoulders is Maradar, Mullah Maradar. Who's the head of the political wing? And he just arrived from Doha a few days ago. So what he says, what he does not do is what people will watch. But within the Taliban, also we do not know whether he has an assured place to lead the Taliban administration. And the Taliban are not trained to administer. So therefore they are asking the previous government, civil servants, to come back to office and run and operate or whatever, run the show. But then so the Taliban of 1994 and 2021 are very different. Like for example, the other day I heard even more in Bhagavad talking about giving us assurances on the Hindutva ideology and so on, so forth, and none made the thing. So if we have accepted that kind of an assurance from our own leaders at home, why not we also accept the assurances given by the Taliban that they'll give the necessary attention to governance that the women's rights will be absorbed, of course, as for the Sharia. So that is there to know that there we are managing. We should believe it to them. So I get your point. But even in India, not everybody agrees with the assurances that are given. And in Afghanistan, that doesn't seem to be the case at all. Ma'am, it is not. Assurances is something that someone has told you. You believe or you don't believe. If you don't believe, do something about it. If you believe, then you go along with it. As they say, in the Bollywood language, tension lenega ne, tension lenega. So it depends upon how you look at it. So the important thing is that the Taliban are there. That's a reality. Now, we have to accept that reality and see what is our act and define our act on that basis. But the most important thing in all this is if we do not accept the Taliban, then if you want to have a role in Afghanistan, you have allies only in the opposition to Taliban. Would you like to go back to the square one of the Northern Alliance? Or do you want an all-inclusive government, which even Ahmad Masood, son, Ahmad Masood, he also wants while they are going to resist. He has vowed to fight. But he's also willing to talk if it's an all-inclusive government. Now, if they are considering those on those lines, and it is for us to also understand the Afghan point of view, because Afghans can only solve their problem. For us to say, we have no business in even telling anybody that there must be an all-inclusive government in Afghanistan. Who are we? What local strength do we have on that? Can anybody tell us that we must have a government with an all-inclusive government and that does not violate human rights, that issues are not taken to the UN, the United Nations, the issues are not taken to the human rights, Iqabista, can anybody dictate us those things? We don't accept it. So why must we dictate or keep staying redundant statements like, well, we want an all-inclusive government? Mind your own business first. Mind your home. Look after your people. Look after the people's welfare. Then talk, think about something else. If they need help, they'll call you. Right. So do you see a greater scope for cooperation at least among the neighbors of Afghanistan? Because now the US is no longer in the picture. And would not the US also understand that there exit and the Taliban take over affects Russia, China, Iran, perhaps India much more than it affects them? Ma'am, to say that the US have exited is a matter of perception. The present day Taliban is very much playing and hand in hand with the US. Otherwise the US would not have handed over the country to them the way they did. They are definitely consulting each other. They are much of collaborators. If anybody says it is not so, maybe they are just blind to choose to be blind or choose to be blind. So that is the thing. The US is very much there and they want a hold there. And like if the Afghan, the Taliban is saying, just they've made a statement saying that beyond 31st, there's no question of extending the US presence. Even the Taliban cannot stop the US presence in Afghanistan. If they want to say, they'll stay there. You see, the Americans are very much like this magician, Houdini, you know, put them into any locks, he'll break the lock and be there and then still be playing ball. Would the Indian establishment, the Indian state, try to milk what's happening in Taliban for their domestic political interest? No, ma'am. No? No, not at all. I mean, if we compare with what happened with Myanmar, you know, there was a refugee crisis which became a political issue and a social issue in India. Ma'am, you know, in Myanmar, what is an issue there? Because the Muslims are being persecuted in Myanmar. In Afghanistan, Muslims are going after Muslims who are not following the Sharia. So it's a two different games. Now, how weak are maybe, we can influence the Myanmaris or Burmese in many issues, wherever we think we can play a card. But with the Afghans, we can do nothing. The Afghans will play their own game, they'll call the shots. If they win, as I said, when they want any help from India, they will come to us. The question of, we trying to derive a mileage from the Taliban, the Taliban, of course, will come to us. On their own, they will come. The moment it gets too hot with Pakistan, the only alternate is to find their old friend, India. Persons have always been friendly to India. Taking the Taliban also, by and large, they all have some affection for India. They're not anti-India. I will not say if anybody says the Taliban is anti-India, we have not yet seen that aspect of it. It's the certain drive of the Islamic forces that is taking its own course. In the Afghans, per se, are not anti-Indian and that we must accept. And in that process, even Taliban are Afghans, so we must accept certain aspects of their thinking. And you must remember this now, that the Taliban today are not controlled by Pakistanis. I think we are over-emphasizing that the Pakistanis are controlling the Taliban. Absolutely not. Because the Pakistanis do not have the resources. They just do not have the resources to sort of get their agenda fulfilled by the Taliban. Even if it's to pay $65 per month to a Taliban, Pakistan cannot afford that. That kind of payment. And there are 80,000 Taliban. Calculate, multiply it even at $50 per month. Pakistan can't afford that kind of a payroll, you know? And it does not have the resources by way of funds coming from drugs or anything. They lost it all out. There are others who operating it and the Americans have left it and they have left their agents behind who will keep running that operation. So the drug money is out. So Pakistan playing any major role, no. That is why you'll find, everybody is opposed to the Taliban or in Islamabad looking for employment. Like for example, Kanuni is there in Islamabad. Wali Masood, young brother, he was there. The other brother, he was also there. Karim Khalili is there. Mahakkit, all these fellows, the two Azaras, they're all went there for employment. Why are they there? Pakistan is talking to them, they can't talk to the Taliban. Taliban are not interested in talking to Pakistan today. To say that Pakistan is full control of the Taliban is some kind of a myth. It was in 94 maybe when ISI was cash rich. Today, Pakistan economy is in doldrums. They have no, it's like in India we say, somebody will call you up and say, PM desires, this has to be done. Now who will call up the prime minister and say the PM desires? So you have that similar situation here that the Pakistan is constantly imagined and pretend that they control the Taliban and we think it is true. The Taliban are there one more time today. Even Afghanistan has no money, so would it need a lot of support and assistance from its neighbors, which brings up the question of recognition sometime in the future? Madam, thanks for WTO. Today, a country does not need much foreign exchange result. The man who wants to sell TV will sell TV even in Afghanistan. The man who wants to sell refrigerator will keep selling. The MNC is our wonderful way of conducting international trade. We are, we are naive to think that, you know, you need money to do trade. You can't get food in Sasa maybe, in Zair, Congo, but you can get the best of TVs, the best of cars you can get. How does it come? So if you see even in Kabul, the kind of cars that are there, traders are there who will find a way out to, to developmental money is what is not there. And even in that given situation in Afghanistan, every Afghan will try and be a success and will be a success. Afghanistan may not be a success. Afghans by sheer grit, their own resilience will live. No thanks to the government or no thanks to Taliban, which we have seen for the last 20 years. And of course, everybody is, everybody says that the leaders have run away with the money. Yes, some have run away, some have run away with the money because they need the money. The milk cow is dead. So whatever they could have milked, they want to take it away, they'll take it. So a new lot will come to find another new milk cow and keep milking. Okay, thank you, thank you very much for joining us. And thank you for watching NewsClip. Thank you very much, Ma'am.