 Thursday night's daily fantasy baseball slate is one of the more fun ones I can remember over the most recent couple of weeks because you get options We've got two elite studs going head-to-head with Carlos for dawn facing Corbin burns Obviously both those guys awesome options for daily fantasy, but also there's a value play. I like quite a bit so To me if that's up well there, but also there are stacks We can build around for today feel good about and I think high upside stacks too So we're gonna have a lot of points on the slate and that does make things sometimes somewhat frustrating for sure because you need a Lot of points to take down a tournament, but I think we've got guys who can get us there And I think that it's a predictable kind of ceiling slate So let's dive on in break it down and get you set what should be a fun night of DFS Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Thursday's 11 game main slate with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for today and no real weather to note for today The wind is in a wriggly fields if you want to bump down bats for the Cubs and the Mets probably shouldn't be stacking there Anyway, given the pitchers who are going there, but that's kind of is pretty clear slate overall Which just kind of again pays the way for it to live up to the billing of being one of the more fun Slates we've had so far this year will break down the pitching preview and stacks and much more in just one second But first a reminder make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed our Nascar Podcaster New Hampshire potentially going today have to decide when I want to post it recording it later on so That should be up either today or tomorrow on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Of course, we got UFC PGA MLB podcast whenever you need them So search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Anything like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well This baseball season turn case into cash and big hits into big wins with Fandall sports book right now New customers can step up to the plate with a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 with great promotions every day a safe and secure app and the ability to get paid fast There is no better place to bet America's pastime than on America's number one sports book Download the Fandall sports book app and sign up today to get your get started with your no sweat first bet up to $1,000 must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only Refund issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt restriction apply see full terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com Rg and Arizona 1 800 next step protects next step defy 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Louisiana 7 7 0 stop in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hope and wire text open why in Tennessee call the red line at 1 889 979 in Wyoming 1 800 5 2 2 4 700 or in West, Virginia 1 800 gambler net Pitching preview. It's doozy for this Thursday Slade Corbin Burns is the highest salary picture on Fandall checking in at $10,300 we got Carlos Rodin facing burns at 10 9 Kyle Wright is 10 5 from of all beds is 10 3 Kevin Gauzman checks in at 10 1 with this or Cortez at $9,900 Martin Perez 98 Luis Castillo facing the Yankees 95 Trista McKenzie gets the Tigers He's 93 Johnny Cueto is 92 with Sonny Gray facing Cueto at 9,000 Then Carlos Carrasco Tyler Anderson Marco Gonzalez and Drew Rasmussen are the others at $8,000 or higher And I will say our value play not listed in that discussion So we'll talk about him below $8,000 later on but first let's talk about this pitching duel between Rodin and burns they got to be the top two guys and I Don't really care which way he ordered them. Let's start here with the guy at home. That is Rodin He seems like he's over whatever was holding him back over the spring Which means we probably need to go back to viewing Rodin is being the elite level starter that he is and was earlier on this Year and it isn't just the results last time out where Rodin had 12 strikeouts nine innings It's that he was throwing lava out there the velocity on his fastball was 96.3 miles per hour That is the highest it's been since June 12th. It is the second highest it has been since May 21st So the velocity was good and Rodin was feeling it because he just kept on shucking that here he used his forcing fastball on 70% of his pitches and It worked again 12 strikeouts 22.3% swinging strike rates if they can't hit it just keep throwing it and that's what Rodin did But the full season now Rodin has a 3.1 out skill interactive yaw ray with a 31% strikeout rate He's facing the Brewers here their active roster has a 24% strikeout ray versus lefties and that is a mark that Rodin can handle I've got him projected at 7.9 strikeouts, which is the second highest mark on the site Trailing just the guy on the other side of this game. So I think Rodin is elite. I think he's in a good matchup He's at home. It is a very cool very good park for pitching. I am fully in on Carlos for Don here Gonna give him a slight edge over burns very slight edge Let's have a burns right now facing the Giants on the road not the world's worst matchup But it's also not the best. So, you know, it's kind of a middling one I'm fine enough with him to be high in him here and put him second by a hair behind Rodin Most of that is because of what burns does himself for the full season He has a 2.75 skill interactive yaw ray with a 32% strikeout ray and both those numbers are the best marks on the slate The 35% hard hit rate that burns is allowed is also better than league average If you can get strikeouts without letting up a lot of hard contact You're gonna be a very fun play for DFS and shocker. That's what birds has been for a pretty long time now We've seen the full impact of that this year where his era is 2.2. Oh, he's expected the array is 2.68 Burns has hit double digit strikeouts and six out of 17 starts, which includes two of his past four. He's going deep in games So he checks every box. I find no reason to be low on corporate burns. I can't I just you know It's I can't find anything. It's not the best matchup again, but don't really care I think that to me Burns and Rodin are the top two guys. I don't care how you order them I'll put Rodin a hair higher personally, but they're both great. So pick your poison. I like both a lot I think they're the top two guys and well worth the salaries of 11 3 and 10 9 for those two guys We do a firm of all beds in the mid-range. We've got some other guys who are pretty enticing But for the value play, I want to dip all the way down to $7,600 that's where we get Keegan Thompson and Keegan Thompson's facing the Mets and they're pretty frisky off offense Not a fun one to target But I think that Thompson has proving himself enough where we can use him here section 74 not 76 But either way Saving a lot of salary there Thompson has a new slider that he's been using for his past five starts Ben Clemens wrote a good story on that for a fan grass and started this month detailing what that pitch has been doing It's not that the slider itself is great But it helps amplify the value as other pitches, you know and I think that that is important to consider too just because the slider itself is not ideal not perfect doesn't mean we should discount the improvements he has made and It's been working beautifully so far Thompson in five starts with that slider has a 3.04 skill interactive e-array with a 31% Strikeout rate also not walking a lot of guys And I think what's important to me facing the Mets because they are a tough matchup is that He's faced the braves the red socks and then he faced the Dodgers in LA the most recent start He had nine strikeouts there. He allowed nowhere and runs across five and a third innings To me that's what allows us to use him here He has a new pitch his numbers with that new pitch are very very good And he has done that even against very tough competition. So yeah, the Mets are good They got a 110 WRC plus against righties. They don't strike out a whole lot But I have Thompson projected for six point nine strikeouts tonight That's high enough for me to feel really good about him despite the matchup here. So Thompson I'm gonna buy in I think that from a strikeout prop perspective. He's looking pretty fun I saw over four and a half at plus 130 out there today So I think you want to dabble in that as well Thompson really fun play for DFS and 74 I will probably be higher on burns and Rodan just because I think they've got Better odds of hitting double digits strikeouts, but Thompson will be in there too. He's pretty fun Now, let's talk about stacks. I said that both the pitching and stack components are fun for today Let's lay out why starting with the Braves because the Braves are facing on the ball Sanchez Making his season debut. What a welcome present it is to face the Braves your first time out Good fun for on the ball Sanchez and I will stack against him here Sanchez making his first big league start since 2020 He didn't really light it up in his rehab starts they made Three starts in triple a yet a 22% strikeout right there with a 50% fly ball rate His era was four point two six with a five point six seven exit That's pretty much in line with what Sanchez did back in 2020 in the big leagues There his skill interactive era was five point oh three his era was six point six two didn't get a lot of ground balls it's possible that he can outperform those numbers, but He's also a 38 year old who struggled the most recent time we saw him that was almost two years ago when he's coming off an injury I think that's a setup we can stack against and the Braves Great out really well tonight as a result, but in the Braves stacks. I know Eddie Rosario went deep last night Still a little bit skeptical of him as far as a component within these stacks We're up to about 10 days now Overall the hard hit raise on 33% again a lot of fly balls So that as usual that he Rosario not striking out a ton He's $2,500. I think that I have more confidence in him now given the home run last makes him as he can Smash ball when he needs to but you know if he were to sit for Adam Duvall wouldn't totally break my heart I think that Duvall at 26 would be Definitely a play for me if he were to be in there Rosario. I will use I'm just worried that the Maybe the home run last night not fully indicative of where he's at right now So Duvall Rosario guys like that at the bottom of the order of the Braves might be necessary if you're going with Rodan or Burns And I probably will use him but I don't want to like make him a core core core play given the Overall middling numbers he has had not just since he came back recently But also for the entire season before the injury as well for the second stack Let's talk here about the Astros and if you had told me a couple weeks ago that I get the Astros facing Reed Detmerce and I would be salivating because He was really struggling and I do still like this stack, but Detmerce has made me question that So let's let's talk through everything at play for this stack Detmerce has struggled since he had that no hitter and honestly the no hitter You had two strikeouts there. So it wasn't really an overpowered performance either, but it seems like When he got sent down to AAA Detmerce made some changes in the one AAA start Detmerce had 14 strikeouts That got my attention and I wanted to see if he made any changes We finally got some you know pitch data on him for his most recent start and he very much did in the first start back up Detmerce threw a slider 39.6 percent of the time. That was just his second time Throwing that pitch more than 30% this year. It's also the fourth time. He's top 20% with that pitch So he was throwing it more But he was also throwing it a lot harder a lot harder His average velocity on that slider was 86.5 miles per hour It was 83.3 for the season before he got demoted. It was also getting more dip it was less of a sweeping pitch more of a crisp breaking ball and It worked. It seems like it may have helped his other pitches too. So That's why I'm a bit hesitant to stack the Astros here But that game was against the Orioles. They did still make some hard contact and now There is tape on that pitch whereas there was not outside of triple A previously. That's why I'm still willing to stack here There is extra risk involved, but I believe the ceiling is still very good So I will stack the Astros, but keep in mind It's not as much of a slam dunk as it may have seemed before Detmerce got demoted down to triple A It does help here that the offense for the Astros is pretty good against sliders the whole they do take a hit with No, you're done Alvarez, but they're still pretty solid of the guy is still in the active roster Kyle Tucker Alex Bregman and Yuli Gouriel have the best results against sliders this year Puzzle TV and Jeremy Pena both above average as well Tucker is a lefty as is Detmerce, but Tucker still does really well against lefties Just doesn't have the same stolen base upside which does matter for sure But I think that he will be a quality tournament play here And I think the Astros still great out well despite the fact they are now riskier than they would have been previously The third stack is probably going to be the Jays. I just don't know who they're facing So we'll talk about them and things to watch So we'll spend less time on it But the Jays probably going to be a very very good stack for today given that the entire as I Astros team is Hanging out in Kansas City while the rest of the team is facing the Jays We'll touch on them later But the next stack up where we know the opposing starter is the Guardians and I do like them a decent amount here They're facing Elvin Rodriguez who is coming back up from AAA We saw Rodriguez in the majors earlier on this year and he struggled as a starter Thus the demotion back down to AAA in Forrest darts He had a 4.81 skill interactive VRA with a 51 percent hard hit rates and a lot of fly balls All of that mesh as well with the data we saw from Rodriguez in the minors based on his minor league profile That's what you would have expected in the majors I didn't see any massive deviations from Rodriguez when he went back down to the minors somewhat what we saw with Detmer's so not super enthusiastic about stacking Cleveland ever because They're not the world's most powerful team But I will be okay with them here and write them number three until we find out who the Jays start or the Jays are facing Which will probably put them above the Guardians and push the Guardians down to fourth One of the guys who is very interesting here is Nolan Jones. He is an interesting profile His ISO in AAA was 180 now, which is just it's fine. It's not great especially once you adjust to the fact it's triple A He hit more ground balls than you'd like down there But that wasn't as true last year his sample in AAA this year was not super robust about 106 or so plate appearances, so I'm not too worried about the minor league profile. It seems like he's smoking everything like his barrel rate is about like 30% He's got four barrels already in 24 plate appearance, which is stupid He strikes out more than you want but like outside of that kind of gives off like a One so to Vlad Guerrero, but nothing is that caliber of hitter because their strikeout rates matter a lot But from a you wish he lofted a bit more But at least he's hitting the crap out of the ball So when he does make contact is potentially going to do damage if it's not a home run So Jones the profile not what I was expecting I guess when I looked at his numbers, but still a guy I'll use I think that that can work Despite the strikeouts and despite a higher ground ball rate that he would ideally like Let's dig into things to watch for today. If you're doing a healthy number of entries I don't think that from her Valdez is totally off the radar he's facing the angels which You know an offense that will strike out and they did so 13 times against Valdez two starts ago He's had seven strikeouts and some others as well throwing more curve balls Which seems to be aiding his upside The familiarity given that the aster or the angels did you see Valdez? That does hurt him. This game is also on the road. She hurts him That's why I definitely go Rodan death to go birds and Thompson above him as well But we want a mid-range play or middling guy we can feel good about Valdez. I think would be the primary target there Talking about the blue jays here. I don't know who the Royal starter will be Typically I just checked Twitter, but Twitter was down Thursday morning. So I'm on my own. I got nothing It could be Jackson co are if it is the Jays might be the top stack of the night like they're up there at least They'd be on par with the braze on par with the Astros I think they'd be at least two of co are starts. I could be a triple a guy in which case They're probably good play then too. So the Jays are very likely to be a really good quality stack I just don't know who they're facing. So I'd be high on the Jays today I just check back who they're facing later on the Dodgers are kind of a tough case They're facing Dakota Hudson who has his issues but gets a lot of ground balls, which is annoying for stacking The Dodgers are a good offense and we've seen Hudson. That's some issues recently So I think I'm okay with them not actively talking you out of them But they wouldn't behind the Guardians for me, which means they're also behind the Astros are behind the braze and they're behind the Jays. So the Dodgers Fifth at best in terms of stacking despite an okay match up with Dakota Hudson. Let's go to some Dinger calls for today I was kicking myself last night that I didn't go with Jake Cronenworth I talked about how you know, I picked him earlier on this week. Didn't uh, didn't I don't want to pick him again I should have last night. So my bad. Hopefully didn't listen to me on that one You went with Cronenworth anyway, but let's run it back for today The boring one will be Jose Ramirez facing Rodriguez so much hard contact so many flat balls Ramirez very good hitter So we'll go with a Jose Ramirez as the Dinger call for the boring one for today For the fun one, I kind of want to talk about Michael Harris Michael Harris with the Braves From a BFS perspective his salary is pretty high $3,500 for a guy's probably knocking at bat all that high in the order But like I feel like he's more fun than any Rosario and then Adam Duvall Kind of wish they'd move him up in the order. He's got a 252 ISO versus right He's this year in the big leagues across 117 plate appearances a lot of hard contact Not the biggest fly ball rate, but he's kind of fun. So the salary is high, which is why I can't put him above Rosario or Duvall in terms of like DFS, but for Dinger calls, I can do it So the homerun calls for today Jose Ramirez and Michael Harris of the Braves That is all that we have here for today on the solar shot again fascinating fun Slay you got a value play we can like two legitimate studs we can feel good about some high quality stacks It's a multi entry kind of night for me. Sometimes I'm a big single entry guy Typically I am but we're gonna have some fun tonight. We'll do some multi entry and see what goes down Need a lot of points, but I think we can get a lot of points via the guys available to us today Do not forget to subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast We are not for podcast Spotify Stitcher etc. Etc. Etc. You can find us all there hit subscribe And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review If you've got any questions for me, I am on twitter at Jim Sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you your mlb DFS lineups We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Friday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network