 Welcome traders to another tickmail weekly market outlook for a week commencing the 30th of May with me Patrick Munnally. A holiday short week with the US out of action today for Memorial Day celebrations. Markets are closed in the US so data looking to Tuesday we will get the March FHA house prices. We have a 2% print there. Strong demand and limited supply are supportive but that March kickoff for rates to really slow price growth for the remainder of 2022. We'll also get May Chicago PMI looking for a 54.5% print there. May consumer confidence looking for a 103.9% versus a 107.3% print last time out. Inflation worries are starting to offset the strength in the labour market. Heading into Wednesday we will get the manufacturing PMIs looking for a 57.5% print there. Final estimate for the month we will also see April construction spending with a 0.7% print. May ISN manufacturing looking for 55 print there versus a 55.4 print last time out. Rebus momentum still evidence in manufacturing in the US. April Jolt's job openings pointing to extraordinary demand for workers and then heading into Thursday we have May ADP employment change 295k expected their jobs growth holding at robust levels. We will also get April factory orders looking for a 0.7% print there capital investment to lift over this year as inventories return to pre-pandemic levels. We'll also get durable goods looking for 0.4% print and then heading into Friday the main event of the week the non-farm payrolls looking for 329,000 there and employment rates of 3.5% and hourly earnings of 0.4% employment gains sustaining a healthy pace pushing the employment rate lower and supporting robust wages growth and then we'll round out the week with the May ISN non-manufacturing looking for a 56.9 versus a 57.1 last time out services sector does remain in robust health. Moving to the charts and the technical setup for the dollar this week I'm looking for a way for low to develop and using a symmetry swing measurement there and ideally we'd like to see test into this one over one handle watch the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side looking for a fifth wave extension with a minimum upside objective of 106.16 and really it would take a loss of the 101 handle to suggest a more meaningful high in place of the dollar and then we would target and move back down into the Trone channel support somewhere just below the 98 handle. Moving to the Eurozone and we get May CPI year-of-year print there looking for 7.5 percent print price pressures look to be broadening across the Eurozone economy heading into Wednesday we get May S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs five less but for the month 54.4 scheduled to deliver there and the April unemployment rate 6.8% last time out tight labor market really is starting to load the foundation for wages growth within the Eurozone and then we round out the week on Friday with services PMI final estimate for the month looking for a 56.3 percent print there and we'll also get April retail sales consumer rebound is likely to be limited driven by the inflation concerns and the conflict in Ukraine heading on to the charts here and looking at the technical setup I'm looking for the Euro to test trend channel resistance here just above the 108 handle watch for bearish reverse patterns there to engage on the short side initially targeting and moving to the 104.70s and if we don't find support there then we can think about a retest of the price cycle lows at 103.40s however if buyers do show up in this area I'd be anticipating a three-way corrective move to challenge the 109 handle as the next upside objective heading into the UK Tuesday we will get April net mortgage lending softer lending really now to start to be seen in the UK as the rate hikes start to take effect then heading into Wednesday we'll get the final estimates for the month manufacturing PMI looking for a 54.6 percent print there and that runs out the data in the UK this week the technical setup is interesting here we're looking for a test now of trend channel resistance and the pivot just above the 127 handle 127.10 127.20 watch for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side initially looking for a move back down into the 124 handle heading to Japan on Tuesday we will get April industrial production looking for a negative 0.2 percent print there versus a positive 0.3 percent print last time out as supply issues are really an ongoing struggle and then heading into Wednesday we get Nikkei manufacturing PMIs final estimate for the month looking for a 53.2 print there and then rounding the week out in Japan Nikkei services PMI final estimate delivered on Friday looking for a 51.7 there from a technical perspective the Donnie Yen is testing this equality objective versus the swing high 129.60s and we were looking for a 126.16 print there we're stalling just ahead of that so for me now any move back through the pivot at 127.70s I'll be looking to engage on the long side looking for a minimum upside objective fifth wave extension here into a 133 handle at this stage it will really take a loss of 123.80s to suggest again that we have a more meaningful high in place and then we start thinking about a deeper corrective move certainly 120.40s would be the next downside objective and rounding out the week down under in Australia Tuesday April dwelling approvals looking for 0.5 percent print there muted bounce really from the steep high rise led drop in in March that we saw we also get Q1 company profits looking for 4.5 percent print there Q1 business inventories 0.7 percent print anticipated rising at a slower rate really with mixed conditions due to supply chain disruptions and then heading into Wednesday we get cool object home value index looking for a negative 0.3 percent print there price corrections looked to have started really in the in the housing index there in May and then on Thursday we get April trade balance looking for a 9.3 billion print there exports and imports both expected to make modest gains rounding out the week on Friday we get April housing finances looking for a negative 1 percent print there drop in turnover already down house financing by 15 percent in value terms and that's likely to slow through into the finance approvals in coming months falls like it's more pronounced for owner occupier properties from a technical perspective the Aussie dollar has broken out of its trend tunnel resistance and so i'm looking now for a test of the pivot here and this high volume note at 72 70s anticipating there we should see some profit taking at least and a corrective pullback to retest these just below the 70 cents level as potential sport then for a three way corrected move which could see as testing up into the 74 handle at this stage it would take a loss of the 70 cents level to suggest false break and a move back down to retest the price like lows at the 68 20s and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 30th of May as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much