 What is up everybody? We're on to week three of the 2021 NFL season It's kicking off tonight with a game between The Carolina Panthers and the Houston Tech since not the best matchup we could hope for but feels kind of like a Thursday night game if If I could really draw one up especially with an injury to The Houston quarterback tie rod Taylor or to rod Taylor now Davis Mills will be taking the start For the Texans According to a fan dual sportsbook this total 43 and a half not the most fantasy friendly and we got a big spread of Seven and a half points in favor of the road team The Carolina Panthers so we're looking at roughly like an applied team total score of about like 25 to 17 kind of in that range not the best But for a single game DFS slate, it doesn't matter. We don't have any other options. We got to figure out What to do with this game? So welcome on in to the fandal NFL Q&A for the week I'm your host Brandon Gadoula. I'm the managing editor over at number fire comm you can find all of my content over at number fire Do a bunch of simulations? Start sit stuff if you're looking for season long recommendations Some pace and pass rate adjusted matchups That's all up on number fire and be sure to check out the heat check daily fantasy podcast where Jim Sonnes And I go over the entire Main slate for week three that pot is out comes out every Thursday And then we also do a recap show on Monday morning at 9 a.m Going over the relevant takeaways I think that's prior best the best piece of content that we can do because we're not really looking and projecting and Trying to figure things out from a an upcoming week standpoint, but we're looking at you know Who's getting volume who's getting relevant work? So that is always good to add in to your process. It's honestly super helpful for me Jim is going to be on the Right on after me at 4 30 to answer all your MOB questions as always but speaking of that Remember, this is a Q&A format. So get your questions in on YouTube Facebook Twitter Twitch whatever you're kind of thinking I'm primarily going to cover the DFS slate This is the first time I'm doing this I'd try to build some stuff to show everyone help answer some questions Guaranteed I'm gonna have some hiccups, but that's all right because we'll get this thing ironed out throughout the season I Think the main question and I know the main question for the DFS slate is what we do with Christian McCaffrey on Fandall that is going to dictate a lot of things But I have some numbers on historical optimal lineups and single game slates In games with like lower totals some kind of bigger, but not massive spreads. So We will figure out what to do with that Situation comment from band up very first on YouTube. Yes, I believe you were first Question from Chris Phelps Steelers versus Bengals Steelers 1 by 6 who you got? Um, I would probably also just go with Pittsburgh there, but I don't I'm not the I'm not really into what the Steelers offense has done But I do think that they would probably pick up that win For the week Chris says I like Houston's tight end Okay, so I'll just dive over to the First bit of what I wanted to go over and that was kind of some historical optimal lineup information And then we'll get to Houston's tight end Again, I'm gonna have some some hiccups here basically just kind of Trying to go split screen here because in case I get some props But I want to start off with some historical optimal lineup analysis just in games where the totals have been Under 45 or 45 or under with a spread between five and a half and ten points This covers of 2019 and 2020 season whenever we've actually had a Single game slate so that I could run an optimal lineup after the fact now one thing that kind of jumps out here And I'll bring this up a little bit closer in these game environments, we actually do see quarterbacks drop in the percentage of the frequency That they are actually the optimal lineup MVP that kind of is easy to explain if we're looking at kind of heavier spreads and we're looking at Games without a ton of points. It's really hard for a quarterback To pile up a bunch of fantasy points if there aren't numerous numerous touchdowns and if you don't run the ball It can be really difficult to Just tack up the most fandal points in a particular game and we see a little bit more of an emphasis on Running backs here. So that's going to go into the Christian McCaffrey conversation Now for tight ends we do see a slight bump up with the MVP discussion, but Not no tight ends in this game are going to be relevant in terms of an MVP Consideration set, but I do think that going back to the Christian McCaffrey situation a lot is pointing to CMC so That is going to be really hard to differentiate from I would imagine Christian McCaffrey winds up being in about 45 to 50 percent of MVP slots now if you are trying to pivot away from Christian McCaffrey The the data still says that we should be looking primarily at the quarterbacks and for me That's going to be Sam d'Arnaud. I think Sam d'Arnaud will prove to be potentially the biggest leverage spot for Tonight's game. So that's kind of the way that I'm playing it primarily For the week now or for it for the for the night. So going back to Houston's tight end I will just jump into my simulations for tonight's game Had to rerun these quickly just due to some updates for Anthony Miller But here's just just a kind of a snapshot of the potential for every player to kind of finish as the MVP on Fandall for tonight. We see Christian McCaffrey Being the slate over about 54 percent of the simulations that I ran So from this context if I if I assume that he's about 45 to 50 percent rostered at MVP We're getting some leverage here on Christian McCaffrey. So that again, just dictates a lot of Everything as for the tight ends, I'll just filter and here's the reason that you know We probably just don't apply tight ends at the MVP ever But just a whole I mean we can see them flex work with flex worthy Performances but overall just not enough percentage chance that they are finishing as the top score so we're gonna want some tight end exposure kind of overall just because of the The kind of state of the game there's not a whole lot of fantasy relevant options But just keep that in mind for tonight whenever it comes to the tight ends question from Richie Terry McClure in a debug flex PPR I Would go Terry McClure in there New sleeper tight end For this weekend's game from Nick on Facebook Nick actually so okay I'm primarily focusing here on the Thursday night game. You can head over to number fire calm and look at my start sit column That actually shows the percentage odds that every tight end who's somewhat relevant will finish as a top 12 tight end So you can kind of dig through and see who might be on the waiver wire there I'm if you're talking DFS For this week not the sneakiest maybe but Jared cook would be on the radar for me at a salary 5,300 in a very big shootout game for the Chargers and Chiefs Question from Andrew disfaro Brown get enough looks tonight to run on daily rostered. So that's a good question Farrow Brown so these these projections here are based in number fires Expectations We're not seeing a whole lot of love for Farrow Brown now at the salary of 5,500 like that's it's If if Christian McCaffrey winds up dominating this game and there's not a whole lot left over for Anybody else someone at a salary of 5,500 who puts up even five Fandle points can make an optimal lineup For me, I think we have better options Specifically with Anthony Miller at 5,500. It's it's kind of a high-risk play here tonight with Anthony Miller I'm did not play the first two weeks coming back from an injury But kind of also a healthy scratch with the injuries to Nico Collins and Danny amandola a lot should open up for Anthony Miller In this offense now how much? It can actually be opened up in a in an offense run by Davis Mills against an elite defense kind of remains to be seen But Anthony Miller at 5,500 and then for anybody who knows me this it won't be surprising Chris Conley would have some some Interest for me Conley's gonna most likely run about as many pass routes as Brandon cooks but get Maybe a fourth as many targets Brandon cooks his dominated targets for Houston so far Chris Conley Kind of stepped into a bigger role once the injuries hit just not a whole lot of volume So that kind of does narrow things down and very few guys even profile for somewhat relevant MVP odds and that does dictate things because We got to figure out our flexed positions But we also need to figure out what we're doing again with with Christian McCaffrey Seen if we want might want to pivot any other ways at MVP So Brandon cooks and DJ Moore make a lot of sense as pivots away from McCaffrey if we're not trying to play Sam Darnold but again Darnold easily the best pivot away from McCaffrey for tonight Question from Brent picked to McClearn lamb and Anderson McClearn and lamb Question from DJ Anthony Miller finishes with the most catches yards for Houston so again I just touched on Miller I would think it's a stretch that he does that just because of Brandon cooks and the role he has had Pull up some stats here Brandon cooks is run 95% of the routes for Houston He's also got a 35% target share 54% of the teams air yards I'll filter this down just to Houston to kind of get a feel for again Anthony Miller is not gonna His role is not going to be any it's not really predictable What they're gonna do with him? But you see the target shares for everyone else just very low overall So it's kind of hard to get Interested in loading up on anyone other than Brandon cooks again. I would have imagined that Chris Conley is The safest bet to run a bunch of routes He can get a high a dot. He just also doesn't he's never really flashed the dropside that I would like for him to do As a Chris Conley fan, but I would say Anthony Miller very very much in play as that secondary option behind Brandon cooks among the skill players for Houston Thoughts on Brandon's illustrious. I'll go back over To the stats here Flip over to Carolina. I mean so What it's one it's important to remember that we can get cute with single-game slates And and really try to find someone who is low salaried What's what's illustrated here and what what's kind of his outlook? So not a whole lot there 2.3 was his median expectation at 7000 the same salary as Chris Conley That's a little bit difficult to get too Excited about but we do see see one and a half targets Just a 4.4 percent target share. I mean, I know you had that touchdown. I would probably say Not really any interest aside for maybe sprinkles that really make your lineups work. But again We have Chris Conley and we also have Anthony Miller here, so I'll filter this by guys at that salary or lower Just to kind of get a feel For the median expectations, it's gonna be Conley Miller Jordan Aikens Andre Roberts Truba Hubbard's kind of interesting if we really think this is a route You can sometimes see the double running back stack if you know Christian McCaffrey dominates and then bring in Hubbard but Zostra, I think really If you're building maybe five or ten lineups, I wouldn't get there myself if you're building a hundred and fifty Sure, but I haven't seen enough from him to get too excited there Jim Sonnis St. Jim Sands Sorry if I'm mispronouncing that put Conley at MVP coward, you know, I would I've done it in the past That's not a lie. It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. I know Jim's trolling me here, but Even if we're trying to differentiate at MVP we Have like the easiest leverage just because Christian McCaffrey is going to be so Crazy chalky at MVP And again, Sam Darnold again just makes sense here if we go back to the optimals again Even though in these lower total games Quarterbacks are a little bit less likely to finish in the optimal. They're still 41 percent They're still the most likely position now This doesn't account for team context and just in this specific instance Christian McCaffrey is not 33 percent likely to finish In this kind of game as the MVP I've met 54.3 percent to finish So like 20 percentage points different there, but again if you want to differentiate we can go to Sam Darnold We can go to Brandon cooks with that immense target share and we can go to DJ Moore as well I'm not gonna use Davis Mills Just because this is a tall order for Davis Mills to come in and put up a slate leading Fandall performance against a defense that has been really really strong to start the season It's gonna be Brandon cooks and DJ Moore if I don't go with Donald or McCaffrey So the reason for DJ Moore That I that I like what I'm seeing from him is That he's at The nine and a half targets per game. That's a 28 percent target share 34 percent of the team's area is bees also getting downfield work and downfield targets are very valuable for receivers Just passing he's got one red zone target one end zone target thus far Robbie Anderson Would be a potential option But the sheer target share is not enough of the a dot is crazy the average depth of target the downfield targets are there But the reason that you would kind of play Robbie Anderson in your MVP slot tonight is you think this game? Isn't that high scoring which is kind of fair, but Robbie Anderson is probably going to need a long touchdown And with the volume that we've seen and especially if Carolina doesn't have to throw the ball a lot He's gonna need a big kind of he's gonna need multiple big plays or an Kind of unpredictable like not even unpredictable, but like it is really hard to talk yourself into having Robbie Anderson just Get his volume boosted in this game script So I'm not that interested myself and Robbie Anderson at an MVP. I'm gonna limit my exposure there To those top four at MVP Kyle was asking how should we view the Houston running backs tonight? So that's a good question again Seven and a half point underdogs with a low total That's a little bit tricky in this sense And I should have probably included positions just so I could filter a little more easily but We would what we would Most likely prefer David Johnson from a game script standpoint again I knew I was gonna have some some some hiccups here I'm just trying to throw all this together make sure my bases are covered but the 42% route rate is pretty strong Phillip Lindsay 20% Mark Ingram 13% The snaps for David Johnson about 34% I know Mark Ingram has had the better role But this doesn't really profile as a game where Mark Ingram should be overly impactful so if I would if I was planning on rostering a Houston running back, it's going to be David Johnson and that's a good That's a good kind of talking point here where if you're still if you're just starting to build single-game lineups You want to make sure that all of your lineups Make sense if you're running through an optimizer, I would still recommend going through The results of those and making sure you can kind of tell yourself the story of how that becomes the best lineup of the night if We're seeing Mark Ingram in some optimized lineups paired with let's say Like Numerous Panthers that's probably not gonna kind of work out because The only path for that is that Mark Ingram dominates and they're able to run the ball and then all of the production Just has to come from volume for the Panthers. The path for that happening seems very very slight So I'm leaning with David Johnson if I'm going with any of the Houston running backs Aaron says get the real mod in here kick. Yeah, I get Jim out of here Jim just causing trouble which is typical Aaron also says if everyone avoids mills doesn't it make just make sense to play Houston's running backs So here's kind of the issue with that is Houston's running backs don't have a massive ceiling Anecdotally, I don't know what they're off the top of their head off top of my head what their MVP or even flex odds are I should throw in team here second foot So I'm taking some notes the first time I've run through this usually I'm just on the PGA show here And I got all that kind of figured out, but you know, obviously we have Christian McCaffrey, but The the salary for Mark Ingram makes it difficult Number fire simulations or projections do like Mark Ingram As the baseline But for me the path for Ingram to be that relevant again Just seems a little bit more narrow. So again, if you're asking if everyone avoids mills Just play the Houston running backs The odds that these guys really get to like 12 fandal points is kind of small unless they score and for me I would bank on David Johnson kind of scoring From a negative script a perspective or possibly on a check down something like that You know, we could see Mark and so the kind of the other other part to that question is if If Houston tries to hide Davis mills and just hand the ball off a lot There's gonna be some volume, but carries alone don't really add up to a lot of fandal points Mark Ingram could have 18 carries for 60 yards and David Johnson in negative game script could have, you know, four or five targets for 30 yards maybe get that touchdown. So like it's it's we we can't just chase kind of volume without any targets for running back So I'm kind of out on Houston's running backs aside from David Johnson That's kind of a way that I'm playing it for tonight Dre asks, do you think there's a chance to risk we get to play at quarterback? Um, I mean it's it's possible but that's kind of That's some galaxy brain stuff which which I typically love especially if you're playing You know, if you're locking in Christian McCaffrey, you wouldn't find you want to find ways Sorry, I should clarify locking in Christian McCaffrey at MVP It's gonna be hard to build any lineups where Christian McCaffrey is not in those It's gonna take a very specific an injury or a very specific game script where Christian McCaffrey just Probably is limited to like 80 total yards doesn't score and some touchdowns just go elsewhere. That's about it I don't think you really even need to play Driscoll though because We have ways to differentiate again. I think David Johnson And then possibly even kickers in this spot We could see kickers be a little bit more relevant although I do think that their rate goes down in optimals in this kind of sample. So yeah That's a little bit tough But still one out of four one out of four optimals does include a kicker. I I just I personally won't get to Jeff Driscoll, but I kind of understand it For him to play and be relevant enough. He's gonna have to come in pretty early because he's also gonna play pretty difficult defense so Aaron says Ingram's Fandle salary way too high. I agree with that especially for the reasons That I talked about with just minimal past catching past catching just matters Unless we're talking a very positive game script in a single game slate So McCaffrey has the the rushing and he'll also have the receiving role I know I've talked about him a ton But you know, it really does come down to trying to figure out how we value McCaffrey whether you're going to be overweight on him or underweight on him and what I mean by that is Try to figure out where you think the public will land on Christian McCaffrey. It will just limit it to MVP exposure If you think he's on half of all lineups at MVP Do you want to play him in 30% of your MVP lineups or in 70% So you can be overweight or underweight relative to the public now You can always be about even you're also not going to you know guess exactly correctly what his popularity is He might get up to like 60 or 70 percent. Um, we don't usually see that a lot with running backs But I could see it in this situation Um, you can you could click the lock button On McCaffrey hit MVP. I think that's justifiable Then maybe you're more open to playing some backup quarterbacks, but Uh for me, it's going to be um a night where I'm overweight on Christian McCaffrey Um at MVP But really then if I'm doing that making sure that I still get my sam darnold MVP lineups And then probably just due to sheer nature of not being able to play Uh tons of random cooks or dg more in in MVP lineups Just maybe nixing them all together and hoping that they don't erupt for tonight Okay, I think I'm all caught up with questions here um So I kind of want to at least dig in to uh davis mills and what we saw From him in week two, um the eight for 18 for 102 yards. I know this is probably really small for everyone but um A nice 11 yard a dot, uh, nfl average is around 7.8, which is around where sam darnold is Um, just the expected points for drop back not particularly good. Um, davis mills also was a highly recruited prospect coming out um, just never really took the the The leap, um, whenever he was given that, uh, you know full season um in college uh, so I think that He's a he's just tough to justify even if he's going to be Unpopular we're looking at a really difficult matchup. So um for me davis mill is not really someone that i'm considering Uh question from dj who has more yards cooks or more? Um, okay, so i I'll just pull up number fires baseline projections here um for this And i'll let you know what so it's about that even um for cooks and more if I had to bet It would be Brandon cooks surely due to expected volume We're projecting him for about You know half a target more uh than dj more. Um, I know that the the matchups incredibly difficult But the target share for him is just immense now. I love dj more too But if I had to pick one to lead in yardage, it's it's going to be Brandon cooks because there's Again, you got to think about like the paths to certain things happening The paths to Brandon cooks Maybe not posting a big yardage output is you know, they're a pass to that because it's a tough matchup The path for him not to be targeted very often Whenever they have virtually nobody else to throw to Uh, that seems a little bit less likely. So if I had to pick one straight up, it's going to be uh, Brandon cooks um for tonight for the most yards Between he and dj more. Okay. Um Sam darnold though, uh, the reason that I kind of like him For the mvp kind of pivot away from christian mccaffrey Uh, just that it's a promising matchup for him overall. Houston's defense has kind of started out. Okay Uh, but I wouldn't expect that to linger too much. Um, the 292 yards um From him a pretty like a decent enough a dot and just a lot of weapons to throw to and The thing to kind of keep in mind With carolina here Is I talked about brandon cooks having a crazy Uh target market share aside from dj more who has Like his three-year average of touchdown expectation is crazy low Like he should have way more touchdowns than he does that could start to speak to just Who he is we see that with like julio jones is kind of strange for how good they are. Um but if if Sam darnold throws for three touchdowns And dj more doesn't get one and one does go to brandon zelstra or you know And then one to robbie anderson one maybe to terrace marshal who they schemed up some plays for Um already early on in the season. That's kind of the path to sam darnold being the mvp Where christian mccaffrey isn't but also no receiver has a massive Uh A massive amount of upside. Um by comparison question from larry Would you start kirk agalore or pascal this week? I would start christian kirk I know his target shares are kind of just in line with everyone else in that offense But it's a much better offensive situation for me Not gonna really want to have a whole lot of interest in Uh that uh indian apless offense. So for me, it's pretty easily christian kirk I feel pretty good. Um about that For the weekend again. I do have uh on number fire Some start set simulations overall Um, and it shows it kind of digs into every relevant play kind of shows their baseline expectations for getting into the top 12 or top 24 For the week at their at their positions um, so I think I pretty much covered like everything I have from a dfs standpoint So i'm gonna kick it over to Jim's honest and we are gonna get the MLB portion of the show Going uh, so question for you, uh, you Yell to me today viciously Because I had talked about how the fact that I had sprained both my ankles previously. Yes, you were like, yes, you said this before Did you know that brandon zillstra played in that game? I was playing against brandon zillstra new london spicer football up in northern minnesota at the metrodome Uh, are you from minnesota? Yeah. Well, yeah. Yeah, sure you betcha that there minnesota and uh, he was in that game I'm pretty sure he was like a freshman or a sophomore. I think his brother was actually like the more relevant dude I don't I think his brother's in sort of the j but like uh, brandon zillstra was in that game so So therefore your chris connelly is my brandon zillstra because like he's the only guy who makes me feel like I'm not totally washed like I could still be an nfl player if I tried Because brandon zillstra is there I Think we just got a new series idea where you try to make an nfl roster out of Out of me Making like what position though like well, you said you thought you could make an nfl roster I I would die like there is a good chance of death You just if I just said you could make no, I said I can pretend I can dream that I can it's i'm actually going to like I'm like six inches too short. I am like in an awkward like linebacker weight, but also not a linebacker physique like It's not going to go well If this happens, I just think that I want that dream to exist and you're killing that dream I'm trying to I'm just here to kill those dreams See joey's killing the dreams too. It's just rude like rude across the board brandon get out of here Go fill out some stupid lineups a stupid sam darman your stupid mvp slot I'll put brandon zillstra at mvp and we'll see who wins. Please do. I won't anyway That's brandon. Good luck brandon. Good luck tonight and good luck this weekend. Good luck to you All right, let's move now into our mlb q and a for today taking a look at the main slate for tonight And it's not the best main slate by any means So if you want to have some lingering nfl questions you want to drop in the chat I don't care. That's fine. We can we can be a bit more disorganized for today to talk about mlb dfs The reason I am not super enthusiastic about this slate is it is because it is a four game slate for tonight over on fandall It's not bad as long as we get aeronola on this slate because Right now there are two pictures. I want to use those guys are aeronola and lance mccullars Just don't know the weather for nola if we go over here to dark sky weather and check out what it says there It says there's rain in philadelphia to start the good thing The saving grace here is that our guy kevin roth over on rhodo grinders has said that it looks like the rain should be moving out By some points in that which means that they're patient they can play this game The other good thing of that based on that forecast by kevin is it means we're probably not going to get a mid game delay That's always the concern for pitchers because if we get a delay in the middle of that game And aeronola's in the mound He might not warm back up. He might not come back out if the delay is too long So to me, I think this does set up pretty well This game is one of the first ones to lock on this slate. I think that is a good thing for tonight So I feel better about aeronola now than I did this morning So I think that's the context through which I'm viewing tonight. I feel better about the way Uh the way that works. So I do think that aeronola Feeling a little bit more comfortable over the way that looks for today Let's talk to aeron first over on youtube is the philadelphia game on for tonight as of now. Yes, and again Feeling better about it. We'll see feeling good for right now aeron kevin on rhodo grinders does do an update around 5 30 or so So uh follow at kevin roth wx on twitter see what he says at 5 30, but right now aeron i am okay Starting to fill out lineups under the assumption that aeronola is good to go That's the way I'd phrase that dj says white socks clinched already Uh dj the good thing is so i'm a twins fan as brandon mentioned, you know from minnesota I am a twins fan which means I grew up hating the white socks, but my wife is a white socks fan so Her dad will text me saying it's a family victory. Well, that was when the twins were winning He would say it's a family victory But now I get to say family victory when the white socks wins It's a family divisional win for the white socks, uh for the for the saunas powers household household So we're good to go which helps a lot William do we think philadelphia pittsburgh will play I think so for right now leaning? Yes, william I think we should be good to go my level of confidence in that I would say is I I think like I'm feeling and this is not scientific. This is just like my sentiment. I'm thinking 80 percent chance. We're good to go. I was going to 70. I think it's 80 percent chance We're good to go. William. So like if you're filling out lineups tonight or like right now I would say you should be okay, william putting nola in there tentatively then checking back on the forecast later on Let's talk to erin. He says the toronto minnesota game is going over. Let's check out the total for that game Nine and a half. I expect the blue jays to Do a lot of work towards that let's check out the twins versus steven mats mats low strikeout rate Not the best bad at ball data. I could see that it is a little high at nine and a half to begin with So i'm not taking the over myself, but erin not going to talk you out of that one I think that's uh, we're good to go there savatar asking for thoughts on jeff driscoll He means these Cincinnati Bengals like six string wide receiver from back in the day. There was a time where He got switched to wide receiver during the preseason. He got released and then became like starter for an nfl team at quarterback and All I wanted to do was use defenses against him didn't work a lot of times because he would like do these crazy scrambles and stuff like that But uh, no, thanks dj for a survivor league Should I stay with the broncos from my pick to win this week or should I go to a different team? I've already used arizona and buffalo so the broncos What are the odds they're favored by ten against the team this year? Um Probably not that high. I wouldn't think they'll be favored by ten very often this year They are at home Relatively healthy. I know jerry judy is not fully healthy right now and he won't be playing But I think the broncos are probably a pretty solid pick dj because they've got two Matches of the cheese to match for the chargers to with the raiders I think the broncos are probably a pretty good pick there and I'd be comfortable going with them For right now erin. How many home runs in minnesota tonight? Okay, let's make a number here I think that the jays are in a good spot against panada. So that helps Byron buxton might not play which lowers the projected home run total by like six ish home runs or so so I would say Two and a half erin I mean, I'd probably take the under on that but let's say two and a half home runs tonight between the twins and the jays Willi, do you think minnesota will go under rostered? I would guess that they would but i'm also not as interested in them because matt's As generally a good contact suppression. He has not had that as much recently the Data I have here from matt's is his past eight starts that fewer sliders and more change ups The hard hit rate is up to 39% fly ball rate is up to 37% You know league averages those are both like a tiny bit above average the fly ball rates actually a bit above average so That's interesting. Let's check out what the results have been for matt's in this time because Especially in like small samples sometimes robbie ray is not even on this slate. This is ridiculous I don't know why it always goes the wrong one. Well, whatever steven matt's. Okay. We'll look at his past eight starts With that slider usage being down I don't want to count down eights. We're gonna go here to go to the game log go to pitch type Okay, so Slider usage way down So let's start here on august 4th Go there boop Put in the dashboard. That's nine starts. Okay. So whatever in that time 2.5. Oh e r. A That is in addition to the good or decent peripherals The twins when they faced him last week, let's see what the bad a ball data was in that game Did put the ball in the air did get two barrels did have a 47 hard hit rates The swing and strike rate was 10.4 percent. That's actually not terrible for the twins in that game and now they get him in minnesota So I don't think they're off the map william, but I would say that They're not Super high for me. I would say the top stacks me for today are the blue jays one I think the rangers are too. I know they're terrible terrible terrible terrible, but I think they're number two Honestly, the twins might be three Maybe I'm just higher on them than I thought I was actually the fillies are up there, too I know they've been terrible whatever I don't really want to go there, but like I might have to it's a small slate So the twins are third or fourth for me. So They might not wind up Flying into the radar just because people don't have a lot of other places to go Check out the heat map is saying here. See the implied totals and see what we can expect Popular stacks to be for today. I think the jays have to be first Yeah, jays first then fillies then astros against cob Maybe the twins will so yeah, I think there's a chance they will william I'm talking myself into them as we go along here, but we'll see. I think that the twins are okay Let's talk to kyle. Uh thinking about stacking both sides the baltimore texas game But it makes my stomach a little sick. Don't blame you. Don't blame you. I do think that texas is a good stack I also Wanted to vomit kyle when I realized that I had to stack them They're facing zack lauther lauther You know, he's made three starts the data in those three starts not super Inspiring I would say is the word there If you expanded to look at uh when he was in the bullpen when he was in the miners That's also not super inspiring. So although the rangers are a team I've targeted a couple pictures with lefties against this week I do still think that they're an okay stack for today and they're probably the number two stack behind the jays They do have a lot of value. Let's check out. Um The lineup here for texas see if it is out yet. It is indeed. Okay, so I like Garcia I like ybonyas. I like peter's batting down the seventh. I think that's fine Then we're deciding. Do we chase the uptick recently for kind of philepha? Do we check out? Uh, solak, how do we handle that? But I do think that They're okay. I think as long as we're willing to be selective kyle. I think that the Rangers great out well orils are facing Glenn auto autos had really bad results in the majors, but his peripherals are a healthy amount better. Let's pull up This over here. It's not just the peripherals too. Like he's actually you look at the Projection systems what they say about glen auto. They're actually reasonably optimistic. I would say that's the way I'd phrase that The bat hasn't as a 3.99 er a steamer as 4.57. Those numbers aren't too bad 3.83 skill interactive er a across four starts 25 strikeout rate. Now that strikeout rate Pretty likely to come down check out his csw rate csw rate is 28.3 percent actually around league average That's been pretty good. He's been getting a lot of cold strikes via probably, you know fooling some dudes That's good. I would say that er a for auto will probably come down as a sample expands so to me I think that um I think baltimore is fine. I prefer the ranges between the two I think that if you want to make the assumption that auto's struggles continue, you can definitely feel good about baltimore I think that I'll just put them lower because the peripherals are good The projection systems do like auto as well. I think there is enough there where Okay, being a little bit lower on the orials for today Let's talk to D. Oh, sorry Brandon says teddy bridge water revenge game for the jets versus the broncos We have a teddy bridge water revenge game a logan thomas revenge game is this week Try to remember if there any other big ones a jack uh jack cohen revenge game for notar dame wisconsin I think that's probably the big one Uh biggest one even bigger than teddy if you can believe that I think that's probably the uh Biggest one of this week dj. Why doesn't fando let you play the second even a doubleheader in the main slate You may want to but I don't because they're a they're a headache Not only are they just seven innings, which is stupid. I hate seven in games like that's awful limits the volume but also The line-ups don't come out as soon like You're not going to know who's playing before lock and I hate that so You might like that dj, but I think it's a massive massive headache and I want no part of it So personally, I'm glad they don't do that obviously like, you know Bias alert that I have like fan dual logos all behind me But like I actually like it personally and that's not me You know saying this because their logo is behind me to say because I actually think I hate second games doubleheaders Like when they used to have those games in the slate when there were nine innings I hated it hate it hate it hate it. So I'm glad they don't do that anymore. Let's talk to william What uh jays do you deem to be priorities for today? So with nola being on the slate if we assume that the weather forecast holds we can use him It means I don't need to be as Value huntie if that's a word slash phrase As I was before so although i'm still going to be on Alejandro Kirk put him in there And if gritchick plays I'll be there. I don't know if he'll play he might not he's been projected line up like I'm not totally sold that'll be the case if we use Kirk and gritchick that gets me to 3467 I can go to vlad at third base And let's put tail scar in there above semian and bachette Check out their numbers versus righties to make sure that's not totally off base Uh with regards to tail scar specifically relative to semian and bachette That's kind of the main decision point for me. I've been a little bit worried about springer with the uh with the knee stuff recently Uh, oh i'm on the wrong team. Why don't you go to Tampa bay? That's right there. That's why click the wrong team. Okay Okay, so semians at a 285 iso springer 289 tail scar 178 bachette at 161 Pretty sure tail scar has been hitting the ball pretty well recently Maybe I should just go semian and fill second base and get that out of the way Let's see that Okay He is 4100. Woof Good job All right 3050 left. I can make work. So I guess I would go with semian over tail scar. I just like I really respect tail scar as a hitter. So I that's why I was my default was to go towards him But I think this is a pretty good four player stack. We don't keep ritchick. That's a bummer But we can't go to jake lamb a bit lower in the order. He should be in there for today So we can do that does lock up because you can't use kirk Vlad and lamb without locking up your catcher or your Utility spot, but I think that's worth it for tonight. So I don't mind this one Don't mind getting tail scar in there. Don't mind gritchick if I had to like make out a default stack though I would say if we get gritchick in there This would be my default stack of the blue jays under the assumption. I am using Nola for tonight. Let's see. I get dj's home run calls. He's got jimai jones We got Byron bucks and again bucks didn't might not play so keep an eye on that So he's got a foot injury miss last night kepler double dong yesterday despite the awful weather some x kepler going deep Tyler stevenson and host a burrero. Also, I'm considering jimai jones stevenson or burrero for my utility slots. Who do you think I should take? Okay, let's go oopsies He's been sixth. Okay um Burrero He's not on the main slate. So I can't talk about him Stevenson's not either. So they're not on the main slate for uh for fandom. So I've not researched that game The reds tend to struggle quite a bit against lefty. Stevenson is good against lefties. So that's that's one positive there I would say those options. I'd probably be prioritizing Stevenson like dj. I'm assuming you're playing like a 640 slate I I would say Stevenson is a better option of those three But jones is the one who is on the main slate. So I guess you go there. I don't really want to use him against auto But it's fine. I think that would work Um, Steve, why aren't any nfl games with entry fees of 05 to 25 cents? I would check. I guess i'm kind of surprised that there aren't steve So you can like if you go to the lobby you can toggle it down and make the entry fee as low as you want And see what's there at least tinker around if that's you there. I'm sorry that there are I obviously have no control over that but like, you know, I think that there would be Um, dj's buxton is in there by the way. Okay. So I missed the twins lineup It's right there. It's been in the whole time and I just missed it my bad Thank you dj for pointing that out buxton's in there Polanka's in there donaldson garver's back. Okay What's garver's out? Garve sauce $2,500. Okay All right, he played one game three hit game for mitch garver his first game back facing a lefty $2,500 I kind of don't hate mitch garver as a one-off. I think that's pretty fun Maybe I should boost that uh, that that home run projection for twins blue jay So when I thought that buxton might not play didn't know about garver being in there I mean, I guess you've been back for a bit now, but like still um It was two and a half before I will say 13 and a half home runs for twins versus blue jay's for tonight now that I know that buxton and garver are both in there So 13 and a half home runs was the 16 13 and a half home runs the projection for twins versus the home run projection For twins versus blue jays for today One guy we have not yet discussed on this main slate is lance mccullers checking in at $10,200 I've got him number two behind nola and if nola can't go I do feel good about mccullers, you know building around him kind of making him my like Commitment picture for today mccullers in his past 10 stars more curve balls is a 3.82 skill interactive er a 27 strikeout rates really good bad at ball data The downside is he is walking a lot of guys what helps there is that the angels don't walk a whole lot They've been honestly They're often to struggle a lot in the second half. So I think I think that um I think mccullers is a pretty solid number two option I wish he wouldn't walk as many guys, but the good thing is he got super deep into games 111 pitches is last time out nola doesn't right now. I think I think they're trying to keep him from getting too deep in the order for a third time because they've been He's not gone more than 22 batters faced I think since that padres game maybe is the one after that or something like that It's been a while since we saw nola go deep in a game. So even with nola being available I wouldn't hate putting mccullers above him for today just because I feel better about mccullers Going super deep in the game Don't like his effectiveness while he's out there as much as I like nola's don't like his match up Don't like that. He's on the road, but length matters a lot. So I do think that mccullers pretty justifiable over nola again straight up I prefer nola, but I would not hate you I would not hate on you for putting mccullers number one And like for single entry given that nola the weather seems okay given that he's facing the pirates I think it's not a terrible idea in single entry to go on the colors over nola paying up to be contrarian and I think that's a not a terrible idea for today Aaron says now you're talking jim for the home run projection. I like 13 and a half Do you want the over or the under erin? I think I might have put it too low So if you want the over, I think that's fair. I can understand that but figure at least ask So let me know if you want over under 13 and a half for you erin Okay, dj. Do you think marwin glanzala's martin maldenato? Phil gosselin or jack mayfield goes yard tonight. Don't like the angels guys against mccullers because mccullers Again, good bad at ball. They know this is over his past 10 starts 34 hard hit rate with a 25 fly ball rate That Is good for dinger prevention So I wouldn't look at the angels guys for home runs just because mccullers has been so good in that regard As far as the asterisks guys facing alex cob, let's see what alex cob has done since he came back He's only had one start Went 66 pitches. I'm pretty sure his velocity was good in that one start though. If I recall correctly Let's just check this out here Two hits and two walks five strikeouts in that first game back for alex cob I must click the wrong part Okay Let's pull up the pitch type in that game More force emers fewer sinkers. That's a good thing. We always hate sinkers. That's good Splitter velo and sinker velo splitter velo is actually up a bit sinker velo up Curve ball velocity up. That's why I pulled the past five starts for Cobb in that time. Let's check out the results here quickly It's actually pitched pretty well Good for him. That's good. I'm glad to see alex cob do well the injuries have been annoying so Glad to see him faring. Well, I don't really want to go um I don't really want to Get into too many astros guys because I think that that cob is pretty good. I think if you're looking for some homers Trying to identify guys who might go deep I might look at other games just because both cob and macaquers do a good enough job Did you say that I just thought may feel will go deep against his former team? Yeah, I love revenge games dj big time in on those for sure and Abraham toro is not facing tonight, but like Abraham toro is like a revenge game deity with the number of times he dung against the astros. So if anyone Is going to be you know Close to revenge games to be someone tied to the astros in some way. So I think that uh, I get a dj I'm always in on a good revenge game, but not for may feel for me personally other stuff to note here for today again I think that um Let's actually just build that a range of stack because why not let's do it with macaquers in there Let's put peters in there Let's put other least garcia in there and Hmm Let's put a banyas in there that and third take that And at second base if we do that we're up to 32 40 left. That's not too bad So we're decided between we want to go with kinder falefa. Let's see if he's been doing that with just steels Or if it's been with some power because I know he's been playing he's been putting up good totals recently um Not a lot of power yet Mostly via steels that he's had the upside, but he's done well overall Kind of encouraging there Okay, uh tivaris not the biggest power guy Let's check out nix solak against lefties See what he's what he's doing Wouldn't mind going to solak baton 6th right in front of peters Okay, solak 110 iso not ideal. See what he's been doing overall here recently Because if he's just been you know, uh Front loaded a bit. All right Let's go to stack cast on solak And let's should go since the start of september Okay 32 hard to rate. That's not super good. So I feel like um, maybe not solak Maybe not. I don't know. So dj asked about jonaheim I thought about him too did think about that not gonna lie. Um 209 iso versus lefties across 72 plate appearances. That's actually a pretty decent sample. So Actually, dj, why not? Let's do it. Let's let's ride a jonaheim for today Um, I think he's 20. Yeah 23 I don't mind that honestly I think that's pretty fun It gets you more flexibility for your jays if you want to stack them in there So, yeah, I think jonaheim works. Let's do it dj. Let's ride with jonaheim dj says, uh, nick gordon was sick in succubes He had That that first win game He had like an oppo taco that just got over the the netting Out there and I was pretty impressed like i'm not Like, uh, I haven't been super sold to nick gordon so far, but like, you know played pretty well there I'll take that it's good to see the young guys playing like joe ryan was sick So, uh, I think I just care about the the young dudes playing well. They've done that for me. That's all I ask So, uh more nick gordon more joe ryan. Let's get uh, just get the young dudes churnin up there in minnesota That is all that we have here for today on the fan dual live q&a We'll wrap up the week next or tomorrow. I was gonna say next day. That's a very stupid phrase We'll wrap up the week tomorrow with our snake draft with myself brandon gedula and jj. Zachary sin That is at 4 p.m. We'll have the mlb q&a following at 4 30 here is the Starting pitcher slate for tomorrow in case you want a head start on that We'll be back here again 4 30 tomorrow to break down that Big thank you to brandon gedula for the lead in talking about thursday net football follow brain on twitter at gedula 13 As he mentioned our dfs heat check podcast for week number three already posted breaking down our thoughts on the main slate with thoughts on Game stacks position by position breakdown some key process things to help influence things and more fine than that by searching for The number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast big Thank you to joy aflech our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you joy as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in for today Good luck to you tonight with your single game slates with your main slates on for mlb And everything else. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow. 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