 The Power Trading Hour with your host David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now David White. And welcome to another excellent edition of The Power Trading Hour. As always we come to you at the appointed time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we have going on today? Well, a few things. One, I don't have a lot of these on my list, but first options continue to point to a stronger expiration. And I'm suspecting that we have maybe 160, 180, maybe 200 points higher in the S&P cash before expiration on the 21st. Tomorrow we go delta neutral in the market. That means we're probably going to have a little bit more volatility as option market makers add and subtract stuff. My belief is that any close above 3636 will see a rocket and will probably have most of those winnings in the next few days. We have far too many shorts as far as I can tell. We have far too many self-serving downgrades. People telling us that it's the end of the world. We've got Uber and Lyft today. Last time I looked they were down about 7% or 8%. Now there's a lot of reasons none of them hold any water for Uber and Lyft actually facing real regulation. In my book I don't think that either that you really could get a presidential edict to make this happen. The Supreme Court's done nothing, but in the last five years limit the scope of bureaucratic decisions not expand them. This would be a rather large expansion of it. My guess is even if someone tried to push it in the government in the Labor Department it would be stayed almost instantaneously and dragged through the courts for years to come still not being enforced. I just don't see anything that makes me believe that the courts wouldn't hold that up. And eventually I'd say 90% chance of them not allowing it to go through. They've been really on the side of saying that Congress better be passing these big questions and not handing them off to unelected bureaucrats. As we said we've got Delta Neutral tomorrow earnings really in a big way starting on Thursday. I've got to get my little list up because I don't have them right here. So I will get that. There we go. So what do we have? On Thursday we've got Delta Airlines, Wells Fargo, Walgreens, Domino's, Taiwan Semi-Connector. That's probably the big one for the semis and probably will color what we have on Thursday and Friday. But we also have Fastenall. Probably not a big one but it's nuts and bolts and it tells you what's going on here in the United States. It's kind of like looking at international paper that gives you a good idea about what's going on on the industrial side of the market. On Friday we go to JP Morgan, City Bank, Morgan Stanley, PNC. So we'll have a real test of some of the bigger broker dealer bank kind of folk on Friday. Microsoft has a little dog and pony tomorrow. I don't know how much that's going to do for them. Nvidia products starting to hit the shelf now and of course we've got Amazon with their Prime Day. I never can remember it being that big of a deal. I've still not been able to buy anything off their Prime deal that I wanted but what else is going on? The CNBC is always good at flogging that horse on it for an easy day of news and that's kind of it. We've got the monthly options expiration into the 21st and as we've gone along over yesterday and today those options have just affirmed in that area of about 380 on the spies. So yeah, could we have 180 points higher, maybe 200 points higher by the 21st? It could and that could just be short covering. As we said before, I said yesterday I wasn't very bearish coming into this morning. We had very light volume. We didn't even get 10 billion shares yesterday on the CBOE tape and we needed something like in the neighborhood of 18 billion. We did have and we talked about it a great deal. The bond market closed yesterday. We had a lot of self-serving articles on that. Then I get into the TLT which is actually starting to look like a big false breakdown in the market. We needed 100 and I think it was 89 cents for the previous low and we are just at that now, 165. So we are very close to popping right back in. You didn't have a lot of volume that did kind of do it. You don't need much more to get back into the trading range. Am I a bond bull here? Not really, but could you bounce back up to maybe 106 or 107 and still be in a downtrend? I think you could, but let's say that takes a week or 10 days and gets us through expiration. I think we could have a fairly nice countertrend rally in the market. 877-927-6648, call me, tell me why I'm all wet or why you agree with me or that you have a third option. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. You can always put a message in the den and we'll be looking at that. So that's some of it. Let's do a little history. We'll get that through and then we'll move on to a lot of charts and we're going to look at them for lighter volume yesterday. On this day in 1887, Mr. Felt is granted the second or two patents on is Comptometer, the first practical and commercially successful key driven mechanical calculator. Various Comptometers were in continuous production from 1887 to the mid 1970s. And if you've ever seen one of these pieces of incredible, I'm going to just call them art of mechanical art. Pretty interesting. Of course, 1972 comes along, Intel and some others make the first integrated circuit designed to replace these within two years. Almost all of them were bankrupt within four years. All of them were bankrupt. It took a company like Commodore, who was big in this field, into the computer industry by 1980. 877-927-6648. In inflation, we are purchasing powers eroded, there's no better place to protect your harder and money than in gold. 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A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. He has 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Still up on the S&P cash today after being down. NASDAQ continues to be the weak sister Dow up 273. So we're seeing a little bit of weakness, but we've seen this the last few days. That is that everybody wants to buy the lows, no one wants to buy the breakout, but my guess is that we're probably going to have that breakout in the next 24 hours, 877-927-6648. Okay, what else do we have going on? Anyway, talked about the TLT, that's probably one of the bigger things you want to keep your eye on if that gets back into the trading range. Let's see what we're doing here. What is it? Okay, we want the 4X dollar index. This thing has been all over the place today. It got down to $1,230, $1,264 now on the dollar index. And what do we have on the futures here? We'll take a quick look at gold. 1685. Let's take a closer look and see what we have on that. I was thinking that you did have a little bit. Let's go do this, because I continue to want that. Okay, so yesterday's gap down I thought was a little bit of many people in China that were parked in gold for the week they were off. And you're getting a little bit of a pullback for a fairly large gap down. You didn't have that much volume. I'm not a rabid bull here on gold right at the moment, but you got your 50 more than that. You almost got your 618 retracement. You needed about another nickel to get there. So pretty much if you wanted to be in gold, I think you could probably put in a stop of a close below 15487 and say that's it, because you don't want it breaking that. My guess if it does, it'll go back down to the previous low 15103. So we do have that. What else do we have going on here today? A lot of people downgrading some various stocks. Today I saw that earlier in the day. Let's turn this off so we can see this a little bit better. Turn down the time frames. You got a little bit lower with Nvidia today. Again, what we're really probably looking forward to this week in the semiconductor space is Taiwan Semi. That had a fairly big gap down today. And you had some volume. Of course, still got two days to earnings. I'm always thinking that most of the time these gaps down before earnings pretty much price in the worst. Anyway, let's take a quick look at the SMH's also. You finally got back into this gap. Let's go back a little bit farther and tested it today. That gap on the SMH's goes back to November 4th of 2020. You were up on almost 4 million shares. Let's go back and see here. You got into that with already 5 million shares today, but you're really not breaking it. You've got a little bit more of a low out here that you could see back in October 30th of 2020. The low of the day out there was 168.85. That is the next real support level you have other than this gap. It's kind of on the high side of that gap today and filled it. I'm just thinking a bounce in a downtrend could still take you back up to 200 on the SMH's. What do we have here? A question about Apple. We'll look at it real quick. You're retesting the October 3rd low. That was 137.69. 125 million shares into it today. You've got two Doji's out here now. Yesterday's Doji had 75 million shares. Today's Doji has, we'll call it just under 50 million shares today, but not a whole lot of volume coming into these lows. Let's take a look at the spies real quick. Same kind of thing. Let's go on a little shorter time frame. Now, yesterday you could probably write off to the bond market. We're doing about half that right now. We did go below it. We're going to close back above it. So that is a valid buy signal if that continues through the close. I think we've got a lot of people that are waiting for everybody else to move. My guess is that we do get through 36.30. Again, the market will take off like a scalded... What is it? Scalded? A bunch of stuff that I can't say. But anyway, scalded something. Small scalded animal. Okay. Let's take a look at... We talked about this yesterday. So we've got Joe asking about it again. And that is work day. We had very light bulb. And that is work day. We had very light volume yesterday. Volume is just a little hotter than it was. But we were looking for something in the range of about 3 million shares to really show that we were breaking through. Only about 1.3 million shares so far. So you're getting to some fairly good level of support on some of these bigger companies that probably will run very well, for the most part. So let's go ahead and bounce over to the IBBs for Paul. Keep the emails coming by the way, 877-927-6648 and PATH at tfnn.com. To do... Well, you just got kind of a... Just a little bigger candle engulfing yesterday's, but it's not a very big candle. We talked about this in the retracement part. You pretty much got your 618 retracement yesterday. I think you could put in a stop in the IBB, low 1,1669. And you probably have a nice little setup. Is there a lot of money in it? No, but you probably have found the low in some of these for the short term. We'll be back in a minute. 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Get your copy of the Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting tfnn.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Got you, but that may have been me. And, yeah, we'll see just kind of drifting around at these low levels, but not a lot of selling, not a lot of buying. And generally when you have these kind of lows come in, no one believes it for a little while. And then it kind of comes all like a freight train at you. So just be careful. I'm not always right, but my guess is that when we do have a move out here, whether I'm right or wrong, it's going to be definitive. That means you probably shouldn't be anywhere away from your mouse button for the next hour and a half, because everything is set up almost perfectly. Now maybe this drags on into tomorrow for Delta Neutral Day, but kind of hard to tell. First question is for Tesla. We've come back into this gap higher. That gap was on June 21st. You had 122 million shares. You're getting into it with about half of that. You got about 55 million shares today. Could you get 208.69? Maybe. This is actually one of the best-looking charts, though, in the market. And I'm kind of always a bear on Tesla. But you only had about two-thirds the energy on the way down than you had on the way up. And there aren't many of those that you can find in the market. And maybe something changed lately, but you could get a bounce to 265. I think fairly easily in this. Question on the TBT, where would you be a buyer for this? Like I said, in the TLT, we've got a pretty good sign that we're going to be probably on the upside on the bond market. I'm thinking we could get on the TLT, something like 105 ish on a bounce on this. Just looking at it, my thought is that you could get back into 2950 on this. This is the 2X bear on the TBT. So I would kind of look around that 2950 area if you got back down there on low volume. But you've got a fairly good indication that you've got a top. You had a island kind of reversal back on the 27th. You did that on 8.1 million shares. You got into it yesterday with 5.2 million shares the day before yesterday. Yesterday with just 4.4 million shares, you're probably going to close back into this range. And that's probably a pretty good indication that you've got a at least short to medium term top coming into the bond market. We've got Janet Yellen talking exactly when the markets close at 4. So I'm imagining that she's been told to go out there and start whipping the economy up. We've got an election coming and maybe things don't look as good for her bunch as she thinks that they may be. So maybe going to the whip a little horse racing lingo there for you. Folks in lutes so don't be surprised to see a lot of happy talk or more happy talk. I know there's a lot of things going on but the oldest saying there is and around is you buy when there's blood in the streets or the one that I love the French one. You buy on the cannons and you sell on the trumpets. Well certainly we've got the cannons right now. So I'm thinking we get a bounce. I'm not exactly sure what's going to happen. Part of our bounce today came from one of the Fed members coming out and there weren't quite rainbows and unicorns coming out. You know where on their human orifices but it was kind of that. What else do we have? Let's take a quick look at MSFT. Again I'm saying then the next I think by this time tomorrow we're going to be moving. So I know that you were kind of laughing. I don't have an exact one but everything looks good here or better let me put it for a short term. And again I'm not a Pollyanna. I'm not saying we're out of a bear market. I've been looking for kind of a big run that could last three months and take us into the end of the year and then probably next year we're going to see the return of a very maybe rabid bear that could take us all the way up to 4100 on the S&P. Microsoft just a little lower out here you got into the gap not a lot of volume be very interesting whether or not the stock goes up or not we all have to pretty much in the finance industry use Microsoft. I know that there's a couple of people that I have as subscribers and other people that are looking for new hardware for Microsoft as they are kind of a leader now in the laptop part of the market. And I did have oh I had somebody else ask me if they'd buy a Apple laptop and I said no and I thought I'd just bring it up here now one of the reasons is we're down here in Humidville otherwise known as Tampa and one of the problems with having a Apple laptop in Florida is the high humidity they put these little things that look like oh I'm going to call them about the size of a hole in a piece of paper like you had in school you had those hole punches they're about that big and they're a little dot and they're a sensor if they get to Humid they turn a color and of course that voids your warranty on Apple and you don't have to throw your laptop in the in the tub you just have to have it down here and that's enough and people have the dickens of a problem getting a lot of warranty or stuff done if you take your laptop outside of the air conditioning so I'm just not a big fan of it most of the other ones don't do stuff like that I know they have it in their phones too but the phones tend to be very sealed and not as big a problem but it's still the same kind of thing I'm just not a fan of the Apple laptops for one of them for that reason down here it's got some more emails here so let's get through those okay oh I got that that's over here if I was going to buy Nvidia or AMD for a bounce which ones I would go after I would certainly go after Nvidia because you got to know that anybody following Kramer probably isn't it established and good short seller they're going to do the wrong thing I've been waiting for that to run I've kind of thought that they could run the shorts out of that following Kramer maybe up to 140 I just don't know exactly where that's going to be now but as their product launch if they sell out very quickly in the next 24 hours you could see that kind of short squeeze on Kramer's followers we'll be back in a minute sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content stream live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. eastern for free each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world from the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds Tiger TV has 8 different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN educating investors the technology around us is changing every day with so much happening it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David White's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand 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probably a lower percentage move let's take a look here you got a little ABC 2 out here that would take you to $9.18 I'm not going to be pushing more than 1-1 in this market but yeah you could do that you've got a nice wide-ranging bar here today that got down to 770 what's the volume today 32 million shares I think they're better out here yeah you could probably see some of these the biggest problem with PLTR we've said it I've said it since it started trading and that is this is a company where they can't tell you what they do if they did they'd have to kill you you're not going to get a lot of headlines and other stuff you kind of got that at the very beginning but that were the people that were operating the stock I don't think it's a bad company if you wanted to hold it for 10 years I think it would probably be $100 stock the issue is do you want to own it for a year while it goes sideways or up and down a little bit but eventually I think it will do okay I don't see much in it maybe you get your ABC out of this to $9.18 but just too many people short for my my beliefs on it what else did we have out here what do the charts tell us on Uber you blew through again this is why I suspect a lot of self-serving stuff ever since Jamie Dimon on the TV Monday morning at 10.30 and started telling everybody to throw the baby out with the bathwater I've been highly dubious of self-serving headlines in the market I think a lot of people ended up deciding they were going to buy Uber at the lows I just don't see it being a huge ripper on the other side of this I think if you bought it this morning probably a pretty good trade you got a lot of volume out here but they made it and just so many of these stocks that I see out here they're making them rip through the lows and getting people to throw their stocks away I think the lows on the second of August this thing popped up with 107 million shares you got 74 and this is on a headline that I find highly dubious there may be a lot of reasons for the president to say this I just don't think that they can carry it through for a variety of reasons most of them legal okay what else do we have that is one for you that there if we have any questions in the den please push them through oh I got another one here we have okay a question what do I think on TSM I want semi I mean the big question for all these are always is China going to invade I don't think there's any real problem with the company or them making their numbers even if everybody quits some people drop out Taiwan semiconductor can easily fill the production from other folks it's not they are production bound at the moment so I don't understand other than them being invaded a lot of bearishness in this I would wonder if you do get some kind of reversal on Thursday and makes this an island bottom I don't again I'm not a Pollyanna but this may be the lows for a long time in TSM short of an invasion I don't know how you put a odds on that as I said before I'm generally if I'm playing semis I'm going to be playing them for a variety of reasons or short with options I don't think there's a whole lot of reasons to have all your equity in these okay yeah I mean what is that Skyworks SWKS they love to throw these downgrades at lows which I find hysterical if I was in it I probably would not find it hysterical but Skyworks Solutions of course makes a lot of products for smartphones you really didn't get you finally they kind of broke it through the lows you never really got the kind of big volume you'd like to see you got to what two and a half two million shares yesterday that was into a three million share low at 88 bucks some nice downside here again I would watch these for any sign of an island bottom in the short term and maybe you get a 50% retracement or something that's actually fairly big on a lot of these stocks and that wouldn't destroy any downside of the longer term bearfolk only that okay question about UNG I haven't changed my mind on this one what you want to see that first massive cold snap and we haven't really kind of as far as I can tell not seen that quite yet all that being said I think you have the opportunity for some kind of low here minus some big headline news but your last low was 5. I'm going to call that 5.9 million shares on October 3rd 2170 today you got about 3.3 million shares so you're getting a fairly decent retest the only thing that would make this look any better would be about a 2175 2150 print on this that then gets rejected it's hard for me to be bearish any of these and at the moment probably the hardest thing for me to do is not just buy UNG right now there may be a little bit better back in a minute Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold Project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives to transaction Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGZ Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value you might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market you're 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hours the Tiger's Den available to all Tigers and Tigris's for just $1 for the year there's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com catch Tom O'Brien professional trader and educator founder of TFNN also a special guest on CNBC Tom will bisect and dissect the markets the Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN as we come back I don't know I don't know if a headline came through or anything but certainly we lost a lot of points there fairly quickly S&Ps now just a hair under $3,600 $35,000, $96,000, $98,000 as I said we go into options roll over tomorrow so expect more volatility probably not less tomorrow but yeah I don't see a lot of reasons why to get too freaked out at the moment mostly on these volumes maybe we get one more pushed down before but my guess is the low of the next 10 days is either here or within the next trading day so we'll keep an eye on it options continue to be rather bullish in the very short term and we're just looking for a bounce in a downtrend or at least I am and we'll take a look again pushed down this morning with a lighter volume probably still going to see it we only have 7.7 billion shares on the CBOE total volume so far today maybe that comes back in sometimes you can just chew through these lows and why we don't see a lot of volumes maybe we could see that but don't see a lot of volume coming back in they tend to get the volume when they run the stops and then there is a lot of volume the rest of the day just watching what's happened the last 10-15 minutes on the down is basically the same thing if they can gap it down and get a lot of stops to run them they can have it again I'm more thinking that everybody is trying to push money in my pocket free and generally I'm kind of a contrarian when that comes to the end of the world kind of speech by many people self-serving when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bat channel same bat time building wealth trading in the stock market seems