 Welcome back folks, Dow investors right now trading down to $215 to get the Nasdaq off $132. S&Ps are off $39. Let's get over to our mamms to Tim Ord as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour. And you can reach Tim folks at all times at www.Ord-Oracle.com Tim Ord, what's going on? Tim Ord, what's going on? Thanks for having me on. Thanks for having me on. Did you get my church? I sure did. We have them up here ready to rock and roll. All right. All right. The first chart, I think that Praying member him, he's actually older now. Martin Praying. Yeah. Yeah. Robert Praying, running out. He came out with a inflation thing, a deep, anyhow, I made a ratio out of it. Okay. And so that window down, you know, the top one of the RSI for that inflation-deflation ratio and below that is the inflation-deflation ratio itself. Okay. And this chart goes back to, I don't know, 2000, I can't quite see it, I don't know, goes back to 2000, 2013 or something. Anyhow, so when the ratio is rising, then inflation is outperforming deflation and vice versa. And so I stuck an RSI to this thing and it works pretty well. So it gives a bunch of signals, not very many signals, but it gives about a signal a year, give or take. And the blue lines are when the RSI of this inflation-deflation ratio falls below 30. So the market's kind of getting hit or deflation, hitting hard against inflation. So we got a signal back in August of last year because the RSI of this ratio fell below 30 and it turned up. And so this is kind of another signal. So this single, so this method gave a signal back in August and remains on the signal. The cell signals don't work quite as good. They give, when the RSI gets above 70, the time that the market's gone up too quick. A lot of times it comes sometimes early, last year it nailed the top pretty good. But the one before that, it was kind of nailed a consolidation phase back at that 2020 time frame and that market went down a little bit and came right back up. But I do a lot of different type indicators and I try to stick to indicators that nobody else uses. If somebody starts using an indicator, then it kind of puts work in. So I don't see any buy from this stuff I read around the Internet. Nobody really uses this. That's why we love you so much, Tim. Go ahead. No, no, go ahead. I said that's why we love you so much. You have indicators that no one uses. Yeah. So anyhow, I put it this way. We had last week, we had a, I think, an 18-day average up-down volume of client indicators that when they fell below 40, which they did again last August, kind of matched this signal here. And when they get above plus 40, which they did on April 4th, I think that's the one we covered last week. And what that implies is a surge pattern. And that surge pattern usually has a rally pattern that lasts four or five months. Well, I gave a bicycle in March of this year. So you had four or five months to come up August where the surge pattern may end. My point of that is, if this indicator of the inflation-deflation ratio, RSI reaches up around 70, say in August or September, that would build well with the other indicators suggesting they see a top in August or September. So I think we may have a rally all the way into August, September. Then from there, it may take a rest. So right now, these surge patterns are pretty rare. So you kind of want to get on them. Everybody's probably calling it a hi here. We had a heck of a good rally. But on the surge pattern, you'll have minor consolidations that may last maybe one or two weeks, but not a month. So I still think this GDX thing is still in a buy. And in general, we're going to work harder, probably higher all the way into August, maybe September. So we'll have to wait and see. Nice. OK. And then the next shot? Let's see. The next shot, I get the monthly XAU shot. Yeah, it's a monthly XAU gold ratio, which is in the middle window there. And I took it back as far as it could go, and it goes back to about 1984. And what I want to point out in this chart from 2014 to now, the ratio, XAU gold ratio on the monthly timeframe really hadn't gone anywhere. It's just gone sideways. And in my opinion, this is building cause for the next move higher. Gold stocks, they really haven't done anything since the 2000 low. They really had a screaming market from about 2000 to 2000 level. And you could buy anything and make a lot of money. Right. And it went down. And gold right now, you know, Robbie speaking has done a lot better than the gold issues. At some point, I would expect this XAU to gold ratio to break out of this sideways pattern. You know, the Bollinger bands are kind of squeezing. I drew trend lines on this chart going back from the previous highs and previous lows. And also connected to the previous highs going back to 2014. So we're in kind of a tight range. And it looks like we're trying to break above the downtrend line connecting the highs going back to what, 1995. We're kind of on that line right now. Yes. And I'm thinking what we're going to do is probably go back all the way back up to .175, which is that trend line we broke down through on my eyesight snap. Yeah, I see it. I see it. But we had a sharp break down below .175. And we're kind of building a base way below that right now. I think we could have a sharp right back up to .175. And from .175 and from there, I'm not sure. But you know, things can only remain unfavorable for so long. Gold stocks are not going to go away. There is an industrial metal along with silver. So it's not some product that you don't need in everyday life. At some point it's going to come back in favor. It's probably going to come back in favor in a big way. Yes. I'm not sure when, but we get above the upper trend line, which is on .09. I think you're going to see a big burst in these gold stocks. That's my personal opinion. Nice. And then the next chart, the next chart we're talking about the S&P, Tim. S&P, the bottom window is the VIX. Yes. And I drew the shaded pink area at the bottom. Yep. When the VIX got below .17, we're right around still .17 today. And a lot of times when that happened, the market was, which is the blue area posted on the chart on the S&Ps. So every time it got this low, it actually kind of implies that we're kind of in a trending market. I think that's what we may be having here. I don't, if the VIX remained high, say you're around .20 plus, you know, you got a big downtrend going or a kind of a bearish scenario. But if you get below .17, I'm thinking you're heading into a trending market. Also, pre-election years, which is this year, April's up 94% of the time. And it's January's up. And a pre-election year, which it was over 6%, April's up 88% of the time. So even though we're down today here a little bit, I think April's could break above the recent highs of .410 on the SPY. Okay. Well, listen, man, we appreciate the update. We look forward to speaking in next Thursday, Tim. All right. Thank you. All right, folks, you can reach Tim at board-oracle.com. Stay right there, folks. He'll come right back.