 Like I want hello everybody welcome to NFA live. This is I think our 43rd or 44th show So as ever I'm joined by my colleagues guy from coin Bureau guy. Thanks for stopping by Good to see you rope. Good to see you Ben. Yeah, and then of course from into the cryptiverse Ben. How's things going buddy? Good as always good as always. Hey, I just wanted to always want to make before before we talk about it, of course You can find guy coin Bureau coin Bureau clips who just did a live stream with 3,000 participants Which is I think a record you can also check them out over a coin Bureau club And then I think you guys are gonna take a look at Celestia as your new deep dive And of course been over into the cryptiverse and you can do what I do which is still has information in his website So before we start I just want to say I want to apologize everybody because you have to hang out with a loser That would be me and I have to wear this ridiculous shirt which says I heart Machinsky now you may notice that it's only up to this this point right here because the other part I can't show until I go on Simon Dixon's channel But I did wear the shirt and if you want to see the whole thing check out Simon Dixon So gents, we got a couple things to go over. There was this thing that happened yesterday Yeah, I can't I can't remember that thing. Yeah, what was that? I Think it was Bitcoin dominance So we're gonna take a look real quick at the SEC votes and statements because I think we won the battle But we still got a long way to go Then we take a look at pre-market some market open Bitcoin dominance and the Bitcoin ecosystem Which I think it'd be a pretty big winner the gold ETF or is a Bitcoin TF And you know if we take a look at it will be corresponded Will the four-year cycle still play out and then any new investment strategies and of course we'll do questions because me personally I have a new a new wrinkle to what I'm doing So let's just start this off and because I want to do a bunch of Q&A today if we can so the SEC votes so Not everybody realized this but we were really close. This actually not happening and This was a tally of the votes from the commissioners and the chair of the SEC and it looks like Gensler approved it Pierce obviously crypto crypto mom Crenshaw not approved the way that approved and Liz Arraga not approved and before and there's been this this narrative about Democrats vs. Republicans and things get really Really get heated and this is not a Channel that deals with politics. So I'm just gonna run this real quick that yes, Gary is a Democrat Yes, way, there's a Republican Crenshaw as a Democrat Republican Pierce and Democrat And yes, all the Democrats voted no except for Gensler He was the only one to really go against him But just remember this before you say those Democrats suck and I hate them and da da da just remember this It's not all it's just some Lemus and Gillibrand They are one is a Republican one is a Democrat and they are reaching across the aisle to actually Built to go forward with an actual bill that they're trying to pass through then also the removal of Gary Gensler You had two Republicans or two Democrats Emma Republican from Minnesota, and then you had Mike flood from Nebraska teamed up with Torres and nickel who are both Democrats? So don't Buy into the narrative so much. There are reasonable smart people out there that understand what is actually going on So just keep that in mind But if we take a look at the battle we won the battle right we got this ETF me personally I didn't think it was gonna happen honestly, and I've been saying that for quite some time But here's what was said Between the commissioners we've got three We're gonna take a look at what pierce said what gensler said and then what crunch on it's it gets kind of ugly from here So pierce says today marks the end of an unnecessary but consequential saga definitely commissioners driven retail investors to less efficient means of Attaining bitcoin exposure in the securities markets, and they've also caused a heck of a lot of risk So they're supposed to their job, and they're failing at their job The commission rather than admitting error offers a weak explanation for its change of heart. I have my theories. I'm sure everybody else will in a second But this is the big thing we squandered a decade of opportunities to do our job If we had applied the standard we used for other commodity based etps. We could have approved these products years ago I've said for quite some time that we got screwed out of a proper bull run in 2021 But whatever And we refused to do so until a court called our bluff. So thank you ripple. So that was Crypto mom pierce Gensler was very positive as well except for the last part and when I say like we won the battle We haven't we haven't won the war. This is why he says bitcoin is primarily a speculative volatile asset That's also used for illicit activity ransomware money laundering sanctioned evasion and terrorist financing Pay no attention the fact that before bitcoin. It was all us dollars While we approved the listing and tradition of certain spot bitcoin etp share today We did not approve or endorse bitcoin Which is a funny statement because pierce said the exact opposite and the one that dissents This is the one I could find Crenshaw. She states these commission actions are unsound and ahistorical and worse They put us on a path that could further sacrifice investor protections. I cannot agree with these actions Either our statutory or foundational investor protection mandates and I dissent so gents Before we get into the today's what's going on in the markets What are your thoughts on this guy? I'll start with you How do you see this going? Is this just two random people? Or do you think there's more traction that we have to build up to play people understand of what bitcoin actually is I think there's definitely I mean it does show just the polarity of opinion within the Within the sec itself, doesn't it? I mean, you know hester hester pierce has been So outspoken about how you know how they like she said failed to do their job And yet on the other hand you have you know, it's not just gary But you know saying it's being used for terrorist financing, but but Crenshaw as well being you know really damning of it So there is obviously a huge Um polarity there between between, you know, two schools of thought. I do wonder um You know because there was a lot of talk beforehand wasn't there that if the sec were to reject yesterday Then they would find themselves in court against, you know, usual suspects like grayscale But also the likes of black rock, you know, can you imagine you imagine the team of lawyers these asset managers Would be able to to put together like I I can't imagine That that gary or you know, any of the others really wanted that so I do wonder whether these two dissenters kind of knew that it was going to pass and Use this as an opportunity to set to you know Just kind of set out their stall as being you know as being anti bitcoin as being anti crypto And it was kind of you know an opportunist Uh an opportunist uh move by them to sort of you know to to make their point Even though they probably knew it was going to go through I wonder as well whether you know gary I've heard I've heard these. Um, I think it was the spot bitcoin ETF. So or maybe it was just the whole The whole furory around crypto, but I've heard it being described as as his sort of personal vietnam So I just wonder whether this was something that he was just like we just got to we've just got to do this and and move on You know because again, you know coming back to the idea that they could be facing You know these almighty asset managers in court like why would they want that? You know, they knew they had to do it. So they so they did it. Um And of course, I mean There is also speculation that uh that gary could be headed to the treasury at some point You know, I've heard I've heard it sort of mentioned a couple of times over the last couple of years that uh, you know Yellen is is sort of thinking of hanging up her boots Gary wants that job. So therefore that would mean a vacancy from you know from within the agency So, you know, maybe this maybe there's a political angle to this and people are sort of like I say setting out their stall um, but Crucially they they couldn't stop it and and I think they I think it would have been a terrible mistake for them to stop it because It would just yeah It just tied them up in another massive court case And I mean they've already lost enough of those just in the last few months alone Why would they want to why would they want to go back over that? Ah, that's a good point. Those are all good points. I didn't think about that about you know, they just kind of They played in the shadows and just said okay I'm going to dissent just because it's a it's a political move and I'm going to show my party That's what it is and then of course Gary wants to do it because he's angling for Janet Yellen's job That makes a lot of sense Then what do you think here? I know you're you're ecstatic about this ETF being finally done. We can talk about something else Yeah, I think guy is right to a large extent like the I've ever seen like those um Those like singing shows where there's like judges and like they'll be like yeses and noes and sometimes someone will vote Yes, just because they already know the other judges voted no Um, it's kind of like that like yeah, like they maybe they would have voted. Yes had it actually made a difference Let's see and and yeah, they could have voted yes if it would have made a difference but I gotta tell you it does make a lot of sense that it's like because they're democrats and they and Again, I shouldn't say that because it's just a political thing, but What should say this theoretically? Bitcoin should not be a political thing, you know I mean, I think it should appeal to to you know, both sides of the aisle um now but yeah, I think um I mean, I I think I think we're still in the end and they fight you phase obviously I mean there's stuff there's still a lot, but I also think too that it's natural for politicians to to be very slow to embrace new things um I mean if if we think back to like people in the past There there's been so many instances where I mean even like 30 years ago There were very popular people and very famous, you know very famous people that said that the internet would never be a thing true and And even home computers like that was sort of laughed at as as something that would ever happen So I mean I think to to to some extent we're going through the same type of process We've gone through with other technologies where you know the people in power that have never used this stuff before if it If it threatens if it threatens them in any way if they don't understand it Um, they're going to be a lot more skeptical and they're just going to go No, I mean, um, but the funny thing is is like, you know, basically everything that was listed for for something That is sort of seen as bad with bitcoin I mean, I feel like you could make the same case with us dollars and even more so because you know at least I mean cash isn't even traceable really. I mean like, you know, like if you pay someone It's not like the government Can can necessarily see where all the all that money's flowing with the blockchain You know, it's there's a ledger. There's a public ledger. You can see where everything goes. So I mean almost argue the opposite that that that bitcoin actually would help Uh in in that regard and I mean, I suppose if they were talking about like pride, you know, like Privacy coins and that would be a different story like Monero or something like that but I mean with bitcoin, I don't really see that as being as big of a as a big of a thing. So, yeah I mean, I think we're in the I think we're still in the And then they fight you phase and we'll probably be in this phase for A few more years probably more than likely it's a good point because You know, if you think about it because we didn't we just recently won I mean if you you know the whole history of of bitcoin and digital assets It's been such a such a small amount of time Between the ripple case and actual win and where we are today. So think of it this way Everybody thinks that we're we're late to the party because like everybody who's been here for years We're like, I remember when bitcoin was 8000 and yeah, of course You guys remember one of his lower than that because you were in before me Imagine right now as high as the price is which we get to a second Imagine if we're in this phase imagine if we're in the phase of Jeff Bezos in a real crappy office Amazon.com before it really took off imagine that I mean we can all we can all dream, right? So I guess that'll lead me to my next question next points pre-market and market open. So check this out So right now let me refresh this 47 6 maybe it went up Yeah 5.5. That's uh, it's not a bad 24-hour time frame This was uh, last uh, what's the date today 11th? Yeah, January 2 in the morning. It was 45 6 And it peaked out. It's uh, wow 47 7 not too shabby and then of course Pre-market trading this was from bitcoin news black rocks etf is up 24 percent and they pre-market with 2 million in shares already traded This is from eric platoonis He was the etf analyst for bloomberg It's been saying that this would get approved which I never believed him and of course that's why I'm wearing the shirt And he says I bet it's already traded 2 million worth of shares That would be a great first full day for a normal etf But this volume is likely black rock orchestrated slowly loading And then he also talks about how if this Is starting off like gangbusters so far the all-time high of the flow or volume record is 2.1 billion dollars So let's see if they can do that in a 24-hour time frame. So then since you're up again What do you think what's going to happen today and anything that we can add on to that? I mean today isn't bitcoins already up two and a half percent or so, right? Um, I'll take it. Yeah Yeah, I mean I I have no idea what's going to happen today. Um, I I mean, I I think that you know, my views on the market have been um that Bitcoin goes up long enough to sort of break all coin all bitcoin pairs down Yeah, that has been my view And you know, we came really close to breaking eith bitcoin off the uh the support the june 2022 low Uh, we went to we actually went below the june 2022 low Um, but I don't really think it's relevant unless we get a weekly close below it So and the reason why I say that is because for me It would be a risk off signal if if we were to get a weekly close below the ether bitcoin pair If it got a weekly close below the june 2022 low, we don't have that yet, right? So like that hasn't happened yet because There was some, you know, there was some resilience. I think on the ether bitcoin pair it it sort of popped back up to what 0.056 um So that still makes me believe that it's still risk on until until that happens basically um So I don't know. I mean, I don't know exactly how high it can go I mean, there's there's all sorts of different levels if we could look at but what what is that right now like 47 48k It is exactly 47 8 you're right for my views that it's going to continue to to Work until until It continues to gain market share. I mean, I know we're going to talk about dominance too Um, oh, you know it. Yeah. I mean, why not? I mean, you know, we gotta we got to talk about it when it's up We also got to talk about it when it's down And dominance has taken and it has taken a big hit, right? I mean it drops what two two percent two and a half percent or something from 55 to 53 50 it's even below 53 So, yeah, I mean those are my general views that I mean short term We've talked for months about how in the short term bitcoin could likely rally into a spot ETF And even in that case, it doesn't immediately have to You know, it doesn't have to immediately sell off. I could continue to slowly grind higher Uh for for some time before getting for getting a larger correction um My my the other thing I would look at would be like the eight week because I think if you look at at prior bull runs at least like in 2019 and in 2021 Until bitcoin crossed below the eight week moving average it was still risk on so I think the eight week is is just about 42 k So as long as we're above that I don't really think there's big You know huge worrying signs, but below that I think there's um things start to get a little dicey So above 42 k we're looking at a little risk on I mean, I I think until ether I mean, I hate and I know I'm not gonna make any friends, right, but I Don't know why I do this to myself. It'd be so much easier But ben this is this is why we're here because like like he says perfectly last time He said it's great when we have differences of opinions because if we're all saying the same thing It's an echo chamber. I'm boring as hell. So keep saying. Yeah So yeah, so, um Can I share my screen? Absolutely, buddy There's a well, you know how to use it now the uh stream yard Cool software. I gotta tell you I gotta get a referral link for those guys Although not I mean not too many people are gonna start streaming, but whatnot Share screen All right, can you guys see that gotcha? All right, let's take a look at this. I don't even want to say this but yeah, you should I am waiting for this This is good stuff. Say it ben. Say it's been bitcoin dominance video coming out another one soon Okay, so I mean first of all like, you know before we go any further I will say that anyone who has you know done what rob has done over the last Few months year is sitting in a pretty good spot right now, right? So Let's be clear about that, right? I mean, you know dominance has gone up a lot I don't think there's any denying that but that doesn't that's not to dismiss anyone who has been in the altcoin market I mean, there's no denying that you've done pretty well over the last few months And so I just want to sort of say that and and acknowledge that With that said I do want to at least look at at one potential thing that I think investors should be aware of And and you know There was this period over here where You know where ether bitcoin was really struggling to durably break below The you know this low right here from december at 2017 and it took 83 weeks For it to break down, right? I mean it took like a year and a half For it to and you can see that it actually got several bounces off of this level before ultimately Fading right and and and finally dropping below and it was it was a bitcoin rally That dropped the ether bitcoin pair below that level. I'm not talking about eth usd Right if bitcoin usd goes up it can take a theorem with it. Sure. I'm talking about is the ether bitcoin pair And I mean you can even see that on this bounce that it got This bounce here occurred in may of 2019 and and and it actually rallied Basically right above the 20 week SMA 21 week EMA and furthermore if you zoom in I mean you can see that it was like it was basically a three day rally And then that took you so that was from may 14th through may 16th So that's why I think you you have to look as as a as an eth investor is Can it can it break above that that level today? And if it can if it can durably break above it Then I think you say that maybe maybe the trend is different than it than it was last time And maybe it's not just going through the same process of bouncing off these lows And then just getting rejected only to then revisit it two months later, right? So, you know, there there still are similarities and I I look at that because what what actually happened over here Is ether bitcoin? bounced Right actually, I don't know how long you can stop me if I'm going on too long. Oh, no, no, no. This is good stuff Yeah, okay, so okay. So like just very very quickly like if you look at like the ether usd pair Sort of what happened back over there We were doing something kind of similar where we were we had these lower We had these higher highs and higher lows And then we got a big breakout right here, right? You see that breakout by eth usd on may 13th Yeah, and then it surged for a few days, right? It surged for a few days right there if you overlay ether bitcoin onto that chart That's where you can see that it it when it finally broke out when it finally broke through this level That's where ether bitcoin got that pop, right? You see that pop right there But then after the initial pop ether bitcoin then faded and then came back down two months later And finally broke it right it finally broke it But you can see that the reason it broke it was not because ether usd was going down ether usd was actually going up when ether bitcoin broke down The reason ether bitcoin broke down was because bitcoin was going up faster, right? You can see that bitcoin was going up faster And that was what broke ether down on its bitcoin pair. So that's why I've said forever That it's a bitcoin rally that likely breaks the ether bitcoin pair down if it's going to break down Because that's exactly how it happened last cycle now. The funny thing is that We're we're likely going to get a rate cut in march, right? Is that what the the current probabilities are march may somewhere around there? I don't always remember didn't yeah I mean so it's interesting because again When when ether bitcoin finally broke down last cycle it occurred in july Right in july and the reason the reason why july is interesting is because if you were to overlay interest rates onto the chart July is when we got a rate. That's when we first got our rate cut In in july. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I I just keep going back to this idea of like, okay Well, it's january now. We're likely going to get a rate cut in march Is ether bitcoin just getting this like, you know, this final bounce? Up before it rolls over a couple of months from now and then breaks that 0.049 level As we go into the first rate cut because that's what that's what essentially happened In the last cycle, but again, I think a lot of the problem is a lot of people sort of can misinterpret that I'm not saying that ether usd has to you know has to be bad In fact, you can see that ether usd was going up when ether bitcoin broke down. Look, there's a good chance This does not play out right a really good chance. It does not play out and that we deviate and do something different I know a lot of people are already speculating about the The um the ether etfs right now that we spend every all year talking about bitcoin etfs now We're going to spend all year talking about a theory me tfs but I don't know man I I I think it's still a relevant view on the market to at least consider and the way that I think you look for some type of Deviation to that view is I mean ether just had a pretty explosive move right if it broke up Yeah, the reason why it hasn't broken through that 20 week SMA yet in an durable fashion is because bitcoin's also now going up And I mean again, like there's the spotty tfs launched today, right? So a theorem is going to have to compete with that all this flow through the spotty tfs A theorem is going to have to compete with that and so if it were to play out like the last cycle then Yeah, like bitcoin surges And the surge causes eth bitcoin to break down eth usd can go up with it But it isn't it it might not have the same type of of move that bitcoin would have and I again, I don't I don't know if it's going to play out like that or not. I'm just saying. Hey, this is what happened last time And and it finally broke down when we got a rate cut. We're getting a rate cut in March I will say it's great. Excellent. So that was that was good because it was great because When everybody takes a look at these charts and they took a look at 24 hours like hey ethereum 10 percent Hey, solana 12 percent. Hey, celestia 28.7 percent It's another thing to remind to remind ourselves because I had this same mentality in 2017 at the same one in 2021 I kind of feel it again It's as a reminder that hey even though we think that we know where the market's going to go the market Market doesn't care about us and the market will do what it wants to do and there's different levels to take a look at So that would be so the next question. I mean guy. I want to ask you this the same thing What do you think about that? Could today? Could bitcoin just start to just suck up all that liquidity even though right now because it's right now it's it's 9 28 A.m. Eastern center time. I think markets are opening up So we're right before this this level. What do you think could actually happen today? Do you think that liquidity comes into bitcoin or do you think people like, you know what? I'm on my next big thing Which is the eth ETF My guess would be that it'll find its way into bitcoin first Because I mean, I'm basing you know, I'm I'm kind of I'm relatively bullish on the inflows if you like into these Excuse me into these various into these various ETFs because I mean partly because you know There have been so many applications so many applications approved by these by these guys who you know Presumably know what they're what the demand is like and And I thought it was quite instructive as well to see the to see the kind of Race to the bottom when it came to the fees that they were charging as well You know over the last few days when when we've all been essentially glued to people completing paperwork Which has been kind of surreal in itself But you know the fees this is really really competitive That you know driving down to these sort of ultra low fees Which suggests to me that they believe that the demand is there. So I think yeah, I can see it going into bitcoin first But because because remember I think we're expecting a lot of this capital to come from outside of crypto whereas Inside of crypto, you know, all of us who've been you know, we've been talking about nothing else virtually for months Bitcoin ETFs, you know, we're the ones. I think who are who are sort of okay ETFs great. What's next? ETH ETFs brilliant, you know Sound like I think it's where those where those inflows into that that I think is why eth is pumping because the crypto community has already moved on Um, but it's not I'm not necessarily certain that it is the crypto community that's going to count You know, what what what these ETFs the reason we're excited about these ETFs is because this is cap This is new capital by and large, you know, this is institutions and this is people, you know Looking to looking to diversify their 401ks or whatever it is. So I would I'm expecting It to find its way into into into bitcoin first. I got it. I I I got to go with you on that one and I will say this Everybody right now all these traditional finance people are coming in and they're about to get their mind blown By the ridiculous gains are going to go up And I think it's amazing to me that we're sitting here talking about you know, what sucks this one's only going to do 20 Percent, you know, what sucks this one's only going to do a hundred percent It's amazing to me because the traditional finance people will look at us and be like you guys are crazy We'll just wait because it's like anything that you I can't say this is the financial advice Obviously, but anything that you you put into for crypto in the next six months to a year Probably going to do pretty good. And so it really just becomes like like the fast horse So peeking at the thing of fast horses. Let's move on to this one the dominance and the ecosystem So guy i'm going to start with you because this is your favorite topic Dominance let me just pull up real quick. Here's what we got Maybe we don't let me add this in There we go I am pulling this from Mr. Cohen's website bitcoin dominance. It was looking pretty pretty trashy in 2022 37 38 percent And then of course here we go. It's going up fear and nailed it over 53 54 roughly And now we're at 51.71. Will this change As all these new Old money new money traditional finance people figure it out. Is this where it all comes to or do you think? Yeah, it's about right Yeah, I mean again going back to going back to what I said earlier. That that's that's what I believe will happen I believe the new money will will will migrate to bitcoin first Um, obviously everything's dependent on on the flows into these ETFs um But uh, yeah, I I can I can well I can well see dominance Rising from here. I I don't know. I'm not sure we're going to get sort of I think sort of 60 percent was was talked about at one point I I don't think we're going to get anywhere close to there But I can certainly see it rising, you know, maybe even a couple of a couple of percentage points from here um And then, you know, then the question is do does everyone move on to the next shiny thing and like I said earlier I think I think it's the crypto community Who's on to the next shiny thing at the moment? The question is does that does that sort of if you like mainstream tradfire capital? Does that go with it? Do they do they then start chasing? Uh, the eth ETF narrative. That's the that's the big question That is the big question. Yeah, and I can just say this I mean if you're into bitcoin like we all are there's also the bitcoin ecosystem Here's already for the ordinals doing pretty good today at 12% and then also stacks, which is a layer two smart contract platform Doing pretty well as well 5.6 but not like some bigger gains. All right, so This will have to go to ben who does touch on this subject every so often dominance ben Where are we going? I mean theoretically up, but I'll take it If I mean if so if ether if the ether bitcoin pair keeps going up And let's say gets like multiple closes above that 20 week then Like the problem is is bitcoin dominance is not going to go up in a meaningful way if ether bitcoin is going up Right because the ethereum market cap is so large that Even if a lot of altcoins were to bleed to bitcoin if ethereum is going up quickly Then dominance is not going to go out, you know go up as as much as that otherwise would have if ether bitcoin were breaking support So I still stubbornly for some reason that I don't know why I do to this to myself I am stubbornly still thinking it could go to 60 um I think that Uh, if it if it were to emulate the the prior cycle just as rate cuts arrived It would mean basically risk on until about 56 percent and then above 56 percent bitcoin chops around And and basically just easily all coins alive um That's yeah Again on their on their bitcoin pairs like that's what on their bitcoin pairs. Sure. Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah That would be again if it if it were to emulate and you know I've I've listened to a lot of people over the last over the last year Tell me that you know the the crypto ecosystem is much bigger than bitcoin now and and how dominance will never go back up um But you know, I'm not you know, I'm not calling for new highs on dominance We're like i'm not calling for it to go to 73 percent Which is where it was last cycle if you think back to like late 2020 dominance was at 73 percent That's that's huge, right? I mean like think about Think about what that would mean for all coins if dominance were at 73 percent today, right? I mean you you saw what happened when it went from, you know, 38 percent to 55 now imagine if it did that again You know, um So I I'm not calling for dominance to go to like 75 percent But I do think 60 percent Is still a relevant target if if people are watching the the chart that that rob has up and you're confused like why dominance um is so low Compared to say what it has on trading view. It's because trading view They don't use as many cryptocurrencies, right? So like trading view Dominance is at 53 percent But in reality the the real bitcoin dominance Is what like I don't know what it was rob. But like what a full percent below that maybe two one and a half percent below that Yeah Some and again and again like I yeah 51 point point 82 percent. So it's it's just below 52 percent That's when you include, you know, basically the entire asset class and not just the top like 150 or 200 coins I think it's better to just have like a you know a larger representation Um, so yeah, I I think 60 percent is still in the cards um But if it if it doesn't get to 60 percent, you know, within the next few months, then You know, I think at some point In the halving year is where dominance turns around, right? So like I like I would expect it to top out this year Okay, and by the way, it actually already put in a new high this year I know if you look at the daily chart, you won't see it But if you if you go to lower timeframes win the spot ETF that sort of the fake news came out Yeah, yeah To a a slightly higher high it went to like 55.33 percent before then collapsing as the news turned out to be fake news Um, I saw a funny meme that was like, you know, it was like it was like when you sell the news But the news is fake That's exactly right that's exactly right. Hey, let me let's because I just want to say this I person so so guy believes, you know below 60 Ben believes 60 I'm gonna go 70 percent. No, no, I'm gonna go 65 or higher I'm not suggesting that it has to stop at 60 but but 60 would be where I I think that It becomes a little bit more reasonable to think that Maybe these alt coins, you know have have actually found their lows on their bitcoin pairs Okay, it could go higher than 60 for all I know but like 60 percent is just like That's been a target of mine for what? I mean you how long have we been doing this for like a year and a half? About a year. Yeah, so I mean like when we get to 60 I I think I will I will relinquish my My strong view on it and and then just be a little bit more neutral about it Yeah, and see this is the beauty of it This is the beauty of of you know being in the market if I say 65 it doesn't hit it Who cares because like if we dca Wow, they will care they No, no, no, they wouldn't I can assure you they will care Look, I don't know if you've around on on this platform called twitter now. It's called x super nice people Don't say a word. It's very it's very forgiving. So anyhow, moving moving past this one Let's talk about let's let's go to always a little bit quickly and then we'll go to the q&a the gold etf this was the thing that Uh, I just want to bring up really quickly because everybody talks about like it's gonna match this These things don't line up perfectly. So there was a gold etf no image 2004 and it was a four-year bull run essentially No Well, yeah until 2008 until the great recession, of course, then we then we we dropped down, of course I just went up like crazy just real quick Is it going to follow this? I still think the four-year cycle is going to play I still think that at some point we get overheated The technology doesn't keep up with the with the with the demand of mass adoption We take a huge dump and then we go back again the four-year cycles until the next having which will be 2028. So Ben just real quick and I'll go to guy were those monthly candles. They're monthly candles. Yeah, because look at this I want to show you this I mean, that's like but I think people should be aware that you probably don't want it to follow gold because if it does It basically means it goes nowhere for the next year Yeah Right. Yeah, because look at this it goes it's it's it's whatever this is called I'm not a TA person But then of course it comes down here and like for the next two months I mean it was a great first month But look at these these next two months people forget about that and then of course it kind of goes sideways for what six And then it just blows up. So if everybody wants that to happen, I'm not a big fan of that but whatever Well, there's other ETFs too. I think you know if you were to look at what uh qqq When was that one launched that was launched in uh, 1999 Um, and then I think after that launch qqq I mean it went up. I think it actually went up like For what a year it went up for a year and then after it went up for a year It then dropped about 60 below where it initially opened up. Yeah But it still it still went up for a year first So, I mean, there's a lot of different, you know, there's a lot of different funds that we could compare to As far as I really don't think bitcoin price action, you know Has really at any point emulated gold price action Um, I'll take that gold gold tends to to be more of a a a risk off asset that does well You know in in really difficult times whereas bitcoin has always You know looked more like a a risk asset Uh, and by the way, I mean, I I think that for for people that want it to be a risk off asset I mean, I guess there's there's always that argument to be made but It's it's better. I mean honestly, it's probably better for assets to be risk on because we tend to be in risk off or we tend to be risk on Much more frequently than we're risk off, right? Um, I mean if you think about like gold is essentially at the same price that it was a decade ago Um, that's also true. Yeah. I mean, I don't really think we want bitcoin to emulate gold price action I I think rob's probably right. I mean, I think to some degree The cyclical behavior of of bitcoin will continue and it will continue to do what it what it normally does um But I mean it it is interesting to think like if there, you know If there are a lot of flows into bitcoin, let's say over the next month or so into into february And and you got your you got your first rate cuts coming in in march or may um Maybe in the short term it could look like The gold ETF where it sort of pops up initially on the on the on the on the news right on the on the actual flows Yeah, and then it has to cool off For you know for a few months as we go into into the summer So maybe maybe something like that would happen and then we we cool off until sometime um You know later later in the year and then and then we hopefully go back up in 2025 All's I heard was we're going up in 2025. Cool. Thanks So guy Ah It's a guy where just just real quick. I mean gold and whatnot. What do you think is it going to follow perfectly? I still think the four-year cycles, but you know, welcome to go against that I do I do wonder about the four-year cycle because I think I think these ETFs are going to change Change the structure of the market that that's if you go with the with with the bull case that says You know regular people regular investors Who've never touched crypto before can now access BTC in a in a liquid safe way, etc. Etc. They don't have to get their hands dirty. They don't have to use coinbase They don't have to worry about custody or ever true true um So that you know that bull case says and you know that brings in that brings in a whole load of new money And a new type of investor So I think that does I think that change in market structure does potentially affect the four-year cycle And when you combine that with the fact that the the halving the uh, you know the these these halving events are going to become Less and less significant, you know, the the block reward is you know, is is getting is getting really really, you know much smaller now Um, so I think that could I think that could change it on the other hand There is the bear case some I was talking about this for someone. Um earlier today or yesterday that says When you compare to these gold ETFs and you say well, this is going to be the same because Like we just said it gives people an opportunity to get an asset that they didn't couldn't you know previously get before Actually compared to getting your hands on gold on bullion Getting your hands on bitcoin really is Genuinely quite easy. I mean, I know I know we say this as people who've been doing this for Far too long But if you said to me You have to get you have to get your hands on some bitcoin and some gold bullion today You know getting your hands on on bitcoin quickly is is really not hard You know to some people it may appear hard, but it isn't getting your hands on on gold bullion I would say is a lot harder and then then you've got the problem of how to move it around You know if you're talking about any sort of sizable amount how to move it around how to store it etc, etc So maybe we you know by Comparing with gold, maybe we are overstating it a little bit that I think is that I think is the bear case to consider that actually Okay, yeah Bitcoin, you know New people access to bitcoin, etc. Is it is it really that difficult? um, so there is a chance that you know, maybe uh, maybe People are more exposed to bitcoin than we thought and actually that aren't the sort of inflows that we that we necessarily expect That I think is is is the bear case that's worth making But I I kind of go with the with the bull case obviously Yeah, I'm leaning toward the bull case and especially for today people are I seen the chats that they say that the market is ripping We'll get to that in a little bit But lastly the question any new investment strategies guy anything new that after this was approved You change yourself. Okay. Now I'm doing this thing or is it all just study goes the boat Yeah, it doesn't it doesn't change much because I don't think we've been I don't think we've been particularly surprised by what we've seen Like, you know, I I know you I know you were saying it wasn't it wasn't going to be a prude job But hence the t-shirt, but but it was True We are at the start of the next bull market You know dominance or dominance or not everything is is going to go up in the long term So I'm personally not going to stress over, you know, a few a few percentages here and there If you know is alt coin sees is alt coin season around the corner I don't know Um, I'm I'm also seeing plenty of very credible analysis from the likes of Arthur Hayes that we could be in For you know for a pretty big for a pretty big crash not just in crypto, but in all markets Um in q2 and I think, you know, there's there's a pretty solid foundation to that thesis um So No, but so far, you know, so far. I haven't been too surprised by what's happened So I don't think that's going to I don't think that's going to change my outlook particularly Um Then what do you got excellent response? I can appreciate that been anything changed for you I mean not really. I mean I I think for me. I'll just I you know my portfolio has mostly been just bitcoin um The last what two years um Worked out it worked out pretty good. I think Yeah, um theoretically right. Yeah, I I think uh, that hasn't really changed um I think if you know if if if dominance were to like break down or something and not Do what I think it's going to do like if it doesn't continue to go higher Then that I probably would Eventually, you know, so I I think at some point this year I will change my investment thesis and not You know sort of expand beyond bitcoin um But for me, I'd have to feel pretty confident that that bitcoin dominance has topped out For me to want to do that and I I think there are a lot of credible people that make the case that it's already topped out But I don't I don't necessarily think that's proven just yet And so I I I think I would prefer to just kind of stick with bitcoin for now um And then maybe reassess on on the you know sometime on the other side of of rate cuts Sounds good. And then for me I'll just tell everybody, of course Um, oh ben when I'm when I'm saying this can you give me a favor? Can you pull up the bitcoin chart to see where we're at because everybody keeps saying pull up the chart? Because I think it's almost going to hit 50k So there's that me personally There's a little change which is you know, we're big in a real estate and we love that stuff But it's a pan. Yes quite honestly And we just sold recently One of our condos if we're going to put a big chunk of that into bitcoin right now Obviously have been better to do it in november 2022, but what are you gonna do? So I think that uh, I think this is the time before thank you. This is the time to do things There could be a dip there could be it, but if you take a longer time frame, we're okay. What is the price? Uh, 48 780s. Yeah 48.7. Ah someone lied to me. All right But I mean like if possible they told you something and the price just changed I don't know. Hey, I will say this the total market cap. I've got 1.91 trillion So could we could we see 2 trillion today on trading view? Yeah, actually that was interesting because on trading view It's at about 1.8 the reason why this this channel and this is total market cap This is why I was talking about like if you look at total market, you can kind of see that in 2019 it Tagged that trend line sort of a midpoint of the trend line Uh just before rate cuts and we're getting kind of close um So I think in order to get there bitcoin needs to go up another like what 10 10 15 percent or so to get there um Yeah Yeah All right, so interesting. All right, everybody. So that will conclude that part now. Let's just do a little bit of uh of q&a Let's see what I got here. I did comments starred First of all, thank you armand for becoming a member appreciate the five dollars Let's see congratulations everybody. I that's another thing Congratulations everybody because you just front run you just front ran The largest institution on the planet for assets that are management, which would be black rock So if you were here before yesterday, congratulations, you've got everything. Well actually before october Uh, you've done a pretty fantastic job. Let's see someone says bitcoin cross 48. Oh, excuse me bring it to 50k I'm sorry Uh No, well now that we know now that we know you're getting getting into more bitcoin rob I mean that that I think is enough to to push it past 50k I think so I think I mean I might I might personally bring it to 2 trillion. Who knows So I can't see the rest of rob shirt. So as we all know I had a bet and I lost to simon dixon about the etf So I said I would wear it but I didn't say I would show everything So i'm gonna get the grand reveal when I go on simon dixon's channel. I'll let you know what that is What a tease I suppose so let's see Ah, when will the rotation to alts happen? I know we just talked about that I like guys had a good theory which was essentially like the crypto degenerates are already rotating out And then ben has a good statement that look he goes, you know as time goes on We can see those pairs kind of collapse and we can see everything go back to bitcoin I personally look at these things and today and the next weeks are going to really tell a big tale Because if If black rock and their marketing machine and fidelity and all those people can say hey, this is where you want to be You want to be into bitcoin and they start to believe them Then all this old money and newt whatever you want to call it big money Will come in and then all the djens like ourselves will flow into other alt coins and You'll see a little bit of a pump But I still think that there's a lot of money sloshing around I mean real estate itself is 327 trillion dollars So our 285 trillion dollars as far as like global So I don't see why we can't have some of that come into there And then of course pensions and and retirements and so on so forth Let's see Can you show us your t-shirt again sure it's right here? I love let's see Oh, and of course everybody's Everybody's saying poor ben because ben didn't get in let me tell you something ben how You've been buying bitcoin this whole time as I remember. I mean I bought most of my buys were in late 2022 That's nothing wrong with that Yeah I mean look I haven't I've missed not on the alt coin market. That's for sure But yeah, no, I mean I I've just I've just stayed bitcoin heavy and I mean I I think my thesis like The dominance thesis has played out. I think fairly well But I mean there's no denying that there's been money to be made in the alt coin market and It's just the way it goes That's true I've I've said it before and I'll say again once once ben starts getting into alt coins. That's when we get excited That's when that's when it's really on can you imagine the alt coin top? How about this one about and we I forget about this but bitcoin miners Is anybody invested into that? Yeah, yeah, so I mean I've actually been into into one of them for a while um, who but I think the moves and them are probably gonna fade in the next like month or so The main the main one that I I'd been in was um marathon Mara. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, but I Yeah, I think that It's it's I think it's getting sort of a final move over the next like few weeks And then it'll probably cool down for a few months. So it's it's kind of I mean it's kind of late at this point. I think but um Yeah, those are my those are my views. I think one more Pop and then fade for a little bit and then probably go up again You know sometime later Yeah, mara. I had some of that guy. Did you get any of that any of that mining riot mara? I don't have any I don't have any mining stocks. I do actually have Uh, I do actually have a rig running not myself But I um, I did an interview on on clips with a uh with with a guy who runs a mining operation out here And uh, he set me up with with an acyc and I've got uh an acyc running in one of his uh in one of his farms So I'm yeah, I'm and uh, yeah getting getting bitcoin revenue from that Excellent. Yeah, I I bought mara a while ago, but I haven't gotten like into what you're doing interesting Uh, someone says there's a rejection by the 200 week on the eith bitcoin I don't know. That's true Can I we touched? I just want to um, we touched but you touched earlier rob very briefly on the bitcoin ecosystem um You know like stacks and um Uh brc 20s and ordinals and things like that. Yeah for anyone like interested that is that there is some fascinating stuff Happening in the bitcoin ecosystem at the moment because we did a video a couple of weeks ago. We covered a report by uh thesis which is a sort of bitcoin focused web 3 company And some of the stuff that was in that report was absolutely fascinating Like obviously everyone kind of knows about ordinals and brc 20s. Everyone knows about the lightning network Sidechains like stacks, etc, etc. There is so much. There's so much other cool stuff happening. Um, you know There's a bitcoin. There's a bitcoin virtual machine That can apparently be implemented without a without even a soft fork Um, there's you know, there's projects. Uh, there's a project on cosmos called Babylon Which is planning to use staked btc to secure proof of stake chains. Um There's something called taproot assets which are incredibly complicated But they're like they're like brc 20s, but better according to this according to this report. We covered um There's a there's a wallet layer being developed that is going to apparently allow for like sort of metamask style functionality on bitcoin So there could be like that could be a big narrative to watch over the next year or so next year a couple of years You know, everyone talking about inflows into btc the etfs and stuff the bitcoin ecosystem itself There is some genuinely fascinating stuff happening there and that could you know, I've seen I've seen people saying that this is You know, it's it's at a very early stage. You know, it's it's sort of Way way back where ethereum was a few years ago in terms of kind of development and potential But there is stuff happening there. So it's it's worth keeping an eye on that excellent well said and I'll just leave it like this guys are coming up on an hour Is it too late to sell a kidney nfa? Of course, you only need one and I used to work in dialysis as a matter of fact And you only need 50 percent of the function of one kidney to actually stay off dialysis So that's just a a little random tip for from from rock for you if you want to sell your kidney Most degenerate thing I've ever heard You only need one in fact you only need half of one No, you only 15 and then you know, if you have enough kidney function and you you know anyhow So guys we're so back. We're so back. We're so back. So that's it for today So everybody if you like today's video give it a thumbs up consider subscribing Everything we talk about is time sensitive especially with nfa, but that's it for today I know we have it on the guys channel next week, correct? That's right. Yeah, okay So this is going to be a crazy week. Hopefully it's uh I mean guys, it doesn't matter what you really get into right now. Congratulations. You beat everybody That's it for today. So thanks guys and we'll see you on the next one Yeah, see you everyone See you soon. See you soon