 So hello everyone and you are all very welcome to what is our annual YPN Christmas special for 2023. So we host this event every year to, first of all, celebrate Christmas, but obviously to discuss some very important issues. Typically what we do for this event is we actually look back to some of the events that have taken place in the previous year, but we're actually going to do something a bit different today and we're going to look ahead to the political year ahead. So obviously next year will be very significant for both the EU, the UK and the United States given some very important landmark elections which will take place, but also in terms of the political developments which will take place in general. So we're absolutely delighted to be joined by such a distinguished panel here today who are going to discuss all of these various issues respectively. So firstly I'm going to introduce Katrina Perry who is the chief presenter at BBC News. Characteristically she joins us on the on the telly here beside us based in Washington DC. She's worked as a broadcast news correspondent since 2000 and she was previously the co-anchor of RTE 61 News which is the most watched news programme in Ireland. She was RTE News's Washington correspondent and bureau chief from November 2013 to January 2018 and she's published two books, The Tribe, The Inside Story and Irish Power and Influence in US Politics and In America, Tales from Trump Country, the latter of which was shortlisted for the best Irish non-fiction book of the year in 2017. And I noted also Katrina from your bio that you were shortlisted as Ireland's most stylish woman 2018 in the Peter Mark VIP Style Awards, but I might give you a run for your money tonight with my pennies Christmas jumper that I have on me here. So but Katrina just over to you obviously we'll know you all from our TV screens but obviously you've moved to Washington in recent times. How are things in Washington and what do you think will be some of the big political issues for the year ahead? Thanks Sarah and thanks for inviting me along. I don't have as good a Christmas jumper as you but I'm wearing a sort of festive green and red dress if you can see there especially for the occasion. No mulch wine and mince pies because it's only lunchtime here but good luck to you all having a nice evening there. It's going to be a roller coaster of a year in 2024. I feel like we say that nearly every year that there's US presidential election because just you know so many of us in Ireland and around the world look to see what happens in the US and who's running to hold that most powerful seat in the Oval Office. And this year is a really interesting one because it's almost like there are two incumbent presidents in that we have obviously Joe Biden there and we have Donald Trump looming large and both look at this point to be the nominees for their respective parties and I will just stress the at this point because obviously each of them have their own set of issues and circumstances that may or may not mean that they're both there on the ballot paper next November and we can get into that in a bit if you want. But nevertheless on the Republican side of the House people are doing what politicians do best and that's giving each other a run for their money to try and have have a go at getting that seat in the Oval Office themselves. In terms of the issues for the election you know they're the kind of the evergreen issues here in the US I suppose of abortion and of the economy of immigration. Farm policy is likely to play a greater role in next year's campaign than perhaps it has in the past due to the powerful position that China is in now and that kind of balancing that we're seeing between the US and China between President Biden and President Xi and their relationship that they have to each other and also of course what's the situation in the Middle East at the moment with that until now and wavering support that the US has had for Israel and obviously we've seen a change in tone in the language coming from the administration just in the last really 48 hours or thereabouts that's likely to be an issue in the campaign at least the early part of next year and you know most Americans statistically every cycle don't really make up their mind until you get to sort of September October of the run in the immediate run in a couple of months before the election and you know it's a week is a long time in politics a day is a long time in politics in this part of the world and definitely given everything that's going on in the world at the moment the run that we still have to polling day really anything could happen. In terms of Biden's presidency and how you think the US voter perceives that obviously we've seen some of the polling data Trump it seems is is marginally ahead at least within the polls at the moment though as you say anything can change how would you assess assess you know how successful Biden's presidency has been so far obviously there've been some major legislative wins that he's had on initiatives but maybe that's not translating into support for him in the polls support for him in the polls in the way one might think it would. Yeah that's an excellent point Tara if you look on paper at Biden's presidency it's been a tremendously successful presidency he got that infrastructure act passed anyone who's holiday to work in the US will know the state of the roads the train networks all of that and that's something that hasn't been addressed for many many decades really so the massive package that Biden was able to get forward is a major win and also he's created the most jobs and for many many years 11 million jobs have been created since he took over unemployment is that the lowest rate it's been for 54 years alongside that however inflation is at a 40 year high as well and wage just have not kept pace with that in fact the average wage if you adjust it for inflation wages are actually down three or four percent since Biden took over the office so while you know he's other great successes if you were to assess them independently like the IRA which not so welcome in Europe in terms of what it does for subsidies and all of that but very welcome in terms of what it does in the US again creating jobs in the green tech space and bringing manufacturing backs to certain parts of the country but ultimately people look at their own life and what they can afford and whether they perceive themselves to be more or less well off since somebody became president and a lot of people would consider themselves to be far less well off notwithstanding that they may have a job now that they didn't have before like I said the wages aren't keeping pace with the cost of living not to similar to the situation in in Ireland many parts of the world so you know that's why you kind of see the situation where Joe Biden as I say on paper having what would be mutually described as a successful presidency he still has a really high unfavorable rating you know the unfavorability rating for himself and Donald Trump are in and around the same 52-54 percent thereabouts and so that's never a good position to be in it's not an unusual position to be in but it's not one that a sitting president would want to find themselves and then there has been a lot of debate recently as I say about the situation in the Middle East and the positions that Joe Biden has taken up there so his health is a big factor as well in terms of polling and what people talk about and so you know it it'll be interesting to see as we get nearer the action looking at national polls at this point in time or really at any point in time has to be taken with a pinch of salt and because they're just so broad and such a massive country it's really impossible to capture any kind of accurate sample size but when you go looking at people in individual states and in some of those handful of states that actually are going to matter come election day given how this this country sets up how it picks its president they're what really matters and again there's still that unfavorability rating there and you mentioned particularly you know the US's stance on the on the Middle East and obviously since this is a group of young people you know what's your sense on how that has landed with younger voters in the United States particularly given that they would be so critical to President Biden's base in the next election yeah there is a real split along the lines there in the demographics and the age profile and the and again geographic obviously people who would be kind of very supportive and long-term and supporters of the US's unwavering pro-israel position are in certain pockets of the country who are going to vote democrat and vote for Joe Biden anyway and then it's in other pockets of the country and with that younger base where you see people turning up to protests just as we've seen in other parts of the world and calling for the US to you know call for a ceasefire to not veto the various resolutions that have come through the UN Security Council and the General Assembly and just for the US to be a little firmer in how it deals with Israel and again we've seen that language change I think quite interestingly just in the last two or three days in terms of the messaging that's coming from the President himself and also from his National Security Advisor his Defence Secretary in terms of a stronger appeal to Israel while also saying it has the right to self-defense but just appealing it to us to be more cautious of how it's handling civilians and of how it's handling the humanitarian crisis which is just getting worse by the hour. And you spoke about President Trump and all of the various legal troubles that he's experiencing at the moment how do you think those issues will play out in 2024? Well that's a really interesting one I mean the President, former President Trump is facing 91 charges for separate indictments in four separate three states and DC as well so that's going to take up a lot of his time next year. It doesn't seem to be really causing him a problem with voters at this point and that stems from a lot of how people in this country and particularly those who would vote for Donald Trump anyway view elites, view the law, view the justice system, view the unfairness of that who would consider that the justice system or the legal system is set against certain parts of society and the President, the former President is doing, sorry I keep calling him the President because in this country they don't use former everyone holds on to their title until forever basically. Well he still thinks he's the President though. Yeah but it's you know they always refer to President or Ambassador or Secretary or whatever even if the person hasn't held that role whereas we would obviously put the word former in there or earthy sugar whatever but anyway he's going to spend a lot of next year in court cases in courtrooms defending himself but actually in the great tradition of Donald Trump knowing how to use television in particular and use the media you know that's kind of free air time for him so while all the networks here have vowed not to cover rallies live anymore as they did in 2016 a lot of them are giving massive wall-to-wall coverage anytime he has a court appearance and obviously the court case in Georgia is going to be televised so you can expect ratings for that to be in the realm of what we saw for the OJ Simpson trial or the Louise Woodward trial in fact if people remember that one and so every time he's in court it's Donald Trump in the headlines Donald Trump being talked about and you know he'd subscribe to to the old Oscar Wildadage of you know the only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about so he uses that massively to his advantage so while he'll be tied up in a lot of this it's not going to cost him air time and in fact he's using that platform as I said to appeal to people that you know he's the system is against him and he's going to put him back in office and he'll challenge that system for the good of everyone I heard something bizarre today in the radio that he's I think he's taking the wool from his suit that he wore for his mugshot or something like that and he's selling it online or something like that to his to his donors and his supporters I mean it's indicative of as you say the airtime he gets out of these things but also the bizarreness of some all of it really you know but thank you so much Katrina and I'm just conscious Katrina has to leave at about 10 past seven owing to the to the busy news day in BBC but obviously great to have you here so I might cycle across to the other two panelists just so we can get some questions in as well but our next panelist we're absolutely delighted to be joined by Bobby McDonough who is former Irish ambassador to the United Kingdom the European Union Italy and Malaysia at the Department of Foreign Affairs he was EU director general and later deputy secretary general he worked in the secretariat of the European Parliament for three years and at the European Commission in the cabinet of two Irish commissioners he's written and spoken extensively about the EU and British Irish relations and he is now a public commentator and works as an executive coach so if you're looking for any coaching you know where to go but Bobby just I suppose the same question for you in terms of the the UK political landscape you know I hear in the last few days for example there could be some news about a restoring of the executive in Northern Ireland I know me hell Martin was speaking about this as well in the last few days but but your sense of the big political issues that will feature in 2024 in the UK well I think the biggest issue will be the election an election has to be held by January 2025 but I don't I think there's a strong expectation now that the election would take place in October rather than through the December January period which is not a good time for an election and that's assuming that Rishi Sunak can survive that long because he he's you know rather daft ideas on sending asylum seekers through and upsets both wings of this party you know those who don't want to run any risk of breaking international law and those that are really enthusiastic to do it comprehensively so he managed to get his bill through Parliament this week reasonably comfortably but if all those who have staying voted against and many of them are threatening to then he would lose a vote in Parliament and he can't afford to go too far towards the extreme right for fear of losing the moderates but I think that that election will not just dominate in terms of the vote taking place but I think all of the issues will be seen through that prism the the conservative party um at least Rishi Sunak he doesn't have a very clear set of priorities I mean what is clear is that pretty well everything will be done primarily with the view to electoral positioning rather than to running the country but in January of this year he set out five priorities then in November he set out two different five priorities with only a limited overlap between them and at the party conference in October he came up with a different set of sort of a scatter gone set of priorities including weakening the conservatives approach to the green agenda introducing a new education post-16 arrangement diminishing smoking over time it was really scattered gone so I think you know it's hard to see which of those issues will dominate the agenda I think there will be a lot of focus on incompetence of the government I think it's very likely that the Labour Party will will win the election I mean all the polls suggest that as Katrina says you know it's not only up until the very end that people's definitive voting intentions have become clear but the poll lead is so large for the Labour Party that it seems very likely that they will win and Kirsten Armour is being very cautious somebody said he's like a football team that's one nail up with five minutes to play so he's not he's not trying to score any goals he's just trying to to ensure that the polls stay the way they are and I think a lot of the issues domestically and the way they're handled by the government reflect divisions within the Conservative Party that have been there for many decades the divisions appeared for a long time to be about Europe and Brexit but now that Brexit has been done they're a they're a cultural war about other things so you see it on the migration issue you see it on climate change where there's a wing of the party that you know it doesn't doesn't believe in addressing it and you see it on migration and and and almost any issue you can think of then on external issues that would be prominent I mean clearly Ukraine would be prominent but on that the British have a very clear position and a very admirable position and there's unity between the Conservatives and Labour on that on the Middle East again I mean Kirsten Armour is playing it very cautiously not calling for a ceasefire but he's managed the divisions on that in his party despite the resignation of eight ministers and the negative votes of I think 56 MPs it was all done in a relatively constructive way they're not at each other's throats the way people are in the Conservative party and I think that that problem will largely solve itself for Stammer because of the continued behaviour of the Israeli government he doesn't have to move towards the ceasefire the ceasefire will move towards him that's that's I think you know Katrina has mentioned the changing language in in the US you know with President Biden describing the Israeli approaches indiscriminate so I think that issue will become more comfortable for Stammer and then the other external issue is of course relations with the European Union which have reached a stable phase not merely as bad as they were I think the fact that the rhetoric has been toned down isn't itself really important because we had all of the Johnson and Trosiers with Johnson and his acolytes comparing the European Union to Nazi Germany and to the Soviet Union you're absolutely absurd stuff and that has changed the mood has changed it's it's more constructive the UK had joined Horizon and the Windsor framework has for the moment deep probably permanently solved the the issue that arose from Northern Ireland from Brexit but I don't see any further leaps forward in the relationship I could say something about what Labour might do but maybe doesn't leave my remarks at that for the moment yeah but on that particular question about you know a Labour government I suppose firstly maybe you know do you think it is now an unassailable lead for the for the Labour in the polls I mean obviously we know coming up to elections things can change or do you think Sunak and the Tories have essentially thrown in the towel already and are sort of you know managing the losses at this stage I don't think they've thrown in the towel as in a fight against Labour but they're fighting each other all the time you know they're deeply divided as a party and no election is entirely predictable in advance but the polls put Labour so far ahead but I mean Stammer himself is not wildly popular I think you know his negative rating is around minus 52 or something like that but he has two things going from one is that an awful lot of the public don't like the Tories they don't like party gates they don't like the way that you know Boris Johnson clearly lied in Parliament and the other thing is the Stammer is a safe pair of hands he's not somebody that people fall in love with but people can envisage him as a Prime Minister and so nothing is ever certain but if somebody offered me good odds I'd spend a lot of money on it on the bookies I mean it's I was thinking before this discussion today obviously you were the ambassador between 2009 and 2013 if I'm not mistaken yeah and during that was obviously the Queen's visit and I think at that period you know there was a sense that you know UK Irish relations we were you know after the period of the Good Friday Agreement we had a peacetime period relations were at their pinnacle at that point and it sometimes strikes me just how you know how much those relations have deteriorated in that period in 13 years and since then where we are today versus where we are then I mean do you think there's any prospect if Labour were to get into power that we might see a change in that or you know have relations been so badly damaged that that might not be possible well you're right about the period when I happened to be there it was an ideal time for me in British Irish relations because the Good Friday Agreement was under everybody's belt and the madness of Brexit hadn't set in you know Shakespeare in one of his sonnet says when I consider everything that grows holds in perfection but a little moment and so when the Queen laid the wreath in the Garden of Remembrance and President McElise laid the wreath for the tens of thousands of Irish people who died in British uniform that was a perfect moment but the problem was that the two things that made that moment possible were the European Union and the peace process and Brexit of course damaged that in many ways took the the British out of the European Union but also the attitude that they displayed to the European Union when Johnson went for the hardest possible Brexit rather than reflecting the centre of gravity of British opinion when he was dismissive of of of the European Union and then of course as everybody sensible predicted including conservatives like Chris Patton and John Major Brexit upset the Northern Ireland situation inevitably because Europe was the air that the Good Friday Agreement breathed and because the European Union made borders less important so you know the the the high point in relations inevitably declined but I do think they're stabilizing somewhat I think you know Sunak is a normal human being and the fact he signed up to the Windsor framework shows that he he doesn't at least in that area want to break international law and that he values the relationship with European Union so it's hard to take it beyond where it now is but I think I don't see it as an entirely negative story I don't think first of all that relations went back to the bad old days I didn't go that far and I think where they fell to they've started to pick up again when I saw me hall Martin in London yesterday with David Cameron I mean sometimes symbolism matters you know I don't know the details of what they discussed but you're seeing two such you know sensible basically decent people I mean me all Martin set south evidently is but David Cameron he made a massive mistake by calling the Brexit referendum and he'll he'll never be forgiven or forgotten for that but he's you know he's he's sensible on Europe in the end despite his crazy referendum he campaigns passionately albeit too late for it and he gets Ireland you know he he handled the Savile report brilliantly he wrote his own speech for the House of Commons which got spontaneous applause outside the Guildhall in Derry and having seen him occasionally when the tissue were over visiting I could see just from his body language that he he got Europe and he got Ireland and so I think that's I'm not a spokesman for every camera anything like that but I think it's a positive element in the way things are picking up then about Labour I mean Labour have traditionally understood Ireland better than the Tories did over the way sweep of history and I think John John Major that certainly began to understand it and maybe against her own instincts she signed the Anguirus Agreement and John Major was immensely courageous and has worked with Albert Reynolds in some ways more courageous than Tony Blair because he had to face down exactly the same crazy people in this party that that sooner has to deal with but but the Labour Party you know throughout all that time you know Jim Callaghan, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown they get they get the thing more so I think that if Starmer comes in the relationship will probably improve further and I think two dimensions of that standout one is any improvement with the European Union between the UK and the European Union represents an improvement in UK Irish relations because Ireland is an integral part of the European Union and the European Union is an integral part of us and you know Starmer has spoken about for example reaching a veterinary agreement with the European Union which would help to resolve the Unionist difficulties with the the Windsor framework and he might deepen and have a slightly more formal approach to cooperation on foreign and security policy issues like the Ukraine which will be very important he might rejoin Erasmus so I think that will represent a further step I think there's a limit and maybe a little bit of lack of realism on his part as to how far he can take it because there has always been you know an equilibrium balance between the benefits that the UK can get from Europe and the commitments that it makes to Europe so you can't have access to the single market without accepting removing to people and all that and you know Starmer may be a little bit unrealistic as to how far he can take all of that but I think that will the further progress he will make will be positive and the other is that on Northern Ireland the big thing that has been lacking since Johnson came in has been the fact that the British and Irish governments must work together on Northern Ireland as they did since the mid 80s and Johnson didn't get it well he didn't get anything and Sunak doesn't really get it and I don't think the people around him are telling him about it but the reality is that every serious progress there was be made or could be made was the two governments working together so if you take the legacy bill where the Sunak government has is pressing ahead with the bill with which every single party in Northern Ireland is in disagreement and for internal Tory political reasons because he wants to appeal to to some of the right-wing Tories by saying you know British soldiers can't be further prosecuted but the point is you could argue about the ins and outs of the legacy bill I don't think anybody wants to see people in their late 80s being put in prison but it is right I think that that people who have lost loved ones should receive some form of vindication but the point here is that they should not have proceeded with it in disagreement with the Irish government so the Irish government is going to decide by January whether it will take the British government to the court of human rights in Strasbourg as it had to do back in the 70s you know and I don't know I mean they're getting legal advice on it but if if Starmer A moves to an even better relationship with Europe and B understands as all Johnson's predecessors did going back to Mrs Thatcher that the two governments need to work together then that will represent another really important step forward absolutely I'm sure progress in Northern Ireland as well in that respect and I do want to take some questions for Katrina if that's okay people have them so does anyone have any questions about the US so I see two hands there and I'll go to Connor first thank you so much I'm not ignoring you by the way thanks very much for the insight this could be the year of the third party breakout in the US what do you think the likelihood of this and who shall we be listening to or talking to or hearing about I don't think it's going to be the year of a third party breakout not to rain on your parade there but I think while there is an appetite most definitely among voters to vote for people other than Joe Biden and Donald Trump and that's coming across quite clearly in the polling even from entrenched Democrats and entrenched Republican voters I think the running from now to polling day is actually too short for any kind of third party party as such to get up and running individual candidates again the the system is kind of stacked against them like if you even look at ORFK as he's being called here you know he has to get 1.5 million signatures to get on the ballot he has to get 15 percent in polls to get to the presidential debate stages that's extremely difficult for people to do what he has going for him is name recognition and again that's coming across in polls that you know sort of 13 14 15 percent of people have never heard of him which is a very small number for a third party candidate um but I I just think I just don't see it happening now I could be wrong and you know anyone who claims that this removed to know what's going to happen next November is foolish but um I just don't see it happening this year and I think it's something that would need to burn for quite a while ahead of any polling day to really make an impact okay thanks very much I think it was Dipo as well is that you yep hi I'm Dipo um you just started answering my question with your last answer there's going to be a lot of voter apathy in these coming new year selections especially with younger and new voters so my baby sister is a first time voter next year she just turned 18 and in the last six months she has supported Trump then Biden then Trump then Biden and I think now she's on Trump's side I know that by next month she'll be on Biden's side now if you were to like Mr McDonald said like gets a book he gave you like good odds and you wanted to place a bet what do you think voter apathy is going to affect the most in the next year selections not to sit on the fence but actually I think it's going to affect both candidates in almost almost equal measure I think it's going to come down to the capacity of voters who you know are declared Democratic or Republican voters it's going to come down to who can kind of bear with it the most and kind of if you want to use the expression hold their nose and do it anyway kind of thing um which was a similar situation that we saw in 2016 with Clinton and Trump and the Republicans were just more able to kind of back their guy even though again we had unpopular candidates there so I think I think voter apathy will be an issue but I think we'll see like 2020 we'll see record numbers of people actually voting in the heel of the hunt and because there's going to be again a mobilization of voters and I think people are are feeling engaged in the process in a way that if they don't vote for someone it's essentially a vote for the other candidate because of how things are stacked up here in the US but I think your sister's story is is quite an interesting one and would be reflected because in many ways policy wise there's a lot quite similar between Biden and Trump particularly on the economic front you know Biden economics is all about like bringing jobs and manufacturing and all of that back into the middle of America and bringing back the good old days kind of thing which also is a key part of um Donald Trump's sort of economic policy of C and foreign policy they're very far apart but um I think you'll see a lot of flip-flopping like that I think the polls are again probably not going to be terribly accurate I think you're going to see people telling pollsters one thing or another or saying they're undecided and then doing something different um where they actually go into vote whether that's by postal voting ahead of time or on the day itself okay thanks so much one more over here so just a quick question do you think that Trump is even guaranteed his party's nomination because obviously we still don't understand this Nikki Haley he's still battling it battling it out so yeah is there a foregone conclusion that he's taken that nomination um it's not a foregone conclusion definitely not um and you know like I was saying earlier there's a long way from here to polling day he's so far ahead of Rhonda Santos and Nikki Haley even when you look at the polls that matter very soon which are those in Iowa and New Hampshire which might give an indication of actually how people are going to vote um Donald Trump is still so far ahead I think the Republican Party you know as much as there are many of them not comfortable with Donald Trump as the sort of head of their party they're less comfortable about not having the Oval Office um you know and it's it's kind of what people will do to have that seat of power it's not a foregone conclusion but it's very likely at this point um but you just never know I mean if if Nikki Haley or Rhonda Santos end up doing really well in Iowa and New Hampshire the calendar the primary calendar is set up a little differently this year there's a big gap by two weeks between those two votes and Nevada and then South Carolina is another week or so back from that so that's quite a long time that means anyone with momentum will slow whereas in previous cycles there's only been six or seven days between those first early primary states so that can mean momentum can change money can change um so I think it's not a foregone conclusion I don't think you can say for sure it will be Biden v Trump next November but I think it's quite likely that he will be the nominee at this point in time but anything can happen last call for questions for Katrina oh one more at the back hi Katrina and my name is Katie and thank you so much for speaking with us today and my question is on do you think that the the rest of the world and maybe more specifically the western world needs to be quite worried about the political landscape that is going on in the US right now and maybe even start considering a world where the US is no longer considered to be a major superpower because you have one candidate of the two that are highly likely you have one candidate that is probably going to bring everything back to America and ignore the rest of the world to the detriment and you have another candidate who is seen as the better candidate but isn't strong and doesn't necessarily have the support of his of the house or the senate when necessary and then you also under his presidency you have his representative in the in the UN blocking aid to Gaza and using their power of veto so do you think this is something that the rest of the world needs to start worrying about I think the US position relating to Israel and Gaza is not unique to Joe Biden the US has blocked something like 40 resolutions over the years at the security council relating to you know age or assistance to Gaza so that's not unique to Joe Biden and that's a long-held US foreign policy position I think there are conversations going on already not I think I know there are conversations going on already amongst other countries about democracy in the US which sends bizarre to even say it loud that you know EU member states and other nations would be having those kind of conversations at this point about the United States but I think you know ultimately every nation acts out of self-interest first and that's kind of how the international system is set up I think we're seeing a weakened UN and I think that's probably something that the international community should be focusing on as well and it's proven itself you know very not terribly relevant let's put it that way when it comes to the situation the Middle East and the situation in Ukraine previous to that and but I mean voters in a country it's up to them who they who they vote in essentially that's not for me to comment on maybe just one more before you go Katrina you know I was I lived in Washington DC for a summer I interned in Chuck Schumer's office in the Senate a few years ago one thing that struck me about the the media landscape in the US is I mean you turn on the TV you know you have CNN saying one thing the democratic talking points you turn on Fox News it's the Republican talking points you know I think your outlet does very good work in terms of providing an objective point of view and news source but you know is there such thing really as a public square in the US and I think this is particularly important coming up to the next election where people can get their information independently and factually about political debates coming up to the election that's a really interesting question Dara and I think it applies not just to the US actually in a way that issue about the public sphere public square and where you get information it applies in Ireland in Europe in many places now that people are are switching off from mainstream media providers and getting their information elsewhere and you know thank you for the compliment to the BBC but that is what we're trying to do here that's part of the expansion why I'm working here now is is to be that sort of bring that public service public sector ethos to things about being neutral and objective you have that here already in NPR radio and PBS the TV network but they're very small they're very badly funded and they can't compete in terms of the cash that flows to the networks who have a specific agenda and to cater for viewers who want a specific viewpoint push forward to them so I would say that there isn't one particular place that people can go to on a wide scale and get all of that neutral information that you're describing there so it's kind of it's up to journalists it's up to civil society civic society educators universities so on I suppose to try and inform people and equip people with the tools to get to the neutral or source information when you have to get through so many other individuals and platforms who are curating things for you based on algorithms and based on what you've clicked on before. Yeah and great that we have the likes of yourself over there continuing to do that work so thank you so much Katrina for your time this evening it's been great to have you and wishing you and yours a very happy Christmas. And same to you my apologies for having to duck out early and have a lovely evening. Thank you so much and please give Pauls for Katrina thank you so much. Excellent moving now to my esteemed colleague who I haven't forgotten Dylan Marshall so Dylan Casey Marshall is a researcher here at the Institute of International and European Affairs working on EU affairs he holds an MA in Transnational Governance from the European University Institute in Florence an NLLB in International and European Law from the Hague University of Applied Sciences. Prior to joining the IAA Dylan was a correspondent and editor with the Pan-European Media Project Europalex which many of you may know which aggregates, analyzes and contextualizes election and polling data across Europe for a pan-continental and international audience. He also worked at the Feltronelli Foundation, Shannon Aaron and the European Federation of Public Service Unions. So Dylan is going to speak to us this evening about the European Union and all of the various changes that we will have there with a new European Commission obviously with the European elections taking place in June and potentially a new president of the European Council as well. So Dylan over to you what do you think the main issues will be in 2024 in the European Union in EU politics and how do you see those various changes playing out? Yeah so there's some in EU policy making it's kind of a bit different than the US the UK that there aren't hot button specific topics that come up due to the nature of policy making in the EU. There's overarching issues that continue for many many years these include obviously climate change, war in Ukraine, the Middle East crisis, migration and so those will persist in the next year particularly going into the European elections. So right now the European Parliament for the basic entire history of the European Parliament has been governed by a coalition of the Socialists, the Liberals and the EPP, so a grand coalition between the three parties but this potentially could change after the next European elections given current numbers from just last month November 2023. It seems like the right wing of the House which includes the EPP, the European Conservative and Informist group and identity democracy which would be on the far right, they collectively have about 120 more seats projected than the left of the House and it doesn't seem now given the current numbers that the grand coalition that has governed the European Union over the past years will be able to keep that centre whole to secure a majority and additionally in the council which is extremely important for proposing the President of the European Commission. There is currently depending how you identify far right either three or four members of the far right sitting in the European Council at the moment and so for proposing the President of the European Commission officially and legally you just need a qualified majority but politically there is at least consensus if not unanimously in these respects. So at the moment it looks like this bits and come it out in process which took place for the last two European elections is not going to be followed after the the ask of 2019. This is where each of the European political parties proposed a lead candidate to then become president of the European Commission and so far the Green Party, the European Green Party has initiated the process to identify a lead candidate but the two major parties the EPP and the part of European Socialists who this time in 2018 before the 2019 elections had already identified their lead candidate they have not said one single word about this lead candidate process so it seems like this is gone and so ahead of the elections it looks like the European Union and the European institutions themselves are very focused on trying to get turnout up because historically turnout has been very low for European elections and so that's a real priority they're pushing forwards and also trying to deliver on key issues of climate change you know look have a good look coming out of the cop and show that the EU is as it likes to brand itself a world leader and really show that this is the case and then there's certain issues that will just come up in every election like cost of living living standards that a lot of people particularly in countries like Germany feel like their living standards are decreasing quite a lot and their economy is stagnating which will have knock-on effects for the wider European economy and then issues and so then Europe and Europe as a whole like that never go away such as migration will persist and I suppose just on some of those issues and obviously you know in terms of the the spitting candidate out in process is the implication of that that we may see Ursula von der Leyen re-elected as commission president how likely would you see that being and I suppose how would you assess the performance of her commission and its current mandate at the moment well according to the treaties that govern the the operation of the EU the European Commission president and the composition of the European Commission has to reflect the results of the European parliamentary elections what that actually means is another thing but given current polling EPP are well ahead of the second biggest grouping the socialists and I would say Ursula von der Leyen has had some scandals and controversies but very few of these have really trickled down to national media and have caused headlines in national media and she is generally seen as a amongst important policy makers generally confident uncontroversial unbalance the European Commission president and given that I can see quite a high likelihood that she gets re-elected or at least re-proposed for the European Parliament to vote on because it goes from the European Council proposed to the European Parliament to then vote on whether they accept the president and so I would say in all likelihoods there is a good possibility that she could continue and but it could be similar to 2019 when a candidate comes out of nowhere like no one expected Ursula von der Leyen to be president of the European Commission this time in 2018 and and then on her time I would say in 2019 she set out six priorities on all of them I would say she did mediocre some better than others but I don't think she really did amazingly at any of them that's down to a lot of issues like unforeseen things happening COVID you didn't expect that to happen in 2019 when she was saying her priorities also a full scale war on the continent of Europe and the implications that has for energy the economy all these things so I'd say she's done decent but not amazing and then a lot of the things that she could have done better and her policies have in my opinion have been very reactive and not proactive such as the industrial policy she was reactive to the US she was reactive to unilateral decisions by EU member states that the governments took and given the state of the world she could have seen and the lacking state of the European economy she could have seen maybe a European wide industrial policy is needed rather than waiting for the US seeing the fallout and the response of European business maybe just one more before I throw it open to the yeah yeah go ahead yeah yeah I was ambassador to the EU as well yes of course thank you very much to learn for that I would be a little bit more optimistic about things I mean I don't see the extreme right becoming while they are on the rise in some places becoming in any sense a dominant force so not no indeed were you were you saying that I mean you have Poland has switched from the far right or relatively far right to the center left Spain has a center left government the UK although it's not in the European Union but it's moved to a more constructive position on Europe and you know it's just my my instinct is so European and I hope it doesn't cloud my judgment but I think the Europe has performed very well in many areas you know providing some leadership at COP on on climate change introducing the first AI legislation reacting very well on COVID after a shaky start reacting very well on on Ukraine in many ways and I think that van der Leyen has been a good president she's probably the best president since Delore and she played a big personal part in getting in drawing together the EU's response on Ukraine but I do think she made one major error which was on the Middle East where she she went to Israel in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas attack and allowed the misperception to be there that somehow she was representing the views of the member states which she wasn't and also making a misjudgment I mean it was self-evident that some sort of restraint should be urged on Israel and what they were likely to do and you know having said I think she's performed very well generally I think she got that one wrong and I think it may affect her chances of reelection we were talking about the division between young and old people and she hasn't really corrected that either she hasn't even moved after Biden has moved to making strong criticisms of Israel and many of us that mean think Biden should go further but she seems to be bound into a German mindset on that and the other thing I'd say is that especially with the prospect of Trump coming in the European Union is more important than ever I mean it does have weaknesses until in your right it doesn't do everything by any means perfectly but where else in the world is going to provide leadership on basic decency and democracy and the rule of law if the United States has a second Trump presidency it's not going to come from there it's not going to come from Putin that's not come from China so with all of the errors that Europe makes because it's in human imperfection as part of human nature and no country or organization or human being should be judged on the basis of perfection it's the populace to claim the perfect world is possible and you don't need to compromise I think Europe is with all its weaknesses warts and all is said to become even more important into the future and just on Dylan's point about the priorities how would you assess the performance on climate change I mean on the one hand there's been some very ambitious targets in terms of the European Green Deal but I suppose the implementation of that and how close we are to those at the moment well the implementation largely falls to member states you know and I think Europe has played a big part both internally in Europe and in in COP because having had a process over many years of developing internal EU policies where targets are set it's that that puts pressure on Ireland to do the things that it's doing it doesn't mean that Ireland or other countries live up to what's been agreed but there are legally binding targets and I think it's a very good example of of the soft power of the European Union and I think you know if Europe had on its own drawn up the outcome of COP it would have drawn up a different outcome but it was the first to veto the first draft of the conclusions which didn't make any reference in any form of words to phasing out fossil fuels and I think it plays a broadly benign role on that. Questions we have about seven minutes left so I'll take them quick first so I have two here anymore three okay we'll take those three together then thank you. Hi this is a question for Bobby so you said that I think as the political climate is shifting in America obviously you know there's a good possibility that Trump is going to go into another four years of presidency so I guess my question is why doesn't the EU maybe kind of shift their attention towards forming new alliances like for example you know you see a lot of really great development in Central America in Mexico and you know as bricks is forming and kind of overtaking South America it seems that there should be a little bit more emphasis perhaps on you know creating new alliances so I'm just curious as to why the EU isn't like really focusing on that moment. I think the EU works on its relations with every part of the world it's very largely with trade focus given the competences of the European Union but in terms of sort of politics and security there has been no alternative to the United States and NATO I know Ireland's not in NATO but you know in terms of the balances of power in the world Europe and the United States working together has been important for you know for a century and Europe has to hope that we won't see a reversion to Trump because it would be it would be disaster not just for the United States I mean Fiona Hill was here speaking at the US Embassy there a few weeks ago she said you know God knows what will happen she said she'd fear her for herself you know Trump would try and imprison you know go after the whole Biden family all of that but he will go after the UN he'll go after international cooperation he will withdraw from NATO and then on top of that he will give a boost to populism around the world to the crazy people like in Argentina or that you know Boris Johnson who fed off the the Trump phenomenon so I think if that happens Europe has already moved I mean they've become far more involved in Ukraine giving a lot of assistance I think it's a 20 billion pounds in military assistance 50 billion in economic assistance but they'll have to all bets are off if Trump comes back and Europe will have to go much much further to look after its own interest and to go deeper as you say into but you can't like making better relations with Latin America which it does work on it's not going to change the equation in terms of the power between China and Russia and America and the and Europe and but it's doing it all the time it's giving I think it's true to say that the European Union and its member states give far more than half of the development aid that's given in the world you know so they do work on on on developing their alliances elsewhere I also didn't fully agree with Katrina's criticism of the UN because you have to look at decision-making procedures yeah and the the UN gives vetoes to China Russia the United States and Britain and France and it's not it's not like the Irish government sitting down and deciding you know how it's going to handle the agriculture portfolio the decision-making procedures in the UN preclude the UN acting effectively on the on the Middle East as long as the the US blocks it and they preclude acting effectively on Ukraine if the Russians block it you know so it I think you know and then the decision-making procedures are locked in and the same is true in the European Union I don't think you can blame an organization for not taking decisions because the decision-making procedures preclude those decisions being taken of course Europe should have a much stronger position on the Middle East but no country wants its sovereignty in the foreign powers area to be overridden so um yeah it as I said it's imperfect but uh the Europe's greatest strengths are also its weaknesses the strength of unanimity everybody has brought along the strength of the rule of law the rule of law Europe is is is set to be the world leader on the rule of law especially if Trump comes back in but that's what prevents Europe from acting against Obama in Hungary because it can't just sit down and say let's expel Hungary or let's suspend Hungary because it has to apply the law two more and I'll take them quick fireplace just in the interest sorry but my non-quick fire reply oh no no your crap don't worry I mean more so in terms of the questions Mr. Mandona on UK elections and at the last local elections the conservatives lost over a thousand seats I saw that coming but like that's unprecedented to some numbers so do you think those local elections will have it that will do you think the next general elections will be a direct reflection of that but on a different scale so do you think it's going to see the same type of losses but not as much as a thousand because there's not as much seats on display then you talked you touched the Rwanda asylum plan but you didn't but like this is what I think what Rishi Sunak has done in the last six months with immigration is to appeal more to the far right UK citizens that don't think that anybody represents their interests in the last six months the UK has banned people from bringing dependents mistrictor rules for people to come into the UK as size the Rwanda asylum so do you think that's planned to tighten his hold on far right UK citizens is working I'll take the other one then also please if I'm still up oh yeah thank you and going back to the climate aspect of the EU and it has been hugely successful in COP 28 however there is a slew of regulations coming to the European Union at the moment necessary yes but do you think it's coming at the risk of completely hampering business within Europe and it'll be overtaken by the US and other countries of course there's very big questions yep so maybe maybe the first one to yourself Bobby and then I'll give a second one to Joe then if that's okay right so the question of the of the local elections and the national elections I mean I suppose I think Sunak is going to wait till October for the general election but he could he could do it earlier so it's not to have a huge defeat in the local elections but I think that's unlikely I think he would he will he will do very badly I think the outcome of the general election the precise outcome will be very important because the Tories almost certainly will lose a lot of seats because I'll put my money on that if they lose seats mostly in the red wall seats which were sort of pro-Brexit and not traditional conservative if if they lose most of the seats there then there's a good chance that Sunak will be strong or that his successor will be a relative moderate of the centre if on the other hand they lose more in the other part of the UK then the chances of somebody like Suad Aburrahman coming in will be there and likewise it's important for labour how big a majority they have because if they have a big enough majority that looks as those who will last for for two parliaments then you can think strategically and so the size of his victory is going to be very important on on on the Rwanda thing um I do think he's pandering to the right I think it's a it's a problem that the Conservative Party has had for decades and the touchstone was Europe but it was really about something deeper than that uh and you know I don't think the majority of British people um believe in it but they're believe in the Rwanda policy I mean after all like last year more than 700,000 migrants went to the UK and they went there because Britain needs them in the same way that our country is enriched by having having migrants but they're fixated on these people coming across on small boats it's it's not as big a problem as asylum seekers in Germany or France it's just manufactured into this into this huge issue uh if I could take one minute of your time I just I'd just like to read out something that I brought here as I was coming along because I was thinking about you know what is the basic divide in British society what what and it's mostly within the Conservative Party it's the right to conservative with with Farage and I just came I came across this thing that it was the last report I wrote in in London uh in 2013 when I was ambassador and I tried then and I think accurately to capture what what the divide in the UK is really about um I was wrong about one thing because I didn't predict Brexit but well sometimes this is the last thing I'll say well sometimes there's the impression these days that there are two Britons on the one hand there is the open tolerant modern Britain the Britain which exercises significant influence in the wider world through its engagement in international organisations through its culture and language through the reprioritisation of its foreign policy the Britain which took the London Olympics in its relaxed stride and celebrated the diversity represented by its athletes the Britain which welcomed without the batting of an eyelid the 150,000 German football fans who recently came to London for the all German Champions League final the Britain where so many Irish find a warm and welcoming home the Britain several of whose schools take the trouble of laying wreaths which I have seen at the German war cemetery near Ypres with cards bearing messages such as in memory of brave men who died for their country on the other hand there is also a more uncertain backward looking narrowly nationalistic Britain the Britain which has lost confidence in its ability to defend its interests in the multilateral and globalised world of the 21st century the Britain which increasingly allows UKIP to set the political agenda on immigration and Europe the Britain which would rather undermine an international court which played a central role in establishing and implement a straightforward ECHR judgment on prisoners voting rights the Britain which sees its values as uniquely attractive and at the same time uniquely under threat the tabloid Britain that hankers after a world of lost empire and lost certainties the Britain that replaced Ireland several years ago in thanking God that it surrounded by water I think that stands the test of time I think that's that divide is right at the heart of the Conservative party and it hasn't gone away very very nice to end it up for yourself Bobby but Dylan just very quickly on the time question I would of course put it to you Bobby as well but we are yeah so just very quickly on climate versus business dichotomy that over the past five years the commission has taken a sort of deregulatory at least rhetorically approach to decision making and the legislative process in the EU with the one in one out rule which I don't necessarily would get close one follower two is actually desirable to be looking for better regulation rather than just less regulation and then secondly like specifically on the case of climate recently they've introduced the net zero industry act which is currently going through the council and the parliament and this is the EU's direct response to the US IRA and it's gives kind of streamlined regulatory processes for new tech and green industries and businesses and things like this and it's really trying to promote small medium-sized businesses particularly in also deprived under underdeveloped areas and also cross-border projects to kind of promote obviously European integration that you're the commission would wish to see and secondly there's also the Carter border adjustment mechanism which are introduced in which will see similar to what the US is trying to do keeping production within Europe because if a good is imported into Europe then the they'll have to be an import levy on equivalent to the level of carbon that is produced if it comes in from China say so that is also trying to keep business in Europe and prosperous etc and then just like kind of more generally there is the TCTF which was brought in in response to Ukraine and Covid which allows wide array of state aid mechanisms for national governments to promote business and strategic industries and it's you know said to be time limited and targeted whether that's the case one could argue so yeah there's a lot of things that are brought in to try to keep business here whether it is successful it's ways to be seen and some big CEOs have said it doesn't go far enough compared to what the US is doing and then specifically what China's doing as well but I think we have to wait and see that you know there's famously the phrase saying there's no jobs on a dead planet there's no in economy on a dead planet so action needs to be taken and maybe it's better that we're doing it now rather than later when it will have to be much more spartan much more aggressive and that will hurt the economy more down the road so that's just my two cents I think we've seen a sense of that from the cop as well but just want to say a big thank you to our panelists both of our other panelists Bobby McDonough and to Dylan Casey Marshall a big thank you to all of you for coming along tonight there will be a few more drinks outside so please do stick around and we'll be back in the new year on the 9th of January where we will have Dr Patricia Scanlon who is Ireland's AI ambassador and we're going to have a discussion on the future of AI and what that means for Ireland and the world so I hope people see you then until then a very happy Christmas and a happy new year and see you then thank you so much