 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What's going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Comments we're getting you set for the NFL draft with Timo Riska of pro football focus breaking down their NFL draft Simulator and some props that stand out based on what that simulator says. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Ed Fang You can find his work over at the power Inc.com Ed the week of the draft is finally here I am pumped to have something that actually is happening in real time to pay attention to how you doing I'm doing great. I mean, this is probably the biggest week of sports in quarter to of 2020 Which is a really really really sad thing, but the draft is gonna be so huge I can't wait to see the ratings numbers of a bunch of people talking through zoom We're gonna broadcast this thing. I think that's gonna be super fascinating And then yeah the debut of the last dance the story of Michael Jordan is last season with the Chicago Bulls aired last night It was you know, just give giving people a chance to Talk about something and and just kind of get together and watch something. I thought it was fascinating in terms of the GM Jerry Krauss who might be the most hated Hated managerial position in all of sports, right? Like, you know, he was the one that like told them that this was their last dance like Phil Jackson wasn't coming back which meant Jordan wasn't coming back and It's kind of interesting because you wanted to show that like he could do it again Right and like rebuild and build another franchise and and I think just as a human being if you get given a lottery ticket like Michael Jordan Just be grateful and and shut up and just be grateful that you have Michael Jordan You got all those titles you will be associated with those titles Even if not given credit for those and you know and he did put in he did put some really solid pieces around Michael Jordan, but he was gifted a lottery ticket Yeah, I Haven't watched it yet. I probably should I was busy watching Westboro because I make bad decisions in my life and decided to do that instead but I like Michael Jordan is a major blind spot for me because I when I was growing up and like Paying attention to sports was when he was on the Wizards So like you I haven't gone back and like researched it my biggest exposure to Michael Jordan is Space Jam So are you that young? 28 I mean like I'm not super old right now Jim Sons I'm not super young, but like I was just I was one of the last People who I don't think it's old enough to truly appreciate Michael Jordan I I don't know enough about basketball to like pound the table for LeBron James versus Michael Jordan But like I also just know that my lack of knowledge around Michael Jordan is a pretty major blind spot in my sports fan Yeah, I mean Michael Jordan was at his peak when I was a teenager and through college and I Mean I hated him right like I was rooting against him and always rooting for the underdog Which just never worked out You know, I mean, I still think there's value in rooting for the underdog. I think in general, that's a good thing But just shows you his greatness in that you know, even people like me are really interested in hearing a story and And how this last season unfolded And I think that that's I'd not Not a contrarian opinion either. There are a lot of people I was following on Twitter We're talking about how like even though they rooted against Jordan They were so fascinated by this documentary and like I have all the DVDs of the 30 for 30 So I need to like I love documentaries like we said last week. I've been watching a ton of them Like I need to get up on this so I can actually learn a bit because it's kind of like a crash course and a cheat code People like me who may not have been necessarily old enough at the time to appreciate Michael Jordan But now I can catch up and I think that's that's a nice thing about this this documentary series Yeah, absolutely and and to learn about Jordan too is is interesting in that he was a 21 year old He was a rookie with the Bulls he knocks on like he's trying to find his teammates one night and knocks on the door and They're all in there doing coke and weed and there's a whole bunch of women in there And as a 21 year old kid, he turned around and walked out that door like he did not party He was serious as a professional and he Slept and got his energy up to be the best basketball player that he could be and I certainly wouldn't have been like that as a 21 year old kid So yeah, I mean, I just that that was a really interesting part of episode one Yeah, I'll have to catch up on that because that sounds like a pretty fun story for sure We're gonna talk with Timo risk a pro football focus today. He is a data scientist for PFF We're gonna discuss again PFF draft simulator some props that he likes based on what he's seen in those numbers Proper draft strategy for teams and things to try to avoid and stuff like that So we talked with with Timo just second find him on Twitter at PFF underscore Mu last week We had Matthew Holt of US integrity on we talked about the NFL draft and the NFL draft tool US integrity has to compare Basically a price shot for the NFL draft also talking introduction to UFC betting because it sounds like UFC may be back and Ed NASCAR talking about coming back in a couple of weeks, too So we may have a time where whether it's intelligent or not NASCAR is back in the not terribly distant future and like it's weird because I have to go back and forth because I Understand how dangerous and like everyone everyone doesn't this is not I understand how dangerous this virus is and how Bad it could be if we open things back up too soon, but selfishly I really freaking want to watch and bet on NASCAR So it's like it's hard to balance those two things out in my brain I mean you should be able to social distance and have a NASCAR event I mean assuming there's no fans members are where it makes me a little bit nervous like they do They can wear masks and they they wear gloves all the time anyway, so I think it's feasible But like I feel a little guilty about just really wanting NASCAR back I think it's okay. I think we all want society to come back and I'm freaking out a little bit about how fast it's gonna come back. Yeah, we can maybe talk about later, but yeah But I don't feel guilty. Okay. Good. I feel better about that for sure If you want to hear the discussion with Matthew Holt, just check out covering this spread wherever you listen to your podcast Spotify Apple podcast stature the Google Play Store. We are there everywhere and while you're there if you like what you hear Please leave your rating and review as well If you are looking for real-time betting and fantasy implications of the draft on Thursday night You're in luck. We'll be doing a live stream right here at number fire breaking down each pick as they happen on Fandals YouTube page. It'll be me JJ Zacharyson and Brandon Gadoula Analyzing the picks live sweating prop bets with you and answering questions You have throughout the night talking to a talking all the the wide receivers and the running backs and the fantasy Implications to stream that just go to youtube.com slash fan dual videos and tune in at 8 p.m Thursday for round one then Friday night for rounds two and three should be a whole lot of fun So make sure you tune in for that We'll post up on number fire as well where you can find the link there Let's bring in Timo risk up find him on Twitter at pff underscore Moo and break down the NFL draft And it's multiple practices for teams heading into the draft as well Covering the present Let's bring Timo riska into covering the spread Timo really appreciate you taking the time to swing by and chat for today How are you doing? Hi, yeah, I'm fine. Thanks for having me always happy to talk about football NFL and some some draft and you are coming to us live from Germany and What is the? Coronavirus experience like over there how things been for you are you doing all right so far? Yeah, yeah, I've been all right Actually, basically, I mean, I don't know anyone who've had it You know, which is which is pretty nice for me But I mean, it's obviously because of all the measurements that that we're taking So, yeah, I guess it's pretty like pretty much like in the US so Yeah, so I'm only leaving the house with my wife and my kids Yeah, I was reading about the steps Germany had taken initially to like try to combat the Spread and stuff like that. So I'm glad that things are going well for you for sure So let's dive in here Timo and talk a little bit of NFL Pro football focus actually has a mock draft simulator and what it does is it allows people to simulate the draft It includes you can make trades. You can try to jack up your score I've tried to do my best the jets that I can possibly do and hopefully better than the real-world jets But what are some of the sources that go into predicting how things will play out and simulating things within the simulator? Yeah, I mean that there are basically three things that go into the to the predictions Or they're going to the probability that a certain player selected at a certain spot So so basically first of all the basis is the the big board. So we have a big bottle pff which Mike Mike and I compiled and We also have a public big board from Quining the mocks comm with Benjamin Robinson does does a great worker. He he scrapes all these mock drafts from from different sides and Yeah, so so that's a very cool source for us So basically we have the pff board the public board and then we we can compose it like we want I mean we've put a few options into the simulator You can basically 100% pff 100% public or like 50 50 plant or some some other plans. So that's that's the basis so so basically players are ranked By a composed board and then there are some other factors that that can that has players move up the board or fall down the board and the first the first factors positional value and The the user can decide whether he he wants to put emphasis on on this or not and this is basically based on on two things or Yeah, if you if you If you leave this on the setting then there are two things in in in play So it's basically based on our pff war metric from from Eric eager So basically what I did is I just looked at the average war and the standard deviations or the variance of raw for fridge position and Using these two numbers. I just created a list of Positional value for each position and obviously quality is the first and then Running bags and defensive interior and interior offensive line and our at the bottom and And another thing that goes into positional value, which is a little bit hidden is Eric egos college to pro projection. So so we have so for each for each college prospect his his model predicts the War and the the prospect will regenerate through the first four years first team and This this also can can have a player move up a little bit or move down a little bit But we we didn't want to we didn't want to make this as a third board because it could shake it might shake up Thanks too much As opposed to what what the public what public board looks like so we basically Hide this feature in the positional value So so if positional value is set very high then and these college to pro projection going to the board a little bit more and if it's if it's If it's set off the setting then it doesn't factor into into the board at all Oh, yeah, and team I think though you were about to get into the last factor Which is the randomness associated with the draft process in general and that's something I was really interested in and I think it actually Has a lot of betting value too because I think there's a really an opportunity to play against things that we think are sure is going to happen So for example, so Joe Burrow is widely expected to be the first pick But when we look at your numbers, you know, you have I think 10 15 percent that to a tongue of I law Ends up being that first pick at the quarterback position. So tell us a little bit about the randomness that that goes into that Yeah, I mean one one reason why I put in the random So why I left I mean basically I wanted to leave me there the possibility to to change Change a little bit stuff, but just put in pressing one button. I don't I don't want to code everything Don't want to change the code or something like this just to just to sense a little bit. So so basically I Created this factor so that I can only press one button and then I've changed something and And And the reason I use this is because I mean the probabilities are currently they are not based on a model So so it's just it's just the so it just have the big board then Players can move up the board based on positional value. You guys can move up the board best on team needs so if the team is on the clock that needs a wide receiver corner back then wide receivers move up a little bit and Convict also Yeah, and then I just I just have a ranking of players and then I just put a weight on each player and based on this ranking It's just some just some exponential function. So yeah, so obviously The closer and to two players out each other the closer the probability that they are selected Yeah, so the randomness comes from this kind of exponential function that you have Yeah, basically the factor Basically the factor how how fast the exponential function decreases When we go down the board, this is basically the randomness factor and but obviously it's it's such that at the top of the draft There's there's less uncertainty. I mean like chase young is like the second play on the board and Then we have some someone like CJ Henderson who was like in the in the early teens or so 1213 Whatever and there's like I mean we are like very sure that CJ Henderson will not pick be picked in front of chase young Because then they were there only 10 spots apart, but we are like almost 100 percent and certainly maybe 99 or 99.5 Whatever and 100 percent is not something we should say but like but like at day two when something when someone is on like on It's like 40th on the board and someone else is 50th on the board Then we are not certain at all that the guy who's 40th will be picked before the guy that is 50th So there's much more uncertainty cooked in at day two or day three or even even at 2020 pic or 25th pic there's much more uncertainty than at the top of the draft So basically the the the exponential curve and becomes more Becomes more steep at the top of the draft at date day two or day three and Plus the randomness factor can also change the change the shape of the curve and they basically yeah so basically if you if you said when them was very high and There was more uncertainty, and if you said it very low then there was less uncertainty And you cannot a lot about how like COVID-19 has affected the the certainty or the ability to predict how things are gonna play out in the draft Has that played out in your simulations to have you had to increase the randomness as a way to react to delimited information and intel that we have around this draft I'm Not not really because I mean I think it's already a relatively randomized I mean I have already heard some complaints obviously like HM. I played the simulator and chase young drop to number five How is this possible? So I think there's already a more much hooked in than a lot of people would think But but on the other hand, I mean there's so much randomness in the draft I mean stuff happens all the time when who would have thought that clever and farewell goes like forth over all last year or That hecking butler or yeah drops out of the I don't know where we was picked like Yeah, 120 or whatever. So yeah, there's so so much randomness into the in the draft so I wanted to make sure to also forget in this in the simulator and I mean if someone is not not fine with it You can just change the setting and and go with less Excellent Do you feel like the the randomness of the draft is that does that give you an approach to perhaps betting on some of these draft props? Yeah, I One thing which might be particularly true this year is I mean what you don't want to do I guess when you weren't you bet on under and You don't want to have a bet where you are basically dependent on one or two GM's doing what you think they would do Because we might know less than we haven't you about what teams think about players and maybe even the teams Don't really know what they think about the players So I mean I looked at some looked at some props and what popular months like Justin Jefferson at 21.5 so I mean for me this looks like Okay, if you bet under you're basically saying that you know what How we rose from from the Eagles will do but I mean who knows what how So this is like this is like a prop where I would stay with stay away from the under because yeah It's basically you you don't hatch it with with a lot of GM's in as a contrast to that I looked at the Christian Fulton bet and I think that the public has him has him Falling to the end of the first round and his problems think 25.5 But if you look at the board, there are a lot of teams So basically I think the the consensus pretty much a cooler is the best cornerback then there's Henderson who will probably Go somewhere between 10 and 15 But then there is like I don't think there's a really a consensus on who's the next corner back Jeff Christian Fulton, Trevon Diggs and Jeff Gladney some names but there are a lot of teams between between 15 with the Denver Broncos and And 25 which is the Minnesota Vikings. I think there are a lot of teams who we need cornerbacks. So Yeah, so you have a better chance there because you're just hatching with with more GM So you don't really have to know what this one GM will do It just takes one game just one GM who thinks okay Christian Fulton is the next the next in the line of the top cornerbacks So I like this more flexibility Yeah, that makes sense now let's talk a little bit about the draft from a real-world perspective We'll get back to the betting aspect as well But the draft simulator on PFF gives you a score for each draft that you do at the end based on the trades You make and the value get from each pick and if we're talking about the real NFL How can teams maximize the value they're getting during the draft? You talk about positional value a bit But are there other things teams can do in order to maximize what they're getting from their draft class? So the first thing Actually already starts and before the draft for example, it free agency So you should never go into the draft with the plate and hole Which basically forces you to to pick a certain player or to pick a certain position and early in the draft and Because there are there are three problems and first of all you can never be sure that you will get a certain player Like this is basically what happened to the Texans last year They were probably targeting entry Dillard, but then the Eagles jumped them and they had to they have they reached for Titus Howard I guess And but they were uncomfortable obviously with their offensive line room. So they had to give up like two first round picks and Yeah for for Larry Tancil on a on a franchise tag or 50 options So that's that's not ideal obviously And Yeah, the other problem is and this is something I wrote about this offseason is and even I mean Yeah, obviously you even if you get a certain player, you don't know whether he will be good So the expectation is always that you find a starter in the first round But often you do not and the next problem is even if he's good I mean, that's that's where I wrote about and he probably won't be that good during his rookie year. So Players generally and only Generate 60% of their war of the war they generate in in later seasons In the rookie season. So yeah, so they don't produce as much as they they produce later in their careers or even in the second year 30 and so so if you draft if trust to fill to fill in immediate need for the next season You probably won't won't be happy with it. I mean you can get lucky, but Yeah, but you might not get lucky and then then you have a problem So yeah, I don't think No, that makes a ton of Sense from the team perspective, right? You know not even you know that these guys take a while to develop and they're not gonna necessarily Plug a hole team. I wanted to switch gears a little bit and talk about the quarterback position There's a lot of rumors swirling about around to a tongue of I loa and where he might go in this draft His draft position is all the way up to four and a half right now with plus one hundred 180 on the under Based on what you're seeing with your simulations new data that's coming in with grinding the mocks Is there any temptation to to make a bet here on this four and a half? I mean, I think I think at Fendriel it's already at five and a half Which is not good Providing proposals I guess because I mean if it if it's at four and a half you can you can say like, okay Let's let's pick the over and say I'm okay the dolphins don't feel comfortable trading up for him But they might rate him They might draft him if he falls to them But that they are but that's out of play now, I guess because it's at five and a half Yeah, so that that's bad pretty much what I what I talked about earlier. So you are basically Yeah, yeah, so you're Yeah, you basically have to ask yourself what the dolphins will think but I Have no idea what the dolphins would think And I mean, I would if I were the dolphins I would trust to her at five if he falls to me and I Would not yeah, I would I would trust to over over Justin Herbert Pretty easy decision for you team Oh, if you were the dolphins would it be pretty easy for you to go to over Herbert if you were in that spot? Yeah, I think it would be pretty easy for me because I mean from an accuracy accuracy standpoint He is just better than Herbert and this is a trait that usually translates from college to NFL very well and I mean, I'm not an expert in in quarterback scouting, obviously, but what what other people who I trust Told me is that also from a processing stat point and he's just the better prospect Right, so I mean and if you if you're traffic water big you hope to to get it for for like Yeah, obviously for the rookie contract, but also to to give him a second contract for having for the next 10 years and Yeah, so I'd rather bet on the injury not being not being a long-term problem And I'm using really high draft make for quarterback that I don't realize from my accuracy standpoint So team up. I really like what you said earlier about you never want to make a bet about what one particular GM is thinking But is it a little bit different here just because we have heard things about the Chargers Maybe trading up to get the number three pick and drafting to a Does that make does that change your mind? I mean does that change your mind about this prop? I Mean what what I can remember in and in Recent drafts is that if we heard late rumors about quarterbacks. They were often true I mean so so Baker so Baker may feel we heard I think we started her hearing the rumors that he would go first of all Like two days or even one day before the draft, right? And obviously it turned out correct Yeah, so now we are hearing that Tour might be falling and might actually going below just in her bed so Yeah, so I'm tempted to to believe that even if I will not Decided this way. Yeah. Yeah, so I probably stay away from the under even if it's 5.5 now. Yeah makes sense. Especially when it's so consistent the Drum beat that to a may slip as well. It's not about another quarterback here in Jordan Love He I believe open at 14 and a half at Fandall Sportsbook That's now 19 and a half and it's up to minus 200 on the over for that number So the sentiment on Jordan love initially very positive, but it swung a lot against him potentially partially because I mean The prospect but also because of the way the draft plays out with where teams who need quarterbacks are picking Do you think that slide is appropriate or are you still looking to snag the over on Jordan love even with it being all the way up to 19 and a half? Yeah, I mean, I'd probably still take the over because I'm not really buying the hype and I'm not sure the NFL teams do either Because I mean, I think in Peter King's column today. He said like he tried to Yeah, he tried to check who would Traff John love and he he didn't found team and then he said like the the most likely teams trapped him in the second round I like the hackers who yeah who trapped at the end of the second one and I think also the Steelers who have the first pick Yes, somewhere in the middle of the second round, I guess Yeah, so I am not I'm not really buying the hype and After after seeing train Haskins slipped to 15 last year teams were not really interested in him. I Can't really see How teams will be that interested in in Jordan love after after Borough Herbert and tour and I don't really see it Yeah, we want to and I think that the point you made to about Dwayne Haskins last year is pertinent because it wasn't just Dwayne Haskins But also drew lock and like there's a decent amount of overlap between drew lock and Jordan love where they have big arms They're kind of erratic decent athleticism, but like drew lock the all the way to the second round So I think that what you're saying about looking at what's happened in the past is is really pertinent with guys like Jordan love So I think that I'd side with you there as well on you know skewing towards the over with Jordan love But I think that's a good way to put it as well Yes Any other draft prop stand out to you right now Timo based on where the numbers currently said a fan dual sports book You know, I think I've already talked about the the Christian Fulton run. I love I love that a lot Another run which I would love but I think it's it's a little bit whiskey is the the Henry rocks prop It's at where is it? It's at 13 and a half right now So I'd lean I'd lean the under there actually because doing there there was a lot of I mean just yeah, so 13 is the the 49ers and The waiters are 12 the jets ID 11 there. There are a lot of teams who need wide receivers In this range and teams just laugh Love the speed I guess. I mean John Ross was picked seventh overall. Obviously he didn't pan out But and I think even before the combine Henry rocks were seen as a much better prospect than John Ross was seen in 2017 and then then running a four-point. What did he run four point two two or two four back propelled him to the seventh overall pig and Yeah, so Henry rocks was much better Considered to be much better before the combine then you want also ran a four two So I guess teams just left the speed and and he's also a good receiver So I guess he'll go 13 of or earlier and I think that Henry rugs is super interesting because I know that When pro football focused it there analytics mock draft he went super high I believe went for to the Giants and that and the war projections seem pretty bullish on Henry rugs Even though he didn't get a ton of usage in in college Is that because of all the things that speed can provide on the field? Is that what jacks up the war projection for a guy like Henry rugs? I mean, it's a combination of The obviously office combine results. I mean this this obviously goes into the model and it helps him a bit I mean that much more goes into the model, but this is definitely helps him a bit And what also helps him in like compared to compared to Jerry Julie is that he's just he's projected to play more snaps outside Compared to the slot especially compared to Jerry Julie and this this bumps him up a little bit in the in the projections Because it also it often also yields a higher average death of target, which is generally more valuable and Yeah, so basically these are yeah, these are the things Makes a lot of sense and you should be a fun player Yeah, absolutely well that is Timo risk a Timo really appreciate you swinging by and talking about the NFL draft I am looking forward to doing a couple more mocks in the simulator after work for today It's been a fun little experiment for sure really enjoying it myself. Good luck to you. Enjoy the draft Well, hopefully we can talk to you again soon Yeah, thanks. Thanks for having me. It was a lot of fun Yeah, let's see how the draft lays out Covering the future Big thank you once again to Timo risk it for swinging on by and breaking down the NFL draft Follow him on Twitter at pff underscore Moo and check out that pro football focus draft simulators go to pff.com Like I said, it's pretty fun to play around with I have not drafted Henry rugs yet in my drafts. I've done for the jets I probably will go through and do some for the Vikings to because they're kind of like a Secondary favorite team for me, but I think rugs is just he's a fascinating player because it's not often find guys with speed Who actually get some sort of usage as a receiver as well? Yeah, and this is not the first time I've heard people talking about rugs as the first receiver off the board and when you look at Fandall the Draft position of Jerry Judy CD Lam and Henry rugs. I mean it's 12 and a half 12 and a half 13 and a half Right, so it's all really tight. I think there's a lot of chance for I mean that definitely implies that You know rugs could certainly be the first not that favorite to be the first wide receiver on the board but certainly could be and Teams definitely love the speed. So I think that's I know that was really interesting insight Yeah rugs is fascinating because he's one of the players I think who has the biggest discrepancy between his real-world value and his fantasy value because I thought a lot of fantasy people and like They're down on rugs because he doesn't get a lot of usage and that's a big predictor of who gets usage in the NFL Is if you get used to college and he doesn't get that but I think last year We probably saw how important speed is in the NFL with the Chiefs winning Super Bowl with the Eagles offense They made the playoffs, but they essentially collapsed after Deshaun Jackson got hurt We saw the splits with the Texans and will Fuller So I think that rugs is real-world value is so wildly different from his fantasy value that he's a super-fascinated prospect to study but also like he said he's plus 460 to be the first wide receiver off the board and We heard a Timo reference Peter King's mock today He did not have Henry rugs going as the first wide receiver He had CD lamb going and he said that Mike Mayock loves CD lamb, but We heard Timo reference that Chloe and Farrell move last year Nobody knew what the Raiders are gonna do outside of the Josh Jacobs pig So I think that anything we hear about the Raiders being certain on one prospect We should take with a pretty big grain of salt because of how big of a wild card they were last year So maybe John Gruden, you know old-school Al Davis type pick just go Henry rugs get that speed plus 460 I don't think that's that bad and it also plays into add to another thing We talked about where maybe you want to shoot on first some long shots in a draft We kind of don't know how things are gonna play out Well, we never know how things are gonna play out right draft and so yeah I mean, I think it's it's an interesting betting opportunity to kind of bank on some uncertainty and some Unexpectedness. I think you get that's more likely the deeper in the draft you go I mean we probably know who the first pick is gonna be probably know who the second pick is gonna be But as I want to talk about like, you know It kind of drops off after that and we'll get into that in just one second But first if you think you know the NFL drafts top 10 picks and how they're gonna shake out Now's your chance to prove it with fan duals draft challenge free play It is simple just pick players based on how you think the draft is going to happen You will earn points if you pick the player in the correct slot or if the player is drafted within one slot of your prediction Finish with the most points and win your share of ten thousand dollars for more details as a fan dual com or download the fan dual Lab today eligibility restrictions apply There is another game another free play game is well on fan dual where you can pick who will be the first player to each position Which may be relevant for your discussion here Ed talking about that number three overall pick What do you see going down there and how does that pertain to betting? Yeah, I mean I see a lot of things going on there But just to reiterate like I mean, I think there's an opportunity to bet on uncertainty and you know we asked him about You know their simulator has borough only had about 85 ish percent chance of being the first pick and okay Given the rumors that mean the the guy that fills that probability and it's to a ton go by law given the rumors I'm not exactly gonna make that bet right now Chase young the second pick, but number three I think is really interesting and I had Evan Silva on my podcast And he basically said you have to throw out reason when you talk about predicting what the Lions are gonna do So I think the the kind of safe the kind of middle choice to do is to pick Jeffrey Okuta He's gonna be the court. He's the quarterback from Ohio State a lot of mock drafts Have him there and I think there's about even odds at fan dual And this is kind of the safe choice for the franchise cornerback is a is a position with not a huge supply So that would be the good thing And that's also what grinding the mocks would say is like, you know It's pretty close between him and and I forget who was maybe it was Herbert that was next that would be that third pick But but you never know so that for the Lions like the bad choice is to pick Derek Brown the defensive tackle out of Auburn and it's not bad because Derek Brown is not a good player But it's more just the positional value of picking a defensive tackle of there It would not be The best choice, but it's looking like something that might happen Evan Silva still has Derek Brown at that pick in his mock draft He talked about how one point Fandall had that choice at 29 to 1 it is 6 to 1 right now so not Likely to happen, but certainly not out of the question and who knows what's gonna happen before draft time So I think that's the bad outcome We kind of talked about the safe outcome with Okuta and then there's the great outcome that they could actually trade down I think a lot of people would like to get a quarterback with that position The Chargers have definitely been put in that position in that number of teams that want to draft a quarterback pretty high in this draft so Okuta is you know pretty much even money right now and Then to a to a is plus 400 Justin Herbert sport plus 450 I think there's a lot of value at that that third pick right now to kind of bet on chaos and Basically the lines are someone going against kind of the consensus that Okuta is gonna be that third pick Yeah, I think the Derek Brown one is interesting too because I was listening to Evan on his podcast He's established the run podcast of that in Levitan and they were talking about how when you look at the rankings of NFL insiders They tend to be higher on someone like Derek Brown Than people who are maybe less connected but are trying to judge things based on talent I think that's very interesting because that's where you can find Some right longer value because it doesn't matter what we think no one cares But we think it only matters what the NFL thinks and thus we want to look at guys who are connected like Gil Brandt Is a guy they were talking about a lot who has Eric Brown pretty high in his ranking so I think trying to spot guys like that and Maybe get them as longer shots But also I think the point about Jeff Okuta is correct because you don't want to bet that a plus 110 Given we can't expect rational decisions from the Lions. We don't know if they're gonna trade out And it's just I think that that number is too short to feel really good about it based on I think that like you said the uncertainty really beginning with that pick Yeah, absolutely, and it's just the perfect team there to see the uncertainty Exactly, of course Matt Patricia Stoen volatility as I mean we could you know, I mean, I guess I you know We could throw the Raiders in there that might be a good team to have a volatile tight pick Well, I don't know I Think those would be the top two I would think of Like the Browns get like a ridicule, but they're predictable So like I think that like I think if I were to go with wild Lions and Raiders would probably be at the top of my list there for sure Now you were talking about Derek Brown Not being the optimal choice because of positional value I want to talk about positional value too and talk about another prop here because we've seen a lot of Discussion about Deandre Swift and potentially Jonathan Taylor going the first round and a couple of teams picking toward the back end of the round Have some level of need at that position so it makes sense. We would discuss those guys in the first round But we can get plus 150 juice on there being zero running back strapped in the first round And I like this bet at that specific number and a big part of the reason here is the specific teams That have a need at running back I would list the dolphins and the cheese in that department I wouldn't list cheese personally, but people think they are the Seahawks or another team that have been rumored to be targeting a running back But all three of those teams have question marks about what they'll do the dolphins Seem to be I think an analytically run organization and they have a lot of holes to fill so running back to me Kind of a hard sell for them If we look at the the Seahawks and the Chiefs They're both prime trade down candidates. The Seahawks always it seems like want to trade down and collect picks That's kind of been their motto in the NFL draft And I also would not list personally running back at the top end of their needs because they could still use a tackle They could still use an edge rusher defensive linemen stuff like that. So running back I think is more of a later round thing for them whereas the Chiefs only have five picks in the draft and they have no cap room So buddy, they got to trade down and add more picks They've just got just five right now if they trade down they can recoup some of that that draft stock If they stick with just the five picks, I think they've got too many needs to go at the running back so it's really confusing to me to see them always tied to the guys like Deandre Swift because Damian Owens is pretty good. They could very easily just stand pat there. They just signed Deandre Washington as well So I think that when we look at these teams at the back end of the first round Well, I think that we're gonna see a lot of them trade out But also the teams that do trade with them into the first round probably aren't gonna target a running back They're probably gonna want that fifth-year option tied to maybe a guy like Jordan Love Maybe an offensive tackle or something like that the fifth-year option not as valuable at running back as it is of their position So well, I think that switch and Taylor will likely go somewhere decently early probably at the front of the second round I don't think they will get into the first round. So Getting plus 150 on that one makes it a pretty fun bet in my eyes I'm gonna go with under 0.5 running backs in the first round at plus 150. Ed, what about you? You think the NFL is rational enough to hold off on their desires? I think it's laughable that the Seahawks would be targeting a running back Obviously, this is a team that has decided that they're gonna emphasize the run and they're gonna run the ball And they certainly have over the past two years. I mean, they do still have Chris Carson. They do have a lot of assets there Pete Carroll is the one that's been driving this train about needing to run the ball and he and Jerry Krauss are ones that should be very That they got the lottery ticket obviously in Pete Carroll's case being the quarterback Russell Wilson And as for the chiefs if the chiefs don't draft a cornerback, they're dumb They need help in that secondary like why would you get a running back? Why that makes no sense at all? It also goes Against what Andy Reid has always done. He's been at the chiefs since I think like 2011 They've not picked a running back within the first two rounds any of those drafts That's almost 10 drafts now zero running backs within the first two rounds and part of this because they had Jamal Charles for a while but like They had the same running back depth chart last year entering the draft that they have now essentially and they didn't pick a running back to the Sixth round. Why would they change that now? Especially when you have just five picks so I guess what I'm doing here at is I'm putting faith in Andy Reid and We're not gonna trust the Lions, but I'm gonna trust Andy Reid as far as making decisions the NFL draft I feel better about that. Yeah, for sure. I can't I can't see Kansas City taking a running back That's like if you have plus 150 and you get to the 32nd pick you're probably pretty good Exactly until the Seahawks trade back in and take your money back there because why not man? Why not? Let's close up here with quarantine corner for this week things We are doing to occupy our time in this shelter-in-place era that we have and what are you doing to pass the time nowadays? Couple things I actually watched the Dave Chappelle when he got the Mark Twain Prize this happened last year It's really awesome. I love Dave Chappelle Equanimity is as I talked about last week the best comedy special in my mind just because it is not only hilarious but also profound and Yeah, so check that out. I watched it with my wife Neil Brennan who was the guy who he co-wrote Chappelle show with him I mean is his his bit was so good It was so good Also, another thing we've been watching was onward. It was a movie picks our movie that was out in the theaters when this pandemic hit So they released it on Disney plus a beautiful little story about two brothers. I'll watch it with my two boys Who of course immediately started fighting right But but yeah, it was a really nice story a little unexpected ending so Yeah in definitely hitting the Netflix and the Disney plus and I would I would recommend both those things that one is interesting because It's two actors who I like a lot in real life and Chris Pratt and Tom Holland and like yeah these super talented dudes But then doing voice acting yeah, and at least based on the trailers It sounded like they were pretty good at it Which I guess shouldn't surprise me but like yeah, those are two very Distinct talents, but they seem like they were doing well with it. So I thought that was very interesting I think the role of Chris Pratt as the bigger brother is just perfect Yeah, I guess I feel like that is just kind of his personality and that was great I mean Tom Holland was great, too. Yeah, but yeah, no, it was it was really good I mean they do some amazing stuff at Pixar and yeah, it's nice You know, it's just nice that they put that on Disney plus instead of like trying to get you to pay 1999 on Another service to like buy the movie. Yeah, right like I want to watch Rise of Skywalker again But I am not paying 20 bucks to watch it again. Oh, that's still at 20 bucks I think I haven't seen a Disney plus yet. Okay, so that's a lot I just want to watch it because I like the Star Wars series. I thought that movie was disappointing I will pay 299 to watch it. Yeah, but I'm not paying 1999 Yeah, I think we'll eventually probably get to onward But I still need to watch Toy Story 4 which is on Disney plus now Toy Story I think was one of the first movies I ever saw in theater or at least ever willing to saw The first one I saw was a Batman movie that I left like halfway through because I was like three and hated it But I think the first one that I wanted to see was Toy Story So I think I need to to round things out here and watch Toy Story 4 But then eventually we'll get around I guess Frozen 2 is on there, too And should probably watch that because first one was good. Yeah, I got to catch up still Yeah Yeah No toy story that first toy story is really interesting because that might have changed the course of the world in the sense that that was like Steve Jobs is like first hit after he got fired from Apple the first time Yeah, and so if he doesn't have that hit like interesting what what happens with Apple and you know Does does he ever become the Steve Jobs that? Who knows? I never thought about that. That's very interesting From my quarantine corner for this week. I want to talk about playing trivia because My fiance and I have been playing like bar trivia for a while like back when we lived in Boston I guess summer villa or Cambridge technically, but we go to Ginger exchange with rest in peace because it's now closed down, but we'd go to trivia with her roommates and They live in Minneapolis now, so we haven't gotten to play trivia trivia with them for a while but because of the quarantines we've actually been able to start playing trivia again except playing it online and there are a lot of bar trivia type companies that are now doing like twitch streams and Facebook lives of trivia and they will post those you can do them live or you could they will post them After the fact online the company. We've been doing is geeks who drink Which is I think based in Boston. That's a company. We I guess that's not the way We went to when we were in Boston, but I think they're a nationwide company But you can go to if you just search for geeks for geeks who drink they have a website They post their twitch streams up on there, and it's kind of nice You don't have the competitive aspect obviously because they can't make sure that you are not cheating but it's fun to just kind of answer some questions hang out with people and Play a little bit of trivia Shockingly Ed this has not made us better at trivia, which is upsetting But it's so pretty fun. Have you ever been a trivia type person for bars or anything like that? Yeah I mean, yeah back before I had kids definitely would head out and and do some trivia But I think it is interesting like these things that are kind of coming back into people's lives because of the pandemic We used to have a poker game in Ann Arbor four or five years and then my buddy who hosted it started a brewery and just Didn't have time to do it anymore And that's Holmes brewery, which makes awesome beer But now, you know with the pandemic we've started to do some a few games here and there You know just playing online getting getting people on zoom, which has been nice to see people so There are some opportunities to you know do some things that you otherwise wouldn't do And I think those are always interesting and hopefully good for the soul Yeah, and it's been a lot of fun honestly, so I'm kind of hoping that like it's something that sticks around after This is all wrapped up and which could be a while But yeah, it's been nice to play a little bit of trivia again Connected people who are living elsewhere, but I think that that's been it's been a fun experience for sure That is all that we have for today here on covering the spread in our final episode before the NFL draft comes up this week Well, we'll be back next week to recap it all and talk about We'll do we'll finally do a cover in the past for the first time in like a decade if you like So we've had nothing to recap but finally we'll have draft picks to talk about so we can discuss that there Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get that right when it is posted big Thank you once again to Timo riska for swinging by find him on Twitter at pff underscore Mu once again He is a data scientist for pro football focus and check out that draft simulator and what's going on with you over at the power rank and the football analytics show Yeah, head Evan Silva on the football analytics show Evan's obviously a monster in terms of NFL knowledge his mock drafts are awesome so yeah, definitely go check that out and Yeah, I think that's about it just Getting ready for the drafts. I haven't been on Twitter much recently, but I certainly will be on there Thursday night because it's gonna be fun to kind of hang out and see what everyone's up to and Hope my internet connection is not that slow. So, you know, we Be following it live. Yeah, it's we haven't had an event to live tweet together in a while So this is this will be a fun experience for sure And if you're gonna talk to anyone about the NFL draft Evan Silva is perfect because he just consumed so much information And that's exactly what you want to do this time of year So make sure you check out the football analytics show for that. I am at Jim Sonnis J. I am S a NNES as mentioned, we have that live stream coming up on Thursday night with me JJ and Brandon APM youtube.com Fan dual videos, I will be live sweating props there JJ and Brandon will be giving projections based on where players go I'll get to geek out about the offensive line We'll get to talk to her and everything else so make sure you are subscribed to the Fandall YouTube page and check that out On Thursday night big thank you to Calvin Theobald our video producer For swinger for keeping the video side of things here kept up as always. Thank you Cal and thank you to everyone for tuning in We hope you are staying safe and staying healthy out there and hopefully you enjoy the NFL draft We'll talk to you again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network