 Good afternoon and welcome My name is Raj Kumar. I'm the president and editor-in-chief of DevEx I'm delighted to be with all of you who are here in the room live in Davos And those of you who are following us from around the world for this issue brief on the state of the Humanitarian system in fact the official title is the Humanitarian system under pressure and I think maybe there hasn't been such an understatement in a long time This is a case where Humanitarians that I talked to and that we report on and and Look into around the world if you talk to them They will give you a sense that they have never felt so stretched before their institutions feel overwhelmed you may not know that from You're watching the news on the mainstream media because there are some very big crises which get a lot of attention But there are many many more that don't and we'll talk a little bit about that today You may know though that the world is in this state of growing Humanitarian crisis simply from where you live Even if you live in an advanced economy in a rich country you may find Refugees in your own country you may talk to them and hear their stories and people In historic at historic levels are fleeing. They're moving. They're moving sometimes internally because of conflict They're moving because of climate They're moving because of corruption because of violence There are many reasons but there are many people moving and today there are 360 million people in the world in need of humanitarian assistance and Over a hundred million that are displaced from their homes for some reason I'm joined by three people who are working at some of the most important institutions that are trying to address these issues to Provide assistance to people in need around the world and we're gonna hear from them what they think the picture is in 2024 going forward. So I'm joined by Philippe O'Grande who is the UN High Commissioner for Refugees You may know it as UNHCR I'm joined next to him by Kitty van der Hayden who's the deputy executive director for partnerships at UNICEF and David Miliband who is the president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee? Maybe I'll just start with you David if I can When you look at 2024 you think about the state of the humanitarian system such as it is How would you describe it now versus where we've been these past years? What's new? What's different? What's what's coming that people should be aware of? Thanks? First of all, I think we all three would Insist that while there is pressure in the humanitarian system or sector the pressure on our clients is quantumly different and what will run through my remarks is the unspeakable pressure That is afflicting 300 million plus people that you talked about just for context. We've just published our emergency watch list for 2024 85% of the people who need humanitarian aid are in just 20 countries 75% of the world's refugees are in those 20 countries So it's a massive problem, but it's also acute in particular places You had a session. I know at Weft today on Gaza just before I arrived Gaza is number two on our watch list and number one is Sudan and number three is South Sudan and 25 million people in need in humanitarian need in In Sudan, I would say there are three sources of pressure in the Humanitarian sector. There's a funding gap. There's a delivery gap and there's a political gap The funding gap is easy to talk about and actually easy to fix relatively speaking So I'm not gonna spend time. We're gonna want to know about that later. But yeah, it's good As a policy problem Funding is an easy thing is a much easier thing to fix than the second which is delivery gap How in the context of conflict is it possible to deliver humanitarian aid in a way that Gets the aid to people who need it is able to establish sustainable Basis for them to live not just under humanitarian aid not on humanitarian aid But off their own efforts and in some cases when they're in conflict how to survive impunity that is all around them and so that delivery gap has led us to work very hard in the context of the challenges of climate and conflict and poverty to Propose different models for the international system to work with international NGOs and with local NGOs We think civil society has a much bigger role to play than it's currently Afforded and happy to talk about that some more the political gap It is obvious and it's obviously the hardest to fix and takes us beyond the lanes that we're most Comfortable with but it wouldn't do justice to the topic not to recognize The West versus the rest as an increasing factor in global Politics the increasing breaking of international norms and in some cases laws about protection of civilians about aid for civilians So those political issues Are summed up by the inertia and the gridlock at UN and Security Council level just to finish and because I know you want this to be Interactive we're pleading with people in this week in Davos to remember three numbers And their numbers about solutions that we're pioneering not problems that we're describing number one. We took a An approach to treating malnutrition to Mali at the moment 80% of acutely malnourished kids in the world don't get help 27,000 kids were helped by our simplified protocol delivered by community health workers in Mali 92% success rate 20 to 30% savings on cost effectiveness Second 11 weeks the second number that I want us to remember 11 weeks is the time it took for Children engaged in our Alan Simpson early childhood development program to make a year's worth of pre-primary progress in their social and emotional and academic Progress so there's an we all know that Education is the least funded part of the humanitarian sector There are solutions even in that even in that area as well and then the third statistic is 15 15 countries in which we're running something called signpost which is a refugee for refugee information system It's currently been used by over 50 million refugees because information is the first thing that you need and it's a bespoke local Initiative with it's actually unbranded and it's a trusted source of information That's just to say that I'm sure My co-panelists here can speak about the amazing things that their organizations are doing Let's not allow ourselves to drown just in the the dysfunction Let's also think about how we can invest and seek investment in what is functional Yeah, I'm glad you you proposed some solutions. We'll get a little more into that but just in terms of this year kitty You've been in the space a long time and it seems like the trajectory year after year has been clear more conflict Climate having a bigger impact You know, so I guess if we're here next year It seems like this trajectory is clear unless maybe we can get some of the three areas that David proposed to change What is your take on what 2024 is going to look like what should people are interested in this space look out for in 2024? Look, I think if if the past predicts where we're going Then what we've seen is an increased number of Crises that are affecting children Worldwide many of these crises is are not sudden onset crisis many of them are protected 80% of them are protracted look at Syria 12 years of conflict look at Yemen nine years look at DRC Almost 30 years these crises are not always black swans They've been there for a long time and we have as a global community not been effective in Addressing them what I see if I look forward is a continuation of those type of protracted crisis also because climate change as an undercurrent to those crisis is not going away anytime soon actually We may be winning some wars some battles, but we're losing the war on climate currently Where where I see a huge problem coming up and it's been there for a long time and this is thank God We needed some disagreement in the room right Is an issue around funding because I think funding should be easy to fix the reality is that it isn't what I'm saying Is not necessarily that there isn't enough money What I'm saying is that that almost all that money is earmarked and going to a few crises in this world So as a humanitarian sector last year 2023 50% of the funding went to five crises right Afghanistan Ethiopia Syria and refugees from Syria in other places Ukraine and Ukrainian refugees elsewhere 50% How how many children do does anybody know how many children in Sudan you mentioned Sudan how many children in Sudan need humanitarian assistance And he gets 13 million Right 80% not funded Nobody talks about a place like Burkina Faso 3.2 million people need humanitarian assistance 91% not funded so we are looking at a crisis within a crisis We see increasing needs and a chronic underfunding and a funding that is very very earmarked to what hits the headlines and That leads to an inability of all of us together as a humanitarian system To deliver in an equitable way every child every civilian has a right to survive and to thrive and currently as a system We're not enabled To deliver that last point I want to make when it comes to funding what we see because there are so many Crises and that's only increasing and we need that lifesaving support But it is also leading to a much reduced portfolio within one fixed budget, which is ODA development aid Into addressing the root causes of some of these crises education health systems Basic services that people depend on for a life in dignity the more we do Humanitarian aid if that is within one fixed funding envelope The less we're able to deal with the root causes of deprivation and displacement of human misery and migration With that I think we get to Over to you that is a good segue to refugees Filippo you are people are moving people are moving there are refugees all over the world now and Your agency is responsible for serving them in many many places. So In many cases, these are people who have left home as refugees a very long time ago to Kitty's point about protracted crises In many cases, they are not getting the level of assistance that would be required that your agency would like to give them So there's a funding aspect there, too But what is the big picture when you look at 2024 and the status of refugees? I'm actually lucky that I can build on what my Panelists have already said so I'll add a few comments a bit also from my perspective The first one and I don't know I think this is also related to what David mentioned the crisis of delivery We spoke about this before in other panels. In fact One of the big issues this is nothing really new but new at the scale in which it's happening is the politicization of the responses and this has a very wide range of phenomenon of aspects of course in my area in our area It's very clear politicization of refugee movements for electoral purposes is common This actually makes delivery much more difficult because solutions that often are easy to find are made impossible by the politics Things like giving a work permit to a refugee, right? And we just had another meeting here on the same topic and this came up but also the issue of access because You know the traditional understanding always difficult, but that humanitarians Talk to everybody and must have access everywhere is now often Put in discussion. No, you know, you cannot talk to these people because they're bad and you know donors drive Some donors drive that discussion So this is an important aspects of the crisis in the humanitarian domain the other aspect is resources and I agree with what has been said and the key question here is, you know I often hear this comment have human humanitarian assistance has grown over the decades Has ballooned in fact because there were many needs Has it peaked? I think it's a bit of an absurd question because if you talk about Just the UN but the UN appeals, you know are a big chunk. What 30 40 billion a year This is this is small change in the world today And how can you say that it has peaked when it is important to save so many lives? But let's assume it has peaked and let's assume also that one of the reason why it has peaked as is often said in my Opinion in a manner that distracts from the real discussion Which is the responsibility of not having it peaked but often it's a you know The humanitarian model is so broken that we cannot put more money into it. I think this is a false argument Not least because actually the humanitarian model is evolving. I Every time I come to Davos every year. I always hear this mantra We need to have a new humanity. We've all evolved enormously in terms of Efficiency in terms of partnering with to making this more sustainable and and we just you know He just mentioned that So I think we need to recognize that and scale it up these new models where we work with development Organizations where we look at sustainability at sustainable care as I call it and and this brings me to my last point which is the importance in a world that is so fraught with crisis of Emphasizing not only humanitarian responses, but searching for solutions because we also know that the more you delay solutions from Climate change to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Areas in which the world has been brilliant at you know Pretending there you know or putting it aside for a variety of reasons then it comes back with the vengeance in different ways, right? So that's is one track of discussion the other track for us final final final point I want to make is what do we do in the absence of solutions be they political solutions or Developmental solutions or both like in the case of climate and I think that there is where we need to become even better are at finding intermediate approaches where again Support to those that pay the price of this crisis is Sustainable and does not depend entirely on humanitarian assistance. That's a difficult one But I think that that's one in terms of delivery where we need to really work we are working on that but we need to really get more support and More space in order for because I predict that that Necessity to find in intermediate not even solution but intermediate ways to support people in distress Without a a solution that would allow them to go back to normality that situation is becoming the new normal almost everywhere Well humanitarian assistance may not have peaked but perhaps official development assistance has perhaps ODA Which is the larger basket from which humanitarian aid comes has we don't know But if you look at this year and 60% of the world has elections And many donor countries are moving more and more rightward and candidates are are winning who are opposed to official development assistance Perhaps that basket a larger percentage ends up going to the humanitarian community given the crises and the needs But the overall basket may itself be be shrinking or plateaued But I want to come back to a key point you made Philippa and bring David into the discussion on this And by the way in a moment, I'm going to ask for questions from the audience if you have them On this question of has the humanitarian system evolved is it getting better has the model changed Philippa says yes Obviously, there are things like cash transfers the IRC has been a big a big proponent of you do quite a lot of that kind of work And it's it's expanded in many agencies now What is the fair assessment from your standpoint David given that you're you're not new to the space even here a while But you are a relative newcomer and that you had an important political job before you took this one You're such a charmer and you almost said I was still young so Look, I think it's a very low bar to say is it getting better because it could be crawling forward The point is is there still a long way to go to make it much much much much better. Yes So I would defend what's done, but I would argue there's a long way to go to make it Did you put a grade on the humanitarian? No, but the I wasn't born yesterday. So I spent a lot of years dodging questions like that the but I think it's important to to be clear There are Interventions that we know work very well, but are seriously underfunded. I mean early childhood development is a Example of that malnutrition is another example of that. So That's really inexcusable Secondly, we also know that the poorest places get the least investment and one example of that is in the climate adaptation Space this is going to be a major new area of funding. We know the Secretary General has a decision rule That 50% of all climates for Secretary General of the UN 50% of all climate funding should go to France It should go to adaptation We say that it's essential that a proportionate amount of that funding goes to fragile and conflict states Which at the moment get the least and within those fragile and conflict states a fixed percentage at least goes through The civil society sector because we know that institutions like the World Bank historically have only worked through the Official sovereign sector. You can't do that in the fragile and conflict states. So that's an example of how delivery has to Move forward. Thirdly, you'd have to say that we're going backwards on civilian protection and on Human access to humanitarian aid and that those two areas are legal rights to be protected from war 90% of the casualties of war today are civilians and the access quote-unquote access is sort of strangulation rather than access the the the the limitations on Humanitarian aid delivery are growing not receding So if you were to measure by outcomes it sounds like at least in certain areas We are doing worse than we were before as a humanitarian. There are more people in humanitarian need I mean Filippo can tell you that the number of refugees and displaced people has doubled some of them like in from Ukrainian refugees in Europe are getting high standards of treatment But very large swathes of them are getting very low standards of treatment Let's see if we have a question or two from the audience. I See Sarah there. I'd like to go to her the woman in red and then we'll take one of the questions in the front row We'll take we'll take three if we can keep them really brief and snappy with ideally a question mark at the end And please share your name and organization if you would thanks. I just I'm sorry, Pateriano from ODI short and snappy Kitty talked about Sudan what we're seeing in Sudan is an enormous amount of Leadership and energy by Sudanese citizens themselves in a lot of areas where there is no access It is the Sudanese who are responding to the crisis Other loosely, you know organizing forms of mutual aid or through the emergency rooms How can we sustain these forms of very impactful very? Appropriate adequate, you know response to make sure that first they get more money second They're more involved in the decision-making around the response You can pass it right behind you. We'll take your question and then come back to the front row. Thank you I'm a global shaper from Kabul of Afghanistan Well, it one side of the coin is you guys talking about lack of funding when the other challenge We that has been persistently that has persistently existed in Afghanistan and when it comes to a distribution is that it not going to the right people because the regime hands over and you know a Pre-picked list to the UN organizations to distribute the aid so whereas it starts from a really good place With good wealth for the aid, but it doesn't reach the right people a recent example is our province where The aid was completely stopped because the regime was interfering What are the mechanisms? How can you make sure that the aid makes it to the right people? Thank you for that question. Just right here in the front row. We can pass the mic Hi, hello, my name is Antonina and I really related to what key to say because I come from a country Where it's in crisis that no one talks about anymore However, we're the second worst migration crisis in the world. So I think you can guess is correctly So I come from Venezuela and my question is very simple, but I have to ask why are with us the second Least funded humanitarian crisis in the world Well kidding me. We'll start with you on this question from Antonella about Venezuela And again, we have just a few minutes. So we'll try to keep our responses sharp if we can Venezuelan refugees are now all over the world Why is it not a place that gets a lot of funding? Look if I would know the answer We would have the funding we needed to address the crisis in Venezuela and in surrounding countries, right? I mean, this is not a UN problem We are being funded by donors and unfortunately as I said those donors create highly earmarked funding pathways for us And that is creating I mean you mentioned it. It's an equity crisis in the way We fund the humanitarian crisis We are the custodians on the convention every child is the same whether you're in Venezuela or in Gaza or in Ukraine or in Yemen doesn't matter every child has the same rights And we're unable to be there for every child everywhere all the time Because the way we're funded as a system means we therefore some children in some countries for some part of the time That is the equity crisis. We're dealing with that is something that our donors need to help us So if we can't do this alone, we will be advocating for every forgotten crisis every forgotten child is a crisis for us Filippo embedded in Sarah's question is a critique. I think you talked a bit about the delivery Getting better in some ways, but she's talking really about this idea of localization All right, and such a small percentage of humanitarian assistance gets to local organizations She's using the case of Sudan to say look here's a place where people are rising up on their own to do this work Why can't we as an international system fund them? What is the what is the barrier? Is it you know bureaucratic intransigence? Is it a is it a a different view of of you know How trustworthy local organizations are what's holding us back from truly? Increasing the amount of humanitarian aid that goes to local organizations, but before I answer Sarah's question Just one point on Venezuela It's a bit more of a mixed picture in a place like Colombia and This is what I I was referring earlier that we need to look at how these things are evolving Colombia is the country hosting the largest number of Venezuelans, right? Two and a half million probably more close to three million now. So it's a large number We started off a few years back with a very humanitarian approach money dried up very quickly You're absolutely right on that because this was not the priority etc. But in Colombia in particular to an extent in Ecuador and other places as well is are probably some of the countries where involving international financial institutions the Inter-American Development Bank even the World Bank in support of good state policies that include Refugees has been one of the most successful and we're talking about billions of dollars. So you see I think that we need to look at it There is if there is pressure on us to Embrace new models and we do embrace new models because we are largely the humanitarian They're largely responsible for having brought in Development actors then needs to this needs to be recognized and supported. Otherwise, we continue It's a spiral. It's a negative spiral that, you know, we never get out of the Roya Minitarian dries up your marking. These are all real issues, but there are ways out that I think we need to Grow and on Sarah's, you know, I think this is an important point We are struggling with that as an organization struggling. We are Grappling with it as an organization at the last refugee forum in December last month two months. Yeah, last month We had 300 refugees participating So that was Still symbolic if you wish over 4,000 participants But a powerful symbol that they are part of the discussion This is in a way indirectly responding what you said about Sudan the question is you know I did one of the final sessions with four of them It was fascinating because I had to push back on certain issues Representation for example, how do you determine who represents what how might put the point I Sent back to them when they said we want to be more part of this meeting We want to part to be part of your governance structure The the message back is this is all well and good, but because it's so difficult to structure it globally It's at the local level that this needs to happen and this is what you're saying So I am now pushing my representatives in the field to embrace refugee participation In decision-making it's still difficult because you know Representation is political at every level who who does what to whom do you entrust resources to do things? It's not it's not a joke. It's quite complicated, but it's easier to do it at the local level where you have a better You know picture of the situation and it's actually as much more effective to do it to do it at the local level It's a very very big discussion, but one that I think deserves attention and deserves Experiments in order to move because we have seen it during COVID and we see it in this impossible situation where access is almost Zero or not next to zero that either you work with the local community or you don't work It's potentially one of the most important ways to do more with less when you have To find the right ways to do it because otherwise donors would say oh wait wait a minute Where is this money going because there is also that element that we need to factory David We only have about a minute or so left, but we had this colleague in Afghanistan So two things to end up 30 seconds on the funding picture in broad terms Half of the world's extreme poor live in fragile and conflict states but a quarter of the money That is earmarked for development and humanitarian aid together goes so you've got a mismatch there There's big room for a switch spend not least because we now know 30 40 years after the collapse of the Berlin wall There is a route to development in stable states that is about governance and markets not about international aid To the colleague in Afghanistan The we have five thousand people working for the International Rescue Committee in Afghanistan at local level In 12 different provinces including two thousand two hundred women despite the quote-unquote ban that was Imposed and your point about thinking local is actually borne out by every study Of where aid has gone in Afghanistan. Filippa has an extraordinarily distinguished record actually in Afghanistan There's more about it than I do but for 20 or 30 years But all of the studies show the big money that goes in for prestige infrastructure projects from the top doesn't get to the people who need it Seeding change at local level does and that's a very important message We think we're part of the local system because of our 5,000 staff 4,996 are Afghans and they make decisions about what to do and which grants to apply for so I think your point Isn't important. Yeah, I think so too And I think part of what you are calling Afghanistan is getting at is it's also about having to work with certain governments You talked about the the governments and fragile states that are very challenging to work with the reality this year is There are many governments many countries that are tough tough partners for the humanitarian community But there is no choice because as kitty says, that's where the need is So I hope we've given you a lay of the land for what is a very challenging moment for the humanitarian community And as David said especially for the people themselves who are in need all over the world So thank you very much for being a part of the issue