 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a lot of really fun football players left across the divisional round in the NFL And that means a lot of fun player prop potential as well despite there being just four games We're gonna break down player props across the divisional round for today by talking to JJ Zachary's and picking his brain Where he sees value at Fandall sportsbook then later on we're wrap up EPL match week 21 by talking to Austin Cass This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here to kick things off as mentioned by JJ Zachary So check him out on Twitter at late round QB fun is work at late round comm and the late round fantasy football podcast JJ divisional round coming up this weekend. How you doing today? I'm good. I'm good One in three last week though on this show in particular It was one of those weeks though where I feel like sort of the Situations to monitor stuff that we talked about kind of hit pretty well and then the bets themselves I really wish that I went with in Joku with his yardage in receptions props as opposed to just going anytime touched on with him because The matchup was there and he crushed it But yeah, I'm ready. I'm ready to rebound this week. I'm thinking back on it I think it was the in Joku one But there was another one where you had like a good read on the usage of a player but the prop didn't hit Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I don't remember the the props up But we talked up Aaron Jones a lot and he yeah, he did so yeah and Khalil Shakira as well had the touchdown the like reception numbers weren't there for Shakira, but like I mean he's like, you know You score a touchdown like that. You got to get your flowers as well but like finjoka goes for 88 yards or whatever and Harrison Bryant is the guy who scores a touchdown like the wrong Miami tight end scored Brevin Jordan had a a touchdown as well or former the you tight end So, you know, it's just the way things break for sure But hey with the way things have gone overall this year That means we're doing for some positive regression this weekend We'll dive in and outline where JJ sees value across this week here at just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread Wherever you get your podcasts our full divisional round preview going game by game is up Featuring dr. Ed Fink find that right here on the covering the spread podcast feed also over on fan dual TV plus and the fan dual YouTube page Make sure to subscribe to get these as they go live each and every week day Do you like what you hear leave us a five start writing on Apple Podcasts or Spotify or a thumbs up over on the fan dual YouTube page Now JJ not every team was in action this past week in the wild card round So we can't dig into the data for every team and try to see okay What were the changes we saw? During that round but other teams that were in action were there any big shifts you notice? Do you think are relevant for this week when it comes to trying to predict props? Yeah, I think there's two two sort of situations in the way they ran their offenses So I'm gonna go back to Buffalo where we talked about no Gabe Davis and how that would affect sort of their personnel Maybe they'd run a little bit more 12 personnel with with Dawson Knox now healthy They didn't really do that. They ran to a 12 personnel at just a 7.6 percent rate against Pittsburgh Across the season that number was 17.6 percent. So pretty they actually ran fewer 12 personnel packages against Pittsburgh little Shakir ran as the starter. He had the second most routes for Buffalo Now we have Gabe Davis again. He missed practice once again yesterday doesn't seem good for Gabe Davis So I would expect sort of a similar Look for this Buffalo offense and that means that Khalil Shakir Once again is gonna is gonna probably play as the number two wide receiver I think the more interesting piece though Jim and this goes back to another 12 personnel tidbit But Green Bay last week ran the most 12 personnel on the week at 48 percent Now the Packers were third in the NFL this year and 12 personnel rate So they ran a lot of two two tight end sets But that was still 15 percentage points higher where they ran at 48 percent and what their season long average was now I think a lot of that or some of that at least had to do with sort of containing Micah Parsons Dallas plays a lot of man defense and that's one line backers were like 200 pounds So like you might as well get some big bodies out there to shove them around a bit Yeah, right, right like it was a very clear and obvious smart offensive plan by a better coach team Matt LaFleur versus Dan Quinn who didn't adjust during that game and that that's that I think is why They did what they did But I do think that there's one thing to also factor in here is that we had both of the rookie tight ends healthy in this game Luke Musgrave was back Tucker Kraft obviously second half of the season was used a lot more and really you know in that game He was used more as a receiver They both had three targets in that game But he was Tucker Kraft was the one who ran far more routes. He had 16 routes to Luke Musgrave six But I do think that that could play a role as well But what that means take a step back is that we know that Green Bay is sort of rotates their wide receivers similar to what we see in like Kansas City where you know, these guys aren't running 90% plus of the team's routes very frequently Romeo Dobbs was kind of the the go-to number one last week But Jaden Reed didn't play that much healing ran around on 52% of Green Bay's drop-backs Don Tavian wicks actually ran more two more routes than Jaden Reed did Christian Watson ran eight routes out of 21 drop-backs I mean, it just wasn't a very clean clear-cut situation for these wide receivers And I think that we might see that again this week Against San Francisco if they go with a similar look I don't think they're gonna run as much 12 personnel to be to be clear there because I think San Francisco is smarter Than the way the Dallas plays they don't run as much man as Dallas does But they do run a lot of 12 personnel this Green Bay offense and I would just look at this and say There's gonna be a lot of variance and variability with the Green Bay wide receiver props this week I'm just not touching that. That's really what it comes down to. I'm not I could see Jaden Reed go off I just watch and catch a big pass, but I just don't want to touch that situation And I think that makes total sense, you know We always have the option is better is to just not bet it And I think that's a good a good call out here is potentially just avoid the headache that is the Green Bay pass catchers It's a headache because they're all pretty good honestly Yeah, like I've never been high on dogs, but he made me look very stupid last week So It's a good thing for them. It's a bad thing for us. So I think avoiding it entirely is smart I want to go back to the bills Can I get one Trent Scherfield target like I know I had I had over 12 and a half receiving yards And I'm watching the next gen stats route numbers during the game. Okay, cool, you know nothing yet, but he's out there a lot He'd be running out wide stuff like that. He should eventually get one target Maybe that gets me my over nope not a single target the entire game for our guy Trent Scherfield So I would like just one can I have one one target for Trent Scherfield across the entire game now? Those are the ones that we saw in action last week Let's open things up JJ and talk about other situations You have your eye on entering the division around any other spots where you're keeping an eye on Props, even if they're not posted as of yet a Fandall sportsbook. Yeah, I don't think that we can or I don't think we should Downplay this is gonna sound crazy Jim. I don't think we should downplay Dalvin Cook in this game He got elevated from the end to the 53 man roster they cut Melvin Gordon My fear with cook isn't so much how he's gonna dig into like Gus Edwards role I think Gus Edwards has a pretty Solidified role being more of the goal-line guy early down guy not much of a receiving threat But I do worry a little bit about Justice Hill and the way that he's used his receiver in that offense So if this game script for whatever reason, I mean, I think we all expect Baltimore to have a positive game script in this game But if for whatever reason, you know, we don't know for sure it goes south I think Dalvin Cook might see more usage than people are giving him credit for and then if we see an Insanely positive game script. They might want to get him some reps too. So just keep an eye on Dalvin Cook's usage That's really what this comes down to because he's now the number three guy, you know within that offense There's also his brother James Cook who's playing this weekend against Kansas City He saw a 69% running back rush share and a 13% target share this past week Over the last four weeks and this is again, this goes back to what we talked about last week Jim where where we see when teams backs are up against the wall They sometimes just lean on their best players and their best running backs because they're not saving them for anything James Cook over the last four weeks, which is our all must win games basically for Buffalo He's really seen an uptick in running back running back usage He's seen an 80% 73% 62% now 69% running back rush share So all those numbers are above 62% That was closer to 55% in four games prior And some of that there's some overlap with like Joe Brady taking over and all that kind of stuff But I do think it's noteworthy that they did use James Cook a decent amount in that game or at least it continued The usage the uptick in usage from from what we saw down the stretch And then I think an obvious one to go to here where the flu situation is Mark Andrews We don't know at the time of this recording if he's gonna be back or not I would assume that if he is back He's not gonna play a full complement of snaps and this is a really really good matchup for tight ends in particular I mean, that's why I attacked David and Joku last week So if Mark Andrews is out, I might try to immediately go to a book and get something favorable for I say A likely because he said really good usage over the last month in that offense And I would expect him to be able to exploit that matchup too for sure and I I think that with Andrews It's it's kind of what you said where even if he does play I don't think it could be a hundred percent now You got a full practice in on Wednesday, which is obviously a positive sign But based on the initial timeline of an injury it doesn't seem like he's gonna be you know, a hundred percent with James cook Snap rates for him. I've been awesome ever since that Dallas game where he shredded. He's at Yeah, 73% snap rate the week after that fifty four percent 61% 62% all way above where he was before that huge game So they've reacted to what he did there and they've definitely lean on quite a bit So I do think that the rushing plus receiving props of James cook and as a Pacheco in that game very very interesting Let's dig into some yardage bets where you've seen value across this week Fandal sportsbook JJ. You're gonna be shocked that I like Patrick Mahomes over and is rushing 27 and a half it opened up even lower and a lot of spots definitely shop this number But you know, I talked about Mahomes last week last week being more of a rusher in the playoffs He didn't score last week where I think you can just constantly just throw that dart as in any time touched on bet as in the side I think it's like plus 600 right now But he did hit 41 rushing yards last week on just two attempts The chiefs might be forcing the more of a pass heavy script in this game That's good for Mahomes because he's not getting designed runs It's all scrambles for Mahomes and the bills do have some injuries sort of in the middle of their defense Where they might be able to exploit that a little bit with Mahomes legs So I like the over from Mahomes here. I think you could probably bet it up to like 29 and a half And and still feel okay about it another one that I like is Rashad whites under he's at 54 and a half rushing yards right now It's fifth or that's on draft Kings 53 and a half over on Fandals So you could shop this a little bit too if you want that extra yard But Detroit has allowed just four running backs this year to get to this mark, which is pretty crazy They have a very very good rush defense. One of them also one of those games was against the The Vikings in week 18 when Detroit technically wasn't really playing for that much I know that they still played their starters, but just for what it's worth The Lions are favorites in this game Tampa Bay could end up being fairly pass-heavy as a result White has actually hit this under in nine of 17 games this year I know he's been better and the offensive line for Tampa Bay has been better during the second half of the season But he still has been under this mark in over half of his games And this is against one of the best rush defense in football. I wouldn't bet Rashad of white totals just because he's obviously their primary pass catcher I think chase Edmonds a little bit banged up right now too, which could factor into that a little bit So I do think that that you should stay away from that But I do like his under rushing prop at 54 and a half. Yeah chase Edmonds didn't practice on either Wednesday or Thursday It's a toe injury and like with Chris Godwin being out on Wednesday He'd been out in previous weeks to do is me, you know, they would rest him chase Edmonds was a new injury I believe with that toe injury and he'd been eating into Rashad whites workload a bit So I think keeping tabs on that as wise could do so practice today on Friday to try to see if you can get back out there But I think the overall matchup the efficiency or lack of efficiency I should say for a shot white bull point towards an under you were talking about the Holmes with his props and Both of these I think are pretty good discounts that fangirl sportsbook right now compared to other books 26 and a half the rushing yardage number as you alluded to his touchdown prop is six to one At least it was last time I checked and if you're looking elsewhere, you're not gonna get better better than plus 450 So if you want to take my home's props, which you should so I greet the thesis here of my homes And buying that rushing production. He has no rushing touchdown this entire year Screams regression baby with the amount. He's rushing especially in the playoffs So yeah, I am fully on board with my homes and fully on board with the overall process and again The best price you'll get on both those is a fan dual sports book speaking of some touchdown props there at my homes He's six to one any other value props for you as far as touchdowns go this week. Yeah, I don't really love the touchdown markets this week I'm not gonna lie So I've just thrown darts that that's sort of my approach whenever I'm not feeling great about, you know Some of the obvious, you know more go-to guys The first one's Dalton Kincaid, I know that he scored last week, but he's at plus 260 right now or at least last time I checked That's that's pretty strong number That's pretty strong number considering Kansas City has a lot of the fourth highest adjusted target chair to tight ends this year Kincaid last week, you know, he doesn't see the same usage with Dawson Knox active But he ran nine more routes than Knox last week and that's on very few attempts They didn't go like crazy heavy pass in that game against Pittsburgh He scored a touchdown last week and that's why I'm kind of surprised this number's not a little bit higher But did score a touchdown last week, but he was second on the team and target chair as well So I think they're still using Dalton Kincaid, you know in a relatively decent manner for for a tight end as a receiver So I like that number again I'm just gonna shout this out not a lot of detail to it But Houston's been really bad against tight ends I think Isaiah likely would be very interesting especially if Mark Andrews doesn't go You could obviously risk it if you wanted to and just say oh, I don't think Mark Andrews is gonna play I think he was at like plus 200 like two to one right now And then the last one I'm just gonna go with another tight end This is really long, but a Tucker craft is that plus 500 the reason why I think it's so intriguing is what I talked about earlier Is that yes him and Luke Musgrave tied and targets this past week and Luke Musgrave was the one who found the end zone But that's exactly why I think both of those guys have very similar touchdown odds right now Is because the books are seeing this and they're saying oh look, you know Luke Musgrave found the end zone and he saw just as many targets as Tucker craft But Tucker craft ran almost three times as many routes as Luke Musgrave did and so, you know I don't the San Francisco as a matchup is not very great for tight ends But this is a these are pretty pretty decent odds for a guy who's Barely heavily involved as a receiver in this offense if they're gonna run a lot of 12 personnel again Then Tucker craft is gonna be on the field. So it's a long shot matchups not great But the odds are there I think for him to bet this and with Tucker craft too I mean with the Musgrave thing he had a wide open broken coverage touchdown So that's why I think you're seeing identical numbers here despite the fact that craft did run a lot more routes and the fact that Although Musgrave's route rate did go up from where it was in week 18 It didn't skyrocket and that to me says we shouldn't expect him to suddenly Rebecome the tight end one as he gets further removed in the kidney injury So I think that that does make a lot of sense to still be in on craft despite the fact one week further removed for Musgrave post kidney procedure. That's what we got for JJ for today JJ appreciate the time as always check out his work on Twitter at late round QB Find his work at late round comm and the late round fantasy football podcast JJ delight talking to you as always Good luck to you this week. We'll talk to you once again next Friday. Thanks Jim Alrighty again find JJ on Twitter at late round QB to dig into all of that as well We're gonna bring an Austin cast here in a second to break down the thoughts on the second FEPL match week 21 But first when it comes to the NFL playoffs, you've got to win one game at a time When you bet the playoffs on a fan duel one game can mean a lot of wins Fan duel America's number one sportsbook has all your favorite bets like the money line and spread and there's all sorts of Propets like the quarterback passing yards who will score the first touchdown plus every day There's an NFL playoff game Fan duel is giving all customers a no-sweat same game parlay That means when you combine all your bets for a chance at a bigger payday You'll get bonus bets back if your SGP does not win Make every moment more with fan duel and official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus in present in select states Minimum three leg parlay required refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook dot fandal dot com Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler Was a fandal dot com slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 188 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800 9 with an Indiana 105 22 4700 in Kansas in Wyoming or visit ksgambling health commie, Kansas 1-8777 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland and go to 1-800 gambler net in West Virginia Let's bring on now Austin Cass He is a senior editor for us here at Fandal research confine Austin on Twitter at Austin Cassin Austin I am surprised you decided to show up today because you're tempting fate. I gotta say We had the first half BPL match week 21 last week and you went 3-0. So why would you come back? Knowing that the regression monster is lurking and waiting to just chop you off at the ankles Yeah, I am willing to roll the dice Yeah, I think you're my good luck charm my my bets when I come on here do a lot better than when I don't come on here The problem is I didn't have time to bet yours last week though the recommendations You gave and so like I went back on Monday to kind of you know get the the lay of the results And I was like, oh, I've made a grave error So because I'm going to actively make time to bet them this week. They're doomed to fail So I'm sorry in advance. This is actually my fault. It's not the universe's fault not regression. It's it's me So sorry about that and apologies in advance, but I'm still gonna ask you about your thoughts on this week So let's dig in to the second half EPL match week 21 five matches Spread from Saturday through Monday here across the EPL. What's traditional market bets stand out to you as being values there Austin? So my first one I'm gonna go with is in the Brentford Nottingham Forest matchup I really really like Brentford's money line at minus 115 When you look at the Premier League table Brentford and Forrest are actually right next to each other Forrest are one spot ahead of Brentford, but the underlying numbers point to Brentford being a much better team Brentford's expect the goal differential according to FB refs XG model is plus seven point three It's actually the sixth best in the league Forrest. They're negative or sorry They're actually differentials negative six point nine the six worst clip the home road splits really go Brentford's way to Forrest I've lost Six of their last 10 away matches and Brentford own the ninth best home expect a goal differential On top of all of that Brentford are getting back their star striker Yvonne Tony who's their best player He's a huge difference maker for the beast He paced the side and goals last year with 20 no other Brentford player had more than nine His return should be a huge boost So all in all Brentford are the better team. They're at home and they're welcoming back their best player and With their current standing in the table there in 16th They need results to stay out of getting into a relegation fight So I'm really happy to take that up minus 115 and despite the fact where they are on the table Sounds like the underlying numbers and then pretty good So Brentford minus 115 taking on Nottingham Forrest They're pretty similar in the table as you mentioned how much his home field worth in soccer I know that that's like a you know Tough question to answer on the spot, but I know what it is in the NFL and the NFL. It's typically two points I've got a 1.8 personally Does it vary a lot from one pitch to another how much home field is worth and kind of what's the the lay of the land there overall? Yeah, so it definitely varies some Just for various reasons some teams are better at home than others I think it can vary year to year like teams can just get on a good run of form where the crowd really gets behind them We saw during coven when fans were we're not on in the stadiums that home field advantage kind of disappeared, which was really interesting Obviously we're working with really small samples there, but yeah Brentford have been a team even throughout their rise through the lower leagues to get to the Premier League that's been excellent at home and I'm not really sure why this number is that just minus 115 to be honest, which makes me feel like I'm missing something, but I Think some of it is just the volatility around this being Tony's first match of the season and How much whole play and things like that? But Thomas Frank Brentford's manager came out and said that Tony was gonna start and be the captain So it seems like he's gonna be ready to go and he's not coming back from injuries actually a suspension for betting oddly enough So he was able to practice and everything and hopefully you know his training's up to the level where he should be Match fit. So yeah doesn't really answer your question and I think It's difficult question to answer and really quantified, but yeah For Brentford, I would say they have been one of the better home teams in the league the last two seasons Yeah, and the fact that Tony sounds like he'll be a full go. I definitely is encouraging with this number So Austin likes Brentford minus 115 as they take on Nottingham Forest any other traditional market bets that stand out to you this week, Austin Yeah, so I'm really gonna tempt this hot streak and take Sheffield United money line. It's plus 240 They're the worst team in the league See, I'm really on a heater if this one hits So they're home Sunday morning against West Ham United In truth, this is mostly a bet against West Ham United. They're been massively overperforming their XG numbers There's six in the table on points about 16th and expected goal differential away from home They've conceded the six most most goals and that Shoddy defense should be a welcome site for Sheffield United side that struggles to create chances It's hard to find basically anything positive to say about Sheffield United so far this year. They've just been terrible But lately they've been a little bit better at home on expected goals They lost just 1.7 to 1.0 at home deliver pool hang the bat Yeah, exactly. And then they're they're two home matches after that one They allowed just a total of 1.2 XG combined a lutein town in Brentford So roughly halfway through the season. They're dead last they have just nine points through 20 matches and Sheffield United are really at risk of kind of being cut adrift at the bottom of the table But home matches against lesser sides or matches They really need to win if they're going to get out of the bottom three And this is one of those matches even if West Ham are currently are six place so I think the blades have a better chance than the 24 or 29.4 percent implied odds of this 240 money line so I'm willing to back them to take all three points and I also get a little bit of comfort in knowing that if it's tied Late in the match, I think Sheffield United will be selling out to try to get all three points because one point doesn't do a ton for them Right, so plus 240 the money line for Sheffield United taking on West Ham. That is on Sunday How willing are you to react to shifts and expected goal numbers and small samples because for me as as like when I'm betting baseball Or when I'm betting a primarily baseball I'm very willing to be reactive to shifts and small samples if it's data that I buy into and XG Data is pretty good. Sounds like you are pretty firm believer in it So are you willing to be hyper reactive to small sample shifts? Like we've seen the Sheffield United Given that that number stabilizes a lot more quickly than the baseline results Yeah, usually I'd want to have Something that could hang my hat on a little bit whether it's like a new signing that came in For Sheffield United. It's they fired their manager and have They hired Chris Wilder who actually was their manager a couple years ago a lot of teams get that boost Sometimes they call it like a dead cat bounce if you're a really bad team So that may be what's happening with them because they are a very bad team. I Also think that even though again, they're a very bad team It's hard to be that bad sure that long so they probably were due for a little bit of positive regression, but couple that in with Bringing back a manager who's had success with them in the past Playing at home against a team that's not that good. I think they'll they'll see this as a chance to get three points and Really for their sake they need to do everything they can to get those three points And a similar effect does exist in the NFL to like a rally around the flag effect after a firing We had Drew Dinsick on Whalecapper a couple years ago when the Raiders fired John Gruden He said like you can see that and like it's in the data that you can see things like that So I don't think it's a huge surprise to see Potential slight uptick, you know, we're not going to speak too positive about Sheffield in that But potentially slightly positive uptick for them So money line there a first year United plus 240 keep in mind the implied odds there as Austin mentioned 29.4% what about player props what you see in there across the five matches this week? so In the arsenal match against a crystal palace on Saturday morning I'm gonna go back to the goal or assist market. I love this market. I It's just a really unique market that is no other books offer So it just gives you a lot of outs a week ago We took Chelsea's Cole Palmer in this market and a big reason that I was into Palmer is that between his role on corners and his Gig as their first-choice penalty taker. He had a lot of pass to cashing. Saka is exactly the same situation He's their first-choice penalty taker handles a lot of corners Arsenal are minus 245 to go over one and a half goals So us makers are expecting them to create chances to score goals I think Saka has a really good chance to get in on the fun and minus 125 is a pretty fair price I would say he checks just about all the boxes. We could hope for now as you mentioned in other Podcasts you talk about you want to wait to the line of this out to ensure that player is in is that a concern with Saka or is he pretty Guaranteed to be in the well not there's no such thing as a guarantee But is he pretty like likely enough to be in lineup or you're okay locking this bed in now? Yeah, I would be okay locking in and now if you don't want to get up at 6 30 tomorrow. I don't thank you Yes, so He he's I think their best player Okay, definitely one of their best players and typically starts and they've had a nice little break here Of not having too many matches So I would assume that he'll be in the lineup and I feel pretty good about placing that bet today Okay, so that is Saka minus 125 to score or assist in the Arsenal versus Crystal Palace game Sheffield United Moneyline at plus 240 in the Brentford Moneyline at minus 115. You really are tempting faith this week I like that, you know, go big or go home. That is for sure That is Austin cast make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin cast find his work at Fandua research Where he is a senior editor Austin appreciate the time as always good luck to you this weekend It will talk to you once again next week sounds good. Thank you, Jim Alrighty, thank you to Austin and thank you to JJ as well our previous guests We wrap up things for today find JJ on Twitter at late round QB Find him at late round calm and the late-round fantasy football podcast Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are still cooking even in as we get closer to the non NFL season We doing our first look at the conference championship probably Monday afternoon next week So make sure you subscribe there as all dig into those two matchups and outline Where my number C value at Fanduels sportsbook for there I am on Twitter at Jim Sonos You can find me on threads at Jim dots on us and you can follow Fanduels research on Twitter at Fanduels research I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Enjoy all the football this weekend We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the Fanduels podcast network