 Okay, we're back. We're live the five o'clock show. I'm Jay Fidel. This is C. Tech tech talks with our scientist our chief scientist Mike to work Hi Mike. Thanks for coming down. Oh Jay, thanks for letting me come down to my home office Well, let me let me give you my thoughts and introduction here, you know a lot of confusion out there And yet this is the most important thing happening in the community in terms of you know medical experience public health And Donald Trump has done a fabulous job in confusing everybody. He's made all the wrong choices and he's got a kind of a kind of Musical chairs arrangement going on with the CDC the NIH his mysterious task force Where is dr. Fauci? Where is Deborah Birx? The whole thing is like a you know, it's like a reality show but it isn't helping us at all and there's a fragmentation all around the country in policy and most recently It's it's been revealed that he doesn't want to have testing because testing reveals too many cases and And he's you know, he's fooling a lot of people. It's it is that you belong kind of the demagogue thing It's fooling a lot of people and one day Hopefully they'll wake up and realize that you can't fool all the people all the time But for now, he's fooling at least a lot of a lot of people and at least some of the time So, um, you know science science should prevail here We're numbers are still going up. We're still number one in the world And we have to take stock of what we have learned what we are doing not only in the national Examination a little bit also in the local examination because there's a lot of confusion here, too It's really sad the united states can't do better, but here we are and at least we want to talk to every scientist We we can especially you about you know, where the science is going what we should know from it How should how we can use it to personally protect ourselves? Um, no one suggests for the future in terms of the pandemic Um, I think we had never forget this is happening. We can never be complacent never turn our backs Never go light on it and certainly never reject the science So mike we're going to talk about we're going to talk about the science today We're talking about what we have been learning and maybe what individuals and for that matter government organizations Even health departments can learn From the examination that you and other scientists make So since our last discussion, uh, what should we update in terms of the science? Well, there is some new data from india. I don't know if you saw it That's a new research on face shields and mask slide that They send these health care workers out into homes in india to interview people and to check on SARS-CoV-2 and They um What they found was that when they sent them out first they sat with personal protective equipment face masks, you know like we've all been wearing and um proper hand wash, you know that and if The uh 62 workers they sent out 12 got sick and they they visited 31 000 people 222 people in those homes that they visited got ill 12 of the health care workers got ill fortunately none of them died So they reset the whole program And rethought their protocols and one thing they added was the face shields that we're seeing around now After the face shields they sent 50 workers back out and they uh visited 118 000 people in 18 000 homes And uh in the course of that, uh, they found uh over almost 2,700 cases of the disease in the homes they visited but none of the workers got sick So they were having contact with more sick people Fewer the workers got sick none of the workers got sick when they added face shields to the masks Okay, so let me ask you some questions about that. How are the homes selected in the first case and in the second case? How how do they select the home? Why were they going to those homes? well, they were This is a very poor neighborhood in india that had a high incidence And they wanted to try to do the contact tracing So there were contact tracers trying to find out where the disease came from and where it was going Which we could do more of here in the united states, but so they selected these high-risk homes These workers sort of lived secluded away from other people because they knew they were doing high-risk things So then we're going to get it from anyone except for the people they visited And sure enough in the first case with just face masks and gloves and hand washing A dozen out of the out of the 62 workers got it So let's let's stop there for a minute. Sorry. I have so many questions for you Okay, so Just the the masks they they all wore masks They all went into homes with the possibility of covet and a certain number came out with covet And that that confirms the whole notion that if you spend more than x minutes In the presence of a covet infected person Your chances are pretty good About getting it and that's because what did the aerosol? That they're talking together, but if they're wearing masks, isn't that reduced? Why why is that because the air the air in the home or what? Yeah, so it does reduce it, but bear in mind these uh masks are maybe 90 percent effective if you just wear a mask these 62 workers had contact with 31 000 people And those 31 000 people over 200 had the disease so you know if you So Yeah, they spent a lot of time a couple hundred of the people they talked to had the disease So it's almost like a one and three transmission rate Okay, and then if you think they only got it from the symptom Yeah, oh from symptomatic people not even when they added the Attack with even more So yeah, we're in a mask plus a face shield for some reason seems to be much more effective at protecting you the health care worker than um wearing just a mask So mask plus a face shield protected all the health care workers even though they saw five times of any people Now the question is what is it about the face shield? They didn't The study wasn't powered to actually determine what it is about the face shield that helps is that that you're not touching your face so much or is that that you're disrupting the flow Droplets that might get through your mask Or or what is it and they need to do a follow-up study But for now, I definitely whenever I go to the grocery store where I'm asking to face shield now where we're in places. There's a lot of people That's Where do you get the face shield? Uh, yeah, I'm a hardware store. I mean This one I ordered from amazon.com If you get a bit long I think now a couple of other stores that seem to know if you have a decent mask on then a face shield Then then the lesson of that would not necessarily be you're getting aerosol in your mouth and nose because you have the mask on But uh, I wonder if it teaches us something about your eyes um Yeah, and maybe you know that that's a that's a weak point in terms of transmission Right because your uh tear ducts drain to your nose So if the virus gets in your eyes you can send to your respiratory system And uh, then you're off to the races once that happens Um, but the study wasn't really designed to discriminate that all those sources of transmission So it does bear a follow-up study to find out exactly what it is about the face shield that's helping Just wonder about I wonder about glasses Um, you know, I mean, I don't know if anybody done a study about that but people who wear glasses It's us protecting their eyes from aerosol And people don't wear glasses that that would that would be useful to know if there was a difference between glasses and no glasses You know, so if you you know, just these kinds of glasses are your regular prescription glasses a lot of space around It might not be as effective as say goggles full on like safety goggles that Seal around your eyes are a big mask that disrupts the airflow around your face completely. Yeah. Yeah Oh, that's very interesting. Um, are people in hawaii or on the mainland wearing face masks? I mean, I know it's it's useful. I mean, it's it's it's ubiquitous in hospitals in icy, uh, you know units and all that but Um, you're probably the only guy in in the food store that has a face mask. I mean, uh A plastic mask on Well, I've noticed that checkers at safeway here in kanai. Oh, hey It's a safe way over by the woodward mall There a lot of them are wearing face shields and masks So and then they also have the plastic barrier between them and a customer So they're taking they're taking it very seriously Uh, fortunately because they see hundreds of people maybe thousands of people every day and Well, it's what's interesting is that they've showed those gator masks that are single-air cloth gator masks don't work Um, they seem to actually break the drops up into big drops into many smaller drops And a bigger cloud so When you're faced with these uncertainties, you just do your best to understand the science and go with the best science you can get What's what's a gator? It's two layer cloth mask What's it? It's uh It's one of those things that you see a lot of people wear where it covers your nose and comes down to your neck And sometimes they have like little designs on them um It's a it's a single layer of cloth. It's mostly meant for a motorcycle motocross Cyclocross to keep dust out of your face. It's not really meant to really protect you from transmission of viruses It's it's mostly for dust protection Yeah, like a cyclocross Well, you said in your slide here the study should be followed up in a controlled trial In the meantime, it's probably more prudent to wear a face shield and a mask in that's what i'm going to do I hope a lot of people watch this and follow your advice You'll have to find a culture. We have to find a way of living You know, and uh, this is a step in that direction step in the direction and it's only a Stop gap between that vaccine. You know the vaccine is what we really really need And uh, but it has to be a safe and effective vaccine um So there is another slide how effective a vaccine needs to be Yeah, um there's there was a study that actually a mathematical study that was published in jama and uh the 80 a vaccine If only 75 of the people get it it needs to be 80 effective to shut down a pandemic um and in order to um If only 60 of the people get it has to be 100 effective to shut down the pandemic now 100 sounds high, but it's you know measles vaccines if you get one dose is 95 effective you get two it's a 99 effective so um The vaccine's only good if people take it But maybe we can backstand as few as 60 percent if the vaccine is really really really effective and still shut down the pandemic Uh, it's already going I I still don't fully understand that suppose I'm in the 40 percent. I have not taken the vaccine And suppose you're also in the 40 percent. You haven't taken the vaccine And um, we were in a room together for an hour Breathing on each other Or breathing breathing into the room and it's hanging there in the aerosol Um, I'm going to give it to you or you're going to give it to me or We're both going to give it to each other. You know, there will be transmission It's it's almost a certainty in the that if we both have it that this will be some transmission If we spend an hour in that room together close, yeah Yes, there is a there is a problem that if you're You if you're an unvaccinated person or not an immune person who's exposed to somebody who has a disease You have a risk of getting the disease So this is this whole herd immunity problem um Like we showed before with the simulations that ran and showed last time Um, if you don't get 100 of the population protected They will eventually get 100 infected if you have a constant receding of the disease from outside So if if you say hawaii shut down coronaviruses no more local transmission And then we let the tourists come back and they come from places where they still have coronavirus Eventually we're going to get it. You know, you might be in that lucky 40 percent, but you're eventually going to be in the unlucky 100 percent so That's the thing with the vaccine. You've got to vaccinate. You got to be aggressive about trying to vaccinate as many people in the whole planet as you can um Because if we vaccinate at least 60 percent of the world population everywhere Then we can shut down the disease and make it extinct. That's what this study seems to imply if it's a But but making it extinct is not immediate making extinct will take some time Not an It'll take time. Yeah, and in the process people will die additional people will die. Oh, yeah, of course And you have to be vigilant about your protection. That's like polio. We've been in the united states polio is extinct, but it's not extinct in the world And we're only a few wars in afghanistan and pakistan away from again into the Getting out of control again Um on the other hand, we've made a smallpox extinct. It took until the 1950s to make smallpox extinct in the world, but we did So there's not there's no reason we can't make this disease extinct too We just have to be willing to vaccinate everybody And people have to you know, they have a you can trust So like the russians come up first. I'm not sure we trust their trial just because I know they're Top-down method of making decisions are highly motivated to Panoramic picture for us, but I'll be very interested in reading the journal articles and see what peer reviewers say You know, they're doing that trials in mexico. Did I did I tell you that? They're doing their trials in mexico. We learned it from somebody in mexico and in fact amla the president of mexico Um is is involved in their trials. He's taking their vaccine I I guess they had trouble finding any other place Um, but but apparently the mexicans are willing to do it for one geopolitical reason or another Is this the russian vaccine or a different one the russian vaccine vaccine. That's interesting. Yeah Interesting willing to do it, but they're willing to take a chance on well, good Uh, well, I don't know if it's good. It's hope it works. I hope the vaccine is effective Doesn't have too many side effects Unless you want as a vaccine that has bad side effects and isn't as protective as you want it to be Yeah, like we say it means to be 80 percent protective. Yeah It's like it's like One of these one of these drugs that trump was Uh advocating for actually killed people Aggroxychloroquine, yeah Aggroxychloroquine, yeah So that's that's troubling But I wanted to ask you about mutation Mike, you know, have you heard anything like that? Somebody was saying this is somebody who was a somebody who was associated with the medical community was telling me that That there's there's talk about a mutation and how do you tell the mutation? Well, the disease presents differently than it used to Um, you know, the the symptoms presenting the duration of the symptoms and the stages of the disease are different The damage it does to you different. Um, have you heard anything or read anything about that? I've read things, but I have not read anything that says they've definitely definitively identified A more virulent or more dangerous version of the disease Uh, the thing about mutations is that they can work for or against the organism They can make it more dangerous or they can make it less dangerous What we've seen with some diseases is that over time the it's something that's got a very high fatality rate in the beginning ends up with a lower fatality rate After many many generations of transmission because if finds if it doesn't if it kills few of its victims it can find more victims Well, you know think about it, I mean the uh The uh bubonic plague did not go away Because because humankind found a cure It's just it's like trump said, although I never give him any credit on this It's like trump said it'll go away. It'll it'll disappear. What he said, of course We can start with antibiotics. Oh, but that was in the 20th century Out of our houses and yeah once we identified the vector For the transmission of the z's and found that we can control it Um, we could control it, you know, it's it's like cholera We we don't vaccinate people with cholera. We just have good sewage treatment plants So we don't die of cholera in the first world anymore That's a serious third world problem. It's not a first world problem Um, it's not magic. It's science I'm reminded I just do it I'm reminded of the pope and the pope in Avignon In the 14th century And they were having terrible problems with the plague And for reasons that were not clear scientifically In his chambers, he built two fires One at either end of the chambers and he had them roaring all the time I think probably the analysis was that the flames would help Or maybe the heat would help them or the hot air would help But in fact, what was happening is that the fire was scaring the rats away And that's why the pope survived without without being infected with the plague Makes sense, you know, sometimes it's better to be lucky than Than to have that right and have the right hypothesis. It's just sometimes better to be just lucky Well, it's like research in general, isn't it? Sometimes it's trial and error And you don't know whether a given thing is going to work But you wake up in the morning with a bright idea and you try it and my my goodness, it works Yeah, like the buddhist The buddhist doctors are thinking might have been spay them and just a bureaucrat They went to this area that had cholera removed the pump from the well remove the handle from the well So nobody can use a word from that well and they had to go get water from a different well and the cholera epidemic stopped And everybody proved that it was contaminating water and spudding the cholera But he also saved a lot of people's lives And that one observation then spawned this whole line of investigation that now a Yeah, modern sanitation came about Yeah Well, what about what about, uh, you know the vaccine and how are we doing yet? You heard anything about that? I mean, it seems to me that you know, we have so many shiny objects being thrown at us politically and geopolitically and I don't know all these story lawsuits and Controversies, I mean it just goes on and on every day all day It's like Jerry Seinfeld said the amazing thing about the newspapers these days is just enough space for all the news He was right Yeah But I mean what what's happening because we we were distracted with so many things and and we should be following that you know The vaccines more carefully. I think but we you know, I haven't heard much about it. Have you Yeah, well, I guess there's like dozens of vaccines and trial maybe hundreds Some trials are more advanced and I was like AstraZeneca Pfizer They have some pretty advanced trials Moderna Uh, they're probably the three the leaders. No Moderna and AstraZeneca Pfizer The vaccines could be tested for say safety and efficacy by the end of the year, but then how do you scale up? Um, there's pharmaceutical labs in India that are able to scale up That's what they do. They make a lot of a lot of doses of a lot of drugs for you know, generic markets And so it's if the world will cooperate with each other You know, the United States and get all for pride. Yes, we got to make the vaccine ourselves We could possibly You know middle of next year have a vaccine that's actually safe effective and distributed widely Which is what we really need. We need the world to put aside this pride of invention And just say look we're going to Work whoever gets there first. We're all going to band together and get this out there to protect people Well, what I hear you're saying is that maybe there's not not as much collaboration As there should be now what what's interesting is if you talk to a given scientist And whenever I mean medical researcher, whenever I talk to them, I ask them Is are you collaborating and I get a I get a Mushy answer because I want to I want to hear that he's collaborating with his fellows Everywhere in the world. I want to hear that he's part of the altruistic groups That compare notes every day that get on the phone email share their findings every day, but I don't I don't hear that I don't think that's happening I say last time it's scared off by the way this administration has treated The few that have been collaborating like there was that research group that was collaborating with the Chinese to study How coronavirus involves in bats and how they can control that development in bats because bats were identified as a High-risk organism for incubating these novel diseases. You see that not just in China, but you see in Africa Marburg fever and other horrible hemorrhagic diseases And they were sanctioned by the government they were told that If they want to work with this lab in china, they've got to violate a bunch of chinese laws In terms of disclosing information. That's like Okay, so they're just not going to be able to do it. They're not going to be able to work with the chinese anymore It's too bad because it slows down the process, you know Yeah well The other thing it's happened only in the last day or so is We find that the fta I'm sorry. Maybe the fta also The cdc nih has been compromised by the president He tells them what what they what they should say and they say it and then the medical community says wait a minute. That's not true And so now you have a crisis of confidence Yeah, like on the tracing and testing there's a slide up there about that, but you've got a test You have to test asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic people And and your contact if you don't test Everybody's been in contact with somebody sick You can't do your tracing you can't Run the disease, you know down and prevent it from getting out and infecting more people And this idea that the government could come out and say oh never mind the testing of the asymptomatic people Even though they might be carriers if they're not sick, that's not test and that's that's crazy guidance that just came out today I sure so I'm Yeah, so i'm glad that uh, Caldwell is saying that we're going to test more trace more It's kind of late. I mean we need to hire hundreds of contact tracers uh has trained a bunch I think the most important skill for these contact tracers will a they got to have Enough training to know how to protect medical information. You got to pay attention to the hepa rules But the other thing is they got to have a good ability to build a rapport with at-risk communities You know if you know that this virus is spreading, you know in a micronesian community just for an example of one that is high risk You want people who they trust And people that they can say if I tell this person who I've talked to Will they they won't do anything bad of that information they really want to help And that's a very that's probably the most important skill But you look at the uh is a testing program and you've got to have a college degree And you have to have Worked in a health care field And that's pretty high bar and in some of these underserved communities. You're not going to find a lot of people Actually have those qualifications to be trained so There was a mistake and one of the things that came out is that when they got all trained up at manoa And they went down to the department of health to be deployed Department of health said well, you know, you had to training in manoa, but you didn't have our training You're not ready yet. You have to be trained twice. What's that about? Um, you know, it's completely disorganized But then of course you had those legislators who went to see to find the tracers and Uh, there were no tracers. I mean a handful of tracers went the government assured us there'd be hundreds of them There were a half a dozen of them That whole thing was really that's a crisis of confidence too The question is how are we going to really proceed from now? And who's going to be doing what you want to call it the legislative supervision, you know to keep them keep them that's the problem You know take the executive branch these days and they're supposed to do stuff To you know deal with a pandemic like this and they don't and then they give us You know information that's not accurate and not complete and I think it's you know, the hawaii has not come out very well on this No, we were doing so well as seemed for a couple months there and now it's like doubling every 16 days or so and In that doubling rate, we're going to overwhelm the healthcare system in about a month We're going to have every ICU bed full and we'll be having to turn people away from Yeah queen's hospital queen's hospital used to have two floor dedicated to covet Now they have three That's a serious increase So what about the test themselves, you know, we know that ocean it has developed a test And that one's a pending fda approval. I think We talked to a guy in michigan a research scientist in michigan Here on think tech and this is also pending an fda test. I don't know what the problem is with the fda. I mean, uh Uh, can we develop these tests and start using them? They're all stuck in the pipeline somewhere including here There's a lot of other tests that look for antibodies or antigens There's one test that's really fast that looks for this Antigens to the spike protein on the outside of the coronavirus They don't need to tear the virus apart to look for, you know, something to latch onto or they just look for the spike protein Um, those tests aren't as accurate as pcr They have a false alarm rate and they have a false a false negative rate So the problem with the false Rate is that every time somebody is positive you've got to follow it up with an accurate test You know that accurate test may take a couple days But if there's a false negative what that means is you need to be just testing people more often If today's test is negative and you're positive then maybe tomorrow's test will be positive And and you can they'll find out So that's that's a problem of these antigen tests and antibody tests Is that they're not as accurate as pcr for some reason fda is holding the industry to an accuracy standard That's like 80 a pcr which you know It's in a we're in a war with this virus Maybe the 60 percent solution or the 70 percent solution is what we need until we get a get a handle on a vaccine Because right now we don't even know how many people we have that are infected. We know we're under counting and There's some speculation that the government is deliberately under counting They don't want to know I don't know if that's a case in hawaii, but it looks like it's the case nationally Yeah, it looks like it's a case in hawaii too. It really does feel the same way They haven't been testing and it comes out that uh, josh green has wanted testing more testing and The governor and the department of health don't and there's probably for political reasons But let me let me give you a scenario though, mike So I haven't had this conversation with anybody. I would like to Have a conversation like this just to learn what it's like So you have some symptoms or maybe you don't But you feel that you've got to get tested. So you get tested. This is like an awful medical experience They tell you that you're positive Okay, and and maybe you're you're also compromised this one way or another or in many ways And here you are you're okay, you know, it's uh, it's a cold, you know, it's gonna you've got some symptoms, but not much But there's the prospect There's there's the prospect that that you're going to get a lot sicker You don't know that some people don't but there's the possibility is there How do you sleep at night with that kind of possibility on you? And furthermore and furthermore, you know, you hear all the stuff about how the government's not being candid The tests are not accurate You may have to get tested again. Maybe you should get tested again There's all these vagaries and confusion points all swirling around you in a moment. We are completely stressed out You know, you are you are terrified of the possibilities, especially if you're compromised Uh, you know, I think I think one thing government should do is to try to give you consistent advice And to try to give you a regiment to follow where you can control it somehow and not it not be terrified Yeah, I mean like if we find out for example that exercise just get on the treadmill keep your lungs clear helps Maybe I don't know that everybody can afford to put a treadmill in their home There's some anecdotal evidence that That kind of thing does help you keep clear keep your lungs clear of the covid Even if you've been infected, but those were just anecdotes so far There's a movement to improve the amount the availability of treatment at home Or you can have home health you can stay home But get telemedicine or a visiting health care nurse Come treat you that you're not in the hospital We might spread it around or expose more people just because you're out there traveling around And then you know, it's just stress management Yeah, the big problem with this disease is that if you test positive You're quarantined for 14 days I mean, you're not going to work if you don't have the kind of job where you can work from home Even if you feel well enough to actually sit and to do your work you can't work So that's that's a problem And that's where we get a lot of essential workers and unfortunately, it's the low wage workers that are mostly in that position the grocery store clerks On the truck drivers the people that don't necessarily make the most money Are the ones that have to be out there to make any money? So yeah, it's a hard problem. I'll not solve it How do you how do you deal with the stress of that and then if you're not sleeping you run to your immune system down So now you've got a double Double risk, you know an extra risk there Yeah, what one last thing I wanted to ask you about it is I saw this. I don't know if you saw it You know, we heard a few months ago that it was all about deterioration of your lungs And the virus would eat your lungs And you need a ventilator and there was this whole political thing about the ventilators and the defense production act and all that and too many ventilators here too few there People competing for ventilators. We haven't heard much about that. In fact, what I what I last saw was that, you know The whole ventilator thing may have passed and that what what really happens here is is blood clots in the lungs and there are some doctors who are using blood thinners to resolve those clots and Using that kind of technique There's really no need for a lot of people for the crisis management with with ventilators I don't know if that's so or who's using that but I I do operate on this assumption and I I'm really asking about this too is that The doctors on the front line health care professionals in the front line are learning In difficult circumstances, they are learning tips and tricks on how you deal with this disease And they're better at it now than they were say 90 days ago. What do you think? It might be why our Figtality rate in a y is closer to 1% now than the 3% it was originally um But we're also learning things that Go the other way that we're learning that there are these lawn haulers You know something like some studies is 30 percent some studies 90 percent of the people who get the disease and have symptoms Now don't get over the symptoms for months You know in various degrees of disability and illness, but um These lawn haul cases Seriously will impair people's ability to work And they'll seriously impair our economic potential If to be you know kind of mercenary about it if you can't go to work and be you know Highly efficient than the gross domestic product of the bound um And that's something we've got to Figure out, you know, how do we a how prevalent is is a true prevalence of these lawn haul cases? 30 of the people that show symptoms 90 percent 10 percent um And then how do we treat these lawn haul people to get them healthy again? Um, because these this is just one disease. This is a cardiac disease and neurologic disease The the number of organs this thing can compromise just Seems to be everything practically You know and that's that's that's Kind of the weird scary thing about this, you know and um As far as the bleeding in your lawns goes and the micro You know the little microscopic ruptures of your blood vessels that clog up your whole egg roli Um kumadin other blood there's they have side effects You know they can cause brain bleeds. You could end up with a hemorrhagic stroke um I would like before they switch from ventilators to blood thinners to see In a large scale. I'd like to see a controlled trial um treatment versus treatment with blood thinners versus treatment with a ventilator What's this survival rate relatively between those two groups and I haven't seen anything published on that at all One one final public health issue is is that okay? We're going into a kind of lockdown again um To some people it sounds irrational, you know just to compare one aspect of the lockdown against another aspect A friend of mine called me said he likes to go hiking and uh, so the lockdown keeps a matter of parks. You can't go hiking And on the other hand, uh You know you can you can do other things which actually are more dangerous than hiking So it's not clear who who helped the governor design this latest lockdown because The parts don't necessarily comport on a rational basis, but my question to you is You think all that we know now And all that we know about the you know the multiplication effect of the infection Um, is this is this going to help suppress the curve the way it did before or are people in a certain complacency now? Where the lockdown isn't going to help that much. You have any thoughts about that? You know the research is pretty clear that breathing heavy coughing talking singing Are all risky things You know if you're outside in a well ventilated area away from other people Um, and you're just talking quietly to whoever you're walking with. Yeah, somebody at same household risk is low If you're outside exercising in a group of a lot of people Risk is moderate, but if you're indoors doing that, you know with poor ventilation risk is very high MIT has done this study Yeah, it's singing. Oh boy. It turns out to be a really risky thing to do even outdoors if you're singing with a group that's That's risky mask or no mask So I guess the thing is Activities where you're yelling like cheering at a game singing breathing heavily Talking loudly You know you those activities are all risky I don't know why hiking was banned and maybe because it aside the groups of two or two more Or two bigger than 10 and too many people were hiking together. Um, it seems like it's a low risk activity to me Outdoors well ventilated groups small groups, but you are breathing heavy and that does produce aerosol droplets Um, of course swimming in the ocean well They breathe them heavy, but you're not you're usually more than six feet away from anyone else. So That's that's better Questions there is a question whether six beats enough or whether it should be 16 feet or 30 feet or something more That hasn't been settled, but still the distance plus avoiding the heavy breathing the singing the talking loudly the cheering helps avoiding crowds helps Use your common sense and if you can't avoid a crowd where you're a mask and face shield And uh, don't sing Don't be around people we're singing at you Yeah, and and and stay out of kanosha wisconsin with everybody In a crowd screaming at the top of their lungs That doesn't sound like it's very healthy. We're probably going to see some effect over that in a couple of weeks I like the Sturgis motorcycle rally a lot already identified 70 cases that are probably originated there And it might just be the tip of the iceberg. They never didn't know how Yeah, right could be more Well, okay, we have to Go ahead By the people that stormed the Idaho legislature demanding that they not Protect them from coronavirus these people weren't wearing masks. They were carrying guns They were trying to intimidate the legislators and that crowd of people put themselves and everyone else at risk Yeah, the ultimate lack of consideration At warrior masks, you know avoid crowds social distance It sounds like common sense Apparently common sense isn't very common No, if I go swimming in the ocean or a pool And I um, you know, I'm I'm shedding virus The virus doesn't survive in the in the seawater. We're in the pool. Does it? I don't think as much evidence that well pools chlorinated So that should pretty well take care of the virus. I'm not sure about the ocean, but I don't think there's a lot. I haven't seen any evidence that there's that it survives in seawater very long Um, it's it's kind of a fragile virus. It really really really likes to be a human host and You know, even just a good soap and water dose Kills it and even you don't even need alcohol really The alcohol is a good thing to disinfect it, but just wash hands and soap and water kills the virus very effectively. Yeah Well, Mike, I I we got to follow this we got to follow the curve But next time we talk, I'd also like to follow the what I'm going to call it the sociology of it And how how various things affect a curve that may that may be science, but maybe social science also Yeah, social science is so much harder than physics I think you might be quoted on that one, Mike Mike DeWerner our chief scientist here on Think Deck. Thank you so much for coming around Hello. Stay safe