 Alright, what's up everybody this is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week, had a good weekend, all that good stuff. We are going into a potentially very volatile week. We do have the FOMC this week and honestly I'm not looking forward to it because it's a shit show every single time. There's a lot of volatility and sometimes there's not a lot of clarity and you sometimes have to wait for the trend to form afterwards after the meeting comes out. Let all the news digest and then you can find some good trade. So I'm probably not really going to pay much attention to any fresh swings this week to open but maybe mostly day trades, scalps, all that good stuff. Let the news digest. Unless you have a pretty good expiration date, something with a further out expiration to deal with any drawdown risk or further volatility. There's not really any big data sets until Wednesday which is going to be the FOMC. You can see at 2pm they drop the interest rate decision so you'll know if they hiked, paused or cut and then at 2.30 the meeting will come in as usual and I believe that lasts about an hour or so maybe up until 3.30 or so. So really that's just a big day. Not exactly sure how it's going to go but one thing I do know we have this meeting which might make it a little bit more volatile. We do have an SEP or the summary of economic projections also known as the dot plot. So the dot plot is basically just the Fed's opinion on where they think rates will be. I believe it has multiple voting members. They put down a dot on the chart where they think the interest rate will be at a certain time and that's basically a projection for traders to go off of and also investors. It's mostly just an opinion. It's not a guarantee of where rates will end up and in what time they will end up there but it does give a good insight into where they think they will end up based on all the data that they go off of. As you know the Fed is very data dependent so after each data set that could change their mind and where rates will end up, thus that kind of changes the SEP every time they include the SEP or dot plot inside their meeting. So it's very important. It's going to cause volatility. It may be different from the last dot plot but we'll find out. We will have an idea of where rates will end up and then on Thursday we do have the PMIs. We have services and manufacturing PMI here at 945. I would say you maybe could pay attention to the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey as well. This is a hit or miss if it moves the market. Also have existing home sales and Fed Bar speaking at 12 and then it looks like Fed Powell is going to take part in a listen event. Not sure what this is exactly. Could be a market mover. Not sure Fed Powell is going to speak at it but it could be interesting. Then also have Michael Barr speaking again at 12 p.m. And also Bostick at 4 when the market closes. So most important is going to be the FOMC decision of course and the press conference and then we also have services and manufacturing PMIs. Maybe pay attention to existing home sales as well. And on to the seasonality for this week. We do actually have a historically bearish week this week. This is the 18th to the 22nd. You can see summarized profit at 15% over the last 20 years. Winning trades at 70%. So if you went short from the 18th to the 22nd the last 20 years you would have won 14 times with only six losses. So this period does have a pretty high probability based off the last 20 years that we could see a pullback in the market. You can see the average profit is at 0.74%. So it looks like there could be a higher probability of a pullback. But keep in mind seasonality has been botched the last month or so. You can see in February we're supposed to kind of pullback. This has a little bit more winning trades and a higher win rate than this little period right here because this period was only in 50, 60% winning trades. This period is at 70% winning trades. So it could be worth keeping an eye on. Obviously, we don't really have a major reversal signal in the market yet. Still trending over your moving averages and stuff like that on the spy. NASDAQ did break under its one day 21 EMA. So we'll go over that later. But overall, we're kind of still in an uptrend. Structures are still holding for now. And for the 10 year data set, it's pretty similar. You can see winning trades at 70%. This just has less data in it. Gains at 7, losses at 3. So if you went short from the 18th to the 22nd, the last 10 years, you would have won seven times, lost three. So both periods are pretty similar, averaging and pullback based off history. Definitely keep an eye on it. And then right after that, you can see we do kind of average a really big rally. Once we start getting out of March here, getting to the midway point towards the end of March and into April. The rally does get a little bit bigger historically. So keep an eye on that as well. And on to the setups this week, you can see we have three. We have Tesla, CVS and American Airlines. Tesla is kind of a contrarian trade, actually, because we are kind of pulling into this lower channel line has been selling off. We don't really have a real reversal signal yet. We don't have price taking out the previous bar high or anything like that. It is still kind of hanging at low. So it's a little bit riskier. The one thing you're going off here is this lower channel line. You have a test one, a test two. This is now a test three at the lower channel line. So we will be looking for some type of short term bounce here, at least, maybe for scouts, maybe for a little day trade, something like that. Obviously, the max upside I could see is up to 175, which is this previous low. Also a short term bounce area right here. If you zoom in, just two small little candles tried to react off. They have one right here and one right here, closed ugly and went for another leg lower. But there was a small reaction to 175. There's also a nice bounce zone right here off 175. So you want to consider 175 as pretty much your ceiling for right now until it can reclaim. What's the reclaims over that 175? You can start shooting for more. But Tesla obviously looking a little bit oversold. Maybe a little bit is an understatement. It's been getting sold off since the new year started. Probably one of the worst stocks in the max seven. I don't even know if it's in the max seven anymore after shedding so much market cap. You can see your today is down almost 35 percent here. So very rough year for Tesla so far. Maybe if your demand is actually slowing and market is correct. I feel like with Tesla overall, you kind of do have to be selective when you trade it because it can fall into ruts very easily. And the ruts last a long time and it kind of sucks. You can see the trading really hasn't been that good. Honestly, since like July, I mean, this is the last time I had a really big kind of straight rally to the upside. These are kind of just been dead cab bounces and legs lower dead cab bounce legs lower. So price action has been tough on Tesla. I really don't like trading it too much, but I really do like this lower channel line. So we'll look at calls on this just in case kind of look for the short term bounce. Maybe this little candle is signaling something. But obviously, this is still kind of in a breakdown pattern, right? You got a leg lower, a base, and that could leg lower again, depending on Monday. So we really need to hold this channel line, especially you could probably keep it tight and just watch 160. If it starts breaking under 160, you could probably start looking at something now. So just keep it extra tight under 160 should signal under this channel support. Maybe you could lower it just a little bit, maybe like 158 or something just to give you a little bit of leeway because it can dip under the channel support and then come back out. I mean, we've seen that plenty of times where it wakes under comes back up and it holds the channel support. So you got to be careful with that. But definitely watch 160 flat as a psychological level. I'm guessing that is a short term psychological level right now. So definitely watch it and watch this channel support. But Tesla looking at calls, just day trades, scouts, maybe a debit spread further out expiration April minimum to deal with the price action because the price action on Tesla can be tough. But I feel like a debit spread or maybe a put credit spread to the upside could deal with a little bit of that risk. All right, next we're going into CVS. You can see we're breaking out of a pretty clear wedge pattern here. We have a test one, a test two short term, test three rejection to break out. Test one, test two, basically test three, four, five on these bars right here. Close enough for me. This is a clear uptrend. This is a clear downtrend. So we are breaking out of that symmetrical wedge now. So it's definitely worth to keep on watch for some upside. Obviously, it will need to get over 7830, which is this clear resistance area right here needs to break over that and make a base on it. Obviously, it can just shoot right over as well. But for a really solid trade, you want to see that back test holding, make a base solid structure, then it can leg higher. If it can do that, you can start looking for that 8325, which is this peak right here. Pretty simple. One level right here, one level right here wedge break out. There's really not anything too technical here or difficult. If it starts breaking back under the uptrend line or starts breaking back inside the downtrend line, you can start looking at something else, maybe 7260 or maybe 73 flat, something like that. It can be your risk off. Yeah, 7304, if it breaks under this, you can probably start looking at something else because if it breaks under the 73 flat, it's probably going to be under the uptrend line, too. So just watch that as an invalidation level. If it does want to go back in, maybe the market wants to go bearish this week or something, that's kind of your risk off level to look at something else. Obviously, CVS, I mean, it's up 1.28% with the spy down 1%. So maybe this is a value trade, some sort of a defensive play while the market goes lower. But it's pretty straightforward. CVS looking at calls, maybe some longer dated for swings. I feel like the volatility is not too bad on this name. So if the market does pull back, I feel like the drawdowns are not too bad, usually. So maybe some longer data calls to hold through the FOMC is probably the best option. Not exactly sure about this on a day trade or about the liquidity on the options chain. You probably have to look into that maybe longer dated for these first swing trade. All right. And last but not least, we're going over AAL or American Airlines. You can see kind of been in a small little rut here the past couple of weeks. Had a really big rejection up here. This is actually a really clean example of a 61.8% rejection or the 61.8 Fibonacci level. This is usually the best Fibonacci to trade off of, whether you're measuring an uptrend or a downtrend as such. In this case, we measured a downtrend from this peak down to this low. That gives you your 61.8 up here at the 1594. Had a pretty nice rejection almost right here. I would say it's close enough to count as a 61.8 rejection. Same right here again, kind of a double top, right? Rejected super hard off again right here. So a good example of that. Also breaking this little channel it has, test one, test two. You can probably even draw it like this as well. So you got a test one, a test two and a test three, because there is a clear short term bounce right here. So no matter how you draw it, it was obviously a clear channel of sorts. Yeah, they're touching the upper channel line twice, at least also three times on your lower. So there's two sides to it and the counts as a channel. Now we're starting to break under it. We might have a little bear flag on our hands. Obviously it's not the best one. You have a leg consolidation, maybe some base candles for supply and then could make another leg lower. Obviously the lowest you can shoot probably this little 1280 area, which is this little low right here or the 23.6 Fibonacci level. Probably will need to stay under that 14 flat or at least stay around it in order to flush lower. But it's pretty clear there's some type of trend shift trying to happen here for the moving averages. We are under all of them. We're under the nine, the 21, your 50s, your more thicker one right here. And then your dots are your 200 EMA. So you can see that the 200 did get tested on this bar and this bar, but it ended up closing under it. So we are under all the moving averages, maybe a crossover of your short terms, like your nine, 21 and 50 crossing over the 200. That could give it a good signal for downside. As you can see, when it did it right here, back when all of them crossed right here, we had a big downtrend down. Maybe we need to see something like that as well. But as long as this is staying under the 200, you can kind of use that 200 EMA or the 50 as your risk off. If it pops back over those, you can stop out of the puts or you can use your channel line. If it starts going back within the channel, back inside, reclaiming the trend, all that good stuff. No matter how you draw, that could be a risk off signal as well or an invalidation level. If it starts going back inside of it, you could probably use this little short term level right here as well. What is that 1429, this little short term balance. If it gets back over that little structure, it could reclaim back into the uptrend and also get back over structure and go back up. But you do have a lot of moving averages in the way. Like I said, you have a pretty big cluster here. We can even get rid of the drawings. All these clusters can act as resistance and let it lower. KDJ also negative. So as long as that's staying negative as well, you're under all your moving averages, you're under your trend. I would say this could be a trend shift to the downside for now. So AAL, I'm going to look at puts on this one. All right, not to the indexes. We're going over the spy. You can see we have just been focused on that 9 and 21 EMA combo and rightfully so because we dipped into it again last week right here. Here's Monday. We dipped into that nine. Had a bounce directly off of it and also on Tuesday as well. We had a big 1% day off that nine right there proving yet again that the nine and 21 combo is just a great strategy right now on the one day. Key buying dips at that might have a little short term trend shift here. So we need to watch this carefully, but we are at the 21. So as long as this is holding the 21 for now, I have to assume that it could just bounce back off of it, as you can see there. But overall still holding over your structures here. We do have a little 503 structure right there at the gap. Also has a little drop based rally demand zone. It's pretty small, but it did bounce off it right here. We are starting to get under those trend lines though that we drew last week. I can even draw them out again for you. So we have a line starting at October lows. We go to right here with test one, test two, test three, test four, five, six, seven. But then we also have a little loose higher low right here that you'd want to mark right there. So that's another way to draw it. If you draw it like that, you can count this as a bounce and this as a bounce as well. So there's a couple ways to draw it. That's why I have both just to leave no loose ends. And we are under both of those now. So I hope that makes sense. We're starting to get under that. But like I said, it does need to start getting under the 21 EMA and closing under that. That's why I'm looking at those separately. So here's your 21. It will need to get under that. But you do have that signal under the trend line. So I hope that helps. Like I said, structure here, 503s. Overall, it probably needs to get under that 503s and into the gap for a real reversal signal. Also get under your 21. And like I said, but you are starting to get that shift on the uptrend line. If for some reason it does just reclaim back on to the trend lines, it's probably because it bounced off the 21. Like I just showed you, probably just did a repeat of this and this right here. If it bounces back up and reclaims. So make sure it gets under that 21 before getting too bearish. But also keep in mind, we are starting to break under your uptrend lines here. So a little bit of a shift from last week, not too much of a change, though. This was last Friday's close. We're just right here. So just one little shift in the playbook here. You also have clear resistance, 518s or so, 517s as well. These little rejection areas. One big rejection bar, two rejections right here to lead to this. So maybe mark those as well. You have a very tight structure support right here at 50850. You can mark that for day trade levels. So if you want to do that, you can do that too. We can even get rid of this if you just want horizontal levels. Mark your 50850, 51738, 51822. The little structure right here, right? You got a short-term bounce off this, short-term bounce off this. That's at 504.91. So we have 504.91, 503.02, 508.50 below, 517.38, 518.22 above. So that's kind of your nearby trading levels, at least for short-term stuff. So if you want to go ahead and mark those, go ahead and mark those too. All right, and last but not least for our index analysis, we will go into the NASDAQ or the QQQ. So this week, we do have a trend shift a little bit here. We are starting to close under that 1-day 21 EMA. I would like to remind everybody though, the last time we closed under it right here and right here, we did get back over it. So we really need to see that structure break under 433.71. We really want to see that close inside the gap, or at least just a little bit inside of it. And that's so we can see that it's actually starting to break structure. You can see Friday here, we kind of went a little bit inside of it. You can see really there's just one big bar down inside the gap. There's even a tester right here, but overall, we went back over it. So we kind of keep farting around at this. We've bounced from it before, probably two or three times. You can see this general area bounced right here, bounced right here, kind of a little bounce candle right here. It didn't tap it directly. But overall, you can see, I mean, above this 433, markets have been staying in shape. So we really need to get inside this gap, maybe start closing inside of it for a real reversal signal. But there is signs that we are starting to break that trend. Here's your trend from October lows. It's pretty clear that we're starting to get something shift here. Test one, test two, test three bounce attempt now failing. So under that 433, 71, that can give a really nice flush to the downside. You would probably need to start looking at that 421, 63, and also 416, 79, assuming it starts filling the gap. Maybe even when the gap closes, you can look for a short term bounce there as well. But if it gets back inside, you do want to consider these lower pivots right here. So that 416s and 421s would be a good bounce area as well. So clear trend shift here, at least the start of one. But like I said, needs to get under 433, 71 for a real flush down. But that's really all I got for you guys this week. We don't have to close under the SPY 21 EMA yet, but we are getting kind of close, I guess, QQQ for sure did close under the 21, also closing under your trend. SPY also closing under that trend line. So definitely want to keep that on watch. Maybe that's aligning with that bear seasonality tilt. Like I said, if you went short the past 20 years in this period coming up from the 18th to the 22nd, you would have won 14 times. Pretty good odds, I would say, for some downside. Not exactly sure what's going to happen, though, with the FOMC meeting. It's a total gamble, and I'd be lying if I said I knew what was going to happen. But we do have technical starting to point down a little bit on the indexes, at least. Maybe some of these setups can give us some good day trades and stuff like that for scalps, at least up until the FOMC. And then maybe after the news digests, we can take some longer term swings, start being a little bit more confident about overnight holds, because we know that it's not going to turn on us in the blink of an eye. So hope you guys enjoyed this video. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe to our Xtrades YouTube channel. I did put up a new educational video this week. I believe I put it up maybe Tuesday or Monday or something. It's a new video on finding market reversals using candles. So go ahead and check that out. It's a nice little crash course for beginners. Maybe even for people who just want to make their trading a little bit more simple. So be sure to go check that out in the channel. I love you guys. Make sure you like, comment, and subscribe, and I'm out. There's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas. With over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors, users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time. 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