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We do have a pretty data stacked week We actually just had some geopolitical issues come up Palestine launched a surprise attack on Israel So there is some stuff overseas going on right now No idea how that's going to affect the futures But we do have to keep it in mind if the US gets involved we could see some Volatility in the markets just from that so this week for economic data. We do have a couple Fed speakers on Monday I wouldn't say this is gonna affect the market too much Tuesday. We do have wholesale inventories This is always a hit or miss if it's going to affect the market Wednesday probably the second most important besides the CPIs is the producer price index So we have that core PPI PPI year over year core PPI year over year And then we also have the Fed minutes from the last F1C meeting So that's gonna definitely move the market if anybody missed anything from the last meeting And they see anything different in black and white inside the minutes released by the Fed We could see some market volatility The Algos would pick up on it and we'll see that pretty much reflecting into price instantly Soon as it drops at 2 p.m. Eastern that Thursday a usual initial job was claims then we have the CPI So consumer price index core CPI CPI year over year and core CPI year over year This is the big one This is going to move the market the most and I'm hoping we get a pretty good print Because we are in desperate need of some good data lately and markets have been very sensitive to data And the Fed is watching very closely So as long as the Fed is data dependent, we are data dependent And then Friday nothing crazy. I would just say the consumer sentiment Probably the most important that day that comes out of 10 30 minutes after the bell rings So most importantly CPI Second most important PPI and the minutes and then maybe wholesale inventories And that's for the data this week. So maybe a little bit wise to not swing anything into CPI Unless you're absolutely sure you want to take that risk because it's totally random And it's a coin toss and Friday's data with the non-farm payrolls proved that we actually had a hot Print come in we added a lot of jobs and the market is still rallied Even though that's usually bad news for inflation if the labor market is not cooling down That means inflation might not cool down as well, but we still rallied So anything can happen with these data sets. It can literally do the opposite So you have to be careful and then for seasonality this week season acts was actually kind enough to add us back If you're a free user, you can use their instruments probably just for a short period And then they'll lock it again trying to get you to buy a subscription I like to use their free option just because I don't really use Seasonality as a strategy so much but more so as a broad market view So for this week, we are looking at october 9th to the 13th So it's going to be the 9th to friday the 13th this week. That's our trading week You can see we actually average a plus point six one percent return. So it's positive And this is when the markets start to historically bottom out a little bit We started seeing that rally up into november and this is where the markets start to Finish out the year and lots of times we'll see some positivity But we are in different market conditions now. It's always a hit or miss with seasonality Look at it on the broad trend view rather than on a day to day basis If you keep in mind that october is bullish, you might be a little bit more inclined to buy the dips In october and maybe just be more careful on shorts But that doesn't mean you know day trade off seasonality It doesn't mean just make a decision based off seasonality You just keep it in the back of your head because markets do generally follow it And we saw that in september looking pretty bullish overall for seasonality Definitely keep that in mind. We do average a positive return in this period And this is 25 years worth of data and for specific dates here We'll look at the almanac so october 9th monday. It is columbus days. So the bond market is closed You won't see any official bond pricing or anything with yields But you will see instruments such as the tlt Maybe the bond futures as well still pricing in something They're going to try to price in what's going to happen on tuesday when it reopens when the actual bond market reopens So you'll you'll still see bond instruments trade and that could have an effect on the market Just because we've been so sensitive to yields and bonds But overall the actual bond market is closed on monday and then dow we're at 47.6 S&P at 42.9 nasdaq at 52.4 So lower probabilities for the chance of the market rising on this day more like neutral I wouldn't say it's bearish, but it's not very bullish either nasdaq with the highest at 52.4 And this is for the chance of the market rising And it's based off of probably anywhere from 50 to 100 years worth of data And they pretty much just put probabilities into specific dates for the dow the s&p and the nasdaq tuesday october 10th dow lost 1874 points 18.2 on the week ending 10 10 2008. So that's during the financial crisis Worst dow week in the history of wall street. So that's just a little historical fact tuesday the probabilities are not so bad Dow at 57.1 s&p at 57.1 nasdaq at 57.1 as well So really not bad at all pretty neutral probabilities Then wednesday another neutral day nothing specific Dow s&p nasdaq all in the 50s with nasdaq at 57.1 thursday october 2011 Second dow month to gain 1000 points You can see probabilities are all over the place dow at 38.1 a little bit lower s&p at 47.6 nasdaq at 57.1 and once again these are Probabilities for the market rising and friday historically bullish day It was bullish enough for them to give it and bull icon dow at 61.9 s&p at 61.9 nasdaq at 66.7 So pretty good for friday the 13th Maybe won't get bad luck after all and now we'll go ahead and get into our individual tickers this week I do have four on watch. There's a lot of good stuff after friday's close There's a lot of a lot of bullish bars lots of things getting over downtrend structures And it's just looking pretty good to start off Maybe a rally over the next few weeks, but we'll have to see this first one here We're looking at tsm. This is taiwan semi-conductors. You can see we had a test one test two test three test four test five Downtrend here. So really nice downtrend, but now we're popping out of that You can see it hit this 89 50 structure low, which comes from over here in august We do need to get over that if you want to see more upsides You want to see it getting over that make a base off it head up into supply in the upper 90s And usually after a breakout like this, it's not just going to shoot up straight away every single time Sometimes it will but a lot of times you'll see a little pullback after after the initial break It'll kind of try to back test that way Institutions and large money they can re-enter and then they'll run it up after that for confirmation If you want to wait for it to get over 89 50s and close over that that's a good confirmation for it to start going higher Looks like there's a little peak right here at 92 93 watch this level if it gets over 89 50 That probably be your price target on the short term. So tsm I'm looking at calls if you want set an alert at 89 50 Is right click hit add alert you can call a breakout and that's your alert So that way if it starts getting over 89 50 watch that level it could shoot up right there And this downtrend breakout looks pretty good. It looks similar to amd AMD just had a too big of a green day for me on friday. It's up almost 5% So I feel like this is giving a little bit more room to enter. It's only closed up 2.6 percent Maybe a little bit better of an entry. It's not too overextended on the short term time frames tsm Looking at calls. So this is the fxi. This is the iShares china large cap etf You can see it had really strong support at 25 50. I really like that bounce off of that Obviously a better entry would have been down here and then you could play up to the downtrend line But there's still another setup regardless that it already bounced off this We want to see it breaking out of the downtrend That's why I right clicked the downtrend line and I added an alert So I already named it we can just call it breakout as well hit save So that way once it starts getting outside of this we can start looking for upside on this And when it comes to trading chinese names, you're obviously more so banking on the gap ups Because a lot of times it's going to move off of gap ups or downs Just because it has a different trading hours than the us So you'll see larger gaps in asian markets and really anything china related You'll see those big gap ups and downs So i'm really liking this to the upside obviously you just got to wait for it to break out first price targets It looks like there's a little bit of resistance here at 27 30s. There's a little rejection right here at 26 77 So watch those two overall if it can get up to 28 45 at this week high That would be pretty nice probably take a little bit though. I'm not expecting that to hit Just instantly it'd probably take a couple weeks. Sometimes it takes less Especially if it breaks out of that downtrend line, you never know what to expect it could go up pretty quick So but first watch the 27 or the 26 77 and the 27 39 Those are your two nearby resistance points and wait for the downtrend break because if this just rejects It could go back down to 25s. So you just want to wait for that So fxi is more of a patient play you want to wait for it to break out give you a signal Then you can enter maybe by you know at least 30 days of expiration Take a swing trade give us some time to move around gap up gap down because you see how it moves I mean, it's a little bit choppy lately lots of back and forth But if you can get that confirmed downtrend breakout, it'll be looking good for upside So fxi looking at calls. All right next we're going into q-com So I actually had a pretty good alert on this one in september towards the beginning of september I believe we bought this area right here I think we bought this big red candle and then it needed one more day to kind of Consolidate pull down and made a big gap up almost four percent and that's the day I took profit actually ran higher So I could have made way more on that But I'm looking at this again just because it's been so tight and consolidating It looks like it's finally trying to break out of this So you got to test one test two test three Multiple tests over here and now it's starting to poke out of that So overall, I feel like it could get up to this little 115 area at supply. That's the max I could see so you got about five points to the upside It's a pretty good move if it can do that, but it looks pretty good I mean if it can stay outside of this downtrend line And not go back within it if it starts going back within it You could probably invalidate the thesis on the short term But overall as long as the structures are holding really at 107 and 105 the supports are still holding So it could still go up, but I'm more so looking at this downtrend breakout So I want to see follow through on that if it starts going back within like I said I'll probably not really pay attention to it as much anymore and wait for it to get back outside of that again So q-com looking good for upside looking for a move up to 115 probably over Anywhere from a couple days to a couple weeks. I can't really put a timeline on the market But I'm looking at calls on this looking for upside so q-com be patient Make sure it stays outside downtrend and we can look at calls. All right And last but not least for our individual tickers. We're looking at kr. This is kroger It's had a really nice support just waiting for my technicals to load here So I'll actually zoom out to the one week because I wanted to show you this Well, we'll go to the one month because you can see it a little bit better this little 42 75 right here It's from 2015. It's actually been strong support all year and even in 2022 in late 2022 It's been bouncing off that so I'm looking at you know a short term bounce off of this area again As long as we're holding over it. I feel good about it You know curling back up and trying to get back up to this little structure right here That's probably going to be like 50 or so if they can get back up to this Top area that'd be a nice little shoot up. I always say that could take a little bit This is the one month time frame. This is the one week. So it could take time It's not just going to get up there in a week. None of these, you know went up to there in a week It took multiple weeks sometimes even you know multiple months and then obviously your risk off would just be under 42 75 You could probably even mark this peak low right here at 41 82 Comes from right here. Keep it simple go down to the one day You can see we actually dipped into the 2015 peak I just showed you on the one month time frame at 42 75 It actually bounced off of that on friday So a really nice run up off that kind of sold off into the close One thing you do want to see on kr here. You want to see it getting over 43 50s and I'll show you why here. So 43 50s is actually a structured low point from right here This is from june 23 needs to get back over that. That's where it kind of rejected and then closed back under So we want to see it getting over that and I can probably shoot up to this little area right here at you know 45 flat or so So we want to see it getting over that 43 50 closing over that making a base off of that And as long as it reclaims back over that we could see a spring upward Obviously a lot of these retail names like cost wmt walmart target They all got smashed on friday for some reason not exactly sure what the news was Maybe there's a big earnings on one of them and they didn't do so well So it just affected the whole sector But either way they got smashed and they kind of bought back up A lot of people bought the div and there's a big rally at the bottom because the whole market rallied on friday So it was just a huge broad market rally on friday despite these Retail names dumping the market still went back up and a lot of the value names did recover a little bit off the bottom So I really like this wick That's a good sign that there's buying pressure But like I said needs to get over the 43 50s reclaim over that and then it could shoot back up There's obviously a lot of moving average Resistance as well. You can see the green and the yellow is the 9 and 21 It's been rejecting off that pretty good. So if it did start shooting back up You'd want to look for resistance at that area as well And you definitely want to see it start getting back Over that it needs to start closing over the 9 and 21 Maybe we even see the 9 crossing back over the 21 if you want to see it get back up to the 200 EMA Which is the major resistance point So kind of keep in mind that this is still down trending But you're looking at major support and then once it rebalances and comes back up into the moving averages Lots of times you want to expect resistance And I explained that in the last options trading ideas video that I dropped last week So maybe go back and watch that and I showed just examples on the lower time frames as well Does the same thing if you're buying lower while it's trending under the 9 and 21 And it bounces back up when it comes back up It'll try to act as resistance there Make a lower high and then you know get tagged back down again So you do want to watch those moving averages on whatever time frame you're doing So kr here looking at cause needed over 43 50s And it could be looking good for a move up into the moving averages or at least 45 flat All right, and on to the index is my favorite part. So last week on the spx We've been looking for a reclaim over the 4 3 3 5 lows the structure lows I mentioned it really needs to get over that for any meaningful upside or reversal Really anything below that is just potential resistance and we showed why last week Look at this rejection of 4 3 3 5 this candle brought us down last week all the way into the 4 200s And it even broke our trend line. So you got a test one test two Test three almost test four trend line right here Broke under it multiple times, but it actually faked out because Friday We reclaimed back over that and you can see we closed up here So we're back in line with the trend line Now at a drop based drop supply zone You can see this base candle right here. This is our drop based drop supply You can even mark it. So this is just pretty much on lines with 4 3 3 5 and the high Of this supply zone is pretty much the same area. So we need to see SPX or the spy getting over that making a base filling up this sale and balance There's a gap right here as well This is what we've been eyeing the past couple weeks need to see it getting up there as well Hopefully fill that that'd be great for bowls. So the 4 3 3 5 just keep it in focus Definitely maybe even add an alert if you want there once it starts getting over that and closing over that There's a lot of sale and balance to fill at least like almost 100 points or the sale and balance that we could fill up over 4 3 3 5 so that'd be a huge move If we start entering this area right here and we need to get over the structure loads to do that So that's for the bowls right now though We are not over that so you do have to keep in mind of this supply Which can act as resistance just on the short term obviously if they're a big bullish candle like this I wouldn't expect it just to fill back down the whole thing I mean, obviously we've seen that a couple of times such as like a bar like this Literally filled up the whole thing plus more to the downside We're seeing it, you know a couple times where we rallied really hard to the upside and then just gave it all back So just don't expect it to one day, you know, it's pretty rare You know, usually markets like to make kind of like a base and stall out before trying to go lower So just look for short term resistance in this area Just for the time being and then obviously if that ends up not playing out and there's no resistance And we start getting over the 4 3 3 5 you can switch your bias But right now we are inside supply. We're right at supply So you do want to be mindful of that and maybe just wait for the 4 3 3 5 get taken out to the upside for rejection signals You're definitely going to want to wait for some type of one day candle close showing some type of red bar reacting to supply and that could have continuation the next day That's your best bet or you just you know, take the gamble You know when it's inside supply take some puts for a day trade maybe scale up it down And you can make some money But if you are a patient trader and you'd rather wait for confirmation right now the best thing The trend is intact. I showed you that so you got our uptrend line is back in order So if we follow this uptrend the 4 3 3 5 and the move over that is definitely going to be the trade So we want to see that I definitely want to trade that So I'm hoping we can eventually get over that And I wouldn't blame you if you don't want to touch this area for shorts Just because of the uptrend line still holding most importantly wait for 4 3 3 5 to get taken out That'd be a great trade Then we could fill that gap this whole sell imbalance and everything will be looking pretty good The only thing I didn't like about this rally here on Friday is that bonds did not participate The TLT actually gapped on pretty heavily, but then it filled almost all the way But we still closed down negative 1.2% on the TLT So the yields closed very high and the bonds closed lower despite this equity rally The bonds were not agreeing with the data that came out on Friday, which is understandable because it was a hot print We added a lot of jobs. It's not good for inflation So be careful of that careful the bond market and also be careful of this supply If you really want to wait wait for it to get over 4 3 3 5 like I said, that'd be a good trade That'd be a good structure low reclaim and we'd be looking pretty gravy right now a good thing We did start closing over the nine EMA on the one day time frame. This is the green So this is your five, which is the orange. This is your nine. It's the green yellow is the 21 So if it does go a little bit higher the 21 EMA meets right with the 4 3 3 5 So we'll need to get over the 21 EMA and the 4 3 3 5 that's going to be up here So if you want to wait for that wait for that otherwise, you know, just be cautious at this area You got supply and the 21 not too far up ahead. So just be careful Maybe keep a bold bias for the seasonality, but at the same time, you know, just be patient Wait for the 4 3 3 5 to get taken out. All right. Next we're going into the QQQ So this one was my favorite actually the reason for that was because we didn't break the structure Lows yet. You can see this is our clothes on Friday last Friday. So this is when we made the video I mentioned 354 71 was your structure low and you could look for dip buys at that area. I'm sorry. This was actually Friday's clothes right here So this was our most recent Friday clothes. It's basically at the same spot from two Fridays ago So I got them a little mixed up. They almost look the same. It's basically the same clothes I mentioned that we could see a little dip Maybe into 354 70s and the reason for that is because we were looking at the 9 and 21 cloud Last week and you can see we actually found resistance At the 9 and 21 area right here and it pulled down on Tuesday into 354 71 And this is the area I mentioned you wanted to be looking for dip buys on and it just worked amazingly I mean, you could have traded this three days in a row 354 70s Worked out so good. So here was Tuesday a nice little bounce off of that once we reclaimed over it on Wednesday Nice rally came back down into the same area right here Just at the 355 so close enough for me Honestly to be looking for some type of bounce and then another one on Friday, which is crazy This is the craziest one and this squeezed a lot of shorts But this structure low area was just perfect to trade off of and that's why we kept it in focus And as well mentioned that the qqq looked the best out of everybody because this was Friday's close This is the structure lows. We didn't close under structure lows at all. We were still over it Unlike spx, which I showed you last week was closed under the structure lows It's still under the structure lows now at 4 3 3 5 We're not over that 4 3 3 5 yet. So spx is still under structure lows qqq was not So qqq had great strength and this 354 71 was money and it worked on Tuesday really well And then we have multiple bounces from the general area three days after that We dipped into the same spot and bounced from the same spot basically so worked really good This week a little bit different. We have a huge bullish close from Friday So we have to keep that in mind. We do have a little resistance at 362 95 You probably just round that up to 363 that comes from right here We broke over that so that's pretty much your level of focus right now We need to see that 363 holding as a back test area and if it doesn't back test We just want to see it staying over it regardless if it back tests or if it just shoots straight up here We want it staying over 363 this little breakout point right here. It falls back under 363 It's probably just going to come back down to structure lows at 354 71 So your range is pretty much 362 95 down to 354 71 Those are your two major points right there right now If we can stay over the 363 or the 362 95 whatever you want to call it I would imagine we can get up to supply right here. This is a drop base drop zone So this is a very nice drop base drop zone. You see drop base drop. This is a big sale imbalance This is a nice consolidation So something happened in this area to lead to this big sale imbalance and I feel like for qqq This is probably going to fill back up to the upside That's usually what happens and then once we get up to supply you can look for resistance in that area So I just look for resistance here But qqq as long as we stay over that 363, which is our resistance point right here Sorry, the magnets kind of screwed that up, but these little areas right here. That's our resistance We need to stay over that. That's also a breakout point and a back test area So if it does pull into the 363 as well Look for dip buys on that area and it'll probably try to shoot back up another good thing about qqq It actually closed over the one day 21 EMA Unlike spx was just still below the 21 EMA qqq actually closed over it So you can see this is the yellow 21 EMA We closed over that so likely I wouldn't imagine it's just going to shoot straight up Usually after a break over the 21 you see a similar pattern with really anything if it breaks over a resistance point It'll pull back into it Hold that 21 EMA as a base or hold that resistance as a base make support off it and then it'll go higher Sometimes you can see it go straight up too as well But most importantly just watch 363 and the one day 21 EMA on your one day charts Make sure that's holding make sure we're closing over it and then we can head up into supply right here And like I said if it fails and starts going back under, you know, 363 or the 362 95 starts going back under that You know, you can look for some downside there But right now qqq looking pretty bullish this close on friday was just insane This whole trading day was insane. I think I got a lot of good day trades on spotting qqq on friday I think we went like four for five. All right next we're going into IWM This is our last equity ETF that we go over so last week we were focused on this demand I had a drawn right here. I actually got rid of it because we started closing under it So this little area was our demand. I mentioned you can keep looking for dip buys of this area until it broke under Obviously, it didn't work after monday monday. We started closing inside of it. Tuesday We actually closed under it and once we closed under it That's when we headed down into the 168 or the 169 which is this peak low that we've been looking at I think we looked at it a couple weeks ago. I think I mentioned this is pretty much the max structure lows if it did want to play out this head and shoulders This is probably the max price target. I could see over time I didn't think it would get down there, you know within you know a couple weeks though I thought it would maybe take a little bit longer, but it didn't so finally hit that We actually bought calls off of this 169 area I think it was on I think it was on wednesday And we sold the next day for 17 percent could have made way more because friday this thing just blasted off But either way we played that structure lows pretty good I wish I would have made a little bit more maybe held some runners made a little bit more than 17 percent But either way it was a nice little trade off the structure lows And I really had no drawdown on this trade at all I think as soon as I entered towards the close IWM actually ran up and then We pretty much just stayed solid the next day And I was able to Sell for a profit, but it kept projecting at this area and I didn't like that I could even show you real quick. So it kept making resistance at this area right here I really didn't like this and I think we sold right here on thursday Just right at this general area because you got one rejection two rejections Three and then the next day is when we broke over it I think I was looking for a reentry over 172 and I missed it You can see it happened actually in two 15 minute candles So you had to be really quick for the 172 break obviously on the higher time frames It still looks good for upside if you can be patient and wait for the retrace There's a lot of room to retrace on this And there's really no supply on this until So this is a drop based drop supply. You could probably even call it a rally based drop There's only a short rally right here though, but this drop was really big So if it does indeed get up to this area, I would definitely look for resistance there If we added the moving averages are probably still trending under all of them Yeah, you could see the five the nine and then 21 here. We're still under the nine So it's been acting as pretty strong resistance. You got rejections right here You got a rejection right here and we have no idea what's going to do here Probably needs to get over 175 or 174 50 or so in order to stop, you know, rejecting off of this EMA So we need to see that for the IWM, but otherwise this is right at structure loads Looks pretty good for a dip buy. I definitely still like it If you buy November expiration give you lots of time to deal with drawdown risk Maybe it'll chop around a little bit more before trying to bounce But that'll just give you a lot of time to deal with anything Obviously, I don't like any shorts unless it gets back up into supply. You look for resistance at that area It's going to be at about 176 Or if it starts breaking under structure loads at 167 46 I could look for a short under that as well or look for, you know, velocity selling to pick up Right now you can see general general areas holding pretty good pretty good reaction off of the structure loads And I like that for a long. So that's for IWM looking good for a bounce still maximum I could see 176 at supply and then obviously I wouldn't feel bearish until I got up to that or it starts breaking under 167 46 So just keep it simple structure loads supply focus on those. All right, next we're going to the VIX So last week we actually called this pretty good because we were focused on this Friday close I mentioned because it closed back over 17 with this bar right here. This is the close at 1750 I didn't feel good about it going lower. I actually expected it to get up to 1880s And it did that plus more so it did the 1880s move within two days It did it on Tuesday plus more and then actually ran up into the forbidden 20s So I mentioned probably in previous videos this 20 81 and this 21 33 was your Max peaks probably in the 20s and we probably needed to start closing over those And you know for fear to really pick up it wasn't able to do that. So it actually cleared the 1880s So VIX went higher than I thought I thought of a top out at about 1880s or just a general area It went higher than that But either way it's pretty cool to see how it literally rejected right at the peak of 20 81 Which is this peak right here from May 23 and then once it starts closing back under 1880s That pretty much just takes you straight down to 17 And you can see you got a close here on Wednesday under 1880s and a close here on Thursday under 1880s Went briefly back over it on Friday probably due to the data But then we had VIX Crush Friday got back under 1880s and went straight down to 17 Which is this peak right here And this is also just a general support area and this 17 area Is the reason why I expected it to go higher just because of the close right here specifically at 1750 on Friday So we do need to see it getting under 17s this week for a more upside I do like the follow through here. This is obviously a really good Close for the bulls if you're bullish on the stocks You want to see big candles like this big VIX crushes like this in order to you know, see the market go higher We need volatility to come down a little bit Maybe stabilize a little bit because it's been a little bit whipsaw as you can tell So the close under 17 is the next one we're looking for you can see it try to do that last week Like I said on Friday, but then it came all the way back up here and close here So we need to see a red bar closing under 17s Keep it simple if it can do that we can expect it to go back down to 1550s 1550s comes from the structure low right here. It acted as resistance right here acted as resistance right here So you got three different points of 1550s Even got general area support of 1550s right here as well So the 1550s big level if we can get under 17s and close under that We could just see it skip straight down to 1550s and that'd just be a straight volatility crush We would have our bullish october not sure how long it would last It kind of just got to take it one day at a time one close at a time And adjust on a daily basis because this market's insane So neither close under 17 obviously if 17 starts holding as support and we start closing Over it with some type of bullish candles similar to what we saw on Friday like this And we start seeing it curling back up. It's just going to go back to 1880s in my opinion and fill up this little You know fill up these red candles, which it does easily So red candles eventually do get filled back up if they are you know straight down enough You'll see that imbalance get filled right back up and you see it on stocks as well too So just pay attention to that when the big star is doing more stuff like this. It's a little bit harder A little bit tougher. This is when volatility contracts market feels a little bit slow goes into consolidation Sometimes we even see meltups when it just keeps doing this because it's not moving enough So this is good for trading. This is more good for swing trading And if you want to see volatility contract, you want to see a little bit more stability in the market If you want to see a bullish market right now, we need that close under 17 Keep it simple if it starts closing under 17 We can go down to 1550s if it starts holding a support like I said at 17s It's probably just going to go straight back up to 1880s So want to see that close under that for the bullish bias 1708 17 flat need to close under that All right, last but not least going into the dxy or the us dollar So last week we actually added this 107 19 level and this 107 99 And I think we added this 109 50s as well We did react to one of them I wasn't expecting it to get up to 107 20 or I wasn't expecting it to break over these at least Which luckily it didn't because if we started breaking over 107 20s or the 108 It would have been bad. Uh, we actually rejected that pretty hard on tuesday So the dollar was already selling and looking pretty good for a rally once the dollar starts cooling down People start to chill out a little bit and you can see the markets go up We actually didn't really get a huge rally or anything until friday and the dxy only closed down, you know 0.22% very crazy day on friday yields were still skyrocketed dollar was down just a little bit But you would think after a big green day like that with equities You would see the dollar down way more and you see yields down as well But we didn't see that so you could say that you know starting after this rejection That's kind of giving a little hint that we would rally because the dollar is finally cooling down But we really didn't see that huge impulsive move until Friday so this week for the dxy we're actually back down to 105 80s And we're actually directly at the trend line now. So we need to see this breaking I've probably mentioned this a bunch of times we need to close under this area Which is a back test level right here as well and that's also going to meet with the trend line So we need to close under 105 80s if we close under 105 80s that's going to Confirm the trend line break that's going to confirm the structure break and we are back within big resistance If we start closing under 105 88 over here that I'm circling with my mouse So we start getting back under that area It's probably just going to shoot back down to 104 70s Which is this peak right here and it's also a back test area from right over here So keep it simple need the trend line break need the 105 88 break In order to go lower and then probably give the market an excuse to rally But for right now you can see sunday the dxy is trading It's actually up a little bit likely due to the overseas conflict with israel and palestine I'll have to take a look at the futures. I haven't even looked at them I think I started recording this before they open so I'll have to take a look but right now Still holding structure still holding trend line. So you kind of have to assume Until it breaks this could just act as support could act as a trend And it'll just keep marching higher probably head back up into the 107s So we need to see that break under for the bowls if you want to see stocks go up You want to see the market stabilize a little bit you want to see Everything a little bit more chill. We need the dollar under 105 88 and under the down or the up trend line So keep it simple. Otherwise, this could just you know, keep going higher So if you want to wait for that signal wait for the vix to get under 17 and close under it And also wait for the dxy to get in our 105 80s That's a perfect recipe for the market to rally even harder another thing Like I said, we need to see spx over 4 3 3 5 if it gets over 4 3 3 5 and closes over it Maybe multiple days in a row. Maybe we get one big close over it. That's a great sign We'd probably see a broad market rally as well. So hopefully we can see more than just tech You know getting over at structure lows, which we saw hold very strongly qqq never broke under structure lows Intensely or anything like that just dipped under it just a little bit and then we rallied right off of it And that was that that 354 70s level that we've been focused on the past couple weeks and last week as well So that's the video guys. Hope you guys enjoyed make sure you like comment and subscribe to our xtrees youtube channel I'm gonna go ahead and get this chopped up edited and sent out. I love you guys and i'm out