 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. I'm all one. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody is healthy. If you're like me, once in a while, I like doing my chart work on Friday afternoons, despite any long trading week. If I have zero bars, it's a whole different story, my mentally. But sometimes when I do have energy, I like to knock out my chart work because, again, you're still in the frame of mind. Everything's still fresh in your head. So that's not abnormal. I found myself yesterday around, I think it was around 5, 6 o'clock, and I think it was 6.30, that I turned on my computer and started looking at charts for pure entertainment. Literally, it's at the point right now that I've watched everything on Netflix. There's really nothing on regular TV anymore. Yesterday's weather was kind of crappy more or less days. Weather's more, it's raining outside. So I found myself looking at charts after a full week of trading for the point of entertaining myself. Yep, that's where we are. So got to make the best of it, guys. And if you're like me, you find yourself needing a haircut very, very badly. Maybe you let yourself go a little bit, add an extra couple of pounds. You haven't shaven as much as you should. But you know what? At the end of the day, let this be our worst problem. Let this be our worst case scenario. It's better than an alternative of the people who were irresponsible, old spring breakers, and everybody who, unfortunately, right now is in a much worse shape than us fighting this really, really nasty virus. So you always have to remember, things could be worse. Boredom will not kill you. Being unshaven is not going to kill you. Needing a haircut is not going to kill you. What is going to kill you if you continue to act irresponsibly, not social distancing, thinking that you're immune to this horrific, horrific virus and the worst case scenario that's happened. And unfortunately, I hate to report this, but it's just true. If you're like me, especially if you live in a lot of big metropolitan cities, I know a lot of people. I already know three people, excuse me, two people who died, one's in really, really bad condition. I know about six or seven people who do have, and these are friends of mine that I grew up with. Childhood friends, some of them I haven't spoken to in years. But again, you log on to Facebook and you see this, and you're like, wow, this is incredibly depressing. So I try not to watch the news on the weekends. So this weekend, I have no interest in watching the news. But again, mentally, we have to stay sharp. So if our worst case scenario, we get a little bit of a belly, we need a haircut, right? Again, it's much better than the alternative. So let's talk about the trading aspect of this week. Again, it's staggering what you think about where we were just two and a half weeks ago, okay? We were at the bottom, the S&P, we traded all the way down to 2191, which was absolutely amazing to see where it dropped just from a month and a half ago, from nearly almost 3,400. And when you looked at the projections that they were talking about, just for debts. I mean, the cases are staggering. Again, just in New Jersey, I'm in New Jersey, you still see like three, 4,000 new cases a day. It's insane. But if you think where the initial projections were going to be, if you told me a month ago that we were gonna be above the 50-day moving average on the S&P 500, that unemployment, and again, if you look at the jobless claims, you're talking about another 5 million people filed for unemployment. That's a ridiculous staggering number of 22 people. That's 22 million people claiming unemployment in a month, just a month. And if you told me the debt toll was gonna be X, if I told you a month later, we were gonna be up 6% on the NASDAQ, 3% on the S&P and 2% on the Dow, reclaiming major, major supply zones, you would never believe me. But that's kind of where we are. And if you've been watching this broadcast just for the last two weeks, I kind of turned off my humanity. Number one, I got numb to all the news. I'm kind of living it, it's starting to make sense. Everything is just part of life, like staying at home is like the new normal to me, bored, absolutely, but the new normal. But again, if you told me that this was gonna happen and the market was gonna really, really start this massive, at least on the surface, V-shape recovery, nobody would ever think this is logical, but that's kind of where we are. And two weeks ago, like I said, I kind of turned off my humanity and I kind of just stopped thinking, just stopped thinking, basically just saying, hey, let the trend, let the ranges, let the sentiment, tell me, tell me what's gonna happen next. Again, I'm an idiot, I'm the king of the idiots. There's no way I could figure out, I could figure out what this market wants to do next. And this is the first time that I can say in my career. And I think I could speak to a lot of, I think I could speak for a lot of traders. I think this is the first time in our career, especially in the last month or so. I've been quarantined now for over like two and a half months now. But especially for the last month, this is the first time, and I speak to a lot of traders and they kind of echo the same sentiment, that this is the first time in our career that we're not thinking of the brand new car, that we're not thinking of the watch or the luxury vacation, okay? There's nothing that I'm sitting at home saying, wow, this is what I really need. So there is no motivation. The only motivation right now for me is literally staying alive and hopefully my food order that I placed, my weekly food order that I placed with different supermarkets is gonna come 100% of what I ordered. That's my motivation right now. Hopefully that my family has enough food from week to week to kind of make this through. So I think this is the first time in our lives that we're actually focused on the process. If you actually talk to a lot of traders, especially traders who've been doing this seven, 10, 12, 15 years plus, they're probably gonna have better results because they're focused on their tasks. They're not focused. Their mind is not wandering, planning a trip to Disney World, although that's great and you need a release and God, I know, as I know, I need a vacation more than anybody or just as much as anybody. But we're really focused on our process. We're really laser focused on a day to day instead of having our mind wind off and thinking about other things. It's almost like a young kid breaking, tearing apart a package, a brand new gift of Madden football and all the kid does is play Madden football, nine hours a day, unhealthy, no doubt, your brain's gonna fry. But all they're trying to do is get better and get better and get better and that's kind of where we are right now. Traders are forced to sit down, take this very, very seriously. Unfortunately, a lot of people are home not because they wanted, because again, their day-to-day job will not let them earn a living. So they've been home, they've been focused. They've been taking a lot more steps to making this business work. And I've always said this and again, unfortunately not everybody can be a full-time trader and have this whatever the case may be. But I said the more times that you can really put in that work and really focus on the task at hand and get that screen time, that magical screen time is crucial to any trader's development, the more chances you can do this over and over and over again then everything starts to slow down. It's like that rookie quarterback, that hotshot rookie quarterback coming into his first camp and the speed of the game is very, very aggressive. You see these all-pro linebackers flying at you and you're like, oh my God, how is this the same game I played in college with? This is exactly what the same, this is exactly applies to that part-time trader who has an active trading account that had a job is now they're focusing because this is their prime objective. There's nothing else going on in their lives. And ironically, the more people I speak to, the people who were forced to sit home and now fully trade every single day, they're actually seeing better results because they're getting that additional screen time and there's nothing that's taking away their concentration. So in a weird way, all this, all this just to kind of put it in the spectrum of trading is almost forced traders to become better, to become smarter, to become more diligent, to become better at doing their research. And again, people realize that there is no, there is no plan B right now. This is it, either this or open up an online casino account. So they're really taking what they know and things are, people are taking this very, very seriously and a lot of people are getting much better results than they had in the past because this is literally the only game in town. So let's talk about the take very aggressive action this week, amazing action. If you trade beta, what else can you ask for? You've had a 6% rise in the NASDAQ, huge moves. The Qs reclaimed huge levels. That 12, 75, 213 level I've been kind of screaming about last week that we needed to reclaim. You had the most majestic moves in Tesla and Amazon in Netflix, anything to do, anything to do with the whole stay at home movement, okay, did very, very well. The Zoom, right, the conferencing of Zoom, Netflix, the pure play, everybody staying at home, all this at the third. So you had this huge, huge run, majestic ranges and there's really not much else that if you're an intraday trader, a few trade channels, it's very hard to ask for anything else. And when you look at where we are right now, we're just kicking off earning season and the first beta name that's gonna come out with earnings is on Netflix on Tuesday. And for the following week, that's when you have your Amazon, your Google, your Facebook, your Tesla's of the world. But what I like what I'm seeing, and if you've been kind of watching the last several videos, we're taking all the bad information that we're getting from corporate America and they're using it for their advantage to kind of negate that news and push these stocks higher. So for example, if you look at the banks and the banks kicked off earnings week, when you look at the banks, for example, they all came out with bad numbers, okay? All their profits got hit, but everybody was warned and that was the whole point of companies coming out a month ago, two months ago, turning around and say, hey, look, look, look, there is no expectation. Our business, blame it on Corona, right? Our business, it's stalling out, blame it on COVID-19, right? It's not us, it's the world we live in. We started seeing more and more companies do that. So when you see a company like J.P. Morgan come out with earnings and his Citibank come out with earnings and a Goldman Sachs come out with earnings and the earnings are not there, well, we were warned, right? We were warned. So the expectations, our earnings are like really down here. So next week, when you start getting earnings, for example, on Netflix, and again, Netflix is going to benefit. Again, I don't know if the stock price is going to react to their actual earnings because they already had a move just in the last month or so from 290 to 450. So again, you could turn around and make a case while it's already baked into the stock. Maybe it is, okay, we don't know. Again, we're not that smart. But again, for all the companies who came out like Apple that came out a month and a half ago, oh, sales on iPhones are gonna be affected by COVID-19. Again, everybody's saying the same thing. So the expectations for all these companies are right down there, okay, all down. Nobody has any expectations for anything. And I said this on Thursday's video. I basically said, unless the company turns around and says, listen, we're going out of business, there's a very, very good chance no matter what they report, the market is going to appreciate the fact that they're still there. They're still viable. The business is still slowly but surely going forward. And they're going to give these stocks, especially these high tech beta high flyers, the benefit of the doubt. So going into this week, and again, Netflix kicks off, I think IBM is on Monday as well. The meat potatoes of beta is gonna come the following week. But keep an early eye out, okay? Keep an early eye out to see how IBM reacts, how Netflix reacts. So if you start seeing them kind of miss their numbers or kind of guide in line and the market embraces that, okay, because IBM never, I don't remember the last time IBM hit their quarter. If you look at their weekly charts, it's a disaster. Like I just don't literally remember the last time. These are all quarters, down, down, down, down, right? So if you start seeing IBM come out with a bad quarter, and the market kind of negates it and says, okay, we'll give you the benefit of the doubt, we'll give you a mulligan, that's probably going to be a very, very big clue of what's gonna happen in generally in the up and coming earning season. And again, if the market starts negating bad news and gives all these stocks a pass, at least for one quarter, then remember that this whole channel we talked about, right? Ever since we reclaimed the 212, 75, 213 level on the Qs, then we have a whole channel that's moving up all the way to the 225, 228 area. So the market is liking the action. I know a lot of traders, especially new traders, are still fighting it. How can this happen? We have 20 million people unemployed. How can this happen? We have ridiculous amounts of debts. How can this happen? Nobody has any money. How can this happen? How can this happen? Just remember, again, from ladder videos, nothing needs to make sense, okay? Stop thinking, stop overthinking. The charts are your best friend. Your individual process is going to be your best friend. Forget about what CNBC is saying. Forget about what your best friend is saying or anybody else is giving you an opinion. We don't know anything. Again, remember, I've been echoing the statement for a long, long time. You know, when you're a brand new trader, one, two, three years in, you feel like you need to prove something, okay? By year 20, man, you know, you're like, who cares? Okay, I've lost all, you know, I've lost all feelings in this business a long time ago. By year one, two, three, you're still trying to prove that you belong, that you're smart, that you're intelligent, that you have a voice. And then once you hit like year four, you realize that everything you thought the first three years meant absolutely nothing. They were all idiots, I'm the biggest idiot, but we are all idiots. Guys, let the market tell you what's gonna happen next. Don't fight the tape, okay? Nothing needs to happen, especially on your timeline. If you love Tesla short, it might not be a short in your lifetime. If you like Tesla long, maybe those go back to 300, but again, traded based on technical analysis and not what you think is going to happen next. So a very aggressive week, really, really aggressive week. If you've been watching this video for the last, you know, just even the last week, it's been phenomenal. It's been really, really phenomenal trading. Beta in a normal market is great. The average share range is in a normal tape is monsters. That's why we trade a Tesla on a normal tape, right? And again, the word normal is very subjective. You know, it has a $15, $17 range. I mean, you're looking at that last week. I think the average share range somebody told me on Tesla for the last two weeks was $54 a day, right? So this is beta on steroids. This is what we do on steroids. So yeah, this is gonna be a good market. You know, it's gonna be a very, very good market as long as you don't cheat. We'll get to that in a second. Friday turned out to be a very, very aggressive day, especially in the morning. And again, I've said this, no matter what the market does, you have to have a voice, you have to have a voice, you have to have an opinion, and based on your process, you have to wait for everything to play out. So if you guys remember Thursday night, you know, Trump spoke around 5.30, six o'clock, and he started to talk about how slowly, or at least the preliminary plan to kind of start opening up business. I forgot what the phrase was, open America up again. Okay, so I don't know what the phrase was, but again, as I tell anybody who listens to me, anybody, I don't care what they tell me, it's safe to go outside. You first, right? You first, let me know what happens. I'm good for a while. That's just me, I'm a little paranoid. Safe and sorry, right? So, you know, we already knew the market was gapping up pretty big, and I noted this pre-market, I said with Trump's speech last night, we had this big 700 point gap, I said the downside ranges are, excuse me, the ranges of value are to the downside, especially for any stock that had a big, big run during the whole stay at home movement. So look at the companies that benefit it, right? We had Amazon who benefit, Netflix who benefited, Roku who benefited, Zoom that benefited, Peloton. Again, I know it's crazy to say I have a Peloton bike, I used it five times in the last two years, that's five times too many, just because the seat, it's not built for men, it's too small. Anyway, it's a whole different story. But I had a very specific game playing going into the morning, those stocks already started selling off pre-market, so I kind of knew, especially after the big run-up, that was gonna be the value, and once those opening ranges got confirmed, it was a phenomenal move, absolutely phenomenal move. So let's talk about it. Apple 286, if it builds below can flush, they got downgraded. Here was Apple, just destroyed, right? Here was Apple, absolutely destroyed. Here was the 286, right? Here was the whole 286 area, excuse me, here was the whole 286 level right here. It took out 286 and went all the way down to 279. The first move was down, the first move, the first move got absolutely clipped, big move, I mean, really, really big move on Apple, and then you just started seeing them one by one by one. Netflix, again, had a monster run, absolute monster run. They sold it off initially about $7, $8, and this was the major pivot here, 429, if it builds below can flush. If you guys notice, everything was to the downside. So here was Netflix, right? Here's the whole 429 area, right? 429, 429, 429. So it takes out 429, just gets destroyed, goes down all the way to 415. I thought it had a shot at 410, traded to 415, but nevertheless, massive move there. I think this trade's gonna be really good. It didn't trigger, but I think this trade's gonna be very good, guys. I've been talking about this TAL now for a couple of weeks. I'm waiting for this thing to build. Look at the chart, I just wanna give you guys kind of a heads up on a trade here. So look at TAL, okay? You guys see this whole daily chart, right? 50, 50, 50, 50, 50, 50. It's held 56 times. Now why am I kind of concentrating on this random name? If you guys remember, LK came out with some news like two, three weeks ago that they were cooking the books. Remember that? And I think they halted LK, that Chinese coffee company. There's always been a stigma with Chinese companies that they're kind of not on the level. This company, we've been hearing about this company for years, and it only popped into my head a couple of weeks ago when I started watching it. The buyers started coming in. I think it was the 37 and a half, the 37 and a half and the 45 near term puts. I have to go check which ones they were. But if this thing, again, I don't know macro wise if this company's one of those LK companies, but if this thing ever starts building below 50, this thing's gonna go, okay? This thing's gonna go. I can't tell that 50 way too much. So I'm still waiting for that, especially for next week. Amazon got absolutely destroyed. 263, 261, if it builds below can flush. Here was Amazon, here was Amazon right here. Here was the 263. You see this right here, guys? The 263, 262 area. It took out the 263, 262, went all the way down to 2316. I know a lot of you guys had covers in the 2320s. Phenomenal, I mean, phenomenal, phenomenal move on Amazon. I caught Roku pretty well. My lowest cover I think was just a bit under 20. So Roku was good, 2350, 2350. So here was a 2350 right over here. It broke, it actually went all the way down to 1855 before it actually woke up. But again, you could see that was just the game plan. It worked out really, really well. I didn't trade Chewy. I sort of go lower. Again, Chewy again, then another benefactor for the whole stay at home movement. Again, they sell pet supplies. I use Chewy all the time. 4175, it builds below can flush. Here was Chewy. For any of you guys who did take it, I had no interest in this trade. 4175 went down to 4113. Oh, not even a big move. I thought it was a bigger move than that. So only went down 60 cents. Roku perfect, Roku perfect, Netflix monster, Amazon monster. Monster moves. And I joked around, I go monster moves, have a great weekend, markets open for 10 minutes. The funny thing is I actually should have stopped. I actually should have stopped there. And as much as, again, this is basically the play. And as much as we say, look, you could be the greatest, most focused trade in the world. And I say this all the time, if you lose your concentration, okay, for one minute or get lethargic or get lazy, you're gonna lose money. So I put in this pivot here, okay, I put in this pivot here, 753, huge support, huge support on Tesla. And let me show you why. So we were watching Tesla for the whole part of the morning. Okay, and by the way, Tesla's been a phenomenal stock to trade in the last weeks. Okay, this week has been phenomenal. So here was the pivot, right? Here was the low right over here, this rising support here at 53. And what I usually do, 99% of the time, I wait for this channel to get confirmed. You guys notice what happens actually when the channel got confirmed, right? The stock was sold off another six points. I didn't do that. Let me tell you why. So people always ask me, how long does it take for the fear of missing out to leave your body? And I usually say, well, the longer you trade, the better you'll be, okay? But that 1% of the time, okay? The 1% that you fall asleep behind the wheel or get lethargic, you're gonna get hurt. So here's what happened, right? And as much as the week was great, I did give back some money on Tesla on Friday, no complaints, the week was great. There's nothing, the week was great. There's nothing to complain. But again, I never learn anything from the day-to-day business when things work, they should work. If they don't, you have to figure out why. So I started watching the option flow on Tesla and you started seeing these really, really aggressive put buyers come in. And if you guys know the one thing that I always say, somebody always knows something, correct? And we started seeing weekly puts coming in in the 750s, right, for the weeklies. And I said, all right, Tesla's not rallying. Let me watch this, let me watch this thing. Because the day before, if you guys remember, the day before you saw massive call buying on Gilead, they came out with news that their initial trial is working very, very well. Massive buying, millions and millions of dollars they knew, right, or they were good guessers. The night before, you saw massive call buyers in the 145 weekly calls on Boeing, right? $7 out of the money. They must have been really good guessers. So I had this deep in my mind and I turned around and said, yo, are you watching this Tesla? Buyers coming in, 1.4 million for the May 695s, right? This is when the stock was roughly around 757. Yo, another guy comes in, 1.9 million for the 695s. At that point, baby, I was hooked, right? They got me, they got me. So instead of waiting, right? Instead of waiting for that confirmation, right? I get short, it goes down $2, it comes back up and it gives me a chance to get out. And I'm saying this in the live webinar, as it's happening, as I'm short, I'm saying to myself, damn, I just got caught. I know I should be covering the position. I know I should be covering the position. I know I should be covering the position. I'm in God's hands right now, right? I'm in the market God's hands. And the one thing we've been saying for years and years and years, God doesn't care about your position, okay? Especially now what's going on. Doesn't care about your position. I should have got out. I knew I was wrong. I could have got out, break even, even went up a little bit of money. I decided to sit in the trade with no confirmation because again, the fear of missing out kicked in, right? The 1% that's still in me kicked in using all this as my reference point, using the information from the night before my humanity kicked in, yada, yada, yada. I lost five points. So the moral of the story is very, very simple guys. Confirmations are important, okay? We're idiots, king of the idiots, the Messiah of all idiots right here, okay? If Christ is buying puts on your stock, don't anticipate, wait for confirmation because if I would have waited for confirmation, like a good little soldier like I did, right? Right in the afternoon, then I would have caught a seven point move instead of losing five. So again, we're human beings. We learn from our mistakes is gonna happen again. Of course it's gonna happen again. We're human beings. As long as we're living and breathing, right? And thinking, allegedly, right? It's all gonna happen, but the most important thing is recognize it. Don't cheat, don't anticipate. Our names are not Ms. Cleo. We don't have crystal balls and make sure that you are ready for the next trade. Really good week everybody. If you're joining us in the live webinar, please, if you're gonna sign up this weekend, please watch the workshops. The 2.0 and the 3.0 is all included. It's over 10 hours of data and content breaking down these pivots. As you guys haven't seen for years, there's nothing random about these things. Once they confirm, right idiot? Once they confirm, usually good things are gonna happen. Guys, God bless, have a great, great weekend. Stay safe and I'll see you on the field in a moment. Take care. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? 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