 The cheat sheet that I've always, especially given our folks, at AccessToTrader is, you know what? You want to play the premium hand, the premium hand. Welcome to AccessToTrader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is well, right? It is for all of us who live in the Northeast or a lot of parts of the country. It's just brutal, brutal outside. I just went to Whole Foods. It was six degrees outside, just incredible. So hopefully one of the blessings in life, just to have a shelter with some heat and everything else kind of works out well. But again, you guys, hope everybody is well. Merry Christmas, right? Merry Christmas, everybody. It is 10 o'clock, 10 30 in the morning on Saturday Christmas Eve. Hope everybody has a wonderful Christmas, great Christmas day. If you're like my family, you know, we have that whole Christmas Eve fish and pasta, and then Christmas Day is meat and everything else under the sun, a lot of food, a lot of love, and a lot of happiness. That's the most important thing, and I wish that for everybody. So let's talk about the markets, right? If you are new here, please support the channel, subscribe. If you are new, like the broadcast, we'll try to give you as much a fair, unbiased approach and view to the market. So let's talk about the tape. So the bulls were still kind of trying to figure out the hawkish stance from the previous Fed meeting the previous Wednesday that kind of came into and rolled into Monday. You know, he started seeing more, the continuation, more aggressive selling, especially in the NASDAQ. If you look at the benchmarks towards the end of the week at the final bell, you see the Dow up a little bit, right? You see the Dow, just because again, the Dow is literally 30 stocks. It doesn't really take a lot for the Dow Jones to be up. S&P, S&P, I think with S&P was down, well, S&P was flat, excuse me, S&P was flat for the week. The one, the continuous one, this is where our, at least my focal point is the NASDAQ was down 2% as you can see here, even if you go back to a week ago, right? A week ago when we talked about the ramifications, what happens once you break the 50-day moving average starts a selling cycle. And I think the way the selling cycle started in the last seven days is exactly what you should be kind of used to, right? We're kind of starting to get used to what to expect down the road until the bulls finally put up a stand and kind of reclaim back the 50-day moving average. And as of right now, we are 11 points below the 50-day moving average. So you'll see, like we saw predominantly in 2022, and I think we could all agree, no matter if you're a bull bear, I think we could all agree that predominantly of 2022, we saw about 75-80% worth of downward action in the next and about 20-25% of upward action. That's pretty much it. And that's pretty much it. I think every two and a half out of 10 days, you'll get, I know it sounds weird, but every two and a half out of 10 days, you'll get an update and then followed by a down day. And that's exactly what we saw in the first seven days of this newest channel below the 50-day moving average, down, down, up, up, down, up. I guess you could call 60 cents on the queues up. Moral of the story is that's exactly what you're going to expect. Some dead cab bounces. And the cheat sheet that I've always, especially given our folks, that acts as a trader is you want to play the premium hands. The premium hands are the trend days. The trend days are days that everything is red. Those are the premium days. Then you have the Christmas tree days. And then what I mean by that is that's the dead cab bad days. You'll have some stocks that are green, some stocks that are red. Pretty good disconnect. But the overall theme is still down. And those dead cab balances are pretty short-lived. As you can see, they tried to dead cab balance it on Wednesday. And then the next day gave it all back and then some. And then Friday put an inside day of Thursday selling. So that's kind of the theme. Like I said, is the market going to go down every single day? Of course not. Of course not. That's exactly what we just talked about. And you could just see even here the little second to last time we broke the 50-day. Selling, selling, selling, buying, selling, selling, selling, buying, selling, selling, selling, selling, buying, selling, selling, selling. You kind of get the point. So I think that's going to kind of pretty much play out again this time around. Again, unfortunately, even the biggest bulls are saying some really cautious things. For example, David Tepper. A lot of you guys know who David Tepper is. He is now a better known as the owner of the Carolina Panthers. He is the founder of Apple Music Capital Management, former New Jerseyan that I used to see in Starbucks all the time. His office was about 15 minutes away from my house to move to Florida, built a $5 gazillion home, or at least $100 million home. But anyway, he's one of the biggest bulls. He's literally one of the biggest bulls on the planet. There was a recent interview. And I think if you YouTube it, it wasn't horrible, it wasn't like Armageddon is coming. But if you Google, if you go on YouTube, and you do David Tepper recent interview with CNBC, he kind of made a very cautious stance. He is not only shorting stocks, but he's shorting bonds. He believes the continuation of right hikes will be present in 2023. So again, when you have the biggest bulls starting to get a little bit more defensive, and you start talking about not even taking money off the table, taking equity or exposure off the table, but talking about starting the short stocks and bonds, it really does paint kind of a picture. And these people are a lot smarter than us. But the point is if they are following the same trend, I think there's a lot of validity to it. And I didn't need to see an interview with him to kind of know what we're up against and what we're headed for. But it was kind of always reassuring to see somebody smarter than you and a lot more experienced than you kind of taking the same stance and looking at the same direction. The one important part that we didn't see on the dead cap bounce, and if you watched Thursday's video, you kind of get a reference point. There wasn't any call buying, and that's the key. I've always said this, and I've always maintained this, short-term speculation money out of the money calls are very, very important to light up equity prices. We didn't see that on the dead cap bounce, but the following day, which was Thursday, that whole bounce was erased and we took down previous days range, we saw a lot of out-of-the-money put buying. And some of the names that continue to get hit, I mean, Tesla, Elon Musk did a whole Twitter spaces talking about how he has no plans of selling stock for at least two months. Well, somebody's selling, right? It's just not us just banging bids. Somebody's selling and continues to selling. I can tell you, it just feels like a forced liquidation here. Stock closed at its lowest range in a very, very long time. They were coming for next week for the 120s to 115s, and we saw some 110s being traded for next week's puts. I mean, look, I personally think there has to be at least one bounce attempt at Tesla. I'm not gonna be the first person trying to buy that bounce. We trade Tesla both sides of the market when it's necessary and I'll always short it, especially into weak bounces. And that's kind of the value and we'll get to this week in a second. But I do believe if there is a big gap down on Tesla, there probably should be at least one attempt of a dead cat bounce. Nothing goes straight up here. Even when Tesla broke down here, right? We had like six, seven days. We still had two, three, four, sometimes five days of bounces. We're not getting that here. So it really does feel like, it's just my opinion, I have no idea. But it really does feel like there's this forced liquidation. Some fund is just being liquidated. Again, all speculation might be happening. When you get this much serious aggressive selling, it's very, very important to kind of to really, really pay attention. A name like NVIDIA, for example, and I will get to individual setups that I like for this week. NVIDIA had a big run, right? Had a really, really big run. Obviously has come in like everything else. It's not closing the 150s. Notable what we started seeing for next week. We started seeing a lot of 144 and 140 puts. And the reason why that's so important, not only did you see the aggressive price action come in for next week, but look how it's just sitting here on this rising daily support. Again, remember the blue line? Remember the last time here? Here's the last time it broke that light blue line, right? Here's the last time it broke that light blue line. Look what happened here, right? So check this out. I mean, it's the same thing, guys. Look what this thing is. Look where it closed, right? Watching that NVIDIA this week, this is definitely my top watch this week. It doesn't necessarily have to crack down this level and doesn't have to necessarily die. But I'm telling you, we start losing this light blue line just the same way we started losing it all the way back in August. And August was, I mean, look at this move in August. Just in the first four days, the video went from 168 all the way down to 132. And that's in the first four days. So I'm gonna watch this thing. Because again, pass is kind of repeated and you have muscle memory and you have a potential price action. This could be really good. So I'm definitely, definitely watching NVIDIA this week. Again, they were coming for the 140s, 144s. And if this thing starts really moving down and the market starts really unraveling, look at how much room you have. You have room all the way down to 115. I mean, I don't wanna be that guy on Christmas Eve, but then it's Christmas. How can you talk about shorting stocks? I know it's crazy, right? It's the market. The market goes up, the market goes down. The market doesn't care if it's Christmas, Groundhog's Day or your birthday. The market's either gonna go up or the market's gonna go down. You could accept it and be an adult and you could sit there and try to figure out emotionally what went wrong in your current state of affairs. So I mean, look, we're definitely still sell bias. Again, can the market rally at any point next week? Of course, I think going into next week, I think the ranges are going to be a lot tighter, okay? So when you have a light tighter ranges and you have a sell cycle and that's kind of where we are right now, I think the value is, I started playing these a lot more this week. I think the value is rejection into rallies into 60 minute supply or daily supply. We saw some really pretty good moves and I'm still trying to develop them. I know a lot of people have been trading it for a long time. I've been trading a lot more of the bounces in a bull market and rejections and bear but I started trading them this week pretty darn good. I know a lot of you guys feel exactly the same way. So I think that's where the value is gonna be this week unless a name like NVIDIA starts imploding below the channels. I think a lot of people are going to be off this week. A lot of people are going to be done for the year because again, we only have one week left and I think because of the tight channels, and again, hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised and I'm wrong, but because of the tight channels I do believe the better value, at least for us, right? Us in the webinar trading PS60 theory is going to be rejections off of either intraday supply or daily supply. So let's talk about, let me give you guys some ideas. I know you guys have Christmas stuff to get into. I don't wanna stop that, I do too as well. I gotta still clean. We're going to my wife's cousin's house tonight for Christmas Eve and then tomorrow the whole family comes to my house. I gotta start cleaning and all that stuff. So let's talk about some ideas. Again, NVIDIA, guys, watch this bottom channel here. This thing starts losing this bottom channel. There's a lot of room down. Not every chart is in a weird way a downward chart. Look at Crocs. Crocs is held up very, very well. Again, it's not something that I'm gonna do. Like I couldn't care less about Crocs. But if you are a long biased trader and you're looking for a setup here, take a look at this thing. This thing starts building below the early December highs, man. This thing could wake up. Same thing with Caterpillar, right? Not really my thing. I trade basically technology, but boy, look at Caterpillar looks pretty good. On the downside, again, Tesla, I think the better value in Tesla if it gaps up on a day. Because remember, if Tesla's gonna reverse at any point this week, I have to assume it will. At some day, there's gonna be an update on Tesla. But I don't think that update on Tesla is gonna be on a gap up. On a gap up, the value is rejecting it into supply. I think though, if Tesla gaps down, especially below last week's channel and starts to reverse, then I think there's a shot we can get a pretty good move back to the upside. So that's it, everybody. For all you guys who are planning to join us for 2023, our guys are going to give you pretty good discount to trial, the last seasonal trial until the summer. So if you are thinking about joining us this holiday season going into next year, this is obviously a great time. If not, I wanna wish the rest of you guys a wonderful, wonderful Christmas, Merry Christmas, happy new year. May God continue to give you blessings, love in your heart, and empathy for others. Guys, God bless, Merry Christmas, and I will see you all next week. Take care.