 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, Basil Chapman. This is the Tiger Technician Hour on the 24th of May before the long weekend. And I hope everyone has a great long weekend. Let's look at the market. This is the 8am edition. I'll be doing this, I'm doing this early. It'll be recorded and played in my noon time show. So pre-market, the futures, the Dow futures up 114. Yesterday the Dow, you can see in this chart right here on the left, the Dow closed in this arch formation. Remember in the Chapman way, what we're always looking for is, let me just do it from the beginning, for the most identifiable, lowest low, mid-account each successively higher peak, four peaks later, peak A, B, C, D, alphabetically uppercase on the way up, can go to E, F and G, but at D, the fourth highest peak, other things can happen. That's where the yellow light goes on. Don't have to do anything. You just got to be wary that this is where you could get a sharper decline or an instant restart where it goes to another four peaks higher. Patterns are looked for straight line like up and down, that's one, an arch or a cup, that's two, and then you get the mix where they come together. H-pattern means that if the left side low gets taken out with certain technical deterioration, that's very negative. And on the upside, if you get, if the left side high gets taken out in the cup formation and it closes above that with technical confirmation, that's very good. All right, enough with that. Let's get to the nitty-gritties. What does it mean? Well, it means that you've got the V-shape or cup shape in the weekly chart of the Dow from the 26,951 slumping to the 21,712 December low, October to December. Rally sharp, it takes a longer time than starts to roll over after that and we have two bar reversal at, on the 26th of April at 26,695, the next high is just four points lower, starts a PXC. And this PXC has gone underneath, I made it thick this week to show it because it's so defining the 14-period exponential moving average, that black line, thick black line, under it right now it's being repelled from the daily 14-period moving average in the H formation, lowercase H remember, that makes the 25,222,222 lower the 14th, the left side low of critical importance. Why? Because the magnet is trying to turn up and it might make a W formation if there's a failure today. One of the reasons why for my subscribers to my opening call, remember, this is the weekend of the last weekend, we can get a fantastic discount, 20% for this, I mean, this is really quite something. Tiger, it's called the Memorial Day, Tiger Dollar Sale, and we just get it right, it's 20% bonus, 30% bonus, and a 40% bonus, I mean, in the market you don't get bonuses like that. So that's very important. So for my subscribers, we've been short since the 22nd of April, just before the recovery high, 26,695, we've taken some profits on the way down, still short. And we're looking to see what happens on this oversold condition if there's a balance, could make an M formation, lowercase, H goes to a lowercase, M, if there's just a weak balance, it's testing the 25,200, that's quite important here. How this oversold rally works is going to be important. In the YM, this is pre-market, $111 was up much more than that, but right now it shows you that this MACD is trying to make a W formation. Sikastri-Gashti rally, it's a 37%, it's not great, but it's a 37%, very important, 25,708 in the futures. Let me just go back to the cash because most people are looking at the cash. 25,744 is the pink line right there, the nine-period exponential moving average, resistance, break that and 25,820 is the 14-period moving average that's been resistance for so long. Yes, Ruby, we'll look at Coco, we'll look at the commodities in a moment. Let me just finish this so that the Dow had a sharp pullback gap down yesterday. It's usually not a good sign, so this rally is going to be really important. It's options exploration. They can do anything they want on options exploration day. S&P right now, the S&P futures are up. They are up. Let me just check 12 and here's the S&P cash. There's the arch formation, the lowercase H pattern. Look at the weekly chart. MACD hasn't crossed negative yet. So in the ESM-19, the June contract, you'll see a balance. The balance says at this 2832 level, you need to see, and this is at 811 in the morning, Eastern time, so 1211. We'll see where it is four hours time. 2850 is the first nine-period exponential moving average resistance in the daily and 14-period is up at 2859, 120-minute chart has made a peak B. It needs to hold the 2828 to 2822 area if there's any further weakness from the earlier gap up. We'll see what happens. Certainly breaking above, short-term above 2840 would be a good action. Let's go to the QQQ, the QQQ, trading up 0.53 right now. 178, really a terrible day made a lower low leg E underneath the 14-period moving average in the weekly chart. The QQs, the NDX100, that has to go to the 189.50 to the 180.20 area and it has to do it by Tuesday, today or Tuesday. That's really important because if it fails here, that's really not a good sign. And I have to tell you something, looking at some of those tech stocks, they are really overbought, look fabulous in weekly charts a monthly, but on a shorter term basis, they're somewhat overboard. I'd like to go just a moment to the IWM which is the Russell 2000, up 0.31 and 149.70. It had a sharp decline, it's broken support in the weekly chart, doesn't look very good. I'd said about a week or so ago, I'd say 153s is really the area that it needs to hold. It just smashed right through that. Not a good sign, so we'll see what happens with the Russell 2000, the small caps. Let's go to gold because gold was down earlier and it was down three, it was down four before. It's at 1282, it had a really strong candle yesterday, stuck. Look at this, I drew this in, I especially made it thick for a reason. Look at that black line, that is the 14 period exponential moving average. It goes above it and then gets repelled right at that line. This is going to be important, why? Because evidently, Theresa May said that she's either going to resign or she's about to resign and look what happened to the British Crown, try to rally and it failed. Look at the dollar, this is very interesting because the dollar is holding very nicely right on the 14 period moving average at 97.79 on the continuous contract got repelled to the Chapman Wave inside track, repellent zone, hasn't, 98.33 was the previous high, 98.37 has gone to a new high, so this actually is now E slash B and the daily chart went to an E in the weekly and a modest high and a peak E in a weekly chart says this is where you've got to think that maybe the breaks are going to be put on and there's a little bit of a hiatus as there's a breather after such a fantastic move so I'm watching the dollar closely but so far it's actually extremely well. Could it have a breather? Yep, sure can. It could go down to 97.20, 96.80 and still be in a consolidation but so far it's done extremely well. Now the EUR, USD, the Euro is acting tried to rally it's at 1.118 it's not doing very much but look at wheat wheat is trading up 6 at 476.25 it really is holding the nine period the green line nine period exponential moving average beautifully and corn is doing the same thing corn is actually even better it's at 394 and three quarters up five I'll be right back Basil Chapman Taika this is the H4 the Taz profile scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? as you begin your trading day it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions in order to make the best decision the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks whether we're in a bull or bear market a good strategy is to have the tools needed to help you scan and analyze the markets before you trade the Taz Profile Scanner instantly scans and filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as 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then I take another one I copy it and then I paste it and I go from the most important low bar not the breakout that's for the next level so the first one says that my target would be 2 is it 2435 right now Coco up 9 and my target here is 2453 that's at peak B and I'm looking for a a leg C to begin at 24 20 2454 so that's the way I'm looking at it most importantly is that the magnetic cross positive and the stochastic is at 89% that's very strong as long as the stochastic remains flat in the 80s to 90% area that's a really good action I'm expecting that the next time I look at it I'm going to take it and I'm going to make this trend line to the upside I'm going to take it from the breakout and that would take you to 2505 so really my target is 24 54 first and then 24 506 so that's the way I'm looking at it the weekly chart is starting to improve a lot it'll go to leg C in the weekly chart about 2460 and the monthly chart is not looking that great it's really just building I drew this A and I drew this cup formation with a W cup formation on the right side we'll have to see how that works usually there's a trend line that you can follow in that trend line this particular case is very clear right here oh it cuts exactly and it says the resistance is right at the 2460 2-ish area 2470 so I hope that helps let's go on and we're going to look at where it was oh TLT this is I I think yesterday out of all the stuff I did I got a feeling I forgot to do the TLT it was so important I wanted to do it to say that it broke to 128 at the point it wasn't 12809 but it did go to 128.09 that back again alright there it is should be back again do you hear me say yes if it is a yes I've been talking away yeah we're back okay yeah it's just for some reason there was a poor connection not sure why we got no storms today alright so what I was saying is the TLT very important the iShares 20 year Treasury Bond ETF hit 12809 yesterday it broke out remember we're talking cup formations look at this beautiful cup formation cup and handle with a breakout usually with a cup and handle it comes back to retest the handle which is at 126.09 that's the lip on the left side most importantly I believe that this is really representative of money coming out of the insecurity of the volatile equities and going to the so-called security of the in the so-called security of the bonds I'm just going to do this for one second there we go click click there it is see this cup formation left side right side price time match it broke it out one day later yesterday and so far what is looking like still no charts please if you know charts I'm going to put a question mark charts this is terrible this should happen right here Friday before a long weekend I wanted to show these things a very important right now I'm not sure what's going on here with my my internet maybe it is so look at this very large cup formation or bowl formation in the weekly chart of the TLT the left side high of importance is this peak C right here that's at 129.57 back in September the week of September the 8th of 2017 now I'm I'm only going to go back to December of 2017 128.59 and we're in the 128 no chart at all now what a idea so let me try this again go click go out of that put this up and go click again see this camera is on and Gremlins we've got all over the show and now question mark chart sound okay we're back so in the weekly chart you can see this huge cup formation it's really like a bowl formation because it's so big in the weekly and look at the cup formation in the data it's actually gotten even quicker than I anticipated so this is very in terms of bonds it's saying yields are coming down so right now there's a chance we might see the yields come down the TLT pulled back a little bit and then start to move up maybe next week this is a very important moment just give your parameters if the yield if the TLT trading at 127.67 right now start to deteriorate if it starts to pull back they're all of next week short week next week but all of next week if it breaks under 126 you will see probably see a balance in the stock market and yields will pop up a little bit but as it stands right now it's really important that if you're looking at all these different indexes their daily charts are suggesting yeah you could get a balance but be careful this is options exploration today let me just put this out while I see it to my subscribers the doubt needs to be over 100 points at 10 minutes past two to have not succumb to any sudden options related selling I think all the selling was yesterday what we might see today is that every dip is being bought because of options relations activity that's just what happens very often you get counter trend moves from the previous session so just keep that in mind most importantly look at crude oil so crude oil yesterday took a real dive today's balancing a little bit it's up 0.65 at 58.55 what I said for quite a maybe for about six or seven days that the pattern that we were looking at just a very modest rally from the up channel look at this long-term up channel long-term meaning all the way from December it held the red line and then it held the 200-period moving average this orange line crude oil continuous contract tries to rally pathetic just kind of walks above the 14-period moving average the black line and then cut block smashes under it now you've got 59.5 to 60.50 as really strong resistance this is going to be interesting because I've seen that crude oil and the general market trend for a while seem to have gone together and if crude oil fools we're going to watch the dial I'll be right back Basel Chapman thank you Since 1984 Basel Chapman has been using the Chapman wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion while originally hand drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s Basel noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply later Basel found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls thus was born the Chapman wave sequence using the Chapman wave methodology along with other indicators Basel Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter right now you can get a two week free trial to the opening call Basel's daily trading newsletter by visiting the front page of TFNN.com cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing get your two week free trial to Basel's newsletter the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now is a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service David uses his years of trading experience to offer his 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said the chart is very negative the weekly chart is now quite negative in terms of price it's way under the 14 period moving average but the MACDS and turned down but the stochastic is only at 65% so we got to watch this real closely I think Crudel I'd say 57 to 55 if it breaks the 58 level that's really very important and I suspect that's kind of where it should try to bottom and maybe that would be the timing maybe even next week we start to see the general market there's just so much going on geopolitically economically news reports I don't know what happened with the 8.30 report this morning but so far the futures are let me just go to the futures here we're looking at the e-mini is up 13 sort of shaky up and down up and down oh it's handling it quite well make it real clear the futures 28.42 starts to trade in that area the high today's 28.39 50 so far pre-market and it's up 14 so if we can get to the 28.42 area that'll be a good sign to say the bounce could actually go into Tuesday I actually don't I would have preferred to date to be very weak and then we get a really good low Tuesday or Wednesday of next week this is kind of usurping the energy to the downside by wasting it very little pop up that's what I'm thinking here so let's watch this closely so the e-mini underneath 28.30 to 28.28 that's really important near term support underneath 28.24 it's a real problem today so we're at 28.33 at this particular moment so going negative at any stage even if it's just based on options related activity that'll be just very disillusioning to the bulls actually kind of what I'd love to see because then I think Monday Tuesday or Wednesday we start to see some kind of attempt at really holding well okay so a couple of things I was looking at look at this K is Kellogg's holding pretty well Coca-Cola would you believe Coca-Cola getting back to almost all time higher 50.84 nice move at 49.89 pre-market leg I'm calling this actually a leg C yeah new leg C to the upside and D in the weekly chart so there is strength I'm kind of impressed with that if you look at the XLP which is the here we go it has to be select consumer staples holding pretty well leg C in the weekly chart probably a peak C today if it doesn't pop over 58.40 it's at 57.73 right now there are some things that are working quite nicely looking at so oh if you look at the SMH the semiconductors so we're sure that now we're still short the SMH they should have a rally there at 100.04 hit 98.50 yesterday after the 120.71 all-time high on the 24th of April this is not good action so it should I mean stochastic is flat at 9% do you want to see it make a V-shaped pattern at 9% not flat now on balance volume 104.58 sorry 103.27 is the 200-period daily resistance and then 104.58 is the big 9-period expansion moving average 106.53 would be next I think there could be a balance based on this terrible weekly chart just four weeks down severely down after that all-time high that peak C really looks like a peak D very important session here on the semiconductor I why are questioning the dentist I why are holding very nicely this is very much like the XLU they all in the same category this is the I she is Dow Jones US Reets index trust trading at 87.84 let's see above 88.50 that's really excellent action all-time high that would be very good action so here's the XLU which is the utility spider fund huge move up leg D in the week monthly leg G C in the weekly and still looking strong very strong leg B in the dating XLU is looking very good we should have thought of options on this little like now all right so we're looking at the area of yields coming down is helping but has it helped the HY HEX HEX is the for the Dow housing sector index nope it had helped it going from 227 up to that high that was made in the 316 area that's a pretty big move considering it came down from 369 cut by a third when it went to 277 in December very nice balance I'm treating this as a balance I that real estate market has had a terrible time with rates so low you've got to wonder what is going on I think it's prices I think it's a kind of uncertainty and I also got a feeling it's because people who have put money invested money and are thinking that they'd like to put it into real estate have been helped for quite some time in the stock market and they're wondering do I take it out of the market which is working well and put it into the real estate and buy a house and then have used up that capital that's just my thinking how do we know it's really difficult issues and you can't deal with it just on charts in this particular instance because you have to know the thinking behind it but the arch formation that's been formed says that 298 better be good support because underneath it that's a real problem so okay I've got a bunch of things that I've already done I want to do also I had a question okay a question on the S&P a questioner has the SH which is one to one short the S&P done very nicely here so the S&P is making this arch formation the question is where would you put stops let me get the exact question right here Basil I'm along the SH and a profit where would you suggest the stuff from where we are now at the rest of the days Tim Tim yep back to you so I'm looking at this and my big question here is is this going to be a full a full H pattern lowercase H let me show it again lowercase H is this going to be that H pattern that breaks the left side low that's a chaplain wave core fundamental technical pattern that we look at or is this going to be a balance in the S&P that's sharp enough to say take your profit so Tim this is what I'm going to suggest because the S&P has come down from 2949 to the low of 2801 I think it is 2801 that's a pretty deep that's the deepest correction it's had since the December low it is getting ready for a balance I'm going to suggest to you if you have enough take it a little bit off right here if the question is I'm getting a little nervous I've got a profit I don't want to give the profit up then I'm going to say take some off keep the core position on the SH I'll tell you where I'd be a little cautious SH that is the S&P it's a pro shares trust short S&P 500 I'm not sure today is going to be the day unless there's a really disappointing sell-off if that's the case remember what I said yesterday for the question on the S&H SH is that 2802 if it can go to 2803 you have to take something off in terms of money management if you're thinking money management you're thinking of squeezing the last penny out of this decline then you can just raise the stop to 2785 something like that fairly tight but not so tight and just let that be your stop but then you have to suffer through the weekend because you're calling will probably get out of this in the SH until Tuesday morning I think we need to talk about this action I've had a couple of questions about this we'll be back in a moment the 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TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest news I did this in the 120-minute chart look there it is there's the pattern right here this is the I didn't make it green I made it blue just a minute to stand out this is what happens at the top so Tim what I'm looking at is 28.02 was the high yes the 120-minute chart so I've seen the data but you can see it better in the 120-minute chart because the MAGD isn't anywhere as strong as it was at 28.02 I love it over 80% but it it's made a little turn around so this could start to deteriorate and that would say that the tacticals on the right side are not quite as strong in the 120-minute chart as they were earlier on on the 13th when it made the high so what I'm going to say to you is if you have any questions either way why don't you take a little bit off right now to reward yourself if you haven't taken off already on another portion and that training stop would be at about 27.69 yeah 27.69 that's only about 7 points low you pretty much going to get stopped out if there's a pop up this morning the way I'm looking at this I think that you're going to get a better price in your SH at some point but you might want to have a second I know exactly which one maybe take open open and to put that aside and let's watch it together on Tuesday because if there is a rally that's very sharp into the close you could see it go down to 27.44 27.52 27.44 but if it does a rally and then fails then maybe Tuesday you can get back into that position about where you are or maybe a little lower but at least you've taken some profits that's really important the inverse if it was two or three times I would say you have to take something off right now because these things move so quickly but one to one I feel comfortable we're one to one short to doubt still the part that we have left I I didn't see any reason why we should take anything off now even if there's a big pop up we're sort of in a very comfortable position I know where your position is so I'm just saying yes I think that based on the weekly chart based on the I think the SH has a little more to go to the upside the S&P is a little more to go to the downside but very short term treated as a trade the core position I would recommend try to hold this try to hold it but the trading position you can work that go in and out but I will get two carried away try to keep the core position and see how that holds okay so what we're looking at now in terms of the different sectors we look to the IYR what about the IYT questions have come in about this so the IYT at 183.5 you have 30 cents right now that weekly chart almost looks like the IWM not as bad but it doesn't look very good and it says to me that there is a problem in the transportation sector doesn't matter which sector let's see if the XAL is trading yeah not very good so and with crude oil down like this you'd expect the XAL index it's down 26 cents pre-market in 97.69 you would expect it to be up a dollar something with that big smash to the downside so this is telling us something about the economy I think the economy is seeing some slow down right here we've got to be careful about that we've seen enough evidence but the all sectors that have been pretty good so it's a real mixed market so that's the answer to that question another question I had was the VIX index and yesterday the VIX index wasn't very high it went to 18 I think 1802 or something 1805 and now it's trading at 16.15 down 77 from yesterday's close that VIX index in the 16s is saying that there are people that are buying insurance volatility insurance but if it starts to slide and it goes under right here underneath the low of yesterday under 1528 in other words it goes to 15 or even 14.90 day because it's such a big rally then I have to consider that that VIX index that long wick that we saw three weeks ago is going to be there for a little while longer but if the VIX index by the end of the day actually trades into the 16.50 area what is going on no sound damn don't know what to do then while we're looking at let me just close the sound see if I can do something about that holiday mode alright so getting rid of a bunch of stuff let's see if that works sound back sound I'm not sure if it's all together sound is a problem but in the meantime what I'm looking at is the VIX index if it starts to trade in the 15s that's going to be more positive for the market if for any reason up in the 16.40 area that's just not very good at all and I'm not sure if we can get anything here let me just test it out in the sound area sound sound sound nothing there this is a real frustrating thing not sure why it's happening alright can see your chart alright so we're back alright this has just been so frustrating I don't know what's going on I've got a feeling I'm looking at my everything seems to be flashing okay alright let's just do this because you never know when the sound's in sound's out I was saying the VIX index trading at 16.15 right now if by the end of the day starts to trade in the 15.82 area or lower it suggests that there's going to be market strength going into the close but if there is a very big disappointment in the market and the VIX suddenly trades in the 16.32 to 16.38 area that's saying selling pressure is being maintained and that's the reason why I'm saying to Tim that yeah as a just money management if you're in a position you've got enough take a little bit off because you want to reward yourself for the gain but I am thinking that from the basis I'm looking at right now the Dow, the S&P the QQQ and the X100 there's a little more work to be done probably by next week we start to see something that represents a real tradeable low I'm not sure yet but that's the case that's my thinking so we'll see if that's going to happen now I had a question about GE yeah I'll do GE just for a second GE to me is trying to form some kind of a tradeable base that's a tradeable base for an intermediate term rally I don't think it's there yet it didn't make an item reversal yesterday but it is saying it's held very well from the low of 6.66 it's hit it's gone to the 11s and now it's trading at 9.67 I think there's a little more work to be done I want to see how it handles 9.20 to 8.90 if there is another sell-off at any point in GE if I can hold that for the next two weeks I think maybe GE is starting to look a little bit more promising so I've answered your question there next question I had was could I look at Amazon Amazon is trading right now Amazon's up 17 had a big down day yesterday 50 something points it's at 1,833 it's gone to a leg see there's this H pattern remember what happens on the left side after an H pattern well the idea in the Chapman rate methodology is there's the left side there's that H pattern right the left side low of 18 1575 let me type that in then we've got a break then we've got the final section 18.17 I think it was 25 or something like that going lower says that you've got to close above it but it didn't close below it and that's got some other issues I'll be right back hopefully Basel Chapman type conditions our pre-recorded show this is 5 minutes to 9 10 minutes to 9 it'll be 10 minutes to 12 I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we Tigers and Tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be 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thrive we take it every morning primal edge formulated and approved by NICO and Paige of living a primal lifestyle buy it today for just $89 click on the primal edge banner on the front page of TFNN.com don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV that's TFNN.com then hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information Hi folks just to mention that on Wednesday Wednesday the 29th of May at 7 o'clock I'll be the special speaker at the Boston Investors Group meetup and that's going to be at MIT E-51 room 376 by 17 Memorial Drive Cambridge Mass anyone in the area I'd love to meet you this is a great group I always get questions that I really have to ponder because a lot of people there are fundamental analysts and there are many technical analysts as well but it's really exciting I'll be discussing socioeconomic political trends affecting the market charts, key indices chapter weight methodology and notation on the different charts and really important areas that we've covered now this morning and of course dollar gold etc so I hope to see you there and let me get out of that just in case that's also messing up the save changes yes you're out of there so on the shorter term you've got to see the dowels the futures are up about 111 points 120 points the Dow futures you want to see a good rally and at 3 o'clock 10 minutes past 2 today if the Dow is up over 100 points or more that's going to say the options exploration hasn't affected it negatively and that they could still be a rally close but just be careful for those red pools because an options exploration day they do all sorts of things rallies beautiful and then all of a sudden boom slide slide and then all of a sudden boom rally so just be aware of that and I still we still bearish for my subscribers to my opening call my daily newsletter please check out the check out the front page Memorial Day weekend this is a great time to save money for all the benefits you get from the tiger dollars the opening call is my daily service hope you have a wonderful weekend and I still believe that we're going to be testing the lows of 25,200 in the Dow over the coming week or so we're getting close to some kind of really good good balance stay tuned for Larry Presavento and if you're listening at noon stay tuned for Steve Rhodes and thank you Larry happy holidays to you and happy holidays to everyone what I am looking at is the Dow resistance today will be cash index is 25,500 to 25,540 to 25,590 and then 25,620 is next if it's a really strong rally you don't want to see a big rally have a rug pull and all of a sudden go close to negative only plus 20 by the end of the day that'll be very per action have a wonderful weekend check out my opening call on the front page of TFNN see you on Tuesday