 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread here on the fan duel podcast now We're getting you set for week one of the NFL it is finally here We're taking a look at the betting is slayed for this week and breaking down our favorite numbers My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire calm joined here as always by Ed Fang of the power Inc.com you can follow Ed on Twitter at the power Inc Ed week one officially is underway It's finally here. I am pumped for this weekend both for college football in the NFL. It's been a long wait, man It has been and you know, we got we got a game last night. I personally enjoyed the heck out of that game I'm not one of these people that doesn't like defensive struggles like that I enjoyed Alabama LSU whenever that happened back in the day. I thought it was great and You know really looking forward to the rest of the season. Was that when Brad Wing was still with LSU? I don't know. So because if it's a low-scoring game I want like if Brad Wing is there I actively want a low-scoring game because he was right the weirdest dude and so fun to like watch the football player I that's the ones because I I am easily pleased and love offense But if if Brad Wing is involved as the punter, I want low-scoring personally Yeah, absolutely, and you just got to appreciate like what the Bears defense did last night I mean that was that was impressive exactly and the Packers defense which we'll talk about you go to the back of that game You talked about it They looked awesome, too We'll review that game in just one second because Ed coming out smelling good and cover in the past. We'll bring on Donnie Seymour to talk about NFL week one and the preview of some bets that he likes is betting philosophy Why he doesn't go that hard at week one. That's a really interesting discussion from Donnie You can find him on Twitter at right side VP. He is the host of the closing line He is also the CEO of right wager.com. You can find more of his work over at sportsbook review We'll bring Donnie on in just a bit to preview week one But also we got a college football podcast up in the hopper right now We talked to Drew Martin of sports memo calm to preview week two of college football We talked LSU, Texas the crazy line move we see in that game Clemson Texas A&M and also talk with Drew about some smaller conference schools that he likes this week And that's really a specialty. So I thought that was a fun discussion You can find that discussion with Drew by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Spotify Apple Podcasts Tune in the Google Play Store Stitcher iHeart radio. It's up all those places. Find it subscribe rate interview the podcast We appreciate those of you who have done so already But before we talk to Donnie, we got to go back through last night's game Covering the past All right Ed on Wednesday We talked about the Packers and the Bears you said you wanted the Packers plus three I believe it closed at Fandall Sportsbook at plus two and a half So you got a half point of juice and the Packers one of the things you mentioned in liking them Was the defense and the changes the additions that they made there I think that that really showed last night like it wasn't just her biscuit struggling the Packers defense played really well And actually legitimately made good plays it was forcing some mistakes, too. Oh for sure I mean, I feel like the past rush was good. I'm even more enthused about the secondary I mean you spend all these high draft picks and I feel like you know, my friend was telling me last night He's a big Pac-Man. He was like, yeah, we've done this in the past and it hasn't really worked out But it you know, you know, the coverage was pretty good last night and it could have been even better if Kevin King holds on to that pick And yeah, you gotta you gotta like what you see on the defensive side of the ball And you know, I'm not giving up on on the offense despite what you know The struggles that they had against a very very good Bears defense I think we always have to remember context and the context is the Packers were on the road They were facing and what the team that was the best defense in football last year and this Packers First team unit didn't get a lot of run in the preseason You remember Aaron Rodgers was going to play then had a back injury flare up and then the third preseason game They were on that field in Canada where it was 80 yards. None of the starters played So the context the Packers I think makes me not even care about what their offense did I just liked what I saw from their defense So I thought that was a really good, you know, if you if you back the Packers, they've got a tough schedule the next two weeks So I'm not sure how they'll look there either, but overall. Yeah, the next three weeks I think it was a very encouraging game for them What do you think about Chicago based in this game? Is there any movement for you or is it just kind of a sloppy game that we can write off? Um, you know, I mean, I mean I had Chicago under nine and a half wins Sent that out to my members not exactly a An uncommon opinion amongst the analytics crowd, but but but so many things point to that direction You know, we didn't really see regression on the defense, but you know, it's a long season and we'll see how that goes You know, I'm definitely I'm feeling good about that Trubisky was kind of interesting because he was he was obviously the other reason why I did not like Chicago I like Chicago under nine and a half wins and You know, he's really good in that short passing game I feel like he's very accurate and then you get past about ten yards and then he's kind of all over the place And every quarterback is obviously gonna get less accurate the further he throws the ball up and you did see him You know make some nice throws like the fade to Robinson was perfect But I will take Mr. Trubisky trying to throw the football down the field to get their Team back into a game and that's what the Packers said as they wanted to make a Trubisky play quarterback and Yeah, and it didn't work out very well for Chicago So Ed off to a good start this week And if you want to get in on the action check out the FanDuel sportsbook and place your first bet today If you lose FanDuel will give you a refund up to five hundred dollars in psych credit Visit sportsbook dot FanDuel dot com for more details terms and conditions apply Must be 21 plus and physically present in New Jersey or Pennsylvania gambling problem call one eight hundred gamble Let's take a look at week number one now with Donnie Seymour again Follow him on Twitter at right side VP. You can find his work at right wager.com and at sportsbook review Let's get set for week one of NFL Covering the present Let's welcome Donnie Seymour into covering the spread Donnie It is a pleasure to have you on here to talk week one of NFL week one is finally here. How are you doing today? I'm doing really good. Thanks for having me on the show today and football back in our lives Especially NFL football so much fun that last night when we taking a look at that game Maybe not so much fun, but just having it back was good. Wasn't it Jim? Yeah, it was fun I you know, I think that it was interesting Ed had talked about wanting the Packers side of that bet So things were well for him Did you have any takeaways personally on your side from watching that game because Little scary for the Bears. No, you know, it's funny about that because I know a lot of people looking towards the Bears this year Maybe there's gonna be a little bit of a downgrader regression last night I actually thought the Chicago Bears would win and cover that football game But my one drawback was I kept saying all week long Can we just get an average performance out of Mitchell-Tribisky if we do the Bears will win? You saw it last night. You got a below average performance. That's exactly what you get a Bears loss from that Yeah, it was not a fun game to watch Yeah, and Donnie I was following your Twitter feed last night and you tweeted Tribisky stares down every throw and After you did that was actually wondering if you had some kind of special feed or to the game But I started watching for that and on the interception Stared it down the entire time I mean it was it was amazing when you watch because you're trying to look for the progression of a quarterback And they have an offensive play called Matt Nagy should get you in better position And it's simple stuff that we talk about looking off a receiver going to your second and third reads It looks like he was settling for every single first read that was out there You're right Ed in the culmination of the game the most important point what happened to an awful Interception into triple coverage and the safety rotates right over like hey, you're gonna throw it here I'm looking over here. I got it exactly Edman exactly. Yeah, so you don't have any kind of special feed You're just no no Just a 40 year old. I feel now there you go. All right awesome Now donnie one thing I was about your process in a little bit Yeah, one thing I was talking about Ed on Wednesday was how we balance film versus what our data says and obviously You know what you're looking at you know film really well, so for you personally in your betting process How much do you trust what your eyes say when you're watching it? It's such a good point you bring up I know Ed was gonna bring this up as well like my whole philosophy on betting especially with the NFL College and even It gets into Major League Baseball as well. I love to use numbers But I don't like to use old numbers like if we're gonna take it to effect You know the how the struggles on the road for the Green Bay Packers that was last year now You have a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but just getting to look I actually wait till week three of the NFL season to start my service and start really betting some good money on some of These football games the reason being is I need to see with my own eyes What the numbers are actually telling me and in football as we know high school football college football lower levels of football Teams improve more from week one to week two than any other week through the entire season So for me week three, I get a really good look of visual saying you know what mr. Trubisky really didn't improve himself because if he plays horribly week one like we saw but plays really well versus Denver Then week three should you know what we might get a little bit of a rebound back in that focus But taking a look at the numbers if a team can stop the run if a team can really run the ball or a team is really good in Past defense. I need to see with my eyes, but also the statistics So that's why I wait a couple weeks to make sure both of those numbers sort of meld together with what I actually see when I'm watching the football game Interesting it's nice to have that that sample size and it's not a big sample size But you can kind of you know, either invalidate the numbers or validate them that way So I think that's an interesting process How long have you been doing that where you've been holding off until week three before really diving in? It's been about five or six years now And it's worked out well for me because a lot of people get a lot of good study work in and they can formulate their opinions Week ones week two week three so you know what I know what I'm looking at and if that works for them That's fantastic But the one thing we always bring up as being better is what we fail to measure as what our shortcomings are and I found myself all The years like where do I really struggle? It's opening day. I'm more of a fan like hey I really saw what this team was doing last year. I think they can carry it over. Wait a second Why did that work week one or week two? I was losing more money over the first two weeks of the season than the remain Do the season and just by trial and error leaving out those first two weeks. It's been pretty good to me So why good? Why why break something up? That's working really well. I stick with it Yeah, that's excellent I don't want to ask you some other questions about uh, you know, you're betting You know, when you think about kind of futures and wind totals versus betting individual games How do you distribute your bankroll and what's your approach there? It's interesting you bring that up there at because I only have one future this year that I put on That's the Atlanta Falcons team total over eight and a half But most people say well, why do you only have one if you're really a football guy Can't you sort of see how the week's playing out because jim talk before we were filming on the show about the Filled out the Eagles. I think there's stone cold, you know get in there for at least a double digit win season But I find myself again at I'm more of a procrastinating better And what I mean by that is I like to see it go out on the field So if we're going to take maybe a future maybe waiting a couple weeks on a team total said, you know what? This team is really good. They're improved much more than what I thought last year was going to be or Oh, the bottom really fell out of this football team They're not playing well to try to extend it because maybe the same approach I take at two weeks one and two of the football season It's sort of the same way with the futures I'm not that good over the past couple years at picking actual team totals and futures because I'm taking a look as you know A snapshot of where this team's entering in the season reading the tea leaves in the all season And we know a lot of that stuff plays out that doesn't work into my favor So very limited sample for me on taking the team totals and that's just because I have to be honest with you If I'm going to lose more money and just have fun with it It doesn't make sense to me So I really pull back and say, you know what work and I focus maybe one or two team totals and maybe hit those for the season And I think that having that self-awareness is better is a pretty major strength So that's one strength for you. I would say is it better But what are other strengths? You know when you're looking at you know areas where you perform well where well Whether it be a certain markets, you know props totals spreads Where is your strength as a better outside of that self-awareness of knowing where you're weak? To be honest with you Jim just keeping it simple because I know a lot of the times You know, we're handicappers and we look at information all week and with majorly baseball You got it seven days a week, you know, you clean the slate you open up the next day as a whole slate of games I find the one thing in nfl college football You have a whole week to actually get after these football games and you get that paralysis by analysis So sometimes I want to dig in a lot on monday and tuesday like my capping throughout the week Sometimes you're going to jump a line that looks good or you think maybe a key injury is going to play into it Over the following week, but when I really set back I like to dig in monday and tuesday take a day maybe day and a half to let it sink in Take a look to see where the lines are moving get those final injury reports And then really hit it hard on like that wednesday thursday and friday. That's really my betting prognosis throughout the season Interesting. Yeah, uh, when you're looking for different edges, you know Where do you find that you get an edge over the field? Is it by watching games and trying to diagnose what you see those first two weeks or where is your biggest edge? Yeah, you know, I mean We all have the same like different things that we look at but for myself when you take a look at football Like I played football my whole life, you know the interworkings what I actually like to try to factor in because The numbers are good. I mean the people making the numbers in las vegas are offshore They're usually the smartest man in the room. So you're trying to find that outside angle like maybe, you know A travel spot in football Maybe the weather is going to be hot or maybe the weather is going to be windy Or this team doesn't perform as well as they do in a dome or going outside Like getting back to just the atlanta falcons team total over eight and a half That I was looking at earlier in the summer and you're going to play a you're a dome team You're going to play a ton of games in the dome that sort of makes sense We're maybe on the periphery the teams or the odds makers aren't actually looking into those type of individual things As opposed to just the numbers itself, but just trying to get feed in from the outside How does this football team going to respond? They just got crushed last week How do they respond this week? The same thing that you take a look at maybe individual weeks Especially with week one the miami dolphin's front office raises the white flag and basically tells the team We're not ready to win this year. We don't want to win this year Maybe you factor that in more emotionally as opposed to just what the numbers say there jim Interesting now it's time to do a couple of games here Some big games on this week one slight starting off on sunday with the rams at the panthers And this is honestly an excuse to pick your brain a bit about this rams team a little bit and the panthers honestly too Because I think they're both fascinating right now Uh, it's the vandal sportsbook It's the rams minus two the total is 50 in this game And we saw cam newton with that shoulder injury last year really drag him down But it seems like he's healthy now that foot injury seems like it's a thing of the past his shoulders look good Overall just ignoring this game. What's your outlook on the panthers for 2019? You know, it's kind of interesting You bring that up jim because we had a same look similar to what the indianapolis cults were going through with Andrew luck in his shoulder injury missing a year of football Which cam newton didn't miss a year of football but coming into the off season He's throwing a nerf football up to like may or june like what are we really going to get and he was sensational last year Now flipping it over taking a look at cam newton one of the more maddening teams that I had down the stretch Was the carolina panthers because of how well they actually hit that shoulder injury from cam newton That's seven game losing streak the ultimate, you know culmination was that new orland saint's game Which was a 12 to nine game cam newt had 131 yards passing in interception No touchdowns had 16 completions in that game jim But only had eight or should the eight which do christian mccaffrey which only eight for the wide receivers What are we going to get out of cam newton because when cam newton is engaged like when you saw them on their superbowl run He's an mvp phenomenal quarterback But how many times have we seen cam newton throw the towel over his head check out of football games? And also what's the last thing we saw to cam newton over the summer getting injured versus the new england patriots If I can get a healthy cam newton, which on the injury report They say he's healthy for week one if they can win this weekend versus los angeles rams We're setting up a good start, which is means an engaged cam newton where they could possibly five in one before they had out on the road to san francisco Yeah, that's interesting. I mean, what do you think about? I mean, he's probably not taking as many hits as he did earlier in his career Does that affect your? Take on panthers. It's a it's a really good point when you bring it up at because where do we like cam newton? Third and one and third two You know, he's going to be able to run and use power football his own power running game in order to get that now Coming off that shoulder and also we're talking about reworking his whole mechanics. Oh, he looks great in practice We don't really know how that's going to take place What that's actually going to look like until he gets those bullets flying and the blitzes are coming into him But taking a look overall cam newton. I like the running cam newton spread wise But for the longevity of his career, he's going to take less hits and I don't know that might affect that carolina offense a little bit Ed Interesting. Yeah, let's go for the fans too. Um, this is the unit that had a lot of turnover on the offensive line Just ain't get jared goff to pretty big contract What what do you what do you think about their offense heading? Over the season I'm telling you I still like it and I know the last taste in our mouth is what when you look at the Super Bowl like oh my goodness jared goff wasn't ready Sean McVay was in way over his head and overthought things But you try to bring it down to the basis here because you're getting a whole off season and yes There's always usually a super ball hangover understand that and it's a tough spot They're putting him in coming west coast to east coast playing in a one o'clock game humidity first game of the season We saw some rusty offenses last night. Do you get that same rust because take a look at the Rams They don't play anybody in the preseason on their own football team But moving forward if you could tell me Ed today like I'm going to get Todd girly week one From what he was in september of 2018 as opposed to what he was at the end of the season in the playoffs That's going to be a plus Cooper cup goes down midway through the season that really affected their passing game He's back So when you take a look even though they do have offensive line turnover We get that but they still have a really good quarterback a dynamic play caller If I get Todd girly healthy with those three rod receivers There's no reason to believe that they can't be another top NFL in the offense this year Yeah, all right. Do you like any bets in this game here? We got the Rams minus two the total is 50. Are you feeling any of those or is this a stay away? No, you know what and again this gets back into my week one week two philosophy Like I have a certain set way But you know what I don't really know if it makes all that much sense because I'm betting in the philosophies that I generally don't Believe in which is that short home dog You know the public's loading up on the Rams and the line is moving in the direction towards the Carolina Panthers But I still seem to think I don't know there's more question marks to me Jim Based on what the Carolina Panthers are going to do specifically just with cam newton Is his shoulder right is his foot right the one thing? I think I know is I'm getting a healthier version of the Los Angeles Rams game one and they're just have to win this I mean we're talking about two and a half. So if they win the football game, they're probably going to cover I actually like the Rams here week one Jim All right, let's move on to the sunday night game Steelers at Patriots Patriots five and a half point favorites here. The total is slipped. It's down to 49 It was 50 and a half before and I think that's justified personally But the Steelers know Antonio Brown this year probably a good thing at this point But you know offensive efficiency, I think you could expect that to go down with him gone So how do you feel this Steelers entering 29? You know what? It's really interesting because we see a lot of this information coming up Basically off of hard knocks and Antonio Brown and I was always really a lot lower on Mike Tomlin as a head football He's you know has a super bowl title. He's won some football games. We get that but now that you see How he managed Antonio Brown now goes to another football team He moves up a couple notches on my list, which maybe their focus is a little bit better But let's look we could trade punches with this one with Antonio Brown Your matchboard or football team when he's on the field and playing than when he is not So now we're going to take a look at the Pittsburgh Steelers entering into this game You don't really make a lot of money typically betting against Tom Brady in New England Patriots in Foxborough And again, we're not talking about a 10 and a half point spread of 14 and a half It's under seven at this point now. So we're taking a look at if New England is going to win They're probably going to win and cover by seven points But looking at it directly, what did the New England Patriots do really well in defense? They tell the other team I'm going to take away your top weapon And force you to beat me some ways that you're probably not used to doing So last year if you say, all right, let's focus on Antonio Brown Juju Smith Schuster is going to be wide open or able to be maybe one on one coverage and beat his man Now you go in the Foxborough this year and the New England Patriots say, okay Let's take away Juju Smith Schuster. Do we lean on now? Montcrete? You have Conor in the backfield. There's a little bit more moving parts in that offense It's a calming effect on that locker room not having Antonio Brown But boy, I bet they would like Antonio Brown on Sunday night lining up at wide receiver Yeah, no absolutely. Yeah, absolutely. What about the Patriots offense? You know, they're losing Gronk Still got Tom Brady. They're still still still coached by Bill Belichick gives your take on that that unit It's amazing. Every single year we have the same conversations when's father time going to catch up with Tom Brady The offense is moving. They lose this guy. They trade in somebody else and it still seems to operate and be very efficient I like that Josh Gordon coming back into the lineup if he can stay healthy If he can stay in the lineup and avoid suspensions That's a big boon for them. Demarius Thomas coming back off of that devastating Achilles injury We'll see what he has on the opposite side But still a veteran guy with a big body Tom Brady usually likes to work out in space Julian Edelman one of the best slot receivers in football and that running game That seems like they crank up as the season goes on to get ready for that cold foxborough weather coming up into the playoffs Gronkowski is a big loss. I mean he was a huge outlet even later in his career, which again He was talking about 29 29 years old You saw him sort of turn into that Frankenstein type tight end couldn't move as well But he was always there. Look at the last game they played in the a of c title game Biggest play the end what third and five they throw up the Gronkowski makes the big play that leads them to a victory Not having that outlet there and again, we're not talking about a dominant tight end behind them They're pretty weak at tight end when usually that's one of their strengths But this is the best football coach in the league and Bill Belichick one of the best offensive minds They have an offensive coordinator as well Sometimes I just think it's business and usual there until we see it change Ed Is that enough for you to get to to bet the Patriots minus five and a half or is that line appropriate? I think the line is appropriate But I'm not going against early in the season again We always know the chips on the shoulder that they play with the NFL doesn't like us Roger Goodell doesn't like us They didn't even put us on after we won the Super Bowl on Thursday night Let's show them what's up the crowd's going to be in full effect a little bit of moving parts As we said on the offense with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think Brady and the Patriots have enough I think they can win this game by a touchdown here All right, let's finish up here with one of the Monday night games That's Texans that say it's the Texans are crazy interesting this year because they kind of work into their future But they made themselves better for 2019 by getting Laramie Tunsel and Kenny stills in there Saints minus six and a half here the total is 52 and a half What do you think of this new look Texans team with Laramie Tunsel in the fold? It's actually short term Jim. I really like it because if you're gonna get an upgrade of tackle You're going to get another weapon a wide receiver to go with the two that you already have that are pretty good A mobile quarterback Bill O'Brien made good moves for this year down for the future I think it was a terrible move for the organization because to me You're making these moves because you think you can win the Super Bowl Do I think the Texans can win the Super Bowl? I don't but now you see that little window You say, you know what Indianapolis called struggling or maybe perceived to be struggling without Andrew Luck It's a good move for this year and it's certainly going to help them out in game one But again, we get back to that there's very few teams that have home You know atmospheres that really affect the other team. We're not talking about just a loud crowd We can get you like you can't hear when you go to the New Orleans This team's last time they took to field was in the dome when they got robbed and thinking they were probably going to go on And win another Super Bowl they didn't so this crowd's going to be amped up and ready to go But let's just take a look at your breeze from the opposite side at home in prime time a phenomenal quarterback It's hard enough to beat them there and the one thing that we look at is, you know, we're gamblers It's the line. It's not going to win the game because if you're getting the line preference you want If it's a seven point line to be honest, I'm probably leaning more towards taking the Texans in this game If it's six and a half I'm probably leaning a little bit more to taking the New Orleans Saints and also I'm getting an older drew breeze I'm getting a healthier football team early in the season Worst your breeze going to be with that arm when we saw a little bit of arm fatigue late in the football season He's in a dome. He's going to be healthy. The crowd's going to be ready And also let's not forget the additions that the Texans brought in also a major distraction a major Subtraction when you take a look at your Davion Clanny who's now going to Seattle and not going to play off of JJ What that's going to make a difference in this football game If I can get under seven, which looks like it is available right now I'm going to be leaning towards the New Orleans Saints in this one, Jim Alrighty, uh, we've seen the Saints take a more of a run heavy approach recently and the total year is 52 and a half and That feels high to me, but it's also the Saints at home against a a good offense I feel like I would want the under here. Do you have a feel as far as that total goes? Yeah, I think you're on to something here, Jim Because when you take a look and you don't want to play it off of one game that just happened But you're talking about a new level of NFL over the past five to ten years And that starter's not playing and then all of a sudden being thrown into an energy situation I have to play four quarters and look how many penalties and how sloppy it is So we're talking about maybe one of those 30 or 40 yard runs or big plays down the field Getting called back from a lazy holding penalty That's going to have an effect if you're going to give me a game in that low fifties to start off even though It's in a dome to high powered offenses that can really get after it. I'm going to lean on the under in these situations early, Jim Absolutely, uh, that's all we got for those games any other bets that stick out to you As carrying value for week number one Yeah, just looking at there's two of them that I want to go over and we'll do them real quickly here The san francisco giants come, you know west coast to east coast They're going to play tampa bay, which is a tough spot for san francisco to start into not because hey What do you need donning stuff, you know, tampa bay is not supposed to be that good this year We're going to take a look at some conditions 91 92 a kickoff, you know, florida hot and muggy Maybe you don't practice as well as that out in san francisco But the one thing I like in this football game is I actually like the over and you say well Wait a second you just talked about taking an under in the saints game because it's a little bit sloppy There's some outlying situations that I like because both of these secondaries being with the 49ers in the tampa bay Buccaneers can be had you have two pretty good play callers and also let's see we get out of jimmy garoppolo in this game But the one thing I do like over the past couple years with tampa bay regardless of quarterbacks of fiss patrick that they started Or even jamie swinston was the fact that they're gunslingers. What's that mean? They're going to go boom robust wide open guy. They can hit him for a touchdown They can make that bad interception that leads to six the other way I think we'll get points in this game But one of the key things I like which we just played off of the starters don't play that much If you're going to give those big uglies up front there jim 90 degrees and still rush the passer That's going to be a weak press rushing in the second half. I look for them to get over the number of 50 I got it at 49 and a half. Hopefully we get some points in this football game All right add anything else you want to ask before we get donnie out of here Well, donnie donnie had another game for us. So let's let him go Yeah, real quick on this one too. This is just it's probably i'm an eagles fan You guys know that but the game i'm actually more interested in and than any other game this weekend Is the jets in the bills? This is like the little brothers coming up and say who's going to overtake the big brother in new England. I think it gets started for the new york jets opening day I think it's a cheap number I think the jets are more ready to win now than the buffalo bills would be if it's two and a half sitting out there I think the jets can win this game by three points or more just because I trust more and adam gaze I trust more and darn all than I do alan and I think the weapons around the new york jets are a little bit better than the Buffalo bills and they're at home I'll take the jets modest two and a half this weekend I think it's interesting you said you trust adam gaze because I feel like i've been the only person who has Been not crushing him this all season because I think like I try to account for situation when I you know evaluating people and When your quarterbacks are a one-legged ryan tana hill and brock oswiler It's hard to evaluate a coach and adam gaze did get a Fairly untalented team to the playoffs in miami. So I I like gaze more than others I don't want to like go all out and say like he's an amazing coach, but I think that I have a little bit of faith in him. What draws you towards him and gives you faith in him Yeah, they're like just looking at game one Surrounding it you go from the defensive style of what the new york jets had not giving that much up to darnold to an Offensive look, we're not talking about genius here and adam gaze But we're talking about an offensive philosophy head coach that I think is going to put sam darnold in a pretty good spot And he has a couple good wide receivers. He has levy on bell I just think in this game as a game one matchup Forget even looking like long term in the season I think they're better prepared to win this game than the buffalo bills But looking long term it's the nfl. We're about offense now the days of let's get the defensive coordinators or head coach They're long gone You want the offensive guy in there with a quarterback that you think can project to be into a franchise started with sam darnold I like the future of the jets. I think they're moving in the right direction. You're jim That's right. Jim jim. Jim is not previously professed as a liking of adam gaze on the show So you gotta get down your right side to get that out of I also want to bring up another point you talked about darnold over allen I couldn't agree more It was uh, it actually reminds me, uh, evan sova put out a poll last night It's like, which who would you want as your franchise quarterback trebisky or allen? And I clicked on trebisky because as much as much as he struggled last night He's way better passive than josh allen 80 percent on allen. Wow I don't know if that's just like you're watching the game and you're watching trebisky I mean, he had some good throws too, you know, like I don't he wasn't like, you know, dorian thompson robinson terrible Right. So yeah, I thought that was an interesting poll result No, it was because when you're watching the game last night, like mitzvah trebisky actually had a decent year last year for Chicago Bears I thought the progression would have been, you know on an upward trajectory But if we're taking like pure passers, which is what you need in the nana Look, josh allen is an unbelievable athlete How many times last year on the buffalo bills on third and 15 to josh allen hurtle guys and get the first down That's fantastic for the third and 15, but that's not great for a career moving forward Sam dorrano It's going to be the better player going forward meaning that I think the jets are the better team moving forward as well And yeah, I think that Seeing trebisky do that and seeing that poll really plays into your philosophy donnie where you do want to wait until week three And see where the perception is of people because it could be a situation where I didn't like the bears coming into the year But if people are going to overreact to one bad game in week one, I think that opens a chance I think that that plays into your philosophy a lot And actually jim plays directly into what the chicago bears are actually going to be looking at over the next couple weeks Because the reason being game two they played on a thursday night, and then you take a look at the denver broncos They're going to actually play on a monday night game So now you're going to have extra time to prepare off a bad performance You'll know a lot about the bears and mitzvah trebisky after this weekend in denver coming up in a week and a half All right, that is donnie seamore follow him on twitter at right side vp He is the host of the closing line the ceo of right wager.com and you can also find his stuff over at sports book review donnie Thank you so much It was a delight to hear about your philosophy and you're a little bit about week one I appreciate it and hopefully we'll talk to you again soon. Good luck with the the bets you did life a week one Thanks, I appreciate it. It's so much fun to be on with you guys two professionals here We're gonna have a great football season have a lot of fun and football is here man. This is excited. What a great time Covering the future Big thank you once again to donnie seamore for swinging by and edd I think the discussion we had with donnie was very interesting because I like The cell I like self-awareness in general just in life But I think self-awareness as a better is so crucial and it seems like donnie has has that down pretty well Oh, yeah, for sure. Uh, you know, I think that's a hallmark and uh, you know, honestly like I know How much you watch this is the offensive line and we didn't even get into that so maybe when we have them back on you guys can Spend 70% of the time talking about that. But yes, I absolutely self-awareness I was so tempted to talk 15 minutes about david andrews being out for the patriots I didn't get into it But you know, we can we can save that one for another time for sure Before we take a look at covering the future at and I always preach searching for the best value when betting on gains Well, look no further than the new odds comparison our engineers have deployed over at number fire dot com Odds fire is the premier odds comparison experience across major bookmakers in the regulated u.s. Market You can compare odds quickly identify the best value and even examine first party fan dual data all in one place never settle Always get the best odds check out the experience for free now at number fire or at odds fire dot com gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler. Let's dive into covering the future now and we have this is our final one Before week number one. So what are you looking at here before we finally get a lot of data on these teams on sunday? Yeah, I want to talk about a lana in minnesota one of the things that That i'm leaning towards is lana under eight and a half wins The offense is obviously talented with matt ryan and julio jones But I really have questions on the defensive side of the ball They were 20th in my success rate adjusted for strength of schedule last year You could say well, they suffered a lot of injuries and deon jones and keanu neal didn't play And you'd be right, but in 2017 When those guys did play and they both made the pro ball their defense was also 26 In success rate adjusted for strength of schedule They didn't make any kind of high profile signings on that side of the ball That's the reason I would lean under eight and a half wins But ed you might be saying is like I don't agree with you at all And donny didn't agree with me at all because he kind of liked a lana over eight and a half wins And that's completely fine because the win total market is related to the spreads in week one And this is exactly what I do You know in some of the calculations that I do I take the market I look at the win total For each team and then the price for them to go over and under And I back out a rating for each team So these are your typical ratings power rankings Subtract a rating account for home field to get a prediction for week one And uh, I did that this morning with with the fandal win totals You work out the ratings and then this gives you a prediction for week one So if you like the win totals market it actually predicts that minnesota should win by 2.3 points at home And that's a lot less than the four that's posted At the fandal sports book So if you think that the win total markets for lana and minnesota are fair Then there's probably value in atlanta plus four in that game If you like atlanta to go over and have eight eight and a half wins and you think minnesota is fair You definitely like atlanta plus four in that first game If you think the week one spread is fair Then there's potentially value in atlanta under eight and a half wins or minnesota over nine wins And you know, I wrote about this in june for some of my members. I worked out some of the math and two points there I've essentially showed that like, I mean, this is like betting into a market without a big And that that's what the math I did on the site is and it's obviously easier to win if if they're big We talk about these related markets and The reason I got interested in this was because of the book the logic of sports betting it's by edmiller and matthew davidow I highly recommend everyone go out and read this book and the central idea in there is this no-hold market And they give a lot of examples. This is just another example I mean the wind totals market is related to the week one spread market and You know, we also talk about finding the best line And the mathematical reason you want to find the best line is because you reduce the big that that's essentially what you are doing Um, so anyways, uh, you know, I mean, it's it's not it's not like a pick like packers plus three But it's it's a way of looking at two different markets and extracting value out of it if you have a lean either way And I think that just thinking about things that way and thinking about how one market relates to another is A crucial element to consider especially right now when we do have this and you can price shop for atlanta You can actually get them at four and a half uh at some other books So even potentially a bit more favorable there too. Yeah, I think that this game for me though I I don't know about the spread like I I think I'd stay away from the spread But the under seems really enticing to me because you look at last night's game And the holding calls that we have talked about I think in passing this preseason where it's like Hey, they're going to call holding more often. We saw that actually play out and I think it's like I think Evan Silva tweeted this in the preseason I think 75 percent of all holding calls are on running plays That's going to punish run heavy teams More than it punishes pass heavy teams, which also would help I guess if you're trying to bet atlanta Plus four, but I think that this is also going to relate to the total in this game because Atlanta does pass a decent amount, but they're not like, you know, they're not the chiefs from a passing perspective And minnesota really does sound like they want around the football Think the total being at 48 I would lean under there Right and right now 64 percent of the bets and 57 percent of the money are on the over So you're probably not going to see that number shift in the negative sense But I think at 48 I think I'd be inclined to lean under on that one for this game Yeah, interesting. I mean, it's interesting for me to look at these totals because they're so Kind of clustered towards that mean of 46 You know, and that's that's very similar, you know, the markets aren't going to take a stand on these teams just yet Wait until week three four to start seeing bigger spreads totals that are extremely high extremely low So I was talking about betting the under in games where it's a couple of run heavy teams And last year the jacksonville jaguars were a run heavy team but my focus for Covering the future is actually on the jacksonville jaguars and the over in their game Against the kansas city chiefs because the total in that one right now is 51 and a half at fandall sportsbook I don't think you need to bet that yet because 58 percent of the bets are on the under and 60 percent of the money is on the under according to odds fire So it could still move down a bit more before sunday But I think this game it has it could be one of those that does hit the over In week one and a lot of that is because of the jacksonville jaguars They have a new coaching staff in place john d felippo Is their offensive coordinator and he was with the vikings last year If you look at the first half of games the vikings threw At the the fifth highest rate on first down prior to d felippo's fire and that's kind of the number I looked to and that's via sharp football stats The number that's the number I looked to to see how past happy a team is before A game script kind of takes over in the second half before you get behind the sticks and stuff like that The jaguars threw at the 30th highest rate on first down in the first half So you go from 30th to maybe not fifth because they don't have adam feeling the siphon digs, but Maybe 16 that's a pretty major deviation for them and should increase their pace But also their overall offensive efficiency because passing is more efficient than rushing their offensive line Is healthy now they lost their starting left tackle in week two They lost their backup left tackle a couple of weeks later on They lost their third string left tackle at some point in the season two and they At the end of the year their only remaining starter on the offensive line was a right tackle Who was later cut so the quality of the offensive line play by weak eight was really bad now They got nick foals instead of Blake bordels So I think that we're looking in this game at two teams that should pass quite a bit on first down Which bodes well as far as this game going over the total and when we talked to bud elliott about You know looking at at totals early on he was trying to find teams that will be different in pace This year than what they were last year And I think that the jaguars are one of the best examples of that Entering 2019 and they happen to be facing the best offense in football So I think that you don't have to bet this number right now because again There is money and there are bets on the under and it could potentially go down to 51 But I think as of right now I'd be inclined to bet it even at 51 and a half. So I'm okay with where it's at right now I I think that betting the under on most games in week one is probably the go-to way But for this specific game I want the over add any thoughts for you on jags versus cheese in jacksonville Yeah, I mean my thought was that can the cities run defense was atrocious last year. Um, yeah So that certainly points to the over I mean just with the rate is like if you can't stop the other team from getting successful plays You're just you're you're giving the team more opportunities to break big runs and obviously put points on the scoreboard A lot of turnover on the kansas city defense. So I mean you have no idea whether that's going to continue into this year. Um, so Yeah, definitely something i'm keeping an eye on personally kansas city's Defense and whether they can kind of support a super bowl contending offense And uh, you know jacksonville is not going to be the toughest point that they face So we'll we'll see how that goes It's also worth noting there's a lot of money on the jags because that line opened at jacksonville plus five It's now three and a half and that's despite 88 percent of the bets being on kansas city So that's some pretty serious reverse line movement there in favor of jacksonville and week one Finally here, uh, we get to watch some hopefully good football on sunday. I get jet's bills So maybe not for me just yet. Uh, but I think it should be a lot of fun. Um, you know What are you looking forward to most in week number one? I mean, you know, uh paths and stealers I mean that I mean that is a game of probable You know, I mean, I think we have pittsburgh a little bit lower than they should be kind of in the public opinion Uh, still strong franchise and I mean new england's new england And they're gonna stay that way until bellichick is gone or brady starts playing his age of 42 And um, yeah, I mean I expect a lot out of pittsburgh too Should be a pretty fun game and should be a pretty fun week looking forward to and looking forward to Recapping everything next week and getting set for week number two And if you want to get that week two podcast in the week three college football podcast Make sure you subscribe to covering the spread on apple podcasts spotify stitcher google play store tune in wherever you get Your podcast you can find covering the spread and once again ratings reviews are such a huge help for us So if you like what you heard from donnie or drew this week Make sure you leave a rating and review and thank you in advance to those who decide to do So ed where can people find your work as we get set for this week anything big over at the power rank for this week? Yeah, I'm at the power rank. Um, I post predictions Based on my points based model At the site, so please go check that else out. I had erin shots on the football analytics show this week He is at football outsiders He writes the football outsiders almanac, which is My go-to resource for nfl prep. Um, really good writing And I highly suggest you go check out the podcast and the almanac Yeah, and that's the football analytics show you can also check out the season previews, which are still relevant So I'd recommend you can zip through those pretty quickly, which is nice and I appreciate that as a podcast consumer Find out on twitter at the power rank. I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin thea bald our video producer over at fan dual for keeping us on the air and chopping up our Clips for the at fan dual twitter account. Thank you cal as always Thank you to donnie and drew for joining us this week and thank you to everyone for tuning in We'll talk to you once again next week on wednesday to get you set for some college football action Enjoy the football. We'll talk to you that this has been covering the spread here on the fan dual podcast network