 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The next three days are going to be hectic. We got the final couple days of the NHL regular season coming up tomorrow We have the final NBA playing games and on Saturday the full NBA playoffs began It's gonna be crazy gonna be wild gonna be a lot to bet So we're gonna have Tom Becchio on today to break down his thoughts on both the final our second to last night in the NHL And also talk about tomorrow's playing games and the NBA playoffs on a Saturday welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio checking out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom Thomas this I think this is the first time we talked to you since Quinnipiac won the frozen four So national champions have you come down from the high yet? No, thank you. It certainly was an exciting game I obviously wing 10 seconds into overtime after you know coming back down from 2.0 Is great to see you know third time in the last 10 years. They were in the national championship They finally got a win should only point up for recruiting and continuing to build a program So I am doing awesome, you know, my friends. I obviously were all talking about the game Very exciting. We wish it could have been there wish they could have won when we were seniors when they're there for the first time But nonetheless, it's great to see a win. Yeah, I'm curious what the more Minnesota moment was losing in a championship game in OT with 10 10 seconds in or Blowing a huge lead in a play-in game A couple of nights later It's tough up there. Yeah, they're both very Minnesotan It's it's it's rough, but I'm glad that the Benefactor of Minnesota being its typical sports self was Quinnipiac and you so congrats, Tom Hopefully you enjoyed that and now you get a crazy sports schedule for the next 55 I don't know whatever math hours Until the NBA playoffs began. So you guys just about that too with all the NHL and the NBA really hitting their peak right now Yeah, absolutely. I think this is a time where You know depending on how you view the NBA if you're you know, not into the NBA at all You know a lot of people don't pay attention on a day-to-day basis in the regular season like this at the time where you can You know see these high leverage games high leverage moments that you know provide the best of the action that we should see the Best of the stars and really present an awesome betting opportunity Yeah We're talking about that both the Friday playing games will talk Saturday's games talk some futures and much more Then we'll dive in the NHL slate later on all right here on the show for today But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast yesterday We talked to dr. Ed Fing to talk about some NFL draft betting We talked about a prop that he likes there also talk about ways you can bet NBA despite not knowing it as well as Tom may talk about some tools that Ed and I both use for that find that on the covering the spread podcast feed and Over on the Fandall YouTube page speaking of the NBA playoffs They are here you can turn crossovers into cash with Fandall just visit Fandall right now They place a $5 bet and you'll get an instant 150 bucks in bonus bets win or lose There is no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook Just go to Fandall and sign up to get a hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet your first $5 Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC Bonus issued is non with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Restrictions apply seed terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER Or visit Fandall.com slash RG and Massachusetts Hope is here Gambling helpline ma.org or call 803-27 50-50 for 24 seven support in New York 1877 a hopin wire text hopin Y in Arizona 1800 next step or text next step to five three three four two in Connecticut one eighty eight seven eight nine 7777 or visit ccpg.org chat slash chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming, Kansas 1805 to 247 hundred in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana is 1807 770 Stop in Maryland and the gambling health org in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler.net Now we're gonna begin things for today talking about the final NBA playing games on Friday We got the bowls and the heat and the thunder and the wolves trying to redeem themselves that Back on Tuesday night when you look at these two games Tom any bets you want to lock in right now Yeah, starting off the under 227 and a half for okc in Minnesota. We should see Rigo bear return from Minnesota Obviously altercation the teammate is suspended one game. This is not official yet But you know, we saw the line for Minnesota versus Lakers that line was was super high And you know Rudy bears absolutely very good defender and you know, especially presuming that he does return You know this line, I think he's had a good spot But it's definitely trending towards the under at least in my mind with the matchups Specifically what we saw with Minnesota against the Lakers where they slowed things down a lot I mean this game went that game went to overtime and we're ending with like under 120 points Which is not something we traditionally see in the NBA especially in today's the way today's game is played So to 27 and a half I think is a touch too high compared to the other game I mean to await I think might be the lowest over under I've seen literally all season So if we're gonna continue to see these unders I want to jump in now at 227 and a half and listen for the heat And if we just like take this step back of like the heat first game that total is 228 versus the Hawks And that has dropped 20 points Obviously not expecting this total to drop 20 points But just under that same assumption where people are expecting points They're expecting all these stars to be out there But that's not the way the teams operates in the playoffs They try and play a much more controlled style and that does not you know tend to lead to a lot of scoring And that was one thing Brandon discussed on our show on Tuesday was the slower pace in the NBA playoffs and that manifested for the under like you said despite OT For the Wolves and Lakers also the under for the heat game there as well So you're liking the under 227 and a half for the Wolves and the Thunder for that later game on Friday Anything for you in the Bulls heat or is that one pretty efficiently priced in your eyes? Yeah, that was looking pretty good to me I was looking at some of the player props in that one and this is one of the tough spots It's like you know Zach Levine was super efficient last night for the Bulls He was 12 of 22 from the field, you know didn't need to get a whole lot from downtown He's always been a very efficient mid-range shooter getting to the basket And I think his points prop is at a good spot tonight And he's a high usage high shooter know high high volume shooter for the Bulls It's like I don't want to take an over on a player that is acting where game has a two-way it over under I'm not expecting a ton of points So I think everything is super super tight in that game and ultimately it's probably just the stay away for me Yeah, I think that makes a lot of sense. Okay, so for the Friday games We are liking the under there for the Wolves and the Thunder at 227.5 now the fun thing with being here Tom is that we have these two games to finalize things But most of the matchups are set for the playoffs in the NBA and we've got futures We've got finals markets conference champion markets We've got individual series markets as well when you look at the futures markets Tom broadly Anything you like that you want to get set before tip off on Saturday? Yes starting off that would be Devon Booker finals MVP at 20 to 1 and I spoke about this on Tuesday when I did a segment with stadium for their playoff preview and You know betting on a finals MVP when we're two months out is obviously Very unique thing. It's actually tough. The team needs to make it there So ultimately I want to look for a combination of a team that has a high probability to make it to the finals and then You know be a player that has the potential to win and obviously see we want good odds all these things rolled into one So right now the Suns are plus 190 come out of the west. They're the favorites come out of the west So, you know, we are in a I would say a good spot right from the jump And then if we just look at the differential between Devon Booker at 20 to 1 and Kevin Durant sitting there at 7 to 1 That like kind of implies and what I said in the segment was like that kind of implies like it's number one for Durant And Devon Booker is the number two option in their offense when that's not the case It's like a 1a 1b scenario on any given night It's like Booker is going for 40 Durant can obviously go for 40 Where the prices are too far apart for their actual roles on the court and the production We can see from Booker. We've seen Booker in the finals a couple seasons ago against the box when he's putting up 40 points So I like Booker just from a fundamental standpoint where I think the line and the differential between him and Durant is just too large Right and it's one thing where you could say, okay The narrative here is Durant joins a team mid-season and kind of catalyzes a finals run But that's baked in here with with Durant at 7 to 1 and Booker at 20 to 1 That's a big gap and I think it sounds like in your eyes They're fully accounting for the narrative advantage that KD may have here, right? I think Durant's number is certainly perfect where it is at 7-1 That's probably where it should be given, you know It's in the Coompo and Embiid and all these players are still here with Curry etc, but like again that differential implies Like that there are two different like ceilings of players when Booker can reach a 40 point ceiling in finals game So I'm jumping on a differential regardless of what the outcome might be I think it's still like objectively a good spot and we have a large of a sample on KD with the Suns to know that Booker does not disappear. So I think that that is beneficial there as well Okay, so for futures like in Booker 20 to 1 to win the finals MVP Which you can find in the NBA finals tab over at Fandals Sportsbook Any futures other futures you like here Tom before we talk about Saturday's games? Sure And I'm gonna use the Nets and the 76ers playoff series Pricing as an overall example and I think it does present a good example But I just want to use like this concept overall So the 76ers remind it's 800 on the money line to win the series. No, I'm not betting that I don't think many people are and then you're okay. You're like, okay What if I took the spread the series spread? Well, it's minus two and a half and it's minus one sixty two for the 76ers Like ah, I'm probably not betting that as well. But what does minus two and a half mean they have to win by? three games Right. So if you look to the exact series predictions, right? It the in terms of the exact outcomes of the series The 76ers at winning 41 or winning 4-0 those are both at plus money and that implies that they're winning by three So just like using this as an example if you want to put like half a unit on each or Whatever it might be you are getting that minus two and a half if you nail that exact series score So just because this is this minus 800 is so large. It's minus two and a half It's minus one sixty two like I'm not betting those if I try and just nail the exact series score We're getting them all at solid plus money So that's the route of trying to use in a lot of playoff series for both NBA and NHL Where you have to find that alternate market that does provide value Based on what the odds are telling us like the odds are telling us the 76ers are going to dominate the series How do we take advantage of that for the most plus money? It's going to be at four to one or four zero series Exact score, right? I think that's a good takeaway always With series markets finding the best route to bet your assumption your assumption is the markets are properly pricing in the sixers How can I take advantage of that? But then also with player props with markets with spreads and stuff like that I have this assumption What is the best route for betting that because we have the typical markets, but you've got a full menu so Take advantage of that and use that to your advantage weaponize that because we don't get a lot of legs up In in betting we are at a disadvantage pretty often But make sure you are fully exploiting the good advantage you get in this regard Now I want to focus on saturday tom before we talk about the individual games player props and stuff like that There is a pretty big adjustment here from Talking about worrying about playing time down the stretch to going to the playoffs where uh-oh That is no longer a concern. We are going the opposite way. So how aggressive are you in Upping minutes projections in your mind for key players. Uh, what about role players? How do you adjust for them? How are you making those manual adjustments in your brain to make sure You're accounting for new expectations in high leverage games Yeah, so this is always an interesting question the difference between regular season mba and post season mba and The examples that i'll use I hate the cherry pick box scores, but it just Shows what i'm trying to say so so clearly and it's in these A few most recent games between the hawks and the heat and the bulls and the raptors You know games that's a place to pass tonight. So for the heat in that game They had five players come off the bench But three of those players played at nine minutes or fewer nine four and three minutes That means a two key players come off the bench played 29 and 33 minutes They were essentially running a seven man rotation and the exact same thing For the bulls where they had five players come off the bench three of those players played four five and six minutes The other two players played 25 and 25 minutes. So we are seeing extremely tight rotations Now what does this do for the starters and for the key players someone who already mentioned zack labine You know superficial shooter from the field high usage player primary player and all these sorts of things He averaged just about 36 minutes per game the season last night. He played 40 So and I said this at the deadline in terms of the minutes It's like, okay, what is an extra three or four minutes do but when we have a high usage player You know, he's going to be taking extra three four five field attempt zack labine can be very effective from downtown He's going to be piling up the assists when you take a pra bet on these players that may only be seeing four extra minutes You know, that could be you know, six seven touches on the ball That could be to assist, you know, two three pointers wherever it might be So everything is going to be tightened just a little bit and I'd be willing to go to these high usage players Again for pra bets just because they can do so many different things So when it comes to the role players, I am shying them out from point props But rebounding plot props they're obviously can be very effective Especially if you see lower scoring games because lower scoring games mean turnovers mean more miss shots mean more rebound so you know someone like on a pj. Tucker on on the 76ers If if you are betting on the mba or you playing mba dfs or my pj. Tucker could go 10 games in a row And score a total of 10 points like that's not even exaggeration But he plays 35 minutes a night and he's piling up 30 pounds So I'll never look to him for points, but the rebounding prop could still be there depending on the game environment Are you pulling a clean cappella here and looking for like an alt rebound over 20? Like are we doing that with pj. Tucker, you know Maybe not pj. Tucker, but yeah, you can ladder some of the Uh, some of the the rebounding props that could be for something like rudigo bear who who can put up 15 18 rebounds in some of these games I mean going forward Maybe it's in bead. Maybe it's yokich like whatever might be like we are going to see heavy minutes for them And that just means more consistency and the projections you can bump them up 10 percent Right, you know across the board How much does a decreased pace negate the impact of increased minutes because pace hurts everything But then you do have Three or four extra minutes which matters a lot like you said So does that weigh in for you as well the reduced pace in the postseason? It does and and like I said, it's it's reduced pace extra minutes, but extra minutes on only high usage players of what I want to be focusing on so right Like can take this call will poke on denver is a really effective three-point shooter But he's never the primary ball handler and oftentimes he's fifth on the team in usage It's yokich murray gordon michael port jr. Then kcp So just because he happens to be seeing an extra five minutes doesn't necessarily translate to actual production Yeah, okay, so it's important to weigh those things in your mind kind of know the dynamic roles people may have Whether that role will be scaled back at all stuff like that factor in pace factor in everything I know it's overwhelming But it is necessary if you want to find a good edge here in the postseason now We do have player props up for these saturday games over at faddle sports book They were kind enough to release those pretty early. So when you look at the games on saturday tom Where are you seeing value right now? Starting off that first game Nick clackston of the brooklyn nets under nine and a half rebounds minus 125 The he's the starting center for the nets We don't necessarily see the nets with a ton of size on a nightly basis and we know jill and beat is obviously dominant out there But what in beat is also very good at he's going to drawing fouls And that absolutely puts clackston in tough spots. So Defensively if clackston starts racking up the fouls a he's not going to see the court Which is great for unders for anything And then b if he does start to accumulate some fouls the nets might try to Like ice or not like Iceland but insulate him away from in beat and just bring him help So he's not piling up the fouls and obviously then he's just out of the game So clackston is a good rebounder. He's not great. It's a a tough match up against him b But then also this foul factor really has me hesitant that he's going to even be out there for enough minutes He's going to be out there just for enough time to pile up 10 rebounds Right. So the number you mentioned for clackston under nine and a half minus 125 due to Match between b the fouls he could draw Pace is also a factor there obviously as well. So clackston or nine and a half is where he's going there Any other player props you like on saturday? Yeah, domitus a bonus on the sacramento king's under 41 and a half pra points rebounds assist sitting at minus 111 We know that Both the kings and the warriors are to the highest scoring teams in the league that kings led the league in scoring this year They're one of the best teams all time when it comes to offensive efficiency Now subbonus average 7.3 assist per game for the kings this season Which led the kings the starting center for an mba team led them in assists not the air and fox That's how good subbonus is but what what do we know from the warriors? Uh, the warriors have dream on green. It was an excellent defender and Ultimately these teams are kind of mirrors of each other of kind of copies of each other where Dreamland's going to probably look to to take subbonus out of the game They're going to try and remove him because he's such a key cog in their offense facilitating their offense He leads them in assists So it's not going to be surprised to see curry and and fox and you know Keegan Murray for the kings set the mba record for the most three corners by an mba rookie So it's not going to be surprised to see all these guards scoring But they're going to try and take subbonus away because he's such an important part of their offense and dream on We know is so good at that It doesn't uh, you know, lead me to a lot of confidence in subbonus despite him being probably one of my most profitable players all season And 41 and a half is not a huge number for him either right right He puts a trip. I mean he had a set of career high leadership for triple doubles He's racking up you know these 20 and 18 games He adds in his normal seven assist and boom He's crushing it, but I just don't love the matchup despite this having a high scoring expectation It's a particularly individually tough matchup for subbonus Okay, so the number on subbonus for the pra is under 41 and a half and minus 111 Right now at fendle any final mba thoughts time before a shift focus talk about a massive nhl slate Uh, no my final thought would be to try and use those alternate markets As I mentioned with the 76ers and nets to try and and nail those correct series scores series total games Whatever might be I think that's ultimately What provides a lot of value and even if you don't have a take on which team is going to win Just like six games total seven games total, you know, it doesn't matter who wins at that point You just think it's going to be a tight series six game total could offer a lot of value there Yeah before you place your bet ask yourself is the it's the best way to exploit the thought I have going in And that's just again a general thought not just for the mba playoffs. Okay Let's shift focus now and talk about the nhl a 15 Game slate the second to last day into the regular season tom. My goodness. You've got So many choices on the board here. When you look at the nhl for tonight What are your favorite traditional market bets you're locking in for a 15 game slate? So there's certainly a lot to Consider tonight and the first thing I'll say quickly is that All 16 playoff positions are locked up the seedings are not So all 16 teams are accounted for with the aisles when last night They clinched the final eastern conference wildcards pop the exact seedings For most of them for basically all the matchup except one or two are not finalized So we have a lot of high priority games tonight in terms of teams fighting for points Number one would be the carolina hurricanes versus the florida panthers under six and a half It's sitting a minus 106 Both of these teams need points So there's and both of them need them for very different reasons the panthers Last night with that aisles when the panthers got jumped. So the aisles had 93 points The panthers had 92 points. They were holding down the two wildcard spots The panthers right now if they were to lose tonight That means they play the Bruins in the first round and I talked about the Bruins before on this podcast Where I've literally said is a shock to see them lose two games in a row They set a record this year for the most wins in regular season history So they set a record with the most points by team in regular season history. They're literally a historic team No one wants to play them in the first round Which means the panthers desperately want to win this game and move out of that second wildcard spot Which means if they win they would be playing the canes in the first round potentially Depending on what the devils do against the capital So the canes also have a priority because they want to lock up the number one seed in their division to have home mice And mean they'd be playing a wildcard team. So Both of these teams desperately need to win Which means we probably shouldn't see a very back and forth game because this could literally be the playoff match Of which we see starting next week So a very very controlled non-aggressive Defensive style of game is what I'm expecting because these teams cannot take risks Despite being awesome offenses. They cannot take risks. They have to play this very very controlled And that is a lot of motivation No one wants to play the Bruins, right? They're not horsing around Which means you can play things pretty straight here under six and a half minus one is six For the Hurricanes and the Panthers any other traditional market bets you like tonight, Tom I like the abs in regulation. It's minus 130 It might be a touch too much for some people at minus 130, but the abs are also a team Looking to secure up home mice. They can they have two games left. They play tonight and tomorrow night So they they have technically four points. They can gain which would put them If they wouldn't if they grab all four points, which would put them to number one in the central home Ice is great. They know all these sorts of things. So I like them at minus 130. They are coming off a loss They should be able to bounce back against the Jets tonight I would lean the under in this game. It's not one of my picks, but I like the abs in regulation at minus 130 That has shortened to 135 The traditional money line is minus 205. It's not a ton of movement. There is something there Yeah, minus 135. Are you still going that way versus the traditional money line at minus 205? Yeah, I would stick with minus 135. I also like the lightning in regulation. It's basically the same line But I would stick with the abs. They have more motivation to win the the lightning are locked into their spot Okay, so the lightning traditional money line minus 255 for them and their 60 minute money line is minus 170 So that's actually shortened a bit too on their end. It sounds like the abs your preferred way to go here Correct. Okay. What about player props? What do you see there for Thursday night? Sticking with the lightning It would be Braden points their top line center. He has 49 goals this season Yeah Now his goal odds are very short at plus 104 Which aren't amazing, but they're probably where they should be. I mean, he's a gonna be a 50 goal scorer going up against the Uh, Detroit red wings tonight. Also, his shots are only at two and a half and it's minus 122 I was expecting this line to be a three and a half You know, maybe at like plus plus 108 plus 104 But it's minus 122 for a player is 50 goals two and a half. He's a product It's clearly a primary shooter and scorer for them I'm gonna take both points over two and a half shots and point goal to get to the 50 mark in the final game of the season You go to the over under goal market for point. It is plus 104 to get over a half goals So you get that there and then the shot market as you said is over two and a half minus 122 if you're betting one of those tom preference for you or Split up both ways. I'll go the goal There are a team that has obviously long history Uh, I'll play into the narrative for the final game of the regular season 50 goals is a lot, man. I would do the same thing if I were him. I'm shooting 40 times Don't care. We're we're gunning for it for sure. Any other player props catching your eye for tonight The last one would be the Los Angeles Kings Victor Arbinson over three and a half shots seeing a plus 110 The kings also do have motivation to play and win They do not want to be they're holding down the three seed right now if They were to lose and seattle were to win the kings would drop into the wild card. So You don't want to do that. You'd rather have the three seed than a wild card all these sorts of things The kings are still without Uh, kevin fiallo, who's one of their primary shooters. So victor arbinson now has a very strong offensive role He's been over the smark and can push towards, you know, four or five six seven eight nine shots as we've seen from him so Very easy match of them against the ducks one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league I'll take arbinson over three and a half at plus 110 on a team that has motivation to win And again, that's for the kings and the duck scheme later on tonight I go to the shot market victor arbinson over three and a half is plus 110 Tom, I feel like I've made you run a marathon today Of all the different markets we discussed. No, it's good. Like this is uh A good time where we have some futures we can look at in terms of mba NHL is closing up and again You know, if you're betting on the NHL in these final two days Like stick with the teams that have motivation. I need to play and win like right now I said to you know said to you the other day where like I have the flyers under 73 and a half total points for the season and they're sitting at 73 Tonight and they're going up against the worst team in league against the blackhawks I don't want to bet on that like I'm not betting on two teams that have nothing to play for I need the flyers to lose Like do I hedge out like that's the that's the conversation I now need to have The one exception is if that team is quarterbacked by davis web Then you can bet on them the confidence in week 18 and then he can retire go off into the sunset We can all be happy. Um, so if if davis web suits up for The lightning whatever it may be Feel free to dive on in there That is top vekio. Make sure you check him out on twitter at dfs underscore tom find his work over at number fire tom Appreciate the time as always. Uh, have fun with your bets. Enjoy the next couple of days. We'll talk to you once again very soon Thanks for having me. All right. Appreciate tom as always again follow on twitter at dfs underscore tom I am on twitter at jim sonnis back once again tomorrow talks me pl Talk some mlb. We'll talk some nascar to get you ready for other stuff going on across this weekend This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network