 Welcome to Global Connections. I'm your host, Carlos Juarez, and today joined by a special guest who's going to help me unravel some of the puzzle of what's happening today in European politics, the crisis of democracy, rise of populism, the protest movement in France that's taken on, you know, added dimensions in recent days. And joining me today is a special friend, Dr. Mohamed Adin Eliatoui. Mohamed, thank you for joining us here on Global Connections, and I look forward to this conversation. Welcome. Thank you, Carlos. Thank you for inviting me. Now, Mohamed, you're a professor of international relations in Mexico now at the University of the Americas. You come from France, however, and Moroccan heritage. Maybe some of our listeners, we have listening all over the world, particularly in the Asia Pacific region, but a little bit about yourself. You've been in Mexico several years now, but you've got a European background as well. Exactly. I have more than two years now in Mexico. And I was born in France. I lived all my life in France, my dad is from Morocco, but I lived all my life in France, and I'm professor of international relations. I studied history and international relations. And here I'm working a lot about geopolitics and global security. Excellent, and also a brief time visiting professor researcher in Medellin, Colombia. Exactly. I was visiting professor in Colombia, Medellin, in Knoxville a few months. And yes, I worked a lot about Latin America during my PhD thesis. And now I'm working more about geopolitics and global security. Excellent. And of course, we're looking at this unraveling dynamics happening in Europe. And now you're seeing it from afar. It must be interesting because most of your life there immersed in it. And now you're seeing it in some ways from a different perspective. I wonder briefly if you might comment about that, how does it look from afar? It's really strange, Carlos, because you know, now I'm living here more than two years. And it's really strange because when you see what is happening in Europe and in France, it's my country. It's not so surprising. Because when I lived in France until 2016, everybody said one day we will have one new movement revolution. No one knew really which kind of movement, which kind of protestation, but everybody knows it. And now when I'm seeing what happened in France, it's really strange because for me, it's normal just happening. Well, in many ways, of course, the story of the history of France is one of protest, dissent, you know, a lot of popular movements over the centuries now. But maybe to bring us to focus, we're looking at very recent years, we've seen a variety of crises happening in Europe. Several years ago, the dramatic refugee and migration crisis that was flooding particularly in 2015. We had some shows back then that were able to profile some of that. But more recently, we've had, of course, the rise of in general a tendency of right-wing populism. A lot of it is driven by the anti-immigrant sentiment. A lot of other issues too, a crisis in the European Union, that's several dimensions. But of course, most prominently, we've focused attention on the Brexit, the UK's recent referendum to exit and all the trauma playing out there. And most recently, after I think last November, we had the rise of a new social movement in France, the Yellow Vest. These are the young, well not young, but these are basically taking on a symbolic look with this new vest. Let me start and maybe I want to first show a map of all that we have here to share with our audience. So we can see over the last few years, the rise of nationalism in Europe. And this is pretty widespread, even Scandinavia, you know, Sweden, which has a large immigrant population there. This past couple of years, they've elected a large percentage of, used to be a fringe marginal group, the Swedish Democrats. Now they've gained more in places like Germany and Austria, even Switzerland, Spain, and today Italy. We see again widespread Hungary, the little Victor Avon, the leader there, obviously a strong anti-immigrant, right-wing populist, Poland. Wherever you look, we've seen this growth. And I wonder if we might just begin. I mean, from your perspective, what do you think are some of the driving forces, what's causing this rise of right-wing populists? You know, I think that we have different problems in Europe. You have economic and social problems. I think the European Union didn't understand a lot what is globalization. And the French situation is more complex because France has its own tradition really far from the liberalism and economical liberal, with welfare states, really strong, etc. And what is interesting is that you talked about a lot, Poland, Italy, etc. All these countries had a reaction to globalization and to the migrants. But in France, you have the same problematic, but with something more. In the French history, never we had a president like Macron. Macron came as an economic secretary, a technocrat. In many ways, he was outside of the system, the traditional political system. He said that it was outside of the system, that the Yellow Vests said he worked for the bank Rothschild. He was the advisor of Franco Hollande. He's certainly an elite. He's part of the establishment of that. Exactly. And what is interesting is that he is the first candidate and the first president who assumed to be a liberal. He said, I'm a liberal. I agree with the process of globalization. I am accepting all the new rules of the globalist engine. And the French people have to accept it. And what is interesting is that it won't be election in 2017 at a moment when the UK Brexit and the US Trump. And in all the occidental, the western world, we had a new necessity of protection against globalization. And he came with a project of globalization is the future. So it's really strong. And if we make a historical operation, we can see that in Europe, France, it's not the first time, but it's an exception. In 1979, Margaret Thatcher came to a power in the UK in 1980, Ronald Reagan. They said neoliberalism, free trade, etc. And in France, what happened? 1981, François Mitterrand, a socialist with four communist secretaries, came to a power. So it's really strange what is happening in France, because we have the impression that France is part of the history. But I think it's something different. France, it has its own history, it's a member of Western Union, the European Union, Western countries. But at the same time, France is an exception, a strong welfare state and contradictions with its historical partners. Very well put. And of course, one of the things, and we touched briefly on it from your early comments is what we're seeing in many parts of the world in Europe in this case is some ways a reaction to this globalization process. Some have even described it as a disconnect between the elites and maybe even elites who've been in favor of the European Union, this keeping integration now for several decades, and a disconnect with the masses, the people who are feeling somehow either left out or growing disparities, even this European project, quite ambitious. And if we were here 10, 20 years ago, it was a slightly different story, maybe the early honeymoon of the EU. Today, we see throughout it growing anxiety and yet still a disconnect. Many who feel, look, it is the future and it's hard to reverse it. Despite the UK situation, theirs is rather unique. They were always reluctant partners, they were always skeptical. And we have yet to see how that's going to play out. But my point is that I think for the other Europeans, you still get a sense that they're still, or how do you see maybe another way to phrase it would be, how do you see this Brexit unfolding? What impact do you think you could have on the remaining European Union? It could go either way, or how do you see it? I think the Brexit is a very good strategy for the UK to understand. I think the British understood what is happening in Europe. You have the domination of Germany, the economic level, and UK can't accept to be only one part of the European Union. They want to be the leaders and they can't be the leaders. I think the problem is for France, because Macron now has two problems. The domestic problem with Chilean, yellow, and the European problem. Because we can see that Italy with Salvini and the Mayo had a good relation with Visegrad Group, with Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and France. It's a problem. We have an isolated Macron in France and in Europe, and only after two years. I think it's two years ago when he came to office, there was a great deal of insight in euphoria. He represented a new fresh space. His honeymoon ended somewhat, and now he's facing some tough challenges, particularly domestically. I wonder if you see any different role for him at the international level? Is he essentially together with Germany's and Angela Merkel? I mean, these are the two leading players. You know the problem of the European Union is that the three biggest countries are in crisis. UK and Brexit. Germany with Merkel is losing all the local elections at the end. And Macron came with the goal to be the new leader, the new fresh leader. But the problem is that he's the leader of six countries. France has an enormous deficit, an enormous deficit, a problem of international trade with the natural deficit for trade. And so it's a big problem. France is not a competitive country inside the European Union. So you can't be the leader if you have the big problems in your own country. And with the yellow vest, it's a new situation for him because he has to deal with a European who don't want to deal with him. And he has to deal with its own country. And we don't have to forget that Macron, when he came to power, everybody said he came with 67% in front of Marine Le Pen. But the reality is that he came with only 24% of your first leg. And in this 24%, if you are calculating the people who went to vote, it's only 18% of the total vote. So in the end, in many ways, because of the second round system where the top two leaders would then go into the final, he was up against this very far right candidate. And so many of those who supported him were more protesting the possibility of the alternative. So not so much excited about him, but just saw him as the only choice. And I think it was a mistake of international media. Say it's a fresh young leader. But the reality is that his victory was not a strong victory. So it really wasn't a mandate. It wasn't like the majority supporting him. It was more stopping this other rising right wing party and giving him the support. So his honeymoon however elusive it was is definitely over. And now he's confronting what we'll do right now, Mohamed, we'll take a short break right now and come back. I want to maybe look a little more in depth at this fascinating protest movement that's emerged, the yellow jackets in France and see how does it represent continuity, more of the same again, a history of protest, but also a new dimension because a lot of it is focused on specific demands for wages for various topics. So we'll come back in just a short break. Joining me today is Dr. Mohamed Adin Adyatoui, a professor of international relations here at the University of the Americas in Puebla, Mexico, a specialist on international relations, geopolitics, and France. And so come back and join us for the rest of our conversation here on Global Connections. We'll be right back after this short break. Aloha. I'm Lauren Pair, a host here at Think Tech, Hawaii, a digital media company serving the people of Hawaii. We provide a video platform for citizen journalists to raise public awareness in Hawaii. We are a Hawaii nonprofit that depends on the generosity of its supporters to keep on going. We'd be grateful if you'd go to thinktechhawaii.com and make a donation to support us now. Thanks so much. Hey, Aloha. My name is Andrew Lanning. I'm the host of Security Matters Hawaii airing every Wednesday here on Think Tech, Hawaii, live from the studios. I'll bring you guests, I'll bring you information about the things in security that matter to keeping you safe, your co-workers safe, your family safe, keep our community safe. We want to teach you about those things in our industry that may be a little outside of your experience. So please join me because Security Matters. Aloha. Welcome back. Welcome back to Global Connections. I'm your host here, Carlos Juarez. And joining me today from the University of the Americas Puebla in Mexico, Dr. Mohamed Adin El Yatui. And Mohamed is a Professor of International Relations here in Mexico. He's been here several years now, originally born and raised in France of Moroccan heritage. So he's got a good understanding of European politics, especially France, but also the region of North Africa, Middle East, many others spent some time in Colombia. So he's got a good understanding of geopolitics, security, et cetera. And what I want to turn to now, Mohamed, is we've been talking now about just the rise of challenges in Europe, protest movements, populism, a lot of anti-immigrant sentiment. But in the case of France, it has a particular phenomenon that's now end of last year. I think by November, we had the rise of this new yellow jacket, yellow vests. The yellow vests. And of course, tell us a little bit about what it is. The yellow vests are not just random out of nowhere, but they actually come out of what basically, if I'm not mistaken, all automobiles, cars in France are required to have these vests, if you have an accident or something. But now they've become an important symbol for this protest movement. So maybe describe a little bit of movement itself, what it represents. And in particular, on one hand, you can see it, continuity. France has a long history of protest and mobilization. But is there anything distinct or unique about this one? Because a lot of it is driven by domestic politics, wage issues, and so on. I think we have with yellow vests a typical French case, is that we have 18 months after a victory of Emmanuel Macron, a movement beginning Facebook and YouTube with this moment of yellow vests, because everybody has yellow vests. Let's see if we can get help putting a picture. We have a picture here of a protest taking place in front of the iconic Art de Triomphe in Paris. And again, symbolizing it's been going on, in fact, pretty regularly. It's not every week, they have ongoing protests. Since the 17th of November, six months now, each Saturday, we have a movement. The problem is that at the beginning, it was a tax movement, because protesting against all the new taxes of Emmanuel Macron. Because as I said, Emmanuel Macron came with a big debt and he has the obligation to be respectfully from the European conditions and obligations to have a distribution of this debt. So he began to with new taxes and these new policies, as considered by the French people, as a threat of a welfare state. And the reality is that the problem of Macron was at the beginning, he didn't accept to talk with them. And he didn't accept to listen to them. And in France, with the political system, the Fifth Republic, it's a monarchy. You have a president, you have a congress who has not power, and with Macron, a new situation. His party, political party, la République en Marche, was created four months before the election. And the problem is that at a local level, he didn't have this link with the population, with local representatives who had the possibility to talk with. And his personality, some of the French people and the yellow vest, said arrogance, complicated the situation. And it's really interesting because all the revolutions in France began with a tax problem. The French Revolution in 1789 began with a tax problem. So it's really French. It's a political problem, but typically French. And of course, these movements, I mean, they've had episodes, especially in the early days, considerable violence, protests that took on a very ugly dimension. As you mentioned, it begins with a focus on tax, but it's kind of moved on to become even deeper than that. Economic justice, the inequality of the wealthy. We saw in the last week a very dramatic, sad tragedy with the burning down of another round cathedral there. And while it was remarkable that within hours, within days, there was a huge, you know, election of funds, donations from very wealthy. Quickly that became another protest because, well, why, you know, how can they get a billion euros? This donation is our problem now because Emmanuel Macron tomorrow will make a new speech. So sort of an annual or state of the union equivalent? No, in France, it didn't exist like that, but it's with this crisis. He had to make his speech last week, but it was a day, but Notre Dame was burning. So he can't sell it and it's tomorrow. But the problem now, he has to justify why these people have a lot of money, accepted to pay for Notre Dame. And he's saying all the days to the French people, we don't have any money. So it's a contradiction and it's a new problem for him. And it's a new problem because he made something in January. He said, we're going to make a great debate. He went to all the cities of France to talk with the people because, as I said it, as a new party, he didn't have new representatives as a local people, local representatives. That's to go himself. But the yellow vests are saying we are not accepting that because this great debate was managing by the government. And the government was saying you can speak with the president and you can't speak with the president. It didn't represent enough of, you know, grassroots from the low. It was sort of imposed. But I think more to the point, obviously France has a political party system, very complex, but it has some long established parties that have obviously been well connected to civil society. He comes to power, rather, you know, again, maybe part of the establishment, but not the traditional political establishment, doesn't have a party system in place. And so now try and build support or to address this movement. He doesn't have it. You know, he made one mistake because he criticized a lot during the electoral campaign, the transitional parties, the Socialist Party and the Republicans, the right party. And he said, I'm going to establish a new world, a new world. And all the members of this government are technocrats. No one knows them. So the problem he has now, he has to defend himself. They have anyone to help him and to try to justify his decisions. So it's a big problem for him, because we have the situation and the French people like historical and they're saying it's like the king, Louis. He says, during the revolution, he is alone against the population. And a lot of yellow vest are using the word Jacqui. Jacqui was a social movement during the monarchy in the 17th century against the tax against the royal taxes. So they are using French Revolution 17th century Louis the 14th and the French people like the history of history and they like to make So that helps both inspire the movement and also give the additional fuel and passion. And it's fascinating to see that. But maybe, you know, as you described now, the domestic politics very complex, very challenging for the president of Macron. Let's move it back just now where it fits into the broader maybe patterns of what's happening in Europe. We're seeing again on one hand, growing disillusionment and maybe again, what I would parallel is a disconnect between the elites and popular sectors, the crisis in Brexit, can we see that way, even the election of Donald Trump in the US sort of a disconnect. It's also a criticism of globalization. In other words, there have been winners, but there's also losers and sometimes the losers are very painfully hit. What would you say again maybe about comparing some or maybe putting France's current dilemma in the context broader of Europe and where it fits in? In the context of Europe, we have some elites, not only Macron, but in all the countries who are same to the people. The free trade is the only solution since 40 years. And we have one part of the population who say the same, we have more problems with the free trade and without the free trade. The problem is that globalization, it's a global concept. And the European Union didn't find the solution to participate in globalization because they are obligated and at the same time to protect the welfare state. And the European Union has a problem is that we have 28 countries with the UK, 28 countries with 28 welfare state systems. And they are not the same, they have not the same welfare state system and they don't have a new model. So you have a discussion, but this discussion, this negotiation didn't have and don't have any goal. You have a French, not only Macron before or Lanza Kossi, Chirac, who are saying everybody has to copy the French model. UK was saying we have a model of welfare state, the catcher and Blair structure, a big part of it. And we are saying the best model is the UK model. Germany is saying Germany is the best model. And now we have a visitor group. We say, exactly, we have our own model. We don't like migrants. We don't like all these progressist decisions of a society. And we have a crisis because we have a crisis between the elites relation. And we have a crisis between the elites of the European Union. They don't all speak the same voice or perspective. The problem is that they don't have the same history. If you are French, you don't have the same history and Poland. Poland, it was the communism. It was another history. It was a relation really complicated with the USSR. France has its own history. If you are Spain with the European Union, you build a new country. I think that is very valuable. You mentioned this a couple of times. This refers to the central European states, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, that are post-communist states. So in many ways they are new. They are new to the whole project of democracy and liberalism. While their early days after communism was a honeymoon excitement, joining the EU was their ticket to move away from that. I have been traveling to that region since then. Of course, what you see now is a real disenchantment where they are now connected, yes, but also there has been a divide in those countries. There has been a desire to control more their own culture and identity issues. So strong anti-immigrant sentiment, maybe most visible in Hungary but also Poland. And I think increasingly a sense that the European Union project has been more intrusive than a lot of them like, setting standards that they all have to The problem we have, for example, for the migrants. The migrants are coming from the south of Africa or from the Middle East. So we have, you have Greece, you have Spain, you have Italy, you have the countries of this group. While the first countries to receive people, it's a geographical problem. Many of them are receiving them, but they're often just the transit places because they want to go to Germany, to Sweden. Exactly. The problem is that Sweden, UK, Netherlands, I think it's not our problem. And the other ones are saying we don't want these people because we are not the richest countries of the European Union and you don't have any European program, global program, negotiated with the European countries, with these countries, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, etc. You have only national... So I think it underscores how this migration issue has been a challenge for Europe because they don't have a single universal policy that everybody accepts. And then when you have efforts from, let's say, Angela Merkel to try and impose that and tell every country you must have a quota of this many, that many, they don't accept it. That's a big no. So there's been a growing disenchantment with that, right? And so I think the migration crisis, it was quite prominent now four years ago. While it has been managed, it hasn't been solved and it remains a contentious fight. I think what is a big problem is that in the case of the migrants who will not have any agreement after Europe and Libya, but the problem is that the only solution is at the European level. So you have a situation, Macron is living in a situation of minority, Merkel too, you have a majority of countries who did not want migrants, at the same time, they don't want to cooperate with the States with co-development, because the solution for development with African media. And even working with Turkey as they've got to try to stop it at the source and maybe prevent them from making this massive. The problem is now in Turkey, because, for example, Erdogan lost Ankara and Istanbul, because one of the most important elements was part of the Turkish people are not accepting that Turkey is receiving three millions of Syrians. And at the same time, Erdogan, you've the agreement you've signed with the European Union for a few billions of euros, it's okay. We don't want more Syrians. And the Syrian, the first country is Turkey. So we have a global problem and we have only national solutions. And we can't have national solutions because it's not efficient. Right. No, no, again, this is the complex world we're in. A lot of global issues, transnational issues, they require solutions on a macro level, but achieving that is not easy. The census is not there. Well, Mohammed, we've had a great conversation and trying to unravel some of the complexities of European politics. I really appreciate your insights. We'll have to have you, you know, we'll come back and continue this dialogue as it unfolds. I appreciate this. And for our listeners, a chance to hear some perspective informed by obviously an expert comes to us from France, now in Mexico, a few years, Dr. Mohammed, and delighted to join us here on Global Connections. We'll finish on that and hope you can come back and join us for our next show here. I'm your host, Carlos Juarez. Thank you for joining us here. Aloha.