 is a presentation of T F N N. Trading hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1 877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, David White. And as always, we come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So what do we have? Well, we've got a light volume bounce of about 10 points. The pattern has been to sell the clothes are late in the day. Of course, today is the first day of options roll out. So we're going to have a little bit of a break. Wednesday takes us into the true direction of the market, so we may have a little bit to go. But if today's higher, I'm looking for tomorrow to be lower. Maybe we go back to Friday's low or even low, you know, that's maybe. 2760 or something. So we're going to have to set up a lower close. Basically, they think 2900 is where the market is headed. So about 86 points in the cash lower than we're trading at right now. Of course, we're up, but volume is not very good. In fact, we had about two. Excuse me. We had about 3.6 3.7 billion shares. When we started on Friday, we had about 3.6 3.7 billion shares. Now, so it certainly looks unless something dramatically changes that will have lighter volume than the last two Fridays, which is, you know, light volume can be a curse and a blessing. If the markets higher, we've made at least attempted to make a high and hold it a couple of times, but there isn't a lot of money. There's going to be some earnings. Not much after the bell tonight. Got TD America trade TD Ameritrade and Whirlpool. As the two after the after tonight tomorrow Lockheed Martin and Biogon Biogen Centine Corporation, Harley Davidson jet blue Hasbro Sherman Williams biopolaris CIT Lincoln electric holdings. Got a lot of that in the afternoon tomorrow. We go to snap visa Chipotle I robot Texas Instruments Edward Life Sciences we get into Wednesday morning and that is Boeing AT&T Caterpillar United Parcel Services, Northrop Grumman. So a lot of the biggies most of the defense stocks most of the airliner stocks that trade publicly. We got Freeport Mack Moran at 8 a.m. on Wednesday. And then of course, you roll around into the afternoon you get Facebook on Wednesday Tesla PayPal Zylinks line technology Las Vegas Sand six flags O'Reilly Automotive H five. We're going to have a lot of individual stocks. What we're going to have is a lot of either Fed speak because they're in the quiet period. And certainly right now it looks like the president's in. I mean, probably not going to tweet a lot about the Fed is not going to do him any good. They can't respond. So probably not a lot on that farm. It's just going to be straight earnings and from Microsoft had a major reversal come Friday. You had a little bounce out here today. But that candle is not good. You had a lot of volume. It was all the way down. You got a little candle on the way up today on very light of volume. I'm still looking for this thing to come out. And I'm going to go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and go ahead and still looking for this thing to come back to 129 maybe 124 off the 140 67 high that we did have on Friday and on earnings. But give you a little idea to sell the news and nothing new there in Steve Rhodes show earlier in the day. Steve Rhodes. He's a major في producing Crude Index and yes, that is basically the price. That that shippers pay for bulk. wheat. Corn. Anything you can fit in the ship iron. Anything that comes as a is a giant ship full of stuff. And, of course, what has happened is that there's been a change for a global change actually to reduce the amount of sulfur in the fuels that tow this stuff around. They've allowed to have 3.5% sulfur in the fuel oil, and that's going to half a percent. But apparently only about 5% of the ships have been set up to do it. The question is whether or not they're just going to wait everybody out and say, up yours, we're not going to spend all this money, and you guys can all starve if you don't like it. But I don't know if, you know, when you actually look at what's going on, this is the organization that's part of the UN that basically said you got to do this by 2020. Don't know if they didn't give them enough time, or the owners just think that if they don't do anything, that when everybody starts starving and wheat and corn and iron didn't come, and the world economies collapse, that the people at the UN will just cry uncle and it'll all be over. But like I said, I think it's, I've read three articles. I've been trying to find out who actually had ships that already comply, but it seems to be a job that either I didn't do well, or maybe it's just not known, but certainly no one's talking about which ships are and which ships aren't. Many people thought that the big move was because there was a huge amount of demand for new bulk shipping stuff, but the reality is no. It's just those folks are starting to charge more and more for ships that can go to certain countries and tie up without the UN throwing a net over the boat. I don't see a lot in that. I talked to a couple of people that are big into the commodities business. They all understand it and they all say the same thing. There is no play. So I don't think you can directly play the Baltic dry index. I haven't seen ETF for it. If anybody finds one, give me call at 877-927-6648, but yes, quite a move. If you don't know what it is, or you don't have a chart, if you email me at path of tfnn.com, I'll be glad to send you a link to a website that does have that chart so you can take a look at it. Path of tfnn.com, 877-927-6648. If you're not currently using the TAS Profile Scanner when looking at setting up your trading opportunities, then your arsenal is short a mighty weapon. The TAS Profile Scanner is a standalone piece of software that instantly filters over 2,500 global financial markets such as stocks, ETFs, commodity futures, and forex. Heated by Steve Dahl, TAS understands that in today's technological world, the use of top flight software applications and technical analysis expertise is essential to successful trading in today's market. You also gain access to the webinar that Steve Dahl and Tom O'Brien just hosted, the best way to use the TAS Profile Scanner to profit. This webinar archive is available for all subscribers immediately upon signing up. 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Details on the Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN has launched our brand new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com educating investors. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And a little bit more discussion during the break and Tiger's Den about this issue with the ships and that is you can either use cleaner, more expensive oil that only has a half a percent of sulfur or you can buy what is the equivalent of a giant catalytic converter to put on these giant ships. But there isn't enough of the clean oil and there aren't enough companies that build these scrubbers and there isn't enough time to put them on the ships. So who knows what happens on January 1st of 2020. But if you believe everybody it's all about the it's all about the ships that can go into certain ports and those that can't because some places have already said you can't come into our port if you don't have the half percent or equivalent of sulfur coming out. And of course that's to go after you know acid rain all that kind of stuff. But the question is whether or not and how long people are willing to wait to get this turned over and whether or not you actually start seeing people board ships and find them or revoke their insurance or all the other things that can happen. Generally I like to see things like this that have happened before. So you know how they play out because there's generally a way in these businesses where things don't quite work the way that you think they are. I've looked at this problem since I started seeing these articles back at the 1st of May and I don't see a clear signal in any way that that's got to happen to OK what else do we have. Let's do a little history. We'll move on to some charts today got a colors lined up all week. I think got one today at 2 30 got one today or got one at Thursday. A lot of people calling in this week. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. Oh that is it. We wanted to do history is nothing but history repeating it on this day in 1934. In Chicago's biography theater nor notorious criminal John Dillinger Americans public enemy number one is killed in a hill of bullets fired by federal agents in a fiery bank robbing career that lasted just over a year. Dillinger and his associates robbed 11 banks for more than three hundred thousand dollars broke jail and narrowly escaped capture multiple times killing seven police officers and three federal agents over that one year span on today in 1934 course. What else can you say. Let's go to some charts started looking at charts earlier in the day. Again we've already had a lot of signals and many of these and the question is what are we going to get out of them. As we talked about it for a while this Abel Marie Abel Marie Al B's assemble on it. The company that basically sells lithium and mines lithium gap down on 5 8 which was made the 8th for those in and Luke's Florida and we are back into that gap now it did come down with that almost four million shares Friday went into it with 1.4 million shares today we've got about a million shares it did spike it kind of reverse out here. One of the interesting stories with everything pushing Tesla was the amount of batteries that everybody was going to need a lot of new products new cars coming out and being introduced over the next few weeks and into September for the 2020 model year on cars at least in the United States and a lot of these are getting test driven and we're starting to see videos of them and reviews from track and driver and that kind of stuff. Of course on Thursday the new Corvettes came out talk about sex on a stick. $65,000 get you a mid-engine sports car that looks like a Ferrari and a Lamborghini that had a child pretty hot car. Anyway what we have in this of course the big lithium companies and you look at the movement that we had in Tesla back off the lows you're up to 262 today which is really back into a lot of this resistance that came in on the way down. Now the story on this one of course is that China is going to be buying all these cars now that the US is not and of course there's a lot of rumors that Tesla has been shipping as many cars as they could possibly build. Quality has suffered and the question is as we get new electric cars from other manufacturers in fact there's man what have I seen so far? Seeing the BMW very nice car seeing the Audi very nice car seeing the many from BMW also a fairly interesting car. The question is how much is too much and what it's going to do when these cars start getting pushed the EPA is going to make you sell a certain amount of electric cars so that you can sell cars that people want to actually buy that burn gas like that Corvette. Anyway the the push out here is on that but right now I don't know if you can believe all the stories you hear about deliveries I'm not seeing a whole bunch of new ones on the street but certainly the question is how many will these folks be able to sell in China. Of course the absolutely outrageous amount of pollution in China many people estimate that of the pollution in the world 90% of it comes from China right now so us actually doing anything or all the other countries that like to do a lot of hangling and ringing probably not going to change a great deal of what happens unless China gets on the stick. Now they're doing a lot more nuclear and I think they've got four new nuclear plants before the end of this year the big problem they have is everything they all the electric power generation is coal so it's not really going to change anything in fact it may make it worse when Tesla electric cars other than they're just not you know you're putting out coal based pollution or gasoline based pollution one or the other in putting a Tesla on the road in China the reality you know that is always where the rubber hits the road squirrel powered. Yeah gotta have some squirrel stew made by granny remember she was always having squirrel stew. Anyway Tesla is kind of back up into this resistance area we covered it after being short for about $340 down into the 230 area in the tech insider because I mean it just looked like the weakest thing in the world not surprised that you got a fairly big bounce because of course it's got back up to somewhere around 40% short interest and even the worst country in the world can have a huge bounce when almost half of all the shares are shorted we will be back and I think we got a caller getting ready in the wings and we'll wrap up the next segment with that one. Path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter and if you're looking for active trading ideas then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. 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get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com and I think it was last week that John from Philadelphia a caller to TFN occasionally said that he had been trading some of the bitcoin futures and I wanted to get at least a little idea about what his impressions are of trading it before but I think we've got him on the line right now how you doing today John David I'm very well thanks for taking the call on yes indeed I'd like to talk bitcoin cryptocurrencies and actually cryptographic keys to distributed ledger technology instruments yes David I will first tell you I I'm indebted to you for what you did back in the fourth quarter of 2013 where you did a series of shows where you gave tutorials explaining what in fact bitcoin was at the time and I had put just a frankly a trivial amount of money near Christmas of that year going through that brand new brokerage called Coinbase which was launched I think in that year and then scaled out of that in 2017 and you know it was worth my time but didn't have enough to make any sizable dome but that's just a bit of history um after bitcoin surged this year from that three oh 3,500 level up to 19,000 June 26 I think was the day of the peak I was I was curious and looking at the futures contract which I had never traded just to be clear and that changed for me when I saw a setup Monday July 15th just a week ago where it looked like there was the potential for a a b equal cd decline pattern possibly completing so I took a stab on Monday the 15th and then again it was either Wednesday yeah it was Wednesday and had two trades uh both profitable uh but once again nothing to uh write home about and uh so that was my first experience I just share that with you what's the margin right now I'm sorry what's the margin on those and that is a very good question uh right now the the July bitcoin futures contract trading at 10,200 there that contract is five bitcoin large so you're talking five times 10 grand or a notional value of $50,000 uh per contract and here's the thing David there's no leverage allowed in that to speak of the uh uh the initial margin through the uh the uh the broker that I prefer to use the uh the margin is 30 grand uh to trade the $50,000 uh contract so it's about 60 percent of of what you have exactly yeah exactly so uh you can't whatever it to speak of back to and now going back to the point is this an instrument that I conclude is uh tradable and for me my uh and of course I was not paying attention to this much back in January February when it was below four when it would have paid to do so that said when we get up to these levels you know five digits given that this uh this instrument can move five percent literally within 10 minutes it did so in fact last week on Thursday uh for me I conclude you know given the the very high margin given the abruptness of the moves there is just frankly at these price levels no way to trade this with risk control parameters that I that I use and I've developed over the years what I just shared I share that with you and your listeners for what it's worth what's uh what's uh the mission on the trading is it like everything else or was it more expensive no it's uh you know through a uh discount broker uh it's you know it's inconsequential so that's not the issue okay I didn't know you know if they were charging more to get into that so now other than the fact that at the moment this thing is way too volatile uh to trade and the margin really means that you're putting up all your money you might as well trade the actual underlying and buy bitcoins and sell bitcoins right exactly yes and and for uh furthermore at these price levels that's right uh yet uh going through a brokerage such as Coinbase and I believe David Coinbase is uh run by a former TD Ameritrade executives who's got experience in running a brokerage with all the regulatory compliance work but um so so that for example is a broker out there who offers the service of of uh of trading uh physical well physical physical Bitcoin like and that is a uh that is a non sequitur I uh I understand but have you tried actually shorting it I have not shorted the futures nor I've ever shorted the Bitcoin itself no yeah I've got that's the one part that I keep looking at and I can't find any good information on what they do allow and what they don't allow for shorting on things like Coinbase but right again I haven't even I want to be motivated with with just that little uh description of what I've discovered sharing with you and your listeners I wanted to pose a question to you just about uh cryptographic keys um I'll share this here's my working hypothesis my hypothesis is Bitcoin was an invention by people who won't reveal themselves uh to prototype um distributed ledger technology safeguarded by digital keys that is my working hypothesis and then of course we've had the uh the invention and rollout of other things like ethereum and litecoin ripple as well but as this process has evolved of course we all have read that the likes of JP Morgan bank have created their own uh DLT system with its cryptographic keys which they call a version of stablecoin and various central banks around the globe uh uh discuss their uh work in that area and my question is David has the state of the arts in this cryptographic technology advanced such that ethereum ripple bitcoin litecoin just will have no place uh other than speculative trading vehicles in you know a digital monetary system you have any thoughts on that we'll have to answer that question on the other side of this break be back in thank you during the cd market and looking for a secure investment the tiger first mortgage program may work for you the security for these first mortgages are building lots in the tax opportunity zone in st 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this or always wondered what bitcoin really was it is a idea of having money that is virtual but that there is a way of having the books open to everybody that trades it so they know how many different coins or dollars but they call it coins and bitcoin and where it goes and of course we've got a kind of a different issue here in that you can use blockchain for different purposes other than trading cash a lot of people have been thinking about how to tell everybody at the at the property office who owns what parcel of land and there's been a lot of thoughts on you know doing this now the problem with the original bitcoin is that you have to have the bitcoin database since day one which was problematic and that database just gets larger and larger and unwieldy and of course the idea was that you could use this like a credit card and just buy things well it's gone and it's been a long time since you could get a transaction handled in a second but now it takes much longer so people are looking to fix a lot of the flaws in the original bitcoin system microsoft and oracle are both working on databases that have elements of being able to share the ledgers for who owns what in a traditional database and the idea on that is that you could just update the transactions on the database instead of trying to have to eat the entire thing every time you want to update the ledger and again those features in a traditional database are probably the way I think things are going to end up for the end the long term there's a few things where a blockchain makes a lot of sense there's also a thing called a merkle tree which makes a little bit more sense but these are all just ways of having a secret number that proves that you bought something or that you sold something or that someone owes you something but I don't know if there's a lot out there to to say that anything is dramatically changed other than facebook saying that they're going to come out with their own system unclear whether it's based on oracle or microsoft or their own internal issues but you know what the problem is that you always have to rely on something that could go away it's not only trust it's trust with something that can easily go away like a thumb drive or a cd or anything else and that continues to be one of the biggest problems is that you can just flip on a light and everything could be gone you've got no real proof other than the electronic proof that you had and be very careful in any of these systems in the fact that most of these or let me put it most of these I'm going to say three fours of the coin based things have ended up being a scam to one level or another and you know if you I guess the people at facebook think that if you if they were behind it that you could trust that it would be a real thing but again I don't think anybody in government is going to let them anywhere near it so it continues to be an issue the number one purpose for bitcoin was sending money to people that you didn't want to be able to have them trace your cash uh drug dealers now that that has become not much of a real use case anymore since the government can actually find anybody that used or did a transaction those days are gone it has become kind of a trading vehicle companies like what is it I'll think of the symbol here but it was uh you know they uh under oh overstock.com that's what I was thinking about they made kind of a claim that you know they were going to be the first big company to accept bitcoin and for some reason that was going to be a big deal we found out that that was untrue and sometimes you just have great technology that never finds the real killer application a killer application in bitcoin was avoiding the IRS and the feds for selling illegal things and doing illegal things now the use case has changed mostly to dist an issue of trading and yeah you know the biggest thing I can say is that when we look at the price of bitcoin these days is over eight thousand dollars suddenly we're starting to see signs from AMD and others that bitcoin mining is back especially where electricity is incredibly cheap the bitcoin miners are like in the nor region countries where a kilowatt hour is like half a cent or a cent or two compared to the five to ten cents that we see here in the United States those guys are back at it because above eight grand they can make money and I think that's the only thing that's truly changed anytime in the in the recent past anyway we'll get back here we're up seven on the S&P cash no juice all day long again some earnings tonight a lot more tomorrow and I think that's going to put the pale on it as I've looked at options in fact why don't we go ahead and show those I will bring it up do I have time yeah a minute we'll look at what option market makers are thinking as of Friday see did I get it no that would it maybe it's here see if I can find it here we have time you still got a minute I don't know I didn't want to do that yeah come on see if I can get it done then there we go and still have a little time here left we'll zoom on it right now when we look at options as I said the option market makers are pretty sure that we're probably headed a little bit lower this is a fairly decent pattern for this time in options expiration the options expiration cycle but there's continued to look at lower prices right now we're down about 291 on the spies and that sets up well about 70 points lower for the bias right now we'll see after earnings but they're a little concerned that a few people are going to miss and or people will take a chance to sell the news and we will look at that when we come back I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life it's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share if you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done which is how to time the markets I'm Steve Rhodes author of mastering probability and for the last 12 months timer digest has been tracking my newsletter signals which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the s&p 500 for the last 12 6 and 3 months timer digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well the fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do sign up for mastering probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of tfn.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls to sign up today David White's newsletter the technology insider is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology if you had invested only $10,000 in Microsoft in 1986 you'd have been a millionaire by 2000 disruptive 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next on tfn and as we get ready to wrap up yes facebook did break through the 54 million share high on April 25th with about 15 16 million shares it's not quite closed back below that one 9848 but if it does it did on well it was right at that level on Friday if it does it in a couple of days here you can see the right shoulder and a lot of these things getting ready to come back I suspect we're going to get some news and facebook looks to me like not in the next couple of days but over the coming weeks that this 180 to 185 range is where support is and it may be some news about that we see about this security and privacy I I'm thinking that there's another shoe to drop after the five billion dollar fine to do what else do I want to see beyond me a lot of people have talked about that I don't hear a lot about it in the last couple of days did find it kind of interesting that it's up here testing the previous 24 million share high with about 9 million shares today by nd our bees got a like a billion and a half dollars over the weekend they're going to go up against beyond me and say we've got the meat but a billion and a half doesn't seem like much compared to beyond meat's valuation and you know we've got a lot of these stocks coming out this week we'll see a lot of after action reports but I think by the time we get to Boeing on Wednesday and Wednesday morning I think that's where we're going to find the meat to go back to one of those commercials from the 80 where's the beef I think it's in Wednesday mornings earnings announcements in the meantime so when you can not when you have to we'll see you here tomorrow same bad channel same at bad time and of course hang on for more earnings after the night