 Good afternoon and welcome to the CMC Market's live non-farm payrolls webinar event. My name is David Madden. Today's date is Friday, the 7th of February, 2020, and the time has just gone, 1315 GMT. And before we get into the actual webinar itself, we're going to have to go through the risk warnings. For those of you who attend our webinars and events, or even our seminars, fairly regularly, you know this is all standard practice. What you must do is keep, show the risk warnings as a part of the event. Essentially, it states whatever I cover in today's event is not should not be construed as explicit trading advice or investment advice. It's a very straightforward, just have a read through those. And then what we'll do is we'll be coming on with the webinar properly in a second. I'll take a look at what's been going on in the markets and also what to look out for with the actual report itself. And I say this all the time, and I really do mean it, if this is an interactive event, so please feel free to chip in your thoughts, your views, and your opinions, so on and so forth. So first things first, if you take a look at what's been going on in equity markets, it's been fairly quiet. I'm sorry, it's been fairly, it's been fairly negative in that today's session has been negative, first kind of negative session of this week. This here is the FTSE 100. I'll just talk about how we've seen basically a decent rebound all week, except for today. But then again, if you have, say, four straight days, again, you commit to non-farm payrolls, it wouldn't be a massive surprise to have a bit of a pullback. So we can see here, a very aggressive sell-off this day last week, the market popped higher here, it pulled back a good chunk of the ground that was given up, and now we're right back below the 50 moving average. So depending on how the number is shaped up, we could be looking at a scenario where by the market's look to continue the recent push to the upside and if we go further higher on the FTSE 100, we could be looking at heading up towards 7600, and we would be on that, could take us up towards the January highs. It's only really if you go back below the 20 moving average, this red line here, because they would begin to get a bit worried and think to ourselves, you know what, maybe the wider upward trend, maybe the more recent negative, the trend of the last two weeks is going to come back and play, and we could be looking at retesting the lows of February, sorry, the lows that we saw in January. I'll take a quick run through of something, if you begin to see the few big currency pairs, I'll talk about what we're looking at in terms of expectations of US numbers and not to mention the Canadian number as well. Canada often gets, can often get forgotten about in all this. So taking a look here is the German market, keep in mind, the German market hit an all-time high in late January, and look at what we got yesterday and look at today's highs. So it really sums up how strong sentiment is, if we're not too far away from record highs in Germany. So what we had this week was Chinese markets reopened. With that, we had the PBOC, the People's Bank of China Injecting Equity, Chinese regulators turned around and what they did was put in restrictions and short selling, while they also did was put in restrictions on fund managers offload their positions. And then a few days ago, in the last couple of days, we've had the Chinese government coming out saying they've got to cut tariffs on $75 billion worth of US goods. All this has been designed to remove the fear from the financial markets. We've seen moves higher in Asia. We've seen moves higher here in Europe and in the US. It's, unfortunately, the health crisis is getting worse. But what we're seeing in the markets is that equities, particularly say in this case, German, are not too far away from record highs. So if we press a higher from here, we're going to re-testing the highs of late January in around 13,640. I'll be covering big indices, big currency pairs. So please feel free to stick your opinions and market requests in the box. If you do drift lower on the decks, we could be looking at, in fact, worse, 13,400, or perhaps this blue line here, the fifth and moving average, which is just south of 13,300. What I'll do now is I come on to the S&P 500 and see I think it's shaping up on that front. It was only yesterday that the S&P 500 hit an all-time high, which, you know, I think is the balance. It's a bit surreal, whereby you have this deepening health crisis, yet the S&P 500 is going on hitting another all-time high. So it really tells you a lot about the sentiment. So we're pressing higher. We're currently trading, we're expecting the cash market to open around 3,336. If we press a higher from here, we could be looking at re-testing the highs of yesterday. We could be heading towards 3,360, 70, so on and so forth. Any move to the downside, we could find support in around this area here, 3,300, a lot of consolidation in that zone. And even if you drop below that, look how the 50 moving average, this blue line here, acts as support nicely this day or last week. So that metric that could act as support yet again. I'll take a look at the Nikia 225, and I'll be talking about the currency pairs. So on the Nikia 225, what we're looking at, where is it now? Similar scenario to the DAX and the S&P 500, where by the market, in this week, mostly pulled back the losses that I'd incurred. It was quite a size of a loss that I had, but they were nearly all pulled back. So if you take a look here, you know, we could see here quite decent highs. So if you look at the highs of December, the highs of January and where we were yesterday and even today, where we were just currently trading, in the case, in around 23,800. You know, if you can press on higher front here, we could be looking at heading towards 24,000. 24,100 will be there, thereabouts at January high. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking at heading, approaching 24,200. So really, if you move below that, back towards this blue line here, the 50 moving average potentially could act as support in around 23,622. And a move below that could take us back towards this yellow line here, the 1,000 moving average. It sort of coincides with the kind of 23,000 mark, maybe kind of 23,086. I've had no requests so far in relation to Marcus to look at. So if you are content to listen to me talk, I'll just keep talking. Now take a look at Eurodollar now. Eurodollar in the last few sessions has been a lovely example of a downward trend. We've had a few lower lows and a few lower highs. So the market's been moving aggressively lower or back below the 1,000 mark. You know, depending on how the numbers come in, we could obviously, by and large, if it's a strong report, we could take us back down towards the lows that were achieved in early October in at one spot zero, below 109, one spot 0,879. And you get a move to the upside, could occur resistance in around one spot 10, but we'd really need to be getting back above this, say potentially that possibly this blue line here, the 50 moving average in around kind of 111. Or even the red line here, the 20 moving average, which comes into play in at one spot 1124. Before we kind of begin to think, you know what, maybe, maybe the downward trend has then come to an end if we're looking to get back above these metrics. But while we were in below 110, it's likely we could see further losses on Eurodollar. I take a look at pound versus US dollar. For me, the area to keep an eye on for the starting dollar is one spot 29. Basically, the pound at a great job higher to the upside on the back of the conservative party winning the UK general election. But since then, it's given up a lot of those gains. So you can see here price action has been a bit has been tapering off the last few sessions. We're still above the one spot 29 metric. If we could hold the profit, we could like heading back towards this blue line, a 50 moving average in at one spot 30, 72. Notice how it recently acted as resistance and support recently. So it could be an important metric in the future. A movie on that could take us up towards one spot 32 and a movie on that could have taken us up towards one spot 32, 84. Conversely, a strong job support from the US could take us back below one spot 29. And if you go below that, we could be looking at targeting below early November in around one spot 22, one spot 27, 68. The non-front apparel numbers are coming out. Aussie dollar, I will come on that in a second. I want to now talk about dollar CAD because the Canadian jobs support are coming out as well. And the dollar has been doing very well against the Canadian dollar. Why? Because the oil market's been hammered. China is the biggest energy port in the world. All the fears that China, their demand and their economy is going to slow because of the health crisis has really put a major negative impact on the oil market. And with that we've seen major move to the upside in the dollar CAD. So we've got levels. Last, you know, last year in November 2019, we're in a strong upward trend here. If you press on higher from here, if we have a good combination, you can have a strong US dollar and a weak CAD, Canadian jobs support, which would be a double value for the dollar CAD, which could take us on part, on part of the November highs. And then beyond that, it could set us up towards one spot 33, 74. Enhance the chart there for you. One spot 33, apologies, one spot 33. 47 will be the highs of October 2019. Conversely, if there are numbers that are impressive and head back toward this red line here, the tourty moving average could take us into one spot 32, 27, or perhaps this trend line here, which comes in play in around one spot 32. Now, quickly take a look at what's going on in relation to what to expect. The country, a good number of markets, what to expect the market, the market and the market calendar can be found under news analysis, third option down. So in terms of what we're expecting, hope everyone can see this OK. In terms of the actual payroll figures itself, we're expecting 160,000 jobs to be added in January. That'll be an improvement on the 145,000 jobs that were added in December. In relation to the unemployment rate, the jobless rate is on the floor. The rate is tipped whole steady at 3.5 percent, which is a joint 50 year low on the earnings front, which I'm keeping a close eye on. U.S. earnings are supposed to increase from 2.9 percent to 3 percent. They're the U.S. numbers. I'll take a quick look at the job, Canadian job support. They're going to be out in three minutes time, people. The Canadian unemployment rate is tipped a whole steady at 5.6 percent. The employment change is expected to show us here a negative reading of 15,000. The finer details will come out when all the details are out. We'll have the breakdown of what the figure was itself and also what the actual is it full-time jobs, part-time jobs on the Canadian front. Obviously, it's preferable to have more full-time jobs, a part-time job, but then again an increase in jobs nonetheless will be well received. You know, keep in mind earlier in the week, we had decent U.S. initial job disclaims. They fell to 202,000. And then whereas on Wednesday, we had a very strong U.S. ADP number. It came in at 291,000, absolutely stellar number, a multi-year high in terms of the strength of the U.S. jobs market. But this is all looking to talk about, but there is necessarily a pretty strong strong correlation between what's going on with all those individual ports. You can have a very strong ADP U.S. job disclaims and still have a weak headline, non-famperals and vice versa. I quickly take a look at Aussie dollar because there's no individual aggressive for that. ASX 200, I'll have a look at that and hopefully in a second. I haven't looked at ASX 200, the Aussie Australian stock market for a bit, but for a couple of sessions, but the last one I've been seeing is it's been broad recovery, it's been the name of the game. It's been a strong downward trend. The American dollar is doing quite well. The Australians under pressure because it has connections to China. So you can see that that is a strong downward pressure here. Notice how we're not too far away from the lows of October. So this zone here is essentially a bit of a support zone. So we break much further than the lows that were achieved in early October. We could be like having back towards zero spot 66. Any moves to the upside in Aussie dollar, we really need to be having taking off these highs here in around in around this level here at zero spot 67. Seventy numbers are coming off very quickly moves the head up towards zero spot 68. Just want to see what's going on in terms of where the numbers are coming out. The numbers are coming out in about 10 seconds time, folks. So I really need to focus on that. I'll hop down to further questions and comments when the numbers come out. But OK, folks, I'll be quite now five seconds. Right, the numbers are out. We're starting to kind of pop right now. A very strong headline number it. What we're seeing here is two hundred and twenty five thousand jobs around it. It's a very, very perspective number. US economists have often said any if they're adding more from 200,000 jobs per month that will keep the US economy gold. It's well above the one hundred and sixty thousand jobs that we're expecting in the previous month. And it's a decent I'm sorry. It's well as it was well above the expectation of one sixty and it's a decent improvement on the one forty five. On top of that, we take a look at the earnings component in the area that I think is very important. It increased from two point nine percent to three point one percent above the three percent expectation. Taking a look at the unemployment rate, it's not ideal. It takes a slightly higher off of the 50 year low from three point five percent to three point six percent. Overall, I would suggest this is positive. I would say this is a good job to port. And this, in my view, should put upward pressure on the US dollar. If you take a look at what went on over in Canada, we can see on the Canadian front that the employment change was positive. Thirty four thousand five hundred jobs were created better than expected on top of that in relation to the Canadian unemployment rate and managed to move down from five point six percent to five point five percent. I would suggest this is fairly positive for the Canadian side of things. So we've got a fairly strong US job support. We've also got a fairly strong Canadian job support. So we might anything, dare I say it before I look at it, I might say you could see a bit of a move to the downside in dollar cash. I'll have a look now at dollar cash and see what's been going on. See what the initial reaction is. Just seem to be a bit slow there in terms of the the charts opening up. What I've seen seems to be a bit of a slow day for the server. I do apologize for that. But I would suggest that this is by a large positive number. To be fair, a marginal increase of zero point one percent rise up in the employment rate in the US. I wouldn't have thought that is anything to be, you know, overly concerned about. It's just off. It's moved slightly above if, you know, just it's just picked up slightly from a 50 or high. The strong headline figure, it's a decent number, big improvement on the on the previous most number, better than much better expected. And what I really like about this jobs, US job support is the earnings to bonus earnings increased by up to three point one percent. Essentially, when Americans are in more Georgia, when the Americans are earning more, they tend to spend more. So with that, like I said, here, we're seeing a bit of move to the downside in dollar CAD. What we're seeing on the back of that, like I said, given how positive the run between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar has been in recent sessions, I think we're probably safe. There we go. I said, I said by large, it was going to probably dollar CAD negative and a household back of it. I'll take a look at a shorter time frame. I think we could see a bit of moving the downside in dollar CAD. I think the upward trend is very much intact. I think the US jobs market is in decent shape and the US economy is probably in better shape than the Canadian economy. But I think in the near term, we could look to head back towards potentially down around this zone here, down around one spot, one spot 3260. And you can refer the moves. I take a look now at the DAX in one second. So we could be heading back towards one spot 3260 and dollar CAD or potentially one spot 3240. Like I said, folks, this is a interactive webinar. So please feel free to shout out in relation to any requests you have. I would suggest that this job is by and large positive the stock market. The US economy is in better shape. The US Federal Reserve and Central Bank of the US last year cut rates three times. It made it pretty clear that they're not particularly keen, they're quite keen rather to sit and sit in their hands. I would suggest that they're not, you know, this is a good job support, but I wouldn't have thought that this is going to have much of an influence on the jobs and on their thinking in terms of they're probably go, this is a good job support for a content with the earnings component. The labor market is robust, but I don't think it's going to be, you know, they're going to be running off hiking rates any time soon, especially in light of what's going on with the health crisis in China. I know it's going around the world, but it's predominantly in China. I would suspect that they would want to see, find out what the kind of true kind of cost of the situation have been. Yes, I would definitely come to the Australian market next. We can take a look here. So we saw obviously a joke to the upside when the numbers came out. Then we saw a better move to the downside. I thought this was the very much initial reaction to the report. You can often get that whereby there's a kind of volatility in around it. Essentially, the lows of the session or the cash trading session has been here in around on the DAX 13,473. If you can hold above that metric, I think we could see further gains being made. I think it's a fairly good job support. So I think it should be positive for stock markets. It's a kind of final balance on it's good enough to add to full of sentiment. But it's probably not so good, but all of a sudden it'll actually alter the Federal Reserve's thinking in relation to what should we be doing? Should we be looking at the hiking rates? I really don't think it was that good. I'll probably give the report overall either kind of an A minus maybe a B plus in that zone. So keep in mind, we've come a long, long way in the last few sessions because of the strength of the rebound. So even if you do look to drift a bit further lower on the DAX here, I think we could see since Ford came into play in around 13,400 or potentially in around this zone here, north of 13,200. Up to the last few days, buying on the dip has been quite a popular strategy. So I think we could potentially see more of that because this was where we appeared to be ending weak on a negative note, but overall it's been a very strong week. And like I said, on the DAX, we're not too far away from it's all time high. Now if I take a look now at what's going on with the Australian market, the ASX 200, or as you call it on a platform, the Australian 200. Any questions? We've got about seven or eight minutes left on this live webinar. Any questions you have, feel free to just shout them out. If not, I'll kind of run through some of the markets again, Eurodollar, cable, and the likes. What I find interesting about the Australian 200 was that we've had a decent rebound here, which is obviously positive, and a gap created at the upside, we would suggest that a momentum is to the upside. But we couldn't really get above this area here in around 7,053, that zone. We can see here that this area of support from the market was quite strong. Since then, we've actually kind of failed to get back above it. So are they concerned about that? I would say that overall it's recently optimistic. But if you get back above that metric and then be more confident, we can look to retest the highs that were achieved in the kind of latest January. But even still, even if you drift a bit lower from here and go, move lower from down here, we'll still take this down towards the psychologically important 7,000. And even if you go below that, this area here in around 6,960, there are about actually a support on a few occasions. And to be honest, while we hold above these lows here, the lows that were achieved on the very end of this day last week, at the very end of January, if you can hold above those levels, I think we still got room instead of a chance of retesting the January highs. This is why I like technical analysis. Notice how the highs here of December are very similar to the highs that we're seeing in mid-December. We saw consolidation in that zone in earliest January. And then we find support in that zone in around 6,900 thereabouts in early February. So I would suggest that that's probably the most important metric to look at. I can absolutely have a look at gold. Well, we've another six or seven minutes left on this webinar. So please, don't be shy. Feel free to just fire away in terms of price action. I would suggest that this update is a bit on the negative side for gold. I would think that between the headline number being a well over 2,000 decent earnings component as well, I would say that this has put a bit of pressure on the gold market. While I'm just waiting for the gold chart to load up, are there any other markets anybody else would like to talk about the France 40? Yeah, take a look at what's going on over France. So gold, I've seen a lot of volatility recently. Basically, when this day last week, when equities are at the beginning of this day last week here this Friday and then going into the early hours of Monday, China drops a very fearful of the health situation in China. Then we saw a large move to the downside after we had the update, after it could be a turnaround sentiment because of the very different interventions from the Chinese authorities. So the market is still moving to the upside. I would have thought on a daily basis today this would be slightly negative for the report for the US dollar. But while we hold above this area here, the lows that were achieved in mid-January in around 1536, while we hold above those lows, I think we could see further gains to be made. And we could look at heading up towards, back towards 1590. We could all be on that because of psychology important, psychology important, 1600 and beyond that towards the January highs. I'll take a look now. At the France, I'll take a look at the France 40, the S&P 500 and also dollar yen. Just wait now for the so dollar yen is at a very good run recently, kind of heading up towards kind of another 110 area is pushing higher. Basically, this week has been very much a risk on week. So so assets or such as the Japanese yen, which is usually deemed to be deemed to be low risk. They have had quite quite a negative run. So we're seeing all so we're seeing higher. I want the dollar yen in a second what we're seeing here on the on the France 40. We can see that this particular week we have gained most of the we've regained a lot of the ground that was lost last week were comfortably above the fifth day moving average is blue line here. While we hold above that metric and also while we hold above it's going to cycle actually born 6000. I think we could see further gains he made. And we could really head it towards kind of 6100. They're there about the highest that we saw in May, January. You know, even if you drop below 6000, the fifth day moving average actually has nice support here and resistance here. So that metric has been important recently, therefore makes it more likely it'd be important in the future. But obviously there are no guarantees. And it's only really if I'm a decent move below that we could be heading back towards potentially 5900. I would want to be really worried about the fact that the France 40, if you take off the lows of early of basically Monday of last Friday. Shall I take a look at the S&P? Should it be the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones you'd like to look at? I'll take a look. I'll start off with the S&P 500. And if we were to look at the Dow, well, I'll come on down a second. My guess is that the movement on both markers will be fairly similar. Just waiting out for the for the interest upload. So keep in mind, we've had a few days in a row of yesterday, we had a few days of roll gains. Yesterday we had a we had a record high, a record close on the S&P 500. So the sentiment is clearly very, very, very strong. It's a so, you know, a job report like this, I would say would be good enough to warrant you know, a bullet sentiment in the U.S. economy. But at the same time, I don't think it's going to be changing the Fed's attitude to hike and race anytime soon. You know, the last time we, you know, we, it wasn't even that long ago. They cut for the third time in 2019. So it's almost as if, you know, they can cut at least until, you know, if they wanted to cut, they probably couldn't even until about June, you know, next year, because, you know, it'll be pressing, dropping in, I'd agree with this, but it wouldn't be exactly be very prudent to do several cuts in a fairly short space of time. It seems a bit odd how it just seems odd how I have no chart available on that. What I'll do is I take a look now on the Dow Jones and hopefully, and then we take a look back at the, at the S&P. I don't know, don't worry. Don't worry, and I haven't, I haven't forgotten, forgotten about that. I've forgotten about you. I'll be one of that in a second. Platinum, yep. I'll happily take a look at platinum as well. Once the charts get opened, I'll happily, I'll happily take a look at this. Yeah, like I said, folks, I think it's overall, it's a pretty good job support, but it's a pretty good job support. I think it should be, it should warrant positive sentiment for the U.S. economy, but I don't think it's, I don't think it's enough to kind of jolt the Federal Reserve and to look to hike your rates. So I don't think we're going to have any kind of interest rates hikes anytime soon from the Federal Reserve. It just seems a bit unusual that we're having such problems with it. I do apologize for this, folks, in relation to the, in relation to the charts. Don't worry, I'll take a look at a thought again. I haven't forgotten about the Dow Jones or Platinum. It's just, okay, so for some strange reason, for some strange reason we're having some kind of issues. I think it's basic to do it. The Wi-Fi in the entire building is a bit slow. It wasn't great this morning, the first thing in the morning, I noticed it's got a bit slower. And then of course, with that, we're disappeared to have issues that load in the charts. Like I was saying, I would have thought that this job support would be overall a dollar positive. The dollar has been getting decent ground versus the Japanese end in the last week or so or the last few sessions. And so with that, I do think we're going to see, we're going to see further gains on the dollar versus the Japanese end. I will look to have a look at Platinum. Folks, I am really sorry about this. I know you tune in for a live webinar to see the price action. One of my colleagues is just getting, here we go. Don't worry, the dollar end is also on the list. So Platinum, I did a video yesterday. If you ever tune into our YouTube channel and also some insights, I did a video yesterday on Palladium where I referenced Platinum. And we can see here, and I know from the top of my head, because I did it yesterday, Platinum, Palladium apologies. Platinum, what we're looking at here, hit nearly a three year high in January. It's at a pretty decent pullback. Got my support from the 50 moving average. And that comes to the play in around 954. If you could hold above that metric, I think the wider upper trend could continue. And we could be looking at retesting up towards the kind of psychologically important a thousand. And if you go beyond that, we could then be looking at retesting the highs that we saw in January. Conversely, a decent break below the 50 moving average. And also, which comes into play in around 954 could take us back towards the lows of mid January in at 945. And if you do have a decent break below this area here at 945, it could take us back to this level, the one with the moving average in at 929. Notice how they're thereabouts. It's awesome consolidation. It's awesome support to play from the metric in the past. As they always say, if the metric is important in the past, it makes it more likely it will be of importance in the future. But obviously there are kind of no, no kind of guarantees with that. I would look to do the Dow Jones and the Dollar BN and then look to wrap things up. Just be there, it's got a few minutes overboard, not to worry. So the Dow Jones, we can see here, the Dow Jones had a very impressive week this week in terms of the pullback. All the losses of last week, very much recouped. Record highs set yesterday, record close set last night in New York were a bit lower on today's session. Even if you do put a pullback, support could be found in around the kind of psychology born 29,000 mark. And even if you go below that, we could be likely heading to this zone here, 28,930 down to 28,800. This zone here, they're there about in that area. And then of course, if we're looking to push on higher from here, we could be looking at retesting the highs of yesterday. And then beyond that, we could be looking towards 29,600, 700 so on and so forth. And finally, what I'm gonna look at now before I wrap things up is the US dollar versus the Japanese yen. Once again, I do apologize for the slow broadband and in turn, the slow loading of the charts. Similar to stock markets, the dollar yen had a pretty terrible end to the month of January, moved aggressively lower, but conversely, it's like quite a good February. Dollar yen pushing to the upside. Fair enough, it's a bit lower on today's session, but then again, not a shock if you have one, two, three, four days of decent gains. If you looked at the press on higher from here, we could be like you're targeting 110. We could all be on that. We could be like you hit the target with the mid-January high of 110, spot 29. And if you go beyond that, we could be heading up towards 110, spot 67. I know we'd have to bet a ground today. I would have thought that today's report is dollar positive. So if you push on lower from here, even if you have a size of a correction, we could be like you're heading back towards this blue line here, the fifthly moving average in a 109, spot 25. I do appreciate you bearing with me today. I'd like to thank you for signing up to our webinar. It's going to be available on our YouTube channel. It's also going to be uploaded to the Insights section of our website. I'll show you that in just one second. Under the News and Analysis section, it is the second tab down, I believe. So Insights, and you can see it listed along here on this sidebar here. So for those of you who've tuned in to the live event, it's going to appear on our trading platform later on. I would like to thank you for tuning in to today's trading webinar. Please feel free to sign up for next month's webinar and have a good trading week and good luck.