 analysis please don't forget to like subscribe and share this video with your fellow trading colleagues if you find the information I provide every week useful and so let's get into the week ahead you can find it on TradingEconomics.com it's this box here came out 43 hours ago January the 16th and the week ahead zoom in a little bit so it talks about the in the US the spot that will be taken by retail sales producer price inflation that would be definitely keenly watched several housing indicators and earning reports for several big corporations also fresh inflation data will be released for the UK Japan Canada as well that's that's definitely going to be an indication as to what the central bank are likely to do with interest rates and monetary policy means will be held in Japan that's a big one and that's pretty much the currencies that we trade finally investors will be waiting for the fourth quarter GDP growth industrial production and retail sales for China as that sets the pace for you know how soon global growth will you know return which will affect you know a lot of currencies in different ways so getting on to some more in-depth fundamentals and technicals and starting off on the dollar index and a dollar index from last week we were talking about this being an area a significant area and really a kind of a turning point fundamentally as to you know whether price was likely to you know bounce off of this demand zone or you know continue falling if you remember you know last week if you go back to last week's video and you know basic basically prices fell and the reason why was not because we're in some sort of Elliot wave you know wave two or wave three or wave four nonsense it's really because of fundamental analysis and understanding that value for an exchange rate in a currency is derived from fundamental analysis not price action price follows you know the fundamentals and so bond investors right who are the smartest investors you know on on the planet some of the smartest investors because they have to really look ahead they have to look into the future to decide why they're buying you know two year 10 year you know 20 year treasury bonds or guilds these guys are you know got the money they're buying government debt and basically bond investors are at crossroads with fed pools in sites so inflation trend in sparks bets that rate increases will end in March yeah so open interesting treasury note futures swells in rally and so the emerging consensus that the federal reserve will raise rates only one or two more times has ushered in a new set of dilemmas for bond investors who now must decide which parts of the market will fare best under the circumstances and ultimately you know again we were talking about this last week and we talked about this for for the for the last few weeks and obviously I've been a had a buy bias on the dollar and I've actually changed my bias on the dollar but I'll get into that in a sec but if you want to understand why you know I changed my bias or I've changed my bias recently and understand really about inflation and how you know it affects interest rates as well as GDP I have some webinars on my channel if you do type in if you go to the search and type in webinar right this these the top two or these two videos should come up you know fundamental analysis webinar and how to forecast huge trends using for its fundamental analysis my most recent webinar watch those and that will give you a real you know solid foundation as to how to really kind of predict large trends in in the forex market why should change your bias really you know you're changing your bias on currencies and we're changing our current bias on currencies maybe once twice a year maximum right on the dollar I've been short I'll say short short on the euro dollar but I'm up in short on the euro dollar yes but long dollar from nearly two years right that's the only bias I've had fundamentally and you can look back on the on the euro dollar chart over the past you know year and a half nearly two years and you'll see the massive downtrend and so if you watch those two that give you a solid foundational understanding and talking about now my long dollar bias in the in our private discord members group on the I think that must have been the Monday yeah not sure the Wednesday when we have our weekly private meeting for the group I was talking about the talking to a couple of the guys who were and I was saying that we're in an interesting times and you definitely want to watch the recording because Dr. Ninja couldn't make the the Wednesday live call and I said lots to go over guys said I'll give you a sneak peek I'm going long on the euro now and there was a lot of mines being blown right because you know the guys in the group have known that we've been long dollars for so long you know the change in the bias you know can be you know a bit of a of a change right if you get used to buying something but again we have to be you know flexible in our thinking and so I'm going to release as well a trading video or Wednesday's call matter of fact the 11th of January and again this is a private call which is for private members only I'm going to release this video or parts of this video to really kind of show you in depth what I was talking about with the guys and this is analysis that really is just exclusive for the for the guys in the group and this is just one of the the training pages as you can see I've got you know hundreds of videos hundreds and hundreds of videos going back you know three four years probably if you remember and in this I will explain and I break down to the guys you know why the euro is now a long and and also as well things like hindsight bias etc etc and so if you do want to be a a member of the trading 180 group when it opens I am opening up the enrollment in 21 days a 6th of February and I'll only do it for about a week so I'll do it from the 6th to the 10th which is you know Monday to Friday and it'll be your opportunity if you're looking to join to really kind of learn the fundamental analysis a lot of people tend to you know look at you know just price action to predict price and really you're flying you know blind really and it's just a game of luck if you're just using you know price action you want all the probabilities in your favor and smart money use fundamentals so why wouldn't you right why wouldn't you use fundamentals and also as well just one of the things that you get access to is a fundamental analysis spreadsheet so this was is our is our spreadsheet that we use to decide on where we want to go long or short this is my bias that I I provide for the traders you know whether I'm long or short or neutral right because not every pair is to be is to be traded so this is my watch list of of pairs as well when you get access to all of this and understand you know really why we're going long or short on pairs or why we're not even trading pairs right and that is the guidance that you'll get by joining the mentoring group so heading back to the dollar index my bias is now short right my bias is now short on the on the dollar and that again was due to really inflation coming in you know lower than expected again a bit of a trend when it comes to inflation that's not to say that the dollar won't pull back at some point of course it will but I think the market now is accepting the fact that we're probably likely to go a bit lower on the dollar so any pullbacks on the dollar are probably shorting opportunities also as well inflation is still to be watched because in fact if inflation still does tick to the upside right if it still does go higher CPI core inflation then in fact and it's seen as trending higher then potentially the knock on effect of that would be you know fed will continue to hike rates and then we could get all high rates from have increased their rate hikes and we could see in fact the dollar still you know kind of pull back a little bit more than anticipated but these are really the zones I'm looking at in terms of you know just dollar index looking at dollar index and I think probably the the 105 so we're going to be a really or one of four is going to be a really nice confluence for short trades on that dollar on you know pairs like the dollar yen dollar swiss dollar cad etc so that's really my bias for now for the foreseeable future at least for the next quarter or so but again it is data dependent moving on to the dollar yen and again dollar yen I am actually long on the yen got into that pound yen trade I was telling you guys last week kind of broke down a few videos last week and in fact if I go to again my home channel right and if you go to the videos section and it was really broke it down as far as our bank short the pound in 2023 and also will the bank of Japan cause 100-bit move a thousand-bit move sorry on the yen right so pound yen that was the trade idea and if you go to the pound yen you'll see what happened this week and I got right at the top and as many as well as many of the the group members as well but we're talking about the dollar yen and this is really now where the supply zone is again I think with the with the yen dollar weakening the yen looking to strengthen in fact yield curve control monetary policy changes on the horizon the potential for one then we have you know this scenario which is probably the one I'm looking towards and then if you are looking to get long on the dollar right then next demand zone is going to be right at the 127s in fact the there's calls for the for the dollar yen to actually this year reach the 120s so if you think about where we are 127s that's at least about another 700 pips of movement to the downside potentially that we could go it's not going to be necessarily a straight move all the way down of course you know lower highs lower lows even higher highs higher lows within that lower highs lower lows and so let's see what happens just about looking at the right opportunities dollar Swiss dollar Swiss again not really a pair say a game but not really a pair that I'm looking to trade to be fair but we do have prices that now come down into this this lower demand zone again I think you know from a technical analysis perspective it's probably looking at you're looking at buy trades there or you're looking at probably sell trades around at 94 50 or fresher areas of supply around in 95 zone not looking to buy the dollar or the Swiss dollar CAD again with the dollar being weak and potential for zero covered policy helping commodity currencies now we're looking at these areas of supply for looking to buy the commodity currencies against the dollar this isn't really a pair that I am looking to looking to get interested in but there's reasons why you you know probably could get really get interested in this and buying the Canadian dollar I think for me I think a deeper pullback would be the one three sevens would be probably the best area to look for any kind of short trades if you're looking at short trades and buying a CAD over the dollar if you're looking to buy the dollar then maybe from now down into the one three twos before looking at getting long and possibly even down to the one three ones before potentially getting long right there moving on to the New Zealand dollar US dollar and yep so we did again from last week drawing out the zones prices did actually come back down into this area the one 0.62 near the round number you know is 61 sorry I did actually go beyond the 62 area and then you kind of bounced off of there and that was obviously driven by CPI so again if you do want to get long and buy the New Zealand dollar on against the US dollar then you're looking for deeper pullbacks into the 0.62 area maybe 0.61 90s 80s to get looking look for long trades if you are looking for short trades I would suggest probably looking at again the higher zone this above the 65 65 50s for any kind of short trades you could buy the US dollar the pound is a very interesting one so again just we've got some dollar weakness but we've also had a bit of a pound good news I am still short on this pound but I think they may avoid a technical recession data came out for GDP which was better than than expected and it says what recession UK consumers and business signal optimism so card spending data and investment intentions remain resilient stronger demand could keep up pressure on the Bank of England to continue sorry continue to hike and so Britain is weathering the worst of the cost of living squeezing memory better than indicated by dire projections for a catastrophic catastrophic recession and so yeah it's recent data recent warm weather has come out and and I think there was an article I think it was on it wasn't I must have closed it but basically it was talking about the World Cup being a being a marker of let me see if I can find it one second no I think I must have closed it anyways it's talking about the World Cup boosting World Cup spending you know drinking going to the pub etc boosting spending a public spending boosting a retail spending boosting the GDP right and helping to you know keep GDP so warm weather some decent GDP numbers that came out and so maybe the the UK isn't as bad as first thought but I still think they're probably the worst of one of the worst anyway of the of the currency so I'm going to continue shorting the pound but now I have to kind of adjust my downside targets because it might not fall as as far as expected so with that being said the pound really hasn't moved that much against the the the dollar considering you know the dollar weakness since EPI so there is actually I think an opportunity to go short on that pound at up at the one two fours and that's actually a decent opportunity if I'm buying the dollar against anything it will be against the British pound so that's you know where I stand if you're looking for any kind of buy trades then and buying the pound against the dollar then you're looking at a pullback into that zone there and in fact there is a demand zone right here right demand yeah and so any kind of pullback into this area here I think is decent or the lower end I would say it's definitely the best area the 119s, 118s, 60s I think it's probably the best area to look for any kind of long trades if it can pull back um Euro dollar so Euro dollar again the switching bias after you know a good you know two years of going short right so we're in 2023 you know we were short from I think around February 2021 so you know we've been short all this time yeah um on the on the Euro or had a short bias at least and just been really been buying on lower highs and lower lows that's all we've been doing and now it's time for a you know long bias on the dollar for now sorry long bias on the Euro for now and um one of the uh one of the triggers was when I saw this was that Goldman no longer sees Euro area a session as it lifts outlook so regions economy is now expected to expand 0.6 in 2023 ECB still predicted to raise the deposit rates to 3.25 by May and so um because they're not heading into a recession anymore and uh the US is isn't doing as great in terms of um hiking rates and they're looking to end their hiking cycle sooner um again you see Goldman Sachs now says the Euro area will avoid the recession and this is what the new data is pretty much pointing to so the new forecast is for actually better growth now so rather than you know Q1 being in a contraction now you've got actually growth going on so for me um the Euro uh is you know a a buy for the foreseeable future of course if the data supports that then great right so for me I'm looking at pullbacks into demand zones um of some sorts again this is not financial advice just you know telling you what I'm doing and what the group are likely to do and so that you know any kind of deeper pullbacks no one knows whether it's going to reverse there or there or there but the point is is that you know that the bias for me anyway my bias is now to uh go long on the uh the euro for the foreseeable future and so um again hopefully if the data plays out then that's going to be a very lucrative um uh trade idea and so also as well we have euro rally may have more room to run as ECB takes hawkish baton from the feds of single currency set for best week against the dollar since november and ECB hawks mild weather and china reopening bullish case uh build bullish case so um again um 120s if that's one of the targets that's at least you know we've got about a thousand one thousand two hundred one thousand one hundred pips to the upside right so that's you know way somewhere up here this prediction does you know come true uh lots of upside potential again no one knows whether it will whether it won't but ultimately um if that does come true um and there's obviously a case support in that then um this is how you predict um long-term trends again it's not some silly elliot wave uh deciding where price is going to go it's you know the the smart money who um you know look at fundamental analysis and determine the value of a currency um so that's where we are with the euro dollar again any kind of short trade you're probably looking at now but for me my bias is to the long side you um Aussie dollar um again for for the uh if i'm shorting the the dollar as well one of the commodity currencies that's top of my list is to buy the Australian dollar i really am looking uh getting bullish on this so any pullbacks into uh demand zones for me are going to be buying opportunities i've got a you know you've got a stack of really a big stack of uh demand zones and it's not necessarily the nicest you know think to draw such a wide zone but how you would kind of break that up one of the ways you kind of break it up is to look for any kind of support and resistance major levels of support and resistance within that zone and that looks like um there's one of them right there somewhere around there where you've got you know areas of support and resistance so i do think that coming down to that 6750s it's going to be quite nice or even lower if there's a you know um if prices do pull back and do a deep pullback or give us a deep pullback then i think um anywhere around there's going to be quite nice as well 66 areas um and this is really driven by um you know the world global um growth reopening uh Australia being um a beneficiary the major one of the major beneficiaries of China reopening right uh Aussie yen um a tricky one a very tricky one uh when it comes to trading it's not on my list of things to trade anymore and um but if you are looking to trade this i think you know if the yen um and the bank of bank of Japan are uh are going to change their monetary policy i think that's going to be really the the driving factor with the with the uh with the Aussie yen so if i had to choose a bias it would be uh to the downside you can see again fresh area of supply prices came up and uh really a really nice trade if you were looking to trade that technically um i think if you are looking at getting short here um it's not necessarily the best uh trade to get short or best area because you know first touches of supply or demand zones are really the best times to get uh long or short um you can see here there was a demand zone of course and prices came back and then price went to the upside prices went back came to the downside right so this is where value um establishes itself first touches and so um for me if you are looking at getting long or short again just be cautious that you know these areas have been touched you know several times or once already so you know the the weaker it becomes so probably looking for higher levels um for long or short trades but again personally i'm not really interested in the Aussie yen for now of course if you're going long um that 85 would be the uh definitely a nice fresh area of demand um but you have to really be bullish on that Australian dollar and really bearish on that and like Japanese yen and finally the uh gold right so gold is again just benefited from um dollar weakness and is likely to continue to benefit from dollar uh devaluation um and the Fed not hiking as much although inflation is coming down uh i think there's probably you know talks with recession as well and so the the recession talk um although i do think that um you know other economies are like to go into a recession first um the recession talk seems to be hitting the dollar a lot more than others and we've just seen that again the euro is likely is less likely to actually enter into a recession so in fact that benefits um that benefits the um uh the dollar um well it benefits the euro over the dollar and um but gold i think personally just from a risk perspective central banks have been buying gold for um in record numbers for a while now so for me again i'm just looking for uh pullbacks not necessarily looking to trade gold um just buying golders and it's an investment i've been doing that um for a while now anyway so any pullbacks into these areas for me are buying gold buying opportunities that's not out of my bias but if you're looking to trade these areas then yeah these these these are the zones that you're looking at getting long anyways guys um that's it for this week i hope you enjoyed it and um thanks for all of your messages i will release again uh this video i had on wednesday in-depth analysis probably i don't know maybe tuesday or wednesday i think um and it won't be the whole video because the whole video i think is how long is it uh an hour and 23 but i'll probably chop it up give you the the um some of the main bits of course i can't get everything away uh because that would be unfair on the people who are in the group right you know can't get everything for free um so yeah but uh it'll be a really good video for you to really kind of learn um you know how to kind of change your bias what to look for etc etc anyways guys hope you have a great trading week don't forget as well that the enrollment starts on the 6th of february so if you do want to join and learn fundamental analysis um and apply it to your technical analysis um then um yeah it's coming up soon anyways guys take care