 Let's get over our mammoth to Tim orders who do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour And don't forget folks. You can get hold of Tim every trading day at odd dash oracle calm That's odd dash oracle calm Tim or what's going on brother? Well, it's kind of interesting here. Yes We got out of our long edition last Friday in the market kind of went sideways and yeah, I tried to break out today Actually, just let's go to chart number one. Okay, I have it. Yeah real quick. Yeah Yeah, this is it you gotta really kind of look at the bigger picture what's going on and Anyhow, the bottom window is the 10-day average of the trend next window up is a 21 day average That's like a month. Yes trading days a month the one above that is a six three-day average, which is like three months, right and When all three of those get into bearish territory, which is that Pink area at the bottom I can see it of each deal. Yeah, so all three of them got there about you know, probably Look like the end of June or sometime in June. I may be mid-June or something like that So you kind of be careful. They have markets still move higher, but I've listed at times in the past When those all three reached those various levels and that's red lines down from the top, okay So sometimes they're right on the market. Sometimes they keep moving higher, but all of them really come near highs The last one we had came in, you know, it's like about December January of 2022, right? So it was a little bit I guess a little bit late pretty much right on the money But it kind of stayed bearish that was kind of a big warning that there was something developing And so I was kind of looking at and also I was kind of looking at, you know, we're running into the February March April of 2022 highs also right at this 460 range, right and so I was kind of looking for excuse to get out So that that kind of helped me out flip to chart to think I get a question for your first time, right? You know years ago, right? You know, you only looked at the 10-day trend, right? So did you pick up? Well, I mean, I know you how much work you do on the market in general, which is awesome So did you just just decide that hey man? I had to do more work in this trend because what happens folks is that the average trading days per month is 21 days That's why I'm suspect and you know, you got a month and you got three months for just 63 So how did you get to that level? Why did you say why did you do that? Well, it's actually I started to screw around with a hundred a okay And a hundred a didn't really didn't do much for me then I see and I started thinking, you know You got to look at the bigger picture. Yeah, once you hit these targets, you know You're going to get some resistance because you the right when it went in, you know The 10-day the coiling day and the six three day all get kind of doob, right now There's all get embarrassed territory. Yes, you know the market just runs out of fear to the upside The market goes up on fear remember Joe Granville. Oh, yeah, we said the generals. I love them. Yeah, yeah Yeah, I don't know we're still alive, but you know, he said that the market rallies. Well, it's his term This is another word for fear, but anyhow the market goes up on worry. Yeah that way, okay, right? Yeah, I can't remember the exact. Well, yeah, he passed he passed away. He did pass away Yeah, but I you know, he's funny. Yeah, I not funny. I had him on a boat Well, maybe a year before he passed away. Yeah, yeah, yeah, great guy. Yeah, he was he was yeah, I Actually went off the subject a little bit, but I was living in Denver at the time and one of my clients and I were He wanted me to go to his Seminar yes and Anyhow The whole place was packed was probably about 500 people in this room Yes, and I forget what it was like a hundred bucks to get in stuff Yeah, anyhow, it was like a two or three hour and all he did was on this stage He had a puppet and he put this puppet on his knee and all he kept saying was the market needs fear the market needs Need to be scared and all this other stuff. He said that for about two hours. No indicators. No screens No, no, nothing else. Wow that and did you play the piano fly it? Huh, did he play the piano because he played the piano, you know, I You know, you might have been so long It was really wild, you know and but but the guy, you know, he was right on the market So and whatever, you know, it's whatever makes sense We get it. We get it cool So anyhow, but getting back to this this is kind of that that same scenario. Yes He really did have a he more like felt the fear, I guess and so I put it in terms, right? Defining what fear really is sure and that's the you know advanced decline and volume type indicators And this is one of them. So the more fear you got The better it is for the market to drive higher and you don't have any fear or you know They always talk about Complacement, right, you know and this kind of denifies that doesn't really know it does me exact Yeah, you know, they're pretty close. No, it does. Well, you can see here folks with this does this is saying for three months Okay, when you get that trends that no one was paranoid at all. That's like, hey, we're gonna buy the market Hey, we're gonna buy the dips. They're gonna buy everything. So that's a long period of time There's no doubt about it, man. Yeah, right. Yeah, so So, you know, that's so I know we're getting close and I know we're running into Hi, actually, what was your question? I Know that you answer it because you went to the hundred day and then you start bringing it down I'll do the 21 day in the 63 days a hundred day didn't do anything for you. I get I get it I just was curious because I could see that you were going month by month because of the 21 63 So that makes sense because if there's no fear for three months, well, that man That's a long time with no fear. So yeah, I'll jump to the next shot You're right. That's it. So you got people to complicate now, you know, you had him pretty, you know Barry should back in look like about April, you know, February April May everybody's kind of scared which is Going back to that. So if you go back to that six three-day trend reading you had a You know, like a 1.1 on the trend for three months in a row That's quite a bit of fear on a six three, you know, a three months time frame Okay, that's reason why I kind of is bullish in that time frame. Yeah, you know, everybody was kind of scared. Well This really identifies what's public thinking, right? You know, if they're scared that trend's high, right? And if they're not scared that trend's low exactly. So exactly Sonya That's how I kind of define it thing. Nice. So you really are standing on the opposite side everybody else When you look at this indicator, right? And that's where you want to be exactly, right? You got you got to be where the smart money is I guess. All right, so Sonya, we go to the next chart. Yes, I have it up and This is anyhow, this is where you can see a little bit better And so we're testing the March of or actually February March in April 2022 and we're running into those highs there and When I put this chart out to you yesterday or today this morning The next window below the SPX chart. Yes, is that SPX VIX ratio and actually at the time It was making new highs which wasn't a bearish if you look at it now, it's making lower highs There we go I like it. Yeah, so it's just starting to diverge now I think you're too quick to go short here Okay, if you look at today if you look at today's volume, we're probably gonna draw a bearish and golfing pattern Yeah, yeah, just stay we're gonna have higher volume today than the last several days Just stay there Tim. The high is gonna be tested. We're gonna quick break Tim We're gonna be right back stay right there folks Tim and I come right back Welcome back folks Tim or Tom O'Brien. We do appreciate you go rowlin and prowlin with us out here We are looking at a a chart right now. Don't forget folks all these programs are archives So if you happen to be in the car listening, you know, you can pull these up at night You can see these great charts that Tim sent over So right now Tim I have the S&P chart up All right, so chart number two. Yes, chart number two All right Well, I think I really this is kind of that makes a little bit more clear I guess you might say that you know, if you look at the Marker the February March and April of 2022 You can see it there. You know circled in blue there You can see we're running into that resistance area. Yes, and so that's kind of it You know the VIX when I sent this over was pretty low. It's starting to rise now So a lot of things changed this morning, right and But the second chart up is that SPX VIX ratio, right? It's time I sent it over is making new highs So I didn't think was gonna break out, you know, I was hoping it would pull back and it's doing it But that ratio now is starting to make lower highs even though the SP is made higher high So that's starting to diverge But you know before the right before the break there I said, you know today's volume fry going to be pretty high today Oh, and it's a bearish engulfing pattern, but high volume highs Almost always are tested. Yeah, especially on a daily basis. So I bet at some point Today's high is going to be tested. Let me let me set up the Central next trade next let's just go to chart three. Here's what I'm thinking What's what's really going to happen over the next three months. Okay? The wordy reason why I say in the next three months We're into the period of the weakest quarter of the year as starts in July runs at October And that's kind of another reason why pull back my bullish horns. I'm still bullish I think there'll be a decent bottom sometime probably in late September or October Where the market will rally all the way into year in between now and you know, October I think things can get a little messy and what I'm thinking what's happening here Now this is a monthly chart of the SPX and I kind of took some shortcuts here But yeah, we only did a 5% retracement going into the October of 2022 below. Yes and so if you only do a 50 cent retracement at the minimum you should at least go back to the old highs right the minimum and a lot of Times is a halfway point of the next move up which gives a much higher target. Okay, what I'm thinking right now Is we're running into that the February March April 2022 Trading range there and we're hitting that trading range. So I'm thinking we're gonna You know hit hit the top of that trading range, which we did what you're doing right now And we're gonna pull back to support. Well support is around what I'm calling the neckline there Which is around 420 because that's where the previous highs were So we had a sign of strength through the previous highs that science drinks become support At the previous highs and previous highs 420 So I'm thinking what we're gonna bang around between 460 420 over the next I don't know several months, you know a couple of months Yeah, and create what I think is it going to be a right shoulder of a head and shoulders bottom and a right shoulder And left shoulder use a symmetric in time. Well turns out we got three months of Yeah, the worst quarter and that left shoulders. It has to be three months. Look at that Putting it up right now is just speaking to the right shoulder right now. You know, I can see that I'm putting it up right. It's just speaking right now. Pretty cool, man. Yeah Yeah, you know, this is putting cart before the horse. No, I'm with you. Yeah, I got it That's a good trade. This would be I mean if that scenario comes out. That's a beautiful trade market, man So, yeah, yeah, it will be well I haven't done that a specific yet because you take the bottom the head up to the neckline Which we're setting up the neckline right now, right and you add that on to the neckline, you know The market could go quite a ways higher So here's another interesting statistics 74% of the time going forgot what data was I guess least back to 1950 Could be back all the way to 1920 but 74% of the time The mark is up every year 74% of the time That's a big number, man. Yeah, that's a huge number. So you really don't want to bet against the market It's up 81% of the time to count the if you count dividends and this is on the SP's So you really got to be perpetual bull market far as The equity market soon. Gold market on the other hand is just a trading range Right comes back down goes up comes back down. So they're too tight, but different markets Yes, but you you don't really want to bet against the S&P because 74% of the time If you're short, you're gonna be 74% of time wrong. That's pretty intense. That's a big number, man That's a big yeah, it's a pretty big number not bet against it, but Um, but you know next year if this turns out to be a head and shoulders bottom You know and say we bottom in october around that 420 area You know, you you're talking a market that is is going to be Yes, it's party time because I I did the rate the the number there is 110 to him. So that would be uh, five, uh 425 530 Well, you get it on to 460. That's where the neckline is 420 sport Okay, okay. I got it. Yeah, okay, right, right. Yeah, wow. You add it on to the neckline head To the neckline 460 110. That's what I had. Yeah, right So 570 Party time Yeah, that'd be a good party time and all and get back to this monthly chart If to get that 420 as support As support you always see panic if you don't see panic, it's not a support So what I'm saying is All those trend readings, you know the 10 day the 20 or the 21 day is 63 day You should see quite a bit of panic right around that 420 area So when we get there and the trend's blowing out along with the ticks, you know, it's going to be support You know, it's so cool. It was so cool folks is that now we know what the number is to look for. I love these Deals Tim when you know, of course, we're all speculating but when you speculate you actually have a number And you know, we know that the last time that we came down, you know, the the fear went up Very fast, which I can see it go up very fast. I mean it went up You know, it's interesting today. It didn't really go up in the trend or the tick But the bottom line is that man, it was like a razor blade. It just kept going south, man You know what I mean? So I was like, okay You know, they get a couple more days like this. I could pitch the exact same thing happening. Do you know what I'm saying? and then Then we go test the highs again because the high volume high then you fall apart, right? Then it's like, okay, you know So it's yeah, then then you start falling apart Um, you get things, you know, it's just kind of a waiting ring But anyhow, so as we're going along with our interviews over the next couple three months here Yes, when that 420 shows up on the spx You know people should be jumping out. Well, I'm not jumping out the windows, but You know, you should see that trend. I'm mostly high right around that range. Yeah So that would be a high confidence trade right to put on, you know So we're we're not going to put the trade on the breaking of the neckline You know, like we they say in the books, you know, we'll be buying at the bottom of the Well, I think it's a potential bottom of the right shoulder, which is that 420 area, right? So right It'd be a good trade too. It's uh, so if we got panic at that at that number, I mean Your confidence goes up. That means you can put more money at it. Yeah Stay right stay right there folks. Tim and I are gonna be coming right back We're gonna finish up with the gold market. Stay right there folks Welcome back folks. Tim or tom ryan. We do appreciate your carol and a problem with us out here We have the now industrials down 258 mazix off 86 s and peas are off 32 Okay, Tim. So what would what chart would you like to look at? I wouldn't go to chart four. Okay. Here we go. Just a quick Access should point it out a little bit more on this chart But you see that if you look at the volume chart there right below the Gdx Yes, see that big finger out there that big volume day. Yes It happened. I don't know two weeks ago, right? I see it. Yep. I can stick it out like a solid thumb big time. Yep Yeah, like big thumb, right? Yep. So anyhow, we're there's a gap there. Yes, we're testing that gap today Right, there's no way we're going to get above that. So what I'm saying is we're probably finding support right here right now Right. This is cool. Look at the bigger picture The Anyhow the bottom one is that 18 day average uptown volume You know advanced decline and next one is up down volume 18 day average and And in a nutshell when both those indicators are above minus 10 the market is an uptrend right and This this was uh, I produced this chart. I don't serve it three four hours ago And we're well, we're both right around plus 10 Uh on both those indicators So it doesn't take out all the wiggles of the market But it does catch the major trend So we went just in my opinion We were just filling the gap that formed here a couple three weeks ago And we're testing that gap on lighter volume and you got both indicators well above minus 10 Um, so I'm thinking this is probably support and probably just an abc down here And this is lake c of a abc type thing. So yeah, I don't see any big danger here. I'll put it that way It's just uh A little bit of a shake out then I think we'll we'll continue higher wish the gold market loves to do Yeah, that's what it's supposed to do The equity market is probably going to be Uh more of a trading market sideways down type thing And we're the gold market. I think some of that money out of the equity market is going to run the gold market So I'm kind of determined it And uh, so I'm thinking this gold market is going to remain Decent all the way into october or yeah equity market is going to be uh, you know back and forth all the way into october so How high highs uh, I got some other charts I didn't know how much time I'd have to present them. So I use one presented this one I got some other charts on gdx suggesting uh A move that's going to last a year maybe two years from I think it was a marked low Of uh this year So I thought there'll there'll be some you know declines along the way pretty big declines But not breaking new low declines right something similar what happened in may to july type declines That may take a month or two or three But in general the market will make higher highs higher lows over the next year year and a half year maybe two years So I'd tell anyone I love these indicators you have tim I can't yeah, I really do because you know what happens folks. Okay, what what tim does here, okay? And this is what's so cool is that you know you're putting a couple different Deals together. So there's not one deal that you're looking at and you know when you're a technician That's a big deal man because your probability goes up pretty dramatically man, you know and in particular We know that I mean other people don't use them which makes it even better You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah, I wanted You know that you ever notice on some of the market when a lot of these indicators out of these books That we all read if you're a technician, right? You know when when they all kind of line up, you know, they all blow up the same time Yes So we've kind of wanted to go something different than than what nobody else uses exactly if nobody else uses it There's there's You know that feels not crowded when it feels it's kind of crowded In an indicator chances are it's going to fail Right, and so I kind of went a lot of indicators that nobody really uses And so I stumbled around, you know trying to find ways Uh to look, you know what works what doesn't work and you know, so no for sure with this And you know, it's what's so cool is that the the you know, of course you've been doing it for a long period of time but Like so picture If grandpa was sitting there with uh, you know He probably intuitively just knew that it's fair and greed. I mean And fair and greed really runs the world to tim, which is amazing, right? You know what I mean? So Yeah, the reality is is that you know Once you can get understand that in the marketplace Well, it's pretty cool, man. You know what I mean? I remember listen. I mean, this is this is a crazy story Um and I have patience beyond belief now, but I remember uh We were speaking and what would happen in the 90s folks we were we were on from three to four And I had two other hosts peter and mark and we would be trading like banshees, man Because that was we had an edge then because we had an incident machine and all this stuff And anyway make a long story short, right? I remember the first time you said to me Um, we were doing something and you said, yeah, this thing wants to go down there, man You know, it's like, you know, two or three months. I said, yeah, two or three months. What are you talking about, man? I mean, you know, because because my gauge was like, you know, you know two or three minutes And once I caught on to that though, man You know your probability goes up a lot more because you really do look at markets differently Like, you know that that term about building cars building cars are so important in the market What do you want to go up or down? It really is right Right, right. You're exactly right. You know that that trading range we had, uh, you know, uh Oh, this year end of last year, you know what sideways for a whole year We were talking about it on your radio right when sideways from may to may right and So it's going to either go up or it's going to go down, right? You know and but you put you fill the trend in there Yeah with all that trend readings were high all in that level, you know, the your odds are extremely in your favor That's mark was going to bust higher right and uh, and you know, so It's still a hard, you know all trades are kind of hard. Oh, yeah If it started to be easy for you're doing something wrong. Yeah, exactly if and if if the execution You know, it's too quick folks, you know Not all the time, but if the execution is too quick, you know, if you have a hard time getting an execution many times That's that's that's a that's a good sign. That's you know, that's what it comes down to which is pretty amazing, man So Yeah, well, this is certainly going to be interesting on you know This little pullback here and see how this thing shakes out because I can definitely You know see the aspect. I mean we've already done 73 million in the spy And the first high that we hit a couple days ago only had 65 So we blew that away with volume for sure, man. Do you know what I mean? So it's like, okay Yeah, they'll knock all the shorts out of here probably on the test Yeah, you know, and maybe that test will happen next week. I don't know then uh, maybe we You know, we'll announce live on it or something. Yeah, we go from there. I think we're I think we're at simple I'm going to see 420 You know, right, which is not a huge decline, but no, but it's a good. It's a good trade man That's you know, it's old. It's it's a good few months Both. Hey, listen, I love little markets go up and down. I love consolidations because it's all big consolidations are beautiful They're huge man. Yeah Well, listen, man, you have a great weekend safe weekend, and I'm glad we look forward to speaking on tuesday, tim All right. Thank you. Thank you