 Ie, ddoron, oedd ymddangos iawn i ni wedi'i gweithio. Roeddwn i ni wedi'i gweithio ar y gorau'r morhaith, wedi gweithio yr holl ymddangos o'r hefyd erbyn y bydd ymddangos ymddangos. Ond ddod ddweud hynny oherwydd mae'n ddweud eich 15 a'r holl o'r holl o'r holl o'r holl o'r holl, eich ddweud oherwydd, ddweud i ni, oherwydd i ni wedi'u ar ddweud o'r holl o'r holl. ..dechrau eich gweithdoedd o'r gbadlau hwn ar leidio.. ..o'r chwarae sy'n rwy'n ddweudio'n byddol a ysgrifftadau... ..ydd gennym eu chlas o wahanol oherwydd mae wedi gweld iawn... ..y fyddoedd mae yna gweithio'r wneud. Ac rydyn ni wedi'i ar rysyn oedd sy'n ddymarfodd.. ..o'r gweithredu oherwydd ar gwaith y ddych chi gael.. ..ag oed alweithio'r ddaeth chi'n cael y rhaid. Mae'n gwirio bwyd i'r byddwch yma o'r gyflwywyr yn gyflwyno... and council's and whatever work you're doing and for you to contribute as well. It's about trying to move forward to whatever conclusions you're going to come to later in the morning and then think about where this goes towards Davos as well. So my job is simply, as two days ago, to keep that spirit going of you being engaged, of moving forward on these critical issues given an audit where we've got to, but also what is still missing even though quite a few people are not here oedd hyn yn ei ddim yn dda i'r panellysol. Rydym yn ymddangos o wybodaeth 4 o'r unig. First of all, ddiweddu'r ymddangos cyflawni ac roeddwn ni wedi'i gweithio i'r ysgol ac mae'r ddod o'r ysgol yn ei ddod o'r ysgol, ac mae'r ddod o'r ysgol yn y cyflawni ystod, yna ymwneud y byddwch yn fwy fydd, y bydd, ymwneud, y prospectau y fydd, y mwneud yn ei ddweudio i gyda'r wneud. Rhaid i beth yw rhan o'r unig air. Dillon yn rhan o'r risg Catastrofiol a'r agenda diolch 2015. Yn hynno, mae'r ffysgol yn gwneud yn cael ei ddodol, a wedi gweld i gael eu gael i'r eu cyfraffiad, ac yn ffynol, mae'n gweithio'r oesaf. Now, we're not gonna cover them all at the same time. What I want to do is layer it through the next hour and a quarter. But I want any ideas that you've got and already we've got some ideas coming up. We can show you the kind of areas that have already been covered in what we call the waterfall, there are some of the issues. You can see what already some of you have been saying. Whether it be Richard Bleward rwy'n de'i en, the tackling unemployment for all, forward looking emphasis on skills and governance, ymdweud ymlaen, y cyfnodd, y cyfnodd, y cyfnodd yn ffysgol yn y US yn y economi yng Nghymru? Yn y fwyaf o'r ffordd, mae'n mynd i'r ffyrdd, dwi'n fwyaf i'r rhan o'r rhan o'r ffordd. Felly, byddai'n gweithio'r mashein. Mae'n gweithio'n ddweud, mae'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio'n gweithio, byddai'n gweithio'n fwyaf o môl y mae'n gweithio'r mashein o'r ffordd o'r ffordd nad oed yn ddiwrnod, a mae'n gweithio o'r ffordd o'r mwyaf o'r ffordd o'r mwyaf o'r redyn. Dyma'r hwn o'r rhoi fel a chymiad a ddaeth ei bod yn ni, fel yw'r prosiect rhwng hwn o'r grannu, o'r mennyddio hynny o bobl yn y dddweud 4000 m late clipau o'r rhan o'r ffordd. Mae'n ei Goteth hoffi ynnig oed. Ond mae'n gynafech o'r idea a gweithio yn ymgyrchwowodus ac, y twelch chi'n gweithio yn iawn, gyda'r micrwfyn. Mae'r lagau o'rой fyniadau global, ond yn y gallu gennaethau, gweithio'n ei holl ydyn nhw i gyd. Gweithio cair o'r ddau dros y cwestiynau oherwydd rwy'n gwybod i'r gwaith, mae'n dewis i ddigon o'r Llyfrin sy'n rai'r pethau. Mae'n gweithio'r bwysig o'r llwylo o'r tyf expressedb o'r ffaith sydd yn y swyddfa ffordd ar gweithio. Felly, four areas, please send your thoughts as soon as possible. Let's move on initially with Charlotte Petrie-Gornicka. Your view, please, on youth unemployment. You've been chairing the Council on Youth Unemployment, seven billion and growing the numbers, where are the jobs, where is the employment going to come from, where is the work going to come from in future? Thank you for that very, very simple question to answer early in the morning. I can tell you that we need you to pay attention, take action and provide ideas, because we know there are solutions. We are optimistic but we cannot be naive and this is an issue which we cannot discuss as a future issue. This is a pressing issue here today. Let's not talk about young people being the future and tomorrow, because this is a problem that has to be dealt with now. Half of the world's population is under 27 years old. Many are unemployed. One of the problem is that we in the Council we actually don't believe that we have the facts right yet, because we know that the problem is all over. We know that there is large figures in sub-Saharan Africa as well as in my country, Sweden, which may surprise you. We know that this issue is in a way a global issue. Some of the solutions may be similar, but the context and the prerequisites are different. So, yes there are ideas, yes there are solutions, but what the Council has concluded is that we need to realise that we need to create jobs. We need the business sector to take not only responsibility but really see this as a responsibility and an investment, not corporate social responsibility on the side, but core to what's needed for the future, but apprenticeship and jobs fixed by the business sector is one part of the solution, but we really need to create jobs. So, for that reason we need to, more long term, work with how we educate young people all over the world. We need to build in transferable skills, soft skills, entrepreneurial skills in the curriculum. We need young people today that are already up and running, being the world's best entrepreneurs to get your ideas out there, because we need immediate action as well. We need businesses to take action today. Vocational training, we left that 15 years ago. I'm ashamed that we did that actually. We really need good trainers focusing on vocational training now. Our council has decided to try to work on three levels to inspire change. One is concrete actions where we want to improve models for entrepreneurship, models for apprenticeship, and spread them. But we also know that it takes so much more than good ideas and good examples. We need systemic change. We need business to be able to operate. We need young entrepreneurs to be able to operate. So we need policy on country levels. So we need country plans where government, business, education, NGOs and the stakeholders to come together and really decide on a strategy and implement that a little bit more long term. So the council is modelling how to create country plans. The council is also trying to see in what way can we influence the global policy where it's needed. And one of the things we want to do is to take the opportunity of the future Millennium Development Goals and focus on jobs creation and what has to be measured in the education system to really make education bridge to jobs. So we have a lot to do and we know that there's a lot of attention around the issue but I think we are in a place where we have recognised the problem. I also hear some pessimism. We might, we won't succeed if we are pessimistic. We must take action, be optimistic, not naive but we cannot discuss this problem as a problem of tomorrow because it's actually the case that young people in many years from now we will have a lot of young people in Africa and Southeast Asia. But the problem we are discussing are young people now and if young people are excluded, not part of the society, not co-creating the society, a lot of the other things that we will discuss on the panel today will be even worse than how we foresee those problems today. Good. All right, thank you. Now Beatrice, Celine and Valerie, do you want to come in at any point on this? Please do. There are plenty of people in the audience as well. But let me just pick up on this and we've just heard about development goals as well, Valerie. So maybe you would like to pick up on this. But there are some global shapers here. Can you get a microphone to the front please? Let's just pick up with your thoughts. Please get the microphone. Who's got the microphone? Two microphones. Vida, let's go from Mumbai and also Nafez as well. Please, is this the kind of thing which you believe? You'll come from Mumbai. There are major stresses there, big urban stresses as well. Is this the kind of language you want to hear? I believe that the job creation, yes, is required for the youth because right now the number says that close to 200 million people are employed by end of 2012 and another 200 million on less than $2 a year a day. So which is kind of 400 million is the number that we're talking about and the only way to bridge this gap between what industry requires and what actually the academic output is today. So currently I'm working on certain programmes which actually addresses this gap. I should just ask you, Charlotte, you talked about creating jobs. Is it jobs or work? It's both. We believe that we need young people, not only young people, we need people to innovate and build business themselves and obviously that is job creation for themselves and hopefully others but we also need big businesses to provide work. We want to move young people from the informal sector to the formal sector. Let me pick up on that because I'd like to introduce you to Nafez Dachach, you're 23, you're about to go to Jordan where part of the job you're going to have is about creating work jobs and new forms of employment. When you hear that kind of language, you hear the kind of discussion here, you're age 23, are you optimistic or not? I don't know if I'm optimistic, I'm probably not pessimistic but there are a lot of problems or a lot of systematic problems that we need to talk about. I love that you mentioned vocational training. I consider myself the education guy, I'm a huge fan of education learning. Indeed your card says I'm the education guy. However, I think one, we have this whole, I think Sir Ken Robinson talked about in his TED talk, education inflation. You used to need a bachelor's degree, you were guaranteed a job, now you need a master's and in some cases a PhD. So this emphasis on vocational training and trying to find pathways to work that start maybe sometimes in high school and also understanding that with serial mastery, which is the fact that the skills needed in the job market change very regularly, you don't need one career path. So I think something I'd like us maybe to talk about or to hear more about is how are we going to prepare people to become more self learners, more motivated, how do we create that motivation? But do you feel that minds here are gripped by the enormity of the challenge not for a few years from now but a few months and a few weeks? Unfortunately no, I mean I think, I don't know Professor David Bloom is here, but one thing he talked about is the demographic dividend and we talk a lot about 100 million youth in the Middle East and we usually talk about that as a threat and as a challenge. But if you look at the East Asian countries, one thing that really worked for them is in terms of timing, they use that demographic dividend really well to spur their economies and move them forward. So my question is how many years or how many months or what's the time frame in the Middle East that we need to capitalize on that opportunity and that's the biggest thing that scares me. Charlotte, the time frame. Yeah, well I, very, now, and that's, it's a very simple answer, but I, I, we really need to fix this problem very quickly and focus all attention on it because we can see that the figures are increasing all the time and we know that these young people that we are talking about, they are old in 10 years from now or older. So let's say five to 10 years, but that takes immediate action to even talk about that time frame. A question here from Vladimir Vagola, number nine, Abdel. Can the strategic investments to training of specific skills? One moment, I pressed the wrong button there. Can the strategic investments to training of specific skills for companies change the situation with unemployment? It's up there. It's part of the problem or the solution rather. Yes, if, if we take one example, we have companies that are, they bring their own people into a country where they operate because of lack of skills in country and that creates a problem short term and long term and if a company instead of bringing suede to another country, if they invest now in educating people in the country, they operate mechanics being whatever work we're talking about. If they do that now, they will create jobs for young people who need them in their own country and they can do that. And we have many examples of that, but it's not, it's, they are still the benchmarks and good examples. We need many more of those. Nick, Nick, can I make a point here? Please do. Yes, Valerie. Because one of the things that came up in one of the discussions I was in yesterday was a very clear statement that whilst we have a global economy, we don't have a global community. And I think that when we talk about these issues of employment and unemployment, we have systems and structures between countries. For example, with respect to issues of migration and so on, which actually constrain the ability to move. That's so true. Whilst we have a global economy that actually requires movement, skill development and so on. So there are some bigger issues here that we have to address if we are really going to fundamentally get to the heart of this issue with respect to youth unemployment globally. I think that really has to be put very firmly on the agenda and I don't see it there and I heard the same discussion and it seems to be the very radical potential solution even with all the electoral hang-ups about migration. Let's take a few more issues. The deal is here. We finish at 9.30. As I said, we're layering with scaling it. So I'm going to put a cap on this discussion of another five minutes and then move on to the other panelists as well. So everyone gets a fair hearing at the back please. Microphone. I'm Timothy Ma from Hong Kong. I'm not a young employer but I am aging because I see the market is out there. The growing emerging demand on elderly care of which provide a lot of opportunities to the young people. So I think this is a challenge and opportunity. In reverse, the young people, you know, the highest unemployment rate in Hong Kong is the young people who are not due to the under-supply weaknesses but due to the hidden young people characters that they hide in their home and enjoy the web world and even have no motivation to come out to work. And secondly, they also think that elder care work is a dirty job. So they try then themselves not to be linked up with but I see there is a lot of opportunities because the age, the globe is aging and the demand on elder care is also there. So I think we should link up the young people with the old people to create an inter-generation employment. Thank you. Thank you. Let me put several of the things which have been raised here Charlotte and also for the rest of the panel if you want to come in, not least because there are fiscal implications as well. Number 17, Jennifer McNally. What role in youth development programs like the global skills competitions play in youth employment? Regendry Gupta. Education needs to be redefined and transformed into skill education. Esther Dyson number 15, Esther, you sent two messages here. Education again is the key to solving every problem on the list. Adding in number 12, Abdul. What is a scalable startup, one that can survive the departure of its founder and that generates more value than it consumes? How can we ensure that more enterprises make this leap presumably into employment as well? So that's the kind of thread emerging in the discussion and the views from the audience Charlotte. I think we all need to recognize that education is key. Yes. And we have talked about that. We need to think through how we build in, for instance, entrepreneurship skills early in education, how we work with transferable soft skills and all of that. That is researched. We know that. It will take some time before curriculums are changed. So that's why the immediate combination of vocational training and the business action is needed now to do a bit of that, to fill the gap that is there today. Knowing that we do have more kind of global issues to deal with at the same time, I think that we need the business sector to commit a bit more than what we hear and see. I expect and hope that the World Economic Forum will do its job there because the World Economic Forum can really get the attention from the business sector and I really think that we need a much clearer commitment from the business sector in dealing with this issue. Interesting. Regendra Gupta came back and said, do we need a new WEF, a World Employment Forum, Valerie, building on your point about the big deal? Well, I think that we need the ideas, talent, skills, experience of the people who are engaged in WEF to be thinking around these issues on employment. I don't think I would want to pull it out and separate it because I think one of the things that has become clear or is clear is that there is an interconnectedness between the youth unemployment or employment agenda and so many other areas including education, including global development, what's happening in the financial sector and so on. So I wouldn't want to pull it out and separate it but I do think we need to integrate it into the broader discussions that we're having. Can we just have the microphone with the global shapers again? Let's go to Neda Mubarak from Saudi Arabia. Your view, listening to this discussion, you're from the investment authority. Does this fill you with a degree of optimism that things are moving, particularly the urgency? Absolutely. I mean just hearing all the discussion over the past couple of days, I think we sometimes forget to take a step back and realize that people really are working on this issue. If I can just add one idea, I would just say that many countries around the world are kind of wanting to attract foreign investment and just promote different investment opportunities. One big idea is to just work more with these big companies, the Googles of the world and just try to understand what are the skills that they need and then go back and work with the public sector and try to infiltrate the curriculum with those skills. So that's something, as a global shaper, this is something that I'm very passionate about and something that we're trying to work on as well. Thank you, Neda, and let's hear from Yaman El-Hajjar, who's 28, sitting alongside you. I like the points made with the skills being brought to the classroom because I do agree that often there's a mismatch in between the skills that are needed for the job, which is why a lot of people are out of employment. And I agree with the practical approach. So yes, changing curriculum in the classroom, but also having a practical kind of on-the-job training from an earlier age. We usually think of co-ops or internships as a college kind of activity. We don't think of it at a younger age. And I think just being in a professional environment, there are things that will pay back in the long term as these young students get into the workplace. They've learned from practical on-the-job training away from the classroom. But even before they actually get into university or the later stages of career. Excellent. Thank you. And Mark Spellman from Accenture. A real problem is quality of teachers. They're not keeping up to speed with the fast-changing job market. We need to look at excellence in teaching. At that point, I'm going to sort of cap the discussion, but Charlotte, you're just nodding their agreement. No, yeah. Yes. I mean, we know that when we look into the education system and what works, the teacher is at core, obviously. And we also discussed in our council that if we are truly believing in entrepreneurship and apprenticeship, we need to train the trainers and all of that. So it's really, really important. And again, it's so linked. We cannot talk about unemployment without education and without realizing that it's part of a bigger problem. So but knowing that, we also need to start to be practical and talk to each other on all these levels. And I think that's where I'm with hard work. I'm optimistic that we can do that. Beatrice, I would come to your own fiscal sustainability in a moment, but on this issue alone. Yes. I think one thing I would like to add to this tragedy of youth unemployment, which is particularly pronounced in Europe right now, where we have this. Of course, there is a bit of a measurement question. We measure unemployment very precisely. But according to all numbers, youth unemployment in many European countries is now at absolutely high record high levels. But one of the good news about this is, however, that things are happening that could make labor markets in the future more flexible, because these young people are actually reacting. They are trying to find ways how to move the learning languages, one of the main obstacles within Europe for moving. And I think what we need to think about is more also what are the type of policies that can support this, that can support if there is at the moment a high likelihood of finding a job at the place where you happen to live. But there is a good likelihood of finding it some few hundred miles further in another country that is, however, part of the same European Union, then these opportunities should be taken now. And I think thinking about policies that lower the obstacles to migration could also be something that is not only part of the solution, but of the short one solution, but also makes Europe ultimately more integrated I think this is a very important big idea which seems to be emerging, which we're going to have to hold for a moment if you don't mind or certainly for the next few minutes, because in fairness to all three of you who haven't spoken really fully yet, I want to move on. And we've got a lot of other points being made on youth employment and unemployment and generation of work. And I might come back to that closer to 9.30. But let's move on with Valerie Amos under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, a modest title you have there, a modest number of challenges. But in three or four minutes, Valerie, your summary of the catastrophic risks and the risks being faced, but particularly in the framework of 2015 and what happens after that? Well, Nick, thank you very much. And I mean, we've been discussing in the catastrophic risk council, particularly that as a world, we're not just facing challenges with respect to natural disasters and conflict, but we also need to think about issues, for example, around cyber security, nuclear proliferation and so on. And what we have is a world system, a global system which has developed over time, which is tried and tested, but which isn't necessarily flexible enough to deal with these major and deepening crises. All the data shows that with climate change, with environmental degradation, with the rising population in some parts of the world, deepening of food insecurity, that we have some major challenges that cannot be tackled just by the system as it is currently framed. And we can learn some of the lessons from the way that the development goals have been used. There's a degree of optimism, I think, around some of the global health issues and what has been achieved over the last 10 years. We focus very much on the things that still need to be done, but I share Charlotte's optimism that there are some things that we need to celebrate in terms of the progress that we've made. So measuring things and having a constituency that pushes the international community to actually deliver on its promises is absolutely critical. Building a much better and stronger partnership between national governments, the international communities and the private sector is critical. Clarifying who can do what best, how can we learn the lessons from that and how can we really shake up our system so that we are utilising the expertise and the experience that exists at both the national and global level. How do we help countries, households and communities to better respond to shock? We should be ashamed that we still have parts of the world that fall into famine every couple of years. To deal with that, we should be building the resilience of households and communities to withstand those shocks. We know that there are parts of the world where there's going to be drought and that there are going to be floods every year or every couple of years. How can we prepare more effectively? How can we support those communities and countries in that preparation? How crucially can we fund it? Only 4% of official development assistance is spent on preparedness as opposed to response. It is much more expensive in terms of the cost of human lives to respond after a disaster rather than to prepare for one and to help communities to deal with it. So these are transformational issues that we need to discuss. We need not just our catastrophic council to deal with this, but we need the thinking, the expertise of the other councils within WEF to really help us to grasp these issues and to forge what we think should be a new, more inclusive system that really brings the humanitarian response and the development community more closely together. You spend a lot of time talking to senior ministers right up to prime ministers and presidents about this challenge. What are your reflections now you're well into the job of the capacity of leadership to understand the scale of what you're putting on their table and their agenda and to deal with it and not shift it to one side and say we'll only deal with it when it happens? Well, I think that our leaders are so overwhelmed with the day-to-day management of crises be they economic or otherwise political and remember that I'm dealing with political as well as disasters all of the time that I think the kind of leadership that is required is not necessarily being seen across the world. I think that there is much more a focus on how do we manage our way out of this particular crisis when what we need is a longer term vision a longer term political vision from our leadership across the world and I don't think that we are necessarily seeing that at this point in time. But what does the political class face then? I mean, you can't go around training presidents and prime ministers. They've been through the system of being elected or being appointed. I mean, they are in that position yet they, as you say, are often overwhelmed and also the civil servants too who are serving them. But I think that one of the crucial things that we look for from our political leadership and I've been a politician myself. I'm now an international civil servant. But I think that one of the things that we look for from our politicians is actually to help us to deal with the challenges that we face as individuals and really helping us to understand the daily difficulties that we face and what can happen and I think that the discussion that was held on this stage two days ago said that there's been a retreat into nationalism partly because our leaders have not been able to put their heads above the parapet and actually help the people in their countries to deal with the impact of globalisation. And Pascal Lammy said the tank is almost empty when it comes to ideas and also cash. But I think that's what we're looking for. We're looking for our leaders to put their heads above the parapet a little bit. Not everybody is going to accept that leadership, that vision. But we are looking for more than just a day-to-day management of crises. We're looking to our leadership to actually help us to think about what is our world going to look like, what kind of contribution can we make and to really hear the voices of the people not just in their countries but more globally as well. I'm not saying that this is an easy thing to do. I mean, we talked this morning about migration and issues of immigration. I have a huge concern. I'm European. I come from the United Kingdom. I have a huge concern at the way that we in the European Union are looking at issues of immigration. If you look at the numbers of refugees and displaced people around the world and where they end up, believe you me, they don't end up in the European Union. They end up in other countries which are already challenged in terms of their development and so on. You look at countries like Tanzania on the African continent with year after year have welcomed in refugees from neighbouring countries. We have to change the nature of this debate and it requires strong political leadership to actually help people in countries to understand this. Let's get a few ideas. Do you want to talk on this particular subject? Thank you. I'm Mehnaz Aziz from Pakistan and I would like to draw attention towards our leaders and the state of education in Pakistan. The leaders have vested interests. They come from feudal class, etc. They are not able to fulfil the demand of the people in terms of quality education for all. We have a huge bulk of young, uneducated and unemployed youths both men and women who have been and more so growing and illiterate mother wanting their children to go to school where there are no quality schools available and children coming into schools and fifth graders not even being able to pass a first grade test. So, you know, are we going to miss the boat? Are we going to be part of global social responsibility because deeper engagement is required and it is beyond that of our leaders. It is an engagement with the communities because for these young, uneducated and unemployed terrorism is a possible employment. Right. So, what you're doing is actually making a link between what Charlotte was saying about employment and jobs and what Valor has been saying about risk as well. Do you see that connection all of you and please, Celine and bitches, do come in on this discussion because it does impact on your areas as well. The issue of leadership and leaders understanding what is needed not in 10 years but in 10 months maybe, Valerie. Well, I think it's I think there's a crucial point in that question which is if you don't have the national leadership that is helping to support the investment in things like education what is our responsibility as a global community? And I don't think that we have an easy answer to this and how we deal with it is not consistent because of course we have to make sure that we respect national sovereignty and national boundaries but at the same time I think we have a responsibility as a global community particularly as we have a set of Millennium Development Goals which are focusing on issues around universal education, maternal health, the eradication of poverty and so on. How do we encourage governments that aren't necessarily themselves putting the resources into areas like education which we see as being critical and which I do think is crucial for the longer term health of the world community not just in terms of minimising the risks to individual communities but in terms of creating greater global opportunity if you like, how do we encourage that? And I don't think that we necessarily have the levers at our disposal to do that and I think that the push has got to be bottom up rather than top down and I think that within Pakistan itself some of the bravery that we're seeing with young people who are pushing the importance of education, young women who are saying education is important for our development how we support those movements from outside is critical. No more than five minutes on this but let me put you what Chloe Langevin says a new model of leadership for catastrophic risk is to actively mobilise actors from multiple stakeholders and the business leaders alike and Jennifer McNally has reminded us what we were talking about and the number of interventions two days ago about this complex relationship between local, regional and global all of you again not least because of physical sustainability as well this balance have you come away from the last two days with the clarity on this issue of regional, local and international as well? Valerie? It's going to be different depending on what the particular situation is I don't think that there is any one model that I would say will work in every single situation but I would certainly say if you're looking specifically at disaster risk if you're looking at what might happen if there is a flood or a drought you have to start at the household and community level you have to work at that at the same time as you're looking at national and regional institutions you have to work on both Beatrice? Well, and I just on this question of local, regional or global I would very much agree with Pascal Lamé's initial statement that the energy not only the cash and ideas but the political energy for the global level solutions when it comes to establishing new institutions or rules is very, very low and it has been decreasing over the last few years rather than increasing and that's the one thing the one most worrying thing and of course it concerns not only catastrophic risk it concerns a variety of problems the one thing that we really and where I think a community like the global economic forum and the global agenda councils can make a difference because it's not bottom up it's not fully top down but somewhere in between where actually people like us can make a difference in calling for this and pointing out this lack of global institution building and will to do so that is emerging You've got the microphone I am heading an international organization in Vienna we are dealing with nuclear weapon test, tsunamis and earthquakes and the Fukushima type of... And your name is? My name is Tibor Tolt The point I would like to make is the following we need force multipliers force multipliers as communities international organizations business community and academia they are separated too many wars within the international organizations we have to change the way we operate 2.0 operating system we need to give you one example we as organizations are sitting on data we are sitting on information on potential knowledge we have to share it globally sharing organizations instead of intergovernmental organizations how we can do it and let me throw a challenge here in the last three years we started what we call as well massive open online courses each year we managed to double the number of participants right now we have four times the size of the organization in the UN intergovernmental organization system it would mean that in a year we could train half a million people there is no reason why next year we couldn't even double again one million people there are skills we have to bring in new notions of incubators incubators where we really pull together business academia and intergovernmental organizations we have to change how education is approached this is a 1,000 years old institution instead of curriculum moving to professions and moving to jobs we have to turn around the whole issue so a challenge there in the UN system we can train in a year one million people if we use force multiplies wow you're talking about a massive recalibration there let's get a couple more views please here and then there and then we'll go back to the panel then Beatrice and Selina as well on their particular interventions yeah this is Rajayendra Gupta see of centuries back you know when we had Darwin who was a sailor and you know we had Newton who saw apple falling and came with the laws which people have not even dwell more on so I think the education system was not there previously but people used to think about future and they could see things as naturally as they could I think we have become more theoretical now and degrees don't create jobs I mean most of us sitting here have not used our basic degrees to be here but our experience I think that should throw a big challenge to our system you see major school dropouts who created billion dollar companies and millions of jobs I think they have slapped the education system today so we need to actually look at that all right let's let's pause on jobs for a moment because we're talking about what Valerie was talking about with the enormity there there are two here who was further back who's got the microphone further back maybe not okay please good morning you're picking up on Valerie for the moment please in this section rather than talking about jobs because I wouldn't go back to that I mean my name is Ibrahim Tadros I'm global chair per from the Dubai hub my question is it'd be great if we have I mean even if we have very efficient institutions doing grassroots operations post trauma or post disasters but I think one of the main big elephants in the room is the current governance structure of world organization they're very handicapped by the way they're structured to be able to make decisions before it's a crisis like when it first starts Syria is a good example it's still going on or the family in Sudan I mean there's it's a governance structure so do you see that the world will come together at some point in the future to be able to change this governance structure to get humankind to a better place all right that's an important question Valerie first then Beatrice and Celine because this impact on those other areas of the fiscal area and also obviously with oceans and the Arctic and so on Valerie first of all you I think that the governance issue needs to be addressed in the sense of the political the political context in which we work so we have a United Nations we have a security council for example that's very focused on looking at issues of peace and security around the world we have a separate system that is dealing with humanitarian which overlaps in certain areas a separate system looking at development yes we do need to bring those together more effectively at the global level but at the same time I think that the issues around governance structures in nation states is also critical I'm very often trying to work with governments that don't even want to admit that they have a humanitarian crisis I went to Syria in March and the Syrian authorities were telling me that there was no issue in Syria there were over a million people at that time who were displaced it's much much worse now so there is a real issue that faces us as an international community when we can see that there is a problem in a nation state what are the levers that we have to really support the people in that country if their own government is not prepared to do that and this is not just in relation to conflict, violence issues around the protection of civilians which are critical it is also an issue in terms of the development arena if a country is making decisions about putting more resources I don't know for example into defence rather than this is a very obvious example rather than education and health they may well say to their citizens that our priority is your security their citizens might have a different view so these are issues that I think that we will continue to struggle with I don't think that our international governance system is right because it was established a long time ago but I still think that there will be some really tricky issues and problems that we will not be able to resolve Charlotte, quickly Quickly, I represent a governmental agency Sweden and we are a big donor we also have to think through the way that we act in the future going away from grants to big systems to solutions which embraces many more actions actors we have to combine loans, guarantees, new financial tools which leads to more sustainable solutions and responsibility by other actors than the donor and there are a lot of rethinking that we as donors need to do because we are not entering a donor recipient future it's about partnerships so we need to rethink the way we do things which I am very much looking forward to because I think it's part of the kind of respectful dialogue that we need for the future Thank you We're doing a number of handbrake turns here so let's move on to fiscal sustainability and then oceans and thanks for your patience but you can see where the dynamic and the energy has been so far so Beatrice, let's hear your views particularly your own engagement in the euro you're a former economist for the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank but on this issue of fiscal sustainability Yes, we've spent the last two days but of course not only the last two days discussing and thinking hard about this grand challenge as it has been called, you know, of fiscal sustainability and of course the challenge is that that there is actually fiscal unsustainability in most places of the world and yet the challenge for me is to that, you know, have also been asked by the organizers to please, you know, be inspiring and put some kind of, you know, more cheerful message at this early hour so let me try to combine the two of them a bit so we actually, we started out with the US so the US, the short message there is could be summarized as it's worse than you think when you look at a long run but it's maybe less dramatic than you think in the short run so we're talking about two concepts one is the long run fiscal gap which comprehends not only the existing deficits and debt but also the promises that are made within the existing social security healthcare systems et cetera that is the comprehensive measure of what actually will have to eventually be consolidated in order to be ffiscally sustainable well that fiscal gap is bigger than you think and that was one of the strong messages that came from one of our council members, Larry Kotlikoff who is sort of the grandfather of fiscal sustainability measurement and Godfather, I should say, of this whole area and has basically introduced this to the world so the fiscal gap in the US, according to his numbers is something in the area of 12% of GDP so that is how much consolidation would have to be done that's of course a very large number but then moving to the more short one which is what a lot of people are most worried about right now because we are, because it's imminent and that's the fiscal cliff well I mean I've been sitting in many, many discussions about the fiscal cliff and the people are quite scared that the US may actually go off this cliff this remember is just the fact that there are automatic large spending cuts and revenue tax increases that kick in if nothing is done if the Congress cannot agree on a compromise solution then by next year there is about 4% of GDP that come automatically off the deficit and the question is how harmful is this not only for the US, but also for the rest of the world and the message there seems to be according to the experts in our council that may not be as bad as you think yes it would, I mean if you go off the cliff and nothing is done you have a big contribution already to consolidation so you're solving the longer run problem and the short run problem would be probably a recession for a few quarters but not the kind of dramatic and catastrophic scenario that some people have in their minds now let me move on to the Europe area to Europe which is the second large issue that we spend our time on and that I guess everybody spends their time on if you want to or not that is certainly one of the things that are very much on top of everybody's mind so here how does the short long run situation look like well in terms of the short run instability there is a consensus that for the moment the measures that have been put in place by the European Central Bank in particular but also by governments by announcing right steps in the direction of a banking union have actually led to a substantial stabilization of the situation and this is the moment also to not only think about making this a stable equilibrium in the financial area but also to think about the long run visions for the fiscal and other future architecture of Europe and the particular of the eurozone so let me talk about one thing in particular that we discussed and that I think is the one issue that really there is a need to have much much more clear understanding of what type of future should be proposed because remember this is an absolutely unique situation there is a large region of the world that is sort of almost like a newborn but there is a future to shape which can be look very different from the present architecture and the particular question that is being asked and we had the discussion of the person who is working with one of the four presidents I don't know if you're aware but there is a report by four presidents of Europe and if you're not from Europe you will think oh you've just been following the US elections you may think why do they have four presidents of the union well this is the president of the European council of the European commission of the European central bank and of the euro group so this is Europe so we have four presidents they are all called presidents but they work together again this being Europe they produce a joint report and what they are thinking about very hard is the question what should the future fiscal structure of Europe look like in particular how much of a central budget do you need and what do you need it for so one of the things that I think many people are not aware of is that right now the European union has a very very tiny joint budget it's 1% of GDP whereas of course you know most countries have something in the area of 40% of GDP that they collect and spend so the question is would you need more and for what type of shocks what type of problems would you need more fiscal capacity I think that's very very fiscal capacity it's being called how much more centralisation of the budget how much more integration do you need in Europe for this region to be not only right now but you know a long term stable region that also offers the right growth opportunities and the right kind of insurance mechanisms for this kind of crisis not to reoccur and I think this challenge is not only to our council a major challenge it's also one that goes well beyond this council and can be at West for many different areas but I think many of your councils might also play a role Can I ask you to somehow categorise when you say that there's a fear that the US will fall off the cliff do you sense that everyone will stand on the edge of the cliff look over and walk back or will they like Felix Baumgartner jump from a high level and somehow land safely and make a career out of it and do it rather successfully I mean I'm not being facetious here but you can fall off cliffs and actually do it rather successfully as he's proven okay it's not the fiscal cliff but is there that sense that the American economy will fall over that cliff or not well there is a sense some people or many people seem to attribute by now a high probability that there is not an agreement before the date so in that sense you go off the cliff but then something will be done to at least pull back some part of the reaction so there will be a rewinding of the video and everyone will end up back on the top of the cliff part from a different start you know once taxes have gone up you start discussing whether you can have a compromise in lowering taxes and that is much more appetising type of discussion than the one whether you are increasing taxes so although you know it's maybe semantics it matters Nick can I just ask very quickly I mean if they did fall off the cliff what are the implications for the world economy as opposed to for the US economy specifically indeed Jennifer McNally asked the same question as Valerie what impact will fiscal clips in the US have on the global economy well according to this to the presentation that we also had in our council and according to these models impact if we fall off the cliff and nothing is done which is not what we are thinking now then the US could go into a small recession and that would mean that growth would be slightly negative you'd have a difference between the baseline projection now and what you would have in the area of 1.5 to 2% ditch points of GDP less growth now this has of course implications for the rest of the world so for China for instance the estimate is that would since the linkage is quite high that could mean like 1% less growth but of course the rest of the world also has ways of dealing with that so there would be some reaction there so that's why I said the relatively good news is that it may not be such a huge cliff as some people are fearing and let's not forget it would be an opportunity to close some of that long term gap which a long term gap is what it really means is that we are taxing our children that we are making our next the children and their grandchildren poor Pavels Febeda, I think it's number three although it's disappeared off my screen was asking what the impact will be from Demos was asking what the impact in Europe will be on the welfare state welfare support and the normal level of government spending for the basics of any community and I'm paraphrasing here from memory as opposed to what he's physically written of the fiscal cliff or no forgive me the network has gone down in here which is why I can't read it here anymore he was asking about whether the pressure on the fiscal pressure in Europe will lead to a real impact now on welfare spending yes I think that is almost inevitable we have a large number of countries that are still on the path to reducing their current deficits and they don't have really an alternative to that the question is just how quickly this is done it should not be done too quickly so there should be some back loading but within that context it is clear that some of the it cannot only be done through increasing taxes but also will have to affect expenditures but again turning to a good news part of this is that some of the reforms that are being done in Europe such as for instance increasing retirement age well that is actually acting both to improve the long run problem of demographics that we have anyway the short run fiscal problem so there are sometimes win-win situations I can't ask you if you've got any questions because actually the network has gone down so if you're sending emails or tweets I can't actually read them so let's move on to I can see at the back someone does want to come in but time is running out if we're not careful so Celine thank you very much for your patience this is not to in any way diminish the importance of oceans but obviously it was kind of difficult to push it in with youth unemployment and catastrophic risk and fiscal sustainability so your pitch please on oceans and the real dangers ahead I actually think that we can make connections with our oceans to all of our issues hopefully there's an ocean at the bottom of your cliff then you get a waterfall it makes the fall a little softer but I'd like to propose a challenge that we think of the ocean as our blue economy and it actually proposes a lot of possibilities but we are perhaps not looking at exploiting in a sustainable way when we think of our oceans we shouldn't just be thinking about environmental issues it really is a human issue and a human challenge that we need to be thinking about it's actually great that I'm going last because I've been listening to what everything everyone has been saying and what has been proposed and I'd like to go back to something you said at the beginning which is about our global community we don't think like a global community we think like individuals and our development and our ever-growing globalization in a positive way has also created individuality and separation of thinking where we need to think a lot more as a community and bringing these councils that we have here together rather than just following through with our own individual agendas there is so much overlap in everything that I'm hearing that for me it's actually wonderful to hear all of this what we have done with the council on oceans is really try to identify a couple of themes keep in mind that the oceans cover 71% of our planet a quarter of people depend on our oceans for food and about 44% of our global population lives within 100km of our oceans so if you think you're not connected to our oceans you are wrong we are connected to our oceans in so many ways we talk about youth employment think about the blue economy there are so many potential jobs and possibilities out there in terms of creating your own economy and your own work with the oceans in mind we have there's mining and obviously oil exploration which if done in a sustainable and a responsible way can be looked at as a job opportunity minerals are being discovered in deep sea beds as we speak and there are ways to to extract in sustainable ways that is a new economy to be looked at our fishing is obviously an issue with overfishing happening and illegal fishing that touches also on piracy which touches on security issues because our oceans connect all of our continents we talk about piracy we're talking about safety we're talking about a global issue not just an environmental issue one concentration for us is to look at traceability and I'll give you one example which I learned of yesterday which I was shocked about if you think about a yellowfin tuna that was fished in Hawaii that yellowfin tuna gets shipped to Taiwan to be processed it then comes back to the United States to be packaged and shipped back to Hawaii to be eaten so that connection right there connects all of those continents the label on that fish has Taiwan as the origin not Hawaii so when you're trying to eat local or you're trying to think in a local community or a global way you're actually not as informed as you think you are because we don't have a system that allows us to trace that fish from bait to plate so it's a simple way of saying that if we have the traceability methods of looking at our food system with our oceans we're also touching on our international security we're touching on the issues of transport because let's face it a lot of our transport happens on our oceans we're talking about tourism as well because a lot of our tourism happens on our coastal communities when we talk about coastal communities we're talking about development as well so the oceans and traceability have become something that we are focusing on we're also really wanting to get businesses engaged because businesses are a huge factor as far as our oceans are concerned and businesses are the future of our blue economy in terms of what we are going to be able to get from our oceans and how we're going to be able to share those resources all of this has to happen obviously in an environmental and sustainable way but our ocean topic is a human topic that connects every one of the nations and if we can think in a more global small community as far as that's concerned I think we're really going to move forward in a positive way we've created the Ocean Health Index it was actually born out of the council on oceans and nurtured by the World Economic Forum which is a metric to really look at ten different goals which includes food security it includes livelihood and economy it includes our natural resources and seven more goals that I'll just stop there but that really allows us in a very simple way to look at a metric of the value of our oceans and each country has a value from 1 to 100 so there's room for improvement there that's the positive side of this there's many things that can be done and this is where the government really needs to get involved because the government involvement actually increases the overall score of that country's involvement in ocean issues Thank you what about the laws of the sea and they're being tested very much when it comes to sovereign rights and so on but when you look at what's happening in the South China Sea and the various disputes there plus what's happening in the Arctic where there is actually a deal but also what's happening off Greenland and what's happening with the Arctic Council and the Arctic Treaties and I just mentioned three or four there what is your reflection on whether the laws of the ocean are resilient enough and proving their worth at the moment or not my personal opinion is the laws of the ocean are not resilient enough is that we need to have more stringent laws more ways of reinforcing and that's part of the problem it's one thing to create laws it's another thing to actually reinforce them and make sure that those are being abided by international waters are a point of contingency and a point of conflict because who do they belong to and where do those resources go and I think that we need to look at that more in depth so what's your more depth so what's the action point there it's all very well saying here in Dubai there's got to be greater clarity this kind of thing takes years to negotiate it does take years to negotiate but I think as was reflected earlier we don't have that time we feel that our oceans are this never ending resource but all we're really seeing the majority of people is the surface of the oceans we're not seeing what's underneath it and the depletion that's happening so those kinds of laws need to happen now and agreements, international agreements need to happen and I know that that's a very complex theme but this is what we're here for does anyone want to come in on oceans please at the back is this on oceans because I'm afraid the system has gone down therefore I cannot if any of you are burning to ask about the sea, oceans, fishing and so on I can't raise those questions they haven't come to me at the back no alright let's in the last five minutes open it up then do Charlotte or Beatrice or Valerie do you want to come back on particularly on this business of the sovereign rights of the sea and this is something you're dealing with all the time Valerie, most of the United Nations the issue of sovereignty and when it's an international issue and when it's sovereign, stay out yes and it's not just in relation to the sea I think what we are seeing increasingly I mean we need more multilateralism in my view to sort out a number of issues that we face in the world and that includes some of these issues around the seas and oceans but conversely what we are seeing is a move back into the nation state greater protectionism countries basically saying this is a sovereign issue for us internally and we're seeing this reflected politically in some of the debates in the security council as well so what we saw last year in terms of a debate around Libya and how and if the international community should intervene to protect civilians is very different to the debate that we are having this year with respect to Syria and precisely that same issue of protection of civilians and so on so I think that there is a contradiction almost in terms of what the world needs but how the debate is being framed which is not necessarily helpful but if we are not forming this left please I can't see who it is who's got the microphone yes thank you I'd like to come back to the could you just tell us who you are please Mike Hoden I'm with the aging council from New York I'm going to go back and help with the fiscal cliff but I would like to come back to this issue of fiscal sustainability and economic growth that was discussed a moment ago with a perfect kind of bridge on population aging this is the 2 billion people over the age of 60 which gives the 21st century this profound demographic shift our policies our institutions our culture is still in a 20th century mode where we think of people in 60 70 80 as inactive as unable to take care of themselves as not part of economic activity and growth that needs to shift and it will be a way to address both short term fiscal challenges and more importantly long term economic viability and so it is around this population aging topic that we need this profound shift in a culture thinking the idea of a 60 or 70 or 80 year old in the 21st century being treated the way they were treated in terms of being brought into social and economic activity that was true perhaps in the 20th century is no longer the case there is no better place to address this institutional change than the world economic forum Charlotte, do you see a parallel challenge here your council is youth unemployment but is it do you think too narrow to be just considering youth unemployment it should be the under employed or the non employed I think it's too narrow for a group like this to only deal with but I think it's too pressing and too important time is so so scarce we really need to focus on youth employment because the problem is here right now but I would like to say that also when we look at the statistics that we have to improve we can also see that young people are the ones who don't get the jobs young people still get the jobs so we really need we need to do both to focus on youth unemployment because it's very pressing right now but be more clever like a community here to integrate with others as well let me get one more intervention and then we'll have to adjourn hi good morning to you my name is Olya I'm a senior editor in Albaian for Valerie you spoke about providing aids and you mentioned Syria and you said what can we do for countries when such government prevents such aid I think don't you think it's time for a real reform for the UN Security Council that it's no longer five countries can control the future of this world thank you Nick can I just come in on that point because I think that we talk very loosely about the United Nations and we forget that it's 193 countries it's not just the Security Council it's not just the five permanent members of the Security Council there are another ten that sit for a two year term with those five members of the Security Council so we become focused on the five members that have the veto but actually the issue is much much bigger and broader than that and I think that these issues that we've been talking about over the last couple of days in terms of reform of the governance structures of our international institutions is key but there is a bigger responsibility piece here which is about the responsibility of each leader and each country in terms of what they bring to that United Nations discussion and I think that we let countries off the hook if we focus just on the Security Council and the five permanent members great thank you Valerie let's leave it there I'm afraid because we're out of time it's been a very rich hour and ten minutes thank you very much indeed for being here getting here and also for contributing my apologies the system went down resilience isn't 100% on wifi can I just say though that there was one email I think it was from Brancar who said the great thing this shows improvement and what a meeting like this can do two days ago it was only men on the platform this morning it's only women so thank you very much indeed