 Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley and Capital Economics to name it a few institutes expecting a cut to interest rates following comments by Governor Carney that some monetary policy easing was likely in coming months, others expecting the Bank of England to set the stage for a rate cut later in August. It would be the first move in rates since March 2009. For more I'm joined by Mark Bailey of FIG Securities Live. Mark, let's start by looking at the Bank of England because I do think this is a potential trouble point for the markets. It's about an 80% bet currently that they will be looking at cutting rates when they make that decision tomorrow. How likely, though, what do you probability you're putting on it that they could surprise us by not moving? Or do you think Mark Carney is being very clear that that's his intention? Yeah, good morning, Covington. As you rightly say, the financial futures markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut to 0.25% by the Bank of England. In terms of the economists, as you highlighted, it's around about 30 out of 54 of the survey that I have seen is expecting a cut. I think Mark Carney will have to cut on Thursday. I think otherwise he's going to lead to potentially disappoint the markets and the markets are looking for that additional comfort and additional support that the Bank of England really is there behind the financial markets in terms of trying to provide some support and stimulus given the shock of Brexit. So I think it'd be a bit more of a shock and I don't think he would be willing to risk that in terms of the comments that he has made previously, which you rightly point out, which do indicate that he's probably like to move sooner on Thursday rather than wait until August. I think you did see in terms of where the currency is as well, even on the back of Theresa May being essentially confirmed as Prime Minister, which you will get later today in the UK. You did see a short small rally in Sirling, but that's still well below pre-Brexit levels of around about $132 to the US dollar. So it's only at the highs of a week and risen for the three days in a row, but it's still well below what it was pre-Brexit. And I don't think you saw that rally. And I think it would have been a relief rally as well because that whole EU situation still hasn't been resolved. And I guess in that regard, the EU is saying, well, now that the UK has a Prime Minister or will have later today, they can really expedite the trigger of the Article 50. But Theresa May has time and time again said that that's probably a 2017 trigger point and she probably won't do it this year. So it's all in the UK's hand. So I think once you get a bit of a relief rally, once the markets get over the fact that the UK now as a Prime Minister now has a bit of leadership, it's still going to be a very long drawn out process with a lot of question marks. One of which is, does it have to go through Parliament to actually be able to leave the UK? And it's not clear whether the Parliament would vote to leave. And so that maybe throws open to another general election where the electorate has another chance to decide on whether the UK leaves or not. So that's one issue that Europe is dealing with. It's kind of it's left flank, it's upper left flank, but it's underbelly continues to look the weakest part of the grouping. In particular, we were talking before the break about the slow moving wreck that is effectively the Italian banking system. We're going to pull up a couple of charts just to kind of illustrate the crazy moves down that we've seen as far as share prices are concerned. Montitier-Pasche is kind of the trigger point. We'll start with Deutsche Bank, which is kind of a broader story that we've seen. Both the Brexit hit taking in effect in Deutsche Bank, but also what is kind of a banking crisis? It may be not at crisis point just yet, but at the moment it's hard to see how Europe is going to resolve those issues. So that's Deutsche Bank, that is not even directly involved with the Italian banking crisis with Montitier-Pasche, the trigger point that's currently moving through. Now, the share price collapse, if you even look even further of say a 10-year period, it's just extraordinary turn down, but Mark Bailey, the bondholders are the key factor to be resolved in this issue. A lot of talk is that the ECB is pressuring the Italian government to effectively make the bondholders, the junior bondholders, take a haircut in order to restructure the debt of this bank. The Italians are pushing back on that because a lot of these bondholders are retail investors. Mum and dad, it's going to be politically painful, but also it's going to have an effect, you would think, on the Italian economy. Talk us through how this affects the broader bond markets and how does this affect the access to debt that other companies who are trying to get their money through to fund whatever part of their business they need help in? Yeah, that's right. And if you look at the share price of Deutsche Bank year today, it's probably down around about 50 percent and Montitier-Pasche is probably down around about 80 percent. So the main hits has been to the equity holders, but as you rightly point out, those hybrid holders are, as they call them in the European Union, CoCo's contingent capital instruments very similar to the hybrids here. They have been very, very volatile. The Deutsche Bank instruments started the year at around about 92 cents, dropped down to the low 70s and have recovered slightly. And those Montitier-Pasche hybrids as well have traded down 13 cents in a day to 64 cents and they're hovering kind of around about that level now. And as you rightly point out, the key part of this whole puzzle is that the holders of those instruments are largely retail investors. They're the mom and pop depositors that have again been convinced to buy these instruments because they see them as being very similar to bank deposits even though the risks associated with them are nowhere near the same as bank deposits so that they can pick up a higher return than their very low yielding bank deposits. And that additional layer of complexity, as you rightly point out, does feed into the whole bail-in, bail-out mechanism, which creditors will receive haircuts, which ones will be saved. And if it was institutional investors, it's much easier for the government and for the EU to say, okay, you knew what you were doing, you knew what the risks were associated with those instruments and you're going to be hair cut 20 cents, 30 cents, and a dollar all completely wiped out. Whereas as you say, because it's the mom and pop investors that own these instruments and because it's those retail investors, it's a much more difficult situation because there'll be political ramifications, as you rightly point out, on top of the economic ramifications as well. And it's very interesting because that's very similar to the Australian hybrid market, which again is largely retail, is largely owned by the mom and pop investors. So again, we might get an indication of how that bail-out regime will actually work in practice because as you say, the EU is pushing back and saying, no, you need to write down those all the way through the capital structure before you're allowed to inject capital and the Italian government is, as you would expect, trying to get that capital injection before writing down certain instruments to probably try and protect its political future, which is in Italy, as you are elsewhere in the world and especially in Europe, seeing those right-wing anti-establishment parties gain more and more political grounds. It's a fascinating subject. I know Tony Davidson was desperate to have a comment. Unfortunately, we have run out of time. Hopefully we can do it again later. Mark Bailey, thank you for your time. Tony Davidson, as always, a pleasure.