 Okay, very good morning to everyone. It's Tuesday the 3rd of December and I'm gonna go straight into this graphic I've got here, which is a bit of a reflection of the size of the sell-off that we had yesterday Pretty much the S&P putting in its biggest sell-off that we've had in about two months the Dow I think it was down closed about 268 points on Wall Street the combination really of The tariff man back in business of course before he heads and meets other senior heads of state in the NATO leader summit happening in the UK Coming up this week I've got a full agenda for Trump that we can look at hour by hour So we can track his movements for any potential tweets that he might make on these subjects and then we've had the economic data that's been coming up and Despite some of the recent kind of positive US economic data points. We've had we've had some Disappointments and particularly yesterday almost sparking further momentum behind the sell-off on Wall Street was that latest ISM manufacturing number Kind of every component of it the US manufacturing sector was he contracting slightly faster the rate in November The PMI survey also showing businesses scaling back production new orders of faltering the employee constituent was down against the prior month And all of this of as well coming ahead of more key North American data this week You've got the non manufacturing PMI ADP and of course non-farm payrolls all coming up On Fridays, so they were kind of the two main real catalyst to yesterday's price activity So the dollar got hit both major pairs largely supported and if we're looking at the the kind of charts this morning Things are seeing a little bit of a recovery of sorts I guess given the depth of the move that we saw yesterday. This is usually quite common kind of practice People just closing out those speculative shorts having hit that move yesterday and just looking at two major stock indices here This is the S&P 500 One of the questions I was asking Sam first thing this morning was if you were gonna if you if I had to force you to buy The dip where would you buy the dip and I'm sure he can talk about this a little bit more Because for me yesterday's movement had enough reasons from the tariffs and the data But not forgetting as well that we were at record all-time highs And so I do think that a little bit of a pullback here is kind of warranted at these levels The question is then well at what point then do we We kind of look to get in For the inevitable center clause rally if that does indeed materialize obviously a lot of risks looming mid month given the Tariffs still potentially coming on China. We've got the Federal Reserve meeting. You've got the UK general election It's still plenty going on But you can see here from yesterday's response to the key kind of technical level you had that trend line Ascending trend line from really the 13th the retest on around the 20th and that coinciding with some of the upside resistance that we had around the middle of November Just all coinciding around that same point before then seeing a bit of a lift in the most recent price activity This morning to get things underway for looking at the DAX pretty similar as well You know the DAX loves it when it breaks a key technical level You know the way I kind of look at the DAX and the way of which it moves It's all often you need the fundamental catalyst, but then the technical breaches of key Longer time frame levels tends to see some real Sharp price movement and yesterday certainly we got beyond that point. You can see we broke that mid-November Area we then pushed down so you can see here that level that extension on the wick there I know it's quite small for you to see that we make it a bit bigger So there the break that you get you get the break the pull back to the exact level of where the initial Area that people were looking at then you get the push down on the downside and as we recover We're recovering back Playing on the same kind of technical points So the market responding initially when the overnight Asia Pacific late in that session to where we were on the 20th Then we break higher. Where do we go back to that level again of where we were? Consolidating previously here and here so again quite you know when you're trading that type of instrument, which is very Volatile, I think you've got to be picking out these levels well in advance of time and I did if you didn't catch it Yesterday I did share Some commentary I was doing immediately post the ISM on our YouTube channel So if you go on the breaking news and a category you can catch that but you can see how When I'm trying to observe the markets in flux when things are moving quite rapidly for me It's about monitoring of key levels across asset class that's how I generally can determine then about the the depth of a move how How far it can go so in addition to just seeing how the candles are forming the kind of movement on the ladder Also looking at the cross asset class correlations to see if there any meaningful Coordinated breaks of key levels is what I'm generally basing that along the decision and if you're trying to kind of maximize then Potential profit targets for example to maximize the trade to get out When the market is moving quite quite rapid as it was yesterday One thing that's going back on the macro from This was another graphic that I'm sure In summary is very familiar and this is looking at the blue line as the S&P 500 index The white line as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index That's kind of a whole continent if you like putting all together those agent indices so the US has out performed The point here is not that the point is the red lines here So every time you know if you were to remove the right-hand side of the chart This is record all-time highs. We hit the record all-time high Trump says he will raise tariffs on 200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% that was in Kind of may time of this year and then equities fall We then get to equities all-time highs Trump says will add 10% tariffs to 300 billion of Chinese goods Equities fall we get to all-time highs Trump comes out as I'm about to discuss and now he's not talking about Potentiality of delaying or Disrupting at least the phase one deal with China But now he's firing bullets across the entire globe at everyone from France to Australia to Brazil Argentina With this whole kind of US protectionist policy and and therefore we've had a little bit of a correction So, you know the one thing that is still very telling here If you're kind of moving yourself out of the intraday market and looking at this more medium-term perspective Is that every time we get near that all-time high we go back into that continuum that loop of The trade war cycle Trump has that Flexibility then almost it feels to kind of get a little bit more aggressive on the rhetoric and inevitably then markets pull back Only for then a deal to be made or hints towards it The Fed might respond if there's continuous pressure in the market, and then we go back up again One would imagine this can't Be sustained forever, but at the moment this is a very distinct pattern And one that I think we can continue to expect to see in time the other thing that that I've Was thinking this morning when I was coming into work is that there seems to me to be a very distinct pattern Not only about where the stock market is at this point in time and how that can translate to Trump's Activity or at least his strategy is the other thing we do have this coming up Donald Trump arrived in Britain fairly fairly quiet arrival actually yesterday I have tweeted on my account the full agenda of where he's gonna be today and On the 4th of December this of course is for that NATO leader summit that's happening in Hertfordshire But the important point I want to make here is that every time So if we're to look at the fourth when we're right in the middle of the NATO meeting some of the people attending this are Justin Tredo the Canadian PM Angler Merkel the German Chancellor will be there Of course Boris Johnson is hosting the Prime Minister Giuseppe Conti the Italian PM is gonna be there Mark Rutte the Dutch PM is there nearly always That I've seen the head of a g7 g20 NATO whatever it might be if there's heads of state present particularly Trump's trance least favorite character Emmanuel Macron. He always Threatens new tariffs or he Threatens basically this kind of notion that the world is taking advantage of America and so again These types of things are very subtle But something to be aware of because then you can start to almost Anticipate around the timing of which the Trump tone or tactic might change gear or direction What I'm saying then is that every time before meeting heads of state He typically starts to talk a quite a Negative tone So something to just bear in mind, but that in combination with the stock market I think Given that we were at all-time record highs was almost like the perfect storm for what happened and created a lot of the market Movement yesterday I feel from a fundamental perspective The other point here though that makes it a little more Interesting and perhaps a little bit more that we could see some more downside to come is the fact that China have been quite vocal about potentially Retaliation now Chinese state media has said the government would soon publish a list of unreliable Entities that could lead to sanctions against US companies Now a lot of this is coming in retaliation to the human rights Issues that the US have been saying about what's been going on in Hong Kong with the pro-democracy Protests and also in an area in the western part of China in Xinjiang which is where they've been these reported voluntary reeducational camps Which I'll let you make your own judgment on what you really think about that in reality But all of this of course has come at a very Interesting time and one of which is adding a lot of pressure about the delivery of Something's got to give before the middle of the month because the clock is ticking December 15th Trump has threatened to impose 15 percent tariffs on a hundred and sixty billion Further more of Chinese imports now at the moment I think things get a little bit more worse on this front before then the inevitable happens And I do think that a phase one deal will not be completely Eliminated I do think though we're gonna have to be looking until the new year until it gets done But between now and then obviously there's a lot of risk on the table renewed that is The other thing as well that the Global Times editor Which you'll know quite vocal on Twitter in the Western world tends to be the mouthpiece of the government has been talking about US officials may also face visa curbs as well So it's all suddenly kind of escalated quite quickly Particularly on the back of that again legislation that was passed by the president last week Supporting the situation that's happening with the protesters in Hong Kong This just to make matters worse the as I said Trump going into meeting all of these officials I mean just imagine going into a meeting room where you've basically Just said you're gonna massively Tariff Individual countries and then you go into a room to meet all of the prime ministers and heads of states of these countries I mean You've got to hand it to him. He's got he's got some pair of Well some pair of stuffing balls, let's say keeping it seasonal, but Yeah, this is the main thing that's happened overnight in the headline that Bloomberg are running with is that the US was proposing duties on 2.4 billion dollars of French goods over tech tax now Hitting France where it hurts cheese and wine and handbags I'm sure Bloomberg are having a little little bit of a dig and a laugh at that this morning But you know these are the main exporting goods out of that country and so the US proposing this In retaliation to digital revenues that France has been proposing to hit and specifically target large American Corporations so as you can imagine those like Google Apple Facebook Amazon Which they feel are massively underpaying and getting around the loopholes of the amount of tax that they should be paying And of course America taking this as why are you unfairly picking on us in the situation? The US TR are not only looking at France though They've got their eyes on Austria Italy and Turkey. So now It's spread almost and although that was always the case Again the more the market starts to believe that this is beyond the shores of just China the more of a global risk that it becomes So yeah in very interesting developments so overnight, okay? Let's move off Trump and let's go somewhere else. One is just wanted to quickly talk about OPEC. So For those on the distribution list. I did email this out to you this morning. So do you have a read? Basically, it's an analysis piece a preview ahead of the OPEC meeting that's happening later on second half of this week I did also Re-share on my Twitter account if you need to see the article that way now a couple of points I've taken out of this article and I just wanted to get you up to speed of a thing things to think about Because as I said yesterday's briefing the OPEC meeting rarely does it get to the point of the confirmation from the press conference? Officially we're going to get a lot of a lot of headline noise coming up over the next day or two So I wanted to get you guys kind of set up for what to expect now many analysts say the group Should announce deeper cuts for longer in order to avoid a price slump So far however OPEC delegates have largely indicated no appetite for bolder action So on the balance Expectations are that they're not going to deepen the existing OPEC 1.2 million pounds per day cut They're just going to roll this over given its exploration at the end of Q1 of 2020 now A lot of this has been reignited by the fact that the Iraqi all-minister Said on Sunday that the proposal should be to increase the cut depth by an extra 400,000 to 1.6 million now for the most part OPEC plus Appears headed towards a less ambitious but more straightforward extension of a deal on the same quotas The exact length though is unknown Some according to those familiar with the discussions have said that we're looking at basically three Six or nine month extensions, which could be Under discussion obviously the longer the extension probably the more bullish it could be for prices So scaling out from three six to nine months now I thought this was a really interesting point and something which I do think could throw a little bit of a spanner in the works for a Positive price surprise and this is that shares in the state-owned Saudi Aramco a set to begin trading next week and obviously this has been one of the most eagerly anticipated and Biggest initial public offerings. We've ever seen now What do you think Saudi Arabia will want for the price of oil and the first few days of which Saudi Aramco starts trading? For me, I think that definitely spells a little bit fishy that you know Would they really even though they've been the ones who've been very reluctant to deepen the cuts because they know they typically end up Shouldering most of the burden, but they definitely are going to want oil prices Stabilizing or moving higher when that those shares in Aramco start trading next week. So just think yeah a little bit Suspect the timing will Saudi Arabia feel this kind of political pressure to perform with Aramco? And so therefore well, look, let's just let's just commit to something pretty decent like a nine month rollover Or let's go for a 200k Extension for a little bit more plus an extension on the time frame something like that just to propel mark the oil price in time Knowing as well Saudi that the global picture is at some degree of risk Coming this and next week under now the renewed protectionism coming out of the US Which could dent oil prices right at the worst time for Saudi without Aramco listing So yeah in the absence though of deeper collective cuts analysts have said that the Saudis could well start to just put some additional pressure on the likes of Iraq Nigeria who have been historically very bad with their compliance to just basically start Upping their game and falling into line and obviously the Russians will be key. So a couple of interesting points that I thought I'd share Rounding off the the headlines the other things here are in Germany. We were talking about this yesterday pretty Huge move in in Buns actually yesterday in German yields So I wanted to just give you an update because everyone yesterday was talking about perhaps now You know a revolutionary move from a from a fiscal budget point of view So we're moving out of the surplus to really ramp up government spending under this new leftist junior Partner coalition in the SPD. However now the dust has settled One of the things here that I read which I think was quite interesting was that they said the SPD and these these new Juo leaders that are more left rather than centrist I believe that ending the coalition Generally speaking in Germany then leads to the risk of a snap election now That's a particular risk for the SPD whose popularity has been decreasing Where support has slumped around 15% in some recent polls now the risk that that runs then is the SPD could lose out because in the polls at the moment the far right AFD are polling at a pretty much matched level so The idea here being then that maybe they won't want to disrupt and pull the plug on the existing coalition Because the risks are too great that if they did and we went down election route They could be completely out of power and you'd have a far right AFD potential Representation and so better off then just using your negotiation internally with Merkel's CDU to try and make make further headway So I just thought I would cover that New poll has come out overnight the ICM poll Importantly and this is going to be something quite interesting to watch over the coming days This is the first poll conducted which encapsulates the field work Post the event of the the tragic event that unfolded in London on Friday So this was polling people who would have already have experienced and known about that terror attack that happened on London Bridge Now what we've seen before is this often can lead to further support for the conservatives given the more aggressive policies on things like Policing immigration internal Kind of rulings about the severity of punishments in regards to the the criminal system and so on comparative to labor but One thing that happened was it wasn't like a big change if anything it was Stabilization the conservatives in the latest ICM poll have maintained a seven point lead over labor And so you remember the weekend There were what four new polls three of which labor were gaining and so if anything this is a slight positive for the conservatives on this side and in finally The Aussie is a little bit firmer overnight in the currency market So despite some of the the negatives we've been discussing on China and trade wars Australia had their RBA the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision as expected They didn't change rates. They kept it on hold at zero point seven five percent But they did say they are prepared to be patient as policy has long and variable lags So again, not looking to make any near-term moves if you're reading between the lines of the types of commentary That came alongside their actual holding in rates Looking at the actual calendar for today. What have we got? So on the data side of things UK construction PMI that's not going to really move Much the sterling currency will be the service number we'll get tomorrow, which will be more important Eurozone producer prices perhaps could be warrant watching the month-to-month is expected at flat The bottom-ended range there would be negative point one and this afternoon fairly quiet in the US We do get the API all of the trees after market But the thing I'd probably say you need to monitor really more is anything coming out of Trump As I said that full Agenda is available on my Twitter account to see all of the movements of today Really today is the build-up the actual NATO meeting starts happening tomorrow Demonstrations are apparently happening across London as they do when Trump arrives in town They're going to be happening from 3 p.m. Because then at Buckingham Palace. They're hosting a reception this evening before then the meeting kicks off first thing 7 30 a.m. For the the start of proceedings on Wednesday All right, that's it from me going to hand you over to Sam. I hope that was useful Remember to like and subscribe to the channel if you're not really done so for more updates and I'll catch you later on Thanks very much. Hi guys. Good morning. Hope we're all doing well Decent move lower in stocks yesterday and we did come down to test the Well, initially we filled the gap from a couple of weeks ago Decent reaction from that's put us down to a 15 minute. You can see a couple of times. We did come down to hit 31 11 we've got a good push back and we couldn't break below it as simple as that really and looking on the 240 That trend line that starts back on the 13th of the month Before November on November, I should say it's held up well So we're keeping an eye on that how it holds up because if that was to go 3100 could be a level to keep an eye on and as I mentioned in terms of sort of buying a dip Where would appeal to me? I do quite like the the look of and it was around this sort of point here 30 What was it 30 54 55? I think that's a good level as any to really come back in and haven't really necessarily Tested that area since we we did break through and you'll remember as well Maybe just a bit above that now is the the longer-term trend Channel the top part of that that we did break through on the first November So again, that would be probably worth it's having a quick look at to see where we're trading now for any Retracement to that point. It's gonna put this on for us here. Let's just keep it as a trend line Let's roughly draw that there so you can see well if that was to come in now around 67 You see the breakthrough on the the beginning of November that I was on about so that'd be worth keeping a watch on as well Just in case we are to have any followed through but must stress, you know until we really get below that trend line From the middle part of November, I wouldn't be too worried about this market Coming down too much. So but now holding up obviously above where we're trading We've got to keep an eye on any of these potential resistance points that we had previously been support that we broke through But you know that trend number we want to keep an eye on and then the retest of the overall big trend from the all-time highs As well the pound start in the the morning quite nicely Finally breaking above that trend in the early hours But we did come back and it would have probably caused a bit of drama So anyone wanting to get long in there, but we have pushed up to test up towards today's R2 So decent push there for the pound and if we put this on a 240 you can see the significance of this area Just above where we're trading 130 I'm going to draw a bit of a rectangle on that going back to the highs that we had back on the 17th of October We had a couple of goes at really trying to push above that couldn't quite make it. We came back on Halloween Brexit Day Apparently and the 18th of November couldn't quite get above where we're trading now So quite a lot of resistance above where we are trading How long we've got now nine days until The election and if we have a look just at the the recent price action of this market over the last few weeks We have been Overall just chopping in a bit of a range every time we potentially look like we're gonna have a go at breaking out of it We haven't so we're just coming up to the top end of that now So worth having this marked up and you can see the significance of this level if we go back to What was that April this year and then obviously retesting that now? So a key level on the longer-term chart to have a watch that around this 130 on the future There's a break above that could expect a point move. I would say relatively quickly If that was to take place But saying that each time we've come to either the top or bottom end of this range We've been met with some decent price action for a reversal euro. Yes, they're lovely day for any Person who was bullish and we're coming back up to its key point and top end of that range as well Just above 111 the handle on the futures You can see here once we've broken through this on the sick and the seventh of November We came back to retest it a couple of times in the mid-part and and it's held up very well Since then so keep a watch on that for the euro the downside you can see why on Friday We found support there So again longer term looking at this more as a a key level of support below resistance above and again If we were to break out of those points Then why can't we reach the other parts of the range 1202 up to the top? And then obviously that low that we had on the first of October down at 109 gold yesterday Had an attempt to try push higher but wasn't really met with much buy-in especially with stocks going lower and the dollar was weak You know you have to be slightly worried about that You know if you're a gold ball anyway 1450 still a key level to the downside the the top end of this range that we broke through We came back to retest that on the 20th of November. It was 1480 down the contract roll over taken into 87 So just be aware of that if trading futures But we are getting squeezed in from both directions you'd have to say now for gold So keep a watch on that and any potential break that could come drop this down to 240 You can just see maybe over the last few hours. We are just getting squeezed in from that top end So keep a watch on that once I put the pivots on just have a little look more Closer intraday on the 60 minute at where we're trading you can see from the last two Trading sessions those highs have been coming down and as well just below where we're trading here at 1465 Is a pretty key level? Yes a bit choppy yesterday But you can see we found support today and have been a really good price action point over Last week as well so gold getting squeezed from the top the bottom As well you could argue with the trend starting on the 26th really nicely Respected yesterday morning for the third test after we made one on Friday as well So I probably for gold wait for in terms of a bigger move outside of those trend lines or wait to see what happens at 1465 As well have a quick look at oil yesterday We pushed higher really an early morning trade and just couldn't get above the Low that 21st around 56 60 incredibly well respected technical level there that matches up along with yesterday's high today On the R1 to keep a close watch on that any push above that R2 marks up pretty well bang on with the low the 25th So oil quite well respected yesterday from a technical point of view Quite low in volume today It's gonna get a quick trend line on that just to Potentially see if we can get a third test of that Later on the higher today. We had a go at trying to break above what was again quite a good level 46 32 Yes, so you can see resistance late. Yes They was initially support and then the first real test of that today offering a level where the sellers have got in So we'll be keeping an eye on that trend line obviously the high from yesterday the R1 break above that you could see Fervor move towards 27, which was a key point as we can see back on the 25th Which didn't really stand in the way of Friday sell-off following that technical break as well Which would have picked things up to the downside quick look over at the Dax I mean well this time yesterday we were saying well hang on Dax is is trying to push up to the top end of that range quickly Reverse along with stocks across the board and a big push down. We are coming back now to test Some of those resistance points to keep a watch on that was it a pivot again worth keeping an eye on and with any of These equity markets, you know Yes, they was a day where the afternoon led to that selling so keep her a close watch on any support And if we do come down with a bit of force whether you would want to be a buyer around these levels or not Again, I'm not too sure there could still be some to come especially if one of these trends were to break So euro not necessarily massively strong today, which is allowing maybe the Dax to recover a bit But a strong day in the euro. Yes, they'll support the Dax down and the Bund as well You can see here still getting a bit choppy around those lows. I just clear up the Market levels you can see that low from yesterday was a decent area from the 13th as well So that 13th of November being attracted by quite a few markets a break below there in the bund and you can see the next horizontal Level that it'd be targeting We'll be down to the low the 12th the 8th and the 7th as well where there was quite a lot of buy-in that came in Again with these markets if you do get those retracements, just keep an eye On any previous lows and today the pivot 170 30 and the low of the 22nd all match up As well as usual any questions, obviously, please do let us know be on the mic throughout the day and Hope you will have a good one and I look forward to catching up with you all later