 It all comes down to this, the PGA Tour Championship coming up this weekend at Eastlake Golf Club. $15 million will be giving out to the winner of this event this weekend, but also we will crown the winner of the 2021 Bobble Hat Championship. Between myself and Brandon Gadoula, our PGA head to head coming down to the final event, so a lot to break down, a unique format for the Tour Championship. We got a lot to discuss, so let's do that right now. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Stonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire.com. I'm joined here as always by Brandon Gadoula. He is the managing editor for Numberfire.com. Brandon, last week was good. I won the Bobble Hats. My two win picks were Bryson and Yashambo. We're Bruxy. Nice job, Bruxy. So Bryson is going to call in to whoever runs us. I know who my boss is, but I'm not going to tell him. And get us kicked off the air. Anyway, Bryson and Cantlay from my two win picks last week, that was great. And tied you up in the Bobble Hat, which means we have it all decided this week. Tied 16-16, I think 17-17, whatever it may be. 15-15, who could say? Either way, the winner this week wins our Bobble Hat. If you don't know what the Bobble Hat is, it's our weekly head-to-head we do here on the podcast. We keep track throughout the year. Started after the Masters back in November. We are tied heading into the final event. If I win, Brandon knows me at Bobblehead. Who wins? I win the hats. He's currently wearing a former Bobble Hat trophy to taunt me on the air. So I'm pretty shook, Brandon. Do you feel confident heading into this final week of the Bobble Hat? I mean, I guess statistically I should, because as I was telling you, I ran the numbers and you've won four in a row. So for me to lose five in a row, that's about 3% likely to happen. But of course, what happened the past four weeks has no bearing on what happens this week anyway. It might though, because you might be just so rattled, because I'm so great. It could actually be like 70-30 or something. I think 48 is more appropriate. And the other thing too is I was trying to be a good content creator and not both have Patrick Hanley as our win picks, because I picked him everywhere, I picked him myself. I was like, no, I'll just pick other guys, because, you know, and then of course, Cantley has the best putting performance of all time. And he went, so like, I'm happy, but now you're within striking distance. But you actually bet him. So like, doesn't that actually matter more than our competition? Does it? I mean, I want to make sure, because we actually do a... I mean, if you want to give me the outright money from Cantley, I'll take it. And then you can have the win pick for the podcast. That's fine. I'll give you my winnings. And then if I win the win pick... I mean, we do actually do a secondary bobble hat for the win picks anyway. So, I mean, it's tough, because I was up in both of these. You're demolishing me in head-to-head bets. It's 29-12. I can't even fathom being that bad at something, but I apparently am. And I was like, well, I'm going to get two hats here for winning win picks and bobble hat. No, I wasn't... It wasn't cemented, but I was like, it's trending that way. It's going to take kind of a collapse and collapsing. So it's a little unnerving. You mentioned the head-to-head bets. Our worst bet ever actually wound up being not that bad, because we bet Corey Connors and Sergio Garcia head-to-head who would gain the most or lose the least strokes putting last week. They both gained. They actually both wound up positive. Sergio won by a bit, but like... Connors was... I think Connors was a negative 0.7. Oh, was he? On Fantasy National he is. Oh, I pulled from data golf. Those are just for field strength, which... Oh, okay, cool. That makes sense. Either way, it wasn't that bad. So, yay us on that one, but either way... If anyone... I couldn't give a better example of how bad I'm running in these head-to-head bets than betting against Sergio's putter and having him finish 10th in putting in a great field. So that's about where I am. And in a course where Bryson just like his distance was... It took a historic and historic, I think, as... But I bet Bryson too, so can't wait winning. All it does is it changes what I need to do to beat you this week. Can I finish? No. Did you listen to those podcasts? Did I ever not interrupt in you? At a course where Bryson's distance had him like six shots above everyone else aside from the guy who had the best putting week since we've had strokes gain data, he should have ran away with it. But in that same course, somehow Abe answered finish top 10 and was in the mix. And I was like, those don't go together, but you somehow got at a course where... I didn't have Brooks in the bobble hat, did I? I had answer. Did you call Bryson Brooks again? Oh my God. No, you didn't have Bryson. We were talking about Keppke a bunch before we recorded because he's an amazing player this week. The plot, yeah. Yeah, but no, I mean, I don't know. We're longer in here more than we ever do, but 30 golfers to go over. But no, it wasn't that you had Bryson in the bobble hat as well. You had answer. But I'm saying it was a course where if you said, hey, Bryson's going to go beat everyone by six aside from the guy who had the hottest putter in 20 years. I'm like, okay, you go ahead and play Abe answer then, Jim. And it still worked out. I don't know. I'm running extremely bad right now and I can't make it stop. You know what your issue is? You didn't play the best plays, Brandon, regardless of archetype. How dare you? But today, we're going to discuss the best plays for the Tour Championship. We're going to break down the event, the unique format for this week and what it all means, who stands out after accounting for the format and more right now. The Tour Championship is at East Lake golf club. It is 7,346 yards and a par 70. It is hosted all 13 previous FedEx Cup championships. There are 30 golfers in the field. So shockingly no cut this week with 30 golfers in the field. And there are staggered starting scores for this week. That is the thing that started two years ago for this event. And that way is going to begin this event at 10 under par. Tony Finau is eight under. Bryson DeChambeau is seven. John Rom is six. Cameron Smith is five. Then it goes down from there. Five golfers at four under, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And that's obviously a big thing. But at the same time, these numbers are accounted for in both the win-offs and the salaries. So they're going to play a key role in dictating finishing points for DFS, but also they will also be accounted for in those factors. In the two years they have used this format, the winners have been the first and fifth seed. So 10 under and five under. That is noteworthy for sure. We've not seen someone make a massive comeback, but there are other guys who've gotten close despite starting pretty far in the hole. So we'll see how things play out. Winner gets $15 million for this week. Brandon, talk to me about Eastlake Golf Club. Talk to me about this format and this event and what we should know heading into this week. Yeah. So it's a par 70. It runs 7,300 yards. The average green size here, just over 6,000 square feet. So about as average as you can get in these greens, Arbor Muda. The two winning scores, the net winning scores have been 21 and 18 under. The gross winning scores are 15 and 13 under in that span. And if you dig back a bit, it's roughly been around that 13 to 15 under. So if you remove the starting scores, imagine it's going to be an event where it takes about a 15 under score to win. So easy, not necessarily 20 to 25 under, but still plenty of birdies to rack up. There are renovations at this course back in about 2016 and 2020. They did remove some trees in 2020. I mean, it's kind of a boring course like statistically to break down because it's pretty run of the mill aside from the fact that driving accuracy gets a big boost according to data golf's course fit tool. Now, what that typically means for us is that variance gets increased because the shorter hitters, you know, this, this seems like an abe answer week whenever we know driving accuracy is a big benefit and that distance isn't an absolute must. Now, this is a little bit longer than your typical par 70, but I'm not substantially so. So I mean, for me, I'm kind of playing it pretty straight with my key stats going to be stroke scan approach. Number one start was explains the most, the highest percentage of scoring T among the T degree and stats stroke scan off the tee for me because driving accuracy matters, but I don't ever want to discount distance for golfers who can pick it up. Birdie or better rate is close to a must for me. I want guys who can either get into scoring position with opportunities game, which is a fantasy national stat or who are just converting birdies. So for me, it's kind of just approach off the tee accuracy a little bit and birdie or better rate, I think is going to get us where we need to go. Yeah, I think that one question people may have is, did the renovations in 2020 removing the trees alter the skew towards accuracy and it didn't really looking back at last year. You look at the golfers who gained strokes last year, their average ranking and good drives gain for the year was 55th. The guys who lost strokes, their average ranking and good drives gained was 117. So the guys who were good in that regard played well last year even after they changed things with the trees. So I do still have good drives gained as being a key staff me this week because that's what the data says as the data golf says as the last year's good performances did as well. So that that's the reason that I am there. Also, I do want to reiterate what you said the birdies are the birdie stuff. It matters a lot. So I'm looking at birdies are better gain because as you mentioned, everyone's pretty much going to get scoring points this week finishing points this week. So if you want golfers who are going to score well for DFS and separate from the pack, you need birdies desperately. Like I would say more so in this event than any event the entire year, you need birdies not just because of the actual score for birdies, but also like if you want, we can't use only guys who are 500 par starting for this event. If you want guys who are going to make up ground and erase those deficits, you need birdies obviously. So I think that more so than other weeks, putting a key focus on guys who can get birdies and score low will be a huge factor this week. So I know you said it, but I want to emphasize how important it is this week. Well, Jim, isn't isn't picking guys at the bottom of the starting score grid? Isn't that bad process? Well, Brandon, you tell me because you've looked at the data from previous tour championships under this format. So Brandon, educate me in an unplanned segment about optimal roster in the past two years. Yeah. So I mean, it's two years that we've had this modified start, which I still don't know how I quite feel about it. I think it's like good to reward guys for like the full season. I don't know. The playoffs are just kind of their own thing. And I can't complain whenever we get really good golfers interested in playing an event because last week I didn't care that it was the FedEx couple playoffs. I cared that it was like Cantley and Bryson going head to head with some other guys, like lurking with John Rom and even Avancer. But the past two years we have seen a golfer start outside the top 20 because everyone's just bucketed. In 2019, Ches Reeve made the optimal lineup on Fandle. He was starting 21st, so one under par. And then last year was Mackenzie Hughes starting 26. We started even par. Those guys both made it, but they were the only golfer outside the top 20. We typically see someone, at least one golfer in that 16th bucket too, so starting two under. So those guys are still relevant. But last year, I'll just say the full optimal lineup. DJ was starting 10 under. His salary was $14,400. We do not have someone like that this year. The highest salary is $13,000 for John Rom, because he's starting back off of the lead of Patrick Cantley. Justin Thomas started 3rd, so he was 7 under. Xander Schroffley started 3 under. He was in that 11th tier. Then Scotty Schaeffler, 2 under, and then Mackenzie Hughes. So it's going to feel like we want to maximize the amount of starting strokes we get. And there is some credence to that, because we've had multiple guys in that top five in both of the optimal lineup. So I'm not saying avoid that tier, but for an optimal lineup, we generally do see a lot of golfers come from outside, starting with, let's say, 2 to 3 strokes or fewer. So that's pretty interesting to me. As far as fandal points leaders go, so different than winners. The winners we had DJ last year starting 10 under, and then for that Rory at 5 under. Rory led that year in fandal points, but actually last year, it was Xander Schroffley who led in fandal points. He was starting 3 under. So I think that that's relevant. I can tweet out a chart here in a bit, too. That kind of shows a breakdown, but it's going to feel strange. It's going to feel weird, raw string golfers who are like at even par, 1 under par, but historically we do see someone in their breakthrough. And that's why I think the emphasis on scoring, so birdies and eagles is so key, because if you get that one guy in that 7,000 range, who just makes up ground, and there are plenty of candidates down there, specifically Daniel Berger, Sergio Garcia, but I think that's kind of one thing that we should keep in mind for this week. Yeah, I think that the key takeaway from me from the numbers you discussed is those punt plays, the lower salary guys. And punting is a loose term here because punting usually means, I think people take it to mean they don't care what they get. I just mean from a salary perspective, because you don't always care. But getting guys who are at the bottom end of the salary tier, starting around even par or 1 under as a chess or Mackenzie Hughes, like those can work. And there are guys who fit that pretty well this week in terms of guys I'd be willing to use personally. So I think that's kind of the big takeaway for me is I don't want to, like just use anyone down there, but I can feel leeway. Like if I feel myself feeling good about Corey Connors, Daniel Berger, someone like that, I feel like I have the agency to use them based on what we've seen here the past two years. And the thing is this year, I don't know what it looked like last year or the year before, but he mentioned some names already. Corey Connors is 7,700 on Fandall. Daniel Berger is 7,600. Patrick Reed, we don't know what his health is because he might not even play, but he's 7,300. Lockheed Neiman, who we talk about all the time, 7,200, Eric Van Roy and Billy Horschel, Sergio Garcia, Stuart Sink, all minimum salary. I honestly, I mean, I have preferences here, but aside from Reed, who I'd probably just stay away from, just due to uncertainty and Stuart Sink, like I could see the case for all these guys. So it might be a week where I try to narrow down the studs and then lock in or and then rotate in through all those different guys because they can all exceed their salary pretty easily. So I might need to whittle down the studs so that I can just rotate in all those $7,000 golfers. And I think for my personal preferences, I feel better about committing to a couple of the studs too, which makes it easier to go that same route for me as well. So we'll talk about some golfers who've done well at Eastlake in the past in just a bit. But first, football fans, the 2021 NFL season is right around the corner and Fandall is giving fans the opportunity to get in on the action of playing fantasy football. Right now, Fandall has daily best ball fantasy drafts that you can't compete in. All you have to do is head over to Fandall.com and draft your team. Pick a league with your desired number of teams, draft your squad and compete for prizes. Of course, they have private leagues as well. You can get Mac Jones as a late round pick now because Cam Newton just got cut. Head on over to Fandall today and start drafting. Eligibility restrictions apply. Go to Fandall.com or download the Fandall app for more details. Let's take into past history here at Eastlake Golf Club because, again, they've been here for a very long time, which means we've got some golfers who have done well here in the past. And the first guy is not just a course history guy, but also someone you've talked about in the past, Brandon, someone who feasts in small fields with no cut where he can kind of go all out. That's Zander Shafle, checking in at 10-5 this week. He is just too under, but he's shown in the past that he can overcome that. So what do you see with Zander here at 10-5? Yeah, I mean, he won the 72-hole score event here last year, which is how he ended up scoring the most Fandall points. He won the Tour Championship in 2017, outright as a rookie too, shot at 12 under, which, again, is around where the 72-hole scores have fallen, so like that 12-15 under. So, I mean, there are going to be birdies. It's not going to be just darts, which, I mean, last week was kind of exciting. It was very exciting because of the playoff, but I don't like that kind of golf. I found it really boring, but this week should set up a little bit better for me then from a viewing standpoint. But Shafle has actually gained strokes in all 16 of his rounds at Eastlake, according to fantasynational.com. No other golfer in this field has gained strokes in more than 79% of their rounds. Roy McElroy has gained in 22 of 28 rounds here, which is 79%. Shafle, I feel like, is kind of off the radar. He's always seemed to be more popular than, and I love Zander, anyone who knows that, I love Zander. He's always one of the most popular golfers. I feel like he's starting to be a little bit off the radar. We're getting, like, Cam Smith, some other fan favorites, possibly even Abe Ancer, just that people seem to like a lot. But it's a no-cut event. It's a course where he's thrived. I think he's not going to get as much love starting just too under. But again, we've seen guys start too under, make the optimal. We've seen Zander climb back last year and play really well here. We've seen him play well here every time he's been here. So does he do enough for you, or is the salary too high based on just how poor the starting score is? Well, let's talk about Rory, because Rory is at the same starting spot as Zander. They're both too under. So let's talk about Rory, and we'll talk about both these guys together. Rory is too under. So he's in a bit of a hole, but similar to Zander, he has done well here previously. Rory was the first guy to win at Eastlake in this current format. Did that back in 2019. He has played Eastlake seven total times. Rory has two wins and a runner-up in that time. Other wind frame was back in 2016. The runner-up was in 2014. So we know Rory can boogie here, which is interesting because the form is getting a bit better. He finished fourth at the BMW this past weekend. Did that despite losing 0.2 strokes in approach? Now that could be a bad thing, but the approach play for Rory had been red hot, heading into the FedExCup playoffs. If that comes back, he could blow up. Rory is better on Bermuda, which is the surface of this week, than Bentgrass. He can make some birdies. So he's 10-9. Zander is 10-5. Both these guys are starting too under. Brandon, like he said, they can make up ground. If you just match up like starting spot with fan dual salary, these guys are going to look over salary. But we know they can go low. So what are your thoughts on the two of them together? And do you have a strong preference between the two? I prefer Zander. I think he is just a safer bet from a fairways gains standpoint. That's pretty safe to say. He is a significantly better putter than Rory as well. So I know it's a no-cut event, and you don't have to worry about missed cuts, but hitting fairways and making pots is a very good combination for just birdie conversion. I know that distance is going to correlate stronger than fairways hit with birdies gained, but Zander is also not short. So for me, it's going to be Zander, but I don't see a whole lot of golfers who I wouldn't play. I think it's a really good balance of guys' form and their starting score. I don't really see any golfers where I'm like, this guy's salary is way too high because his starting score is really good, and I don't see any golfers kind of like the opposite where... You would want Rory to be 10-9 right now, so I think that's fair. So I don't think anyone is just an egregious salary right now, so for me, I'm not out on Rory, but for Zander, I don't know if any of that made sense to you. It does. I prefer Zander too. It is a $400 discount as well, and $400, I know it's a no-cut event, but that can do some damage this week, so I do like that extra flexibility that Zander gets you there. Great, the putting thoughts as well, so I prefer Zander. I would not be opposed to pivoting to Rory if he were to shape up his being less popular, but because of what you said about Zander, potentially people souring on him, I don't think that's going to happen. I think that from a salary perspective, from a fit perspective, from a roster A perspective, everything points towards Zander. So I'll take that. I will say though, among the guys at 2under, they're not my favorites. It's Brooks by a significant amount. Brooks is also starting 2under. He is $9,000, and if I'm going to go at 2under, I can go with multiple guys, but if I'm choosing 1, I want Brooks. Like not straight up, but relative to salary, by a mile I want Brooks. Yeah, I mean, we're both on an agreement where we're going to play Brooks. I think that it's going to be at best a 5v5 for our final bobble hat because I think Brooks is pretty much locked in. Yeah. If you put this huge check, this, I mean, I almost said this prestige, but I think that if you ran down all of these golfers from, you know, eight shots back of the lead, not eight shots back of everyone, it's always like Patrick Cantley doesn't have a 10-shot lead on the field. He has it on the bottom five he has a 10-shot lead, but I think like with Brooks and his volatility being top 10 in this field over the past year, he's actually third in Sanders, like the fifth most consistent golfer, which is kind of a key difference there too, but with Brooks being so volatile, I think that it just makes a ton of sense to take a stab on him at 9,000. It just is kind of too obvious. Yeah, I agree. So let's move down to some guys who will talk more about Brooks later on. But with some other guys with lower salaries who could move there at the board, one of them is Sergio Garcia, who we talked about last week as being someone who's been interesting. I didn't get to him in the bobble hat, but you know, did help win the head-to-head bet either way. He has minimum salary. We know the T-degree numbers are going to be good. The question is, will he putt? So talk to us about Sergio Garcia at $7,000. Yeah, I'm still kicking myself because I had talked myself into him on the show last week and didn't put him in our head-to-head, but it starts to be even part, like you said, minimum salary. And we've seen golfers fit that. Now, it is something I need to point out that five golfers started it even part. And then 10 or five more are one under. So you're getting 10 shots to make the optimal. So it can be a little bit misleading to say, definitely have a golfer in that salary tier, but the odds of it is just a one out of 10 to make the optimal. But Garcia we know has that elite T-degree in game, but he's played East Lake really well in the past, finished 15th, 9th, 9th and 10th since 2012. So it's a little bit more outdated than some other golfers. He's played here just once since 2014 when he did finish 10th back in 2017. But that's fine by me because I don't think this course is going to demand true knowledge and playing it just last year, even though there have been some renovations. But more specifically over the past three months, Garcia is fifth in the field in DataGolf's true stroke scan query in terms of stroke scan T-degree, which is awesome for a golfer minimum salary. This is pretty much the same case I laid out last week in current form to like take a long look at Serge. But you know, I missed out on him and he's now stepping into a course where he's played well, has great T-degree, and don't expect the putting to be what it was last week. But like even with okay putting, like he can make birdies and score some fantasy points at 7,000. So where are you landing with him this week? Yeah. So putting factors into birdies are better gained obviously because you got to make a putt to make a birdie usually. But I'd be a lot better at golf if I didn't have to make those birdie putts. Correct. I'd be a lot better with the irons every time to be fine. But with Sergio, he still ranks best among all golf golfers of the salary below $8,000 in birdies or better gain the past six months. Despite the bad punter, you mentioned a good T-degree and play. That's the reason he grades out so well there. $7,000 comes in playing some good golf after that event last week. So I think like if we're looking strictly at the, the guys at $7,000, Sergio to me, easily above Eric Van Royen. I know I've had some flirtations with Van Royen in the past, easily above him, above Sink, Horschel, and. There's the four at minimum. Yeah. He's easily the best guy there. Horschel's injured. Oh, sorry. I think like he's like kind of even with Neven, might prefer, actually, I don't know. Maybe I do prefer Neven. I prefer Berger and Connors for sure. But like if I really want to save a lot of sour, I think that Garcia really does make a lot of sense. Yeah. Horschel. So I'll start with the minimum sour guys. Horschel's interesting because we are getting a course with Bermuda greens and a course that rewards accuracy. And so there are a few like, you know, if this was a larger field, we'd be like, oh, hey, it's, it's a course where hitting fairways and putting on Bermuda makes sense. And that's Billy Horschel. That's like some GM Harris English too. So I think Horschel has a lot of appeal and probably won't be as popular as Garcia after the strong finish last week. But yeah, I think Garcia and Horschel both very much in play at minimum salary. Yeah. Okay. So Garcia, it's me, the preferred one, but you could talk me to Horschel probably won't get there, but I see the case. Let's talk about Scottie Scheffler. We're starting at one under. So he's in a bit of a hole, but we've seen him overcome a hole at this course previously. Last year, Scheffler opened the weekend in 17th. He surged all the way up to fifth by the end of that one. Did that mostly with his approach play? Scheffler gained five strokes there. That helped him get that fifth place finished despite losing 2.1 strokes putting and despite being in such a big hole to start things off. This time Scheffler just one under. So again, he's got a boogie, but he's done it. He's $8,500. I think that salary is low enough to make Scheffler pretty interesting for this week. And I think that last year showed you can do it here. What do you think about Scottie Scheffler at $8,500? Yeah. Very much like Scheffler. We know he can play from behind and I mean, he's already broken 60 on PGA tour. He can go low with that tee to green. He's going to get a lot of birdie chances. The only issue for me is the salary is a little bit high relative to the start whenever I can play like Daniel Berger. Yeah. So that's probably the biggest issue for me with Scheffler, but nothing specifically against the Scheffler. And that's not to say that Scheffler's salary is bad. I think it's appropriate. Right. But having Berger. Yeah, he's not as strong of a value as I would like to see. Yeah, I think that's pretty fair. I think that I would put him above Berger because like the birdie numbers are a lot better for Scheffler than for Berger. At the salary? Yes. At Sauer, I'd rather go Scheffler. Okay. I like Berger. I just like Scheffler a bit more. Okay. So it's not a negative for Berger. It's an endorsement of Scheffler. That makes sense. Let's move now to current form and talk about some guys playing. Well, we'll talk about the top end studs here. You're going to talk about Bryson DeChambeau. I'll talk about John Rom. We could probably get some Patrick Cantlay discussion in there as well. Let's talk to you first about Bryson. Pretty tough way to go down last week for sure, and obviously some frustration for him after the event. He's 12-6. Bryson is in a good spot still at 7-under. What are you seeing with him for this week? Yeah, I mean, so this is one of those. I kind of did like the hypotheticals with John Rom entering some majors where he could have had like, like three wins out of four events or something. I don't know, something crazy, but I think there's a hypothetical you could spin Bryson here too. You know, he lost that extended playoff last week because Patrick Cantlay was just like unconscious with the putter. But he, again, as I already said at the top of the show, he just kind of demolished everyone else. And it took an outlier performance from Cantlay to stick close. And it took Cantlay to, you know, just make clutch putt after clutch putt. And so we could honestly be looking at Bryson coming off a super dominant performance. If he had won by six shots, we'd be like, okay, Bryson, first of all, in that scenario, he, I don't know for sure, but I would have to imagine he would be starting 10-under with those extra FedEx cop points. But we could basically be looking at, hey, Bryson just destroyed everyone. He's starting 10-under, you know, like this could be a very different conversation. You know, was 31st at the Northern Trust with good ball striking and poor short game. But 8th at the FedEx St. Jude, which is a WGC event, the small field no cut course with Bermuda Green. So like there's kind of that. We honestly just could be looking at like, hey, we've seen Bryson do it in the FedEx Cup playoffs. He had the back-to-back wins a couple of years ago in the playoffs. And now you just can't really fade him. And it feels like maybe he's kind of ranked third behind Rahm and Cantley. So talk to me about Rahm and then we'll figure out the top of the field. Yeah. So Rahm, despite being couple of strokes back is the highest salary golfer in the field. He's tied with Cantley for win odds in terms of sports, you know, at sports books. He's four shots back, but like you look at the data golf numbers and like, okay, I get it. And that's because Rahm's form is stupid. He faded the end of the BMW and finished 9th, but he finished 9th despite, you know, what at least for him is some poor ball striking. He gained 6.9 strokes putting and that bad ball striking was a blip for Rahm. He has gained at least 10 strokes T to green in consecutive events before that one. Between then was an unmeasured event where he finished third at the open. So we know why Rahm is the highest salary guy. We know why his win odds are so low, but it's a lot of faith to have in Rahm. And it's pretty aggressive putting him effectively above Cantley when you consider the salary being higher. So do you think Rahm should be the top guy here or do we have leeway to deviate elsewhere? Maybe go Cantley over Rahm this week. What are your thoughts on the top end with Bryce mixed in there too? So I don't think it's like egregious to have Rahm as the highest salary golfer. He's starting four shots back of Cantley, but he is also starting ahead of everyone other than Tony Fino and Bryce Ndishambo. So again, it feels like, hey, he's got to make up four shots. Well, if you look at DataGolf's true strokes game query, he is at a, over the past three months, 3.75 per round adjusted for field strength over like the world baseline golfer basically, pro golfer obviously. Cantley is second at 2.6. So that's 1.25 shots per round better than Cantley. And so it's like, it's crazy. And again, we're looking at a situation where Cantley has to play at that level. If he falls back a little bit, then it's really just, you know, two shots from Fino and we love Tony Fino on this podcast. It's one shot from Bryson at a course that rewards driving accuracy. And I think DataGolf actually has, Bryson is like the biggest loser at this course. No, that's fine. I think the terminology is fine. That's the biggest, no objections. Bryson is the biggest loser at this course. Yeah. So they project him to lose 0.2 shots per round based on what stats matter here and Rom is effectively even. He's a negative 0.02. Fino is a negative 0.14 because it's just, you know, it rewards accuracy. So, you know, Rom is not going to be hurt by the course where hitting fairways helps because he's one of the more accurate drivers among those who are just super long off the tee. So, I still think I got to rank them Rom, Cantley, Bryson, and I don't see what's going to change that unless we get news that, like, the course is completely different, but that's not going to happen. Right. So if you look at the golfers at 10, 8 and higher. So, Ken Smith on up. Only two guys in that range and the top half of the field in good drives gained the past 50 rounds. Those guys are Rom and Cantley. So I think that from a corset perspective, the great out well from a, like a, if you're looking just overall game perspective, the great out pretty well. I think that for a cash game, you're deciding between those two. I think that it's one of those two guys who you want to have in your lineup. I might still go Cantley just because I want the four shots. I think that's a really nice buffer to have. Like, I can do both. You can do both. Yeah. I mean, you could for sure. Starting with both, you have 85, 50 left for four golfers. If you take a shot on, I mean, Garcia. One shot on burger. For God's sake. 76, that's 88, 67 for three golfers. It's not perfect. So, okay. So this is probably a good example, that you should just talk about. If you're playing that lineup, you're saying Rom or Cantley are going to win. Like, and there's no question in my mind that it's going to be one of those two. I think for, I could actually look Rom and Cantley and my Sims have, wow, I can't click on these cells. What is Excel doing to me? So they have a 40, about a 45% chance to win, let's say. So you're saying, okay, it's going to be either Cantley or Rom and you don't care so much about, you just want birdies, because you're admitting that your value golfers, they're not going to win. And just spoiler alert, these value golfers almost certainly not going to come back and win over everyone else. So if you're doing that, you can feel better about having four value golfers. But if you're not having value golfers, you want to make sure that you are really looking at win odds because that's going to just like determine so much this week about the Palsco. Yeah. And I think that the Cantley, Rom lineup together is very interesting. I think that, and we're going to talk about this in the bookmaker section, but like, I think getting two of those guys up top is pretty interesting, but like just getting the top two guys. And two to me, I think are a tier above the rest in terms of once you account for course fit, once you account for starting position, all that stuff. Yeah, I agree. Now, you could make the same thing and say, no, it's Rom and Bryson, whatever. You could kind of lock yourself into two of those guys. But if you have concerns about Cantley holding on to the lead after playing in that playoff, like, you know, just, you got to think about how your lineups going to go together this week. And usually I'd say don't play Rom and Cantley because they both can't win. They can't play and Rom starting where they are and Rom probably going to just kind of build himself up from there. That's viable this week, I think. Yeah. And I think that it also helps that there are some value guys with juice who could climb their way with the leaderboard, one of whom is a guy we've referenced a couple of times in Daniel Berger, $7,600, he is starting at even par this week. So Berger needs to make up ground, but he's a good golfer. So what do you see with Daniel Berger here on the field? Yeah, so I mean, it's a tall order to overcome. Again, it's not a 10 shot lead on everyone. It's a 10 shot lead on Cantley. But realistically, you're not looking at a win. Just again, not everyone has the win juice this week, I don't think. I think it's fair just to kind of say Daniel Berger, it's going to be a super outlier performance for him to come back and win. But among the 30 golfers in this field, Berger ranks ninth in true stroke scan number. So ninth out of 30th in a salary of $7,600. That salary ranks him 24th. Berger is at the bottom of the FedEx cup standing. So again, just an even par. But the form is really good. And so he's probably someone who has sequencing issues maybe with when his best performances came. But seventh U.S. open, eighth at the open, fifth at WGC FedEx St. Jude. All amazing, fairly recent performances. 56th at the Northern Trust when he had really bad putting. And 26th at the BMW with also bad putting. This is kind of like Taylor made of we know how good he is. He's a lot better than the salary indicates. He's a lot better than being just 30th tied for 26th, I guess, in the FedEx cup standings. And he's just really good at golf. And it makes sense that we just kind of consider Daniel a very close to a core play for this week. So that's kind of where I am with Berger. I think he's very, very close to a lock for me in my head to head with you. We talked about the viability of guys below $7,000. I love Corey Connors, but I'm ranking Berger above him pretty easily. And I don't think it's really a second consideration. We can be looking at a 4V4 this week. Or a 2V2 actually. Is it 2V2? I might not go. I know you're afraid. I haven't decided yet. But I think that with Berger he's the best guy below $8,000 by a decent margin, I would say. So I like Berger a lot. The other guy we referenced several times throughout the podcast is Brooks Kepka. We'll talk about him. He'll start to under so, you know, need some birdies. But I feel okay in saying that Brooks Kepka is able to make some birdies. His form is just fine. He was 31st in the Northern Trust. 22nd in the BMW. But some of that was putting. He lost a combined 2.7 strokes in those two events. And now he goes to Bermuda, which is his best surface. When Kepka played this event 2019 with the current format, he finished third, gained 4.7 strokes and approach, but lost 1.3 off the tee. Other trips here were finishes of 26, 6 and 18. So the course hasn't necessarily suited him, but he's going to go all out. I feel like the right play this week is to use Kepka. Hope the money is as big of a motivator as you think it be. And if I were, I know we talked about committing to studs and differentiating with value plays, but I think my highest exposure goal for this week is very, very likely to be Brooks Kepka. What are your thoughts on Kepka at $9,000? Yeah, I'm with you. That's once we kind of were locked in with Daniel Berger, just talked about Kali and Rahm being a cut above everyone else. And then Brooks, where we align a lot, I thought it's very possible that we have a lot of overlap in our head-to-head because I think that Brooks Kepka just has such an easy case to be made for him. Over the past year, I have him eighth in just standard deviation of his round-by-round scoring in this field, which is the volatility that you want to see and he's the to climb back now for transparency. Daniel Berger is tied for the lowest, so he's one of the most consistent golfers, but Brooks is in the 86th percentile in this field and opportunities gained over the past 50 rounds, which is Fantasy Nationals way of saying, are you getting into birdie opportunity? He is in the 79th percentile in Bermuda putting over the past 100 rounds and kind of with Kepka, what's holding him back is it's just not great but the ball striking is there and so it only takes a hot putter for Brooks to surge back up the leaderboard. Now that I'm not saying that, hey, oh yeah, he's going to win. I think he's a fine bet for sure at 50 to 1 on Fandals Sportsbook to come back and win, but he can finish top 10, top 5 pretty easily if he gets going with the putter. So I'm pretty much all in on Brooks. And it's it's hard for me to find any real issues with Kepka. I think that he's an awesome pick for this week. He is going to be in the head to head just letting you know. There's no use in hiding that. He'll be there for sure. Let's check out what the bookmakers are saying for this week. As mentioned, John, Rahman, Patrick Cantley, the co-favorites of Fandals Sportsbook, they're both plus 380. We get to Bryson DeChambeau at 5 to 1. Tony Finau is plus 650. Then there is a big dip down to Justin Thomas at 18 to 1. Dustin Johnson, Rory McElroy and Cameron Smith are all 22 to 1. Xander Shafley and Jordan Spieth checking in at 26 to 1. Abraham Anser is 34 to 1. Then we have Sam Burns, Harris English and Colin Mora-Kawa. They are running at the top group there at 37 to 1. So let's talk about the top group, Brandon, because we kind of alluded to it before. We've got four guys with win odds, shorter than 10 to 1 in one. So, John Cantley, DeChambeau and Finau. They have salaries to justify that and salaries that say, hey, you're going to pay the Piper, but it seems like we're on the same page where you might want to get two in there. Do you agree? I never like paying the Piper. I don't know what that means, but Google this might be... There are a lot of weird phrases, like aim the Piper. I just want to make sure there are a lot of old phrases. Bear the consequences of an action or activity that one has enjoyed. I enjoy using John Rahm and Patrick Cantley. I never face the consequences of my own actions. Look at me. Look at this, the consequences of my own actions. Crazy. So, do I want two of these golfers in my lineup? Yeah. Yeah. Because again, with the optimals that we've seen here. So, 2019 we had guys starting 3rd, 5th and 6th and then last year 1st, 3rd and 11th. So, kind of, it's about that two to three range for sure. These also are the best golfers in the field, regardless of where they're starting. And I think it's really easy to lose the fact of there's still money on the line for finishing, let's say, 5th instead of 6th. Like, yeah, Xander for instance probably has a really hard path to coming back and winning. I have about 1% in my win simulations which seems really low but it's not that he has to chase down just Patrick Cantley. It's all those guys in front of him, so that's a big part of it. But for me, definitely having possibly 3 if I can talk myself into multiple low, low end value plays, but I'm probably going to limit things to like one value plan at 7000 range per lineup. I won't get to 3, I know that. I will get 2 in a good number of lineups. I will say though I'm not going to have 2 in every lineup. I think that going 1 like if you go a Cantley burger and then just pepper that mid-range with foods you could rise with the leaderboard I think that's also a really fun lineup. I haven't talked at all about the mid-range which is kind of a it's like a small mid-range with 8 guys and what we would consider a mid-range but tons of great golfers and we'll talk about them in our player picks but that is something that's worth calling out. N5 and 9-5, Xander Sweet. Answer Sweet. Love Answer. English Love him. He's good. I think he's a great tournament play because it's that he can hit fairways and putt on Bermuda and English does. Speaking of putting on Bermuda, Sam Burns is 9-9. Love him. 9-9. He's a runner as well. Moira Kawabunga got Hovland, Louis. Those are all guys who 9-5 and 10-5. That's a sick range. I think that if you're not going to go with 2 you go with 1 and then just pepper the daylights out of that range. I think that that's the other really viable path this week. Yeah. It's so hard because I like so many golfers I mean I will make obviously make cuts but I think the worst range for me is like 10-9 to 12-6 which feels scary but that's like your Bryson's Finau, JT, DJ JT as in Justin Thomas for anyone who doesn't know Jordan Spieth and Rory I think they're a little bit over salaried for it's not egregious but I think there's not particularly good value there. I agree. So I think the two viable routes this week are two guys in the upper range and then figuring out from there or one guy up there and then just abusing that mid-range. Those are the two routes like the most. Things now shifted much from a betting perspective this week because odds came out later. It seems like there hasn't been a lot of action on any golfers specifically. It's so hard to bet on I think just because of the starting scores and I factor that into my simulations obviously but it's kind of hard to wrap your head around a little bit so it's just a weird week but hey if you want you can check out numberfire.com and check out my win simulations. Wow. Plug. Plug. Numberfire.com Tremendous stuff. Which lower salary golfers have the stand out to you? Lou Lou I can't call him Lou Lou Oostazen which I wish he would go by Lou Oostazen because that would just be a nightmare but Lou Oostazen is 45 to 1. His size is 9500. That's it's tough because we don't know what his health is or commitment level honestly but he's starting 300. Sung Jae someone you cut off in that discussion of like 10-5 to 9-5. He's 9200. But again fairway and Bermuda specialist so I think he's intriguing. He's 50 to 1. Same as Brooks Kepka who starts a shot worse than Sung Jae at 200. He's obviously 9000. We talked about him but he's a little bit too late. So I'm probably not going to get to Hideki but again, would it surprise anyone if Hideki just starts piling up birdies? I don't think so. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Surprises you know I want to hear your thoughts on Sung Jae though because Sung Jae you were slacking you before about how the ball striking has been getting better. He knows how to find a fairway. He's a very good Bermuda putter. He's not in our player picks but I feel like he is worthy of being talked up as well. As much as I love Brooks I don't want to totally overlook Sung Jae because he had $200 more. Yeah. Actually last entering last week Austin Swain who does our UFC podcast a lot of our NASCAR content asked me about Sung Jae and I was like he played we talked sometimes about lineups and stuff let's say what sport does he not do? Alright cool. I think he does everything but he was like hey you know asking me about Sung Jae and I was like long-term form is not particularly strong but then he finished third last week and I felt like an idiot but then I looked back at his event log and like the irons have been back now back is a stretch because when he came on the scene we thought he was like the next like approach god and he turned out to be not that now the irons are there we know he's it the driver is pretty much always on point with him and he's generally a good putter so like with the irons show up there's a lot to like about Sung Jae I think again Harris English Billy Horschel Sung Jae M a few others but they kind of fit that specialist mode and it's easy to like lose sight of that this week because we're worried about the starting scores but I think Sung Jae is a great play and I know it sounds like I'm talking about everybody now but again it's the 30 of the best golfers in the world I think you make a case for a lot of them Yeah. I think that Sung Jae is someone I want to make sure I don't overlook despite I'm going to shovel in all the Brooks I can handle. Whether this week it looks great great we can to play some golf no objections here so let's move now to our player picks for the tour championship starting off in the top tier Brandon in this upper range who are you targeting for this week at Eastlake Golf Club I'm just going with John Rom he's the best play to me even though he's starting four shots off of Patrick Cantlay's score again two other golfers above him with Bryson and Tony Fino ahead of him so I mean I don't know if I need to say anything about John Rom at this point but my simulations do prefer Cantlay outright because of the hyper recent form and the starting score edge but you just can't pick John Rom he just can't do it yeah it's it's tough to say anything negative about him as far as Cantlay goes he's my top salary guy he has bad history at Eastlake but he's steady he has a massive advantage here with the strokes so I would like to get there Cantlay should be solid no matter how the course plays he ranks 11th in distance and 11th in good drives gained he ranks 8th in strokes off the tee and I'm sure that Cantlay did most of his work at the BMW on the greens he loses that edge of a permuted this week but he gained 4.6 at the Northern Trust 5.8 at the St. Jude 14.3 at the Memorial 9.3 at the PGA the ball striking is still great even if it wasn't great last week when he still won the freaking event Cantlay ranks third in true strokes gained the past six months he will start two strokes over the field I would like I don't maybe I'm not too low on Fino is that dumb on my part so again like we're getting into that territory where I've said nice things about probably 20 of the 30 golfers in the field which is a little bit scary Fino doesn't set up particularly great for this course now his puddings getting a lot better he did changes putter and I I just wish this was like there was just more of like a database of guys made equipment changes but his puddings been trending up lately with a new putter data golf does have him as one of the biggest losers at the course as big of a loser as Bryson though no no no Tony Fino probably the coolest guy on the tour but I just don't see myself getting there and I would it would not surprise me though if Fino goes out to win starting eight under par wins 15 million and people are like well it wasn't like a real wins though or something so it feels like it could happen but yeah that's fair I think that the way I'm doing the top four is Robin Cantley in one tier Bryson in a tier by himself then Fino in a tier by himself and I will say I can say now I won't have any Fino I would also not be that shocked if I finish building and I don't have Bryson either I think that I am so committed to having enough two Cantley plus Rom lineups Cantley by himself plus enough Rom by himself where I would not be shocked if that comprises every single lineup I do this week so Fino pretty definitely out I would not be shocked if Bryson is out too and what about the tier below that because I think we're both skipping over them Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McElroy do you think you have any of them because I might not I am more likely to have them than Fino I'll say that and it's not an active avoidance for me with them it's that I want Caroline Rom and that I like the tier below them pretty well too I think I could get this Spieth potentially Cant Smith too I know Cameron Smith is not like a great not the best accuracy guy not the best ball striker in general but I could see myself getting there so I think that Spieth and Smith are interesting but that's mostly because they're on the bottom end of that tier I would say I like the Dingo Cant Smith but Spieth also a negative point too at Eastlake according to data golf so he's tied with Bryson right it's the biggest loser but we love Jordan Spieth so there's that let's check out the other high salary golfers here I was going to go with Cant Smith but I reconsidered in what was Zander for a salary savings of 300 I think he's going to go overlooked although the Fancier sports tags don't quite say that so if Zander is going to be super chalky I will just go back to Cant Smith who starts three shots better than Zander I talked about his elite history already at Eastlake but it's hard to see him getting talked up so much but I guess he is already I'll wait and see there 66 percentile in adjusted T-degree over the past year in my database great Bermuda putter irons are good one of the few long and accurate drivers we have it just feels like super safe super obvious to go with Zander in an event that's no cut he's just going to go out and play his own golf against the world's best if that's what brings it out in him he's not going to be the focus and not really even be shown if he's not in a featured group feels like a Zander top three week that made a lot of sense I pulled up the Fancier tags once you brought it up and Cantley is 11th it's very early but he only has two tags that's behind FINAW JT and ROM ROM is like the runaway guy I feel like Cantley is going to be under rostered relative to where he should be based on that let me look here they have so he is that might be a little bit sensitive to some salary things because he has higher salary than ROM on a different site that shall not be named maybe that's why and a higher percentage of the salary cap yeah which I think ROM should be the highest salary so I think it's yeah I still think that there's a possibility he's a bit less rostered than he should be so about Abraham answer my second high salary guy he will start at 4 under which is actually not that bad and there are a lot of things that work in answer's favor after accounting for that he is not a distance guy but this is also not a distance course good drive rates backtested well for me what we say distance guy and accuracy guy too much not a long boy nailed it answer's not a long boy he leads the field in good drives game the past 50 rounds per fantasy national he's also 10th in approach 16th in birdies are better gain and 15th in Bermuda putting but I think that the overall profile should perform well here the lingering weakness is the around the green play for answer but based on data gulfs numbers based on finishing data the past couple years that matters a lot less here than other spots so I feel good about answer at 10-4 also should mention that if you look at past rankings of golfers who have done well here in 2019 if you look at the golfers who have gained the most strokes for the full season they actually were about 20 spots worse than the guys who lost strokes lost at least two strokes overall at this course so around the green play just really doesn't seem to matter that much so I like Aib Aib would be my I would have featured him over Zander over Cam Smith if you didn't get to the sheet first gets a huge boost at a course such as east lake we know that he's gonna hit fairways he's gonna definitely he's got such a smooth swing but he's not the best ball striker but he's above field average and just really balanced aside from the wedge play so and again I don't think that's gonna matter too much just like 3rd percentile in driving distance 97th percentile in fairways game you put that at a course where you don't have to be long that is gonna help Aib answer this week so love him Aib answer not a long boy but the right boy this week let's move down to the mid range which we do like a lot this mid range is sick what do you see in there? I'm gonna go with Victor Hovland at 96 I've been on Hovland for a while now also a golfer who just gets a boost on a course that rewards driving accuracy he's in a 79th percentile there he can get into scoring position and score well 97th percentile in opportunities gained 86th percentile in birdie or better rate game so still converting at a pretty high rate just kind of a baseline putter on Bermuda starting at 3 under though for $9600 in terms of his salary on Fando I like that just an elite ball striker we know that the salary is right I just like I can't really nitpick Victor Hovland and as much as we love the guys at the top and we like these value plays we're talking about some names here that's like why don't I just build a balance line up this week but talk to me about more cala yeah it was I actually hovland initially like I'd written out all my notes from hovland change them on went to more cala so I like them both a lot I could have gone with either here but more cala in a funk it's not a good Bermuda putter but I think the larger sample says that he could be like a rockstar level play here at $9600 more cala starts at 3 under he is the guy with the highest salary of that tier but he also ranks fourth among all golfers in true strokes gained the past six months per data golf in addition to the putting the other weaknesses chipping but again that may not matter as much this week even with the struggles recently more cala still ranks third in the field in good drives gained he ranks first in approach I'm going to bet on a bounce back here which might not work but I'm fine shooting for upside in the small field and like nothing to me says upside more than calling more cala at $9700 regardless of where he's starting I think that that's just like I think we need to go here so hovland more cala to me both great plays rather than choosing one I'd rather just choose bowl so that's that's where I'll skewin on those guys it's fine by me more cala super accurate 93rd percentile and fairways gained seventh in standard deviation of his scoring which kind of implies some upside especially with a generally high baseline for him because he's just a good golfer so a lot to like about more cala this week who else do you like here in the ring I'm a big hitter Sam Burns so there you go yes long long boy Sam Burns great mustache game if that if there is one I don't know if that actually it can exist but he gains 0.8 strokes per round on Bermuda with a putter over the past 100 rounds like we play Sam Burns on Bermuda courses a lot now he's long he is long he's long boy not necessarily the most accurate golfer but I don't think that that's enough to get away from Sam Burns especially this salary of 9900 starting for under I think that feels probably too high for a lot of people with more cala and holland right below that so kind of plan some leverage here with Sam Burns again we typically look at him on longer courses but having driving distance isn't a bad thing ever just kind of that Bermuda specialist who can who can make a lot of birdies and while I'm here I still think Harris English and some GM in the mid-range are very much in play but I ranked them obviously behind Burns how would you rank Burns more a cow and holland um holland burns more a cow which is probably the dumbest thing I've ever said to rank more cala below I even first I like more cow most in that tier followed by holland and Burns but like I think I'll be especially in those like single stud lineups I will be in this range enough where I'll still get to Sam Burns despite having third among those guys now I'm going more cala give me more cala first okay I was going to offer a head to head no no holland more cala burns do you want to do holland versus more cala head to head yes and I guarantees that more cala will dominate this week okay so I'm going to lock more cala into the bobble hat just kidding not actually but either way okay so we have more I have more cala head fan dual points and you have uh holland which means you get a one stroke lead over me get no sorry they're both the 300 just getting oh yeah yeah okay so they're starting same spot either way I was like Sam Burns more cala bunga baby my second mid salary guy is technically not a mid salary guy he would count as a value but I'm kind of hearing of his mid range guy this week and that's Brooks Kepka um I just feel like the gap between the guy starting at two under which is Rory Xander and Kepka is absurd Kepka ranks 13th in good drives gained 15th in approach 11th in birdies are better games 7th in putting and that's in events where he's actively said he's not trying that hard uh that alone should be enough for him to be higher salary than $9,000 and we've seen him be full Brooks recently he was 6th at the open 4th at the U.S. open 2nd at the PGA so when he once turned it on he can still do that Kepka ranks 11th in data goals true strokes gained the past 6 months but he's 18th in salary I think he feels like a no brainer this week so I love Brooks Kepka any final thoughts for you on him uh yeah I love Kepka um you also excluded Jason Kochrak and Kevin Na starting at two under that was not an accident with Na at least do you want Kochrak later I do so we'll talk about Kochrak later with Na it was not an accident I know he's been really good recently but nah let's move down to the value tier guys below $9,000 who you got there this week um I'm gonna go Corey Connors 7700 79th percentile opportunities gained just 24th percentile in birdie conversion because he can't put 90th percentile in adjusted ball striking though over the past year that is 4th best by if you just rank them I know percentiles are not as helpful in a 30 golfer field as they are in a 156 golfer field but um salary is 23rd so 4th best ball striker long term hard to hit on that best long term golfer in my database among golfers with sub $9,000 salaries and super super accurate so I think that's gonna bump him up the the board for me this week I have mentioned I prefer Berger over Connors I know you have Berger later on but I still like Connors and we'll still use him he'd be one of the rotational guys down there my first low salary guys Scotty Schaeffler we talked about him in the course history section but I like the form enough to be in on him from that perspective too Schaeffler is someone who can score well while starting out at just one under because you need to get birdies but you can get those he ranks 4th in the field and birdies are better gained the past 50 rounds Hovland may also get a slight bump up due to the emphasis on quality drives he is 14th in distance but ranks 4th in stroking off the T Schaeffler gained a 4.1 in approach to the BMW finished his 22nd but that was mostly because the driver was more middling there if the driver comes back a bit this week he will get some birdies it also helps that Bermuda in a very very very small sample for Schaeffler is his least bad putting surface so it's not a positive but it also helps that it's not a negative there so I like Schaeffler a lot 85 you talked before about how he might be seeing a bit like not a value I agree with that but I still like him quite a bit what are your thoughts of Schaeffler here? Yeah I mean I like him he's lumped in as like an other to consider for me among the lower salaried picks but just with the salary savings I get on Daniel Berger it's really difficult for me to prioritize Schaeffler so again it's a fair salary but just not popping up as a value and for me a big part of that again is Daniel Berger at 7600 who's my final love for the week starts at even par but it's just the second best long-term golfer in the field below 9000 ranked second in approach over the past six months seventh T-degree according to data golf over the past three months second in approach third T-degree he understands how in fairways gained over the past 50 rounds in a positive baseline Bermuda putter so again not necessarily a specialist because he's better than just being a specialist or someone that we kind of bump up in certain situations but he checks the box of hitting fairways and putting on Bermuda Yeah I think that he's just kind of an epic again he along with Brooks the big lock for our head to head for this week my second low salary guy is Jason Kochrak not discussed yet I do like Connors I do like Berger a lot but we haven't talked about Kochrak yet he is $8200 I think he's pretty fun he'll start at 2 under which is same level as Xander, Rory and Brooks when Kochrak played Eastlake back in 2019 he gained 4.9 strokes in approach he gave most of that in the greens but Kochrak has been putting better recently ranked 16th in Bermuda putting the past 100 rounds his irons got back on track last week he had lost in three straight events but then at the BMW Kochrak gained 3.4 there he has distance he is not erratic off the tee he ranks 15th and good drives gained I think that Kochrak grades that well at $8200 and very willing to go there we know you like Berger more than Schaeffler where do you rank Schaeffler relative to Kochrak so excluding Berger entirely where do you rank Schaeffler and Kochrak compared to each other Schaeffler over Kochrak for me by a wide margin or no um enough any Kochrak for you or no probably not I can't get ahead out of this because like it's a decky there and I like a decky too so can't get ahead to head out we did get the one with Moorakawa versus Hovland let's finish up here with Winpix and Brandon you mentioned I still have a shot to win this I am 26 units behind you so I need to win with like someone who's 26 to 1 or longer I need you to not win I know I mentioned like I'm not going to just throw out long shots for long shots but I think actually this week there are guys who I like who are longer than that and guys I'd actually be willing to like look towards those guys to me are Collin Moorakawa and Brooks Kepka you could block me by taking both but I have faith in you as a human so I'm going to just tell you those are my picks Collin Moorakawa and Brooks Kepka I think both those guys great out really well well those are two guys who I recommended already this week so now like I can be nice guy and play this out even though I gifted you Patrick Cantley's win last week so I've been struggling with this because I easily could have just blocked you because I have that ability but I will go with this I'll go with well what I would say is if you think those are the two best bets in the field block me with one of them like take Brooks out or take Moorakawa take out one of them and then go somewhere out there with his second pick how about that okay I'm going to go block probably probably Moorakawa I guess okay so you can have Moorakawa who's your second one pick then I'll go Cam Smith okay so Cam Smith 22 to one and Moorakawa 37 I also have Moorakawa 37 and Brooks at 50 would you have gone Brooks as like the best value on the board had I not gone there yeah like but I guess Moorakawa is probably just more likely to win I guess okay okay so I've got Brooks if Brooks wins I win the betting picks this year if Smith or Moorakawa or anyone else wins then you win so it's all in on Brooks Kepka for the tour championship I look forward to the endless tilt if Kepka wins yeah that's never going to end the DJ won from last year has never gone away so that never will that will never go away either we'll see maybe if Kepka wins we can call it a wash I don't know we'll see either way the bobble hat will also be decided this week next week correct correct when's the Ryder Cup so it's it should be no event next week some weird event I don't remember the name of it then the Ryder Cup okay so we'll see if they have a contest of the Ryder Cup they have not in years past but I wouldn't be shocked if they add something here so we'll see about that but no show next week here on the heat check fantasy podcast but we'll tweet about the winner of the bobble hat on Sunday once it is included it's the Fortinet Championship I've never heard of that before it's Silverado but Fortinet is it like a bush live version of like Fortnite or something or what is this Fortinet Cybersecurity okay well they're probably going to hack our computers now they said we have no idea they are so that's fun if we're not here in two weeks it's because well it's probably because we've quit or something out of it either way it's not because of them but either way that is all that we have here for this week if you want more thoughts from Brandon on the tour championship make sure you swing by today 3.30pm eastern on the fandom YouTube, Twitch, Facebook and Twitter pages pick his brain on betting in DFS for this week ask him any question you've got he'll pull up his spreadsheets and let you know his thoughts on those questions also make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed wherever you get your podcasts PGA, UFC, NASCAR, MLB NFL returning one week from Thursday so a lot of reasons to subscribe to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast Feed wherever you get your podcasts and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Brandon, the people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there? I'm at GDULA13 GDULA13 and I'm at Jim Sonnis you can also follow the FANDULA Podcast Network at FANDULA Podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today good luck to you this week enjoy the tour championship enjoy seeing those DFS scores go up and enjoy what should be a fun head to head this week for the Bubble Hat Champion this has been the Heat Check Fantasy Podcast powered by Number Fire