 Welcome back folks, Dow. Dow just shows right now trading up $128 a year. The Nasdaq up $293. S&Ps are up $42. It was a fast 20 points down. You're going to love this market. Let's go over now, man. Mr. Steve Rhodes, as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour. And don't forget, folks, Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day, one to two Eastern stands of time. Also great newsletter, Mastering Probability. Now, it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter, Mastering Probability. Come over to our website at TFNN. You're going to go into newsletters. You'll see Mastering Probability on the right-hand side. You just hit subscribe. You get Master Probability for one month for $149. You get it for $6.95, which is the savings of $199 or 22%. You can get it for a year for $11.95, which is the savings of $593 or 33%. Now, they all bottom line. Come back with a 30-day money-back guarantee, folks. You can go check it out. You like it, right? You're going to get charged. You don't like it. For some reason, it doesn't work for you. You get your money back. Check it out. Great time to get a trading newsletter, folks. That's the bottom line. Steve Rhodes, what's going on? Hey, do you get snow flurries up there in the great white north of Tampa? Clearly, you know, on Saturday? No, we didn't. It just sounds like Old Man Winters attacked you a little bit. Oh, it's a little bit cold. Yeah, no, no, I know. I sound a lot worse than I am. That's the bottom line. I'm good, but this is leftover, I guess. That's what it is, you know? Yeah. Boy, was it cold here over the weekend? Oh, listen, we're little babies. When I was listening to you, you're cracking up when you're saying it's 35 degrees. By the way, folks, where Steve is, is always about 10 degrees hotter than where we are, because he's lower in the south. Tampa's here, and Delray's down here. So that was surprising. I know. What a cold front, man. But that's it. It's 70 degrees out now, folks. That's true. Come on down and visit us. Exactly. So let's pick up where we less left off, which was the seasonal perspective for the Dow, which typically tops and bottoms in the month of January. So on average, the top comes in around January 6th, and the bottom comes in around January 30th. So folks, this is an 86-year cycle that we have out here. So we take a look at this year. The Dow actually topped on January 5th. That's when it made its high. And at this stage here, the month is over. We know how the markets are rallying right now. On January 24th. Pretty cool how this cycle has worked out. Now, what we look for, Tom, and everybody that's listening, what we look for is some type of pattern completion near these turn dates. So we don't just use those dates as definitive, and it doesn't have to be on that date. It just needs to be near that date. So we know that we're looking for some type of turn. So the top on January 5th was actually what we referred to as a TD-9 count top. So perfect where we've got this blue arrow. If we look at the bottom, it turned out that it was a buy the deep. It was an A to B equal CD to the downside. It made its move to about the 2.618 level. And how I make a determination of when an A to B equal CD pattern completes is it needs to form some type of reversal candle. So in this case here, the market's moving lower. It needed to generate a bullish reversal candle. It did that last Monday, which was just a wild trading day. And at the end of the day, it generated a bullish hammer candle. So that was a confirmation of a bottom for the January 24th low. Now this past Friday, the Dow actually confirmed a second bottoming signal. And that's what I refer to as the roads mint and indicator bottom. That was confirmed with this bullish and golfing candle out there. Now, both these patterns, folks, the TD-9 count, the roads mint and indicator signal. I teach subscribers there in your archive workshops. So I'll try the newsletter for the next 30 days out there. You'll be able to learn these patterns. So today, it looks like we're going to get it, although I'm not looking at the active market right now, a close above it's what I refer to as the oscillator and change line. A close today above 34, 8, 16 is going to suggest that we should get a further rally. So it really ties into your opening segment of a counter trend move that is inside of the market. So to figure out where the Dow is headed to, what I like to do is then change over and take a look at the futures charts. And that's what the, here we're taking a look at a daily and upper left, a weekly and the upper right, monthly and the lower left and a quarterly and the lower right. So as we take a look at the futures chart and then the daily for the Dow is in the upper left hand corner, the first target, because price is above a bullish structured profile, as long as price remains above 34, 374, price then should go to the upper range, which is the top of that profile, which is up at 38, 054. But before it gets there, Tom, there's this nice little trend line in the swarm. So that becomes the next target to the upside. It's around the 35, 500 level and that is for the Dow. So the next question should be for folks that are looking at the seasonal cycle is are the markets going to rally into the May timeframe or is this time different? And what I believe the answer to that question is this time may very well be different. And the reason is, or one of the reasons is because we have a yearly, an annual TD9 Count Top. And you and I, Tom, we talked about this probably four, five, six, seven weeks ago as we were preparing for 2022. Markets were rallying. I'm sure people were saying, what's this guy talking about? Yeah, you know, Steve, this one, folks, I'm telling you, listen, listen here, because this is, this is going to be really cool, Steve, because of that yearly one. Yes. Because like even, you know, I mean, my take is that's the counter trend bounce, but we all know that, hey, man, if this grabs a lot of strength, it could be something different, but that yearly TD9 is a big deal, man. Yeah. It is a big deal. Yeah. And that's why I say this really could be different. I want folks to remember it was the, this daily TD9 Count Top on January 5th that helped us to identify the top out there. So therefore, I think we could be looking at a significant top, and that's significant top, folks, if it really does take hold, then so far it has. So until it's proven otherwise, it has taken hold, and we could be looking for a move lower for the next two to three years out there. Now, many folks, Tom, this is what I always find is amazing. Many people, not you, but many people, if you take a look at just the national media out there, they think that the move lower that took place last week was because the Fed is talking about raising interest rates. But that conclusion is factually incorrect if we take a look at the last two decades, the last 20 years out here. And here at the bottom of the chart is the Fed discount rate. And if we take a look at the Fed's funds right out here, we can see back in 2003, it began moving higher. If we go and take a look at what the Dow did during that same timeframe, it moved higher. We have an even more recent event than that. And that's 2016, when the Fed began raising interest rates, what happened to the stock market, it also continued to move lower. It also continued to move higher out there. So the Fed raising interest rates, folks, is not going to be the thing that croaks the market. So then what is it? If it's not interest rates that are going to cause a decline, then what is it that's going to cause that move lower? And one possible answer is war, because stock markets, Tom, they do not like war. I mean, they just absolutely hate war. And what's nice about that is you and I, we can go back, take a look at stock charts, take a look at price behavior and prove or disprove that theory. If we go back to June 25, 1950, we look at the Korean War, North Korean Army, they crossed the border on June 25, the Dow here continues to move lower. It moves lower until the market senses some type of feeling of positive optimism. In this case here was Task Force Smith, which generated that optimism inside of the U.S. If we go and take a look at Pearl Harbor, soon as we saw the attack, we can see that the Dow continued to move lower, and it was the battle of the Coral Sea, May 7, 1942, that generated that feeling of optimism out here. If we take a look at the Persian Gulf War, we had several instances where there was a sense of a positive outcome, a positive resolution that led to the rebound. It was the final Operation Desert Storm that commenced on January 16, 1991, that put in that bottom. Here's Operation Rocky Freedom, the same type of thing. Here's the Cuban Missile Crisis, the same type of thing out there. So, folks, it's all about optimism, and the key is that when wars or skirmishes begin, it's not until you get that sense of optimism in the U.S. that we see bottom. So, in summary, if you believe the U.S. is likely to be drawn into a war or a skirmish, then use the counter-trend rally that Tom is talking about out here to adjust your portfolio. If you don't think there's any kind of war, then maybe the market moves sire to Maine. I don't think that's the situation. You're going to love it. Great rundown, Steve. Really easy to get his website, his newsletter, folks. Come over to TFNN. You're going to hit newsletters. Mastering probability. Steve, have a great one. Stay fun. Look forward to the show tomorrow. Thanks, Tom. Thank you. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.