 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm or today We are getting you said for Tokyo 2020 in the summer Olympics by bringing on Drew Dinsick Whale cap are gonna swing by and break down his thoughts on Everything literally everything to get you said for the summer games. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over at the powerink comm and ed we had the Olympics coming up We have the NBA finals trapping up. We had the open championship last week. We have NFL news Everywhere it's kind of hard to keep up and going down right now. How are you doing? I'm doing great. I have no complaints I've had a lot of fun digging more into track and field and then I ever have I'm a huge fan of the sport, but you have to be more than a fan to bet it. So looking forward to talking about that Happy that Milwaukee got it got it done in the NBA finals That was a there was a pretty awesome series. I talked to someone casually on the street He's like, yeah, stop paying attention after Phoenix went up to zip It's like what oops oops you missed a lot. Yeah, and the way that they that that series played out I think was interesting. We could talk about this in covering the past But I don't think it's interesting to talk about it here where you were talking last week about how you judged those two teams and How it related to the way you wanted to bet things where you could Take Phoenix plus four and a half or game four or you could take the buck series price a plus 200 and I Think that the thought process that you had behind that really showed the value of that with the way that series played out Oh, cool. I'm glad you think so. I mean I was I mean, I yeah, I think that I think the analysis is a sound but That's that's not exactly how I thought it would turn out. I really thought it was gonna go back to game seven. Yeah, but Yanis was amazing good for him and Just, you know, it's it's nice I mean, they've gotten a lot of grief over the last couple years. Yeah for being an awesome team during the regular season and just completely Completely playing awful in the playoffs. So that that was not the case in this series There was still a fire booting holes are signed at the parade That was still there which seems Little harsh, but you know harsh harsh, but the Bucks the the NBA finals championship Champions and grass them on that and grass any kind of bucks ticket as well and used Ed's logic Maybe grab the bucks at plus 200 to win the finals prior to game in number four as mentioned We're gonna talk to Drew Dinsick today. You can find him on Twitter at whale underscore capper He of course is the host of the bet the edge podcast for NBC sports and the host of the deep dive podcast We've had drew on to talk so many different sports only appropriate to have him on to talk all the sports here for the Tokyo Olympics Talk about how to bet them. We're gonna see where he sees value in individual markets. Talk about his swimming background Talk about metal counts and all that so it should be a whole lot of fun But first before we do that make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcasts radio calm you name that you can find us there and while you're there You like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well NFL season coming up quick So get those subscriptions in now to get podcasts as they go live each and every day Also to talk back about last week with the open championship We had Brandon Gadoula on to preview that so let's go back and see how things went for the open championship covering the past as Mentioned last week. It was Brandon Gadoula on previewing the open championship. You can find Brandon on Twitter. I could do with 13 He is off enjoying a vacation right now So he won't see it not that he checks Twitter that often anyway, but either way he won't see it But either way I'd follow him on Twitter. I could do with 13 Collin more cow one. He was not one of Brandon's outrides He liked Xander Shafley Patrick Cantley Tony Fina Lucas Herbert for outrides But Fina and Xander both golfed well just couldn't quite hang on with the leaders there And you said he watched on Sunday any takeaways for you from Colin more a cow is victory there So I've watched the three of the four majors I've watched the last round and it struck me like what an outlier were watching So for a golfer, you know that last stretch Like they could you have to play well to come out first out of 150 golfers or whatever it is, right? And yeah, he clearly played well. I thought yeah But do you know what I mean? Like yeah, there's in some sense You're always watching an outlier performance if you're watching the very tail end of a broadcast at a major So I thought that was interesting. I actually wrote about Tony Fina top 20 Actually, we're gonna about to talk about that. So yeah, yeah Yeah, it was great big fan of Tony Fina as a result of that but calm or cow. I just He's so young. He looks young too. So like that that helps add to the mistake I would say he's precise off the tee such a good iron player and when he putts Good things happen. And that's what we saw throughout this entire weekend So really fun to watch claw more cow in his ascent here recently the not now writes a Brandon He had a Victor Hauvin at minus one or two over Louis West Hazen Louis just disgusting hot streak in majors continued. He finished third at 11 under so Pastry major finishes for Louis West Hazen second second third Seems like he's got this thing figured out by now Brandon also had Tiro Hatton and minus one 12 over Shane Lowry Hadn't miss a cut Larry finished 12th. So Brandon was white hot for the Masters when we talked to him last time Some regression had to come at some point and that seemed like it happened here But you know, I still trust Brandon for everything here and the regression comes for all of us I am looking forward to hearing Brandon's thoughts on the Olympics coming pretty soon. So tune in for that I think you have simulations for both the men's and women's Olympics over on number fire calm You mentioned Tony Finau. I had Finau to finish top 20 which was plus 210 it hit barely I'll take it wins a win for sure. He finished 15th. He shot a 67 on Sunday I was at a wedding and we were watching on Saturday and he had a couple of erratic shots And we were getting set for the wedding and I was a little nervous with old Tony But he did come back with a nice Sunday finished 15th. I'll take the plus 210 hit there No objections here with Tony Finau and had you said you talked about that on your email, too Yeah, I wrote about it in my email the next day partially because of your analysis partially because of branding a duo and also partially because of abnormally distributed on Twitter He's a pro better. He has been on Rob his old podcast really good. Listen and So anyways, all three of you you guys liked Tony Finau. I wrote about it. I bet it. So thank you very much But I also wanted to point out like it was really interesting for me to do that analysis because I Definitely trust Brandon's results. Yeah, I've been following his stuff for every major this year and I've normally distributed Results were very different. So it shows you I have no idea what the guy's doing except I know that he's a PhD level Researcher, so I thought that was interesting and the other thing that was interesting is is more cow I had the highest odds in his projections so Yeah, for me golf like I'm never running golf numbers But it's interesting for me to get a lot of people's opinions look at other people's numbers and It kind of helps me be a consumer of other people's numbers I got it like my customers are consumers of mine. So yeah, it's definitely helpful Well, you because you then you know what your consumers want which is good Also with a normally distributed you mentioned that he was on Rob's podcast So I listened to it on your recommendation and it was awesome He's talking about living in like Montana Canadian border, so yeah If you have not listened to the circles off podcast in general with Rob Pizzo, I'd recommend that but that episode specifically he's he bets on like the The truck series in NASCAR, which is like the double A of NASCAR I love the truck series is super fun to watch But I haven't found anyone who like bets it hardcore before so that was fun, too So I mean how much can you get down on the truck series? I mean I assume plenty if I had to guess but like I haven't when the Covid break was happening last year. I did enough vicinity stuff and that was fun But didn't get into trucks. So I would check him out and normally distributed Episode with Rob Pizzola on the circles off podcast was really fun to listen to and if you have not listened to it I would recommend it if he signs Tony Fina on calm or a cow. He is doing something, right? Let's look back at last week now Let's get set for this week and next week too because we have the Tokyo Olympics coming up We're gonna break down that with Drew Dinsick. He is on Twitter at whale underscore capper He of course has his new podcast relatively new over at NBC Sports the Bet the Edge podcast is Sarah Perlman I can find that in these show notes over a number far a link to that podcast there Really fun listening of course. He's still doing the deep dive podcast as well We're gonna get his thoughts on the Tokyo Olympics medal counts and much more But first the Olympics are back as the world's best athletes gather in Tokyo for a summer showdown Fandal is giving fans an exclusive opportunity To get in on the action with the USA gold medal bonus All yet to do is set over to Fandal Sportsbook and place 100 plus dollars in wagers on the Olympics prior to July 26 So still a couple days to get in on this You'll be rewarded a $1 bonus in psych credit for each gold medal the United States wins at the Olympics Regardless if you're wager wins or loses show your support for team USA and have a fan duel today Must be 21 plus and present Colorado, Iowa, Illinois Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee or Virginia Bonus issued as a non the throwable psych credit that expired in seven days max bonus $50 Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler in Colorado 105 2 2 4700 in Iowa 1-800 bets off in Indiana 1-800 9 with it for confidential help in Michigan 1-800 2707 117 or in Tennessee call the red line 1-800 889 9 7 8 9 covering the present Let's bring due dinsic into covering the spread now to talk about Tokyo 2020 and the summer Olympics and drew we've had you on to talk basketball NFL tennis Everything and now we're gonna take the the sports knowledge and just toss it in a blender Because there are like 90,000 sports to talk about for the Olympics. How are you doing today? Oh, I couldn't be happier This is one of those rare For once every four years in this case five years that you really get to kind of flex your handicapping muscles and really try something new It's interesting. It's different. I bet pretty heavily into the Rio Markets and it was a great experience. I got into the winter Olympics betting as well last cycle So this will be the third Olympics that I really heavily kind of handicapped some of the the markets and second summer Olympics for me So I'm very excited because really like betting aside. I'm gonna watch probably 80 hours of Olympics in the next two weeks Yeah, I mean and having the betting action on it does help a little bit for sure So I want to talk to you about that because then it's your second summer Olympics and for us like as betters We're used to large samples like for NFL You've got 16 games every week to analyze. Okay, are my numbers good or do they suck with the summer Olympics? Specifically, we don't really have that sample So does that impact your confidence here knowing that you just kind of you know We don't have a lot of data to know how the efficacy of our numbers Yeah, but you know it cuts both ways in the same sense that the sports better Or you know sports better himself or herself doesn't really have a ton to go off in terms of sample size The bookmaker does neither and so there are for sure some markets where you know small pieces of information Small areas of expertise will go a long way to finding advantage edges I don't think there's any NFL weekend I would wake up and feel high confidence that I have a 300% edge on a side or total but there are for sure You know some markets that will come and go as we go through this Olympic cycle where I'll be like nope that number is wrong It's minus 200 it should be minus 2000 or that is plus 150 It should be minus 800, you know like that sort of stuff will come and and is also is super fun to pick away at because you know I and I guess There are 339 gold medals that will be awarded I think you know if you shop around you're gonna be able to find a market for almost every one of those metals over the course of This two weeks So it you know there will be a lot of opportunities to kind of pick out some soft stuff And I think it should be you know if you're doing your homework if you're reading the rules you can probably find an advantage in some sports in some spots and And you know just right off the top of my head to give you an example like softball They were softball lines for preliminary stuff going on between like USA and Italy and USA was minus nine and a half Run line handicap against Italy and the total was 11 and a half and you read into the rules and it's like oh wait There's mercy rolling softball like you say can't win by nine and a half like In order for USA win by nine and a half they have to be up by six in the fifth inning hit a grand slam Like it was like a super narrow kind of you know probably outcome that could have gotten that even home Of course, they went like to nothing or something. Yeah, it was never in doubt But yeah, like stuff like that you just kind of read the rules if you find sort of the Micro-edges in certain sports in certain spots, you know, you're gonna have a profitable Olympics So drew are there any sports in the Olympics that that you like more than others? Well for sure from an entertainment standpoint Swimming in week one track and field in week two are sort of the main events from just a kind of you're gonna sit down You're gonna consume the primetime broadcast You're gonna you know, you're you're these are the only time in the four-year cycle that you're really going to get to Kind of sink into what is going on so those tend to Be you know much more interesting to me than sort of the team sports stuff the basketballs the soccer's I mean The idea that like Olympic basketball or Olympic soccer is going to be anywhere close to the quality I think you just saw in the NBA finals or you just saw in Euro 2020 is crazy Like it's just not gonna be as good, you know So focus more on the sports where you're you know, you have all these athletes who have put four five years into preparing for this moment That's the kind of stuff that gets me going and and for sure in this week one Swimming is is that sport that's going to try to drive draw most of my attention Yeah, that's hilarious you because I was watching a little bit of brazil and germany You should watch it I mean they don't really put they often don't qualify for the olympics and did not send even like their best u-23 team Where charleson actually scored a hat trick, but it was kind of comical because he missed his best opportunity in the first half so Yeah, I can back you up on those team sports Yeah, the the swimming is you know, I have personal connection to it on top of just the fact that it's like hey once every four years This is a big deal kind of thing. Like I grew I swam I swam growing up. I swam through college. I definitely kind of have a specific uh respect for the The commitment that you have to kind of give to the sport if you're going to get to this level it is certainly not something that You know that many athletes can handle because you know when you think of sports you think of you know Entertain me if you think of like hey, we're playing sports. Yeah, it's a team sport. You know, it's just fun We're all having fun. We're trying to win together Swimming predominantly particularly at the you know the olympic level Um, you know, it's it's an individual sport. You know, it's you're in you know, you're trying to beat your own times You're trying to uh, you know train your it's it's quiet You're always in your own head. You're putting in four hours a day swimming For you know months and months and months and in this case years and years and years before you really get the opportunity to show off on the world stage and And it's tough and you know, you have you know all-time great champions like michael felfs who've been very candid about like how difficult it is to kind of You know deal with the mental aspects of performing at that level and um, you know, I'm I'm extremely relieved that they are actually having these olympics like if they if they had If something happens and they cancel at some point and we don't get to see Simone Biles do the routines that she has prepared for this moment You know, that will that will be a history Defining loss like for us as a society like we need we should be able to see that She's the greatest gymnast that has the world has ever You know that has ever walked this earth and if she doesn't get to do it at the olympic stage That will be just a tragedy and similarly for some of these swimmers Yeah, and timing is just so big with having so few chances like this that you know every year gets pushed back Is detrimental to all of us is like sports watchers, which stinks But I got no drew like what was your uh, what was your event where based on your The way that you bet I I'm putting my money on individual medley. Am I right? Yeah, for sure I loved I was into the 4 a.m. I did the brush I had a strong breaststroke which helps you in the 4 a.m. If you don't have a strong breaststroke You're kind of you're kind of in deep trouble when it comes to the I am But I loved the I am I did some distance freestyle And the 100 and 200 breaststroke as well. Okay. Okay. I feel good about this So we've gotten inside edge via drew already knows how the swimming stuff. Let's keep on with swimming here talk about mentoring swimming We can bet on Pool win go gold in pretty much every event, but I'm curious from a data perspective Where are you finding numbers for swimming or is there like a site that you go to for this? Are you leaning on like times? How do you decide what you want to bet for swimming? Yeah It's very tough. There's a lot of qualitative angles because all of the data that exists Has to be contextualized to what That athlete was training for what they were racing for in that moment The best example I can give you is if you just pull up The australian trials time australian australian the united states are your two swimming powerhouses generally There's a lot of very good european teams. There'll be some russian golds this year There'll be some chinese golds this year, but predominantly we're talking about australia versus united states when it comes to swimming They do trials at the same time. They both happened in june and You can kind of basically take the times from those trials and just stack up like okay Well, I went one month ago. She swam this and she swam this like pretty obviously she should win Right. Um, but then you dig a little deeper contextually and I can kind of use like the 400 freestyle as the best example of this Katie Ledecki is coming in as the defending champion defending gold medalist defending world record setter at the last olympics She's a very well known u.s. Swimmer probably the face of the women's swim team the leader of the swim team the You know kind of the most experienced in the uh, um and sort of the anchor really of Women swimming in the united states You would think she might be favored in the 400 freestyle because she's won it You know almost every time she swam it in her entire life Yet you look at the markets and she's the underdog to a woman named ariana titanus from Uh australia and it's like well, how could that be and you look at titanus's times from ozzy trials Oh, she almost broke katie. Ledecki's world record at trials. And so it's like well, how did katie do? Well, she was well off of her pace and so it's like, oh, okay, so Titanus is great. She's next Ledecki's out of it. She's done Uh, that's that's all she wrote right no Lots more context to this Right katie. Ledecki. Yeah, sure go katie. Ledecki. Well, I can't help but jump in because there's a bunch of stuff I i'm more of a backside as a runner But if you're katie. Ledecki, you're not peaking for the us trials. Why would you? You know, maybe you do maybe you have a reason to peek for the us trials But no you if you are worried about making the team obviously you're gonna take you're gonna taper You're gonna get your best performance on that day to make sure you don't miss Your chance to go to the olympics. Well, that's not her mindset at all She could win going away in these events and skin qualify first and get her You know her secure her spot for the olympic team and that's what she did In fact, most swimmers what you know, you go through about a year-long training cycle Uh, we're gonna eight eight months to a year depending on you know, how what your off season is and what events you do Okay, Ledecki's is almost certainly a year because she's a distance swimmer Year-long training cycle. She's doing 12,000 10,000 12,000 meters a day You know that and she you get into about a month until you uh, you know, really Yeah, about a month maybe six weeks until you're ready for peak performance And you start to bring down your yardage little by little, you know, giving your body a little bit more rest a little bit more rest and Most other swimmers who are competing at trials came down to about two three thousand yards Right and that's because they were ready to peak at trials because they did not want to miss the team Katie Ledecki pretty much swam through trials She was going about 6,000 meters a day didn't really sweat it And really was you know intent on saving her best performances for the olympics Now it's possible that titmous did the same It's possible that titmous has more taper in her and she can have an even better swim But without question if you take just the data on Ledecki's performances at trials And you try to model that out as to how she's going to do at the olympics You are going to come in with a very conservative estimate of how fast she will swim and I would say that given the experience given the You know kind of the legacy and and you know, what is really at stake here and and just the fact that you know that there wasn't You know a championship meet in 2020 like she could be have built up a base that is just astronomically huge and This drop-in yardage could pop, you know some unbelievably impressive swims and in fact the confidence that she had to swim through And train 6,000 meters a day through trials when you're going because you know that's that's an arduous process in and of itself You're doing heats. You're doing semis. You're doing finals. She swam four events There's a new event for the women this year that is the mile So it's the long is longer than ever she's ever competed at in competition at the trials or the olympics and she added that to a program And so all of that on top of continuing to swim through like you can expect that You know the times you got from her at trials are not anywhere indicative of what she's capable of at the olympics Um, that doesn't really help you When you're when you're trying to match her up against tippness because you're kind of stuck with okay Well, did tippness peak at ozzy trials, you know, was that as fast as she can go? You know, is there any indication that um that she can go faster? And I guess if you've been handicapping or following us swimming for last five Or you know following swimming at the olympics for the last Three four cycles going back to when they were in australia The ozzy's do this a lot A lot of them swim their best races at ozzy trials and then show up at the olympics and under well And it's tough for me to really say that that's going that cycle is going to break this time around Um, they they've been very outspoken about hey, we know we have this problem We're going to work on a double taper where we are where our Athletes come down for trials we go back up a little bit and we come down and we actually hit our peak right at the olympics Instead of peeking early, you know, so they're obviously aware of this. They're working on it We'll see if it comes to fruition But really what this does is this sets up probably one of the most exciting races of all the olympics Which is the 400 meter freestyle on sunday where you have Katie Ledecky clear favorite in the 800 of the mile Uh titmous clear favorite in the 200 free and they are coming head to head in this 400 That is basically a toss up and you can bet Katie Ledecky as a dog right now in that race And I have been doing that all week this week and I'm very uh very excited to uh to see if there's uh You know a swim in her that will you know that will blow people away and really kind of uh, you know warrant the uh You know the respect we have for her as an athlete Well, I'm curious about this because like for for a lot of When we talk to you it's about you know, what your numbers say and stuff like that you do factor in Travel rest etc. So you do a good job of accounting for context, but it seems like in this There's a lot more context to consider than there may be in the NBA and the nfl Does that make it tough for you knowing that like there are extra steps that need to be taken Or do you feel like that just gives you the bigger edge like you were talking about before? Well, I definitely wouldn't qualify an edge on this a race like this as bigger because so much of this qualitative I mean, I literally like I'm banking on I guess Quantitative in in some sense that you know, I I can tell you for sure because Katie Ledecky is a Uh more of a distance prone more of an endurance swimmer that she's probably going to go out slower Tim misses got early speed. She's going to be on the lead here for the first probably 200 300 meters That can benefit Ledecky if Ledecky can catch her wake if she can You know kind of you know stay within reach, you know in the in the neighboring lane and kind of keep her in sight She can come off that last hundred and because of her endurance because of her base because of the You know because she hasn't kind of used up any of her taper. She could potentially run her down in the last hundred Um, and so that's something you know, there are some there's some quantitative signal You can tease out of her races to tell you what her ability to kind of come You know what her last hundred might be and you can look at tinnitus's last hundred at the ozzy trials and kind of say Did she have anything left? Did she leave anything in the pool? You know or was that you know, like she was going all out to send a message to really kind of set You know, yeah, I'm I should be the favorite. I'm a big deal for this race You know, like you can do a little bit of that quantitatively, but much a lot of my angle here really is qualitative and that I you know, I'm my expectation of what Ledecky can do in terms of a drop is is high Then my uh, you know just kind of qualitatively her experience at this level I think is going to be important tinnitus has never been to the olympics. Okay, Ledecky won many many goals So this is there's a huge gap here in terms of experience. That's qualitative that you can't really put a number on so yeah, and when you're in this kind of You know narrative-y sort of space. I tend to bet a little bit lighter in general You know the the big edges are going to just be like, um I guess here's a great example big edge We're going to see the four iam On saturday and the four iam is obviously a grueling long grueling event and the women's four iam The favorite right now is katinka hosu Katinka hosu is also swimming the 200 iam and from every clipping every news You know every piece of information that you got out there You know she is she has dialed in on the 200 iam has sort of that's my best chance for gold You know, that's where I want to go Oh, by the way the second competitor, you know the second favorite second choice in the two iam pulled out to focus on the 100 back So now it is basically a clean shot for katinka hosu to win the two iam right She swims that four iam And you get any indication that she's close to her peak that she's making her times that she's you know Anywhere close to her form in the last olympics where she set the world record Then her price for the two iam is you'll automatically know it shouldn't be minus 200 It should be minus 800 right like, you know, you'll get a good idea early on of later races in the program You know what to expect similarly like the where you're going to see the men's four by 200 free You're going to see the men's 200 freestyle You'll get some information and some data on that at the pre lens at the at the semis You'll see the finals and then there is a four by 200 freestyle relay where I have high confidence that the Great the the team from great britain should be the favorite. They're the dog And I think you'll get information from the actual individual event of the four by 200 of what these guys are capable of Are they hitting their times? Are they going are you gotta you got four guys going or you got multiple guys? From great britain going best times in this event Well, that relay then becomes even more of a plus, you know advantage And you might be able to get them that down at plus 150 when true price should be something like minus 200 minus 300 So those are the those are kind of the bigger edges that you can kind of that in within the meat that I think are more useful And I don't mind also extrapolating like team Performance like if the Aussies all are letting down, you know something went wrong with their taper overall Right like or and vice versa if they all are breaking world records in day one day two, you're like Oh boy, like the rest of this train coming this could be very very fast So, you know, I think those are kind of the I think You know most of the plus cv bets i'm going to make on swimming. You're gonna be days three four five six seven Day one and two what we're talking about. Okay, ladecki tetanus in the 400 free. That's pretty speculative I think you're just getting you know, my fair price is probably closer to a pick on there And you're getting her out like plus 150 or something. So I think that's a fun play and it should be a great risk Yes, ladecki is plus 145 in the 400 at vandal sportsbook. I am now excited for this this phrase It should be a lot of fun Let's talk about the medal count because you can bet on who will lead in gold medals You can bet on total medals won uh gold medals for each country What's the process for capping that and do you see any number to stand out in that market right now? I've hit five of these pretty hard uh over the course of the last month And I my process I can kind of describe it in pretty grueling detail So do you just tell me if this gets boring go hard go hard? You know my first crack at this before we really because you know You want to use as much information as you have in your hand If you have robot if you have liquid markets if you have you know You know the hey this offshore market is taking 10 000 a pop on your judo or karate or you know flat water kayak like Well, whoever they have it as the favorite, you know huge, you know a minus 800 favorite fine They I'll give them a gold Right like so you can kind of like pick through some of those markets and sort of just see who the market leading Expectation is in a bunch of sports and kind of put together a skeleton of okay Well, we've accounted for about a hundred medals here. Here's how they're distributed Any surprises any trends, you know, like what what are we picking up here? And you know like and and let's compare this to how These teams, you know how these countries did in these sports in the last olympics So we picked pick through 2016 pick through 2012 pick through 2008 and it's like oh, wow Australia's swimming great example. Australia's swimming is favored for eight or nine gold medals um You look back. Well, how'd they do in 2000 uh in in 16 or they won three about 2012 or I won two You know, so it's like oh, wow So they were expecting a big jump here in the markets We've got that australian is going the australian is going to take home more gold than swimming than they usually do similarly, um, you know the You know the Diving for china They're going to win all eight Synchronize swimming for russia That's two for them, you know, like you can pick through those markets and kind of if you want to figure out real quickly Who's going to dominate what? And then, you know kind of picking through uh, okay. Well, um, if you break down The distribution of medals over the last handful of olympics In general, uh, you know, most of the about 80 percent of the medals go to the top 20 countries in general About 33 percent of your medals awarded, you know by country are gold And then we can kind of look at last olympics and see who overperformed and underperformed Right, like if you know if you won 100 medals and 33 percent are supposed to be gold and you actually won 43 Maybe there's a little regression coming where you're not going to get quite as lucky and your gold hall is going to be more Like 33 than 43. That's just that's totally hypothetical. But um, you know, I went through that exercise as well and then Lastly, uh, they came out with a trooper, you know So the ap kind of pulled All their riders and coat cover every sport and basically like who's who's going to win every medal and kind of came up with You know, hey, this is our prediction for gold silver bronze and then You know kind of dumped all that into a spreadsheet instead. Okay. Well, let's assume that they're you know 60 percent right about the gold There's a 35 chance that the silver gets gold and that there's a 15 chance that the bronze gets gold Right and we'll add them up now all across the countries and you know and sum them down and okay Well, now this is what the ap thinks in terms of this is what their fair prices would be for each country for gold And so kind of going through that process you get uh, some obvious observations right away like The first one that pops and the interesting one to talk about is japan is the home country is expected to win 27 and a half gold medals. I think uh, I'll look at the uh Specifically what the fan dual number is it might be 26 and a half because it's moved down because 27 and a half got absolutely nuked That is a huge huge huge huge number. Um, you want to know how japan did last time around they got I think nine you want to know how they did the time before that something like 12 I'll pull up the exact number. So Home court in front of No fans double more than doubles. They're uh, well, let's talk. Well, let's yeah, let's talk about all the factors here But uh, basically over on average over the last four olympics japan has won 11 Golds per olympics. So now we're expecting them to get to 27 Uh, yes, there is usually a bump for the home team. Yeah for the home country. Uh, if you go back to for instance, um Let's take 2008 as an example china hosted. That was a huge huge huge deal. They obviously that was like, uh, you know, like I one of the you know more important modern moments for that country, honestly, they put a ton of resources a ton of Money into developing those teams so that they could perform well at those olympics They ended up with 48 gold medals out of You know out of 100 that they took home that was way way way above expectation And that was about 16 more than they won in 2004 So they got a 16 metal bump basically just by putting resources into the games and by You know, whatever the the home country bump was But that's more of like a 50 increase though, right? Yeah, yeah Yes, sure that right exactly in a percentage standpoint. That's not anywhere close to 11 to 27, right? Um, so that right away is like, okay. Well, where so where are all these extra medals coming from exactly? Um, you know, I think you can pretty well read between, you know And you know the the home crowd support we know is not going to be there. So right away we can challenge that assumption the um The idea that you have this huge advantage from a body clock circadian rhythm standpoint. Well, so it's korea So does china so does australia. So does new zealand. Like, you know, there's a pretty decent You know set of uh summer olympic competitors who have that same advantage where they're not traveling time zones Um, and then, you know, okay. Well the home country gets to usually add a couple of sports Did they add any sports that really, uh, you know, you know help boost their total? Well the sports that got added were surfing skateboarding sport climbing They re-added baseball and softball. That's one team gold potentially And then they added karate and it's like, okay. Well karate maybe they They're juicing the count that way like they have eight gold medals They're, you know awarding in this in a discipline of karate is is japan expected to win all eight Well, let's go look at these liquid markets No, they're only favored to win two out of the eight. So it's like, okay So now i'm really scratching my head as how how is this possible that we are getting anywhere close to 27 for japan Well, you add up, but then what did the ap come up with? Uh, and where are they coming up with golds? You add them all up. Well, they're their ap is actually expecting japan to come home with 28 And Let's break out where those come from. They're expecting them to get two in badmen one in baseball one in cycling Three in gymnastics two in karate three in skateboarding. That's kind of a weird one I don't know how japan all of a sudden dominates skateboarding, but they're expecting to get three in skateboarding Uh, one in swimming one in tennis one in tracking fields. Okay 11 in judo They're expecting japan to get 11 gold medals in judo And that is that in out of 15 And that immediately was like, uh, huh? I popping number like you're telling me this country that only won on nine gold medals in the last olympic cycle is going to win 11 in judo alone like how is that possible? And so so then my process is okay. Let's look at world championships What was last world championships for judo? That was 2021 What it was 2021 June it was june of 2021. They had world championships in budapest hungry for judo Uh, so one month ago, they all all these same athletes competed all the same categories japan won six gold medals And it was kind of geek for uh, the olympics Maybe yeah, maybe they were all yeah, none of them were tapered for judo and now they're all going to be tapered and they're all going to win Um, but uh, yeah, so that was kind of shocking It's like well, is there a home cooking for judo scoring or something like what all the judges are going to be on the take They're going to just give japan all the golds for judo. And so it was like, well, you know, what were the last world championships before? 29 2021 or they were 2019 and they were in tokyo And so it was like, oh, well how they do there. They got five So it's like, okay, so we're expecting somehow some way someone came up with the idea of japan won Five gold medals in the last world champ, you know two worlds ago six last time Now we're jumping it to 11. That's that's a reach. So I you know, I you know The individual medal markets wouldn't support that big of a number Basically, everything has to go right for them to come home with those 11 gold medals And even then you're now also counting on for sure getting baseball for sure. Naomi Osaka winning in tennis you know, and and for sure you're you're You're one good gymnast picking up multiple Individual goals on the men's side You know, there's a lot that has to go right for them just to get to this ap number and so All far away on the under and then, you know, we'll get now You know, if you get a decent bet size down on that now you can do a couple things because judo is all week one Yeah, so we're gonna know one way or the other if they get there 11 by the time we're halfway through the olympics And if they get six like I think is probably likely Then, you know, the second half the olympics basically every individual event that a japan athlete is even close to marketing You can just bet them to win gold And you know, then you can you're shooting for a middle, right? So that's that's my thought process on a market like that It's very convoluted. There's a million pieces involved. Um, but ultimately You know, I came to I came to japan under that way. I came to south korea over that way I think south korea dominates in archery dominates in taekwondo Their total was 10 and a half when I bet into that over it's 11 and a half other places My my best estimate is they get 14 I bet into australia over Even the titmus ladecki head to head aside that australian women's swim team should dominate They should get they could get eight gold medals. They could win all the realize they they are that good Um, so if australia's swim program gets the eighth that I would hope or maybe even nine Then you're very close to the 12 and a half over already Um, just need a couple of the flat water kayakers and the sailors to do their job Uh, and australia overcomes home, uh, and then I've been into russia over as well This was a little bit more of a qualitative play I think the russia olympic committee, uh, has a lot to prove after 2016 where tons of their athletes were disqualified for doping And tons were not allowed to participate under the flag because of uh, you know the the sochi scandal and uh now You know, so if you just look at their past performances last specifically the 2016 olympics, uh It's not going to give you a fair projection of how good they are overall. They're a very deep team And uh, they are in a couple sports where they absolutely dominate. I mentioned synchronized swimming They're going to get a you know an auto two golds there men's gymnastics. I think I had them down for five They're likely to take home three to four in swimming So, you know, they're they're going to get up there and they're they're total opened up at 17 and a half That's been bet to the over pretty heavily I just love this image of you like, uh, charlie from always sunny at the board like pointing to it like This is the the judo numbers are off like that image is just burning my head right now I if you told me I was going to have any Interests at all in judo at the 2021 olympics. I would have told you you're crazy, uh, but I will be refreshing I'm I now know exactly where to get the live judo Scores as they're coming in in real time So that I could figure out how i'm doing one way or the other on that Japan goals over the under in japan goals, uh, middle market Well, that's awesome. Well, good luck. I hope it goes well there and uh, I think that'll be interesting now judo obviously a strange one for you But you bet tennis all year round, you know these players and I think the good thing with tennis is you've got Good ways to measure one v one and stuff like that But there are obviously differences between olympic tennis and regular tennis or there could be at least So if there are differences here, what are those differences? And are there any players or parians that may be undervalued in the market for tennis this year? Yeah, I there are for sure a lot of wrinkles that make this a very difficult handicap for someone who handicaps tennis daily Um number one, uh, we don't have any idea right now What the reasonable expectation for court speed is and if you don't know what your court speed is in tennis Then it's very difficult to come up with a fair price for any for any matchup My current guess is that we're talking about uh Like like medium fast, uh, hard court here It could be medium slow, but uh, it's going to be hot. It's going to be humid balls going to be flying Um, I would be very very surprised if this plays to a slow hard court but it might uh the The men's side is a fascinating handicap just you know from an outright standpoint It is best of three Which is different than a men's slam at best of five and why that matters is best of three Tens to lend itself to more upsets You only need to get hot for two sets You don't need to have a you don't need to carry that all the way through to three sets against a player Who's who's ultimately better than you from a talent standpoint? So best of three tends to make things a little bit more random or just opens the door for upsets similarly, there are day rest in between events In a normal tennis event that is best of three you have to play back to back to back to back to back There are a couple of players like Alexander Zverev who have taken advantage of that sort of setup where you're playing best of three back to back to back Who you know have kind of thrive in that environment? You get a day of rest now in between matches So I think that takes a little bit of um the advantage away from the players who are you know kind of more on the fitness side Uh, I think that you know so opens the door kind of just for the the older players For lack of a better way to describe it. Um, and then motivation is a huge question mark too For a lot of the guys who are on the fringes of the tour Doing well at a master's event like Cincinnati, which is coming up in august That can pay for your entire year of travel and training if you do well there the prize pool is huge And the prestige is huge and the points are huge You can get a ranking bump that keeps you you can enter whatever tournament you want for the whole next year If you get to that semi-final or final or win a master's event like Cincinnati None of that is true for the olympics So basically, you know that if you are kind of on the fringes of the tour Doesn't make a ton of sense for you to really kind of leave it all out there for country If you're in your professional career is your other Uh, you know kind of motivating factor, uh, and then the opposite is true for someone like jockovic jockovic Obviously, he's chasing a career, uh, you know the calendar slam this year. He's gotten one three of three so far us open has always been a little bit of his bugaboo, so For what's worth. I don't think he's fair priced to win the us open I think medvedev is probably going to beat him in the final, but we'll save that for september jockovic on the other hand, uh, has only ever won one medal at the olympics. He had a bronze back in 2008 And in sort of the stage of the career he's in where he's trying to kind of put himself up there as i'm the greatest of all time You know who has gold medals at the olympics roger federer raffin adal Not jockovic So this is kind of his last only chance really To get that one piece of hardware that uh, you know, you can kind of dock him for as you kind of Have the goat discussion if you're inclined to do that So I think the motivation for jockovic is pretty high I would be surprised if he takes this lightly I would be surprised if anyone in his little corner of the draw catches him napping. He's got an easy quarter of the draw Realistically his biggest competition is probably going to come in the final if medvedev emerges or sysposs emerges That'll be a tough test for him But so the men's side is not especially beddable from an outright standpoint And you'll get I'll get always you'll have we'll have a we'll have some data quickly about court speed here Now i'm going to look for ace percentage as sort of my guiding factor here if we're ace percentage is in the 10-ish percent range after round one that i'm going Oh, no, this is medium to medium slow hardcore if it's in like the 11 12 13 percent range that i'm going Okay, no, this is as I was hoping this is or think not hoping but thinking this is Kind of medium fast hardcore. So that we'll know pretty quickly based on ace percentage what the what the deal is out there Um, and then the women's side is wide freaking open also Your meaningful favorite very your rightful favorite. Uh, Naomi Osaka is representing japan We haven't seen her play tennis in a long time Uh, so if she can avoid an early upset, I think she's gonna make a little bit of a run here She's rested. She's obviously trying to represent country. She has pretty decent motivation here Um, and she's likely to run into ash barty in the final Ash barty obviously coming off of a spectacular wimbledon run Playing clearly world number one tennis right now I think that's going to be a perfect match up there because you really are You know barty's strength is more the natural surfaces to grasp the clay Naomi Osaka, this is kind of her surface. So I get why she's the favorite, but uh osaka's draws tougher She's gonna have to go through igashion tech. She's gonna have to go through Um, you know potentially carolina pliskeva who had a great wimbledon as well. So Barty's got a much more friendly path to that final and I think if tennis fans are You know are rewarded. Uh, it'll be a barty Uh osaka final and uh should be super competitive Awesome jew are there any other sports that uh, you're really digging into for these Olympics? Well, I kind of want to turn the table on you here yet I have not done my homework really for the athletics, which is really weak too Um, I did notice however that the us during trials for tracking field was awesome They had a great meet Anything you picked up from trials in terms of um, uh, yeah athletes to watch out for Yeah, I mean, there's a there's there's a couple of things. I wrote over on my site, uh about the 400 meter men's hurdles Uh, rye benjamin is an american uh, karsten walharm is a norwegian that just broke the world record He is uh fantastic. He should be the favorite But rye benjamin is awesome and I think he could run him down. So I think Um, that's something I wrote up on the site But basically I looked at so actually I want to run this by you drew because I looked at their average times over the last three years Uh, benjamin didn't run last year, but he's had pretty consistent times in 2019 2021 And I feel like it's valid to do that in the 400 meter hurdles because they're going pretty hard the entire time Right like in some of these distance races You kind of like the time is really determined by pace and if someone wants to go out you're gonna You know, he's gonna drag everyone to a super fast time which drags down averages Um, so I feel like it's a little bit more valid in the sprints to to look at these average times and and their average times were I mean 0.04 seconds off Over a three-year window And so I agree that warholms should be the favorite, but I mean, um, but I like rye benjamin a lot the american And then and then the other thing that I think is interesting I don't want to ask you this in terms of the swimming. So gabby thomas had a great meet Uh, she ran she won the 200 Ran a couple of times sub 22 seconds, which is which is really fast for women in that event And she's the favorite, but shawnee miller weibo is uh a woman from bahama. She's most famous for out Leaning and falling over to beat alice and felix in the 400 meters in um In the 2016 olympics I kind of feel like she's she's a long time world class runner I kind of feel like she should be the favorite even though she hasn't run sub 22 yet this year And I was wondering like in in in swimming, you know, maybe the you know, the the woman from australia just had a great meet in that 400 And it's not something that's like repeatable Maybe because she's young or or for whatever reason so so these are the things i'm dealing with in track and field Gotcha there in swimming at least there is a more predictable aging curve Uh, you can pretty well, you know, there's there's oscillations around it related to the olympics in particular because people Do really dial in for some it's in for especially us like You know, yeah, people care about ncda titles. Yeah, people care about um You know the world championships every two years, right? But the the real deal is the olympics and so there's some you know, most of the You know swimmers are trying to peak uh at those four-year cycles and for sure There's a sweet spot when you're a woman. It's kind of in like the 2021 year range um and you know And you can surprise at 1618 you can you're usually at your peak around 2021 And then you're usually a little past peak at 23 24 And so that's kind of some way to predict a little bit of an arc as you see it coming And so someone like titanus who is kind of coming into that peak window age wise Is I would expect that I I don't have any reason to think that she can't go faster Interesting and she's got a factor that suggests that she can go fast. Yeah, right, right and and uh, I guess though The lack of a crowd is going to impact something Unfortunately, like the swimmers definitely get up and swim their best and have the you know Kind of these momentous races when the crowd is really behind them And I'm a little bit disappointed that they're not going to do crowds But I get why you know, it's it's it's going to affect the it's going to affect the atmosphere for sure And it could affect someone who's there for the first time more than someone who's there with experience But yeah, um, you know, I think I think uh looking at that You know the the the head to heads that you have or the you know the head to heads you can kind of artificially construct In the inner years between the olympics are really useful Yeah, no, that's interesting and the real thing you should do with all of these things But like the real thing that matters is the delta in every race And you can run some kind of least squares model to figure that out Yeah, right that would be the best thing to do, you know for the 400 meter hurdles We have two races between those two guys And warholm won the first one by the smallest of margins And then he won the second one in the in the world championships in 2019 by a bigger margin But benjamin was hurt like he he banged up a knee uh a couple days before that final So again context But yeah, no, I I mean want to you know, I mean if I could bet diamond if I could bet um Uh Diamond league I would I would put together this model for for runners Nice, that would be that would be cool You know, you know what uh, if you figure if you crack this, you know, this also applies to horse racing I mean, this is all the same sort of conceptual stuff Like you're putting together past performances like and you know, you know a lot of the edges in horse racing are literally like Oh, yeah, I knew that horse was this was doing this on this day They were trying to get the best out of him Oh, no, he was coasting because he had blank lead, you know Those sort of things that you can kind of put context around perform past performance matter a ton in horse racing So I gotta assume they matter in running gotta assume they matter in swimming. This is the individual Uh, you know individual performance At the highest level and uh, yeah, it's it's it's a it's a really fun puzzle to figure out Well, you're talking about motivation What motivation factor is it to avoid mandatory military service? Which is in play for sea blue kim and sung jm like you're talking about jokovic. I'm like, ah Wouldn't mind avoiding that so like I feel like if we're gonna talk about motivation We gotta talk about that being a potential factor for them, too I bet into korea Gold over with that being sort of the wild card Right, but like because I I'm not counting on golf gold Right. Um, but the fact that those guys Skip the open skip the open to tune up for that course in this competition That matters that for sure matters and there's a lot of I think that carries across a lot of other sports, too Like yeah, obviously Everyone who's going to the olympics has dreamed about the opportunity to win olympic gold their entire lives But for sure if there's some x factor that you have to dig deeper to find that last year To get uh, you know to get your Um, you know professional career kind of you know, it's a big financial difference between serving two years in the military Versus two years out on the pga tour Um, you know, that's it's a it's a meaningful Angle as far as a motivational factor. So I don't think you can ignore it and uh, you know the Don beyond that the fact that south korea is right there in you know in uh in terms of geography Low, you know small travel Pandemic wasn't especially impactful for their training. Uh, not just the golfers themselves, but all of the korean athletes Um, and then you know the the just the yeah the circadian factors You know, it's all kind of in their uh in their favor. We should see some surprisingly positive performances And I don't want to lose see who came on the pga tour. So uh selfishly I would love for him to win a medal here of some kind because he's a fun guy for dfs And just an all-around delight. So hopefully we get to keep him For a bit longer. That is dru dinsik. Make sure you follow him on twitter at whale underscore cap or check out The bet the edge podcast as well There is a link to that in the show notes over on numberfire.com drew. Uh, good luck with the judo Sweating out that with the japan medals. Uh, just good luck overall Enjoy watching the game and we'll talk to you again soon All right. Thanks again guys. That was fun. Appreciate it. Thank you All right, that is all we need. Thank you so much. That was great. You got some time They're still coming out with like lines for a lot of these track events um timothy chariot and the men's 1500 Is only minus 120 I mean, I think he should be minus 400 And the only reason he's not is because he came in fourth in the kenyan trials It's it's like his one bad race the last three years and there was issues whether he'd be on the team Um, but he's beating the second place guy who's ridiculously talented jacob a cumbersome. He's beaten him 11 times 11 Okay, so I'm gonna I'm gonna put my money That's great. That's the other one I got right now. Um, excellent So I'll I mean obviously I'll come I'm starting to see like I'm starting to see lines I'm like women's 1500 like all who is the 400 meter hurdler that you were especially high on again Right Benjamin. Yeah, plus 200 right now. You can get a better number on fan duel, which is kind of Which is very odd. What is fandal have a friend? Like plus 220 or something So Um, yeah, there you go But would you believe it or not you can get to win 10 k at bookmaker on all of these They are taking absolutely absurd limits. I do not know what is going on over there Um, wow, they just think grinding olympic stuff for like the past three months in preparation for this or what's going Ella who is doing his work down there I Actually, that's actually I would um That's a great tip. You do you guys know who Ella is? Yeah. Yeah Yeah, he's he's a sharp dude and I'm sure he's he's he would be the guy who's been grinding away I wouldn't have known if he would have been the guy doing this one way or the other but the um Um Yeah, let's pick a pick a pick a random sport really fucking strange. Uh Is there sailing? Yes, there is. All right, it's a sailing Uh, oh, they don't have lines for sailing. What about wow, wow and put up sailing lines I'll just I'll throw I'll pull up a shooting men's shooting uh, the Yeah, the shooting 10 meter air rifle men's winner you can place to win $10,000 All right. Yeah Interesting. Yeah Well, that's a lot. Um, good luck with the sweats then The favorite in the 10 meter air pistol Is plus 280 and you can place to win 10k in that one like they have so they have no clue They're there are five athletes listed. They're all right around 300 And they're like, yeah, go I know I can't wait to like come on the numbers for the men's 800 Everyone's gonna the favorites are gonna be like plus 400 Men's 800, but in the running. Yeah, that should be Do that. I wonder it's up. It's up now. Yeah Um, the favorite is nigel amos at plus 200 Plus 200. Yeah, he should be the favorite. I I don't think he's gonna win um The rest of those numbers are big man Yeah, um So jim, yeah, I got a really important call at three I'll let you guys go. Hey, take care Covering the future Big thank you once again to drew dinsik for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on the 2020 olympics and it's always fun to hear the way that his mind works and breaking down this stuff and the inventive methods he uses to find solutions to problems and like I want to know like how how that all works because like it's so intelligent the way he comes up with these solutions all the time Absolutely. I mean I kind of Thought about metal counts and then I didn't because I didn't have any idea how to cap it But of course you should just use the other markets You should use the markets for all the other sports to get some estimate of the probabilities of you know, various countries getting various metals and then Yeah, use the wisdom of crowds and the ap writers to get their projections and clearly they're going to be off, right? In some cases, right? No, no one predictor is perfect But using those two sources together to find some value in that market Uh was so typically drew dinsik Yeah, absolutely And I also really enjoyed hearing his takes of swimming and how much the context matters Because that's a a lot of the same things i'm thinking about in in terms of track and field And uh, yeah, so it's good to know that process is is he's doing the same type of process And if if we're on the same page is drew from a process perspective, I'm gonna feel okay about things So let's move now into covering the future for this weekend. It sounds like ed you have some uh track and field Do you want to discuss there as well? Yeah, so uh, I want to talk about the men's 1500 meters. It's the metric mile And the favorite is timothy chariot. Uh, he's the kenyan. He has been absolutely dominant over the last three years um, so the The the second favorite, uh, the second most likely to win the gold medal is a young norwegian named yakov inga britson 21 years old Is was a teen phenom was running with the best in the world And is is a great young runner and certainly could win gold But these two guys have run into 1500 meters 11 times and chariot's won every single one okay, so he he's he's um chariot really should be minus 300 minus 400 and I really believe he would be except for a single race Uh at the kenyan trials earlier this year chariot finished fourth Okay, um, so there were some questions about whether he would even make the team he ended up making the team Because the kenyan federation does have a choice But to give you some idea and there were some questions about whether he was hurt um But a couple weeks ago in monaco, which is a traditionally fast track He actually ran a pr in the 1500 he so for the 1500 meters anything under 330 is pretty blazing fast And we're talking like 346 mile um type pace that's That's that's moving So he ran 328.28. So that was his pr in monaco. He obliterated basically all these guys That will also be in the race. So he certainly showed his form I I I think he should be more of a prohibitive favorite. Um Over at draft kings you can bet this at minus 120 And uh, yeah, I like the favorite in this one men's 1500 But like how do you so like that's that's a good reason to bet him The other reason you could bet him is because of his name His name is basically chariot in a race that values speed How do you how would you possibly justify betting against him? I feel like my process here says absolutely he has to win, right? Yeah, yeah, he's gonna win. I actually just rewatched the 2019 world championships And it was remarkable. So a lot of times in grinding track and field tape. This is great This we only found a sport where we're like grinding tape. I love this. This is awesome Uh, so I have a mission to make jim. I I would walk I will sometimes get in the mood where I want to watch random 1500 meter races 800 meter races the 1972 olympic final in 800 meters is one of the best Races you will ever see american dave wattle comes back. Yeah, just go watch 1972 So I was doing this before I was betting this this is this is just this is kind of what I do to relax in some way So so anyways that was relaxing and usually when you get in these championship finals for these distance races It's very tactical. Like these guys essentially jog two laps and then start going Um, so when matthew central was won the 1500 at in uh, I guess it was rio They jogged and then he ran a 51 52nd final lap and one yeah in 2019 timothy chariot just Ran a legit race like he led wire to wire. He obliterated everyone. It wasn't even close I think he's going to do the same thing here. Uh, there there's kind of a young american that's known for col hawker That's known for having a kick I don't think chariot wants to deal with it. I think he he's I think he's gonna go out hard if anyone wants to come great I I don't think anyone could beat him. Huh interesting. Okay, because so you watch old track races Well, I watch races too. What's that? I watch new track races, too Okay, so like you do that. Um, there is this feature on instagram where you can like, I don't use instagram very often Uh, more of a twitter guy, but there's this feature where you can like go and it'll like show you like Suggested content and it's just like a bunch of like little boxes that like oh you might like this Mine is all old mass car races because they know that I click on those and we'll watch those So like every recommendation is like, oh, here's this 2001 Petsy 400 at Daytona Don't you want to watch this and I'm like, yeah, Ali, it's the other finished third. Of course. I want to watch this Like what do you mean? Of course I'm down. Absolutely. So It's weird, but I think we're on like it's different things. We're kind of of the same vein in that or in that regard cool So speaking of NASCAR, I do want to talk about some NASCAR for covering the future Not a race because they're on a tweak break for the olympics but I think that at this point the calendar is a good time to dabble in the championship market and specifically Do so via Martin Truex jr. He is 10 to 1 to win the championship right now over at fangirl sportsbook And I think that is a Tremendous number and I've had this mindset of where I want to buy Truex for a while to buy the championship for a lot of reasons the main one is that If you look at what Joe Gibbs racing which Truex is a part of this year what they've done It is very clear They have a singular mindset on dominating during the playoffs and they've done well at tracks where that is relevant They have run seven races so far this year at playoff tracks Tracks that are represented in the set the 10 race playoffs Truex has won three of those in Martinsville Phoenix and Darlington and the Phoenix one is pertinent because that's where the championship race will be held If you look at aggregate average running position across the seven races Denny Hamlin is first Martin Truex jr. Second and all four Joe Gibbs racing drivers are in the top Seven in that number including Christopher Bell who is seven if you lop off Talladega because Kind of fluky with the way that one works Kyle Larson had issues there like before the race So that one doesn't really count if you lop that off. It's still Hamlin won Truex too So I think what this says is Joe Gibbs racing has said hey Hendrik do what you want during the summer We don't care we won't win a championship and they're focusing on tracks that are represented in the playoffs And they've done really well there specifically with Truex Now you could use that as a an argument for betting Denny Hamlin Who is nine to one because he's been better at those tracks if you look at His overall running positions during those races But Hamlin doesn't have the playoff points He is currently first in the in the standings and that does matter for that But only five playoff points thus far for Hamlin versus 19 for Truex So it's pretty big gap there which increases the odds that Truex finds his way into the final four So basically what I'm thinking is Truex has positioned himself well for the playoffs via those wins Uh, and I think that uh, he will do well in Phoenix given that he won there earlier this year And has been very good on the short flat tracks so far in 2021 the reason I want to bet him now is because We have a couple of road courses coming up at Watkins Glen and Indy and Truex is a contender To add to his playoff points there and get some buzz So I think 10 to 1 might be the best number we get him at and I do think that he is the best bet to win the championship right now So to me Martin Truex jr 10 to 1 to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship Is the way to go and this is a weird dynamic and it kind of actually relates to something we talked about with whalecapper where They might not be trying their hardest at certain times We're talking about that was swimming and you know the the trials of katie ladecky and stuff like that But it's weird because I was thinking about that. I was like, oh wow This actually shows up in NASCAR 2 where you want to know that context of okay Kyle arson's won four times and he's won a bunch recently But it's not at relevant tracks whereas martin Truex jr has been beast in there So I think just knowing that context which comes from paying attention is so key in betting all these markets Yeah, absolutely. I mean context is important, right? I mean I was on the Tampa Bay Bucks a lot in the player because of context, right new quarterback new system Maybe their passing numbers are a little bit low for what what their true skill level is So yeah, I think there's there's a lot of that and um, yeah, it's gonna be fun for the olympics Yeah, like I've been having a lot of fun. I've been having more fun with track than even I normally do Yeah, I didn't realize how big of a betting bonanza it would be Heading into the summer and then as things ramped up. I saw more people on twitter talking about I was like, oh Wow, like this is gonna be nuts and then of course drew is you know It's so smart and can handle anything and also does a podcast for NBC They're probably gonna want some olympic analysis on there, too. So well NBC particular. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. So It worked out really well, but the way things converged. I hope it goes well. The track is mostly next week, correct for you Uh, track doesn't start until like next thursday. Okay, so there's no much the first week. Okay. Well, it'll be a lot of fun Uh, I'm excited to see how it plays out. I'm I'm I'm excited to have a rooting interest rooting for For you with that one, but also rooting against japan in uh in uh in judo for for drew as well I root for them for the other ones. There's not for judo. Just uh help them out there with that metal count That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread a big thank you once again true to drew dinsik Check him out on twitter at whale underscore capper and check out the bet the edge podcast and the deep dive podcast as well Ed what is going on for you this week over at the powering? I had adam leviton on the football analytics show. He's one of the founders of established the run We talked a lot about dfs. He taught me about game selection and lineup building and that was very cool We talked about his ebooks skin defer Which has a lot of awesome non dfs stuff as well And uh, just a great conversation had a lot of fun with that. So go check that out at the football analytics show my email newsletter trying to give you data driven uh betting information so um Check that out at the powerink.com and if you missed uh, I wrote about 400 meter hurdles And the bet I made there. So if you want to check that out, just go to the powerink.com slash blog Should be up at the top there And uh, yeah, I think that's about it. I was trying to explain adam leviton's book to my wife last night um It was a complicated process to explain what that book was so I'd recommend checking that out on the football analytics show Yeah, yeah, no the book is great. I mean basically put together all the questions that people asked him on his podcast They're deranged the questions that he gets asked The only one that was truly deranged was the guy that said oh, I picked up a Toothbrush in a public bathroom, and I'm using it and I don't even remember what the question was after that but yeah That one was truly deranged. There are other ones if you listen to the actual podcast he does, uh They make me blush that that's what I would say So he's an entertaining guy entertaining book check that out on the football analytics show and check out the uh The thoughts and the hurdles at the powerink.com slash blog also follow Ed on twitter at the powerink I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to andy puente chopping up some clips from this podcast for the fan dual quick twitter account Thank you andy for that and thank you deven for tuning in Good luck. Whether you're betting on the olympics, baseball, nascar, whatever it may be. Good luck And we'll talk to you once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network Aaron dolin here. Thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great Fan dual content and check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here