 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your beloved and squeezibly soft host. As always, we like to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. And about every day. So what do we have? A fairly light volume day. We're down seven, maybe eight points on the S&P cash. But is there any juice? We didn't have any on the way up. But guess what? We don't have any on the way down. Just 3.4 billion shares on the CBOE consolidated tape. Let me update that just to make sure it's right. It's right. 3.4 billion shares. So if you wanted volume off the top, you didn't get it. If you wanted volume at the top, you didn't get it. And generally that means that we're probably settling into some kind of doldrums. And you've got to be ready when the wind comes. But unfortunately, it always takes a bit of time. Options, as we showed yesterday. Did I bring that up? I think maybe I should. I'll go ahead and show this. There it is. Let's go ahead and, OK, it's Thursday. There's the S&Ps. OK. Options market makers continue to kind of try to move up what they think or the expiration range. This one's kind of a little bit over exaggerated. But basically, you've got about maybe $150 million difference from where we're at now to where the absolute worst case is on the spy options. They pretty much moved from about $220 to $247 yesterday. And what generally happens is these will just track in as you go higher. But you want first to add about 20 to 40 points to the S&P cash. So 2 to 4 points on the S&P are on the spies themselves. So that kind of gets you up. If you were talking 25 on the spies, then you're talking 250 on the spies. You're talking 254, 255. And that's because of the short positions that kind of offset it. So we're just kind of hanging up here. There isn't a lot of volume. Could we kind of move down a little bit? Could we go up a little bit? We could. But it's kind of like playing a hand of cards where two-of-a-kind beats face high, and three-of-a-kind beats two-of-a-kind even if they're aces. And so when you're looking at what moves stuff in the market, the first thing that you generally want to go to is you don't want to be short a quiet market. They've said that since, I think, I read somewhere that they were saying that in 1910. So it's nothing new. That is that markets that right now are moving a quarter of a percent or an eighth of a percent. What are we? Yeah, we're a quarter percent on the S&P cash today. That's pretty much flat, statistically meaningless. And you go back to you don't want to be short a quiet market. Now maybe you get lucky. Maybe the war starts or something like that if you're short. But until you make a fairly decent signal, I found it better to be hands off than hands on. As they like to say, Larry says in the morning, rather be out wishing you were in than in wishing you were out. And that's kind of the difference between speculation, intelligent speculation and gambling. And it took me a while to understand that. In fact, that's one of the passages I love best out of reminiscence of a stock operator from Edwin LeFevre, which was really Jesse Livermore, a nom de poum, as they like to say. But he said what the the hardest part was figuring out what the difference between gambling and speculation. And in gambling, you just put your money down and hope that everything works out. Intelligent speculation, you use at least some idea of having an edge in the market. And that edge is probably asymmetric, i.e., if you're wrong, you're going to lose $1. If you're right, you win $3 or $5 or $10. The idea is to always know that you can lose a little and sometimes you make a lot. Anyway, for $150 million, are you going to move $50 or $100 billion worth of stocks? You're probably not. But a year ago, it was $500 million. And you could see the difference from $500 million to maybe $100 million as they moved the market around. Now, if they're lucky, they get $100 million, or in this case, the worst case is $150 million, off of where we're at now. If they ran it down, they're just not going to be that much money. They aren't putting that much money at risk anymore in the options because they are getting killed. But it does tell us basically where they think that there is no lower price to be add. And right now, that's right around $250 million on the spies. So if you're expecting 200 points down in the next week, option market makers are pretty much betting that you're wrong on that. They do tend to be the best traders on all of Wall Street in any kind of endeavor, whether it's commodities or anything else. Kind of the guys that set the odds in Las Vegas for the football games, those guys are the best that they can find and they make a lot of money. But as we look at a very light volume market, like I said, I'm not going to get too excited about making a decision about being long or short. My guess is by the end of the day, we probably go end up being flat on the S&Ps. Now, thousands down 25 at the moment, NASDAQ's down 41. Could have been a lot worse after the Iwago earnings call last night, but I don't think that they are representative of that market. And there is some news that I think you want to hang on for with me and Tom O'Brien at 330. That's going to tell you maybe something a little different than people aren't talking about just yet, but we'll be talking about next week in the space that Iwago is in. Other things of note, that's probably it. We might have a week of nothing but going sideways. To me, going sideways somewhere around 2900 on the S&P Cash is a great consolidation to go to try to take out the highs. I didn't say take out the highs, but when you hang around at highs and they're going sideways, the longer they go sideways, the more than likely that those highs are going to be broken. That doesn't mean it won't be a false breakout, but it will be broken. We'll be back after this. So we'll do a little history and some other stuff. There's the music. We'll be back in a minute. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. In order to make the best decision, the first thing you'll need is a strategy that will help you minimize your risks. 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We've got John from Philadelphia on the blower. How are you doing today, John? Hey, David. David, I am doing very well. Clearly not making any money trading the S&P futures this week, given as quite as it is, but doing well nonetheless. I wanted to discuss further with you the action of the S&P, the SPY ETF in the futures, and ask you a question. First, thank you for sharing the signals you're getting from the options market. But anyway, just by way of history, I've done a little look and see, going back to 2012, each and every year in June, since that time, and of course, this would be the ninth year, starting with and including 2012, the month of June was a quiet month in each one of those years. Sometimes there were some lower lows in June than the preceding May, such as has been the case here this year with that low down at that 2730 level on June 3rd, the Monday, and then reversal up. But in each and every year since, June was either flat to higher, and July was either flat to higher as well. So we're running eight consecutive years with that type of pattern. This is the ninth year, and of course, only time will tell if that pattern repeats, namely flat to higher June, and likewise, flat to higher July. But I wanted to share that with you, so we've got a string going here, going into the ninth year. And now looking at the behavior that you showed with the options market, I found it striking, and you pointed this on your discussion 10 minutes ago, but I found it highly striking that the options market makers, the options sellers, were not pinpointing a tight price range for the S&P to close on options expiry, which of course is Friday the 21st. Can you share with us your speculation as to what has changed in the market character and the behavior of those market makers and options sellers, and their willingness to commit capital because for months and months, quarters and quarters, that group of market participants had regularly put their capital to work. Pinpoint, or in effect, pinpointing a fairly tight target range for an S&P to close at upon the quad-witch, such as not the case today, so their behavior has changed. I'm wondering if you would share with us what you think has changed for them, that group. I think that a combination of high-frequency trading and news-driven trading, I think that there were a lot of fundamentalists in years past, but if you're always moving the cheese, the rats don't know where to go. And if you've got something, the economy, which is not so much driven on fundamentals and how much people are buying, the thought of how much they're gonna buy next month if a trade deal does or doesn't go through, if this law or that law doesn't get passed. And I think what's truly happened is that they've decided to go risk off a year ago, there was about 450 million dollars that on either side of the options curve. Now we're down around 1.5 billion, excuse me, 150 million. So for what they, the worst-case scenario for options holders would be 245 or so on the spies. That would be the most amount of people would lose. Now, I think in past, a lot of people were using options to hedge their positions. And now it looks like a lot more people are using a more active approach using futures. So I think part of the movement is that you can trade futures 24 hours a day pretty much, but options you can't. And I think a big change from last year to this year is that it's so news-driven that no one wants to have anything like options, which are far cheaper than the futures, if you're wrong, to be in. So I think we've got a fundamental shift out of computers constantly hedging 24-7 now instead of options that in years past, we'll just hedge our position with some options and that'll be it. I think that may be pushed by option market makers who also are not selling as many options as they used to because, again, headline risk means that they can't get out in the middle of the night. Right? And they've got that risk throughout expiration. So I think, go ahead. I'm sorry to interrupt. I was saying two things. Thank you for sharing that line of thinking. And in parting, just wanted to ask if there's anything that's on your radar screen at all that would suggest the next seven, eight weeks. In other words, the remainder of June into July would happen to be different than the preceding eight consecutive years in which the month of June was flat to higher and quiet. That's everything I see is basically what you said until both fun buying and the G20 meeting when I guess the president and Chinese communist president meet somewhere around the 29th. And I think I'm getting the kind of feeling that everybody's kind of decided that the positions either in or out. And that's it. We're just gonna wait and see what happens at that meeting. So we may be in the doldrums. And of course, with a lot of individual stocks being highly short and light volume, we can see a lot of action. I think maybe some of that we're seeing in some of these IPOs that are running away. It's that kind of happens at euphoric markets and euphoric markets with no volume. That is that everybody's looking to make a dime. So they go gambling on the new IPOs or the till raise or the other stuff. But just the IPOs of the last week or so or two that have run to the moon kind of make you think that that's another good sign of them not being able to make money in the regular markets. David, thanks so much. You bet. We'll talk a little bit more when we come back. Jim's and Claire had a theory and we'll bring that up when we come back after some history at the bottom of the hour. Path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. Using a combination of equity trades along with options, David keeps his subscribers up to date with all pertinent market information with intraday afternoon updates when warranted. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. The Art of Timing the Trade Charts On this day in 1822, Charles Babbage unveils his design for a machine he called the Difference Engine, the first example of a mechanical computing machine. The British government funded the building of the Difference Engine, but it was never completed, which Babbage actually never completed too. However, Babbage is designed for the difference engine is later analytical engines for future designs of working mechanical computers. 1991, a working Difference Engine was constructed using Babbage's plans that proved his designs would have worked. And I think I saw it, I wanna say in 2002 or 2005, I went into a museum and saw the completed one, quite a work of art, because basically back then he didn't have a lot of great machines. He had a lot of clockmakers and watchmakers that knew how to make fine gears, but everything was handmade. But when we think about computing, we think about today, but they had the ability to make it. They just didn't have the desire or drive to finish it. I'm thinking he got sick. I can't remember the story, but yeah, they had computers. And of course, that computer they found off the coast of Greece, there isn't much different than this that calculated where the stars would be. I'm trying to remember the name of it. It's like begins with an A, but it was a quite a complex computer. And from time to time, I guess we do kind of lose our way for technology. And I think that one was a couple of hundred years or maybe 500 BC and made all out of brass and they brought it up and figured it all out, but mechanical computers been around for a long time. Could you focus on market participants? This is going to be like Y2K where we get to the end of the month and nothing happens. And my answer to that is no, I think we've got a binary outcome of whether or not they shake hands or they spit at each other. Because I don't think that there's a lot of room in between. The president of China can't look weak because if he does, there are a lot of people that wanted, I mean, any communist country, there's always people wanting to put, that are taking care of your back, want to put a knife in it. And a lot of times they're more worried about that than any kind of success. One of the reasons why communism does not work and never has in all of the 6,000 years of recorded history and yes, they're communists back 6,000 years ago, but you know what? It's, there's just not a lot to actually hang your hat on but I do think it will be a pivotal moment in this year's trading. So I just don't see a lot of middle ground where they kind of shake hands and kind of agree. I think we're either getting tariffs or we're gonna get some kind of agreement to go forward. Of course, right now it's tough to get news out of China because if you actually reported the truth, you probably get thrown in jail. Here we can't report the truth because they don't want to. There they can't because they'll get thrown in jail. Here they're lauded for their fake news. But what can we do other than that? I think that's it. But everything that I see, even the options in the next month signal that everybody thinks we're gonna hover here for a while and you know, consolidation kind of good does help. Another question and we'll get on to some other stuff and that is what I think about Larry Ellison of Oracle and his competition. He was very much like Ted Turner. Ted Turner liked to, especially before about 1990, loved to race his America cup shot and would notoriously hang off the back of it drunk as a skunk, mooning, flipping people off, berating them drunk on the back of the America's cup as he soundly beat them. They used to call them the mouth of the South. Without the alcohol or profanities, Ellison is kind of the same thing. He liked to taunt his competitors in the marketplace. He thought that that set them off balance and part of what he did was a complete discipline of the art of war from Shenzu. What is that about? I think like 1000 BC or something or 2000 BC forever and a time ago. He actually lives in a kind of a replica house and grounds of a kind of a feudal Japanese warlord kind of thing, but very big into the art of war and the sayings and understanding of how to compete and pretty much responsible for the whole art of war. I don't know if you'd call it phenomena, but certainly in business, people studying it went a long way. But yeah, he was always interested in distracting you while he was going on and doing something else, but he wanted to win at all costs. But I think that's about it. Okay, what else do we have? Oh, go back and check in with the markets already in progress over most of TFNN if I can actually find them. There we go. Okay, so we're off four and a half. Like I said, I suspect that we're just playing around here and could we break out on better news? We could, but I'm just suspecting that 2,900 comes next Friday and if you're gonna make any money, it's gonna be in individual stocks. Got a first question of the day from my email is about GLD and it rolling over here today. And if I have any thoughts about it. And I mean, you're up here at these highs and you got no volume. This is the second retest of the 15.6 million share high. That was at 127.21 on February 20th. You got into it on the seventh of this month with 8.2 million shares. Today you spiked it yet again and closing below it on 7.5 million shares so far. So you might have just slightly more volume. Energy is just a little, it's not horrible from this but everything continues to say that for the most part we're probably in a trading range in gold and the longer this goes on, the bigger the bounce is going to be when it does break out but yeah. I mean, you didn't have the volume this morning. You don't have the volume now. Now could something come in? I think a lot of people were buying gold on the idea that would be a war in the Mediterranean but that seems to be kind of losing a little bit of steam also. My guess is if you're looking for war, you look for the new moon and that's gonna be I think the second of July because our stealth fighters, not invisible. So they have to go on cloud cover or a moonless night. I think we've got a little bit of time before that comes back at us. Anyway, half the volume at the high, no moss. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. 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Then hit Watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. And we're back. Just to look at the biotechs, see if there's anything going on in there and the answer is I think, you know, when we talk about lower highs and higher lows, we've been in a giant triangle in the IBB since this October 1st, 2018th high. Maybe went down all the way to December 24th of last fall. You pop back up into March 4th. Now you're back down in here but you're going up against some fairly decent support which is right around 98. You've bounced off that. Now you kind of go on sideways. This thing probably consolidates out. I've been thinking for a while that if there's a sector that looks like it's underperformed over the last few years, it certainly was the IBB. And normally after a couple of years of underperforming, they outperform back again. And I think the theory, or not the theory, but the theme of the rest of the year is going to be sector rotation. There's a lot going on in tech and most of it is bad. Most of it's self-inflicted. I don't know how much we're going to talk about it with Tom and at 330. But most of the Big Fang stocks have decided that they've got a real problem. And instead of face it, they're just going to ignore it and go blindly forward. But I just can't imagine that it's going to be profitable for them long-term. But man, we'll talk a little bit more about that at 330. What else do we have happening? We want to look at, got a quick question about Microsoft. Is that telling us anything? One of the things that companies not doing, that Microsoft's not doing that everybody else is, is getting knee deep in ethical or even political issues. Microsoft's been able to stay extremely far away from it. Where Google employees has said that they will not work for the United States government and anything that the government does is evil. We don't want anything to do with it, even after winning contracts and giving those folks a job. That's great. They can go work somewhere else, I guess. But more than willing to work for the Chinese and other nefarious evil. You've got to look at Google and Facebook and the culture around those as toxic. Pinterest, if you're not familiar this week, I'm going to say Hitler Youth is the kindest way to talk about them. Labeling Bible verses is pornography because they don't like Christians. You get that kind of stuff going on and around and in your company and it's just toxic for the price. Microsoft has avoided that. I think a great deal is because they're not in Silicon Valley. I think that there's an echo chamber there that is extremely non-productive. They're not worried so much about what new product they have. They all have monopolies and they're more important with virtue signaling and trying to act more important for the people next to them. In fact, it's devolved into something that is bad as high school clicks where you have the jocks and the other people that run around and of course everybody is just as horrible as they can be at 17 and 18. They don't know much about their life and that's what it's become. Silicon Valley has become the high school of people that really don't think a whole lot and act poorly when it comes to ethics. The evolution, that's about it. Okay, I'll get off my soapbox on that one but it's just sad and sick to see what those folks have done and as a old saying is, absolute power corrupts absolutely and that is kind of what we've got and a rejection of all reality which is kind of interesting to me. Okay, what else do we have? Let's take a look at Amazon. Amazon, even though taking some flak this year, AMZN, also not in Silicon Valley has been able to avoid a lot of the same thing and that is getting involved in basically Silicon Valley politics to exclude government contracts and other folks that would actually want to give them money. So Amazon's been able to pick those jobs up. Also, Microsoft has been able to pick those jobs up and again, we're not in the right or wrong business. We're in the higher or lower business and of course that means that if you're turning down $10 billion contracts with the government where you know those checks are gonna come, that's a lot of tough business to turn away at the door because all your programmers kind of hate the United States or the government or anything else. But Amazon continues to hang around 1900. All of these guys probably except Microsoft have antitrust issues. Microsoft has done a very good job. My guess is in five years, Microsoft will have antitrust issues just like the rest. They just have kind of come up in the last few years where a lot of these guys have been fighting for new and higher profits and were able to have an economy maybe with some of those ethics. Somebody in the den saying what we all know once we get old. I was so smart at 19, it was when I got older that I got dumber. Yeah, everybody thinks they know it all. And as my dad used to say, you'll understand taxes after your first paycheck. So there's something about that. Okay, what else do we have? Amazon, take a quick look at Netflix. Again, I was looking at options fairly hard last night. I didn't see a lot. You're down on fairly light volume going back into the June 3rd low on Netflix. That had almost eight million shares. Today you got four million shares. So unless we get a ton of volume or some news out here, there's just not much going on and it's quiet. And again, I'm going to say that the old chestnuts around the stock market are there generally for a reason. And that reason is they probably mean something. And that is do not be short a quiet market. Wait for the activity. Wait for the blow off top. If you miss it, you miss it. But again, you'd rather be out of the market wishing you were in than in the market wishing you were out. Two, what else do we have? Okay, you gap down on semiconductors, but again, no volume out here. Like I said, so far this consolidation does not look bad. You've had your automatic rally in the semiconductors without a lot of preparation. And we'll talk about that when we come back. You know, you're back into a candle or in candles. Not that much difference. And you get what 4.4 million shares back into a 7 million share low back on the fourth. We'll be back in a minute. Let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability. And for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six, and three months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is markets can be timed. And I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. David White's newsletter, The Technology Insider is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology. If you had invested only $10,000 in Microsoft in 1986, you'd have been a millionaire by 2000. Disruptive technology like Microsoft's is the key to these massive long-term profits and The Tech Insider is the vehicle from TFNN to capitalize on these opportunities. This is the go-to newsletter that identifies, monitors, and profits on mostly little-known cutting-edge companies with great long-term prospects. David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy-winning animation products for TV and Hollywood that propelled a company public. Match that with 14 years as a full-time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light-speed world of ever-evolving high-tech. If you're ready to ride the next big technology full market for less than $40 per month, log on to TFNN.com and get your two-week free trial to The Technology Insider. Get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders on his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basil found that computer software which included the standard market technical indicators enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Also, a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And I had a question about, when do we buy Intel? And I have to say, I have no desire of either buying it or shorting it until the current CEO is gone. And the question is, what price do we buy? And I just, there's absolutely no reason that I would want to buy this again. The history of tech companies and innovation where the CFO became the CEO is poor, your odds are poor. And until they get rid of that guy and get into somebody that's a little bit more Jim Kirk than Dr. Spock is what I'm waiting for. They've got a lot of great products and maybe they continue to move and even get a little bit going. But I just don't think, when we're talking about competitors, they look at it as a spreadsheet. I think that there's some kind of desire in a poker player that you don't get in an account. And that's what you need. Leading a big corporation is a poker player, not the CFO who's really got to be grounded in truth and reality, hopefully. And that's it. Anything else? It's just been a quiet week. I don't know what else you can say. At least you've had a lot of noise in the market from the news, but you just haven't had a lot. Oh, what was I talking about with Jim Sinclair? Jim Sinclair came on Tom's show a while back and said that the best thing for gold was markets that are going sideways. And maybe that's why we've had kind of a nice little pop this week. But again, very light volume in this push higher compared to even just the high on the seventh. Sell when you can, not when you have to. And again, we'll see you Monday, same bad channel, same bad time. Catch me with Tom O'Brien at 3.30 when we talk technology. Thank you.