 Okay, very good morning to you. It is Monday the 26th of April and I'm joined by Sam North. How's it going Sam? Yeah, very good. Thank you and yourself then Good good and of course the reason why I've got you on today the Amplify community We all know that really today is your your last appearance with Amplify before you fly the nest and Go on to do your own thing. So For anyone who follows us on YouTube this video will go up today Obviously huge thanks to Sam for all his hard work over the last So it's been six years in fact Yeah, and I know you did a post on your LinkedIn Sam it's just gone viral which is I think that's testament to you know, the the fantastic work and mentoring that you've done over the years so enough of the The bro love for now Let's get down to business. So a quick wrap of the Well, let's start off with the charts as I always do with the briefing and then what I'll do is I'll incorporate Some of the news with the look ahead to then give you a cue to look at some of the respective charts with technical perspective But having a look at the the charts this morning um, it is relatively quiet I was just saying before we came on that They're part of when I I look ahead for the week I have a look at that weekend down via IG just to see the kind of type of opening that we can anticipate for electronic trade on a Sunday night and absolutely flat Which kind of says it all and from a weekend news perspective There is of course ongoing difficulties and challenges being met from you know areas like India Japan many other places around the world at moment on a covid situation But actually if you look at the trajectory of those case numbers in those aforementioned areas They've been relatively telling that this this is now kind of baked into to price as far as To a certain extent the global market is concerned I know it was last week impacting the the domestic market in India and it was underperforming but I think for the moment as far as global assets concerned on what we're looking at it's all kind of Being digested and not really impacting sentiment a great deal One thing that we did see closer to home mainland europe germany's coronavirus infection rate rose at the weekend despite stricter restrictions And their finman in germany has said that they do not expect moves to ease curbs Before the end of may So to give you an idea of context on on timing The other only other notable things i'll touch upon in regard to some of the other weekend news flow we had the draggy plan So italy's reached a deal with european commission over its recovery plan Paving the way for it to be submitted to brussels by the end of april that was the kind of deadline anyway So this is to do with that story we're covering last week where italy plans to spend more than 220 billion euros from EU national funds To to just help out in regards to the covid response So i don't think that's particularly new but just more confirmation and update And then there was a bank of england commentary and perhaps we can get pound up to kick things off because Bank of england deputy governor broadbent spoke in i think it was a telegraph at the weekend And he was saying he forecasts forecast consecutive quarters of rapid growth And and warn that inflation will prove less predictable I've also seen goldman sacks note come out and they are saying that they foresee uk GDP As high as 7.8 percent this year They're at the top end the general reuters average poll is around 5 percent for the uk But 7.8 percent gs are more bullish on growth than they are of the us At this point and a couple of conversation pieces going on the community about that this morning about the pound Weighing up directionally But one of the things i was saying was about the fact that at the moment don't forget vaccinations have taken quite there They've decelerated quite a lot And as we go through then back end of main to june then this the supply issue that's that's impacted the The speed of which vaccines could be administered through april starts to then We get over that hump and as vaccination starts to pick up, you know I would anticipate that I still feel fairly Fairly more bullish Cable than I do bearish at this point in terms of directionally, but perhaps you can kick us off with the cable charts So have a look at that. Yeah, absolutely me just share my screen Yes I'm uh, I'm of the same view. I'm more bullish than bearish and having a look at the chart Let's wait for this to load up. You can see that. Okay Fantastic. So, yeah, just looking at the pound 140 mark the the top last week. I think on Uh on tuesday, we almost hit it monday as well But you can see this the significance of this level one test two three four five six last week The market cares about it 140 round number strong resistance going back here to to the last trading day of february So for the next leg higher, that's kind of got to go um to to the downside we we saw one sort of 136 50s, which was a previous Area of support and resistance which has held Here and we had a few tests to the downside where it just couldn't break lower the bears Really sort of giving up the fight and we pushed above 138 that for me is is almost a bit of a line in the sand where I'd say below there then I'd start getting Had worried about being bullish the pound and the trend line that goes back to july last year that goes Then we start to see a bit of an unraveling. I think we'd have to see something fundamental for that to happen though I remain Yeah, I remain bullish on on cable and pound in general It just might be that the next leg higher comes to you know to fruition after that 140 break And as with a few of the dollar pairs, which I'm sure we'll be able to cover This morning. It's just worth keeping a watch again if we do get pushed to the upside those 2018 highs in this case the double top from January and april which marked the the top for a while actually and we obviously haven't come and traded since there So that's how I see the pound I think for now if you're you're long from lower down you're happy I imagine people moving their stops up trend line below 138 as well So, you know last couple of days. It's uh, yeah, it's looking looking okay. I would say for for the pound bulls Yeah, and lots of news over the weekend about uh, dominant Cummings And boris johnson But what I would say for that is as bad as it might look for For boris with some of the comments that he's apparently said I honestly don't think that that's a big deal as far as the price of pound is concerned I don't think that's what mark is looking at I think if it if it wasn't for the fact that this is coming out of dominant Cummings Perhaps people might take take it a little bit more serious because he definitely is a man scorned so And we know of his character. So I don't think it's I don't think it's particularly that Big deal for now at least. Yeah, who knows what he might come out with and can he destabilize the government? I guess that's a potentiality, but I don't think we're quite there on that point yet The other thing then is I don't want to get the copper shot up The reason why I wanted to talk about copper a little bit was because not only is copper generally supported by the reopening trade, particularly That of china, which is obviously commenced a little bit earlier than the rest of the world And and that being a key Obviously on the demand side component for what's underpin that rise but on the supply side chili and port workers called for a strike today For today in response to the president's move to block a bill allowing people to make a third round of early withdrawals from their pension funds And of course This is very important because chili accounts for about a quarter of the world's supply of copper So so how's the copper chart looking at the moment? If you if you long copper very good Very good. I mean it's it's flying. Look at it It's uh, it's trading the highest we've certainly seen in in in the year and having a look at the weekly chart here You've really got to zoom out to see The last time we traded in and around this this point and you see destroying horizontally here going back to 2011 so pretty much 10 years ago and um, it's insight It's insight those highs are very much in play and and I guess kind of like We were trading with gold last year towards the 2011 High as it feels a bit like a magnet So, uh, I imagine we're we're going to get traded on there, but it's been on. Yeah, this this dramatic push to the upside I would just be you know careful of any uh, you know profit taking up and around these these areas So get your long time frame charts up the levels marked on You can see we're trading pretty much on on some of those 2011 levels albeit the all-time high is just a little bit above in terms of the week, you know When you you do end up trading At such high levels. It is always worth this, you know seeing how we close the week Um, and of course, this is the last trading week of the month So if we were to maybe finish the week and month below this higher that we had on the 22nd of February then it You know puts a little short-term bump in the road, but right now it looks it looks super positive and Yeah, for those that uh got long copper They're uh, they're very much laughing. I actually did get long copper last year in and around here Uh, it was going well. We've got shaken out and never looked it again. Um, which is Should have got back in shoulda woulda coulda, but look it's uh on a fantastic rise and Yeah, trading at levels not seen for the 10 years Okay, cool. Well, yeah, well, uh, I won't mention that any further than just a bit of a sore spot But let's move on to the u.s indices Because this week there are a couple of things I want to talk about we've got the fed We've got biden's american families plan remarks and obviously this comes on the back of that that tax comment We had last week. You've also got us q1 advanced gvp on thursday and you've got a whole raft of corporate earnings coming out in the states So Let's have a look at the chart first and then I'll give a bit of an update on some of those news items Yeah, so the s&p trading just under 4200 which of course would be if it hits it the first time in history It's again like copper being on an incredible An incredible running in recent weeks a bit choppy last week and fairness This is the 60 minute and I'll just put the pivots on to sort of give us a day by day of it all And you can see we we we've had good days. We've had bad days and another good one on friday And so, you know, is that going to continue potentially? You know, there's like you just mentioned a few interesting things to come out this week Which could all be market moving I think to the downside probably worth having on this trend line here It's not perfect But I think it's something that the market would look at certainly if we were to to move down and that could You know almost be where you're going to have a lot of stops There's a you know key sort of support point here and that could be the unwind above there There's still some nice areas of support Which I think would you know be attractive for people to look to get no 41 41 people in the discord room We'll remember us talking about this in a lot of detail last week Just the significance of it. I think the market still cares and you can see on friday That gave way and we pushed on and we Yeah in futures made a new all-time high Um on the on the sort of the end of the week the close of the week So yeah, I guess, you know looking at this for new opportunities if you're not in a trade can be slightly tricky Um, but there's always the break above breaking close above the all-time high or for us to sort of come back into These areas of what are now support for that next leg up to the downside Uh as as a bull I wouldn't really be worried unless we get below 41 20 on the s&p. I would say All right. Well, just a quick word then about the fed and biden's speech and the data And then we can look at the nasdaq for the earnings because there's a lot of tech names coming out. So um, the fmc's on wednesday night, of course, um, I would say that this meeting potentially not a great deal of interest And therefore subsequent movement Everyone's focusing on on june Um to that extent that's when we'll have the updates projections will be more advanced in vaccinations reopening so on and so forth so this meeting given as well just how Kind of I I guess strict the fed of being that's just sticking to their their kind of party line for the moment irrespective of Some improvements that we have seen economically. Um, I think that will remain the case. So power power is far too efficient at managing these these meetings now. So in the subsequent press conferences things like that I don't think he's really going to say a great deal to really move the needle too much in that that respect In terms of biden, um, he is on wednesday as well giving his remarks on that American families plan as we know and that's where The proposal comes around the capital gains tax which added to some of that end of week volatility we had last week I think people have kind of rationalized that headline You know talk of a Tax as high as 43.4 percent is unrealistic I'd say for the people earning every million dollars. It's very much the starting Post for the negotiation now to get on the way I was reading again some bank notes over the weekend. They're kind of talking about the similar thing. It'll probably be scaled back To a certain degree over the period ahead So I guess in the intro period what would be interesting to look out for is, you know, more centrist Democrats I think peers was talking about this a little bit Last week. So Joe Manchin might be one where any commentary out of Those guys would be quite key given how kind of wafer thin the margin isn't the senate and the ability that Whatever biden's trying to force through his administration He's going to need the absolute backing of the democratic party because it because of how how Even those numbers are so the the sting out of that speech I'd say it's kind of been taken out a little bit by what we saw last week, but I think for a large part The market's kind of over that that story for the for the time being as far as data is concerned. You do have the Q1 advanced GDP on thursday coming out of the states headline expected 6.5 percent So really picking up pace However, there's there's something in markets called the Atlanta fed GDP now model Some of you may have not heard of that, but essentially it's a It's a statistical modeling Kind of a process that's done by the Atlanta fed a lot of people give way to because unlike them They're kind of these periodic updates of forecasters expecting what GDP might look like in the future The GDP now model just updates whenever there's a major piece of economic data in the US that the moment that's indicating potentially The GDP on Thursday could come in at 8.3 percent The median consensus is for just 6.5, which obviously we're talking about an increase here from 4.3 So even the median is a is a decent increase, but the GDP now tracker is way up there. So But that being said though If the tracker is up there or then it's not that surprising if you get an upside B so This is what I guess gives the credence to a little bit to some of the not I don't want to call it the bears But for people who are looking for that top to hold for now Let's say to consolidate up at these record levels It's the fact that quite a lot of these things are priced in and the us That can I covering kind of boom that we're on to a certain extent It wouldn't be that surprising. I guess it's just how quickly does it actually Materialize but if the Fed hold the line as expected to do so and you start then layering in an 8% GDP story I don't know. I just think that's got to be supportive if anything for just either keeping it to where they are Or if not pushing them up more constructively going forward If we breaking out of that top end of that range that Sam's just looking at So let's just pivot over to the NASDAQ then because just before Sam looks at the chart One thing I just want to quickly show is this which is the corporate earning slate And it's a busy one. You've got 181 SAP 500 companies reporting this week 10 of the 30 gal components All the big guns are in here apple tesla amazon microsoft facebook google Or alphabet bowing Aftermarket today you've got tesla And then microsoft's aftermarket on tuesday apple Wednesday with bowing pre-market and then amazon will be after the close on thursday So pretty much the busiest week that we get with the first quarter earning season And I have shared a document Already in the employee life community that kind of goes over a top level with some of these I think actually for tesla The options markets pricing in A swing. I think it was of about seven and a half percent either side so obviously sounds quite large, but Don't forget you're talking about tesla. So I don't think that's quite so sensational as it might be if it were Someone else like an apple or an amazon But we'll get into those in more detail the numbers and what to look out for just before close Um, so yeah chart wise there. How about a king in the nasdaq Sam Yeah, let me just let me share with you. What a week. What a week that is for For earnings, uh nasdaq is bringing it on. Let's kind of quick look at the The weekly charts as we go in and um an interesting one You could you could argue that momentum at one point was to the downside We looked like we were going to close below the previous all-time high We closed I mean just a tiny bit above which kind of saves the day moves us on to the next week and it's kind of Okay, let's let's identify that range at the top and the bottom and what will be will be now those earnings could drive us Certainly either way. So, you know, be careful, you know position sort of medium-term traders for the nasdaq one Poor or really good earnings Could could send you you know out of that trade but in terms of the key levels, obviously to the downside It's it's quite clear to see the resistance turned to support at 13,00645 the all-time high to the upside We've had one two three four tests of that it's failed So, you know, keep a keep an eye on that if that was to go to the downside Even if we are to break out of that range and if it's on an earnings before it gives me even a bit more Confidence that dip buyers will be there. It's merely just a you know, a dip in earnings and we we could see some some more buying come in So that those highs going back here from February. We eventually broke through found support on 5th of April So, yeah, that that area 13,340 would be something I keep a watch on if he were to have a really poor week Just keep an eye on this potential trend line from the the low of last year Which seems incredibly far away now But that would give or take a couple of days come in and around this area. So certainly for those that are Sorry Looking for maybe a medium term top This would be the area for me that I'd say We really need to get below and at the moment we are far away from there and everything seems to be Okay for now All right. Well, let's let's pivot over to the euro Because from a euro perspective, there's a couple things happening this week and predominantly at the end of the week In terms of euro inspired catalysts. You've got the flash cpi number and the prelim q1 gdp print for the eurozone as well so I guess from now until then perhaps Looking at the dollar for for a bit of direction But then on friday the cpi number is expected to rise to 1.6 from 1.3 percent So again another meaningful uptick in inflation But largely attributable to the widely flagged year on year base effects from the slump in energy prices that we saw This time last year in april So I don't think Again, this is that management of upside increases in inflation in the short term of the period ahead as far as growth is concerned actually analysts are expecting another negative print for q1 growth and Technically that's two back-to-back negative prints. So We're in a technical recession as far as europe is concerned I don't think that's going to be a negative for the euro though because everyone knows that's the case and people are more focused on well We already know economically negatives contract or growth is contracted but it's going to grow In the period ahead in the weeks and months as we've seen The timetables generally even though germany has delayed it till the end of may Well, whether it's the end of may or june or the end of june Yeah, whenever it is these economies will reopen and it will aggressively come out of that slump So I don't think there's too much room of concern there to be quite frank, but technically how are we looking some Yeah, and I I agree with that. I agree with that euro. I think good to be fair for For the balls once we got about that 120 we did cover a couple of days where it looked a bit hairy that it was going to break back down again and I liked the pounds with a couple of those levels to switch back to the pound quickly around that 136 79 for me the euro was the same as we can get back above that 120 And all few pips I have away. You'd feel pretty bullish about it We then pushed on a good day friday up to the next level bit of profit taking there We hit it this morning. Okay, you're keeping an eye to see where we close Obviously, there's a long way to go left in the day But if we start to you know, push back down and finish below the highest from the 20th of april Then you expect further downside, but you know at the moment I think it looks pretty good and we can get back above the The higher that we had well off today, but also more importantly that breakdown area from 3rd of march and 24th of feb You'd be looking for 122s and as Mentioned with the other dollar pairs keep an eye should we get a period of strong upside on those 2018 in this case sort of a triple quadruple top From going back here to january to finish in in march 18. So I think I think i'm positive But for the euro, um, I think you know, it's one where Obviously for it to come back down to 120. You're not happy if you're long But I would still be okay being a buyer as long as we are above here I think that's the way I would play this in terms of continuation plays It's not really a trend line To have on but as a bit of a guy who's starting to get back above there I think ultimately balls will be Comfortable if we can get back above the high of the day and which makes it the week so far All right, and then the final shot we'll have a quick look at is oil And and being a baker Who's the kind of informed opec watcher energy intel? She tweeted a few hours ago that This wednesday opec plus is planning to meet because there was a bit of a discrepancy of whether they would or wouldn't this week But there she's reporting that they are going to meet so the plan is for ministerial gathering and a joint misterial monitoring committee meeting Most delegates seem to think no changes will be made to the output policy is what she's saying But she'll keep everyone posted and yeah, I would agree exactly with that that kind of Statement, I don't see any reason at all for opec to make any change right now Can't see how they can with what's happening with cove it in a lot of the merging kind of developing world space at the moment On and the implications that will have The subsequent demand and so on so For now holding pattern for for that meeting. I don't think you're going to get any fireworks I'm afraid But from your point of view Yeah, I Yeah, I agree. I think from a Charting point of view if we were to get something negative for price You know, there's this this sort of trend that we've been having overall course as we know If that is to sort materialize we get a breakdown of what was a nice area of support Last week on on the 22nd previous resistance as well that goes trend line goes $60 goes You can get some momentum. You can get some you know people unwinding those positions And then fine we can start maybe going back down to 57 50 or you know longer term 33 6 50 360 I don't see that personally, but you trade what you see right to the upside then You know potential to see if we have the trend line from the the high of the year Also, you can see we haven't had a close back above 63 61 which has been a very important historical level just in a shorter time, of course But you can see we won two three four five tests In in recent times to get back above there if we couldn't so that remains a key sort of Swing higher that I'd be keeping a watch on trend line that breaks Then we can look for the push to the upside and of course if you are trading oil and prices pushing on You've got to be aware of some of those levels going back here to 2018 as well much like those dollar pairs that 2018 highs could well be talked about again But for now, I feel like it's uh, it's a wait and see You can see right now. It's pretty much stuck in the middle of you know the high of last week the low of last week And yeah, I mean what will be will be but I'd almost just be patient waiting for either a break below 60 bucks or if we can get back above 63 61 Okay, cool. Well look that pretty much Wraps it up because I guess for a week's perspective then you've got a bit of a Road map where we kind of peak and then things kind of stay up there until the end of the week And then the beginning is a little bit more quiet. So earnings wise As I said tested aftermarket today, but otherwise microsoft apple amazon all coming midweek You got the fmc on wednesday. We haven't talked about it, but for good reason. I don't think it's that exciting You've got the boj tonight coming into tomorrow for the yen Um, and then yeah major earnings the advanced q1 gdp in the us thursday You're his own flash cpi and gdp on On friday. So that's the kind of layer of your land, but sam Any any uh words of advice for the community out there on your your departing briefing Yeah, trade trade what you see not what you think unless it's buying buying stocks and never stop buying All right, thanks very much, so All right, thanks very much sam. Thank you guys take care