 Okay, traders, that is 1pm British summertime. Welcome to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnerly. Before we get started today, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. And most importantly for today's session, the views that are expressed by me today are solely mine. I'm going to give you a brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially I had a front row seat in the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately day gambling at that point. Before some early beginners' luck, I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case in this game, my beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six-figure financial hit to my capital. To say this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the market, so I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for the period of 18 months to two years was a time during which I was not just my technical game in terms of researching, developing and extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suit my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Sometimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades. So I know if I focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. A multi-strategy approach has delivered profit-binding on returns since 2008. So in 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a manager account service, again delivering annual positive returns. I'm also managing a multi-million dollar portfolio. And since 2010, I've mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in the development of the technical and mental skills to provide consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tick mill clients. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos for markets that I'm tracking and they're shared through the tick mill trading view accounts. I also run tick mills rapidly growing in any strategy group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trade plan for the New York cash trading session of the S&P 500, giving my bias for the day and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre-market plans have delivered over 2,500 points of profit since we started the group last April. I'm also managing tick mill strategy group I run this for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. Tick mill futures trading telegram group is a real-time environment where, on a daily basis, I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of cash trading session where traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the market and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of cash trading sessions where I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of cash trading sessions where I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. What I would say is that if you have any questions or if you have a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I don't cover in my deck here, then just drop that into the chat box and I'll review any questions or chart requests at the end of my presentation. So we're starting with the E-mini S&P 500 and we are testing some pivotal support here at the 3740 area. Now, if we get a break there and for me a break is a couple of closes below that level depending upon which time frame you're looking at. In today I'm using five-minute and one-minute charts so I've been looking for a couple of breaks there on those time frames to confirm that, or if you're using 15-minute or hourly charts just look for a close below there. And that to me is going to be an opportunity on the short side and I'm looking for a retest initially of the prior cycle lows into the 3640s. Then as this 3740 acts as resistance, I'm actually looking for price to extend down and looking to test the 3500 level. Note that that 3500 level is the 50% retracement of the entire post-pandemic advance. I'm not going to be anticipating a least profit-taking or biased for stepping in and then more sustained corrective move in this current risk-off environment that we are trading in. The NASDAQ showing some relative strength here. We've had some earnings out this morning from Jakey Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Concerns about recession risks and credit growth risks are the primary concern at the moment. And so tech earnings start next week so on a relative basis it's holding pretty well at the moment. But for me the key support is this 11,340. It's holding there and I still see the opportunity for us to test into the 12,479 which is the quality objective versus that swing low. If, however, we take that out again on a closing basis, then I think we will be retesting price cycle lows en route to test into the 10,540 which is the 61.8% retracement of the entire post-pandemic advance. That's the one extension from our swing high here at 15,264. We are still just cleaning onto the quality objective and the 50% retracement at the moment, but I'm anticipating as we head into next week that we're going to see some pretty dire forecast from some of these tech behemoths. And I would anticipate we do get down and test into the support zone. Dow Jones breaking down. So the Dow is actually taking out its support here at the 13,300 levels. So what I'm anticipating is a move back to test the price cycle lows 29,600. Ultimately, I'm looking for a move now down to test into this descent potential descending wedge support coming in just below 29,000 from there again, as long as we maintain this momentum divergence that we have in play here. Then any bullish reversal patterns from this area you can certainly look on the intraday for our charts but for me it would be a daily reversal I've been looking for. Then we should set up another leg of corrective upside back into the descending wedge resistance at 30,000, just below 30,500. On the bullish side of things, it would really take a reversal today key reversal pattern so to totally erase the losses of the day and close at highs to suggest we could see further upside here but looking less probable at this stage, given the downside moves that we're seeing at the moment. Russell, this is the only a US index that hasn't tested its equality objective. And as mentioned before this 1579 coincides with the weekly high volume load as well so if we take out the support pivot here at 1678 I'm going to be looking to be short targeting that move down. Targeting that move down into the 1570s as the downside objective could see again as long as we maintain the momentum divergence here, I'm anticipating that area will at least see some profit taking. So there's a potential there to play a counter trend long and certainly we can think about a test of this trend channel resistance coming in somewhere around 1810 as a target there. And once we test that quality objective. DAX rolling over and any loss of this high volume load on a closing basis through 12,300, then it's, it's time to be short the DAX and we have an equality objective blow as the 11129 coincides with 61.8% retracement again of that post pandemic advance so these are, these are key targets to downside. So if we take out the current loads here, it's, it's starting to look like we're going to roll over. The Nikkei is the one shot that has been holding up, although we are seeing a bit of weakness now. Still trading above its weekly trend line support, but for me any loss of the 25,500 area and we have a downside of quality objective cited at 22,565. And I can't see the Nikkei to hold up. If these other, if the major US indexes are going to roll over here. And so we come to the wrecking ball, the dollar, this strength is really what's driving most of the moves that we're seeing in markets at the moment. So we look now for 10870s to get tested with weekly projected range resistance sorry just above their 10880s potential there that we see at least a pullback, but certainly any moves now back into this 10650s I would be a buyer and the ultimate upside objective here is this monthly trend line resistance that comes in just below the 114 level. And you've got to think that if we're up in that area then the fair they're going to be concerned about this dollar strength, having broader ramifications markets so let's see how have this developed the euro dollar, obviously parity watch has has been the talk of the markets this week. Any move back below and into this 9929 we've got the sending trend line support coinciding with weekly projected range support. This could be an area it will obviously have to watch because we're not, we're not getting confirmation here from momentum momentum is actually breaking down but you could see a corrective move from a test here down into that 9920s. And what I would be anticipating is if we get this scenario here. So we look for equal legs, actually I'm going to redraw this. So we're tracking what I'm basically what I'm looking at here is the potential for a foot, five wave move to the downside to complete like this. What we're always looking for is we want wave for symmetry type swing, but, and then we look for a five way five to equal the minimum wave one so we can see now how this sets up. So this support zone, and any move back into the 1011010120 area, I would anticipate to see sellers there, and we've got a downside target then that we can measure in terms of minimum measured move which would take us into this 9690s. And then from there, we would anticipate another corrected leg and we can think about something similar and scale and scale to what we saw before this breakdown that we are currently witnessing. Also got the yearly S3 coming in 9760s. So that will be a target zone, if we do get a bounce here and then something to sell into. Sterling also week we have a wedge pattern developing here. Look for, if we, if we roll over today, but currently we're trading just hold on to this 118 handle, but any move into the trend line resistance here or wedge resistance and sharp another. So for any move into the just above the 120 handle watch for bearish response there to get in on the short side and target test down into 11650s, and then again from there, we'd look for a corrective balance to develop. So again, surging, testing the ascending trend line resistance now so let's see how how price responds up here but ultimately now I think trading at 13890s I think 140 becomes the magnet on the upside but any loss of this ascending trend line support back through 13695s. I think we can get a move back into test support at 132. 10 year yields, obviously inflation running really hot in the US 40 year highs continuing to be printed there, and the 10 year yield is still hovering just below this 3% level, and he moved back into 3.19% I think we can see sellers stepping in there. I'm looking for a test back into the 2.5% level Euro yen finding some resistance here as it comes back to recheck the underside of the prior trend line sport to act as resistance. I'm looking for another leg lower here in your own answer any move back through the 13690s I want to be in on the short side and I'm looking for a move down into the 133 30s as the downside objective in your own yen. As you can see by stepping back in and looking for a move higher once again sterling in. I'm looking for us to test I posted charts on the trading via account earlier. I'm looking for a move into test 165 80s this descending trend line resistance I'll just show you what a four hour here, how I'm looking at this. I'm looking for here is a test of the quality objective so we have swing, swing low and you can see that we have an equal legs objective. So we're getting a bit of a pause here as we test that 165 so what I'd like to do something like this set up now, and we get that pop into that trend line resistance, the quality objective with a high volume node just above there, just below 166. So I'm watching bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side, and certainly think about a retest of the high volume note here 163 20s let's let's try that I'm actively tracking at the moment switch back to the daily view. Let's see if we've got anything in this year. Seeing some resistance again here struggling to get a close above that 106 70 handle, and I'm getting an outside reversal or sorry can bar reversal set up here. So this closes at all below current levels and I'm going to be looking on the short side here in terms of cad yen and we can think about and move back into test 10210 190s as the downside objective that cad yen Kiwi and testing the high volume note here. So we're going to see a break of support 80 at the 83 handle to consider short positions then down to target the assembly trend line support coming in 79 50 dollar CAD breaking to the upside as we anticipated so we're getting close to our targets over here 132. So we have the high volume note just above there or 3280 so we'll be watching on the daily timeframe here for potential bearish reversal patterns to get in on the short side, and we've been serving thinking about a retest of the 129 handle from above as the first downside target for that opportunity so very close attention to that one Aussie getting close to our weekly quality objectives 6650 so again, watching for momentum divergence to be maintained and a breakdown into that area to engage on the long side. Certainly we think about a test of trend line resistance coming back in into the 69 handle area. So keeping an eye on the some of the current is looking interesting as we're testing some key levels Kiwi dollar Kiwi broke its support area so I'm looking for 60 tests there for dollar Kiwi and again as long as we maintain momentum divergence which is developing nicely here and I see the opportunity for counter trend trades developing in this commodity currencies. Let's take a look at the metals. Gold, we are targeting 1670 and gold this is a setup I'm paying close attention to because I see an opportunity here. If you just, you know, take out this or just dip below the support here 1675 so get that 1660 test. Gold and once those stops have been taken out for get a key day reversal pattern, and I'm going to be looking to get it on the long side for gold and certainly thinking about a test of high volume know back at 7093 but we could have a more meaningful low in place here with gold it could be a pretty significant opportunity if it sets up and we could be back up retesting and breaking highs as this will complete a major way for know here so keep your eye on gold. It's testing it's a quality objective as we speak here 1848 we've got so $18.48 1790 is the weekly high volume is and that's sending trony and support there so again keep an eye on on silver here because I see at least the potential for a correction to the upside and we're going to have a high volume of their $22.35 but testing some key levels here crude oil. It's broken down. I'm nothing to do with crude yet but what I am watching very closely is this 86 30 area we've got the confluence of a couple of quality objectives lining up there. And we've got this ascending trony and support as well so any move back into that area bullish reversal patterns on the daily timeframe for me and I'll be looking to engage on the long side in terms of crude oil. Now let's take a look at the crypto meltdown. We are looking for the quality objective that comes in at 12,000 on Bitcoin and so any loss of the current lows just below 18,000 I just is a short opportunity for me and I'm talking 12,000 downside for Bitcoin. I'm talking about the ETH holding up but you can see here on the weekly scale that 1000 level that gives way and we have the quality objective blurs 851 for ETH. So again any loss in terms of that support so I want to be on the short side targeting the quality objective below us. So the short side I'm tracking at the moment guys the equity space obviously has as most of my interest at this stage because I see opportunities potentially developing here for a rollover. And we get to test us and pretty chunky downside objectives in coming sessions. One thing to be again one thing to be cognizant of is that we are heading into the meat of the earnings season over the coming weeks and I believe that we will start to see a theme developing with respect to consumer spending certainly tapering off significantly in the US, the economy in the US is driven 70% by consumer spending. And so as that starts to taper off I see weakness coming for these markets, and I think we will be trading lower. And we also have the Fed now pricing in a potential for a 1% move in coming meetings historic shift there so that also could be a driver of further concern for these markets to the downside. Okay, with that said, are there any questions so would anyone like me to take a look at chart that I haven't covered. I'm going to give you a view equally if you want to take a look at the futures group the SMP group where I post that daily setup chart setup video. So the link here in the chat you're welcome to just request access and I'll get to get you in there and you can follow along with the SMP 500 setups on a daily basis. I'll also just post the trading via accounts. Those who want to follow along with those daily trade videos that link in there. I can't see any questions coming through. So I will wrap this session up here. Thanks very much everyone and as always trade this plan the trade trade the plan, most importantly, and at your risk until next week. Thanks very much.