 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a wide open slate for K props tonight over at Fandall sports But because there's no real runaway guy who you know will be the front runner with regards to leading the slate and strikeouts We're gonna talk to pitching ninja Rob Freeman get his read on the pitchers for tonight Try to see if we can identify maybe someone with good odds to leave this slate and strikeouts Talk some strikeout props and I'll talk some money lines I'd like later on this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Joined here as mentioned by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja You can find this work over at peacock and they'll be calm MLB on Fox And of course here at Fandall sportsbook as well Rob It is a pretty fun slate for tonight despite the fact there's a lot of uncertainty maybe that makes it more fun How are you doing today? Yeah, I'm doing great and I agree with you it kind of it's a double-edged sword Right, I kind of think it's more fun to figure out like who's gonna lead the day in case because it's not that obvious to me Although last week I thought I mean I was confident my pick my pick just Yeah, I mean like it's also tough because we're coming off of a hive yesterday where you had Blake Snell go bananas And then the in the nightcap Braxton Garrett just go it off Garrett strikeout prop was five and a half yesterday He doubled that up so it's kind of weird to come down from that to being like there are guys We like on this slate, but there's no like Definitive guy who we think and you know, I mean we can say see some guys put up ten But like it's pretty wide open overall So it's weird to go from Snell Zilla to what we were after today Yeah, and I think nine nine or ten could win it today to just because of where we're at So yeah, this gonna be it's kind of again It's fun. It's fun to figure it out all our logic in the world isn't gonna necessarily be right, but right We'll help our odds We'll see and maybe we'll get a surprise one like Brian Wu last week Which was a lot of fun to see maybe we'll get a surprise guy sneaking in there as well We'll talk about Rob's strikeout props He likes for today first then we'll get in to the strikeout leaders in just one second The first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Also, do not forget. We are now up over on the fandal TV plus app as well So if you got the fandal TV plus app on Amazon fire Apple TV or Roku you can check us out along with the solo shot our daily fantasy baseball podcast Open Adams run it back all right there on the fandal TV plus app along with the fandal YouTube page So check out the show and make sure you're subscribed wherever you prefer to consume it Let's dive in now to this slave for today Rob and let's start things off with your strikeout props When you look at the slate for tonight Obviously again, we don't have a lot of like huge strikeout guys But that also means we can get some pretty low numbers on guys. We're kind of enticing So which strikeout props stand out to you for today. So I like Lizardo And I'm always biased in favor I think he's got really really good stuff and he's always you know He's he's a threat to throw off a bunch of a bunch of K's go deep into games all that Pitch is better at home than on the road and I think following Garrett's performance yesterday You know, I can see them knowing how to attack hitters and similar but better stuff to me So he's a threat to rack up a lot of K's I think Lizardo strikeout profit-fandal sportsbook right now six and a half strikeouts minus 110 on the over and the thing That I love about Lizardo Rob is he always seems like he's never content He's he's tinkering because last year when he came back from his injury seemed like start throwing that two seamer a bit more And to good success and this year he scaled back on that a bit, but he's still been overall pretty good And it seems like to me He's always trying to find that next level that kind of give you, you know You've mentioned that you've kind of you've kind of find a bias towards him Does the constant tinkering constant thinking kind of puts you on him here? It absolutely does I think he's one of the more thoughtful guys in baseball. He's a very mature dude I know him. I'm like he can he's he does think about the game like that and he did he has You know ace level stuff and it's just a matter of all this tinkering finally figuring out what works And it can be frustrating sure you know like we talked about snail I consider him also the a guy that could go on a run of striking out 11 guys in a row Right We'll see like I I love his stuff love what he's about and would would love to see him beat the number cuz I picked it Yeah, again, that's six and a half minus one ten on Lizardo and you don't want to overtink her But I think that putting that thought into it is always an encouraging thing Which are the strikeout props? Are you liking for tonight Rob? I mean, I like saying another guy I'm a little biased in favor. I think he's got wicked stuff He he just loves being that guy on the team because he's he's he just He oh he wants to be a positive contributor and he has been he's been really good at times And I can see him but he have nine last time against Philly. I think yeah Can he do a similar thing today? Maybe like his stuff definitely there On the road. I think last time might have been at home. That's a little bit different But uh, yeah, we'll see I also mean no Walker somebody to take a look at I think he's better than people think recently Four and a half for Walker is a pretty low number plus one 14 on the over there You talked about in the last week and I think he had eight strikeouts in that ace game So pitch really well, I think his last three. It seems like he may have turned a corner Specifically in that time. So honestly both these guys are fun. The one concern here is weather There is a lot of rain near Philadelphia So you got to make sure that there's not gonna be an in-game delay that gets these guys yanked But Senga I have projected for 7.01 strikeouts. So six and a half is his number plus one 12 on the over You know, it's kind of one of those things where as long as the Walkstone getting away in the way He's always a threat to get you seven or more strikeouts Yeah, he goes another guy goes deep into games and has stuff to back it up and and to get a bunch of Case the rain always bothers me like I sit there and all the logic in the world can't determine can't help you with the weather So well if I look at like the main daily fantasy slate for tonight So no efflin and no Lizardo starting with the 705 p.m. Games My two highest strikeout projections are for Walker and Senga and they're in the same game So hopefully the rain stays away because that would be a bummer. It's not people to look at those two guys Any other catching your eyes for tonight Rob? I like bail. I think he's been doing really well I mean he seems to have found it and last year I was you know I I covered them for for Nessan Yeah, and he was always that guy that you knew had the stuff and it was just a matter young pitcher figuring it out And I think he has figured it out So I look for him to hopefully go deep into that game and get a bunch of bunch of case as well They are also plus money in the over He's a plus 122 to go over five and a half taking on the white socks pretty neutral strikeout team But as you mentioned Bayo can't get strikeouts and thing that I like about him Rob Specifically is that he gets ground balls to and obviously that doesn't translate to strikeout props directly but it does allow you to go deeper in games because you're not getting hammered and I know that that's like counterintuitive because like if it's a ground ball It's not a strikeout, but I do like that it makes a more effective overall pitcher and gives me more confidence He can be out there for six seven innings to get you to those six strikeouts. I totally agree with you I mean, I think that that's an underrated thing you want a guy that's gonna go deep into a game and also get you strikeouts I there's nothing worse than like a two-strike ground ball though. Like yeah, you got it out, but you just come on You've got the two so you're watching the MLB app I know you've got all your monitors, but I can't watch all games at once, you know I've got it up on the app and I see the two strikes. It's like a one-two count You see the blue dot up here and it's it's in playing like dang it every time just a bummer There's no worse feeling in the world unless it's a you know, unless it's an under which occasionally does happen for sure Yeah, not with me though. I don't like exactly Ninja we're supposed to get a lot of strike. Exactly rooting for strikeouts. We want those third strikes We want pitchers to succeed as always now We do typically talk about the prop to lead the slate in strikeouts That is not currently up over at Fandall sportsbook because I think there was some uncertainty for Dane Dunning starting for the Rangers They have not posted that number actually the Yankees flipped to Severino as opposed to Clark Schmidt That was the reason why that number is not up So we don't have the actual odds yet obviously they're very important But I want to ask you Rob in general which pitchers Do you think have the upside to push to lead this slate and strikeout? So we can kind of look at their numbers first and see if we think their values for tonight Yeah, I mean to me. I was I'm leaning towards Lizardo today because again I think following Garrett's performance Seeing how to attack those hitters will help him and he's got the stuff to back it up and he can strike out double digits So that's where I'm leaning. I'm curious to see what his number is gonna be But even blindly and I know it's it can't be like he's not gonna be the odds on favorite because there isn't one with this slate So I think that that's where I'm leaning but yeah I think that Lizardo would probably be my pick to be like the top-end guy, too I was curious about Zach Eflin facing the Royals He is at home for today and Eflin is pretty inconsistent as far as strikeouts go where you can have I think he had a zero strikeout game against the Astros or something a couple weeks ago So you can have clunkers, but he also does have like these spike games Is Eflin someone who would be in your consideration set or not quite there? Oh without a doubt he'd be like that's the way I view him. It's a crap sheet Like you can get a Zach Eflin that's gonna strike out 12 dudes and that's definitely not like if he told me struck out 12 I wouldn't say oh my god that came out of nowhere. I'd be like, yeah, that's the Zach Eflin we get But he'll also he also could pitch a shutout and and strike out three. So Yeah, I just don't know like I have no problem with the logic of backing him though Right, and you have like even Logan Webb at the end of the day. Yeah, web He's been pitching great and you know, I mean could he could he get a bunch? Sure every once in a while tough team though. Yeah, and I think that web is like the best like real world pitcher Like if we're just talking like ignoring strikeouts best real world pitcher like you said the matchup stinks both from like a quality perspective and a strikeout perspective, but like Sometimes maybe you just want to bet on the best guy and I think that web to me at least I think that he's probably the guy picked there as far as best overall quality Just a question of will that translate to strikeouts given the matchup. Yeah, totally agree And I think this is that's what makes this makes this slate kind of fun though Because yeah, like the light you know when you have a Spencer Strider at two to one or something like that You know, he's an obvious favorite today. It's like I was going through the slate gun Who would be the favorite today? My guess is it's again. I think Lazardo logically I can get there But logic doesn't always pay out on these things like it does not that is For sure, but a fun night. So check out some of the guys Rob discussed checking a hasives Lazardo Kote Senga for the strikeout prop They're Brian Bale against the White Sox. Those are three strikeout props Rob is digging into and kind of check out the odds board once it comes up for the pitcher to lead the slate and strikeouts If you can get a soft number on Lazardo that'd be pretty enticing But so overall kind of dig in and see where you're seeing the value there That is Rob Freeman make sure you check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja find his work at peacock MLB Com and I'll be on Fox and of course here at Fandals Sportsbook as well Rob Enjoy all the baseball for tonight. Have a fantastic weekend. Appreciate it as always. Thank you before I go There's a 25% pitching ninja profit boost token today too. So you get a free 25% Profit boost on any game from the 23rd to the 25th on a straight bet. So the daily strikeout leader counts. Oh Interesting. So you could take even if Lazardo is like the favorite You could make you could put push it out a little bit 25% or you could take that that Senga strikeout number Plus money on the over push that out. That's pretty enticing. You said for any game between now and when now in the 25th I believe it is so you get a profit boost on on any straight bet and the parlor and the daily strikeout leader counts as it So I was planning on using mine for Lazardo, but I like to see the odds. Yeah, okay. I love it Well, thank you for getting that in there. I appreciate that Rob Good luck to you rooting for Lazardo for tonight rooting for room for the parlor as well. Good luck to you And we'll talk to you again next week. Awesome. See you. All right. Thank you again That is Rob Friedman find him on Twitter at pitching ninja and find all this fantastic work again Peacock MLB dot com MLB on Fox and here at Fandall sportsbook if you want to see his parlays I believe they're posted in the Fandall sports book a lobby Each and every day so you can find those there to find them and hopefully do get that strikeout leader Leaderboard up here before the end of the day over at Fandall sports again The switch for the achies to Severino over Schmidt is the reason why that was not posted before we record We'll talk about a couple of money lines I like for tonight that do make me a bit nervous We'll talk about them here in just one second The first baseball season is in full swing and there's no better place to get in on the action than Fandall America's number one sports book because right now new customers can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 such a $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win So don't miss your chance to snag a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 when you join Fandall today Fandall Official partner of major league baseball major league baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and present In select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required Refund issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt restrictions apply see full terms at fandall.com Slash sports book fandall is offering online sports wagering in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem called 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text next step defy 3 3 4 2 in connecticut 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 over the cc pg.org slash chat in indiana 1 800 9 with it in wyoming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in kansas ks gambling health com louisiana is 1 8 7 7 7 7 7 0 stop in massachusetts gambling helpline m a.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in maryland md gambling health.org In new york 1 8 7 7 8 open wire text open y and in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler.net Let's talk through some money lines. I like for today both these are underdogs one of them is a big underdog so a lot of uh Crepidation there we'll talk about that in a second Let's start things off though with a bit of more of an even matchup. That is between the milwaukee brewers and the cleveland guardians I like the brewers money line that is currently plus 122 At vandal sports book and the reason i like this one is because i've got this is pretty much a toss up With the brewers win odds at 49.7 percent versus the implied win odds at plus 122 Which are 45.1 percent The reason that i'm here is although i'm skeptical of the brewers starter weighed mildly i'm also Not fully sure that shane bieber is back yet He has gone seven plus innings in each of his past two stars, which is great But in the second start there his most recent one still led up a lot of hard contact And that hard contact has been a pretty big issue for bieber early in his career But also here this year in the seven starts he's been throwing fewer sliders biebers hard hit rate allowed Is 44 it's a really big number and it gets worse when you see that his strikeout rate in that time is 16 percent So He's letting up a lot of balls and play and those balls and play are well hit That's not a great recipe for success As for Wade milie on the posing side he came back off the il last weekend It is first start back the velocity from milie was weirdly good Uh, he's not a hard thrower, but the velocity on his cutter was the best it's been all year And in that game he held the pirate scoreless of five innings so I understand why cleveland is a favorite in this game. Their money line is uh currently minus 144 I just don't think they should be as heavily favored as they are For tonight. I think this one actually should skew more towards the brewers making this kind of a toss-up game So the brewers are plus 122 to me Quality bets not a big believer in either offense honestly So that nullifies the concern on the the milwaukee side such me the brewers money line plus 122 a good value money line for tonight The other money line I don't blame you you don't want to come with me on this one because It is definitely a little bit unnerving. It is in the late one of the later games That is the washington nationals money line. They are plus 235 taking on the san diego padre's I actually do think the nationals are a value here. Let's talk through that This is definitely one where the odds of spet wins are pretty low And you want to account for that when you're allocating your bet size you want to know that You're probably going to lose that money because I've got the nat's win odds at 33.6 percent So the odds of spet loses 66.4 percent if my model is correct But that's still more optimistic than the market is because the implied odds of plus 235 are 29.9 percent So I bet nascar a lot I'm okay with having bets that I think will lose if I think that they are values relative to the market That's exactly what we have here. You kind of have to be okay with losing In not having like a 50 hit rate if you think they are good values Do I think is what that is for today even though patrick orbin? The starter for the nationals has struggled on the whole this year. He's also volatile He can't have Occasionally pretty good starts so volatility for a plus 235 money line is a positive thing Jill musgrove starting here for the padres He has been very good at suppressing hard contact. It's been a 21 percent hard hit rate across his past seven starts Where he's been leaning more on that curve ball So That's a legitimate skill and something I'd expect to continue But his strikeout rate has also been low the nationals are a low strikeout offense Which means we probably should see a lot of balls and play here and balls and play in general are pretty volatile events So That's why I think that the nationals may be undervalued in this market Now as always you do the option to go with the run line instead The nationals are currently plus 116 to cover a run line a plus one and a half, which means They're plus 116 to lose this game by a run or less or potentially win Or to lose this game by a run or win this game Obviously that gives you more flexibility The reason I don't want to go there personally is because corbin could get torched We saw the padres light up alexwood last night. They're a very good offense against lefties and corbin has some true clunkers so If they lose they could lose by 10 and I'd rather Take a more volatile market that is okay with that volatility and that is the money line So to me I want to go with the higher upside market. The nationals money line is plus 235 right now at fangirl sportsbook this one did lengthen overnight, so There is a shot that you can get better a plus 235 later on Obviously, you don't want to bet against the market But I think this one has moved enough where the nationals are an actual value for today So the two money lines I like for tonight are the brewers at plus one and 22 at the nationals at plus 235 as always though account for the fact that Both those bets based on my model have less than 50 percent odds of cash So account for that within your bet allocation know that there's a good chance these bet lose bet bets lose But to me they lose less often than the market implies which is exactly we want We don't want to be We don't want to have the highest win rates We want to have the highest profitability rate and I think that's the way you can find things with that so Proceed with caution as always make sure you're never betting more than you can allow But these are value bets based on my model for tonight That's all we got here for today on covering the spread But again, I want to give a big thank you to rob freeman check him out on twitter at pitching ninja Hopefully a lot of hey sus lizardo gifts coming your way for tonight over there Do not forget to subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast apple podcast spotify Stitcher wherever you get your podcast you can find us If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on apple podcast for on spotify Also, check us out in the fandom youtube page where you can leave a thumbs up there And on the fan dual tv plus app or ever you uh or on apple tv amazon fire and roku as well If you've got any question for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan will podcast want to thank you all for tuning in for today Good luck to you with your bets across mlb for tonight. We'll talk to you once again monday Probably talking some more baseball then as well We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network