 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network It is the Wednesday before a selection Sunday Which means we are in the thick of the men's college basketball conference tournaments We're talk about the big 10 conference tournament talk about some tournament games ad likes and get you ready If what should be a fun week across men's college basketball This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by Dr Ed Feng find his work over at the power egg calm check out Ed on Twitter at the power egg in on the football analytics show Ed It is a delightful time of year a delight to have you on the show. How you doing today? I'm doing well. I'm excited about all the college basketball. It's really fun with the conference term and It was pretty nice watching Gonzaga look pretty good last night against st. Mary's yeah, and yeah, I'm just excited to watch a lot of basketball get my nails to sell straightened up help people win their pool And yeah, I just feel like I'm gonna be more of help this year because it's it's kind of wide open It is and I think that's an important time to have numbers on your side to kind of know what to expect there is a lack of consensus that means that people make it over competent in One team run with that and stuff like that if it's wide open you can deviate without being dumb We talk about that a lot on our daily fantasy shows Being different without being dumb is very valuable and I think that especially from a bracket perspective We can a lot of times see Group think like wisdom of the crowds is one thing group think is another and I think it's important to kind of Differentiate those I wouldn't be shocked at if we see something this year where one team gets a bit more consensus around them They then they potentially should Maybe but I kind of don't like well actually yeah, that would be good Yeah, that would be good. I'm actually more kind of hoping Houston loses early in the American conference like I wanted to lower enthusiasm around them lower Enthusiasm, yeah, so we'll see they're not really a blue blood. So I don't know how much public attention. They're gonna get in brackets I would like to see less. Maybe maybe I don't know who can go on a run Yeah, maybe maybe you see like you can go on a run. They're blue blood. Yeah, they're playing well Um Yeah, I think there's a there's there's a lot going on I've been working on an email newsletter series Just kind of laying out a lot of things for bracket strategies. I think interesting tips from from analytics and I Originally planned to write something about, you know, the parody in college basketball this year But then I just I'm starting to see this everywhere and I was like, yeah People know we'll skip it parody in college basketball Yeah, and that's basically as I'm as I'm like digging through these teams. Yeah, exactly what I'm seeing and I mean there's Not many teams. I I really trust. Yeah, that'll be a big discussion next next week We're gonna have so selection Sunday is Sunday Obviously, and then on Monday, we're gonna have our typical NCAA tournament live stream We're gonna have Ed on as always and also Bennett Corcoran We're gonna talk to him about his thoughts in the tournament We'll talk to Ed about what his numbers are saying. I'll go through a number fires a number say try to get you a Read on how to fill out your bracket. We've done this show for six or seven years now at this point It's been a staple on this show. It's been a fun one to record every year So we're gonna have Ed and Bennett on if you want to watch that show live It'll be on the Fandal YouTube page 6 p.m. Eastern on Monday So we don't typically go live but we will for this one so Monday night 6 p.m Eastern Fandal YouTube page and we'll go up here on the covering the spread podcast feed as well So the Monday show later in the day But it will also be live over on the Fandal YouTube page talking about everything you need to know for Filling out your bracket. We're talking Strategy based on things book or Ed is literally written books on we'll talk about Individual teams past the tournament and much more Bennett We've had him on the past couple years been a shot quality now We'll get his read on this from a betting perspective to try to get you to an idea of what to expect But then the tournament but Ed I think with this it's worth reiterating Team analysis matters a lot, but this is a situation where game theory and strategy also play a big role Determining how you'll do in your bracket for sure. Yeah, you definitely need to understand that champions is the most important choice in your bracket and You know a good grasp of these top teams and you know Which teams have kind of come out of the blue and are sitting there at the top on the one-seed line but maybe don't have the talent and then maybe some teams that Aren't being talked about at all right now because they had they didn't have the best season, but You know, we're near the top of the preseason AP pole Which is kind of a sign of strength So so lots to talk about there and we'll tailor the show towards what matters most So we'll spend the bulk of the opening part talking about national champion contenders We'll talk about final four contenders We'll focus a tiny bit on like first-round stuff But because of the way things are weighted within NCAA tournament pools, they don't matter as much So we're not going to put the majority of our focus there so We'll cater it towards what matters most to get you ready Yeah, that'll be on the covering the spread podcast fee and the fans of YouTube page So go subscribe to both those wherever you are choosing to consume that on Monday again live at 6 p.m Eastern are you looking to have a stake in the players championship this weekend? Well Fandall has you covered on the DFS side with the PGA Eagle, which is now live test your knowledge of the PGA tour by putting together a six-person lineup while staying under the salary cap and using Fandall's live scoring feature follow along as you compete for a share of $200,000 with first place taking home $40,000 all for just a $7 and 77 cent entry Whether it's household names like John Rom and Roy McElroy or lesser known golfers There are plenty of options for you to fill out your lineup as you compete for our first place Thursday will be here before you know it so submit your lines today on Fandall eligibility restriction supply Go to Fandall.com or download the Fandall app for more details Let's talk now about these conference tournament games and when we talk about the NBA in terms of betting things during the playoffs We have to account for rotations. We get tighter rotations and the NBA team is not conserving guys so later on in the year What about on the college basketball side of things? Do we need to make alterations there to account for the fact that these games just matter more and guys aren't being conserved for down the road? I certainly think you should do that. It's not something that I am particularly good at I haven't really embarked on that before but if you know someone that has some pretty good player ratings I definitely think that's something that is Is useful to do I know that's something dr. Bob does when when he gets into the NBA playoffs and and I presume he's doing it for College basketball as well. So yeah, I mean you're gonna get and this is I mean I guess the part of the analysis that I think makes that is related to the The the tightening of rotations is does I really try to look at star players, right? Yeah, like who are the star players out there that picked high in the NBA draft and not only picked high in the NBA draft But can actually do something on the college basketball court. I know it seems a little bit weird, but not every one of Has been successful at the at the college level in a way that that you really trust So, you know, for example, like a guy Nate like Brandon Miller at Alabama This is a guy that can fill it up. He's gonna be a lottery pick Probably gonna be playing more minutes as soon as the SEC tournament starts. So Yeah, I mean, I think it's definitely something to think about. I mean you want to think about the the upside of Of players, right and then and then maybe like something like a Zack Eadie who's a big guy Probably don't want to put too many more minutes on the seven foot four inch frame, right? And we talked before last week about how I don't really trust the talent on the rest of the team I think a great great Purdue team plays really well together, but we still we seem to start to decline a little bit and Yeah, so maybe not a team there that those rotation minutes matter as much Heading heading into the postseason. So maybe maybe another knock on them. I'm not really sure We'll see who knows me. Maybe Zaki start playing 38 minutes and I don't know if I can do it, but Definitely something that you should think about try to find those player ratings and go from there So best case scenario is we have a player level model. We can adjust based on minutes and stuff like that But realistically most of us can't do that. So would you recommend the best shortcut being checking out like NBA draft like mock drafts effectively Try to decide which teams have that like top level talent to make concentrate more on those guys this time of year I mean, I certainly look for that. I certainly look at You know, I usually look at ESPN and the athletic for their mock drafts to figure out who's who's pretty high and Yeah, so I certainly recommend doing that. I mean if you have a subscription to Ken Palm and you really should Just just look at look at the offensive rating of players, right? If they're if it's up in the one teams like that's a pretty good offensive player That's pretty efficient, you know, look at their two point three point field goal shooting rate so you can get a sense for that with just kind of those those raw metrics and Yeah, no, I definitely think that's a pretty good thing to do and it's something though Like even if we can't do it perfectly, you should do something to account for it And I think that that is a good workaround for those who may not have the most intimate knowledge of these rosters intimate knowledge of the individual difference makers there are ways you can account for that without Spending gobs and gobs of time trying to catch up with this regard now you mentioned Purdue Let's take a look at the big 10 at conference tournament odds right now as this tournament gets underway tonight Purdue the favorite They're plus 160 they were plus I think 185 or 190 as of yesterday So there's been some interest in Purdue Entering the tournament and we talked about being skeptical of Purdue quite a bit the problem that I've run into Ed with this is that The conference isn't that great? I don't think so right in theory fading Purdue makes a lot of sense I agree through your analysis there. I just don't know where to turn when I want to do so So when you look at the big 10 right now any value for you outside of it when you look at these conference tournament outrides This was a pretty fun exercise because I think this is where you want to I think there's a lot of parity in the conference And so this is where you kind of want to lean on numbers to figure out Where you might get a little bit of an edge So Purdue is the best team in the conference and the margin is you know somewhat big at least two or three points to the next team my models kind of Have a variety, you know, you know when teams are close together one model might tell you one thing and another model might tell you another So the member model that I kind of trust the most that that tends to be more active tends to be more aggressive Actually has Iowa as the second best team in the conference So Fran McCaffery's team You know, I like I would 14 to one. I have a little bit there to For them to win the big 10 tournament And then on my other model that tends to be a little bit more aggressive tends to Emphasize what has happened over the course of the season tends to dampen outliers That model as Illinois is the second best team in the conference. So you know plus 13 to 1 is another thing I just put a little bit on today and There's there's five teams that both models think are the next level of Teams in the big 10 as Indiana, Michigan State We're gonna skip Maryland and sorry Northwestern Illinois, Iowa and Michigan. So that's what my number says the the next batch of teams is in the big 10 so Yeah, look Purdue should win they should be the favorite but you know like almost even odds to win seems a little I mean, not quite. I guess plus 160. Yeah It's not quite It's it seems a little high so yeah, I definitely think this is a conference where you can you know Take a chance with a couple long shots Hope Purdue has a bad shooting day and and boughs out. So Purdue again plus 160 Illinois 13 to 1 Iowa 14 to 1 when you look at both your numbers Combined different models combining what you've seen from these teams across the course of the year Which model do you think you agree more with are you leaning towards the Iowa side if you're making one bet? Are you leaning towards Illinois? What do you feel is the the better value between those two? Yeah, honestly, I don't really know because I haven't been really digging into Iowa or Illinois because I don't think either has a prayer to win the tournament and that's where I try to keep all my attention at I do trust the models and and I would put those two teams ahead of The other four that are ahead of them there. So I think that's where I think the value is I think they're two pretty good coaches coaches that I respect Famic Framacaffery is just the funniest coach in America. Did you see the stair down? I didn't see the stair down But I I've seen like this like scale that exists online and it's like the Framacaffery eruption scale And it's like basically the redness of his face Um And he's hit like mach one or I don't know def con one whatever that may be Several like he got kicked out against her western. I think He's hit the top of that scale a couple times this year and like right it's it's entertaining if something else At the end of the michigan state game. He uh instead of screaming at the rough He had a little stare down with the rough. So for about 15 seconds. He in the rough, you know, we're like He's got a change up. He's he's not just the heater. He's got a change up in his arsenal, too I like the change up and the rough played ball with him. So there's a little bit of a stare down And it was kind of a remarkable game because they were at home They were down 10 with like a minute and a half to go when they came back and won the game in overtime Yeah, so the stare down Led led to a win He's adaptable. Um, he's evolving. He's finding ways to to change things up So I was Absolutely 14 to 1 14 to 1 uh potentially good value there also 13 to 1 For illinois where ed is liking right now on the big 10 side of things now the acc tournament already underway Syracuse lost this afternoon jim bayheim kind of sounds like he might have retired in his post game, but also Unclear who can say? Weird situation there, but entering play these odds are not up right now because the the tournament is underway But entering play duke was the favorite of plus 260 When you look at the acc ed Any teams you think are undervalued in that market as as things reopen heading into thursday Once we see those top four teams getting to play tomorrow No, I I think the conference sucks There's really no teams to write home about and say hey, I really like this team I think it starts at the top of the two blue blood programs that had the Ingenious idea of hiring head coaches with zero head coaching experience It's pretty critical of north carolina last year when they they they hired uber davis to To be the coach and then immediately look like an idiot as they went all the way to the title game and Came within a couple buckets of beating kansas for the national title Four of those top players are back uh from that starting lineup and I don't know I think they were free season number one and they've been terrible. They might not make the tournament And uh, I think they could have done better with the coach with just a little bit of experience John chire takes over at duke. I do believe there's some talent there. Uh, it's really not showing up Uh, so, you know, I mean one in the model I trust the most I have duke in north carolina 23rd and 25th So again Neither not not really excited about either team virginia is another interesting team. My other model really likes virginia Both models have them as the you know in the top three in the conference Tony benett is is obviously quality coach Although he really hasn't had the type of offensive players that he did in 2019 when they won The nc double a tournament. I think you'll get the back there at some point Um, probably not this year. So the acc is not a conference that I'm particularly high about and uh, You know, no no true contenders coming out of there And again those odds not up right now for the acc But it sounds like ed is probably staying away from that regardless Okay, let's open things up and talk about some actual games because we've got some game scheduled for later on wednesday We're recording this wednesday afternoon Potentially games up for thursday as well ed when you look at the odds board right now any games where you're seeing value based on your numbers Yeah, let's let's head to one of the first games for tomorrow. Uh, fendall has been kind enough to put this up already and uh Baylor is a four and a half point point favorite against iowa state And I think that's pretty interesting. So first my numbers don't think that the spread should be Uh, that large So one of my models has Baylor by about a point and a half on a neutral court court there Baylor and Iowa state just played Baylor was at home. Iowa state actually destroyed them on the road And I don't want to take make too much about you know one game and the result in any particular game But I will point out that the market actually closed with Baylor as a six and a half point favorite in that game so uh You know home courts usually three points at least in in in college basketball So that would make it at least three and a half my model has it all the way down at one and a half Uh, I kind of feel like this is something that's going to move in the direction of all Iowa states I definitely bet it a plus four and a half um Because of my numbers because of what you know because they just played because the market at you know had it at um at six and a half and Closed at six and a half. I think that does suggest value So I do like Iowa state and that that opening game of the big 12 tournament And that is again for thursday, uh, that is at 12 30 p.m. Eastern Uh for iowa state versus Baylor iowa state currently plus four and a half and and for people who've listened to this show for a long time They kind of know what you're talking about you're comparing the closing market versus where things are at right now For people who may be newer to this Why does that matter for you? Why are you focusing on the closing number in that game in terms of predicting what we should expect for things playing out in the rematch? For sure. I mean college basketball spreads are just so sharp at this point in the season Uh, you really kind of cross your fingers and and hope the public gets involved in the ncda double A tournament So you can actually find some value Betting those spreads but right now it's really sharp and if Baylor just closed his minus six and a half At home against iowa state. That's probably a pretty good assessment of where those two teams are You consider that's roughly three points of home court um And iowa state just killed him I don't know. I mean maybe maybe well, this is this is the market opening up I doubt too many sharps have bet into this number Already, I don't know. Maybe maybe there is some thought that that Baylor is going to tighten up their their lineup I don't really know as we talked about before So, yeah, I mean Yeah, look look where things close. I mean, that's a pretty good indication of what to expect and And uh, I think I think that that number is pretty sharp and that's that's why I mentioned it I do think there's some value I think I think it's going to close at three and a half or or less And you've talked about this in the past, but your model does weigh in The closing number for games, correct? Like you factor that in in your evaluation of teams I do. Yeah, so basically what you're taking is The knowledge given to you by the betting public and applying that By basically making the very fair assumption that the that markets are efficient Which hey, they typically are and applying that to future games And when you do that with Iowa State versus Baylor, it says there's value in Iowa State plus four and a half As they face Baylor once again, basically, so you're using the market to help beat the market Which I think is a really smart way to play things Absolutely and and you have to understand that that the market at different times is going to be sharper I think we talked about that a lot at the NFL You're going to have an easier time finding value the first three weeks of the season Then in the playoffs that is absolutely true in college basketball The market's pretty sharp right now and You know, it's you know, it's not like we're having the same conversation in November where You know, it it wouldn't be as valid a point to look at where something just closed, right? Exactly Okay, so Ed is looking at Iowa State plus four and a half against Baylor for that game on Thursday But also some big 10 conference tournament futures like in Iowa 14 to 1 Illinois 13 to 1 Looking for a route for potentially fading Purdue in the big 10 That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread But as mentioned, we are back once again Next week on Monday night for our NCAA tournament live stream Ed we with me that a cork are gonna be with me breaking down everything you need to know To win your tournament pool. We'll talk about Strategy talk about each region talk about national champions the things that matter for filling out a good brackets Ed, uh, good luck to you until then enjoy the conference tournaments Anything you want to plug over on the power rank over over on the uh, the football analytics show Yeah, I've been doing a lot of work with March madness in my newsletter There will be except for sunday though There's going to be an email every day that's getting ready for you to win your bracket and all the strategy and Some of the analytics goodies that you're just not going to find elsewhere Most of them will be also posted on my site But not not every single one and certainly not the cheat sheet That will make it really easy for you to to fill out your bracket if you're running out of time So check that out at the power rank dot com I will also have some things going on on my podcast the football analytics show There's nothing up there right now, but as we get into next week There will certainly be uh, some analysis there as well So make sure you're subscribed on the football analytics show there Check out Ed's newsletter by going to the power rank dot com check out ed on twitter as well At the power rank i'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s again The ncwa tournament livestream is on monday 6 p.m. Eastern on the fandal youtube page and up here on the covering the spread podcast Feed after that so subscribe on the fandal youtube page for here on the covering the spread podcast feed to get that Right as it goes up. Good luck to all of you with your men's conference tournament bets We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some nba and some usc This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network