 So as we speak we're at the highest levels we've been in the 2100 all year actually something akin to 16-month highs I believe so Things looking a bit more improved on the equity market front. We'll discuss that in a bit more detail As I pull up the charts For the time being we have the risk warning on the screen Any questions whatsoever be it on The trials of Deutsche Bank some particular chart pattern you were looking at any extra currency you want me to look at anything along those lines You know, I'm happy to I'm happy to do that So shut the question in at any point. I'm happy to respond For those of you that's the first time attending this this way that I should take about half an hour, right and There we have it. So I mentioned the FTSE 100 at the start there. So I think I'm going to dive right into the FTSE 100 chart you'll notice today that there's a rally up in the FTSE 100 perhaps corresponded with a pretty sharp drop in the British pound The two moves are certainly not unrelated Obviously the FTSE 250 is doing well today. So you can't attribute all the gains in the FTSE to the pound It's a lot less multi-nationals a bit more euclid Domestic and the focus firms in the FTSE 250 which is still doing well Part of it Part of why the FTSE 100 is doing particularly well is we do have a lot of foreign multi-nationals who may get money in foreign currencies And they're translating them back now to a weaker British pound which boosts their earnings So almost what you could call like a nominal rise in the FTSE 100 Not such a strong rise if you just put it in the pound sterling terms So very simply talking about this in the You know in the previous couple of webinars that we've been in a trading range In the UK 100 You know and In the course of a trading range, you know generally what you look for is opportunities near the bottom of the range to buy it out The opportunities near the top of the range to sell it down. It's not been the most straightforward trading range And something i've been eyeing Was that we're still above these two lows over here, which ultimately kind of dictated the state of play We had taken out a swing low here and so What I was eyeing up was some evidence that the market was going to roll over In some kind of retracement from this decline We never really particularly got it right until the high or rolled over from the high We didn't even quite get if I zoom in a bit here. We um, we basically pulled off The 6800 mark Which you know, the bottom was right in between the the 61.8 and the 50% fiber retracements And uh, market showed a fair bit of strength This time last week And uh, and the index is generally pulled higher, isn't it? Now as you can see we're kind of breaking out of this range. It's not confirmed yet. Ideally, we want the close for today um a close for the week might leave you a bit late in the In the proceedings in terms of confirmation if the market does move a lot higher from here But just the the interpretation here is if this breakout does sustain Is that we're no longer in sort of looking to sell the top of the range mode We're more into, you know, this okay, this appears that this You know, we're we're kind of pushing higher. So we're in an uptrend. What we're looking more is for opportunities to buy the dips On a sort of daily chart perspective and maybe just from a more short term Day trading perspective Maybe a bit more of a bias to the long side because that keeps you in line with this kind of longer term trend If indeed we get this sustained breakout So now that we've taken out this Is resistance from august and the 15th of august that high really? Is pretty much The next first layer of support we'd expect to see if the market does pull back And then, you know, this short-term swing high here from the 29th of september That would be That'd be support number two and you'd kind of you'd kind of want to see these kind of areas holding If we get back down to 6900 again, and it looked if that would look more like a Breakout to the range And see could see us put straight back down to 6800 again I'm tired to really Put your finger on quite why we're getting the breakout here other than the you know, the the the currency effect as I mentioned the the trouble in Europe's banking sector certainly not gone away Although obviously a bit of kind of temporary relief at the moment because um, we're all basically just waiting for The department of justice to to give us some details on what the size of the fine on dodge bank would actually be And that can tell us, you know in what state Germany's big little ender is in But the fact that they could have to raise capital even get a government bailout is obviously weighed on sentiment across all the banks And there's very few banks listed in the 5100 so that's a bit of negative force here But as you can see not not not do negative Now i'm going to switch gears from the uk Over to Germany since we were just talking about my budget today Now as you can see quite a big turnaround here on on friday Um things were looking pretty soft for the bulk of the week, uh for the you know for the last sort of few days Um And we just didn't manage to take out this This low here. So it was a similar sort of phenomenon where we put up to the week in chart You know, we basically this was the the big swing point that we took out traded a new uh new range 10 770 being the top that previous peak being the low And we took it out we gapped lower on those, um, you know, there's kind of european banking concerns But the following week up again Again, try to take out the low and fail to do so. So germany's closed today So obviously this is just friday's move um, but you know judging the performance of Of markets in the rest of europe, you know, we'd expect the markets up here open up to here close to these highs tomorrow And it looks like we've got a false breakdown and again, we'll be we'll be eyeing These highs here because you know third test Doesn't necessarily Um always lead through a breakout could easily see the market pullback again But the fact that we try to take out these lows and fail to do so to me suggests Uh, that's actually a mark that's now looking a bit to the upside So Unlike the footsie where we didn't quite get the full pullback we wanted in the germany 30 We kind of got it because You may remember that I was sort of buying these lows here And uh, that kind of lined up pretty nicely with 78.6 and you can see those two worked quite well together in combination With just a round number of 10 700 is resistance. The market did roll over straight back to the support Which would be a natural Profit taking level if you were short from up here, but obviously if you're looking for any more, we haven't got it Um The market pulled back nicely So it looks like a bit of a positive buy. I mean, we're still just about inside these ranges in equity But it looks like we're switching gears to another push higher Well, obviously failed to mention that for just jump quickly back to the the uk 100 chart. So we've got those pretty big areas of resistance coming up Because uh, obviously 7 000 which we're just shy of now But then we've got um a weekly high um at 7 70 and then 7 127 is the record high And it's also the 61.8 extension of this rally here beyond this peak So you can see there there's a 61.8 and it's that so that will be a tough barrier to get through But as we worm our way down in the short term basis, I think the The trend is higher Now switching over to the us So apologies for this bit. This has been a bit of a headache in chart to be honest But again, I just wanted to highlight this low have been taken out here So that was the one that we had our eye on That big push lower But what ended up happening was that I pulled up to the weekly chart for a bit more clarity We've already talked about this in the previous couple of weeks. I know but just to kind of go over it Is that we had a big big level here basically in sort of This basically 18 000 but just a bit shy a bit bit below it between the 17 900 and 18 000 Excuse me Is uh has proved to be a big support level. We've got a rebound off there So we're dealing with that rebound at the moment And you can see there's a little trend line here supporting the the lows Some higher lows being put in will suggest that we Eventually try and push up into and above this 18 450 mark. That's the barrier here That was also This swing low here bit similar to the germany 30 chart. We had to kind of break down point came back And i'm pulled lower but unlike germany 30, you know some relative strength in the us versus germany As we didn't put in a you know false breakout, we just made a higher high, so Marking looking relatively strong. We're obviously not above these These peaks up here yet to kind of put us in a fully kind of ball mode, but It would appear that we're looking we're aiming back towards the top of the rim the top of the range again So in terms of very short-term training, I think the bias is higher Until we get to the top of the range and then obviously we're looking for opportunities to to see if that resistance holds And it's pretty hard to speculate past that but you know, you know the fact that this Resistance has held the support so well You know and considering the kind of price action in the other market leads you to sort of believe that maybe we're on for a breakout high You know and I guess part of this more broadly and I'll touch on this when we go to currencies now Is that we've got three months realistically until the the next Fed meeting in which The the Federal Reserve could actually Decide to hike interest rates so almost a bit of just breathing space for markets at the moment and we'll get into the point in the corporate earnings where They fall out in the energy sectors starting to come out with the year over year figures So we're getting to the point where actually we could see some earnings growth in the S&P 5 Perhaps as early as this this quarter and US earnings starting a couple of weeks Definitely worth mentioning the British pound today um Richard I know you've mentioned the dolly in I'll uh, you know, I'll jump to that one next So this is a very short-term chart Let me explain kind of the the thought process here. So actually that's obviously much Let's just have a look at the daily chart So, you know, I'm sure you all recognize this chart brexit drop blah blah blah. We've been in a range We took out this kind of rising trend line here. I know you had two touches, but there were significant lows Almost worth a minute that's been slightly confused as the picture So now today we've come down. We've um hit the lowest Since the day of the low Put in the low on July 6th Um, but you can see there's there's two important points here. There's a swing low here. It's at 2865 And then this swing low down here, which I think I said was uh, Well, let's look at the short-term chart to confirm that So we jumped down to an hourly chart You can see we pretty much just dipped right below That's oh 28 the 2850 handle really um And we're basically holding 2850 and then you can see as the markets pop tire above there It's now found support to that other daily though At 12865 and I've dropped down to the short-term chart that I was on You can see that's almost precisely 12865 And you can see it's the 61.8 retracement of this little pop off the lows that we've had so When you're eyeing up a long-term resistant long-term support level in this case You know, this is a kind of a nice example where The market pushed through Maybe taken out some stops below these long-term support levels pushed higher on the stronger economic data that we had so UK manufacturing according to PMI data hit strongest in two years another bit of evidence that's the Fears of brexit induced immediate slowdown proven pretty unfounded And so I've got to push off those lows from the economic data. We pull back Right again, you know on the money about 12865 long-term daily support Again just as a reminder It's that level here And we're pushing higher again. So evidence starting to pick up That we may be going to um get a bottom in around this 12850 Had a big sell down here. Obviously the sentiment from this sell-off is um, you know, there's still people looking for for selling opportunities And there's certainly there's certainly scope First to drop down to the 78.6. You know, that's where all these the bodies of these candles sit around here And even scope for a false break and you know, you have to be prepared for that but um, you know In and around some of these levels are, you know, relatively low risk opportunities to Search for some sort of bottom if you felt inclined to do so What I mean by low risk obviously is just to suggest that if You know, if you're looking at the difference here between the 78.6 128 56 and then the lows here at one 28 46 that's 10 pips And you know, a natural upside would be up around these peaks over here The hundreds extent a hundred percent extension Of this little move here Fits right in around the area around the 129 50 mark so 90 pips Were we to get up to there for 10 pips down here? That's that's that's not to say that the mark can't drop straight through the lows and take out those 10 pips Of course it can but you know, that's the kind of profile of a potentially decent trade keeping in mind obviously it's completely against the the trend as we're looking at it at the moment but The trend in you know, depending on what time frame you're looking at this trend is down You know, maybe on a sort of four-hourly basis But if you're looking more at a daily chart, you know, we're in a range So pick your poison I would look at let's look at the old dolly and we have the tank cans there they overnight Um, yeah, that was a pretty flat bit of a non mover the dolly and picked up a bit so Um, I think on the on the actual data release I think dolly and dropped but You know, you barely notice it We're in this triangle pattern at the moment basically with um the dolly and I don't know if that works off the lows there does it? It um, yeah, it works pretty good So we've got a rising kind of trend line up there. So pretty well defined triangle pattern You know, I wouldn't say there's much to be read from this Just because we're already a general idea with with a triangle pattern like this Is that you want to see a breakout two thirds of the way in and we know we're pretty much at the At the end of the pattern here, so I wouldn't put much weight on a breakout either way of this trend line. In fact, you could almost I would not be surprised at all if the initial breakout proves to be the wrong one and actually goes the market goes the other way Well, one thing I would say is that it looks increasingly unlikely That we're putting in a double bottom or even triple bottom as somebody was describing here. So one two three three You know three swings to make the form a triple bottom a triple bottom should look like this Swings down touches swings up again. So that's fine. It should swing down again Pretty much go up to that neckline again swing down and up up to the neckline again and then break the neckline That that's a triple bottom. This is a is a is a triangle where we've got pretty close to the The end of it so To me it's looking like we're going to take out 100th moment And you know if we're using using this top triangle trend line as a guide You know that we you know, we're pretty close to potential resistance from this Sloping trend line and then the next obvious one would be this swing peak up here around 102 75 Obviously this whole this whole range kind of extends This has been working for a while this kind of this kind of area 102 70 Yeah, it's been a while, you know kind of popped up through their tests down test test test test So potentially up there to test again. If not this trend line Before perhaps remove lower Obviously fundamentally We just had the bank of Japan meeting they they changed the You know, they changed the goalposts a bit. They're now targeting the yield curve Um a bit of skepticism about whether that can work, you know trying to push up Long-term rates but keep long short-term rates lower It's difficult to do that without basically sending out the signal that they are tapering back their policy And to be honest, you know the the reaction to the news was positive in that the dollar the the yen dropped When they were the bank of Japan and outside But my reading is that pretty much the bank of Japan know they've run out of tools And they're tapering back their their economic stimulus and You know if anything it's going to be replaced with with fiscal stimulus So that that that reading would be yen positive dolly in dropping. Um, so There you have it I hope that's clear. Um, yeah Richard you especially let me know if any extra questions on that Switch over to euro don still still on our brexit rain basically this was the brexit day And still inside there really you can see we've got a fairly decent kind of downsloping trend line here but nonetheless still within I've got this kind of big square here, but you can kind of draw almost a second one between these two as well So these you know the obviously the the 200 day moving averages is holding support pretty well, but we're also putting in lower lower highs fairly clear cut rsi support down here So take note if we do end up taking out that 40 sort of 40 44 in rsi you drop below there Plus the 200 day moving average that would be a a full warning. I would think of a drop back down to 109 that's um Yeah, I'm gonna say the same thing every week. It's it's it's a at the moment Euro dollar is not a fantastic pair for trading. Um, it will definitely have its day after this prolonged period of doing this It's going to have another one of these Maybe not as drastic as that, but it's it's it's got to happen I mean this kind of uh, we go from trend to range. That's that's just a cycle in the market So we're going to get a nice trend in your dollar But it's not outing at the moment So now I'm going to switch gears to uh, the commodities obviously the big news last week was that opec reached an agreement Or an agreement to agree I should say on an oil output cut And so, you know, that's the trick for the big move off here in Brent and you can see it's holding this new rising trend line nicely and so I've got a kind of more aggressive range here of uh, sort of 51 Based on these cash prices, I should say slightly different if you're trading there in the um, the near-term future But sort of 43 is the base 51 is the peak Um, so we're looking to we're aiming to take out 50 at the moment on the cash price Um Getting a bit of a false breakout at the moment But obviously this was the big move here after the opec decision Um, the test would be whether we can take out this um This 51 level And that will probably dictate that the range has shifted From rather than having a base In around 41, you know, it's going to be more like these pre Um pre-meeting lows around 45 um And then if we can get above the 51 it's going to you know, the bottom of the range is going to be actually Closer to what is now currently at resistance And you know, I would I would be looking at the market to to push up into the kind of 55s area And uh last but not least just have a look at gold Probably the big one for gold I mean, obviously the dollar as well will be non-farm payrolls at the end of the week If you're available, please log into the the non-farm payrolls webinar that will be hosted by michael and collin That'll be going on live throughout throughout the data release but um Gold and what I would say here is that You know last week we saw quite a fair bit of volatility a bit of you know fair bit of um Concerns surrounding dorge bank, etc. But Gold didn't really get any particular benefit from that. What should have been a period of of flows into safe havens So equity markets been pushing higher and Again, and then we also got three months until the fed decision and at the moment Uh, there's there's a sort of general belief that they will hike rates And there's probably not going to be too much. It's going to really change that even this week's non-farm payrolls We've got another two following this one before our decision So it sort of looks like gold's running out of steam a bit here. I mean, I still think that generally um There's a lot of positive drivers for gold But the the price action has been weak in the face of what should be quite good news for for gold but equities are you know under pressure and the Fed is not raised rates, but It's um You know, obviously putting in we're putting a series of our highs here. There's just a big support at 1 300 Once 3 1 300 gets taken out I think it's going to be a pretty swift move down to 1 250 I said the same thing last week we haven't it hasn't happened yet, but um potentially look for non-farm payrolls this week or the lead up to it as a possible catalyst for that breakout to finally happen So I think that's about it. Um, God, it's got a big finish to the week with the non-farm payrolls Um, we'll have to look for any developments From dod bank with the Department of Justice I don't expect that they're going to reach any kind of official deal and We probably won't know how much dodge bank is going to pay Department of Justice this week as soon as we do know that will alleviate some of the Fears around the financial sector Um, but otherwise we're in a bit of a holding pattern here. We haven't got the central banks to worry about Earnings don't start for another couple of weeks. So I think that to some extent explains how You know how markets have a little bit of room to break to the upside And obviously watch out for which pound here some Beginning evidence of a bottom around 12850 so let's see how that pans out I'm going to end the official recording here, but um, just had a quick professional week So I'll have a look at that for anyone who's interested