 The NASCAR Cup Series is going to the Brickyard this week for the Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. It's very awkward to call Indy a new track. It's getting the new track treatment for Cup Series from a DFS perspective with practice and qualifying, but not really sure how I call Indy a new track given its history, given that the Cup Series itself has been here since 1994. So hey, it's a road course. It's weird. I'm figuring out terminology as we go. Either way, we have practice, we have qualifying this week, and we have another road course, number six on the schedule for this year, which means we should know who the contenders will be for Sunday's race. And I will say some of said contenders pretty under-sourced for DFS prior to practice and qualify. We're going to break these down and let you know what you need to know for Sunday's race. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Numberfire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior rider and analyst for Numberfire.com. Here to break down Sunday's Verizon 200 at the Brickyard. Lock at one PM each and on Sunday. And it should be a fun one. First, though a quick thank you to Austin Swain for filling in for me last week. Austin hosted the Heat Check Fantasy podcast from NASCAR and correctly picked the winner in Kyle Larson. So maybe Austin needs to replace me at some point. We'll see. But either way, thanks to Austin for holding on the house and doing a good job there. As always, catch him with UFC next week. Should be a lot of fun to get Austin back on the podcast once again, which you can find by subscribing to the Numberfire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. And while you're there, leave us a rating and review as well. Hey soccer fans, this season FanDual and Captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest. Introducing Captain Morgan's Soccer Pickup, a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play. The contest is simple. All you have to do is make quick predictions for Saturday games in the soccer season. You'll earn free points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week. Head over to FanDual and enter the Captain Morgan Soccer Pickup today. Must be 21 plus to participate for more details on the FanDual.com or download the FanDual Fantasy app. Eligibility restrictions apply. And don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the captain. Let's get to our track breakdown for this week. And because it is another new track, we have to start once again with the schedule for this week. Practice is on Saturday at 11 a.m. Eastern. We'll get one practice session here. The laps here are shorter than they are at Kota and Road America's Maytime Perspective, which means we might get five lap averages for some drivers in addition to the single lap averages. Not totally sure we will. Last year, for the Extendity Series, they did a practice session and there were 27 drivers who went at least five laps. Maybe not consecutively, but that does give me at least some hope. We'll get potentially five lap averages for some drivers out there. So we'll see laps about 93 to 95 seconds at this track. So hopefully we'll get some good data from that practice session. Qualifying is on Sunday. That means that once again, we have a small window to fill out lineups. Qualifying starts at 9 a.m. Eastern and that means it should be done by around 10 a.m. Lock is at 1 p.m. So our window to fill out lineups is from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. As always, how you treat that comes down to what your goal is here. If your goal is to fill out the best lineups and profits, you need to be around in that window. Qualifying matters a lot for an 82 lap race and that means you need to be around if you want to fill out the best lineups. If your goal is to have fun, I will never discourage you from having fun, feel free. Fire in lineups. Go ahead. That's totally fine. I'm not going to stop you from having fun. But if your goal is to just make profitable lineups and you can't be around from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday, I would sit this week out because you want that edge. You want every edge you can get and qualifying does matter a lot. The reason qualifying matters was very evident in Road America. There were two separate red flags during qualifying. As a result, some really fast cars never logged a full good lap. Four of the five drivers in the perfect fan to align it for that race started outside the top 30. It was an extreme version of this. I wouldn't expect the same thing to happen this weekend, but it could. We have to react and be aggressive if it does. That's why we say to accept a place differential where you can find it. Road America, there's plenty. We had it all over the place. If you load it up on that place differential, you profited in a big way. At Kota, Circuit of the Americas, there were some three of the five three of the five drivers in the perfect lineup started outside the top 19 spots. But the other two did start inside the top eight. So if you have fast cars starting further back, target them aggressively, make them your cash game plays, make them your core for tournaments, go overweight on them. If not, drift closer to the front and look for drivers who can finish well. A good way to think of this is by putting drivers into buckets. There are two buckets we want our drivers to come from. The first one is the bucket of drivers starting further back who can get you a top 10 finish. The second bucket is the driver starting near the front who can get you a top five and push for a win. If a driver fits in one of those two buckets, you lock them in and feel good about them. If they don't fit in either, they're a tough sell. There are two guys we'll talk about later on who might not have the ability to win, but do have fast cars and very low salaries. We'll talk about them later on, but they are the exceptions more so than the norms. That's how I want to view things for this week. It is possible you have to target drivers just on the top half of the field. That has happened before at road courses with qualifying, but I wouldn't assume that it happens here. We'd be prepared for everything. Keep in mind it's possibly target drivers close to the front to make reconciliation, but our overall goal is to accept place differential when it is presented to you. To determine if drivers fit in those buckets, you can look at practice times. We also have a ton of history on road courses we can look at just this year. This again is the sixth road course race of 2021. We know who will be competitive and who won't. If a driver has not shown life on these road courses yet, I'd have a hard time believing they will buck that trend this week. Definitely look at practice times. They help a lot, but our major emphasis should be drivers who have run well on road courses thus far. We'll discuss that plenty in the tier by tier breakdown. To recap here, we do have a window to fill out lineups this week. That window is from 10 a.m. to 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. If you're not around, you better not be trying to profit because that's going to be when the best lineups are assembled for Sunday's race. We want to accept place differential where we can find it. If we get it like Road America where it's in bunches, great. Take it. If it's like Kota where we can find a couple of guys, great. Take it. If not, you will have to drift closer to the front. Finally, find drivers who fit in two buckets, say a top 10 finisher starting deeper in the field or those who can finish inside the top five with winning upside starting near the front. You want drivers in those two buckets and finally use past road course races and practice data to determine if drivers fit inside those two buckets. If they don't fit inside those two buckets, a tough sell. Talk about some guys who could be minor exceptions due to very low salaries in just a bit. With that said, let's dive now into our tier by tier breakdown for this race. This will be subject to change based on practice on Saturday and qualifying on Sunday. I will mention drivers who I will target exclusively. They start towards the back, but also drivers who I'm going to rank towards the front. This is assuming they start near each other, how I'd rank them right now. The elite tier on Fandall is Chase Elliott at $14,000 through Kyle Bush at $12,500. The headliners here obviously are Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. I think they are a full tier above everybody else in this field. They're above Truex and Bush by a full tier. Between the two I'd favor Chase Elliott. He was probably going to run down Kyle Larson last week if he had had more time and he did that. Almost won that race despite having an extra pit stop in that race. If you look at my numbers, they do give a slight edge towards Chase Elliott. My win simulations and projected average driving position, but I think that they're potentially underselling them a bit too. Chase Elliott number one for me, Kyle Larson two. If you're looking for an assumed winner, a guy who can win this race, they are not shockingly number one and number two for this week. For the rest of this year, I'll go Truex above Bush, but it is pretty close. Truex, really good speed at Watkins Glen. He's been an awesome passer on road courses this year. He seemed to have the better upside than Bush in that race. Could have been because Bush started deeper in the pack, but I think that this one is one where I'm fine letting practice and qualifying dictate how I want to rank those two guys. For now, this tier has ranked Chase one, Larson two, Truex three, and Kyle Bush number four. The second tier is Denny Hamlin at $12,000 through Joey Logano at $10,000. I think two guys in this range have the upside to push Larson and Elliott for the win. That's actually two teammates at Joe Gibbs Racing and Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell. Hamlin is $12,000. Bell is 11,5. Bell was the one guy able to hang with Larson and Truex last week. That was when Elliott was back in the pack, so maybe he couldn't hang with Elliott, but Bell spun while fighting for the lead, and he still finished seven. But he won Daytona. He was second in Elkhart Lake. If you add in Watkins Glen, Bell has been in contention for the win in three of five road course races this year. I love that. I think that he's a good win pick for this week, for sure. I do like Christopher Bell. Hamlin hasn't been as close to winning, but he has constantly been at the front. He can benefit from if there's some chaos or a wreck at some point. Hamlin ranks third behind Elliott and Larson in aggregate average running position on road course this year. I think he has the upside to surprise here. I'd put Bell above Hamlin, but Hamlin, definitely a guy who can win this race. AJ Almonddinger is in this tier as well. I will prefer him if he dips deeper in the field. He has run three road course races this year, and his best average running position is 14. I think he can run at the front. He finished fifth. I believe at Kota. He was seventh at Daytona. He can run at the front, but I don't have his win odds super high. I like Colleague Racing's equipment, but I think it's okay to do them a bit less favorably than guys in Joe Good's racing cars, guys with Hendrick, et cetera, et cetera. Not off Almonddinger, but I prefer other guys in this tier barring what happens in practice and qualifying. If Dinger does dip in qualifying, I will be there, but if he is around guys like Legano, Hamlin, Bell, I will favor those guys for sure. For right now, this ranking in this tier is Bell 1, Hamlin 2, Legano 3, Byron 4, and Almonddinger 5. It's mostly the equipment that does push him a bit lower behind those other options. The mid-range on Fandull is Kevin Harvick at $9,500 through Kurt Busch 82. This tier is awesome. I love most of it. It has a lot of guys who are great on road courses, especially at the bottom of the tier, but my favorite guy in the entire field from a salary perspective is in this tier. That guy is Kurt Busch at $8,200. I have no idea why he's here. He should be around $8,000 based on my number. He's not, so I'll take it, but I bet him to podium earlier on this week. He has been awesome on road courses not just this year, but also last year too. He has three fourth-place finishes since he started last year across seven races on road courses. He was six at Sonoma as well. If you look at aggregate average running position on road courses this year, he ranks seventh there. His salary is so low that I think that I was talking before about drivers fitting in two different buckets. He's kind of the top five bucket. I'm not sure if he can win this race necessarily, but I do think that he is someone I will target almost regardless of where they start because the finishing upside is so good. Kurt Busch, even if he does not start deeper in the pack, will be someone I use hopefully aggressively on Sunday. If he does qualify poorly, my goodness, there is no limit to the amount of Kurt Busch I will use for Sunday's race. Austin Cindrick is $9,000. I prefer him over Almond Dinger among the road course ringers, the non-regulars. He has had a car fast enough to win at both Coda and Road America. He had issues. Coda had some stuff happen. The Road America, I believe, broke some equipment while leading that race. He's $1,500 lower salary than Almond Dinger, but I like his upside more due to his equipment. I'm going to put Cindrick behind Busch due to consistency, but Cindrick can win this race. I think he definitely can. If he got him at 3% to win my simulations, that sounds low, but it is very high for someone of his lack of a track record. It's lower than his betting odds, but that's fine. I think that he is deserving of where he's at for right now. I also do want to briefly highlight Chase Briscoe in this tier. He actually is one on this course. He won here in the Xfinity series last year, so the lone winner on this course. He has three top 10s on road courses this year, and I believe those are his only top 10s the entire year. He was sixth in two of those races, so Briscoe is going to rank behind Cindrick and Busch because I like their upside more. I think that they have more realistic shots at winning this race, and I'll be higher on them, but Briscoe would be amazing if he were to qualify poorly, and I don't need to choose. I can have all three if I want. I can have Busch, Cindrick, Briscoe in the same lineup if I want because, why not? I mean, let's do it. I don't need to pick. I'm going to rank Briscoe third behind him. It's Busch 1, Cindrick 2, Briscoe 3. I'll go Ryan Blaney 4, Alex Bowman 5, Kevin Harvick 6, but the top three guys on this tier. Tremendous options, and I love this tier a lot. That's not to speak ill of the value tier, which is Brad Keselowski at $8,000, three Eric Almerola at $6,500, and there are more good road racers down here, including Kurt Busch's teammate Ross Chastain with $7,500. He's similar to Kurt Busch, where the value is so good on Chastain that I'll likely use him no matter where he starts. He was fourth at Kota, seventh at Sonoma, seventh at Road America, 12th at Watkins Glen. Chastain has had a top 10 average running position in three of those four races. He's tied for 10th in aggregate average running position on road courses, despite having a rough race in Daytona. See, he's 10th there, but he's 18th in salary. I don't get it. I think both he and Kurt Busch are outrageously under salary this week. I'm going to be heavy on those guys here. I love them both, so I'm very excited to use Busch and Chastain. I mentioned before there were some exceptions to the bucket rule where they need to be race-winning upside or certainly deeper in the pack. Those guys might be exceptions because I believe they are so under-salaried for this week. I'll be heavy on Ross Chastain, really much for guardless, but we'll see how things crank out and qualify. Tyler Radick is right above Chastain in salary and grades out well also. He had top 10s at Kota, Road America, and Watkins Glen, and he won a stage at Road America. The reason he won that stage is the reason why we can be slightly concerned and slightly lower on Radick, and that's that he's gunning for points. He is battling Austin Dill and his teammate for the final playoff spot. If there is a dilemma between getting stage points and trying to pit early, position yourself for the next stage, he's going to choose the stage points every single time. That can still lead to good days for DFS. As he has shown with the top 10 finishes at Kota, Road America, and Watkins Glen, but it's not optimal. It's not gunning towards finishing position, which is our main focus from a DFS perspective. It's a slight concern. It does not push Radick out of play, but it is in my mind, where it's enough where I will put him behind Chastain for sure. I do at least want to be cognizant of that, that he could emphasize points rather than finishing position, and he should, honestly. It's the smart thing to do, just not optimal for DFS. Matt DiBenedetto has been running better on road courses recently. He's had back-to-back top 11 finishes, and he's been good on road courses in the past when he was with Levine Family Racing. This is a good tier two. I would rank at Chastain 1, Radick 2. Those guys are in a very good tier. Chastain may be a half-tier head of Radick, and then half a step down from Radick to be DiBenedetto. Brad Kazalowski 4, he's super low salary, but also, he's listening to the Positive Regression podcast of David Smith and Alan Kavanaugh. And apparently, Kazalowski has wrecked seven times in five road course races this year. Not great, Bob. So, I'll put him 4. Michael McDowell 5. I just think that the upside of Chastain, Radick, and DiBenedetto is better than what McDowell brings, despite the fact he is a very good road course racer. The punting tier is Chris Busher at $6,000 and down. And two guys I like down here quite a bit are Chris Busher and Austin Dillon. Busher is $6,000. Dillon is $5,500. Those guys rank 16th and 17th respectively in aggregate average running position on road courses. They're ahead of Kevin Harvick, Michael McDowell, Ryan Blaney, and Brad Kazalowski. They're the only guys in the punting tier at $6,000 or lower in the top 23 in this metric. And again, they're 16th and 17th. I would still consider Eric Jones as well. And it's worth noting that Dillon is never at a top 10 finish on a road course. Seems bad, but much better this year. So, I think that Dillon and Busher super in play if they qualify poorly. Same thing with Eric Jones. I am broadly at least open to Cole Custer, Ricky Santos Jr. and Cori LaJoy. If I desperately need savings and they qualify poorly, but I think to me this tier is about Busher and Dillon, depending on where they qualify, but Jones, Custer, Stenhouse, and LaJoy, guys, I would at least consider if they were to qualify poorly enough. So that wraps up the tier by tier breakdown. Let's finish things up here with the win picks for this week. And feeling the pressure not just because Austin had Larson last week, but also because the lower salary guys were kind of on a heater before the Olympic break here. They got wins out of the lower salary win picks from Kurt Busch and Alex Bowman, runner-up finish by Christopher Bell a couple of times at New Hampshire and Road America. So, feeling the pressure for the upper tier, I can't really pick against Chase Elliott. I'm not going to bet him at his current odds at plus 180, but like, this isn't betting. It's just podcast picks. So, Chase Elliott, my pick to win for this weekend at Indy Shocker, I know. Among the lower salary guys, I went back and forth for like at least two and a half minutes, which may not sound long for me. It was a very long time. I was very busy on Fridays, but I still went back and forth in these guys. Couldn't decide who Austin Cinderg and Kurt Busch. I'm going to pick officially Austin Cinderg. And that is because I think his upside is a bit better. We saw him leading at Kota, leading at Road America at least very briefly. And I think that among those two guys, Kurt or Cinderg is the guy who could win this race. I mentioned before that I bet Kurt Busch to podium. I did not bet him to win. The reason wasn't not sure he has the upside to beat guys like Elliott Larson and etc. But I think that Cinderg can. So, the official win picks for this week are Chase Elliott in the above 10,000 tier Austin Cinderg below. We'll see if we can keep the hot streak going once again for this week. That is all that we have here for today on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast. But again, make sure you have the schedule in mind for this weekend. Practice on Saturday at 11 and then qualifying at 9. And you can set lineups on Sunday between 10 a.m. and 1 p.m. I know it's annoying. It's annoying for me too. But hey, they had a race at Indy two years ago, which was on week one, the NFL season. That was a Sunday morning too. It was bad. This is not that bad at least. So, I guess we'll take that for sure. If you have questions for me about NASCAR, DFS or anything else, you can find me on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. Also, make sure you follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Make sure you are subscribed to the FanDuel YouTube page or the FanDuel YouTube page and also the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, we've got UFC, NASCAR, PGA, MLB and NFL coming up just around the corner as well. While you're there, make sure you leave a rating and review as well. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your lineups for Indianapolis. It should be a lot of fun to see the first time on that road course, and we'll see. We can win some money once again. This has been the E-Check Fantasy Podcast, powered by Number Fire.