 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network The first games of the 2023 men's college basketball tournament got underway last night with the first Four which means it is time to dive in to the opening round on Thursday We're gonna break down every region in action with Austin cast get his read on those games Where he has seen value to get you ready for which should be a fantastic day in sports This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim saw this. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Austin cast check them out on Twitter at Austin cast You can find his work over at number fire calm Austin. Happy turny time to you. How you doing today? Doing really well. How are you doing? I'm doing great. I have to ask you though for personal reasons I'm filling my bracket and I kind of like Watching basketball this year. It was hard to get super enthused but Indiana at times But there were also times where they look really good. You're an IU fan How do you feel about Indiana from a bracket perspective not betting perspective bracket perspective? Can I feel okay? Having them win more than one game You can yes, I was not the most confident answer I've ever heard Well, I'll say this I I really wanted them as an IU fan to get a four seed I always feel like there's a huge difference than being a four or a five when it comes to that first-round game and They did and I think they're fortunate to get that and the five seed in their little pod Miami I think might be the worst five seed. So I think the draw was kind to them, but I Don't I've seen IU play really really well this year And I've seen IU be very beatable a lot of the time So I don't know but I think you can say that for so many of the four five six seeds That's could be just chaos this year. I mean honestly like there are three seeds You can say that for it's a weird year for sure, but I just I don't know that region specifically has given me fits So Hopefully they do something. I'm not super high in the Big 10. In fact, I'm pretty low on them across the board But they might be the one exception. So I'm glad to hear You're not totally totally out obviously not the most confident answer which gives me a little bit of pause But we'll see how that plays out What we're gonna do for today with Austin is break down all the Thursday games in the men's college basketball tournament We'll go through where Austin seen value in each region and get you ready there from a spread and money line total perspective Later on I'll go through some NASCAR stuff for Atlanta to dump that at the end In case you're trying to bet that in addition the NCAA tournament if you want to talk some Friday games We're back later on today with Ben Stevens of sports grid He'll talk about the Friday games outline where he is seeing value there Going region by region walls talks in futures with both Ben and Austin as well If you want to get our bracket breakdown show search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We had Dr. Ed Feng and Bennett Corkin with us on Monday breaking down Strategy breaking down each region breaking down national champions all that in the same place You can find that on the covering the spread podcast me but also on the fendal YouTube page So just search for that wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe check it out And if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well We'll dive in to the Thursday games here in just one second But this March take a shot at college hoops with a no sweat bet on fendal sports But it doesn't matter if you're new to fendal already have an account right now All customers can tip off the tourney with a no sweat bet just signed into your fendal sportsbook account to claim yours today Then you can bet on everything from the money line to point spreads that by the 12 seed matchup You've been eyeing all net that is safe secure and super easy to use There's no better place to bet the tournament than fendal sportsbook Just signed into your fendal sportsbook account to claim your no sweat that today make every moment more fendal Must be 21 plus in present in select states bonus issued is not withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Max bonus bet $5 unless otherwise specified Restricted applies see full terms at sportsbook.fendal.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler hope is here gambling help line ma.org or call 800 327 5050 for 24 seven sport massachusetts in new york one eight seven seven eight hope and wire text hope and why Fendal is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agree with the kansas star casino LLC call 1 800 gambler or was a fendal com Slash rg in arizona 1 800 next step or text to acceptify 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in indiana 1809 with it and why oming in kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 or in kansas ks gambling help calm louisiana 1877 770 stop in mariland md gambling health orc in west virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now we'll dive into the actual games here for thursday in just one second But first I wanted to talk to you because we haven't talked futures yet on the show We talked about the brackets. We're talking about individual games, but I'm not the biggest futures guy So I wanted to pick your brain about any futures you like before tip off on Thursday So when you look at the board at vandal sportsbook, what stands out to you there right now? So it's funny how this worked out because you brought up indiana. I didn't know you were going to do that I'm really zeroed in on the 14 pot of iuk and kin state and drake in miami I think miami and iuk are both Fairly vulnerable. So I'm iing drake and kin state sweet 16 futures. Oh Drake is plus 420 to make the sweet 16 while kin state is plus 520 By our nerd metric here at number fire iuk has a historical nerd of a seven seed They've shown a high ceiling beating Purdue twice including once at mackey and what was probably their best game of the year But I think they benefited greatly from a big 10 that has just one top 20 squad on kin palm I you barely shoots any threes they rank 355th and three point attempt rate, which is last among tourney teams And they're just a four and a half point favorite so odd makers aren't too high on them It's a similar story for miami by nerd. They're comparable to a historical 11 seed so yeah 11 They were it you kind of get that across the board is a little bit of a down here in college basketball in general They were also aided by a down here from the conference the ACC has just one team in the top 30 and none in the top 20 on kin palm And the hurricanes haven't had some close luck Close game luck go their way. They went seven and four and games decided by five or fewer points So Taken drake and can state to get to the sweet 16 is my way of trying to take advantage of what I think are a week four And five seed and I you and miami. Yeah, so drake as you mentioned plus 420 to make it Over at fangal sports, but Kent State is plus a 520 and honestly like How surprised would you be if we saw those two teams facing each other in the second round where you're kind of locked into a You know one of them advancing would that blow you away that happened? No, it wouldn't so what when I started looking at this I was actually going down the route of just drake at plus 420 Yeah, and then I started thinking man, it wouldn't really be that crazy at all if they played can state You could just bet both of these right turn a profit no matter what if those two play each other Obviously one of the bets has to be a loser and they don't love doing that, but right Yeah, wouldn't surprise me at all if we see Kent State and drake play on In the second round, okay, if you find egg on your house Austin I if this is you know why now at least betting against IU you mentioned, you know I mean, I know you're closer Purdue, so maybe we'll talk about that at some point, too But like, you know, I'm just saying you did this to yourself. I did not encourage you to do this You brought this on yourself. Yeah, it's true. Yeah, you're right Okay, well, let's go and talk about some individual games here and start things off again We're talking about the Thursday games Let's start things off here in the South region six games there. We got plenty of types spreads I got Utah State Mizzou pretty tight West Virginia Maryland any spreads money lines or totals you like when you look at the South region games specifically Austin So I'm really excited to watch that West Virginia Maryland game first game of the day And I think it's a really strong eight nine game, but for betting value I'm looking at Utah State's minus 120 money line price against Missouri This week I wrote up a piece on four teams that could bust brackets and honestly for three of the teams You're sort of I was sort of pitching a dream that we all know is possible But also very much a long shot, but it was very easy to make a case for Utah State Advanced metrics just love them Our model has them as the 16th best team in the country Ken Palm has them 18th and Bartorovic has them 25th Missouri despite being the better seed in this game is outside the top 50 by all three of those rating systems Utah State is 14th in adjusted offense and per Ken Palm and they check pretty much every box You could want in an offense they get up plenty of threes they're ranked 50 57th nationally in three point attempt rate and they are 69th in Free throw attempt rate so they take all the threes they get to the line a lot Which is how you get to be the 14th ranked offense in the country They're also respectable 64th and adjusted defense They've lost eight games this year, but three of the eight losses were to a really good San Diego State team And of those three losses two were by a combined seven points So I like Utah State to give past Missouri and if that happens I'd actually give them a finding chance against Arizona's who they'd likely see in the second round Yeah, so Utah State again the 10 seed they are minus one and a half on the spread at minus 110 But Austin taking the money line here at minus 120 just want to look quickly at these sweet 16 odds For Utah State because you do like as you mentioned their path to potentially get there But it could be maybe you're betting the spread for them in the second round They are plus 440 to advance to the sweet 16. That's actually not terrible I know they're facing the two seed in the second round, but Relative to what we saw for Kent State and Drake. That's not terrible I think you can probably do better honestly pairing the two money lines together taking the Utah State money line in both games But plus 440 is consideration for them when it comes to that but again Austin going the money line at minus 120 for that first game And the else you like there in the South Region Austin No, not not not none. I'm really seeing like I said just as a fan I'm excited for that West Virginia Maryland games. I think those teams are pretty good But nothing betting lies. Okay, let's shift over to the West now The West four games going on on Thursday and three of the four games have spreads of less than three points So a lot of potentially close games here and he bet stand out to you in the West Austin This is my favorite region by far. I think the West is absolutely loaded Easily the toughest region by our numbers here at number fire I'm super intrigued by the Northwestern Boise State game I think it's a market versus metrics clash pretty much all the projection sites out there have Boise State It's a slight favorite The line opened as such with Boise a slim favor, which is what you'd expect But the wine line quickly on Sunday night in a span of a couple hours flipped to Northwestern being a slim Favorite and that's where it still stands as Northwestern is minus 120 on the money line in the one-and-a-half point favorite Despite what the metrics say and again almost all of them have Boise State as a better team I'm gonna jump on board with the market in the line movement and take Northwestern at minus 120 And what should be a really close and fun game? I did not pay you to say this as I'm wearing my Northwestern hat here on the stream And I thought that that was super interesting because right when it was announced to Northwestern was playing I Saw basically all you know Northwestern Twitter saying oh boy You know they were expecting Boise to be like a one-to-two point favorite to what they opened as you mentioned so I was kind of shocked honestly that this line moved towards Northwestern because didn't enter on the best string Struggling the Big Ten tournament there one game there is only one game they played Friday They had a couple rough games towards the end of the regular season two, but they do have like higher profile wins So how do you reconcile that for yourself? You know when you're looking at a team that has some wins against Purdue against Indiana, but Is Northwestern and also struggled a bit down the stretch How do you kind of reconcile those two things especially when the metrics favor Boise State in this game? Yeah, I think it's just super interesting game. I'm really excited to see how it plays out because Yeah, I Normally would side with the metrics and if the line had just stayed at one and a half minus one and a half for Boise State I I would have actually been interested in in betting Boise State to cover the spread But the line movement carries a lot of weight with me sure and those Like obviously the books are intelligent They know that everyone's gonna be checking can palm our tour rich, etc And so they're basically when I look at this line, I feel like fatal sports because daring you To bet on Boise State, right? So Usually in that situation that I want to be on the other side I want to be on the side that seems like maybe it doesn't quite make sense. Yeah, I still have not bet this game Undecided if I will do I want to get the emotional hedge in there? I can't bet Northwestern because I'd go strictly by the numbers and sports. I don't know But we'll see if I get the emotional hedge in there or not before Thursday in the West Okay, let's talk about the Midwest now It is four games there as well spreads here not quite as tight as they were in the West We talked about the Midwest Austin anything stand out to you there. I Like the over in the Auburn, Iowa eight nine game the totals set at 151.5 I was a super over friendly team, which won't surprise anybody who's seen them play The overs one out and eight of their past 12 games on Ken Palm their third and adjusted offense 167th in defense and 66 and adjusted tempo So they play really fast or pretty fast their elite on offense and kind of stink on defense So, yeah, obviously they're an over friendly team Auburn's much more well-rounded, but the overs still cashed in for their previous five games Our model and Bart Orvic both have the over Being the side to be on Bart Orvic is a lot more bullish than we are they have the total at 156 points Okay, so I'm not quite that bullish, but I do side with the over in that game Yeah, that's the Auburn, Iowa game the eight nine game 151.5 right now is the total for that game as you mentioned, Iowa plenty of offense there Auburn similar thing as well So that could be intriguing and if both Bart Orvic and number fire lean towards the over there I think that we could see some fireworks for that game So 151.5 minus 110 on the over in that one the lone region. We have not yet discussed just a couple of games down the east Austin So it's possible. We're not seeing a whole lot here oral Roberts against Duke. We got ULL against Tennessee looking at those two games anything you like for the east region Yeah, I'm taking oral Roberts to cover as a six point dog Dukes obviously playing very well right now probably the best they played all season But I think it's pretty easy to make a case for Duke being slightly overrated For one the ACC was way As we referenced earlier with Miami Dukes the only team in the Ken Palm top 33 from the ACC Duke also went seven and two in five point games So they caught some close game luck or Roberts is 56 on Ken Palm and is led by their offense, which is 23rd by Ken Palm's adjusted offense They're 34 Sorry, they're 34 and I've lost just once since November 22nd. So they obviously know how to win games I'm gonna knock Duke for being the ACC I'm gonna have to say something about or Roberts going undefeated in the what was a poor summit league, but Oral Roberts actually played a very good non-conference schedule. They played Houston, St. Mary's Utah State New Mexico and Liberty New Mexico and Liberty didn't make the dance but are both top 60 squads on Bartorovic and Liberty just beat Villanova last night in the NIT Bartorovic has a or Roberts losing by four point nine points And our model feels even more strongly about the Golden Eagles. We have him losing by two point six So I'm on Oral Roberts to cover the six and a half points. Yeah, six and a half minus 115 is the number there for Oral Roberts to cover Against Duke and it sounds like you're kind of going into this overall tournament Under the assumption that the ACC this year is not what it was previously and that's something we talked about with Ed as well He we were talking about the ACC tournament last week And I think I asked him, you know any takeaways for you from the futures market He said I think the conference sticks that was his first takeaway was that you know just overall not in on the ACC and it sounds like for you both with the Miami discussion and with this Duke discussion It sounds like you're kind of going in with the assumption the ACC might be a bit overvalued in the markets And I think that making assumptions like that and having bets that are correlated to that assumption I think that pays off for the big ten spent kind of the conference It's gotten most the talk as far as like it sucks this year But the ACC I think is in in that consideration set as well. It sounds and it sounds like that's where you're leading as well Yeah, absolutely. I think the ACC has definitely been worse than the big ten and then both are obviously down from where we usually have them, you know, I've Lived in big 10 country my whole life and typically Probably in too biased when it comes to my brackets and bets and will overvalue the big 10 Yeah, this year. I'm pretty low on them. So I'm expecting to see at least two of them in the final four, right? Yeah, as long as one of them value, I'm totally fine with it So yeah, I I'm the same way where I have been too high in the big 10 to my detriment in the past Not doing that this year very few wins for the big 10 in my bracket But hopefully one of them is Northwest and hopefully we get IU there as well That is Austin cast make sure you check him out on Twitter at Austin cast and find his work over a number You mentioned a couple articles. He has written those are up over at number five So you can check those out to finalize your bracket Austin Good luck to IU. Good luck to you as well and looking forward to talking to you once again here in the very near future Sounds good. Thank you. All righty again. Austin is on Twitter at Austin cast We're gonna back on here on the show a couple a next week talk about some Sweet elite eight games. So that'll be a lot of fun. Get awesome back on the air then to break down those Should be a good time as always now as mentioned Do you want to dive into some NASCAR here before we close up shop for today? Cuz not gonna have a whole lot of time to do that later on this week the NASCAR Cup series and the truck series and the extended series all out in Atlanta for this week. So wanted to run through quickly what my numbers are saying and Didn't get a lot of time to prepare notes on this because the the non outright markets just went up Basically half an hour before record. I believe I didn't see them before then so want to run through my numbers saying here in Atlanta for the NASCAR Cup series and looking at the outrights only a couple spots from seeing value those two spots are bubble walls at 20 to 1 Eric Jones at 30 to 1 you can find Jones 35 at the William Hill shops So shop around if you want to bet Eric Jones do that bubble wall is 20 to 1 you can also get 22 on him I believe at MGM right now. So shop around in both those guys But I would say if we're talking fandals specifically both them have very good podium odds bubble walls in the podium market Plus 650 Eric Jones. I believe it's 11 to 1. Yes. He is 11 to 1 I think both those numbers might be a tiny bit better than the outrights I've got Wallace at 14.9% to podium and I've got Eric Jones at 14.4% the reason that I have both those guys there is two fold first thing is they're on Teams that are fast enough on the mile and a half. I know Eric Jones in Las Vegas was not like phenomenal by any means But he wasn't pitiful either in that race Eric Jones in Las Vegas 15th place average running position in Fontana. He was 16th He kind of struggled to work his way through the pack in Fontana starting all the way in the back so I think that made sense and The speed for legacy doesn't seem as good as it was last year But it's also again not prohibitively bad where we should ignore him on a track where drafting is heavily involved So that's why I like Jones as for Wallace. He had good speed in Vegas He finished in the top five there had an eighth place average running position So good speed on the mile and a half and we know Wallace is one of the better pack racers in all of NASCAR so He's plus 650 to podium Jones is 11 to 1. I like both those numbers So if you're betting fandals specifically, I'd probably lean towards those two podium markets versus the outrides and those two guys You can get Jones 35 to 1 to win. I'd probably take that Wallace 22 would probably lean a bit towards that over the outright as well Versus the 20 to 1 market at Fandals So I think those are the two guys as far as outrides or podium odds where I'm seeing value as far as top 10s go I do have Eric Jones showing value there as well. So Not surprisingly back all in on Eric Jones once again this week Eric Jones finished top 10 at Fandal is plus 250 I have met 41.3 percent to finish inside the top 10. That's actually a pretty high number so Maybe it's a bit too high, but 41 percent for me versus 29 percent at plus 250 I think that gap is pretty large So I can be off on Eric Jones and still show value and I want to take that So what I would do with Eric Jones kind of layer things put a bit on the top 10 market put a little bit less on the podium market So you can profit if you finish inside the top 10, but then have a really good day Should he podium win etc. etc. I think that he is a good layering candidate in that regards Eric Jones Plus 250 first top 10 bet I want to turn towards the next one that I have showing values a bit lower on the board That's Austin Dillon Not only sure why but Austin Dillon's plus 360 to finish inside the top 10 at Fandal Sportsbook We saw the speed from the RCR cars at Daytona He and Kyle Bush started the final restart or second to last restart on the front row together and Dillon was a legit threat to win That race he won in Daytona last year he's a two-time Daytona winner and I think that RCR will have enough speed on this track type to be very good. So I have Dillon at 25.3% to finish inside the top 10 his implied odds 21.7% of plus 360 big enough gap for me. So Good enough speed very good pack racer Dillon checks enough boxes where I'm fine going there Looking briefly at other spots where I'm showing value right now in the top 10 market. I Do show value and tie Gibbs. He's six to one to finish inside the top 10 I think it's fair to be skeptical of the talent on Gibbs not in terms of overall talent. He's very talented, but Can he be a good pack racer in the cup series immediately? I don't know but Atlanta is going to be more of a speed-centric track than Daytona was and we saw Gibbs win the Exinity series race in this track last year He may win the overtime it ran a bit late and he said that he missed a date because of the race going long, but hey, he won the race So probably a fair trade-off for him Gibbs at six to one. I think is very intriguing. I've got my 22.5% I've been a little bit too high and Gibbs so far this year versus the markets his implied odds though 14.3% so similar to Jones a lot of wiggle room to be off on him and still show value so I think that's fine and I'm okay going there so Tie Gibbs six to one finish inside the top 10. I do like that. I have not decided whether to bet these other ones I do want to list other spots where I'm showing value right now though. Just in case so Jones a big one then Dylan then Gibbs Other spots where I see a bit of value Justin Haley plus 340 Very good pack racer. I Have a group bet on him and I have a group bet on him in the Exinity series race this week as well Not a ton of value 25.1% for me versus 22.7% implied Pretty small gap Ryan praise plus 480. I have a 21.2% versus 17.2% implied decent gap Not sure if I'll get there, but it is a decent gap Michael McDowell has not had good speed on the mile and a half's or the non drafting tracks this year Bit worrisome. I have an 18% to finish top 10 versus 16.7% implied Might go there. I've got speed or some value on Josh Berry at 5 to 1 not a big fan of him in terms of his drafting skill But again, Hender cars will be fast this weekend. That does matter more in Atlanta than it does in Daytona And then other one that I see here is Cori La Joy who almost won Atlanta last year I have met 20% to finish top 10 versus 16.7% implied and then Harrison Burton 2 at plus 650 So a lot of guys in the the 6 to the the 3 to 6 range in terms of finishing top 10 I'm seeing value on I think if I had to guess right now, I will take Jones. I will take Dylan I will likely take Gibbs If I had to pick someone else, I'm probably gonna go towards honestly I would lean towards McDowell at 5 to 1 just because I trust the pack racing acumen He won at Daytona a couple years ago The speed is okay enough for me to be there So I would say likely McDowell the fourth guy would go towards so I check out the podium odds for Eric Jones Check out the podium odds for bubble walls But then also top 10 odds for Eric Jones plus 250 tie Gibbs 6 to 1 Austin Dylan plus 360 and then likely McDowell 5 to 1 other spot I am turning towards for this week in Atlanta That is all that we have here for today on the show though want to give a big Thank you to Austin cast for swinging by breaking down his thoughts on the Thursday games Find him on Twitter at Austin cast find his work at number fire comm reminder. We are back again later on today We'll talk to Ben Steven's the sports grid big 10 then to get his read on the Friday games across the NCAA men's tournament Let you know where he is seeing value there to get that as it is posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also check us out over on the fandal YouTube page Where these shows go up each and every weekday No show tomorrow on Thursday because the two for today then back on Friday top NFL free agency with Ryan Williams We'll talk to you all once again in the very near future should be a fun couple of days in sports This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network