 What's up everybody welcome into the next Pats podcast. I'm Phil Perry coming at you from radio row at Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas We're gonna have so much content for you this week when it comes to Finding out what is next for this Patriots franchise free agency the draft on the coaching staff and in the front office And today we are going to focus on the draft Specifically with Eric eager friend of the podcast Eric eager VP of research and development at Sumer Sports where they are blending data And football Thomas Demitroff is the CEO there former general manager of the Atlanta Falcons College scouting director for your New England Patriots and Eric is tremendous when it comes to the various options That the Patriots have we're gonna be looking at the two teams involved in this Super Bowl How they built up their rosters to get to the game that everybody is trying to get to Patriots included where does the quarterback come in do you build up the roster first add the quarterback later or vice versa? I think you're gonna find Eric's answer interesting because when you think of data people and Eric is a data person You think of the value of the quarterback position and all that you might be missing if you pass on a quarterback at number three overall But in our conversation he suggests trading down for New England Specifically he's gonna tell you why I want you to come at this conversation with an open mind Here it is right now Eric eager from Sumer Sports Very happy now to have with us Eric eager VP of research and development at Sumer Sports friend of the next Pats podcast We've had you on before Eric. Thanks for being back with us. Hey, thanks for having me I want to ask you about the two teams in this week's game the Niners and the Chiefs because from a Patriots perspective We're looking at a roster that needs a complete overhaul And so the question is how do you approach the rebuild? Do you go after for instance the Chiefs model where you try to build up the roster eventually find the Great quarterback move heaven and earth to make sure you get him Or do you go with the Niners model which is again build up the roster? But to really an incredible degree to the point where you could drop a seventh round pick in it and have him perform The way Brock Purdy has performed. What do you think is the more repeatable model? I think it just depends upon what your goals are because they both kind of did the same thing in 2013 Andy Reed took over a 2-in-14 team with Romeo Cornell and and Scott Piolli of you know former Patriots executive And they went the two second round picks for Alex Smith They kind of built the roster that way there weren't quarterbacks in that draft So that was kind of out of necessity and then they kind of just waited right Alex Smith was good enough to get them to You know kind of the two or three seed every single year, but every single playoff was kind of disappointing They were not nearly as good as the San Francisco team kind of in the premium position spots But they weren't also They were waiting and then eventually they had the courage of conviction to get Patrick Mahomes and the rest is history I think that San Francisco when they started over it was in the Mahomes draft Everybody gives the Bears a lot of flak But it really that Niners team passed on Mahomes and went kind of in the conservative route with the quarterback position But the funny part about San Francisco is because of the way they're constructed Every single year they're losing 10 games or in the conference championship So you look at their roster and it's Nick Beaus is the second overall pick Eric Armstead the top pick And so they're they're kind of the Kansas City Chiefs have three top 20 picks on their whole roster And two of them don't play Blaine Gabbard and Kaderis Tony. We only other ones Patrick Mahomes The Niners kind of go after these blue chip players. So Which one's better? I think having the quarterback is maybe more resilient. You look at the Niners I think the bill is going to become due but the hard part is is people are so It's so hard to find a quarterback of Patrick Holmes caliber that I think if I were prescribing a solution to the Patriots I'd probably prescribe the Niners one. So it's interesting now. They have the third pick then What does that mean you would do with that pick? Do you do you take the quarterback? No questions asked because it does look like a three quarterback draft quote-unquote or Do you move down stockpile assets try to build up the roster and drop the quarterback in later? I think you if I were in charge I'd trade down just because you know Jaden Daniels is phenomenal as far as a prospect But there are some concerns, you know pressure to sack ratio like sack avoidance is the number one You look at Patrick Mahomes down year statistically He averaged three yards fewer per attempt then Brock Purdy this year But he was second in the NFL in sack avoidance to Josh Allen Josh Allen be second in MVP voting this year And so Jaden Daniels he took a sack on 20% of pressures this year 30% last year for LSU And that's something that carries and so when you think about the Patriots having to rebuild the offensive line Having to rebuild the receiving core when you have a quarterback that struggles with pressure struggles when a when the wide receivers aren't open And that's going to be hard to build an offense around we saw in Washington with Sam Howell That's another guy with a high pressure to sack ratio for young quarterbacks. It's just not conducive to success So unless they can go up and get Williams go up and get May I just don't think that it's a good gamble for them And so I think moving back and you know, you could end up with a player like bonix You can end up with a player like Michael Penix Michael Penix by the way under 10% of his pressures as a college quarterback turned into sacks So that's a guy with quick processing And could do that even in an offense where you're kind of building up the line or something like that So I would prescribe a trade a trade back because there are going to be a lot of teams in it down You're offensively in the NFL. They're going to be desperate for a quarterback It's a fascinating stat that you have there on Daniels because he obviously is an incredible athlete Yep, and he is typically it looks like a scramble to run player not a scramble to throw player Which might speak to what you're saying even if he does scramble to throw some of those plays might result in sacks It might result in the negative plays that we're talking about is Drake may at all similar Does he have is there a difference in his game that might make him more attractive to the page? So he and Williams are both kind of in that 15 to 20 ratio. So a little bit lower It's still concerned like I'd rather it be kind of in that 10 to 15 or 5 to 10 percent range Both of those guys are a little bit better. I think both the guys when you think about like arm talent or better So it's all about when you think about quarterbacks It's all about looking at that metric tree and then looking at the stability of them Like, you know deep passing is a great trait to have it doesn't translate all that well from college to pro But you'd like to have it Drake may has it Caleb Williams has it sack avoidance is an incredibly stable statistic You'd like to have it right? So I think that you know Jaden Daniels is a guy who has a lot of those traits But in some of the ones that are more sticky. He's a little bit weaker. That's interesting. So Might be a godsend for the Patriots of Drake may gets past the second pick because it does sound as though Or there are NFL teams that value Jaden Daniels ahead of Drake may it sounds like there's a little bit of a split there Yeah, and I think the athleticism is the big thing but you just you described it perfectly in the NFL those things close up really quickly and We even saw this with Lamar Jackson who I hate to talk disparaging because he's gonna win the MVP But you even saw it in the conference championship game when he broke free Four or five years into his career He's not as explosive as he once was and when you're buying into that the otherworldly athleticism It all it's a for a flicker of time And and so even as he develops as a pastor those those ten You know tangential things go away and you're gonna really want to have a guy who you know Has those other schools in addition to the athleticism and I think teams are a little Over-indexing on that peer running ability for quarterbacks right now. Let's play the game then say they trade down That's the plan that you prescribe Are the hit rates from what you have seen what you've observed are the hit rates that much better At a different position say they end up taking a tackle at eight versus a quarterback at three Are they much more likely to get a great tackle at that spot than they are a great quarterback at three overall? it's Not really because of the payoff at quarterback like when you hit on a quarterback They end up being about four times more valuable so as far as like expected value It's better to go for quarterback for me though It's can you look at the this roster and say this guy's gonna be successful And it's just rare when you like Andrew luck in in Indianapolis was a guy that was overcoming a lot of stuff I mean Patrick Mahomes the guy that's playing quarterback in this game that you know Eric Fisher was a number one pick Mitchell Schwartz was a great You know a Hall of Fame caliber tackle Tyree kill Travis Kelsey. He's great, but he wasn't a he was not one man Right, it was it was a lot of stuff this Patriots team, especially offensively. They need wide receivers. They need offensive line They need tight ends. They need a great playcaller And I just I worry about the third best quarterback in this draft being able to be successful in that system whereas I see a tackle being kind of that guy where You know all these teams that they if you allow these teams to go and take these five quarterbacks in this draft They're not gonna take one next year and you might be in a situation a la Bella check when he was starting out Remember Bella check with the reason he ran the fourth the three four was no one wanted Ted Washington No one wanted the nose like you next year these teams there may be fewer quarterbacks But they're also gonna be fewer teams who prize quarterbacks because they're all gonna take them this year And so I think that that might be the benefit where you might get the best quarterback next year Whereas you're gonna you're gonna have to settle for the third best this right might have to play the long game Yeah, I want to see if I can get you on board with a with a an approach that I've been kicking around be workshop in this Eric Okay Now as a media person I of course would love it if the local team took a quarterback because it just uses excitement and storylines into our market So that's number one, but say they don't love one of these quarterbacks who could fall to them at three What would you call a plan that would call for the Patriots trading a third round pick? For Justin Fields who we know only has one year left on his contract right now And then going with some of these other positions first and second round to try to build up the roster and just at the same time Seeing if there's still any value there and a former first-round pick in fields Yeah, you'd have to do it fairly quickly because the fifth-year option like you'd have to make a decision on him Right because the fifth-year option the only hard part is that fields, you know in Chicago The positivity about fields is almost entirely because of this lack of support and in New England He's gonna have a similar issue and so that's like my only my only hesitation But he's been able to make something out of nothing a lot so that could be a good thing Yeah, I don't hate it and a third round pick I think his market is gonna be more of a second and I don't know if the bears like I think the bears are gonna take Williams or May and I think they're gonna keep fields for The Sam Bradford type of trade, you know You remember in 2016 the Eagles traded up to two took wends held on to Bradford And then when Teddy Bridgewater tore out his knee you got a first-round pick for Bradford You think about this year the number of teams that at the trade deadline needed quarterback play I think that that's gonna ultimately be when when Ryan polls is like do I trade? You know fields for a second or a third right now I think he's gonna say well Why don't I keep the guy here because inevitably Aaron Rodgers might get hurt or something like that might happen And I'm got a team that's desperate You know to keep their job and it's gonna want to bring a guy in and by then you can get a first-rounder for him When we talk about these draft picks at quarterback this year is Anything that you have looked at Perton it when it comes to how these guys might perform in bad weather because the options We think the Patriots will have would be Drake may Jane Daniels Maybe some of the second-round quarterbacks that are in the mix as well or later first-round guys Is anyone in that mix a bad weather quarterback because we know that's when the Patriots You would think play their most important games is December January Yeah, we don't have anything in measurements But like I do think one of the biggest L's the analytics community took was Josh Allen when you looked at his college data, you know, we we were good enough at adjusting for that Right the weather, you know, you can actually tie to it wind and all that stuff But the traits right you look at Joe Burrow who in my opinion is a phenomenal quarterback I think he's always in my mind gonna be a little bit of a step below Herbert Allen Mahomes because when he's injured, he's just a little worse and so when I look at quarterbacks sometimes now I look at the physical traits Matter in overcoming weather and injuries and I think you know Williams has a lot of great. He's a rubbery arm or all this is he's under six feet I mean he's gonna come in under six feet. I think there there's some things, you know to that I think Daniels is kind of thin, right? He kind of reminds me from a build standpoint of Jim McMahon who was a real it was a winner But he never played 16 games to the Bears. He never played in that. You know, he never was able to After that Super Bowl win start a whole season I look at Drake may from a from a size perspective. You saw him on the side of that basketball game in UNC I think size to me is the biggest thing for injuries, but also weather and that's why Josh Allen I know the bills haven't won the ultimate game yet But it's why the bills are in it every single year and are resilient to all the perturbations in football Which is weather which is injuries the guy never missed the game You never see that big of a drop in his play It's because he has that physical gift and that's you know, it takes it back to the old-school scouting where you know You do really want to have that big physical quarterback because when the injuries come inevitably when the weather is bad You need a guy that's gonna be able to rip a ball through, you know, that tough weather and and within injuries to his body It's a fascinating answer that you give because you're right It does marry old-school football philosophy with the data You have a wider margin for error if you're bigger stronger You can work through a thumb injury or a calf injury or you can cut it through a 25 mile mile an hour wind Yeah, Justin Herbert played all of the 2022 season with broken ribs and no and you know It was more legitimate than everybody was saying and now granted They were not the best team in the league But he got them to 10 and 7 and a playoff berth playing through that because he's just more physically gifted now He didn't play the greatest But I guarantee you some of these less physically gifted quarterbacks who are accurate and all this Joe burrow is probably not playing as well As Herbert with the same injury because he's just simply not as big fast and strong as Justin is last question I wanted to ask you Eric because you are doing great work at Sumer now with Thomas to mitraff We're about to talk to for the Patriots talk podcast and providing us in the media fans Data that is helping us understand the game a little bit better You were formerly of pro football focus There are two coaches formerly of pro football focus that are very much in the public eye now Bobby slow It's getting head coaching interviews after one great year as offensive coordinator He spent time at PFF Zach Robinson former Patriots Seventh round draft big Zach Robinson also spent time at PFF now an offensive coordinator himself What do what does the success that these guys are having say about how the game? Maybe owners even specifically are embracing data and its usage not just in the front office, but on the sidelines too Yeah, I also it to me It's also a great point about where analytics really were the point where analytics really wants to be a part of football Like I think PFF did a great job of looking Bobby slow because Bob slow ex son, right? the former you know, he was a defensive coordinator in the NFL Packers and PFF like built up all this data, but knew they needed some credibility No, Bobby slow it comes in and builds out the grading system and gives a credibility and now You know part of being a great coach and part of being a great analyst and a great GM is having a process in place and being able to grade players and when the you have the ups and downs when you have to start case Keenum because You know CD Strat is hurt being able to deal with those ups and downs That's to me when I see slow like I see that Zach Robinson, you know Yeah, I spent more time working with him because that our paths intersected more. It's just a brilliant player You know and and one of the things was so great was he never really he never played a snap in the NFL He was around guys like Sean Hill. He's around guys like Stafford. He was he took so many notes And and took in so many things a humble guy, you know But play one game of flag football to me realized Oh my god This guy was truly talented and you're like and you think about a guy truly talented But knows the difference between him and some of the guys he's analyzing the the guy between him and the guy He's gonna be coaching I was always so impressed with how intelligent Zach was and being able to incorporate the data But understand the football what to what to really latch on to what kind of questions I always judge football people by the kind of questions They ask me and and Zach always had the best questions And I think that that really bodes well for him in Atlanta because you know I think that the big reason Atlanta struggled this year was I thought Arthur Smith had all Arthur Smith had a lot more answers than he had questions And I think that sometimes in football The the the wisdom is in the questions and not the answers. It's really interesting boy It'll be fascinating to see if the Patriots Eric embrace Analytics a little bit more than they have now that Bill Belichick has moved on We'll have to wait and see on that Eric eager sumer sports Thank you so much for being with us making a smarter man. Hey, thanks for having me Great stuff there from Eric and I love talking about all the different scenarios that we could piece together The most recent mock draft that we built for NBC Sports Boston comm does include a trade down It includes a trade of a third round pick for Justin Fields because the Patriots and we're not sure where they are on this quarterback Class just yet, but there is the potential for them to look at this class Especially the top three guys Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels Drake may and say Not the right time for us to invest in one of these guys or maybe they look at each individual player's skill set and say I Know the rest of the world thinks that these guys have franchise quarterback potential, but we're not necessarily Believers if that happens then maybe something like a trade for fields and then a trade down where you add a tackle And then you've got draft capital to be able to add a receiver later or vice versa Maybe that's the way to go But I think having this conversation with Eric early in the process and understand how he's coming at it from an analytical Perspective is really really valuable to us We are of course gonna have valuable conversations for you all week long here on radio row on next pass on the Patriots talk Podcast as well You can find our entire conversation with Thomas Demitroff again CEO sumer sports with Tom Curran and myself over on Patriots talk Very very soon if it's not live already, so keep an eye out for that as well. We've been coming at you From radio row Just about every day early edition Boston sports tonight We'll be making appearances on the radio 98 5 the sports hub so like in Bertrand Felger and Maz Keep it locked right here on next patch. We'll have all the info your heart desires