 Hey everybody what's going on? I am Greg Sussman joined today by Jim Sanos of FanDuel as we give you one final giraffe prep For the first round of the NFL Draft. What's happening Jim? I am pumped up Greg I am excited to watch this NFL Draft go down. It sounds like it'll be pretty unpredictable Which is pretty fun as we're trying to watch things play out So I am excited a lot of fantasy implications here a lot of betting implications since there's so many markets being offered too So I'm jacked up for this draft and just something to distract us for a bit But it should be a really good distraction at that. How are you doing? I'm doing well man I'm just as excited for the draft and of course all the rumors Leaking out now the latest one on Monday being that Dave Gettelman and the Giants have looked into Justin Herbert at 4 And hey, we all make fun of Gettelman for never trading down with this screams like hey You want Justin Herbert? You better trade off in front of the Dolphins The question is are the Dolphins going to draft Justin Herbert because this entire draft season they have been Attached just to attack a lot and all of a sudden over the last week. You've heard Herbert's names. The question becomes Which quarterback will a dolphin's draft? You know, it's gonna be one of them at some point But will it be to a or will it be Herbert or will one of them be gone by the time the dolphins get up? What say you here Jim? Yeah, I think the big question we have about this draft Is how much of this talk around to a tongue of I loa has been smoke screen versus being legitimate talk? It very well could be a legitimate However, the dolphins have a lot of incentive to lie about their interest around to a tongue of I loa because if they're trying to trade Up with the Lions at number three and they say hey, we don't care if we get to or Herbert That's gonna lower the asking cost because it lowers the demand Which means they can trade less to get up to number three to get to a tongue of I loa So that's one aspect of the other aspect is if the chargers have interest into a tongue of I loa The dolphin should be saying hey, we don't care take it We want Herbert and that means that the chargers could stay put at six And if the chargers are content to stay put at six That means they're not competing with the dolphins trade up to three to get to a So there are a lot of reasons why the dolphin should be putting out there that they don't really care about to a tongue of I loa But I think that this is interesting because we've been talking so much throughout this draft process about how there's less information out there That will help us dictate and decide who is going to go where but when we hear about teams being out onto a tongue of I loa We just accept it because we assume that that's true But every year we get these smoke strings. We get these distractions We get this disinformation to try to help lower the costs around certain assets and the dolphins I don't think anybody else in this draft has more incentive to lie Than the Miami dolphins about what they want to do with pic number five That's it relates to both the Detroit and los angeles So I think I'm going to stick with the evaluation here and to a tongue of I loa to me is the much better prospect from a quarterback perspective So I think to a gills before justin herbert. It's minus 108 right now at vandal sportsbook I have not seen it up until this point where herbert has bigger juice on him But he does right now So I'm going to buy loa to a tongue of I loa stick with what we thought initially that he would be going to Miami and be the the number two quarterback off the board I think that happens and we'll see how things play out Thursday night But I think I'm going to write up the evaluation here and say that what we've heard about heard about to us so far Is all just a smoke screen for months and months and months All we heard about was nfl team was tanking for toa and then joe borough happened So joe borough is your no doubt number one overall pick But the team that wanted to of the most was always the dolphins And then he essentially falls into their laps and now everyone's talking about justin herbert Doesn't really add up That's why I think toa going before justin herbert and going to the dolphins Well, that makes all the more sense Let's talk about the team that has a number four overall pick and that is the new york giants I mentioned them a little bit earlier in regards to doing some research on justin herbert But it's commonly thought that they're going to draft one of the offensive linemen Whenever they do draft the gentlemen does trade down for the first time Well, he's probably saying hey, I'll draft one of the four offensive linemen The question becomes which one now tristan werves has been the one that's been most popularly mocked them Although in recent days that hasn't been the case again. It is smoke screen season But you're still buying here jim that tristan werves is the guy How come it's all because the number here greg because I think that it's kind of down to two guys right now Based on what we've read about dav gederman is that he wants either jedrick wills or tristan werves And I think that if you made if you gave me even odds I might go jedrick wills because the super plugged in people seem to be indicating that that dav gederman wants jedrick wills And we know generally where dav gederman is going to go It's leaked out pretty often the past where he's going. We know what they want So it's probably going to be jedrick will but we're not getting them even odds here at vandal sports big because jedrick wills Is plus 110 to be their guy whereas tristan werves is plus 300 and I think that's really intriguing What my recommendation here would be is look around at various books See what you can get on jedrick wills if you can get him at a longer number than plus 110 I think that he would be my preferred option But at vandal sports book they have really been aggressive in reacting to what's been out there about jedrick wills It's plus tristan werves down to plus 300 werves has amazing athleticism like we talked a lot about mackay beckton's testing profile but But tristan werves is actually better at the combine than mackay beckton's super well rounded super athletic Fits with the giants want because he can be a day one starter at right tackle Or you can move on to left tackle as well So I think that tristan werves is a prospect. I want to bet on in general when he's three to one to go to the giants I think that's pretty intriguing So again, look around see what various books have on jedrick wills If you can get him at a pretty good number that's not as reactive to what we've seen recently buying the jedrick wills But based on the numbers that vandal sports back I think the number on tristan werves is just a little bit too long Three to one really good odds for a guy who I think is kind of a 50-50 proposition now Who do you think him and jedrick wills? This was funny because just like we linked to it at the dolphins for months I've linked tristan werves to the giants for months and of course because of the covid virus All of a sudden jedrick wills makes the most sense because of the giants coaching staff who they have Hired from alabama and the nicks haven't ties of course with joe judge And that's why wills has seemingly moved up the board But you don't want to discount andrew thomas or mackay beckton for that reason But tristan werves for a long time was that guy and to get him at three to one It's a good bet. I think wills is going to be the pick but tristan werves is a fine selection Let's move on a little bit further down. Let's go to the arizona cardinals Who have also been popularly mocked a offensive lineman? But you don't necessarily think jim that that's the direction they're going to go in how come Yeah, I think the key here for me is just assuming that you don't know everything and with the with the cardinals I've always agreed. I've always thought they'd be taking an offensive one And I thought werves would be a great fit for them because They need a right tackle pretty badly to protect kyler murray, but The offensive line last year wasn't all that bad under cliff kingsbury scheme And that's a good thing and I think you're kind of just getting insane juice here at plus 225 to draft any defensive player It's especially true when you look at the way things could play out for them at number eight because There is a chance that isaias Simmons could be on the board there for them there at number eight. That's intriguing We've all seen player Analysts who are closely to cliff kingsbury saying they like derrick brown. That's another defensive player Maybe jeffrey okuto wants to slip in a little bit. There are three Premium defensive players who could in theory be on the board here for the arizona cardinals at pick number eight If they get that having already addressed wide receiver with the andre hopkins I would think they'd be inclined to go with a defensive player In fact, peter king today on nbc sport said he actually had a defensive player mocked to arizona in derrick brown. So I think when you have guys Like sinons and like brown who couldn't theory be available pick number eight and the cardinals don't have You know just one need they've got multiple needs. They could address in this draft I think it's a pretty good pretty good odds. They wind up taking a defensive player So plus 225 and i'm taking any defensive player gives you a lot of flexibility But also just accounts to the fact that we don't actually know as much as we think we do So I'm going to take this one here plus 225 a really good number that I want to take advantage of with this cardinals first pick I think it's the number that is most interesting here for the cardinals who draft a defensive player Um, yeah offense lineman. It is possible But the more you look at how the draft may shake out and you place in justin herner You place into a tug of mulloa You're like, hmm Although the offensive lineman the best players on the board very well Maybe is a simmons or derrick brown two guys that in other drafts depending on Needs they may have gone in the top five is a simmons may believe it should still be the giants pick at number four Possibility of them being there at eight. Well, it's worth betting on that's what jim is recommending that you do We talk a lot about these offensive linemen christen werfs Tedrick wills andrew thomas mccibeckton What order they're going to go in who's going to take them? That's the question a lot of people have right now The jets will they're looking their shops right outside the top ten that one of these guys fall to them and the browns Well, they're right around this mark as well but andrew thomas is the name that some believe is the Best offensive lineman in this draft the one that can start the quickest of any of the offensive linemen in this draft But the ceiling will it may be the lowest as well You believe andrew thomas very well could be a top ten selection. Where do you see him fitting? Yeah, this kind of goes along the same thing we just discussed with the Arizona cardinals We should assume we know less than we think we do and right now of those top four offensive linemen The guy with the longest odds to go in the top 10 is andrew thomas at plus 120 and just kind of from a numbers perspective There are a lot of teams drafting the top 10 that could need to tackle You know the giants need to tackle the dolphins if they decide to not go quarterback need to tackle The chargers need to tackle if they decide to not go quarterback cardinals jaguars browns All those teams are drafting in the top 10 So basically what you need out of andrew thomas is to just be One of the top three or so offensive tackles off the board. I think for plus 120 Again, assuming that we know less than we think we do that's a pretty intriguing proposition It's especially true because andrew thomas among those top four guys Played more snaps at left tackle than anybody else the chargers had a glaring need at left tackle If they want to put a guy in there right away. I think that andrew thomas Slots in pretty well same thing for the cleveland browns who have right tackle set They just need a left tackle and that is andrew thomas the guy with the largest sample size at left tackle in this draft Bob again of the athletic also has been pulling personnel evaluators about their favorite players in each position and When he did that for these offensive tackles It was actually andrew thomas who was the guy they put at the top of their list most often so I don't think that andrew thomas would be the first tackle off the board because again I think that's down to wills or worse depending on whom the giants prefer but We don't need to be first We need to be within those top three or so tackles and I think that there are pretty good odds that happening Especially at plus 120 thomas seems to be a pretty safe pick who can start at left tackle on day one I think teens will value that quite a bit especially with the specific teens picking the top 10 So the odds of thomas going within those top 10 picks to me better than plus 120 He doesn't have to be first He just has to go inside the top 10 and as you mentioned Bob again of the athletic As he pulled all these scouts and general managers They said that andrew thomas is the best offensive lineman on the board Certainly the most nfl ready that could step in at left tackle immediately Enough teams are always desperate for a left tackle The question is if the dolphins if they draft too it's like if I love they really need a right tackle So I don't know we'll see with andrew thomas there Uh, but andrew thomas definitely has a shot and as the the lowest of all these guys at plus 120 I think it's worth taking a shot here on draft day Let's move on jim and let's get to the wide receivers where we've talked a lot about cd lamb and Henry rugs and of course jerry Judy the question is where do these guys will go much like the offensive lineman The wide receivers are kind of all mashed together here without a clear cut number one choice But you're betting on jerry judy one way or another. Yeah, unfortunately, it's the negative side here for jerry judy I think that'll go after pick number 12 because we're getting plus 120 juice on this and that's pretty intriguing because I think the 12 is intentional on fan dual sports books part because that's where the oakland raiders are selected So basically the question is will jerry judy go to the oakland raiders because I think the jets have to go offensive line And so you're kind of seeing who's going to slot into the raiders and peter king has mentioned to release his mock draft this morning He's a pretty plugged in guy A lot of connections around the league and he said that mike mayok was in love with cd lamb And I think we could see other teams also in love with cd lamb or potentially in love with the speed of Henry rugs The third that could allow judy to slip a bit I'm not saying slip a lot He could very well go to pick number 13 to the 49ers and I would not be shocked at all If that were to happen, but With the with the total here being a 12 and a half and plus 120 on the over I just think it's an advantageous number So I want to lock in here on jerry judy I think he is a very talented prospect But I just think again kind of similar to the line of thinking with andrew thomas It's a numbers game And I think that the numbers don't line up for a good number of wide receivers to go Within those first 12 picks and I think that when you look at the specific players who could go there I think it lends itself to the over here on jerry judy. Again, I think that there are good odds He goes right at number 13. It's not expecting to fall far beyond 12 but I do think that with plus 120 on the over here jerry judy could slip just a bit and get us some good juice on this number Just because the wide receivers don't really line up inside that top 11 It makes that number 12 pick for the oaken raiders all that more interesting But the question is will jerry judy be the guy the odds are Probably not we'll see if peter king is right. We'll see if the wider sears fall a little bit We don't even want to fall much Specifically we only want to fall in this bet and that's jerry judy over pick 12 One final topic to get to and that's the running backs here jam We talked last week about jonathan taylor and where he should go and If it'll be one of the first running backs off the board But we didn't necessarily describe what round that would be in and if you're going to have the running back It does seem like it's going to be at the end of the first round at best You're taking the opportunity that there's not going to be any running backs drafted in the first round at all So essentially you're buying chiefs not drafting running back. I'm also buying the chiefs potentially not drafting at all in the first round I think that that's pretty intriguing here because you're getting plus 150 on the under at a half And the chiefs are picking at number 32 the chief's big issue in this draft is they don't have a lot of picks They have five total draft picks in this draft And I think that you're looking at these teams That want to trade up to get a quarterback and get that fifth year option I think that's the seattle seahawks and the can city chiefs are two prime spots where teams could trade up Which are two of the teams with the potential biggest need at running back at the end of the first round It's the seahawks and the chiefs because the seahawks have injuries to rachat penny and chris karson They've been linked to some running backs the dolphins have been linked to some running backs and the chiefs So those are the three teams But I think the seahawks and chiefs probably trading out to give other teams wax at positions That need that that fifth year option running back is not one of those positions where you need that fifth year option So think of teams are trading up. It will not be to get a running back It'll be to get a different position and that could allow these seahawks and the chiefs to address that need Later on in the draft as far as the dolphins go to pick 26 They have been linked to deandre swifts quite a bit. I think that that is certainly A risk here if you want to bet the under at a half of a running back However, the dolphins seem to be a pretty analytically run Organization and they're probably not going to go with a running back if that winds up actually being the case They also could address running back early in the second round where they have a couple of picks there as well So I kind of think it's just a numbers game where there aren't a lot of teams that need running backs Now those teams that do need running backs They can either a Address it early in the second round or be Trade out of that first round pick and get it later on. So I like deandre swift and jonathan taylor I think they're both really interesting, but I think given the way things shake out here I would not be shocked to see those teams that could be entertaining the the The idea of drafting those guys trading back into the second round Getting them there in allowing this under hit at plus 150 plus 150 is a really good number Because there's no guarantee by any means that swift or taylor or any other running back goes in the first round The chiefs like I said the most obvious target, but they need more picks just like with The 49ers and the raiders these teams need more picks as well when it comes to the wide receivers The dolphins as an analytical team. They're really spending a first round draft pick on a running back They've traded all their good running backs damien williams and kenny and drake They don't really think the position matters and that means they're not taking them in the first round I really like this bet at plus 150 That's gonna do it for us here on the fan dual hurry up jim. It has been a blast talking to draft with you It's showtime man. Yeah, finally we get to actually see how things play out Finally get to know the answers about tua the answer about all these wide receivers a lot of fantasy implications Which I am sure will break down in the coming weeks here on the hurry up I am looking forward to that greg and looking forward to talking to you again soon. Enjoy the draft Absolutely you as well final question. Is there a Prop over on the fan dual sports book about get them in having a technological failure on thursday It is minus 400 get it while it's hot because you're not going to get that number for long So if you want to get it hammer it right now, greg just making sure jim for jim saunas I am greg salisman. Enjoy the draft everybody. We'll see you next time right here on the fan dual hurry up Stay safe everybody