 So we were of course hoping for a v-shaped recovery. Unfortunately, no, it looks more like W, but we have to avoid this. Of course, we're seeing other parts of the world where growth is back. But we need to make sure that the growth is inclusive, sustainable, and creating the necessary jobs. Sometimes you can think when you look at the market that the recovery is more like K-shaped. Market is going up and the amount of jobs are going down. We're going to approve that wrong, and we will also here look at carving out the path for job full recovery. We have the best panel to discuss this. We have Ray Deleu, founder and co-chairman of Bridgewater, the largest company in the world when it comes to hedge fund. He's also a thought leader, written many very crucial books. We have Rania Almashat, minister of development from Egypt, a country with more than 60% of the population under the age of 30 years. And we have Alan Schupp, the CEO of Unilever, a company that employ a lot of people and have weathered the crisis pretty well. Let me start with you, Ray. Good morning in the U.S. Of course, we're following the U.S. very closely these days. But we know that you're also someone that is an expert at looking into the crystal ball and knowing what is happening in the future. Who do you think the recovery will look and how can we secure that the recovery also will create jobs? Ray, good morning. As far as looking into the crystal ball goes, there's a saying that I in the market always think about. He who lives by the crystal ball is destined to eat ground glass. So I'm not sure that my outlook will be very insightful. But the way I look at the situation is there are three major forces that are at work and have been germinating for a long time that have now reached a point that is a critical point, very similar to the 1930 to 45 period. And they will be with us for a number of years. And then the virus and its economic effects came along as a stress test. But let me just touch on those. The first is what is going on with money and credit. There's a long-term debt cycle, and there's so far that central banks can put interest rates, push interest rates down. And when they hit zero percent, then they have to print money. And so what we're seeing now and have seen for quite a while is the creation of a lot of debt, particularly by central governments that is being monetized by the central banks to get the money to those who need it. And that has an implication for the value of money. It has an implication for the dollar particularly. And it has to be looked at around the world. Who gets what money and credit is important? Which countries? Which people? So that's the first. The second is the gap in wealth, the gap in job opportunities, which is producing the political gap that is causing a left-right conflict and an ideological conflict that is being manifest all over the world, a lot of conflict. And that's particularly true in the United States and is reflected in the presidential election. That has big implications for how that money will flow. So jobs, it'll have big implications for jobs, it'll have big implications for markets, tax policies and the like. And the third big force is the rising of a great power to challenge an existing great power. Since 1945, we've been in a U.S. dominated monetary and world order. But with the rise of China to compete with the United States in important ways, there are five important ways that they're competing. There is a trade war, as we call it, a technology war, a geopolitical war, a bit of a capital war. And then there is also in the background, and we hope doesn't happen, but there are issues pertaining to a military war. So the interaction of those three things, like in the 1930s, I think will be the driving force. You layer over that technology and how technology is competing with humans. The uniqueness of a human is being diminished because of our technological developments. And that also will affect jobs. So I think that when you then have the stress test come along and you have a decrease in incomes and look at the financial situation, that is what we're seeing here today. So how those will be handled, I think will be the driving influence of jobs, whether we have a cohesive, harmonious world, or whether we have a world of great conflict. How do you see the post-COVID world? When you think unemployment will be back at that level in the US, will it be back at that level? And how are technologies working here? Because some people think that the technologies also will create additional jobs, so there will be a net plus, and some think there will be a net minus. I think you're going to see money much more directed by governments and printed. And that will have two implications. It will have an implication of the value of money. You're seeing now, for example, on zero interest rates, you're seeing money leave bonds, and you're seeing a situation that could be detrimental to the dollar's role as a reserve currency. Anyway, I think we're going to see much more government directed. I think after the election, whoever gets in, there will be a lot of arguing about who pays the bill and how much money should be spent on what. So I think that brings us into the world of politics. And we deal with the question of, can there be the respect for the rules and the working those things out to direct the money and credit? And that will affect jobs more than anything. For example, today, if you don't pass a stimulus program, it'll change the entire complexion of how money flows and how credit flows. That's in the United States. Analogous version is true in Europe and analogous for use in Japan. Globally, it very much depends on how the money flows, the money and credit flows. So it depends on how the money and credit flows and the politics that determine that. One short question before I go to Rania, you mentioned inequalities. We have seen growing inequalities in the US during the last decades. Do you think this COVID recovery can be turning point and how important are jobs in that context? No, I don't think it's adjourning. I think it exacerbated it. It made it more clear, but it's structural. It has to do with the nature of capitalism to some extent. The profit pursuing system will not change very fundamental things like how much money goes into education, whether there's an education disparity, or those types of equal opportunity, because profit system is a self-reinforcing system. Capitalism, by its nature, tends to create greater wealth gaps that are self-reinforcing. For example, if somebody earns more, because they're a net beneficiary of that, they pay more for their children's education and it self-perpetuates. In the United States, I'd examine the top 40% by comparison to the bottom 60%. They spend five times as much money on their children's education than those in the bottom 60%. By nature of societies, even through hundreds of years, you see that there are those who benefit, empower, and then there are those who suffer. Then you have conflicts. That's what produces revolutions. Revolutions are to create structural changes. I don't think it naturally will happen. I think technology will evolve in that same direction, that system of the profits pursuing system, which is a great resource allocation system and it's great in many ways. It is not good that way. There needs to be a coordination, I think, to restructure the way the machine works. Well, thank you so much. Then I'm going to turn to Rania. Rania Al-Mashat, Minister of Development for Egypt, how to secure jobs in this recovery. We know that in your country, as I mentioned at the outset, 60% of the population is under 30 years old when it comes to education, skills, and jobs. It seems like a challenge that is almost impossible to solve, but I know you're an optimist and you have plans, so please share with us. Thank you very much, Borgen. Thank you for arranging a very important summit at a very important time. For just one correction, it's Minister of International Cooperation and Development, so that I don't claim what is not there. Just very quickly, the true challenge from the pandemic is that more than 195 million jobs were lost globally, and from the estimates that the World Economic Forum puts out, 54% of those employed need to be re-skilled. I find that with a 60% young population quite an opportunity, because now, when people are young, you are able to re-skill them and retool them more quickly, provided that you have the political will and the very good understanding and relationship with employers so that it is done at a scale which is conducive to where we want to go. A few points on some of the important policy elements that were taken place, and these happened actually before the pandemic. Number one, there has been a very extensive effort and work from the government to reshape the education system, and that has really allowed for more technological tools being used. When the pandemic hit us, given our population size, we could do homeschooling, so this was quite important. Secondly, when it comes to the Ministry of Communication and Information Technology, there are so many initiatives related to reskilling and providing technological advancements to those youth, and we call that the digital entrepreneurial space. That does take place. Other issues related to making sure that now we have a digital infrastructure so that, again, this remote work or the new tools that the youth require can be there. But one fact, and this is something that the different companies who have worked in the country have seen, we have really a tech-savvy young population, and the idea is how do you equip them even more so that they are ready for the needs going forward? Well, thank you, Rania. Following up on your last point about all the young and very entrepreneurial and tech-savvy young people of Egypt, it is said that in the platform economy, it is a bit like the winner takes it all. If your platform is the preferred one, you grab everything. But at the same time, it is also said that these new technologies are also allowing people all over the world to be part of this economy. So it could be also a huge opportunity to leapfrog. Where do you see this when it comes to Egypt and are you optimistic? And what measures are you taking, making sure that you will leapfrog and not lose in this global competition? I think what is very important is that the different projects that do exist and the potential for the economy going forward be showcased more vividly. So, for instance, if we're talking about the new cities that are being put up, we have landscape for many different FDI and foreign companies in the private sector to be there, and they would require employment of important youth, which are equipped to be able to present there. If we're talking about renewable energy and other elements of other sectors that would also require engagement. So I think it's really important, and this is what we're trying to do, is to show where there is that potential so that the firms that can come in would be able to create those jobs and find the skilled labor force. Something else which is again one of the themes that the WEF always talks about is the stakeholder capitalism and how you can really engage whether it's a private sector or civil society, which also are able to provide some of the skill sets that are required in a more conducive way and in a more engaging way. So this is also something that is being worked through and just one element since we're talking about inclusive societies, the element of women, and I believe that on that front as well there has been a lot of policy movements that have been undertaken by the government and I think with the World Economic Forum we are the first country in Africa and the Middle East to really to launch the closing the gender gap accelerator. So there is plenty that is happening in that space as well. For your leadership, Rania also on this closing the gender gap in Egypt and the accelerator that we launched a year ago and also thank you for taking this initiative to forming this alliance of stakeholder capitalism in the Middle East. Now going to Alain Schupp, CEO of Unilever, as I also said I think your company has weathered the crisis pretty well. You're also a big, big employer all over the world and I know that you're following also of course the geoeconomic outlook very closely. Do you believe in a job full recovery and are we doing the right stuff to make sure that we have a job full recovery? Well thank you very much Berger. I actually want to start by picking up where Ray left off which is the coronavirus crisis is not the biggest crisis that we face at the moment. We have a stacked upset of crises and Ray mentioned a bunch of them. There's a economic crisis, there's a health crisis, there's a racial equity crisis, there's an increasing breakdown of international trade, there's a crisis of inequality and of course the big one, there's a climate change crisis that seems to be getting insufficient focus right now and I desperately hope this is a turning point on multi-sector approaches to tackle these crises in as you call it a job full way. To do so I think we need to do four things. The first is we need to change our measures of success. This preoccupation just with GDP and profit is not right. We need to start measuring what we treasure. You don't get what you expect, you get what you inspect and we need to start bringing measures of social measures and environmental measures much more to the forefront. The second thing is we do not believe in propping up obsolete jobs of the past, at least not in the medium term. There's going to be plenty of jobs around. The WEF has done some wonderful work that shows the explosion of new types of jobs that are going to happen and so governments and the private sector as we are doing need to invest in skills and learning. So change the measures, invest heavily in skills and learning for the jobs of the future. The third is maybe an unusual proposal which is to invest heavily in a low carbon future. Many of the jobs of the future will be in the low carbon sector where there's low carbon agriculture, low carbon energy, low carbon transport. That's going to be one of the places where there will be lots of jobs. Yes, the information technology revolution, yes the biotech revolution, but the low carbon revolution is an area that we think is going to be a booming space for jobs. And then finally we do need to shift to an evolved model of capitalism. The minister referred to the multi-stakeholder model of capitalism, capitalism 2.0. As we move more in that direction we will create the job for recovery that we all want to see. Thank you so much and as you also underlined the EU has in their figures shown that investments in renewables create three times as many jobs as traditional investments in more traditional energy forms. So we should probably then in your view also when we look at the fiscal stimulus that is out there we should then look at sustainability but also on inclusion but also how to integrate jobs in that context. Because as you addressed Arvino trying to secure jobs that are obsolete and then by furloughing or crude surveyed or Schumacher technique as they call it in France. When is it better to say that these jobs are not coming back and we have to make the structural changes? Are we on the right path there? You know I think in the acute stage of the health crisis right now it would be cold-hearted to be too judgmental on which jobs have got a long-term prospect and which don't. But certainly in the medium term policy has to shift to a very future-orientated mode and that means getting rid of perverse incentives to keep growing our dependence on fossil fuels creating incentives for people to reskill in the spaces that we've talked about information technology, biotechnology and thanks for mentioning Berga the evidence that shows that you get three times as many jobs per euro invested in green energy as you do in older types of energy and infrastructure. And of course we're playing around right now with the concept of the private sector taking responsibility for being net zero on jobs so that every time we restructure jobs the way we take responsibility for creating equal numbers of different jobs inside or outside of Unilever. But we don't understand the concept of net zero carbon we're playing around with the idea of net zero and jobs as well. I think to see that CEOs are taking so much responsibility for big issues these days as climate change but also inclusion as you mentioned it is also important not only to look at the numbers related to GDP but also on social inclusion but also the environmental footprint. But how do we manage also including jobs in this and securing growth? So all these measures are should not of course hamper growth because we have to get the growth machine starting again but it has to be a different machine. And are you optimistic that leaders will be able to make the necessary changes and how will your company as one of the largest ones in the world in your segment contribute? I think one of the most dangerous mindsets in the world is to set up a false dichotomy between sustainable business and growth. What we're discovering is that the business case for sustainability is bulletproof. The more sustainable we become the more consumers want to buy into our brands. We've saved about 800 million euros of cost from sustainable sourcing. Of course we grow trust and reduce risk by operating on a sustainable platform and last but by no means least a business that is trying to adopt responsible policies and practices is a magnet for talent for young people and so we see purpose as a pathway to better profits and we're trying to advocate to get rid of this ridiculous notion that it's either sustainability or growth in high financial performance. The two go, they correlate very well and we're seeing that with an explosion of interest in sustainable investing. Listening to Alan here, do you agree because you are one of the largest investors in the world and money talks when it comes to investments? Yes, I do agree that it's a false trade-off particularly over the longer time when the investments change the cost structure to bring them down but ESG investing will be a very powerful force. It is a very powerful force. It's emerging and I do think that the character of the environment, the way capital will be directed, will be much more government controlled and therefore it'll be much more politically controlled. I don't have high confidence in corporations and their shareholders themselves putting a social good ahead of an economic game. It's a difficult situation probably for them to be in but when you have ESG investing and when you also have the government necessarily redirecting funds in a totally different way that we're beginning to see, you will see that happen. I think the meaning today for example, when we have the governments do the borrowing and the central banks do the printing of money, they are taking that money and they're directing them in certain ways. Now the question is whether that is done well or poorly and the question is whether that is done productively or whether we will have a significantly diminished value of money because of the fact that let's say if it doesn't produce the same productivity then it will mean more money, more debt and less productivity would hurt. So I think the question is the quality of that decision making and whether we can do that in a harmonious way rather than sort of in a conflicting way. Alan, short reaction before we have to come to the close. Remembering to unmute there. Well I must say it's music to my ears to hear one of the best investors in the world showing confidence in ESG investing and I couldn't agree more with Ray that it has to be in the private sector's own interests before you'll see substantial changes in behaviour and we certainly believe that sustainable business, responsible growth, growth that creates employment inside and outside our company is a pathway to stronger financial performance and delighted to hear Ray's comments on that. Thank you. Last to you, Rania. Rania, can you hear me? Yes, yes absolutely. I just wanted to say that the governments have been providing a lot of support to economies and part of what was spent but in our case for instance was for small and medium enterprises and those are a large part of them run by youth so that just goes back to the ability to use you know fiscal policy or resources from the central bank efficiently to be able to again reignite the economy and make sure that we mitigate the socioeconomic implications of what happened from COVID and also through our role in the Ministry of International Cooperation being you know very closely working with development partners also there are lots of projects that basically again are tailored to the youth through the different micro and small and medium enterprises agriculture which is again you know moving a little bit into digital spheres and again I keep on mentioning this our global narrative is people and projects and purpose so people are at the core projects in action and purpose which the SDGs that we all adhere to and are really at the common denominator for for countries and firms today. Thank you. Chokran, thank you. I think also talentism plays a huge role here because those companies that attract the best talents will also be the most successful and I think as all the tree panelists underlined young people would like to work in companies that are and do care about environment about inclusion and also about quality jobs. As I said in the prep with the panelists the biggest problem we would have was the time but also I know 30 minutes has gone like super fast but the good thing is at least I would have loved to continue for another half an hour so we're ending on a good note people I think would have loved to hear more from the panel we will continue our summit this afternoon with new sessions jobs jobs jobs and thank you also to Sadia Sahidi that is behind this job summit managing director at the World Economic Forum and her team for putting together this great panel and a great summit thank you to the panelists you were amazing and thank you for all the viewers and our partners join us also for the next sessions during our jobs reset summit thank you so much