 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network week seven in the NFL is just around the corner and we got Ryan Williams back with us once again for today back from unpacking back from unloading all that fun stuff and a little reprieve from that we'll talk to Ryan for today to get his read on week seven the NFL breaking down some pretty big out of conference games and an AFC North battle will get Ryan's read on those games and his favorite bats across week seven in the NFL. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and numberfire.com. My name is Jim Saunders. I am a senior writer and analyst for numberfire.com. Join here once again as mentioned by Ryan Williams. Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. You can find all of his stuff there at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Ryan. It is a delight to have you back with us here for today. As I mentioned, you've been unpacking which sounds not fun. Starting all a whole lot of new stuff for you. So I'm happy to have you here. How are you doing? Yeah, I'm doing well. I'm doing well. It's fun to be back in the seat with you, Jim. I'm hoping that we can, you know, I hope for the people who follow me on Twitter that I can get back into regularly putting out my card and getting some action in for them because it has been kind of a crazy couple of days for me. But this is a fun week seven slate. And like I talked about always with you, Jim, we don't get too many NFL weeks. So we got to make the most of them when we can. Absolutely. Yeah, it's a limited sample as always, which is not fun. Always kind of scary, but we'll dive in to week seven here with Ryan in just one second. 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For strict supply, see terms at sportsbook.Fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLE or is it Fandall.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800-NEXT-AP or text NEXT-EPTIFI 3-3-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-NEXT-AP in Kansas 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Louisiana 1-800-7777-770 stop in New York 1-800-7778 hope and wire text open why in Tennessee call the red line at 1-888-99789 in Wyoming 1-800-522-4700 or in West Virginia 1-800-gambler.net let's take a look here at week number seven and Ryan I think one of the tougher things for me this week is we got some bad quarterback play and I have my model and I can put in a projected passing efficiency but sometimes it's hard to gauge just how bad guys like PJ Walker are going to play guys like Taylor Heineke might play like Heineke I've got a bigger sample on I can get a better gauge on that and sometimes even after I put in the wretched numbers I expect from these guys my model will still tell me to bet the commanders I don't want to do that because it's a tough situation to figure out so I wanted to ask you do you like betting those games where there's a lot like a really bad quarterback situation or is it too much uncertainty for you to handle? Yeah I do like to keep an eye on that on that stuff just in the sense that where the public is going or the shops or the sharps for that matter and where they're going and it is interesting to me to get in on these guys because I think that so many people view it through the lens of uncertainty but you know like Taylor Heineke for example let's talk about him you talk about having a large sample size of him we know he just has just as much of a gunslinger mentality if not more so than Carson Wentz and the reason why they went out to go get a guy like Carson Wentz is because they couldn't trust Taylor Heineke with the ball now they're at home going against a Green Bay team that really needs a win like the defense needs to play better what a better spot than to get them you know against this Washington commander's team you're looking at the Carolina Panthers okay what a better get right spot for this Tampa Bay team Tampa Bay defense the only thing that they can do well is stop the running contain past catching running backs and we saw what happened when Christian McCaffrey went up against the Saints they they held him to like seven receiving yards or something crazy like that like these defenses when you can find like these little inefficiencies or little notes and nuggets on teams and what they're doing and how they want to attack and looking at the other side and who they're going against I feel like there is some merit to taking some chances of on the opposing team that's going against this opposing quarterback yeah I think we talked about the commander's one specifically on Tuesday I was saying like my number showed value there and I didn't want to bet it and then it did actually move their way so I'm like okay should I have actually bet this because and the reason I was hesitant was because the reason I even considered it was because Heineke's numbers last year were actually better than Wences this year in terms of efficiency and like like you said they have a lot of overlap the problem is like Heineke's a gunslinger except like a water pistol as an arm whereas Wences at least has a cannon you know he actually has a decent arm and like that's the the key difference there but he was more efficient last year so maybe I should have taken the commander's plus five and a half when that was up there I didn't and a little bit of regret but typically I'm not going to regret I bet I don't make I'm much more like to regret what I do make so I'm okay with sitting that one out despite the fact that has moved that direction so let's talk about some actual fun games and actually a good quarterback and Lamar Jackson we got the Browns at the Ravens Raven six and a half point favorites here total is 45 and a half and you know I think that Lamar has been awesome this year and I think this Ravens offense has massive upside and they've shown that at times but they're also three and three kind of weird they've had some odd games against good opponent opponents the most part you know like the Giants obviously but can they bounce back here and cover against a divisional foe yeah it's tough because the Cleveland Browns have I mean I don't know what's happened with them over the past couple weeks but they have been struggling mightily they could use a win badly as they you know are getting geared up to possibly you know get their you know this was the whole talk about the Cleveland Browns can they sustain a couple wins and make it so that when they get their quarterback back who's currently not with them on the roster that they would be in contention and I just don't see it right now I mean Jacoby Brasette Rotto he had to go against his former team in New England last week that was ugly but even before that the thing that concerns me about the Baltimore side though is that everybody on this team is is dealing with something you know Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews both popped up on the injury report Devin Duvernay's on the injury report JK Dobbins the defensive guys we have been on the injury report all year Marcus Peters and others so it really makes it tough to bet on the Raven right now and the three of the past four games in you know with the Ravens and Browns taken on each other that they you know this number of six and a half it's been closer than that so you know all things considered you you do look at the numbers and Kevin Sidafansky has not been great in the division against the spread when we're talking about the AFC North so you know me I'm a Baltimore Ravens enthusiast when it comes to betting I will take this number although the hook does scare me a little bit but because they're at home granted that they're getting their offensive pieces healthy like you said they just they have more of a merit to put this game out of reach than the Browns can to keep up with them yeah I think I agree with you where the Ravens minus six and a half is a way to go with this one and my both my models agree with that my traditional model the one that has a prior in there favors the Ravens by six the Ravens by 6.89 points and my 2022 only model has the Ravens by 7.3 so both those directionally going the same way it's not a big enough edge where I'm like enthusiastic about it and I have not taken this myself but I do think the Ravens are the proper way to go here you look at their early down efficiency numbers like they've been the most efficient passing offense in football on early downs this year and that's again passing offense not like overall offense they've been the best overall offense too but like just strictly passing they have been the best offense in football in early downs so I think that what we'll see here is some positive aggression in the in in their favor and I think that eventually we'll see Baltimore kind of break out and establish themselves as being a legitimate contender once again despite their poor record you know the Miami game it happens the Buffalo game weird weather very good opponents they kept that game close actually got a lead in that game pretty early on I understand that one the Giants one was that was legitimately odd but no reshot Bateman there Bateman did get a limited practice in on Wednesday so he might be back Justice Hill got a full practice and two so maybe they can get some some health in their running back situation Gus Edwards might be back so it's pretty grim I agree and but I do think that I agree with you as well as Ravens minus six and half being the proper way to look at this game let's turn our attention now out west we got the Chiefs at the 49ers Chiefs two and a half point favorites this was three another one where I said I don't want to bet it and then it moved the way I said I didn't really want to go so whatever it was three it's now two and a half total is 48 and a half and the 49ers had a big letdown against Atlanta last week and potentially that's why I was hesitant to bet them I was like that's kind of annoying to see this happen but can they turn it around here and keep it close and cover or potentially win outright against the Chiefs this is a fun one because it came down like you said it came down by the hook to you know under three two and a half and it's just Patrick in the homes whether he's on the road or whether he's out like getting him under the magic number of three it just seems like you just take this every time now let's talk about the numbers Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo are absolutely amazing as home underdogs in the regime they've been phenomenal I believe over 60% when break for Jimmy G he's one of the best quarterbacks at home as a dog but this Kansas City Chiefs team they're coming off of you know a devastating loss at home to the bills we know how much wins are going to matter to them now that they have lost to you know the bills of trying to get that one seed in the AFC they are looking forward and have a buy coming up the next week so you know all things considered yeah this 40 minutes offense we know that they need to do one thing they need to establish the run and the Kansas City defense that's been the one thing that they've been able to do they have a pretty decent DVOA against the run it's against the past is when they've struggled so you know if they're able to contain Jeff Wilson if they're able to contain Debo Samuel on the run I got to take the Chiefs here you also look at the matchups in the past 2018 and 2020 in the in the Super Bowl when these two teams met they you know you're looking at the Chiefs winning these games and against Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan so I'm going to go with Patrick Holmes and Andy Reid on this one yeah fond memories of that Super Bowl Damien Williams going bananas that was a lot of fun for a single game DFS and stuff like that I think with the 49ers part of the other reason why I was hesitant was because they're really banged up and yes specifically I was worried about Trent Williams but he was back at practice on Wednesday so it's possible that means that they get him back for this game and if that does that's a that's an actual needle mover there now Ark Armstead didn't practice Wednesday wasn't expected to practice some other guys were out too so it's not a one guy here is all situation I would expect once I add in absences for Armstead and guys like that maybe it comes back to favoring the Chiefs right now it does I think I should take the 49ers so it's got the Chiefs by 1.38 points my traditional model the one I trust so a little bit of value in the 49ers is not enough for me to bet it and especially once I factor in the fact that it's probably going to move once I add in any absences like if Williams can't go it's gonna say it's not gonna say to bet the 49ers so he's a he's a big one and Armstead as well factor into that for me too let's talk about another one that's moved we got the Seahawks at the Chargers I did take this one I feel pretty good about a lot of movement in the Seahawks favor the Geno Smith revenge game Chargers six point favorites here it opened at seven then it was six and a half it's now down to six totals 51 and a half I also did take the under on this game I don't know how I feel about that that that that doesn't move just much but I'm a little bit worried more I think about Geno against his defense but we got a six game sample Ryan on Geno Smith cooking and the Seahawks playing good football can they do that again and cover and it seems like make a lot of better is very happy in this game yeah well we were on Geno Smith last week or I was on Geno Smith last week to cook against Arizona it was mostly because I finally got to bet against Arizona which I was ecstatic about and it was they worked beautifully it worked beautifully yeah that's exactly what you want no idea what's going on in the land of Arizona but yes the Seattle team has been absolutely so much fun to bet on to play to even just watch and you know I just have basically long time ago and we're only in week seven but five weeks ago I basically was already kissing my under Seahawks that's you know goodbye futures that is um so when you're looking at this okay so the the Seattle Seahawks what does Pete Carroll want to do he wants to run the ball with with with whoever he has back there Ken Walker looked great in his first you know stint of action as being the lead back I expect him to get going but with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett for Geno Smith I mean this secondary is really in trouble basically Jackson's been hurt he got benched last game it's a short week for the Chargers they are at home but the Seattle team is used to traveling down to LA because they play the Rams twice a year so maybe the Seahawks uh you know 12 shows up there in LA it's tough sledding for the Chargers who also like the Chiefs are looking ahead at a buy next week I think they will be getting Ken Allen back this week but no Joey Bosa has really hurt them when you're talking about them being able to get pressure but even against the Blitz Geno Smith has been carving up teams all this years I just have to go with the Seahawks side here um in this one and you know it's it's painful for me because the Chargers were the team that I was liking in the AFC to be able to try and get the Lombardi but you know we just got to go with what the numbers are telling us right now and it's it's really tough to bet on the Seahawks especially at this number here of of where their dogs well yeah I think that you mentioned the Chargers and how much you like them I did too and my numbers loved them I think that entering the season they were a top five or top 16 of my power rankings and that number the prior is still in it the prize adjusted to account for Noor Shan Slater and no Joey Bosa because those are like you know long-term injuries so the prior has been adjusted for those injuries but the model that loves the Chargers still says to bet Seattle in this game it favors the Chargers by 4.99 points so that number even with a heavy prior in there says bet Seattle my more aggressive 2022 model which penalizes I made this I'm going to be honest I made this this model specifically because the stupid 2021 Chargers because they they made me so mad what they would do is they would jack around and only downs and just like play idiotic football and then they'd use Justin Herbert's heroics on third downs and fourth downs to bail them out we saw that in the Raiders game we saw that week one against Washington last year like that happened and I was like okay I think they're overvalued in my model because it's not accounting for how stupidly they play so I literally created this model to account for how dumb they are and that model the one that should hate the Chargers does it has it has the Chargers here by point two nine points against Seattle I'd freaking home for the 2022 only model I think that's too far I can't go that far but I think that the the Seahawks are the right side here I took the Moneyline plus 250 on Tuesday I think that's down to 210 or 205 at a annual right now I'm loving it I'm feeling very good about that I am so so annoyed by this team it's like a spite bet like the the Seahawks against the Cardinals I was kind of a spite bet against the Cardinals this is a spite bet against Joe Lombardi the way he's running this offense and bottling up Justin Herbert not letting us let our big beautiful son do what he can yeah I mean absolutely how frustrating was that against you know the Denver Broncos on Monday night I mean they had so many chances to you know put this team away earlier than they did and you you'd let relying on a kicker who basically tore his hamstring in the game and decided to keep kicking and then get surgery afterwards it is frustrating to you know trust this team and offense with the way the coaching staff has treated them as such but Justin Herbert I mean you know he always is in the mood to you know sling it in and put up some point here I do think the over as you bet the under Jim I do think the over could be interesting here just with the fact that the way these two teams play and especially if Seattle is able to get up to an early lead and you know if it's left up to Justin Herbert to just sling it all around this could be a fun one yeah if the chart if the Seahawks get an early lead I'm gonna write that ticket off like that tickets done dead because if the chargers get put in a situation where they can actually use Justin Herbert the way he was built to be used that's a bad thing for my under bet so I think that like there's a very obvious pattern over there and I agree that like that is a scary scenario for me for sure but let's go Seahawks let's go Gino in your revenge game against the chargers where else is he in value in week seven over a fandal sportsbook Ryan oh let's see what is my what is my card say here okay so let's talk about the Raiders who are seven point favorites against the Texans at home both these teams are coming off of the vibe but I just I mean you know shout out to you know Lovey Smith and everything that he's you know doing to try and write the ship and kind of keep them the news and such and he inherited a tough situation there in Houston and David smells and and all that but I just don't see how they can keep up with this team I mean I guess you can maybe try me and just going and just hope that this stays in as much of a neutral game script as you possibly can but their car coming off the buy I think that they try and you know get Devonte Adams going while we're looking at what this uh with this little assault that happened uh with him when he was in KC he's gonna come to the person he still gets the play um outside of that but Josh Jacobs in a phenomenal spot I do like Stephen when it gets Davis Mills um so seven points there coming off of the bias I think is interesting and then we'll talk about I mean Unders have been hitting at an insane rate this year I think it's like one of the lowest scoring seasons since 94 or something like that I read earlier this week um which is insane to think about the way that you know everything is geared towards the offenses and scoring points and that's the whole point of doing this and why the NFL has made billions of dollars because everything's geared towards the quarterbacks but you know looking at Unders this week Bucks Panthers under 40 and a half have to take this with the way that the Tampa Bay defense has been able to contain running backs and if Christian McCaffrey isn't able to go although um they have been showcasing him I thought that was very interesting to see last week that Christian McCaffrey pretty much got every play call like in the first 3-4 series of the game because they are showcasing him to trade him I believe but I just think that you know that Panthers will struggle to score and the Bucks you know they're just trying to get some type of semblance of offense going here but they won't you know if it's out of reach I don't think they'll need they can put up 27 and the Panthers can put up 10 and this under will set the Jetson Broncos under 38 and a half too I mean we know we I think we know what the situation is for the Denver quarterback situation I think it's going to be Brett Reipen or however you pronounce his name uh yeah Rippon okay thank you I think he had a game against the Jetson like Thursday night football one time um I could be wrong about that but I think that happened it might have been a Trevor Simeon game I'll look into this you go ahead I'll look into this and try to see if that was actually a thing that happened so normally that stuff would concern us right it's like okay how is Brett Rippon going to play they talked about getting Melvin Gordon back into the mix and going we know the outside receivers are pretty out here in Jerry Judy in Courtland Sutton so you're looking at man is there a way that they can get over on this defense but the Jetson defense has been absolutely a little jet I mean these corners for the Jetson and what and Robert Sala what they've been able to do has been absolutely incredible so you know the Jetson the freaking line had come from I think it was three and a half of where it opened at so now it's one um so that's just telling me how they feel about the Jetson this team it's still Zach Wilson though so you know on the offensive side of things I'm not sure how it goes but I just expect you know the defense's style the Denver defense is probably the best thing about this team right now under there yeah my 2022 only numbers have Denver as being I think the best offense in football or best defense in football one of the best somewhere up there that game was not a Trevor Simeon game that was against Cleveland where he broke his leg or his ankle or whatever which is very sad but the Brett Rippon game was a Thursday night game in 2020 I think it was Thursday night yeah Thursday night game in week four something like that and Brett Rippon started for the Broncos he had 31 pass attempts two touchdowns three picks that game out of being a 37-28 win for the Broncos so Brett Rippon the magic against the Jets coming back to the surface for this week you like the under 38 and a half so you're not expecting any more fireworks like we saw on that one I'm not but you know what I'll tell you this if the bet doesn't hit I will live for you know a Brett Rippon explosion and the game going over and just having to hear the talking heads talk about is Brett Rippon the answer and just what do they do with giving Russell Wilson all that money though I would just be Kermit Kermit frog emojis sipping the tea like just enjoying that uh Monday night so or a Monday morning you know that'll happen because we had we had one point had a talking point about Cooper Russian attack Prescott quarterback contrary if you can have that the dumbest conversation that's ever occurred then you can have this one which is I mean given the way Russ has played not as dumb but like you can it's within I would never doubt any storyline after that uh Cooper Rush storyline popped up so I understand that for sure see uh Russ did get a limited session in Wednesday but the initial reports were pretty grim so I'm not really sure what will wind up there but even if he plays I think under 38 and a half is fully fully within the range of outcomes that is all we got here for week number seven on the NFL side of things we have our player prop preview coming out tomorrow with JJ Zacharyson will also we also have our college football podcast up with that thing on the covering the spread podcast feed and the fan dual YouTube page get those by subscribing to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast big thank you to Ryan Williams swinging back by uh despite all the unpacking all the craziness going on in your life I appreciate you being back with us for today uh Ryan good luck to you is that all continues and we'll talk to you once again next week I appreciate you have me Jim back to be here with everybody who's rocking along we'll cover in the spread all year go out and get that money and let's do this thing hopefully I'll see you next week absolutely we'll try to get that money and we'll root and hard for Gino Smith and Seahawks uh Ryan is on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore wi i'm on twitter at Jim Sonis j i m s a n n e s good luck to all of you we'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some player props for this week this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network