 Thank you very much. I'm delighted to be with you this morning, but my message is a tough one I'm going to start with the Climate disaster early 2003 50,000 people lost their lives due to that very hot spell in the summer in Central Europe And if I have the next slide I am in control, I guess There we go At that time I was in the British government and I was able to go to our Met Office and ask them to produce what you're seeing here in Black you will see the Central European summer temperature going back to 1900 and that hot summer 2003 this this summer here you can see was considerably hotter than the previous record hot summer in 1947 and So that was not anticipated But it's this rising baseline that is really the driver for these extreme weather events So if I just look at the red curves These are the Met Office's production of weather prediction for tomorrow very accurate for six weeks time very Inaccurate because weather is essentially noise on this graph So they've run it forward three times here at different Initiation periods just to illustrate this point that weather is this rather random movement But climate change is driven by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and that's a very regular movement If I go forward then and by the way I asked them to run the model backwards without changing any parameters and you'll see that it gives rather a good Description of central European summer temperatures, which gives us a lot of faith in the models What the model is saying is that by 2050 2045 the average Central European summer temperature will be the same as that hot summer of 2003 and Central Europe this year has now suffered a hotter temperature than 2003 these are meant to be in historic terms one in a thousand year events And we've now had to in a relatively short period of time by 2050 that average temperature is sitting up there and this is on a medium to high emissions scenario Which is what we are still on today And we'll see that then when we have an extreme hot summer It's considerably hotter than this one and the emphasis I wanted to put here is simply on the fact that when we look at the challenges of climate change We shouldn't just look at the baseline increase It's extreme weather events that always provide the biggest challenge We can slowly adapt to that slow change and then an extreme weather event knocks us off course Based on this when I was in the foreign office I led a program which is still on the foreign offices website shown here, which was to look into How we can manage Risks going ahead in time and this meant I took with me to China and India and they provided Leaders from the admirals generals security services, etc. We worked for a year with them But we took actuaries from the insurance and reinsurance sector in the in the city of London These are the people of course are used to looking at these extreme events that are not regular and On the basis of this report We came up with a series of factors for China and India which looked really rather terrifying So for example China's risk they asked us to calculate this of all rice crops failing in a given year Which is very low at the moment, but a half a degree temperature rise and that risk becomes very real in a given year And a one degree temperature rise and that risk is something that they have to prepare for But a second example is which is the first major city in the world that becomes unlivable because of regular flooding It's Calcutta and on the other side of the mouth of the Ganges from Calcutta is Bangladesh The first major country that will essentially lose two-thirds of its land mass for living You've got a hundred and fifty a hundred and sixty million people looking for somewhere else to live on the horizon In that sort of event So key to all of that is Rising sea levels and by the way rising sea levels means the biggest rice paddy fields in the world In the Mekong Delta in Vietnam will be salinated in Indonesia as well rice fields will be salinated Not very good news. We get to Paris and after 27 years of negotiating We finally get an international agreement 195 plus nations agreed to aim for 1.5 degrees if possible as above the pre-industrial level as the limit in the temperature rise that we're faced with we're already just over one degree and In the middle here, however, we had each country Volunteering what it would deliver and when we add up those voluntary agreements We find that we're still on a medium to high emissions trajectory Which means a four degree centigrade rise by the end of the century But we knew that would happen So we put in a review process and the review process is supposed to get these two things in agreement. It's happening in the UK Next year and what we all have to hope But I must say that the hope is Perhaps a little bit misplaced is that we can get that agreement to match 1.5 to what each country will do we have to still push for that Here's the challenge What you see is billions of tons of emission per year of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases going forward in time 2010 to 2050 The top curve is where we were before any actions The second curve down the yellow one is the trajectory We're currently on and then I'm afraid if we look at what was Delivered at the Paris meeting in 2015. It's the red and the green curves We're still nowhere near the trajectory to manage a two degree centigrade world Let alone a 1.5 degree centigrade world and both of these curves Correspond to each having a 50% probability We're not even saying that's a very likely if we managed to be on those curves Here's the sort of good news and I'm going to say very few economists predicted this Which is the the introduction of feed-in tariffs in Europe beginning in Germany 1989 1997 Britain flowing around Europe and then California We have been artificially creating a market for the clean energy technology So these this expansion of the market has led to a dramatic fall in costs And we can now say today that the latest Offshore wind turbines are now turning out to be fully competitive with new gas-fired turbines Installation offshore wind now competitive with gas fire. This is technology improvement and interesting Let me just make the point It's the marine engineers coming over from the North Sea oil and gas ventures that have joined the offshore wind ventures Not the companies not BP and shell the engineers who've come over and Created this massive fall in the cost of installation of marine based wind turbines So the result is that even before that international agreement in 2015 this Market had spread around the world and we have nearly half of the world's new electricity production from clean energy systems And in that year 367 billion dollars was spent in in that area We should be reaching next year a trillion dollars invested in clean energy technologies and the problem is that energy for electricity around the world is so increasing in demand so quickly That we are not actually seeing the benefits flowing through because coal is still being used more excessively than before and that will Continue unless we do something dramatic now in the run-up to the Paris meeting an economist Richard Layard from the UK and I worked on a scheme which Emerged as mission innovation. We originally called it the global Apollo program But Prime Minister Modi was the first I saw to persuade him to join. He didn't like the name. He liked the idea So he changed it to mission innovation. So we have 22 heads of governments volunteering to increase expenditure into clean energy technology This is public expenditure so that we would reach 30 billion dollars a year by 2020 Actually this year. We're spending 22 billion dollars The United States has not increased its budget in line with its original promise But I have to say that Trump has not withdrawn from mission innovation Why quite simply this is public expenditure being used to Remove the risks for the private sector getting into new clean energy technologies so all of the risks are generated through public investment and then it's the private sector that will take it again into The marketplace and that's how it will it will build up So we've got 22 heads of government not any heads of government leading heads of government This is roughly speaking on this photograph You've got people the heads of government representing 85% of public research and development expenditure around the world So we did manage to get a very good grouping of people. What are the technologies that are emerging relevant to? live electric is How do we store very large amounts of energy? Much more cheaply than lithium-ion batteries We have intermittent energy sources and if we have intermittent energy sources. We must store energy and Professor Heindl he's a mining engineer and he's come up with this idea. What you're looking at is A system that measures roughly the size of a football field It can be developed on a flat piece of land as long as there's granite underneath the land You can do this what you simply mine out I say simply but these are standard mining techniques a cylinder of granite under the ground You when you've got excess electricity on the grid you pump the granite up and when you need more Electricity say at night and you're using solar energy the granite pushes the water through a hydropower station And you create electricity The size of a football field. It's roughly 50 to 100 meters diameter roughly 100 meters deep that will store a billion watt hours of electricity So what we're talking about for for the United Kingdom if we had 10 of these We would be able to extend our use of renewable energy very substantially So we would need more as we move forward in time, of course And here's my favorite. This is a UK Company very lift airship, which is going back to the oldest technology for flying And this is electric means of travel because this has no oil or Fossil fuel base at all What you see is an enormous thing. It's about 12 stories high It measures 170 meters by 75 meters 170 meters long The size is a big advantage. It's an aluminum frame and It has photovoltaics over the top when it's lifted by allowing helium into airbags When it's lifted it rises to 35,000 to 40,000 feet where there's no cloud cover It intercepts enough sunshine Those are Siemens electric engines and it can travel at 240 kilometers an hour fully loaded 150 tons of freight So what what you see here is a disruptive technology of the kind that we need because it's net zero Emissions, but it's also so much cheaper in Britain. We bring tomatoes from Spain to Britain We have to get them from farms Making growing tomatoes to airports. This has an on-board crane We simply leave the ships containers in the farmland when the containers are filled with tomatoes They're lifted up into the airship and then delivered from the air to the depots of Sainsbury's and Tesco's etc the total cost of energy used is just about zero and So therefore the total cost of this process is really considerably reduced and the speed of time Mission innovation has seven initial areas for collaborative research And these areas are all actively being pursued each of the areas has two countries in the lead and We we are in the lead of the first one smart grids electricity and heat storage heat storage is a Continuing major challenge, but what I'm saying is this is a major investment 22 billion dollars a year and the private sector really needs to lock in to see what is happening and Then invest in what it feels it can take into the marketplace Now all of that is the good news and I'm now coming to the bad news What I'm showing here is What I think is the single biggest challenge to humanity over the next 10,000 years It's what happened has happened to Arctic sea ice Here's where the climate scientists who did the calculations got it wrong They didn't use feedback in their calculations and I'm Happy to admit this here But Peter Waddams at Cambridge was measuring the extent of the volume of sea ice He was given permission to travel on these three nuclear submarines that go under the Arctic so the only person who's been on the British-American and Russian submarines and He's measured what you see here this rapid fall in the volume of Arctic sea ice So the loss of these are Peters measurements the loss of the volume of Arctic sea ice is such that today we can see That effectively at least 50% of the Arctic Ocean is exposed to sunlight in the Arctic summer Now why is that a risk? Well the Arctic sea is dark blue It absorbs 80 to 90% of the sunlight that falls on it the ice white reflects the same amount So what we're seeing is the Arctic circle region is now heating up at about two and a half times the rate of the rest of the planet and it's the consequences of that that I'm suggesting we really need to be very worried about if you look at the central picture here the What you're looking at is what's called the polar vortex Which is an upper atmosphere wind blowing around the Arctic which keeps the cold air in the Arctic and the warm air out It's become badly distorted and the reason is actually very simple. Whoops. Sorry How do I go back? Okay So what you see is that that wind has become distorted in scientific terms It looks like a cosine law distortion and this is just a snapshot of that wind at this point the North Pole is quite a bit warmer than that region in Canada in the United States, which has a Red region indicating cold. I was giving a lecture in Dallas and Texas when the temperature was minus 15 degrees centigrade They had never seen a temperature this low in Dallas, Texas And this is the reason the distortion of the polar vortex But of course as that rotates around They can then be followed with a very hot summer because the bits between are Still very hot and so we get the weather system in the northern hemisphere Dramatically altered, but that is not the real problem. We can adapt to that What you see on the left-hand side is Greenland and Greenland sits in the Arctic Ocean It's now subject to Arctic summer warming to the extent that we're losing Ice from Greenland when ice on the Arctic sea melts sea levels don't rise When ice on land melts it has to go into the sea when all of the Arctic sea ice Sorry, the Greenland ice has melted sea levels will rise by seven meters globally Well, there's enough ice there and when it's all melted seven meters And we're on the way now to melting it what you see here is the loss of ice that occurred even by 2005 and then on the right-hand side is perhaps the biggest challenge of all but We in the scientific community have been saying very little about it methane emissions We know that methane hydrates are very significant in the Arctic region And there's certainly enough methane if it was all evolved into the atmosphere methane has roughly 80 times the impact for climate change than carbon dioxide per molecule There's enough methane there to drive global temperatures up by 15 degrees centigrade so We should be worried about this, but we couldn't calculate the point at which this might happen and Scientists don't want to be scaremongering However last year I was invited by the president of Iceland to go to Reykjavik for the Arctic Circle Forum and At that forum for the first time they had Russians from the Academy of Sciences in Russia And I'm now showing you pictures. I got from them This is in Yamal, which is essentially a piece of Northern Russia that is permafrost very little earth in that It's mainly water as ice and methane captured in the ice as methane hydrates People in a village a small village 300 kilometers from here Complained to the Russian government that they were hearing very loud explosions and They thought the Russians were using this as a test site for weapons When the methane begins to warm up in the Arctic summer It forms a great bubble of methane under the ground and when the bubble reaches enough pressure It just blows all the ice and the rest of the methane out leaving a great crater in the ground Very beautiful cylindrical craters are formed in this way That's the only thing that's beautiful about it That's a massive relief of methane and think people 300 kilometers away heard an enormous explosion If you are there walking on the permafrost before the explosion It forms a mound if you feel the ground moving you should run very very fast How many of these have now exploded well when I met them last year they said about a thousand And the latest information is it's well over a thousand now, of course if this continues Essentially, we are cooked Right. This is a point of no return. I Go back to the seven meter sea level rise How many cities of the world are sitting on coastlines and how many of those cities would be able to survive even a Two-meter sea level rise a very small number. So what we're talking about here are Tragedies lying ahead that really spend the spell out the end of our civilization And therefore I'm saying what we begin to do now what we continue to do and We only have a short period of time probably less than a decade to get everything in place Is going to determine the future of humanity for 10,000 years and that's the serious situation We're in now and so I'm setting up in Cambridge a Global hub of center for climate repair and these are the objectives deep and rapid emissions reduction at the moment we're emitting about 40 billion tons of greenhouse gases per annum globally and We need to bring that down as close as possible to zero in a very short period of time We need however in addition to create new carbon dioxide sinks and by this I mean sinks that are scalable To the level of adding them up and making it about again 40 billion tons of greenhouse gases being captured from the atmosphere Today we're at 413 parts per million of carbon dioxide, and I hope you've seen that's already too much What I'm saying is one point one degree centigrade is too high We need to pull greenhouse gases down from 412 to less than 350 parts per million If we could set up traps, and I believe it can be done to take up 40 billion tons a year And we're at net zero emissions It would take about 30 years to get to 350 parts per million and that's a trajectory that I'm saying We must be on I don't think there's an alternative to this How do we manage this? Well quite a number of different interventions have been brought forward cloud brightening this is a Scottish scientist Salter who's designed these ships which pump seawater it up into the high atmosphere and the seawater creates tiny sodium chloride salt particles and as those salt particles come on to cloud They whiten the cloud they turn the cloud into very tiny droplets which become white and if those clouds that you Feed in this way are heading towards the Arctic region in the Arctic summer You're going to shield the Arctic from the the Sun So the idea is to cover both poles with white cloud cover in the in the summer That's just one idea to indicate to you that there are Good ideas out there. I think I'm now going to stop at that point I've got no clock in front of me. I thought there would be but I've probably used up my time. Thank you very much