 Welcome to the weather forecast The week beginning Wednesday June 17th 2020. I'm chief meteorologist John insworth for the Longmont public Media and my computer is back. So I'm back on the right side of your screen Saturday, we are almost to new moon This month with only 2% of the moon visible and the moon is up in the sky for almost 14 hours because the Sun is It's very close to the Sun. These are the longest Days shortest nights of the year All right a big picture can be seen in the water vapor satellite image and if you're new to these videos the whites and the Gray colors are parts of the atmosphere. There is more moisture. We see the purples and blues There's even more moisture and often ice Cloud tops and some good lift there the reds and the orange colors are dry Between the top of the atmosphere at least the top of the troposphere the lowest layer of the atmosphere down to the surface You can see this big swooping pattern in the West. This is our trough That's going to change your weather very remarkably this week This is gonna look a lot like our last big storm You can see the flow goes up and into Canada and on there's this persistent cut-off low over the Mid-Atlantic states it's giving them unusually cool wet weather And I think they're really liking that because normally it gets really hot and humid this time of year Little low up here associated with all this cloudiness and high icy clouds That same pattern is visible just about 12 hours later with the low up here another low forming down here There's our trough in the West a little bit of ridge here. There's our cut-off low in the mid-Atlantic In the air flows coming out of the Northwest and then up across Colorado from the Southwest Giving us pretty Substantial heat and I just noticed that my letters are cut off over there on Tuesday So sorry about that For Wednesday noon as that trough comes closer We see some snow on the higher mountains of Idaho and Montana Wyoming and some rain lower elevations and a cold front up ahead of it with precipitation lagging behind the front The big picture for the next 10 days Shows this cool front coming in look at that tremendous drop from record and near record heat for Tuesday Wednesday dropping to really low Temperatures for Thursday Friday You know some nighttime temperatures don't go below normal even though the daytime highs are that's due to the cloud cover and moisture They'll be moving in that moisture can be seen here is to distinct afternoon mainly Bands of precipitation some thunderstorms like that The model is actually seeing snow in a couple runs here I don't think so our normal low temperatures are in the upper 40s climbing to low 50s Normal high temperatures are in the low 80s and climbing up a little bit over the next 10 days Beyond this cool front and stormy period you can see the temperatures actually stay warm But within normal bounds for the rest of this period and showers scattered afternoon showers return in the later period For Thursday a.m. This cold front is now pressed down Past the state we have a little low down here helping Funnels some moisture up over the front lots of moisture in the northern Rockies And what's happening Friday noon is this trough is moving in closer It's actually a little bit of a cutoff circulation right here. That's the other pool of cold air They'll be moving over the state and I'll drop our temperatures down even further on Friday with an overall trough Stretching from the low up in Canada all the way down off the California coast Little ridges and troughs over here the east coast low is finally getting pulled into the jet stream flow and Getting taken away by this So for this rain that we're gonna have Wednesday and Thursday we need moisture and we have it this map is Precipitatable water. This is the amount of water that you can get out of the atmosphere In an ideal situation like a perfect thunderstorm going off The darker greens are more available moisture and the brown colors are Less available moisture in a drier atmosphere And it's a pretty thin ribbon coming from the western Gulf of Mexico up into Mexico, Texas A lot of it's just flowing up across the Great Plains But a little bit is getting sucked by that low here's a low and at this point down in New Mexico Sucked over into the eastern plains and up against the mountains That's all we need is a little easterly southeasterly northeasterly flow a little bit of moisture coming up hill and you can get rain You can see that the chance of convection matches that why shape With the main ribbon of moisture going up across the Great Plains that little bit being sucked up Into the Rockies and some moisture. It's also being pulled in on shore In the northern Rockies. It's almost the same pattern for Thursday No severe weather at this point is predicted by the storm prediction Center for Thursday or for the next three days By Friday afternoon our fetch of moisture is a little deeper You can see it's a it's broader across Texas definitely more moisture in place in this in Colorado Nebraska even a little bit of Wyoming a good ribbon being drawn up into the Great Lakes So that's the fuel for our Friday storms How much precipitation will we get over the next five days? This is more reliable in the 10-day, which we'll look at in just a moment But these are mostly convective situations. So thunderstorms are popping up fairly randomly Some are triggered by mountains some are triggered by outflow from earlier thunderstorms So it's a little chaotic and so what the model sees each time is going to be a little different. So don't Put all the money you have on to the fact that there's going to be an inch of rain down here east of Longmont or just a half inch to three quarters of an inch in Longmont It's just kind of shows you how Spaced apart the heavier precipitation Regions might be because here's an inch to inch and a quarter up in the mountains and foothills above Longmont lions like that Well the next 10 days it increases a little bit more Maybe a touch more moisture around here Mountains get a little bit more Palmer divide gets a little more out here in Kansas gets a little more Precipitation, but it's not a lot Now they're big part of the news story is the haze in the smoke coming into the state right now We have fires near Tucson Central, Arizona in the North Rim of the Grand Canyon and down in the four corners area in South Western Colorado and These fires start kind of quiet in the morning as the daytime heats up the relative midi, which is the amount of moisture in the air divided by the Maximum amount of moisture that can be supported at that temperature Times 100 gives you a percent relative humidity every day in the afternoon as the Daytime heats up as the Sun warms up the land the relative midi drops and that helps these fires kick up more So for Tuesday evening, you can see they've calmed down a little bit and then Wednesday morning You can see they're picking up again You can see quite a plume coming from there I'm a big plume coming from Central Arizona up towards us and lost in there is the Colorado plume But that's a lot of smoke for Wednesday then the cold front pushes down And for Thursday noon, you can see that we're getting a lot of that cleared out and pushed down The fires are also quieter in this frame so they're not pumping out quite as much smoke I don't know of these models taking into account a rate of fire containment expected and Things like that. It might be that moisture is going to be increasing over Arizona as well making the fires Naturally suppressed. Not sure after our cool down for Thursday and Friday and Weekend will be dry, but only in the 80s. We do get this ridge back in the Western States for Monday, and so the heat will come back. We'll see 90s come back Our trough is kind of disorganized moving out across the Great Plains at this point Let's take a look at the next seven days Still a lot of heat for Wednesday and sunny skies For Thursday and Friday. We drop dramatically 20 degrees or more into the 70s and then upper 60s in 40s at night with thunderstorm chances pretty good. We should see some Nice soaking rain if you call a half inch soaking for the weekend. We're mid to upper 80s and just partly cloudy Next week we see some moisture come back Heat come back now to kick off a few wandering afternoon thunderstorms at this point does not look like a big Change in the weather obviously a lot hotter These will be the things that form in the mountains and then move on out hit someone there and other subdivisions matter of all For more local news take a look at the Longmont leader formerly the Longmont observer a longmont leader calm and You'll see more frequent weather updates Sometimes I even do updates in the middle of updates to keep up with watches warnings or any breaking news in the weather So this has been the weather forecast for the week beginning Wednesday June 17th. I'm chief meteor I'll just John Ensworth. Keep looking up