 Thank you. It's a pleasure to be here. It's always nice to come to Ireland and believe it or not the weather is actually much nicer than anywhere on the continent at the moment. So it's really nice. So there was the real reason why I'm here. It's because you have asked me to come and it was I wanted to size the opportunity and the other reason is effectively that we are launching the Survey on Ireland and the main author and the one who will respond to the difficult question is sitting in the front row Me I'll give the the overview and we wanted to do two things one was to Give you a an overview of the global outlook Given we are publishing our projections in three weeks time. I can only show the number from November But I will give you a hint about how we are thinking about The main development since November and the second part of the presentation. I will also try to Give you enough about the Irish survey that you want to read it as soon as you leave this room which Will be So let me start with this the The view we had and the way we were thinking about the both out look Until until the corona virus was really too In in two terms the first one is this is the longest expansion for after recession for a very long time So we are sort of reaching the end of the cycle and the second thing is a Big disruption had been triggered two years ago by by the threat tensions And it's very very feasible and I will show you that so that the way we were seeing the combination of these two Is actually growth decelerating slowly and then stabilizing Because even with a phase one deal in the US, we are not solving all the issues That are behind the threat tension. We're not solving them because they will be very difficult to solve It's not only a bilateral trade deficit issue. It's that most countries have been come concerned with Competing in an unfair way of having a level playing field and competition when some states actually subsidize their firms when you have a Little protection of intellectual property rights or you have forced transfer of technology And we all can see that when you're trying to deal with this issue But the phase one deal is not dealing with it And and it will take years to actually deal with it. The second thing is it's also very disruptive because You had the trade tension we had the trade tension between the US and China first and then in move it's moving to US and Europe before it was Mexico Canada and the type of agreement of bilateral agreement is actually full of uncertainty as well Because you have some threshold which triggers some reaction So the whole context of trade has become a lot less certain than it was before So what you see on the right-hand side is actually some stabilization Of where we see the economic growth in the forthcoming year This where the number we published in November And the purpose of keeping them here is I think apart from the coronavirus and I will talk a little about it When we took stock of where we are today in preparing our projection from March compared with November Finally, we were very much in line with the economic outlook So that's one reason to show you this table. The other one is that I can tell That Ireland is obviously one of the highest both rates with 3.6 percent in 2020 according to our projection and 3.3 In 2021 so you cannot see here, but it really stands out So I insisted a lot of sorry on trade for the reason I'm going to explain now This is back And I should have said trade and Brexit as well as uncertainty This is back in the first quarter of 2018 so at the time before the trade tension actually Evolved and this is a survey asking firms. So what are your main concerns and What we want to show with this chart is that firms they had pretty ordinary concerns, right? They couldn't always find the right people that's the labor shortages They're obviously concerned by regulation. They also thought that in some countries they were weak demand But no things stood out really but now if I show you what they are concerned about today This chart shows very clearly on the left-hand side and the red bar that what concerns them the most its economic uncertainty So what are economic uncertainty? It's trade to a large extent, but not only it's also the evolution of a virus regions, it's also the evolution of Technology why don't we see it on productivity is whether growth will revive or so on but but trade made a big change in the balance of this uncertainty and Obviously this has driven down manufacturing and an investment growth and I'm sure you've seen that but what's really really striking in the current juncture It's the decoupling between services and the manufacturing sector and what has really collapsed Has been manufacturing as you can see on the left-hand side With the PMI that really fell below 50 that is below the recession level services have also Been falling and that's obviously because a large part of services go into manufacturing It's lawyers a content and so on but but less so than than manufacturing and With the lot the chart on the right-hand side Should show you is that at the same time as trade was trade boss was decelerating massively and was going even Below zero at some stage. We also had investment going down. It's very simple They are very good and complicated academic paper showing the option value of waiting But in simple terms if you affirm and you want to invest boards You wait to see what will be the tariff and the trade type of Agreements that that you will see how it really both how firms are relocating production So we have seen investment growth collapsing into them with manufacturing growth And that's really what has driven the slowdown that I was showing you earlier now until The coronavirus We were quite happy to see some signs of stabilization thinking okay that you know bottoming out And we're now gonna stay at roughly the same growth level. It never happens like that in economics We were concerned to show stabilization. It doesn't really exist But but obviously the coronavirus has changed things a little At this stage I cannot give you number not only because we have our projection in three weeks time But also because we are still not sure when it will pick And whether and how it is going to to spread and what I can tell you is If we look at a storm that virus Usually it goes through the winter and starts fading In April or May So the first question we ask ourselves when doing this projection is when do we think it peaks and then recedes If we look at a standard virus this seems to suggest that it will likely pick between the end of Q1 Q2 And depending on whether it's in Q1 Q2 then you can expect a recovery later in Q2 or Q3 and And when we think about it like that, you know if we had a recovery In Q2 then we could hope that by the end of the year the situation would be Normalized and we would have the same type of growth rate as what we would have had absent the coronavirus Obviously If it lasts longer into Q2 if it spreads Much beyond China and Asia then it's likely that will have global growth That will not be what you have seen on the slide with the number and that we will have to revise Down this projection So we are like everybody else following what the WHO and healthcare Specialists are saying and we still have three weeks until our projection. So we hope it will pick before that Let me now Adjust a glimpse on a piece of good news Which is that one of the reason why we are not seeing services go further down and one of the reason why The global the global growth is stabilizing. It's because consumption is holding up really well and it's holding up really well because Wage growth and employment have recovered up to the point that in most countries it's even Bringing back people who had left the labor market all together Again if The coronavirus is short-lived Then we are pretty confident with that this will continue if it goes beyond What I was describing as a sort of basic scenario if it if it goes beyond Q2 and in Q2 then then this will be different Okay now That's for the global outlook I can I can also go deeper Into a what the slowdown in investment that we have observed not only following the threat tension But also because we haven't really required the type of investment growth that we had Before the financial crisis. So what that that's missing investment does for future growth But in the interest of time I will start discussing Ireland first and then if you have any question we can come back on this so Because I was told this was slightly too long, so I'll come back if necessary now Let me let me give you hopefully a feel for What we have in the Irish survey And I think that They're in fact Three points we would like to make the first one is as I was mentioning before Ireland growth has been well above the European Union average as you know, and it's one of the most dynamic Economic which is which is also why it's always nice to come here It has also this both has also helped on the fiscal side, but we think that that has that grows In the medium term is can be challenged by structural factor. So it's good in the short term and we're Little more concerned about the medium term and we're concerned for two main reasons The first one is what's who I should say is driving both in Ireland and as was mentioned in previous survey, it's Mostly it's to a large extent foreign on enterprises And what we would like to see and what we analyze here is how to make this this both dynamic That that's being brought to buy foreign on firm diffused to locally on firm So how to make Ireland is even more resilient and dynamic. So that's one of the things the second Concern we have is the fiscal Sustainability so again, not short term but longer term Because a lot of tax receipts come from this foreign on firms because of aging issue We also focus on on the fiscal sustainability so That's the nice part Global you can see island growth and the unemployment rate on the left-hand side Which was one of the most the best performing countries in terms of unemployment as well as in terms of growth And that has been going on for a while And that has translated obviously in a tighter label market Which is always nice because that put pressure on wage growth and we are indeed seeing wage growth And in one of the slide that I haven't shown earlier, but when we compare in Ireland how the Revenue of the middle income of the middle class has evolved is has actually evolved Increased faster than total compensation in Ireland so that means also that inequality are being reduced which Is quite unique in across OECD countries? however There's always a but or however as you can see here Investment has started slowing down partly because of Brexit uncertainty Partly because Ireland is such an open country that it's most sensitive to trade and protectionist discussion We are seeing this it's In this context and that's that's I will talk about this a couple of time We're also a bit concerned that you know the discussion on international taxation and the possibility that there could be an international agreement Mean that the tax position of Ireland may be a little less favorable and attractive than what it was before Which is also why we put so much the accent Unstructural factor like digital like education skills and fiscal sustainability Ireland has a Lot of resources that can make it more attractive even without this tax advantage So let me let me show you this So I think it's it's it's one of the we have many nice slides But it's one of the nicest and I'm not only saying that because Ben had to complete it in the taxi coming from the airport to make it so perfect So I'm very grateful to him because we wanted and and he insisted I think he's very right. We wanted to show two things first, you know on the right-hand side our past The productivity gap is growing not only labor productivity, but also capital intensity of labor between the foreign on firm and the Irish on firm and And we really think that Ireland can do better and what you can see just after the bar on the right-hand side is actually Investments probably stabilizing meaning that label put on has started declining Maybe that label productivity even in foreign on firm is stabilizing, but at least a big big gap And Ben insisted that we should show actually the gap in level and I think is right because that gives an idea of How much there is to catch up and and how good it would be for the Irish on firm to actually catch up with the foreign On firm so you you can perhaps not see but the value-added per employee in a foreign on firm is About three hundred six seventy five you where we as it's 120 in locally on firm so that that is at the at the heart of the following and Obviously, they are more productive They tend to be very profitable and they obviously attract All they attract a lot of talent and many Irish talent So that in fact what we can see what we can infer from this chart because we don't have that precise data But what what we can infer from them say first overall there is a shortage of skilled people in Ireland. That's the That's the blue bar that you can see so it's the job vacancy rate today or in 2018 the latest available data Which is much higher than what it was ten years ago And then the little triangle is the share of workers employed by large firms and large firms tend to be for an own not only But they tend to be so that you can see the Job vacancy rate and so the Labor shortage is very high in the financial sector Obviously in the technology sector and we think for the professional sector. It's a lot Link to research and development and also local firms of sorry firms of lawyers and another professional services and One of the reason is that there's a lot that Ireland can do in terms of boosting Education and competency and what this chart is showing is the skill shortage index by type of skills Island in red OECD in green. We should have done it the other round. Sorry But what is of concern to us is this goes from the basic skills to basic content Basic process all the way to the system or complex problem-solving skills and obvious I mean the island is not alone in that case But I think this is of particular concern to us because it takes a lot of time to revert So it's very important to act super quickly on this and The other thing is and again We as you know look at the skills and competencies throughout the lifetime Which you also want is that people who didn't have the chance of having the right education in their youth They get it later when they are at work on when they access the labor market Which is why we also look at adult learning and it all the more important today that with Digitalization a lot of us have to reskill ourselves for that and with this with this chart is showing here is That participation in adult learning is limited and that's true so the little blue triangle are the young people and The blue bar are the age 55 and plus and When you see island in red You can see that there's a lot to do in terms of training for the young people on the labor market And there's also a lot to do in terms of training for older people and when I sell there 55 I found that very young but still the classification has not evolved without pension recommendation Which I find shocking But but the point is really to say that to see that there's a lot to do for both young and older people and especially among those So that's super important because as you know what happens in digital firms is not only you have Intangible assets digital capital, but usually you have the competency that go with it So if you don't have the skilled people, there's no point investing in intangible assets Which are very digitalized if you invest in digitalized You really attract straight away those people and not to the point and we'll discuss that But usually they go and in a hand and the firm which starts with the right assets and the right talent Can grow very fast and even constrain competition in a way that That it piles up advantages There's a huge premium for the first mover in the digital Industry and what we show here Is two things first the share of intangible asset is rising But we could suspect that and I'll show you why that it actually stays within the same type of firms And so on what you see on the right hand side when we compare digital technology usage in Ireland with the rest of OECD Ireland is actually very good when it comes to Social media use or when it comes to cloud computing and it does much better than the OECD But when it comes to using this for firms like enterprises resource planning or customer relationship management Then I know this less good or average with the OECD And that's a suggestion that the big firms they probably have it, but it has not diffused throughout the smaller size firm and This is Actually completed when we look at where these intangible assets go It will not be a surprise to you that you find them In ICT you also find them in professional and scientific and and in manufacturing To to our mind the fact that we have these Two slides suggest that there's a lot of intangible assets Which are also related to patents and to research in innovation in again foreign owned firms Which is not bad, but it needs to diffuse otherwise It it it leaves Ireland vulnerable to a move of these firms outside of the country Now has this translated in productivity gain, I think the chart speaks for itself and the answer is Not that much again a source of concern you want productivity gain to continue increase so that growth keeps high and People get job It's also and that's why we were insisting so much for the investment in skills because Ireland which you can see on the right hand side And I think that confirms that everything gets Concentrated into the digital firms where the label shortage or the under qualification might eat its highest Is also in the same firms that have a high rate of intangible investment So if I if I sum up this picture would what we suggest and show is that They are foreign owned firms. They are very digitalized They attract talents and they concentrate algorithm and they keep this first mover advantage Meaning that you have in local firms perhaps less qualified people less capacity to go and attract both talent and capital And that is really what Ireland needs to change And that's just in case you needed one more slide to get convinced is showing the productivity When we exclude digital intensive firms, so that's the blue curve and Compared to the digital intensive Which is the white one and what this shows in fact when we look at the entry rate We're looking at the dynamic of the market and whether there is competition and the existing firm are being challenged by other new firms And when you see that the red line is flat what that means is that in fact They let the entry rates is not as dynamic as what it is outside of the digital sector Why is that again because of the complementarity between algorithm and talents? I was talking about Because also you may have a lot of issues with licensing if it takes too long It's too complicated then firms have difficulty challenging the existing firm And it's also the case that the digitalization of business is changing competition and one of the things that we explain in The two things in terms of competition the first one is obviously competition rules have to evolve to account for the digitalization of business I'll give you an example of all the large digitalized firm buying very small digital start-up before they reach a certain Threshold to make sure that they will not grow to become competitor and because the threshold is low then this falls out of the scrutiny of the Competition authority. There's also one thing which is more specific to Ireland which is that the competition authority cannot actually enforce Because of the setup they cannot enforce the competition measure that would be helpful to recreate some dynamic Now the reason why we were insisting so much on the difference between foreign owned and local firms is The fiscal stance not been particularly tight over the past years in Ireland Sure, you would agree and the reason why we are now getting into positive territories because we had the exception of reset receipt from income corporate tax and and that's Largely coming from the foreign owned firm since they are the source of more than 75% of Ireland corporate tax receipt So that means that any slowdown in foreign investment will be a big risk to financial stability or at least to the for the extanker revenue Okay, and on top of this like for many OECD countries. I'm sorry to say or I'm happy to say I think there's an Irish say which says that it's good that we're aging because some people do not have this chance So we are getting older And and what you can see is how the population of 65 and plus is evolving and the way it's evolving it would add about one and a half percent of GDP in terms of spending by 2030 and more than 6% of GDP by 26 point of GDP by 2060 And that's due to public health and pension which obviously is massive because that would That would bring and you can see Ireland in right on the right hand side, which is slightly higher It's in the top part of the OECD and that that concern says because it would bring the the debt At about above one hundred fifteen percent of GDP You will see in in our view there are two things the first one is that It's probably the case that Ireland as one of the lowest tax revenue in OECD country as a share of GDP But it's also the case of the composition of taxes and expenditure and there are some Recommendation in the report and I would highlight a couple of them one is on the tax side How to rebalance taxation so not necessarily increase it but to rebalance to make it more efficient and bring in more Revenue one is about the property value and obviously to reassess the value to take control of the evolution of property values and the Other is also to streamline the VAT system and move from five to three Rates also we are very much aware of the impact it may have on the low-income earner so they should be some provision for that and And on the spending side and there's a lot of focus on primary Healthcare coverage because Ireland is the only OECD country where there is no universal Primary health care coverage which obviously first creates tension in the hospital and may mean that it's not the most Efficient cost-benefit in terms of health On this happy note, I love the cover of the survey And I want to thank you for your attention. Thank you And there was a lot more so the presentation will go up on the website and Lawrence didn't have a chance to to talk about today will be on the website and of course in the In the country report as well. There's more even more material. I have about 250 questions So if you don't get your question in soon, it'll just be a dialogue up here By the way, this is on the record usually that the Q&A is off the record. We've agreed to do this on the record Even quit for now as examiner just to summarise What is your message to to an incoming government to the politicians on? health housing the old-age pension is 68 and second question is How bad could or will it get for Ireland in from what comes out of the OEC driven global tax reforms so Health pension and the housing, okay on the housing our message is that There are two things the first one is continue with their supply side measures Which I think the Irish government has been doing for quite a while and that includes Resoning some of the land that's publicly owned that it includes allowing more building or higher building in the Blyn and that also includes Actually, I should add taking care of public transport to make sure that the housing which is a bit further away from the Blyn Can get into the city more easily. So the supply side. We are very much in favor of continuing usually the men's side measures They just contribute to push prices up when supply is restricted. So that's not a fantastic idea on pension as you very well know the pension age has increased in 2014 and will continue to increase to reach 68 This is a recommendation that we make across all OECD countries that the retirement age should evolve With the life expectancy and life expectancy has increased significantly across the G20 And so can the effective so can the retirement age now There's one, you know, some countries have done like Portugal from memory have done Quite interesting things which is that each time the life expectancy increases by one year Then the working life should increase by three-quarter of one year So there's a bit of a gain for people and and one for also Sustainability we have a lot of examples that you can find in one paper of our website comparing what countries have been doing So that we believe this this is a recommendation we make across the OECD Now as you could see from the charts One also recommendation which is common to many OECD countries is we also need to help people to actually stay in job beyond the age of 55 and Too often the employment ratio beyond 55 is not high enough So it may have to do with culture. It may have to do with anticipation, but there is quite a few Papers and country experience showing that when you increase and the retirement age It actually changes employers mindset and instead of seeing you or me as a liability with only two to three years in the firm and therefore not worth investing in since you're going to stay ten or twelve then it's worth continuing to invest in you and and that's why we also put these charts on on retraining and learning when you're at work In terms of healthcare And as I was saying Ireland is the only country which hasn't got universal coverage of primary health and There's room for this to happen because it increases First it gives some certainty so going it increases the health of people and third it may also help, you know Reduce some bottleneck in the hospital and managing that more efficiently Obviously, it's not a free lunch, which is also why we talk about the reallocation of taxes and expenditure more generally Did you have a fourth question that I have forgotten? The tax So I Actually invite you to this is the first time I have the opportunity to make some advertising To look at the OECD website today where the tax and economic department Are presenting to the public the result of a joint study that we did so I I'm sure the OECD ambassador will be sensible to the fact that sensitive to the fact that you know two departments are working together very well But the the center for tax policy and nursing in the economic department. We've actually modeled from a bottom up approach in very many details What that means under different scenarios because as you know no scenarios fixed And the the discussion about the reallocation of taxing rights and the minimum income rate We have not published country in a specific number So I will I'm not in a position to answer your question But if you look at what's public on the website and it's made public today It was made public this morning. You will see by group of countries good Good afternoon Barry O'Halloran the Irish times You're probably aware that we're heading into a period of political uncertainty first of all is that likely to make the OECD revise and its predictions and its assessment of the Irish economy and secondly Would the arrival of a high-spending left-leaning government in power Equally make you reassess Your view of the Irish economy. Thank you And so thanks for the question. Yes, I'm aware sometimes I even read newspaper and Joke about no, we are very aware of that. I think the specificity of the OECD is Really to focus on the structural issues of the country So the structural issues that we are dealing with in this report for us They're available for the previous government and for the forthcoming one I think it's We're really convinced it's very important to keep the attractiveness of the Irish economy On top of beyond the tax issue. There are lots of skills. There are lots of talents. There are lots of research And there are a lot of people and really Ireland has the fundamentals to strive and not only because of foreign Own firms there needs to be more diffusion of the benefit brought about by foreign firm So all these and the fiscal sustainability There remain issues which are not short-term. They need to be addressed today and they will And they will have you know, it will not take a year or two. It will take many years It's important to start as early as possible Good. Can I ask a very nerdy question not political but your graphic on productivity growth? On multi-factor basis it ended in Ireland 20 years ago. It's extraordinary. How does that compare with other countries? Oh It's a very so it's a very general phenomenon I mean the intensity will vary the magnitude they vary depending on countries But one of the thing and it's in the economic outlook. I think we presented Either in May or in September last year You can see that productivity growth in OECD countries has just been a 20 to 30 years declining trend Which in part explains why you have interest rates going down also also beyond monetary policy Yeah, and it's a it's a it's a huge concern from us for us for all OECDs I think Education issues is a concern for a lot of countries and that they there's lack of ability to capture the skill One of the things I went very quickly about which I can show you Let me just This which you may have seen which shows the risks between inverted the quote-unquote Of how automation is affecting people and what you can see on this chart It's the percentage of workers at high risk of automation By income class. So what concerns us? It's obviously they are lower income People who would be affected, but the the one really who would be most affected Or largely affected is the middle income people because what what will change is the routine task and What we estimate at at the OECD is like 14% of the job that exists today would disappear and another 30 or more Would drastically change So the issue of education and retraining is hyper important And I know this right in the middle Surprise anybody else am I missing anyone down there? And you want to jump in? Okay, could I just follow up on that? Yeah, you know For decades we've been hearing about how technological change would create mass unemployment Employment rates in most OECD countries are higher than they've ever been As you say skills shortages seem to be a bigger much bigger problem than that than unemployment When we talk about technological change, I think we often Focus too much on the job destruction effects. How do you feel 10-15 years into the future? Do you think the jobs that will be lost or changed because of technological change will be replaced by jobs? We don't even know that don't even exist now So I think there are two things the first one is we're concerned about this because At least we economists have talked about trade open ice for 20 30 years and the benefits It was bringing to everybody without paying attention Enough attention to the job. It has also destroyed on it on its way And and we have not you know on average on aggregate I'd steal the case trade open ice is good The fact is that for some regions in some sectors some people have suffered and there's very interesting research including by my colleague at the World Bank showing that these jobs that have been lost sometimes they haven't recovered or The earnings that have been lost have been lost also for a long period of time So I think part of us and our job at the OECD is to actually say an automation is good overall There's no doubt about this we live better We're more connected and it's and it's great But there are people who will be left out and we need now to pay attention to them To make sure that we don't repeat these mistakes and the second thing is Obviously, there's a need. I mean Who codes in Python here? right Who uses Python which is a coding thing well all our kids Probably none of us right so to me that shows that there's a need for risk healing Throughout life. I mean we all had to start using social media. We do that more. I'm sure you do it better than we do So there's this need and that's what we want to to focus attention on also that the skills are not the same So we can go into education and perhaps just one more thing We also say that because in this digital age, there's a huge complementarity between the skills and the capital and what we are Showing here is that we are not investing enough into the infrastructure That will allow us to use to invest in in digital and to use it to the its most optimal effect digital technology This is a survey with firms coming from the European Investment Bank and more than half of European firms say that they can't invest Because they lack infrastructure Necessary to invest. It's something very Easy, which is actually I think it's here. It's the adoption of for example, 5g or 4g Talk about the autonomous car How do you have autonomous car in a country which cannot pick up the data because it has not connected people enough With 4g or 5g Impossible so the investment you make today The care you you the attention you pay to digitalizing the country the territory is super important and on top of this it's connecting people So yeah, you can talk forever about this Good we've got one there Jeremy Harrison, I'm a member of the Institute I was very interested in the emphasis that you laid on skills and on Basic skills. I started working with the European Commission in the late 1970s Trying to help boost basic skills throughout the member states There were about 10% at least of young people Permanently left behind under-trained under educated Since then it seems that governments have responded on a cyclical basis only that they haven't seriously improved that problem And here we are still all those years later Focused with economists raising exactly the same question Do you feel that you have in any way well supported by education and training policy over those years? And are you being better supported now? And in a way, I think yes for two reasons the first one is The first one is we are seeing the effect of a lack of education because this is leading This is creating generation of very unhappy people very resentful and that are calling for policies Which in the medium term will be detrimental to growth So I think this movement is actually raising concerns among policymakers and because that can affect them today As well, and it's the same for business the other thing is We at the OCD as you know have the PISA study and 10 it's now 18 years old or something like that a bit less than 20 So we start having enough data on a time series basis that we can really show the impact of good or Less good education the same with teacher how they behave how many hours they spend together how many discussing their students with their Pedagogical training is doing with the size of the class is doing whether you should mix good and less good students With the impact on the average students so so the fact that we have now more data more and more analysis more evidence We think will help and we are seeing some countries actually using that you know with Finland being the ultimate benchmark for OCD countries But for example in my country the fact that they've divided by two the size of the class for young kids of the age of five or six It's making a huge difference So hope Paul Sweeney member of the Institute and former member of the trade union Advisory Committee to the OECD When I was on that committee The OECD had very little interest in inequality or the environment. It's hugely improved I mean you had on your tax policies this poisonous no less poisonous is the right word hierarchy of taxes which was based Not just Ignoring even John Stuart mill a liberal tax guy you totally ignored and equity in taxes just focused on growth It was your references to tax was always tax as a burden It was never a charge and you've improved a lot since then to inclusive growth and sustainability But my question is have you gone far enough on both roads? So it's it's a very interesting question I'm particularly sensitive to it because I was a young economist probably same age as Ben 15 years ago at the OECD And now you know I'm here and I can see the absolutely the evolution. I don't think it's Let me rephrase that I don't think 20 or 25 years ago or 15. This was OECD specific I think it's it's a it has been a general trend that we wanted to go because both is also Bringing benefits and at the same time I would say until the late 90s, you know when we had the regulation there was a boom everywhere it bought one billion or a third of the world people out of poverty so To me it wasn't a mistake to focus on growth, but now we know that it's not enough And also that competition has changed and market has evolved and to give everybody a chance You need to also focus to access to the same opportunities for everybody. And I think that's that's what we're doing So we are now and I think echo is our department. So is our quite symbolic of that We are We have a flagship publication focusing on structural reforms that Include as six or reforms what we need to do for the energy transition And what countries need to do to make sure that everybody has access to education to health to transport and Cat boost their human capital and their well-being because that's also how you're more productive So for me all this go in the same direction and that's quite natural to do that Defan cause our French ambassador. I have two questions one is regarding the state of the Irish economy You could go back to the notion of overheating perhaps because I noticed you were quite conservative in your forecast 3.3 percent when the Irish central bank. I think is at 4.8 percent growth and The second question is more general going back on the taxation corporate taxation Discussions at the OECD. How do you see that developing and are you confident that it will be An agreement by the end of the year Okay, thanks. I don't think we're way What is Okay, so there so I think that's one source and fact one this projection now the rubber and So we could just describe We tend to also try to Yes, so we I mean so we have very strong growth We have a coming off in 2020 I think we're on John McCarthy might also like to talk about this moment of finance because I think that we're quite similar to their kind of profile so Don't mean the reason that we have it coming off is because we see partly because we see these capacity constraints starting to surface So we have we also have strong it quite strong export growth in 2020 and then it coming down in 2021 But we see investment starting to ease We also see these demographic trends that we talked about here also having an impact on labor force Participation rate and unemployment growth and that bringing down consumption growth a little bit. So we're I Think that we see a 2019 that's 6.2, you know partly being distorted I mean to be perfectly honest by some of the activities from foreign multinationals So if we look through that we think it's it's kind of in the high fours in 2019 and So so we're seeing a step down in 2020, but not a huge step down in in our minds So As you said 2019 was very strong Now one of the things we've taken a look at in this bulletin is is if you look at GDP is where the growth is coming from And there's been very very strong growth in exports Which has to do with concentration in a number of sectors. So it's it's pharmaceuticals and computer processors and computer services Some of that looks like it's continuing. So it's the export forecast. We've pushed up link to that, which is the difference So if you look at underlying domestic demand, which is kind of a key measure that we look at We see that coming down from about 4% in 2019 to about 3.7 to 3.2 So it's it's what's happening on the export side with this new information that we have Is the difference so in some ways there's not a whole lot of it Somebody who did it for 10 years and got it wrong most of the time cannot test Tom Well, actually, I don't know what's more difficult economic forecast or epidemi forecast For taxation We're actually quite confident that the discussion will continue to To take place because it's in everybody's interest to talk about it and Not all the work all the you know today we present results for big groups of countries But we obviously don't have a unique scenario in terms of What shelf profit you want to reallocate? How you're exactly you're reallocating what's the scope? What's the off industry and so on the same for the minimum income tax It can be various tax rates So so there's a lot of details that we need to that countries actually need to continue discuss And it will at least I think the target is to have something by the end of the year. I cannot Say for sure it will be the end of the year. It may be beginning of next year But but the discussion are really ongoing and I think so far proceeding as As plan in the calendar now it's 137 jurisdiction so it's a Continuous work Started a little bit late, so just take one final one. Thank you. Thank you chairman Tom. How he remembered the Institute and Talk about average temperature and average growth, you know, the head could be freezing and the feet burning It's it's not a very comfortable position, but and You've heard the phrase leprechaun economics. There was one Footnote on the trade charts, which was absolutely astonishing And I wonder could you shed a little bit of light on it that if you took Ireland out of the equation? I think was it 2018 that Growth in global trade would drop by three quarters from 1.7 to 0.4 And it just seems absolutely astonishing Thank you so as I've also been a Economist of the eye on the Irish desk 15 or 20 years ago And I think we also had this type of discussion. It has to do with the Integral party on the patents. So it's All I can say it's accounting and it's independent Promise so we try to smooth it out when we obviously Smooth it out as much as we can when doing the forecast so that it doesn't distort other countries Because the way we look at it the trade export and import globally have to be more or less equal It's better and that's obviously distorting a lot. So we usually make a cloud sport Okay, thank you very much. Thank you for coming as I