 Welcome, Fraders, to this week's live analysis session with me, Patrick Munley. If you can hear me loud and clear and see the tick-mill welcome screen on the chart, because I pay a Y in the chat box that would, that would be great, just so I know that we can hear me and see my screen. Okay, let's get going. Before we do jump into today's analysis, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Trading any financial instrument carries a high level of financial risk and we want to be cognizant of that. And most importantly, the views expressed here today are solely mine and they don't constitute investment advice and or are they representative of tick-mill? So for those who are new to this session, it's first time here, my name is Patrick Munley. I've been trading or been involved in financial markets for past 15 years. I wasn't always involved in financial markets after I graduated university. I joined a consulting firm in London and eventually left that firm with a couple of other employees and did a startup that experienced pretty rapid growth over a 45-year period and I cashed in my stake in the company when we merged with another business. And so then I had a bunch of time in my hands and some capital to play with. So I started to explore my passion for markets. Through the nature of the work I was doing in my prior role, I had a front row seat really to the dot-com boom and bust, seeing people make and lose a fortune and quite literally overnight in the market. So I started meddling or gambling really, I guess you'd more accurately refer to it as in the E-mini S&P and day trading that market was was heavily trending and I caught some lucky early breaks, made some solid and then some quite significant gains. But when the market phase shifted, I started to average down into what became a significant losing position to the point that I actually took a six-figure hit and really had a second look at myself and think what was going on. And so it was at that stage, I took some time to think about whether or not I could make trading work in terms of delivering a sustainable income. And I came to the conclusion that I thought I could, but what I needed to do was to seek out a mentor, someone who demonstrated excellence in field of trading, who I could model their behavior essentially. And so I worked with my mentor for about 18 months, two years, not just on my technical game, but more importantly my mental game. So really having a much higher level of self-awareness, understanding psychological drivers involved in trading and in personal performance management, which is something I spend a lot of time working on. So over that period, I developed a trading plan, a business plan, fully back-tested and forward-tested. Then I came back into the markets with my capital in 2008 and after a rough start, certainly that January I remember, I managed to continue to trade through that period and actually came out with a positive return at the year end. And since 2008, I've managed to deliver positive returns on an annual basis. Now, the reason why the screen it shows from 2013 to now is that in 2013, I actually started and managed account service. Initially, it was for friends and family who saw what I was doing and wanted a piece of the action. And then it's grown organically with external investors and I manage a multi-million dollar portfolio. And like I say, the focus for me really is on excellence in terms of trading process. I don't not attach to the outcome of an individual trade or even a string of trades where my focus is on the next 100 trades. And I know that if I adhere to my plan, execute that with excellence, then the returns will take care of themselves. That's not to say I don't have losing trades or losing months or multiple losing months. That's simply not the case. That's a reality of the business. But over an extended series of outcomes, so the next 100 trades, I'm expecting to deliver positive or see my edge demonstrate itself. And I'm looking, my real focus is on these annual returns. The key metrics down here that I keep a keen eye on are the average losing month being a negative 2.4%, whereas my average winning month is 8.1%. And so you can extrapolate that out to the idea that I'm looking to have two to three times risk-reward ratio in terms of my trades. And by focusing on that, that's where I can deliver these returns over time. So that's just a bit of context with respect to me. I've got a couple of other projects I'm involved in. I'm the market expert in residence at Tickmill. I deliver a daily market outlook and a daily setup that I'm watching. You can subscribe to those and get notifications via the Tickmill blog. The other project that I'm heavily involved in is head of trading and trader education for FX career swap and emerging retail trading talent development firm, really. We're taking aspiring professional traders. We're giving them a fully, full development program based around fundamentals of trading the forex markets. And then some bespoke strategies I've been using over the past 10, 12 years now, sorry. And then what we're basically doing is we are, or we believe so much in the quality of the education we're providing, that we ultimately fund traders with an account at zero personal financial risk. And then they can grow that because the biggest problem that retail traders basically face is the idea of capitalization. And you can have a fantastic trading plan. And if it's underpinned by professional risk management strategies, whereby you're risking less than one percent of trades, even if you have a great year and you deliver 30% or 50%, if you're only trading a $1,000 account, 300 or 500 pounds isn't really going to move the needle in terms of financial returns. What tends to happen to retail traders is that they experience some success with what they're doing in terms of their trading plan and their discipline with respect to risk. But then they become disconcerted by the lack of financial gain. And so they tend to overextend themselves. And in doing so, when their strategy comes into a small drawdown, the losses are amplified to the point that they ultimately end up over-leveraging and blowing up their accounts. And so what we're saying to potential professional traders is take that money invested in yourself and then you'll ultimately have the opportunity to trade a meaningful sum of capital and to grow that sum of capital over time. If anyone's interested in actually running a 14-day free trial for that service at the moment, I'll put the link into the chat, which I'll sign up through there, or message me on LinkedIn and I can give you more information. So that brings you up to speed with who I am and the projects I'm involved with. Now let's think about the market. So before I get into the actual charts, I just want to give you a heads up in terms of, as I always do, thinking about the seasonalities with respect to the market. The dollar has weakened this month in what should have been its best month of the year. And this is indicative, I think, of some bigger forces that are playing the market with respect to the vast liquidity that is being thrown at the market by the Federal Reserve to support risk assets. And so the seasonal tendencies are a little bit out of whack at the moment to my mind and we've been driven more by this vast sum of liquidity that's been put to the market. We're also seeing the all global central banks all going down the same path, essentially, as they try to plug up significant holes that have been caused by the coronavirus pandemic. And so we're seeing this dollar weakness develop at the moment. And if we go into the monthly chart, Mr. Chart, I keep an eye on. And for those of you who are regulars or returning here, you'll know that I've been tracking this trend line in the monthly dollar index. This is the broad dollar index, the broader basket, six currencies in the US dollar. And you can see similarities here. We're getting potentially a triple rejection now of this trend line. If we close at these levels or lower the end of next week, then that will be a harbinger for the dollar, I think this could be the start of this weaker dollar move. Even in terms of the momentum studies as well, they're all setting up pretty similar to how they did for this last leg lower in the dollar. So what I'm looking for ultimately will be a equality move. So equal legs. Initially, I think, obviously, what I've been looking for is a test of this trend line support where we could get a bounce. But ultimately, what I'm anticipating over time is that we see a test of this equality move probably back down into this 88 area as the move I'm looking to play out in the dollar. And then, obviously, that feeds into the euro, the euro being the major constituent of the dollar index basket. And you can see the inverse, basically trace the inverse. And we're holding here at this trend line support. And again, you can see these tails suggesting to me, if we think just purely in terms of price action, that certainly significant demand in and around this 108, 107 level. And certainly, if we can see some follow through to the upside, then I think we can revisit the 114, 115 area. Through there, what I'd be looking for is the test of this major trend line, which would be up at 118, 119. So that's what I'm looking for in terms of the bigger picture. Now, if we think in terms of near term trading opportunities, well, last week I talked about the idea of this 125, 74 area, 125, 60 as being potential resistance. This is the equal weighted dollar basket, the Dow Jones dollar, which is equal weighted versus the Australian dollar, euro, the Japanese yen and sterling. And we got a bearish rejection from that area. And we've since taken out the trend line support that I've highlighted to be cognizant of. We're moving through there. Looks like we're weakening up a bit again today. Target for this move initially is going to be an equal leg move, which would take us down into this 124 handle. So that's, you know, expecting us to play out something like this. Then as we potentially see, you know, a correction from here, nothing, oh, markets don't tend to go in the straight line. Obviously, looking at that move there, you could question that idea. But what I'd be looking for is that is some a corrective move to developing around this 124 is actually now versus this swing high, an equal leg from this structure here. And so I'm looking for a test ultimately down to this 122 area. So whilst we're whole, whilst this high is in place, then for me, Euro points down to this 122. And so in terms of my trading, I've been, as I mentioned last week, I was long the Euro, got a signal on Friday to go long the Euro. I took profits as we tested the 130 pips out of it. And I've gone back into the Euro this morning from 109.60 and see if we can get the drive now to test the equality objective, which is versus this, I call this the interim quality objective at 110.50. But ultimately, what we'd be looking for now is this bigger equality objective or the primary quality objective versus this reaction low reaction high and secondary low is, it's actually up here at 112.30. So again, I don't think we're going to go there in a straight line. What I'll be looking for is a test of this 110.50 and then maybe to retest the descending broken descending trend line resistance of support, which would set up the next leg, which should take us up to that 112 area. So like I said, long at the moment, and I'm looking for a test now of this 110.50 to play out. Obviously, we'll should probably stick around 110.20 those price-wing highs. But if we can take out stops above there, then we should see further short covering that should take us into that 110.50 area. So that's what I'm doing with respect to the euro at the moment. I'm watching here in the Suisse. We're sitting on the trend line support and we've got a nice inside day candle developing here. And if we can, we can see this candle close at these current levels just sitting on the support, then what I've been looking to do heading into the New York Close tonight or the London Open tomorrow would be to sell a break of this trend line because similar to the dollar index and obviously to the euro, we've got bigger primary equality objectives to target here. And so if we can take out this trend line, what I've been looking for would be for Suisse to ultimately come down and test this 93 handle. Now, more likely than not, we get to 95 and we have a little bounce similar to the idea that I just talked about in terms of the euro. So a corrected pullback moving into these prior lows here. But ultimately, I think we should be heading for a test of the 93.90, which is the equality objective and certainly versus this resistance area at the 97.50. Dolly Yen, watching this one. I was looking for it to actually test the equality and symmetry resistance at the 108.50, but we're struggling to get up there. We're at the sitting at the monthly pivot, weekly R1. We've got the monthly VWAP just above us here and we're into the volatility resistance area. And so if we get a close tonight sub 107.40 and I'll be taking a look at this, this one on the short side because what I see here is, you know, we take out this trend line and then again, I've got an equality target versus this structure here down at 104.68. So if we can take out the trend line support, get a close below the daily VWAP, then that will green light my short setup here to take us down into that 104.50. So that's another one that's on my radar tonight. Looney, similar setup again. We're sitting at trend line support here, well just above it in what is potentially descending triangle. And again, we've got a target, an equality target versus this structure down here at 136.30. So if we can close in and around the lows here, then what I play for is a break of the monthly VWAP, the triangle support and ultimately be looking for a move then down to test 136 in the Looney. So that's another one that's on my radar. It's nothing in the Singapore dollar. Euro yen. I'm watching for the Euro yen to test a target here. Got this structure. So we've gone through the equality objectives. So now we're looking at the 161 extension of this structure, that swing. And then I bring in the symmetry swing. And you can see that that's lining up now with the 161 extension. And if we just pull up the fibs, the additional confluence, we've also got this 78.6% retracement. So what I look for here in the Euro yen is a move up into this area. And not necessarily looking to short it at that stage, but we get then a symmetry swing here. Like so, then what I'd actually be looking for would be a long setup to target a retest of these prior highs at the 121 area. So that's another one that I'm just keeping an eye on. Let's check in with Sterling. So Sterling had due to the Brexit issues and the way basically that the UK government is deemed to have mismanaged the corona pandemic. Sterling has been under pressure. But we're seeing, we've taken out the descending trend line here. And what I see the potential for now is a symmetry swing to play out. So an equal lead move, which could take us back up into that 124.50 area. So what I've been looking for with Sterling here is a bullish inside candle to close at or near these prior highs and then to break as we get over the coming sessions. So we'll see where we close tonight. But if we can get a close towards the highs here at this 122.80 then that would also be a long signal. And we target a move up into this 124.60 who knows we could be going higher. But initially that's where I would look for some profit taking to develop. And obviously we get a nice risk reward there because we've got this inside candle. So that's also one for the radar. The Aussie. So watching this as well, looking for a move now to test this long awaited target here at the 67 area. Where I think if we looked at the momentum studies you can see we've got significant divergence developing now. So if we get up into this 67 area and we still have divergence, we've got a 78.6% retracement of the crisis decline. We've got the equality objective all syncing up at 67. So I'll be looking for a bearish reversal potentially from the monthly R1 there to see at least a corrective move, three-way move lower in the Aussie. So that's one that is also on the radar. We've got a similar story in the Aussie Yen here. We've got some divergents developing and we're coming up into that equality target versus the move of the reaction lows here. So looking for a test at the 72 area and watching for bearish reversal patterns to potentially do something on the short side in the Aussie Kiwi. Similar deal in the Aussie Swiss looking for a pop higher and a quality move now will take us into that 78.6% retracement area monthly R1. So just about 65. I think we could get a tradeable correction from those levels. The other trade that I'm actually in at the moment is the Aussie Kiwi. Look to this five-way structure, momentum divergence and we've certainly seen at least at the present times some profit taking from long positions. This was the signal candle, this bearish reversal pattern from the volatility resistance and the equal equality move into that potential fifth wave high here. So we'll see how we trade. I've got to stop now just trading this daily VWAP but what I'd ultimately be looking for would be at least to move back down into these prior highs here at the 105.20 and keeping an eye of course on this area. First of all, which is the trend line support. So we could move back into here and still make one more high and it will be like an ending diagonal pattern. So we can make another high here by that time. I would imagine significant divergence and from there then we get that move but by the time we, if we trade down to this area, the trade will be risk free by that stage. So we'll just see how it plays out. We're ultimately looking for at least a test of this 105 area. So a couple of hundred pips lower and I'm already risking about 50 pips on that trade. Kiwi, similar story. I was long the Kiwi and took profit on that last night. Just over 100 pips out of it as we test into this resistance area. So if we get a close through here, through this resistance, then that's going to open up and move to this 64.30 area. So I'll go back into the Kiwi if we can get that close. I really want to see a close above 61.70 to open the doors then for some momentum higher here to then test 64.38 to 64.80. That's 78.60 per cent of tradesmen and we've got the equality objective here. So I've already taken some profits in that but I'm going to watch now for potential to re-enter here depending upon how we trade today or even in the coming days. Again, what I'm looking for is that close above this prior high to negate the potential triple top here and another pullback. So that's what I'm watching in that one. Kiwi Yan, highlighted this as the chart of the day or in the week and it's playing out. Again, now what we need to see is that close above this range resistance to open the door to a test of the 70 level. We've got the equality objective up here at the 69.50 78.60 per cent of tradesmen just above. So there's a nice target zone here. So we get a close above range resistance and I think this thing can break out and then we're trading up to the 70 level. So watching the close there and then what I'd be doing is then using intraday charts to get into that trade to basically target that equality objective. Last but not least, we're looking at the S&P looking for this to break out now, highlighted last week and this, you know, the Aussie and the S&P are basically trading in tandem at the moment. So if the Aussie and the S&P can both hit these equality objectives, 78.6 per cent of tradesmen, it's from these levels that I think we can see at least a correction developer. And so I'm watching these areas closely and watching the Aussie and the S&P because if you can't, for whatever reason, if you can't trade the S&P, you can certainly use the Aussie at the moment as a really nice proxy for it. So if we can get up into this area, get a bearish reversal pattern, then I'll certainly be looking at shorts in the S&P. Gold starting to see the reaction here. So yeah, with gold, you're looking at the, it basically trade to the tick, to its equality objective and we saw it sell off. Now potentially today we get a confirmation signal with a close below the near-term BWAP and I think that sets up a move then for an equality swing equal to this last swing that we saw over here should play out from here. So I'll be looking for a move down into this 15-25 area. The trade is, you know, the market is very long gold at the moment. It's a crowded trade and what we often see in these situations is we hit these equality objectives. We break out the triangle like we did somewhat prematurely. I would have liked to see another test of the triangle support here to confirm the ABCD pattern, but we didn't get that. We broke out and now we're stalling to the tick at the equality objective. So if we get a reversal here, I think there's a short opportunity in gold and we could see a meaningful swing to the downside. Certainly what you want to be doing is getting the trade risk-free by the time we're testing this ascending trend line support, but I think the scope potentially for a bit of a shakeout in gold. And last but not least today, crude oil. Crude oil is looking like it's on track for a recovery here, especially as these economies reopen. As long as we don't get any seriously negative news with respect to the infections in the coming weeks, then I think we see a correction in gold and it's going to set up a pretty nice in-burst-send-shoulders pattern here or potentially at least. And certainly I'd be looking at opportunities in crude. We can get a move back down into this $20 area, these prior loads over here, bullish reversal patterns on a daily close here for me. And then I'd be long and obviously what I'd be looking to do would be to target an equality move, which would actually take stuff into the 50% of the tracement of the entire decline that we saw in crude. This is the continuous contract, obviously not the futures contract, but looking for $38 here, so a pretty decent move to trade for if we can get this pattern to set up. Those are the charts that are on my radar and the setups that I'm watching and the two trades that I'm currently in at the moment. Are there any questions? Does anyone have a chart they want me to take a look at that I haven't covered? You can type it into the chat box or the question box. I'm happy to take a look at any other charts or give a view on a chart. Okay, no questions or charts. That's good. I must have done a wonderful job of explaining this to you today. Okay, guys, well, look, yeah, that's where I'm up to. So I'm long the euro and short the Aussie Kiwi at the moment. And I'm watching the Kiwi pairs, especially this Kiwi dollar, Kiwi yen, key closes potentially above some range resistance to start another leg higher, watching the Swissie, the yen and the loony as well as they potentially break out with this dollar weakness. So I think keeping a very keen eye obviously again on these monthly closes, they're starting to show real signs of potential future development here. So I strongly suggest you keep those on your radar as well. Okay, thanks very much for your time, everyone. And I hope that was helpful.