 This is covering the spread. Here are your hosts, Jim Sonnis and Dr. Ed Feng. What is going on everybody? Welcome on in to covering the spread. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com where today we are getting you set for the quarterfinals of Euro 2020 breaking down all four matches and the futures market with Alex Heiner of NumberFire getting his thoughts on those teams and what to expect this week. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com joined here as always by Dr. Ed Feng. You can find his work over at thepowerrank.com and Ed, the round of 16, seemed pretty crazy. Got four matches coming up this weekend. How are you doing today? In general, I'm doing great. Been so obsessed with Euro. Been fun watching a lot of these matches. I'm also in a little bit of mourning because Germany couldn't get it done against England. And in fact, you know, that's hence the black, you're wearing a black and Germany kit right now. So it covers all the bases at once. Yeah. And, you know, they just did not play well against England on the road at Wembley. I just don't think they played well and they still had their chances and they couldn't put them home. So yeah, it's a little bit of a disappointment, but yeah, you know, and I also love the Dutch too. And they also flamed out in that round too. So, but it's not gonna make me enjoy the next couple of games any less. So it's been a great tournament. Monday was an epic day with Spain, Croatia and France, Switzerland. I mean, sports doesn't get better than those five hours. Well, yeah, like, what was that like for you? Because you are between the two of us, obviously, the big soccer slash football fan. And I got excited observing people being excited. So I can't imagine what that would be like for people who actually really care about this stuff and really enjoy it. That must have been just absurd that whole day. Yeah, the whole day was great. I mean, I wanted to watch Spain, Croatia. I had over two and a half goals. So watched it with pretty, you know, and I like Spain a lot. I mean, definitely an over team with the way I see their numbers and their second best offensive team in the world when I run my numbers. And what, oh, there was a crazy own goal that happened right in the first half. Like, so the Spanish defender kicks it back to his keeper and he just completely flubs it. And the ball goes into the net. Well, nothing, Croatia. And Spain ended up scoring twice. So I'm like, oh, great, over 2-1. So it's 2-1 Spain in about the 70th minute. And I was like, all right, well, I wanna watch part of the later game and I got a phone call in a sec here. So I'm gonna go for my run now. So I leave, come back to see that the final was Spain 5-3 in extra time. Yeah. Which is just nuts. Spain ended up scoring again. Croatia scored twice in regulation. Spain scored twice in extra time. Just insane. Like, that doesn't really happen ever. And then I had a phone call then come back in, see that Switzerland's up 1-0 at halftime, turn it on a little bit after that. And France was the betting favorite, right? And rightfully so with the way they played and with their background. And Switzerland was up 1-0. They have a penalty kick as soon as I turn it on. And so Switzerland's looking great. Switzerland gets stoned on the penalty kick and then France does France things and scores three gorgeous goals in the span of, I don't know, 10 minutes and they're up 3-1. And it looks absolutely over the other way. And then, you know, my older son came down and we started talking about, I forget what it was, we started talking about something. But then Switzerland scores. I was like, oh no, no, no, stop. No, we're not now, conversation later, not now. So, you know, he goes back upstairs and then Switzerland scores again and it's 3-3 at the end of regulation. They go to penalty kicks. Yeah, just a wild day. No, so in the penalty kicks, if you're a soccer fan, I understand if you hate penalty kicks as a way of deciding a match. That's, you know, you played 120 minutes of soccer and now you're gonna go to some completely other way of determining the outcome of a match. But it makes a hero and a goat really quickly. So in the penalty shootout, the first nine guys make the penalty. The 10th guy is killing it on Bapé, which might be the one soccer player that you've heard of, right? The French superstar helped them win the World Cup. He gets stoned on the 10th penalty kick and it's over. Man. And, you know, Swiss keeper is the goat. Sorry, the hero and Bapé is the goat. And yeah, it was just, it was, it was, it was a soul lifting afternoon as I tried to tell my kids. Yeah, I mean, think about where we were a year ago, where it was just golf and NASCAR going on. There was no basketball back yet, no baseball back yet. And it was crazy to have that much excitement on my Twitter timeline, which is great. So all in favor of that, it was a lot of fun to observe as an outsider. And I'm excited to watch these games, these matches, I should say, this weekend. We got four big ones coming up. We're gonna preview those with Alex Heinerd. You can find his game previews for each week up at numberfire.com. He is on Twitter at A. Heinerd, midco SN. We're gonna talk through all four matches, break down those, plus the current futures market. And before we go back through last week, Ed, you were talking before that we started taping about how you've been betting a lot of totals in Euro 2020. And why is that? Why have you found success there specifically this year? I think part of it is Rob Pizzola was tweeting about how much money Pinnacle was taking on sides. And I'm like, okay, let me try to do something else. And I wrote some code to take the same numbers that I have and look at totals. And yeah, no, I mean, it's gone pretty well. It might be small sample size, but we'll see. You know, I was thinking about talking to Spain. I have spain over in their match against Switzerland. My numbers liked it. I was gonna talk about it, but I don't think there's any more value in it. I got a much better price a couple of days ago. And then, so yeah, just trying it out. I mean, like I said, it might be noise, but... Hey. You know, it's also occurred to me that I really enjoy this international soccer bit. And I'm gonna keep these numbers updated and keep doing these calculations through work called qualifying. You know what I mean? Basically through any match that you know that there's no motivational issues for either team, which are the major tournaments and work called qualifying as well. So I'll be probably talking about this more, more than I have, which I guess has been nothing, but I will be talking about it more over the next year. But what better motivator for like updating your numbers and your site than wanting to bet it yourself individually? So, you know, that's a great motivator for me for a lot of stuff. That's why I wanted to build out my NFL win total market. The exact same thing. So our own motivations making our work better, which is always a delight for sure. We get to Alex here in just a bit, but first we have to go back to two weeks ago. We didn't have a show last week. Gotta go back to two weeks, talk some golf and talk some NASCAR for covering the past. Covering the past. So before we run break, you were talking golf for the US Open and I was on NASCAR and your bet was Joaquin Neiman to finish top 20 at the US Open and all Joaquin gave it a good run. He gained 3.2 strokes off the tee and 3.9 an approach. So the ball striking as always with Joaquin Neiman was great. The short game had been getting better recently for him, specifically the putting. He'd been doing really well there, but the short game bit him at the open. He lost one around the green in 1.1 putting. That was the first time he had lost strokes putting since February. So just bad luck, whether it be regression, and it's actually not, I think that was a bank grass, but not a bad surface for him either. He finished 31st. So couple strokes away from the Neiman top 20 and I think with the ball striking where it was, it was a good bet. Just didn't have the short game break in your favor there. Yeah, no, it was a little bit of a bummer. I lost a couple head to heads with Neiman before by a couple strokes as well. So he'll come through one of these days. Hopefully, because I know both you and Brandon and we've had Collin on, they all seem to be Neiman fans. So for the financial well-being of covering the spread, we have to cheer for Joaquin Neiman. We also cheer for Joey Logano, who I was on for the podium at Nashville. Started off really well. He actually qualified third for that race, despite not having a ton of speed and practice on Saturday. He just couldn't quite hold that speed the entire race. His average running position was eighth and you can finish top three with an eighth place average running position. So he had a good car, but he finished 10th, no cashing there. They are back at a road course this week. I'd be in on Logano again, but they've kind of shortened his odds. He's 12 to one for this week, which tells me that people are finally buying to Logano. So if you wanna look at some road course numbers this week, Denny Hamlin is 19 to one at some books, which seems outrageous to me. He's 14 at Fandall Sportsbook. I would consider it there too, but if you can get 19 to one at Denny Hamlin, I think I'd check that one out. But no Logano podium at Nashville, so we move on to this week and I'll be talking baseball and covering the future for this week, which we'll get to in just a bit, but first, hey, basketball fans, the NBA conference finals about to wrap up. We still have the finals as well. Fandall is offering a special new user bonus. Place a bet on any single team's money line and you will receive exclusive 30 to one odds for that wager. All you have to do is head over to the Fandall Sportsbook, create an account and take advantage of this amazing NBA playoff odds boost. Maximum bet of $5 must be 21 plus in, and present in Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. New users only, $10 first deposit required, max bonus is $150. Restrictions apply, see full terms at sportsbook.fandall.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER in Colorado, 1-800-522-4700 in Iowa, 1-800-Bets-Off in Indiana, 1-800-9 with it for confidential help in Michigan, 1-800-270-7117 in Tennessee, call the red line, 1-800-889-9789 or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-GAMBLER.NET. Let's get set now for the quarterfinals of Euro 2020 by talking with Alex Heineert, find his work up at numberfire.com and check him out on Twitter at A.Heineert, midcoSN. We're gonna talk about all four matches in the futures market for the European Championship. Covering the present. Let's bring Alex Heineert back into covering the spread once again to talk some Euro 2020 and Alex wild times for you because you just became a father for the third time on Monday and yet you are still here talking to us. How are you doing? I'm doing great, Jim. Thanks for asking. Multitasking, just trying to keep the baby going and keeping the family moving forward in the right direction. My wife's amazing, which has made all this possible to be able to keep up with an international soccer tournament while she's been nine months pregnant and dealing with two toddlers as well. But it's been a ton of fun and I'm really happy to be joining you and happy to announce that mom and baby are both doing great. Well, fantastic. Congratulations. And you said that you and your wife were actually watching matches the morning after in the hospital as well? Yeah, the day of. So it worked out great. Our son, Henry, was born on Monday and this was the same day. This is the craziest day really in European football championship history where you had Spain and Croatia in the morning in France and the Swiss in the afternoon. And the little guy was nice. He waited till about six o'clock central time that night to be born. So we got a chance to get through penalties with France in Switzerland before we decided to arrive. And then yeah, it was it was great to have something on in the background as we were just kind of waiting and hanging out and ready to go and getting ready for labor. So good timing on his part for short. Well, it is good to know he is considerate already in this young age. He is considerate, considerate of you and your time. But again, congratulations. I am glad here. Everyone is doing well. And you mentioned that you've been able to pay attention throughout all this. Has it been weird for you to juggle everything going on, but also like it feels like this has been kind of a crazy tournament so far. It's been a really fun tournament. I think the biggest thing for me at least watching it is just it's been so long since we've had one of these. I mean, we haven't had a major international soccer tournament since the Women's World Cup of 2019. You know, the Men's World Cup of 2018. Normally these things happen every summer. And so we missed, obviously, it all last year. And it's just been fun. I mean, great drama really from the start at a very emotional tournament when you factor in Denmark and the storyline with Christian Eriksen, which we're going to get to. But the games themselves have been outstanding. Nearly three goals per match. The the Euros are unique where you've got 24 teams. So you get the top two teams in each group plus the four best third place teams advance. So there doesn't always involve a lot of jeopardy in the group stage matches. You can kind of feel like, well, the good teams are all going through for sure. And even some of the mediocre teams are going to make it as well to the knockout stages. But we had great drama really at the end of the group stages and certainly in the knockout rounds. I mean, unbelievable round of 16 matches up and down. And it's produced a few surprises as well. So let's talk about some of those surprises. And I want to start things off here broad, Alex. And we'll talk about specific teams in a second, but you've been doing these game previews for Number Fire throughout the tournament. And obviously to start things off, you need some sort of prior going in. What you're expecting to happen for the tournament as a whole, what has been different from your expectation going in for the tournament as a whole from what you thought initially? Well, I think through the group stage, we didn't see a ton of major shocks. A lot of the favorites progressed, almost all the favorites really progressed to the knockout round. Again, of the 16 teams that advanced in the little bracket that I filled up beforehand, like 14 teams that I expected to make it did and made it through without a lot of sweating, nervous energy at the very end. Turkey really was the only surprise who a lot of people picked maybe as a dark horse to win the whole thing. And they didn't win a single match or collect a single point in group A and looked pretty poor. But everything else really played out according to form. Once we got to the round of 16 though, it became a coin flip and a lot of these knockout games are again, it's 90 minutes and anything can happen in low-scoring events like soccer. And of the eight games, really only five of the favorites made it through. And we had three pretty big offsets with the Czech Republic beating the Dutch. We have Ukraine beating Sweden, which wasn't a massive upset, but still Sweden had won their group. That was a bit of a surprise as poorly as Ukraine had looked in the group stage. And then, now I'm blanking as all these matches go through. Sorry. Who was the other one? I'm sorry, gosh, the biggest upset of all, Switzerland beating the pre-tournament favorites France, which was a huge upset. So, and there were a couple that also could have kind of gone either way when you look at extra time and for the matches, Austria nearly beating Italy, who had looked like the best team in the tournament. So it was just a little reminder that if you were heavy on the favorites in the group stage, that strategy didn't necessarily pay off when you got to the knockout rounds. And we'll see now if that will carry on as we go into the quarterfinals and beyonds. Yeah, absolutely. So we have eight teams left in the field. So which one are kind of exceeding your pre-tournament expectations and which ones do you expect some regression for? Well, I think if you looked pre-tournament, I mean, you could really break it down into tiers. And we already mentioned, France was obviously in that top tier as the pre-tournament favorite. Belgium was certainly there. Italy was certainly there. Those two have made it onto the quarterfinals and now they're gonna play each other. So one of those big favorites is gonna get knocked off. England was in that top tier as well. And then the rest of these teams now that we have left, Denmark was the number 10 team in the FIFA ranking. So they were expected to compete and maybe be a dark horse in this tournament, but they were probably in a tier below that top group. And then you look at a team like the Swiss who were in the teams, but most people expected them to maybe make the round of 16 and then immediately get bounced by one of the big dogs. So the fact they've moved on is a big surprise. The Czech Republic was the 40th ranked team in the world coming in. And I think people thought, you know, they've got some good players. They've got some Premier League players and Thomas Suchek of West Ham and Patrick Schick is a well-known striker from the Bundesliga who plays for Bayern Leverkusen. But I don't think people expected them to make it to the quarterfinals. And now they've got a great chance to maybe progress a little bit farther. The Ukraine as well. I mean, that's a team that not a lot of people expected much of and they didn't look great in the group stage. And here they are now with a shot against England at a neutral site. So it's hard to say who we think is gonna get too much farther out of that group because again on paper and if you look statistically, the favorites should have the edge in these quarterfinal games. And you would kind of think the road is gonna come to an end for the Swiss and for the Czechs and for Ukraine. But as the round of 16 proved, you just have no idea. You never know when situations like this pop up. So we're gonna find out over this weekend who's gonna keep moving on and who will keep that Cinderella dream alive going here in Euro 2020 being played in 2021. Well, I'm curious how much has the round of 16 kind of shaken your confidence level in trying to predict these matches that there's been that much chaos there? I feel like it's hard to expect things to stable out, especially if you've seen some of the teams you would have expected to roll in the quarterfinals no longer in the field. It certainly gives you pause. It makes you kind of question the data that you've compiled a little bit. I know the, even the eye test too. I mean soccer, there just aren't a ton of metrics that you can really look at and say, okay, this is a great predicator of success. Even like expected goals, which has become a much more common thing to look at and say, okay, maybe you didn't get lucky on the day, but what were you expected to score? What chances did you create? What chances did you concede at the other end? Even expected goals hasn't really met much in this tournament. And you look at teams that have been really good in the group stage and then just didn't show up in the round of 16. So when you look and you break things down and even eye test wise, you think, well, the Swiss looked so bad against Italy and that's been the best team they've played before. They're gonna get killed by France and that obviously wasn't the case. They ended up winning in penalties and played really well and they've won that game outright. Ed, you were talking, I mean, you were watching that match and they're up one nothing and have a penalty kick and they're ready to go up two nothing. And all of a sudden now they're down three one, but then they fight back and then they force extra time. You just don't know. And so, looking at this on paper, all of these matchups feature, I mean, at least one team that's fairly favored that you could probably call the Czech Republic and Denmark maybe a little bit more of a coin flip, but you would expect Spain to go through, you would expect Italy to as well with Belgium being so banged up. You would expect the Danes to move on and same thing with England, but the confidence level is not super high and the odds, because the odds are what they are, that sort of reflects me with the direction you should go in looking toward. Well, it's close. This is an unpredictable tournament. Maybe just taking where the best value is is the best way to move forward if you want to back someone in these matches. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, I do think that is definitely the approach. Like looking at prices, especially since I've seen some pretty weird ones on some of the books these past couple of days. Let's start with the two Friday matches. We have Switzerland versus Spain. No, actually, no. Let's start with Belgium versus Italy. These are two teams that really could meet. I mean, are really, you could think of them as meeting in the final. We obviously have some huge injury situations with looks unlikely that Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard will play for Belgium. Let's talk about that game. What do you see? What's a great matchup? And obviously if those two players were healthy, this becomes a true coin flip because you've got Belgium as the world number one with this golden generation that is coming off a third place finish at the 2018 World Cup. And they've been gearing towards this for a while now, really. Like they've never won a major international trophy. And this is the group that is talented enough and cohesive enough to get it done. But if they're two best players essentially outside of Ramelu Lukaku, maybe is their best informed player right now, are both gonna probably miss this game De Bruyne with that ankle injury that he suffered in the round of 16 match against Portugal and then Eden Hazard who didn't start the turn and De Bruyne didn't either by the way because he had broken his face in the Champions League final against Chelsea. But Hazard had been hurt for much of the year with Real Madrid was slowly working his way back in the form in this tournament and looked really good the previous two matches. But he goes out at the end of that game in the round of 16 with the hamstring pull it looked like. So the fact that those two guys are out now gives a big edge to Italy. Italy have never lost to Belgium in a competitive match. They are on a 31 game on beaten streak. They've only allowed one goal one in their last 12 competitive matches, which is crazy. And that was of course last game against Austria and that was a late last pass goal in extra time to make that game two to one. But all the numbers would say Italy is gonna be the team to move on here. They've become kind of the hot favorites. They looked great in the group stage. A lot of those games are played at home though. And that's kind of one of the other wrinkles about this tournament is that in the group stage a lot of the favorites were playing in front of home crowds. Even if they weren't full stadiums certainly the Danes, certainly the Dutch obviously Italy, England, Germany to a lesser extent but they're all playing at home. And now here they've come to the knockout stages and outside of England everybody's on the road all of a sudden. So even though Italy won't be playing in Rome in front of their crowd at the Sadio Olympico based on Belgium's recent struggles with injury they probably are the pick. But it should be noted Belgium was without Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne for their opener against Russia and they looked pretty good in that match on that game. I believe three-nil going away. And that was Russia. So that was Russia, exactly. That was Russia. Yeah. So I really like this team. They're like the top team by my numbers that I run and you obviously had issues because you didn't know whether Hazard and De Bruyne would play and then they got in that second game against Denmark and Denmark really took it to them and really outplayed them for most of the first half. They put De Bruyne in in the second half. He is just magical in scoring, orchestrating the first goal and then scoring the second goal. And then Hazard's actually playing. And so I actually have some Belgian futures because of that. I just believing in my numbers and seeing that those guys were out on the field and just seeing how talented they are on the offensive side of the ball. And I think a lot of people would agree that fully healthy, like that's the best offensive team in this tournament. Of course, now the injury issues. I think they're really relying on somewhat old defense to kind of hold down Italy and then maybe a moment of magic from Lukaku. But I think the markets have it right. And my numbers are gonna be off because of those pretty big injuries. And there's, I think that's it. There's value. I mean, this is a team that is really good and deep and it's not like they're gonna be throwing on guys who are playing in the second tier of some of these leagues. I mean, they're throwing on Janet Carrasco and Dries Mertens, who's one of the better players in Italy to replace those two guys. So the fact that they're plus 240 in this game, it's conceivable certainly that they can hang with Italy. They've only allowed one goal all tournament. Thibaut Courtois, great in goal. It's not out of the question. I mean, this is a really talented team. But again, you'd feel a lot better about it if they had the brunette hazard in this game. Massive testament to them to have it be competitive despite missing those two guys. Let's talk Switzerland, Spain. Spain, one of the more favorite teams you alluded to before. What do you see for this one, the other game on Friday? This is, so this Spain team, unless let's start there. Spain entering this tournament was, you know, a top 10 team in FIFA, obviously they, you know, not too far removed from winning the Euros in 2008, 2012 and with the World Cup championship sandwiched in between. That generation, of course, is retired now and this is a new group of Spanish players and this team was kind of in a mess entering these European championships with Sergio Busquets, their captain testing positive for COVID right before the tournament. The entire team had to isolate, they were training individually. The entire team was vaccinated a day before the tournament was gonna kick off by the Spanish Army. Like just a lot of different stuff going on within that group that kind of made you question a little bit, like how, how's this gonna go when they actually start playing? And then they drew against Sweden when they had 85% possession and I don't know, how many, I mean, chance after chance after chance that they just couldn't quite convert. And then they drew against Poland in the next round. And it just seemed like this is a team that's just gonna fail. The offense isn't there. They don't have any confidence ahead of goal. And now in the last two matches, they've scored 10 goals. They scored five against Slovakia, who was pretty terrible. And then put five up against Croatia and obviously an extra time match. And it seems like they've started to figure things out. Go ahead. I was just gonna say, it's actually 11 goals if you count the goof by their keeper, right? So on the own goal, but yeah, it's been an explosion. Yeah, so now, I mean, you have to look at this team and they're completely different lights. And this is a Spanish team that, again, for all the talk about how they couldn't score. Again, now they lead the tournament in that metric. And they've been pretty good defensively outside of that crazy final 10 minutes against Croatia in the round of 16. They've been pretty solid. And so, I mean, this is a team that leads the tournament in possession. They lead the tournament in shots on goal. They lead the tournament in shot attempts. They're also joint leaders in fewer shots per game allowed. So they've been, as they always do, in control of the ball from start to finish in these games and mostly in control of the match. And now they get a Swiss team who is kind of on the opposite end. The numbers aren't very kind to Switzerland. Remember, they were blown out three-nothing by Italy in the second game of their group. Obviously, they had a great morale-boosting, incredible win against France to get them into the quarterfinals of any major tournament for the first time in their history, just at first blood. And now they're, but again, the Swiss are missing their captain now. Granite Jock is out because of yellow card accumulation. So they lose an Arsenal midfielder from the heart of that team. And one of their big motivational leaders who was so key in winning that game against France, they've gotten some good contributions from guys that they've maybe relied upon in the past, like Severovich up top who just is a big striker that just can't seem to score, but then he had a huge goal against France and now has three for the tournament. You know, Jordan Securi's been playing well. So they're obviously gonna have a shot in this game, but for them, it's gonna be how well can we defend? Can we hit Spain on the counter? And can we get lucky against the team that we only have one competitive win against in our history, albeit that was at a World Cup and that was in 2010. The last time they played in a competitive match, they won one-nothing. The only time Spain lost in that tournament in South Africa before Spain went on to win the whole thing. So again, on paper, numbers-wise, should be an easy Spain victory, but these games aren't played on paper as we've seen over the course of this tournament. Let's head over to what I'm calling the England side of the bracket. They play Ukraine. I mean, basically what Tuesday was the best possible outcome for England in beating the Germans and then getting Ukrainians instead of Sweden, not that they wouldn't have been favored against Sweden, they would have, but and they are actually away from home for the first time in this entire tournament and will be for the first time, even if they make it to the final because the last three games are all in London. So what are you seeing in this game? Again, this is another one. This is obviously the one that has the biggest gap in odds. I think Ukraine is plus 700 right now for this match. England is minus 260. I mean, Ukraine is a huge underdog, and they were the, for good reason, based on what we've seen in this tournament, this was a Ukraine scene that barely got in. They needed help on the last day from Sweden to sneak in as the last place, or the lowest ranking third place team to make it. So they were number 16 of 16 in the round of 16, but they're talented. They've got some game changing type players with Zenshenko, who's a man city left-back who's been playing in midfield for this team over the course of the tournament. Yarmolenko for West Ham has been great. Obviously he has one thing that he does really well, but he's got one of the best left feet in the world, and we've seen that over the course of this tournament. And they've been able to make things happen out of moments of magic. And we saw that against Sweden. Again, a last-gast winner in the, what, the 121st minute of the game, the latest game-winning goal in Euro history. They looked awful against Austria in a game. They really needed to win the final game of the group stage to move on. And I think that sort of threw everybody off their scent. They didn't play great against North Macedonia. They won 2-0 in that game. And against the Dutch, their first game, they lost three to two. They had a great comeback in that game, but they didn't really do much outside of the two goals that they scored in that game. So I think most people expected them to fall out to Sweden, didn't work out that way. Now they get England. And there's a little whiff among some people of, is this 2016 England against Iceland all over again? Where England might be overlooking this team and already kind of penciling themselves in to the next rounds. However, this England team has actually looked good in this tournament. And that 2016 version really did not over the course of their group stage. And so the fact that England has not conceded a single goal in this tournament, they're the only team to do so, so far. They have not scored a ton, but they've gotten contributions now from Raheem Sterling who's got three of their goals. Harry Kane finally scored. That's gotta give them a little bit of a boost. And it just feels like Gareth Southgate has figured out the right buttons to push for this team. And they are gonna play pragmatic. They are not gonna give up a lot at the opposite ends. Ukraine is a team that is sort of used to seeding possession and then again, trying to get the ball to their playmakers and make something happen. An account of attack situation or in a set piece, but England I think are gonna be prepared for that. And even though they'll be playing in Rome and not at Wembley, there's a reason why England is this big of a favorite to move on, not just in this game, but to go all the way in this tournament. There are some concerns of course, and you wish they had scored maybe just a little bit more in a group that really wasn't all that impressive, but in this matchup with all of their talents and the fact that they're defensively solid. And you go back to this, defensive solidity typically equals results in these big tournaments. It's been proven over the years. This is the best defensive team, at least on paper. Here at these Euros, they should have a great chance to move on. So if they move on, they'd face either Denmark or the Czech Republic. And you mentioned that this is kind of the toss up of this round. Denmark right now plus 110, Czech Republic plus 280. What's your read on this match overall? Well, this is a case where you've got a little bit like the Spain-Switzerland game, where you've got a Denmark team that, for obvious reasons, again, their star player Christian Eriksen has a cardiac arrest on fields in the middle of their first match of the tournament against Finland, that threw their tournament into chaos. And again, if you watch that match, I mean, just as a spectator watching on TV, that was emotionally difficult, to see someone who you think, what is happening with this person's life? And for his teammates to be on the field with him, guys that have played with him since he was probably six, seven, eight years old. I mean, guys that know him intimately, that's got to be difficult to overcome. And so it was no surprise they lose to Finland once that match was resumed later in the evening after Christian was deemed okay and was back in hospital. And then they go out the next match and they got to play Belgium. And as Ed mentioned, spirited game against Belgium. They gave them everything they had. They score early, but there was a Belgium team in full flow and they lose 2-1. And then the last two matches, they have just turned it on and they look like a different team. They scored four against Russia in one of the best games of the tournament. I mean, emotionally and just a thrilling game where you just will that team to win and to find a way. And they did in front of their home crowd and so they scored four in that match. And then they put up four in their last match, the round of 16 game against Wales. And it looked fantastic in that game. And they just seemed to be this team of destiny. A lot like they were in 1992 when they won the whole thing as a team that hadn't even qualified for the tournament, but got called into action because Yugoslavia had to pull out because their country was going through a, not a civil war, but they were splitting essentially. This was the velvet divorce that was happening. Denmark gets called in at the last minute and they end up winning the whole thing. There's a whiff of that with this Danish team. And now they get the Czechs who have been pretty good at the back. They've only allowed two goals, all tournament, one to Croatia and one to Englands. The Czech Republic was really benefited from a red card midway through their round of 16 game against the Dutch, but they still won that game convincingly. One of the areas where I think this game might be swung, so the Czechs have had success through the air. Patrick Schick is a big striker. They've got a lot of big defensemen. They're good at set pieces. That's how they scored their first goal against the Dutch. They've used that to their advantage over the course of this tournament. However, if you look at some of the metrics about aerials won and just sheer height across the lineup, the Danes are actually better than the Czechs are in the air. And so given the momentum that Danish are going to have going into this match and the fact that they're probably a better team at the top to bottom, you think maybe even though this is a little more even, you think Danes, the favorites will probably move on based on some of those things. But if you're ever going to look at a draw, this certainly could be it where both teams might stick in and just see how this plays out in a very tight, sort of a nil-nil one-one type game that might have to go into extra time. Yeah, I'm actually a pretty big fan of Denmark. My numbers really like them. I think they played really well after the Finland game. You look at the talent they have on that side, even without Ericsson. It's pretty overwhelming. But let's talk about England. I mean, there's a reason I call it the England side of the bracket because they don't get Spain, Belgium or Italy. They're currently the favorite at plus 175. Semifinals and finals are at Wembley. Do you like that number or is there anything else in the outright number, outright market that you're looking at right now? Well, it certainly seems like that that would be the team. Who's the obvious choice? I mean, to be able to go all the way. And the certainly road lines up pretty well. They obviously already, if, for example, they get through Ukraine, they would either play a check team, who they beat and beat pretty convincingly, even though it was only one-nothing. They looked good in that match in the group stage or against the Denmark team that again, at this point of the tournament, maybe you're kind of running on emotional fumes. It's been such a crazy month for them. England would be the pick, certainly in that contest as well. But I think, again, if you're looking at value and you're thinking about other teams who at least have a shot to do something. We talked about Spain, how they're hot right now. They have a tough road, of course, but you'd expect them to at least make it to the semis with the win against the Swiss. And then maybe a tough matchup, certainly against Italy or Belgium. You know, Italy at plus 430 at the moment looks good. We talked a lot about Belgium and how that is a team that on paper is a lot better than a plus 650 to win the whole thing. And if you wanted something of value, let's say, for example, that Belgium can find a way to get past Italy here in the quarterfinals. Now they get another handful of days to get De Bruyne and Hazard back. You'd liken their chance against Spain with a full team. And then you'd probably like their chances against England if it works out that way. They beat England in that third place game in 2018 in the World Cup. Belgium is the most talented team in this tournament when fully fit. And right now they're the fourth favorite to win the whole thing. That to me would be, if you wanted to make, again, understanding that they could certainly crash out this next round, they're not at full strength. And we talked about all the reasons why Italy are favorites in that game. But if you wanted value, that's a team that you should certainly look at to at least think about investing and moving forward. No, I mean, I completely agree with that. I mean, the Belgium odds have been pretty interesting because they didn't really move after De Bruyne and Hazard were playing in that second game. And that's when I grabbed some stuff. And then they actually moved, I got it at plus 650. I think I hit it again at plus 700. And then they end up on the side of death in the round of 16. And I think the odds went like way up. I mean, I don't know if they were 10-9 to one or something like that. So it's been interesting. And then you win a game, not their best game against Portugal, but they got through and now their odds are back to plus 650. Yeah, you just, if you're doing that, you're hoping they're healthy, which they're not right now. So we'll see how that goes. It's not just the outrides. We've got a lot of other markets here for the rest of Euro 2020. We've got top scorer. We've got top scoring team, all that stuff. Alex, any value for you in those markets right now? Well, the golden boot one is always fun. I mean, Cristiano Ronaldo right now is the favorite and he's leading the way with five goals. But obviously he's done. Portugal got bounced in the round of 16. Patrick Schick, who we talked about at the Czech Republic has four. But again, you're sort of projecting them to maybe lose here this next round. So that makes you think, who's next in line? And there are a number of guys that we project to move ahead that have scored three. And the odds are pretty good on some of those guys. I mean, the next group would be Romelu Lukaku and Raheem Sterling of Belgium and England respectively. And then you look at Harry Kane, who's like 20 to one right now. And Kane's only scored once, but if you really want to value play, and anytime you look at these sorts of deals, you want to find out who's taking the penalties for these teams and how long are these teams going to be playing. And if you think about England, maybe playing three more games, Kane takes the penalties for the three lines. And that's why he was the favorite to win the golden boot going in. Again, you don't love how he's played so far. He's not looked great. It's not been pretty, but this is a guy who is going to get opportunity. He's going to be in the starting lineup as their number nine for every match that they play. So if you really want to try something that's a little more off the table at 20 to one, Harry Kane would be a decent option, even though he's really got a score. He's got to average more than a goal per game over the final three if they make it all the way. I mean, to me, we just talked about Belgium. Lukaku would be a great picker. Again, all he's got to do is score twice and equals Ronaldo. And if they can make a little bit of a run, he's the third, you know, he's right now third right now in terms of odds. That's not the worst idea. If you really wanted to move down the list, Spain has a chance to make the final. And if you want to play it out and think, well, maybe Italy and Belgium will really beat each other up in that quarter-final match. Spain moves on past Switzerland pretty easily. They get a banged up Italy or Belgium in the semis and they move on to the championship. Maybe Ferran Torres who scored a couple of times. Maybe Alvaro Morata who scored twice. Maybe those would be decent options at 50 to one or whatever they are right now. But Spain to me has always been like a running back by committee where you just don't know who's gonna score. They've scored 11 goals again in this tournament, but six different guys have scored and nobody has scored more than two. So there's a lot more of dart throwing when it comes to those guys. But the upsides there, really high ceiling for that Spanish team that will face a Swiss team that has given up eight goals in this tournament, the joint most of anybody, goals will probably flow in that quarter-final match and you'll hope they flow for your guy if you pick either Morata or Pedra or Serabi or any of those guys who are really far down the list. No, I like that. I mean, even coming into this tournament, Spain was the second-best offensive team when I look at numbers over the past four and a half years. So they have guys that can score. You just hope, like you said, it's your guy. I love the thought process of any market that requires some assumptions and some correlated stuff like that. So all on board for that. That is Alex Heinert. Make sure you check him out on numberfire.com. Follow him on Twitter as well at a HeinertMidcoSN. Alex, congratulations once again on the new Sun. We appreciate the time today. Go get some sleep if you can and good luck and have fun watching the matches this weekend. No, thanks so much. Thanks, Jim. I appreciate you guys. Take care. Covering the future. Big thank you one more time to Alex Heinert for swinging by and breaking down this weekend's matches for Euro 2020. And Ed, when we were talking to Alex, you mentioned Denmark and a team that it sounds like your numbers like. They faced the Czech Republic for this week. What are you seeing for that match? Yeah, I mean, as I mentioned before, like, you know, Denmark, they clearly didn't play well in the first game. They lose Ericsson. They lose to, I believe it was Finland, but they've actually played really well since then. They put a ton of pressure on Belgium. They were clearly the better side for a big portion of that match before Belgium brought in their stars and they were able to convert. Really, really impressive in dispatching with a good Wales team in the round of 16. My numbers really like them. My numbers really also do not like the Czech Republic. And from what I've seen of them in this tournament, especially versus England, they're not particularly good. So I do think there's a little bit of value in Denmark. My numbers give them a 58% chance to win in regulation. I believe a price you can get right now at Vanduul, I think was like plus 105 for that. So, you know, when you think about Denmark, the narrative is they lost their best player and Christian Ericsson is their best player. But, you know, Mike Goodman was on my podcast. He's a soccer analytics expert. He's a senior soccer editor over at CBS. And he talked about, well, if you just kind of close your eyes and look at the rest of this roster, there's a lot of players that play on high-end club teams on this Denmark roster. And it's not a surprise that they were playing well. And I don't see the Czech Republic advancing. I think Denmark, I really like them to get by. And then we'll see what they can do against England at Wembley. So you have Denmark plus 110 versus the Czech Republic here. That's the way you're leaning? Oh, yeah, for sure. I bet that. I forget what price I got, but like, yeah. You know, my numbers have it at 58%. All my numbers are posted at thepowerrank.com. So you should be able to find it on the blog. And you can check out my international soccer rankings as well. Okay, find those over at thepowerrank.com. And I guess we are all in on Denmark for this weekend, both Alex and you, leaning towards them. From my cover of the future on talks and baseball, I have been staying out of the World Series market because I had a Padres ticket, and it seemed like either they or the Dodgers were just gonna slug it out in the NL and then whoever won there would win the whole thing. That's what my numbers said preseason, hasn't quite played out that way for San Diego thus far, but I've been staying away from that market as a result of that. It seems now though, like the Astros are entering that top tier in baseball. And I like them at plus 650 to win the World Series right now. I liked the Astros to win the West, the American League West before the season, but I was questioning their upside because of their pitching. The staff had a lot of question marks and the starting rotation. I didn't know if they would compete in the playoff format because pitching matters so much there. And I was skeptical, but they've been really good there recently. And they've been good even with the sticky stuff discussion going on. We've seen guys like Hussier Keady who just went on the injured list, but before that getting hurt was pitching really well. A changeup movement was back for him. I was super encouraged by what he was doing previously. He did go on the IL, like yesterday, but it doesn't sound like a season ender for him with his shoulder. I would expect him back at some point into pitch pretty well, both Luis Garcia and Fembre Valdez. Really good peripheral numbers for them. So I have fewer concerns about the pitching now than I had before. And the offense is just lethal. So if they can get decent pitching, they're gonna be a fourth. Their active roster leads the league in WRC Plus against both righties and lefties. Overall, they have a 123 WRC Plus. Nobody else in baseball is higher than 113. It's a massive gap. So I would bet that this Houston team at some point before the trade deadline bolsters their pitching staff. And if they do that, they could go back to being an unstoppable team. I could just go with the American League market on this team, but I think there is good value on them because they've been playing so well, being the same tier as the Dodgers in the Padres. So I actually do think that the best market for the Astros right now is to check out the outright market for the World Series, plus 650 over a Fandall Sportsbook. I do like Houston there. And I think that they are a team we'll be talking a lot about as we get closer to October. Ed, I know you've got some baseball stuff as well. What are your numbers saying about Houston right now? Yeah, I mean, I love Houston. When you look at base runs there are essentially expected runs run stripping out the cluster luck and adjusting for opponent. I mean, Houston's almost a run and a half better than the average MLB team. And that's a lot, right? So like, you know, the Dodgers are like 1.1 run better than the average MLB team. So yeah, I mean, it clearly likes Houston as well. And yeah, sports what you're saying. So we are all in on Denmark, all in on Houston. We'll see how things break there for sure. That is all that we have here for today on Covering the Spread. Big thank you once again to Alex Heinerth. Check him out on Twitter at A.HeinerthMidcoSN and check out his previous for Euro 2020 up on NumberFire.com. Thank you to Alex and congratulations to him and his wife once again for the birth of their son. Ed, what is going on for you this week over at the PowerRank? Yeah, a ton of stuff. Sign up for my free email newsletter, data-driven betting information. Check that out at thepowerrank.com. I have Mike Goodman, senior soccer editor at CBS and co-host of the Double Pivot podcast. Basically one of the best people in the world to talk about Euro and soccer analytics. So we did that over at the Football Analytics Show. Check that out. And then a lot of Euro predictions over on my site at thepowerrank.com. I definitely have all of your numbers for quarterfinals. And then I actually talked about England versus Ukraine in a separate post. Just check out the blog over at thepowerrank.com. And the podcast is the Football Analytics Show. Search for that wherever you get your podcasts. Ed is on Twitter, I am, or at the PowerRank. I am at Jim Sonnis. J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the FanDuel Podcast Network at FanDuel Podcast. Big thank you to Calvin Theobald, our video producer for running the video side of things here today. Thank you, Cal, as always. And thank you to everyone for tuning in. Good luck to you with your bets for Euro 2020. Enjoy the matches this weekend. We'll talk to you all once again next week. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network. Aaron Dolan here. Thanks for watching and make sure you click below on that subscribe button for more great FanDuel content and check out some of our latest uploads and playlists right over here.