 What's up navigation traders happy Friday today is Friday, February 1st Welcome to this week's video update. This is a weekly update. We do for pro members Exclusively so welcome here Before we jump into a review of this week's trade alerts. Just want to recognize our Member for getting recognized for who got caught being hot in the community Helping other traders is what it's all about Mike Tishner was this week's winner and my kid has become very active in the community answering some other members questions and posting Some different trade ideas some trade alerts Mainly around earnings announcements, which has been pretty cool to see what he's doing there And so if you haven't checked that out in the community this week Make sure you go back and check out some of Mike's posts Congrats Mike. You got caught being hot So let's jump over actually before we jump into the alerts. I also want to point out I'm gonna be doing a separate video like I do at the end of every month Where I recap all the trades all the closed trades and that's really for the public and Because because the public they're not pro members so they don't get access to our current open positions So I'll be doing a separate video just to go over the closed trades But they give you guys a quick recap 11 closed trades nine of which were winners a little over $1,500 in Profits so that starts off January by the way this this new thing at the top of the performance page It is clickable so you can click it and expand it. I know it's kind of small So it expands when you do click that so you can check that out and Let's jump in to the platform and let's do a quick recap of where we're at year-to-date Because as I mentioned I want to I want to kind of keep you guys a little bit more up-to-date on where we are with the overall portfolio And so this is year-to-date and this shows You know all the different positions that we've had on or traded in 2019 To give you an idea of where we're at So just to give you an idea on 6b overall we're up 150 bucks look at oil I mean we're up over $14,000 from from where that was on at the end of December December 31st. So coming back for us in a big way We're down on the S&P. That's just our long put vertical and what you'll notice is that on a lot of these short Delta Positions because the market has really just been ripping higher since the beginning of the year We're down on some of those trades But Nat gas we are up about another thousand dollars since the beginning of the year. So coming back some in there You could see DIA one of our short Delta positions down about 1200 I'm just gonna go in over some of these bigger ones Lululemon had a loss in there 981 down a thousand in SPY But overall year-to-date so far so for the month of January up over $10,000 On an account that we started with it was what was it around 86 or 87,000? I can't remember so Up over 10% already year-to-date which is is kind of crazy because you know if you look at our performance page and And this is the difference between the closed trades and our overall portfolio You know sometimes the closed trades are we gonna are we going to reflect a better month and sometimes our actual overall Open P&L is going to represent a better month But I've found that this is the best way to do it because we don't want to give access to non-pro members So we only want to show them our closed trades So, you know, we're shown in January. We only made a little over $1,500 on our closed trades Our actual P&L is up over $10,000 So anyway a good start to the year and if we can get a little bit of downside action in stock Well, we'll be having a phenomenal year. So let's let's jump into the alerts for the week and go over what we did here No trades on Monday We you know, we there's no adjustments that were necessary Volatility was contracting so we didn't want to sell any premium that day And so we didn't we didn't have any alerts on Monday, but starting on Tuesday January 29th, we did a rolling adjusting trade in XLK This is a long put vertical that we've had on for that short delta exposure And so we roll that from Feb out to March and we adjusted the strikes accordingly And so let's go to the platform and take a look at XLK So if we go to the analyze tab, you can see it's it's bounced a little bit outside of our range now still just hoarding holding this for that short delta exposure and And hopefully we get some of that soon because that would be very helpful for our portfolio And just to give you an idea we're at about three to one on our short delta versus theta ratio So we like to be anywhere from one to one to five to one is kind of the range we like to we like to play in So we're about three to one. So we're fine Obviously the higher the market goes the more and more short delta We automatically accumulate and so we haven't really been adding any short delta positions in a while, but just that natural Market movement is creating additional short delta So we will you know if this thing keeps going up We're gonna either add some long delta positions or cut loose some short delta So just look for that in the in the next couple weeks depending on what the market does Obviously if we get some downside that would be helpful And we might be able to shed some of these short delta pieces and lower our short delta a little bit But we're we're in good shape right now Where we're at where we're at overall Next trade was a closing trade in IBM. So we had we put on a post earnings short put vertical And we closed that out booked booked right at 50% of max profit. We were in the trade for about six days So nice trade there and let me just go to the chart and kind of show you What we did there So remember in our post earnings Short put verticals what we like to do is if the market opens up over the expected move Then what we like to do is sell puts or sell Put verticals because typically the market is going to stay steady to grind higher That's exactly what happened here and we got out with a nice profit on IBM Next trade was a closing trade in Microsoft so we had a pre earnings long straddle in Microsoft That this did not work out. We we ended up closing that for a loss never got the the expansion in IV never got the Never got the the enough price movement to make that one profitable So we took a couple hundred dollar loss on that one Next one was a closing adjusting trade in eem. So we closed out the put vertical side price moved up outside of our range on our iron condor So we closed out the untested side and then we're still holding the call vertical side We did not add another centered Iron condor because implied volatility is a little bit lower under under that 50 levels at 43 which isn't Isn't too low to necessarily add one But we're just trying to stay mechanical here and if we do pop up Above that 50 on the IV percentile We would potentially look to add another one or somewhere close It doesn't have to be exactly 50 But we do we do want to look at that as a measurement of the Price of the options because if it's over 50 that means they are more expensive than they've been relative To the last year and so that's that's what we use as a measure for high implied volatility Well, let's look at eem And you can see I mean this thing's been super strong this year Let's take a look at our position here. So it broke out of our Of our range here is hanging out right there. So we need a little bit of downside to get back into range This is in feb, which only have 14 days left to expiration So if we can get a quick move down great We'll close that out and end up booking a profit on the entire trade If not, we'll see where we're at overall with short delta And we'll either close this one out and have to take a loss if it stays out of our range Or we'll potentially look to roll if we want to keep that additional short delta on But like I said, if the if the market keeps moving higher We're going to be accumulating short delta in in several different positions. So we may just cut loose and take a loss But we'll see what happens Uh, we're due for a little bit of downside. So we'll see if we get it Next trade was a closing trade in google So we did a pre earnings long call in google Ended up booking a nice profit over 30 Profit after taking some heat most of the trade And let's go to a chart of google If my platform will come up G o o g l and I did have a couple people who who accidentally traded G o o g And the difference is minimal. I mean the only different. I mean there's a slight difference in the actual price But the the stock volume and the options volume and liquidity is almost identical The reason we trade google is because it just has a tiny bit more liquidity, but if you traded google, it's not a big deal Um, you're obviously just going to make make sure you trade the prices that you get and not pay attention to the actual alert prices That we got here. So we got into this trade. We bought a call right here On this day with this big blue bar down But we got in at kind of early in the day So price was up at the upper end of that range of that bar And it immediately went against us pretty significantly. I think we're down about 600 bucks at one time on this trade Even down here. I think we're down up to about 800 dollars But it bounced up looked like it was coming back and then fell down again And then you know just the last couple days boom boom shot up booked a profit of over 30 percent So I ended up being a nice trade The crazy thing is, you know, if we would have gotten in at the end of the day here It would have popped up. We would have we would have gotten a profit right away. We could have even played it again But that's obviously hindsight and you got to play the cards you're dealt. And so that's what happens Now google announces earnings on the fourth Which is uh, which is next week. So but we're out of the trade Nice profit in google Next trade opening adjusting trade in IYR. So we entered a new iron condor in IYR in the march cycle with 42 days left Still holding our other one as well I did mention I skewed this slightly and made it kind of a tighter iron condor just to get it Opted for more credit as opposed to a higher probability of profit And let me move this up so you can see it And I did this with a different number of contracts as you can see it gets a little confusing if you don't So I did this one with four contracts And you can see I put the put slightly closer In delta than I did the call. So it skewed just a little bit Just because we have a lot of downside room on our other piece Which I'll show you in a second, but Um, so we've got two pieces on here two different, uh, tight iron condors. I'll call them And then here is our other piece Which is out of our range, but we did not adjust this by closing the untested side And the reason is if we just look at that put vertical There's still a decent amount of premium in those options. So remember we look we use that break even point Oops, let me let me get back on this one We use the break even point as a trigger to say, hey, does it make sense to adjust at this point? So that's our that's kind of our trigger to analyze the the position But in this case that we always want to look at The the untested side to see how much premium is left in there And and you know, we like to get to the point where there's very little premium left in there before we make the adjustment You don't want to over adjust and so that's why we went ahead and kept this on And of course if we get a little bit of down movement Uh early next week and get back into range Then we'll just continue to keep this trade on and manage it as necessary Next trade rolling adjusting trade in the cues So let's take a look at that one. We've got two sets of short call verticals on in qqq This one moved uh pretty far out of range and this is the It's this one here Uh the 166 one no, I'm sorry. It's the 161 166 Okay, so it's this one here. It's the 172 175. So this is the one we just rolled It's the one that's three three strikes wide because the price has come down Since we've done that roll so price had come way out of a range very little chance of getting back in february Which is the one we closed out of rolled that out to march and adjusted our strikes down to up to the 172 175 So this is what we've got now. We've got the other short call vertical Both of these were we're continuing to hold for that short delta exposure because these price is still Barely in range on this one. So just holding for that short delta short bias exposure in the qqqs Next trade and lastly for the week was a closing adjusting trade in spy So we've got a couple pieces on here. This was our iron condor and price breached our upside And so we went ahead and closed out the Untested side And you can see so price breached our upside break even very little value left in those in that in those puts And so we went ahead and closed those out. So now we're just holding this Hoping for a little bit of a snap back to the downside to get back into range and then we've got The other one which is our other short call vertical, which was also from an iron condor where price moved up Significantly and on this one. I haven't rolled it yet We will next week because we don't want to get assigned and And and we just need to do something about it and excuse me We may just close it or we may roll it But you know, there's very little value left in these options. We've got about 50 dollars in premium left So instead of closing it out and saving that 50 bucks I just you know, I'm hoping for a little bit of downside and if it moves back up here Then then we'll make some of that back But we will be either rolling or closing Next week on that one So those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of these other positions starting with four slash six b The british pound We've got this adjusted strangle on here, which we've got a little bit of profit on overall even after the adjustment If we get a little bit of down movement And and some more implied volatility contraction. We will be good to go on that one and Let's take a look at fxb, which is the corresponding etf And take a look at where that implied volatility is now because if it does continue higher Yeah, implied volatility is still nice and high So we'll most likely add to that one if we if we get a bounce higher Like I said, if we get a bounce lower, we'll we'll book that profit and close it out for a winner Oil I mentioned this Previously how much money we've made back in oil just this year and look at this These are both of our pieces combined but dead centered just collecting that theta and letting that implied volatility contract We've got these two different pieces on here. Both of them are inverted short strangles. Both of them are fairly centered And so nothing to do on these except for weight Both of these are out in the april cycle with 42 days left to uh to expiration So a lot of time left here just going to continue to manage those as needed Yes, we've got this long put vertical. You can see prices moved significantly at a range So just waiting for a potential bounce back to the short side here. We've got 14 days left um, so we'll you know, we'll we'll uh We will continue to roll this as we get closer to expiration Ng netty gas we've got these two pieces on here. Um now that gas has actually Worked against us this week. Uh, it's it's continued. It's downhill slide And man, you know, I mean, I don't know about where you guys are, but it's been a cold winter here And you know, some of these reports come out, you know, we got this spike here There's reports of the cold winter net gas prices needed to go up and then right after that just continued to slide and drop Same thing here reports came out cold winter low supplies of net gas huge spike up and then it just The bottom fell out. So that's why we don't trade news Uh, that's why we trade what's in front of us. We trade implied volatility We trade probabilities and statistics because you will always end up getting burnt if you think, you know, what's going to happen Uh, good chances are the market's going to do the opposite. So Uh, anyway, that's where we're at on that gas. We've got these two different pieces here Uh, both hanging out in the lower end of the range You can see if we just got a little bit of an up move we could get some profits pretty significantly Obviously, if we continue lower, we're going to roll our calls down stay mechanical in doing so So let's take a look at these separately, you know, price is still within range here on this one And then if we look at this one price is barely in range here as well So just continuing to manage that Our old friend wheat. We've got this iron condor pretty dead centered got some profit Looking for a little bit more before we book that one Apple, uh, this is kind of the same situation as spy where price has just been crazy to the upside And so we're almost at a max loss on this piece of the trade. So instead of closing it out and taking it We're going to wait till closer till expiration. See if we get a little a little bit of a bounce a little bit of a A drop lower and get a little bit of get a little bit of that back before we either close or roll Depending on where we're at with our overall short delta Costco Costco's moved down almost 2% today. So got nicely back in the range for us. We've got some profit there Waiting for a little bit more downside before we do anything with that one DIA So let's look at the feb first because this was kind of the same situation as we've got in the qqqs Now there's still a decent amount of premium left here. So This was one that I considered rolling But since I already did it with qqq and since dia and qqq are so correlated the dow and the nasdaq have moved very close in tandem Uh, I wanted, you know, we like to spread out those rolls. Don't do it all in one day So we'll we'll end up rolling this one probably early next week Hopefully before we do that we get a little a little bit of a slide lower And then we've also got our march piece on as well where price is still within range So just holding that for that short delta exposure as well I mentioned eem eww Hanging out kind of the upper end of the range here. We're profitable on this trade But we'd like to get some more if we get a little bit of downside and eww We'll book that one for a profit If it moves to the upside implied volatility is a little bit lower But if we do get a spike up and it moves lower, we may we may add to this one But at this point we're not looking to add ewz same story implied volatility is really contracted in here Uh, but the uh, it's in the upper end of the range. So looking for a little bit of downside before we do anything there Iwm we've got uh two pieces on here We've still got a short call vertical from feb It moved out of range. So we closed out the untested side Looking for a little bit of a bounce lower before we do anything there And then we've also got this full iron condor that we put on that We've got a little bit of profit But waiting for some more before we do anything on that one Iyr I mentioned that q's I mentioned smh We've got a adjusted strangle here and you can see prices hanging out in the upper end of the range here as well Could use some downside to benefit that trade If we take a look at the implied volatility, it has been contracting as well along with most symbols So if we get a little bit of a pop higher in implied volatility, we may look to add to that one But just holding steady for now Uh we talked about spy we talked about xlk xlv This one's been a little bit frustrating We've we I know some of the members actually booked a profit when it was at about I think it was almost at about 50% of max profit at one point But we were holding on for a little bit more We needed the short delta at that time and now prices run away from us outside of our range So we will uh we'll address this here over the next week or so And either roll or close that one depending on what happens And then xrt We've got some profit on this one and the profit line is a little skewed right now because the market's closed But we've got some profit looking for a little bit of downside more implied volatility contraction Before we do anything in xrt you can see the iv percentile right at the 50 level So if it moved out of our range, we could look to potentially add to that one But we would like it to just move down a little bit more So that's where we're at with all of our trades and alerts and positions Everybody have a great weekend. Talk to you next week