 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Ten games late coming up in the NBA for tonight along with three games over in the NHL We're gonna break down both those today with Tom Vecchio picking his brain on Player props and traditional market bets across both to get you ready for Wednesday night This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joint here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio one Tom pleasure to get you back for today How was Miami for the bachelor party this past weekend? It was good. No little bit rain wasn't great But went to Jets dolphins and the Zach Wilson experience in real life is twice as bad as it is When I'm watching on TV or in red zone Don't seem a lot of red zone. So you're actually it's true Dolphins cover the first half spread which I got in before I left You know, I was happy with that and I'm ready to go today You got to see touchdown Trevor Simeon in person. So I'm jealous of that Nothing else that game was significant other than Simeon playing So, you know, I think that makes it by itself a good weekend. It was and you know, the Was the long touchdown to waddle was great. Yeah Yeah, overall good stuff. I Did not have as much waddle for DFS as I should have so I was actually pretty annoyed and that happened So that's why I'm focusing on the Simeon thing disregarding waddle, you know, we'll just go with that instead Yeah, I was gonna be a lot on waddle Since Tyreq was out but just you know in Florida didn't get anything in when I was there Yeah, you had more important things going on right back or short We're gonna break down both the NBA and NHL for tonight by talking to Tom Getting his read on his favorite bets for both those across a fan dual sports book But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast Of course, you can hear Tom later on breaking down the chart or not the Chargers Chargers were last Thursday rams and saints coming up on Thursday night football Maybe crystal lava in that game got back to practice on Tuesday, which is good to see I'll break that game later on today for prime time Tom right here in the covering the spread podcast feed our full NFL week 16 preview with Dr. Ed Feng is coming up tomorrow You're in the same feed no show Friday because of the holidays So make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And you can also find us on the Fandall YouTube page and a fan dual TV plus Score early this NFL season with Fandall America's number one sports book right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 monthly on bet That's a hundred and fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining a fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action. 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Fandall calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit Fandall calm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Virginia call 1 800 next step or text next step to 533 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut 1 109 with an Indiana 105 2 2 4700 to visit KS gambling health commie, Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you hundred three two seven 5050 for 24 seven supporter Massachusetts or call 1 8 770 hoping why her text open why in New York Now Tom, let's begin things on the NBA side of things 10 games slayed for tonight in the NBA any traditional market bets That's staying out to you at Fandall sportsbook for tonight. Yeah, let's start off with the rockets minus three The rockets are much improved team this year. I'm not going to say they're great or they're amazing But they are a significantly better team compared to where they were over the past few seasons. That's very clear uh, also the fact that the hawks just aren't good and the hawks I think get a lot of I don't want to say if it's unfair Or unnecessary Like hype in the betting lines because they've trey young they have the jonte Murray like they have this star power But they're they're still just like a sloppy defensive team and they just don't put it all together on a nightly basis And I also think that this game is going to be trending towards the under I don't think the hawks are going to necessarily get a ton of offense going so I like the rockets to cover They they're again, they're improved. I think they're trending upward overall And again, I think the hawks are a little bit overvalued When it comes to the market overall where they have these big-name players But it doesn't actually translate to consistent on on court production on a nightly basis The plus three for the hawks is minus 108 right now at fan dual sportsbook. So Not or sorry the rockets minus three is minus 112 at fan dual sports book for today's paying a little bit there at the Minus 112 versus a minus 110 for a traditional side But it sounds like it is worth it at least in tom's eyes any other traditional market bets you're eyeing here tom That would be the heat and the orlando magic Under two 21 and a half. I think this is just a touch too high. Jimmy baller has already been ruled out for tonight the The heat are 28th and leading offensive pace and orlando is sitting at 13. So it's a pace down spot for orlando We know that the heat are a good defensive team I also don't think the heat are going to want to get out and run in a super back and forth game when they're missing their best player So they're going to try and slow things down try and control the game just a little bit more because The magic has been super solid this year the magic are sitting in like Second or third or fourth whatever it is in the top of the eastern, you know conference standings Like they're playing super solid ball and they have a lot of you know different weapons on offense And I don't think the heat are going to want to get out and run with them in this back and forth game When jimmy's not there So it's going to be about slowing the game down You know controlling things bam out of bio good defensive, you know player in the middle for the for the heat And should be able to slow pile of bank arrow and fronds bogging down just a little bit So A touch too high on the over under if it was at 217 To 16 and a half. Maybe that's where the over would be in play But combined with the pace combined with missing jimmy butler. It's all about the under tonight And you can see the impact of butler here in the spread too as the heat are plus five in this game Against the magic like you said the magic would have been good this year Especially you know relative to what the betting markets have implied for them But the impact of butler there at the with the spread being five But then also tom liking the under 221 and a half that is also minus 112 Let's talk some player props tom where you're seeing value over there tonight at vandal sportsbook Let's go to the pacers Usual spot to always go for some amount of production And that'd be halibur and tyrus halibur and their best player over 37 and a half points plus assist combined See a minus 106 The spread's 10 and a half in this game and the overunder is 247. I believe And as I've said before the pacers don't play any defense so And I think this 10 and a half number is way too big for who the pacers are as a team So i'm expecting charlotte to cover Which means I expect halibur to have to be out there for The entire game. This is not a blowout I do not expect a blowout factor because if it was a blowout factor I'd be leaning with the under or staying away because halibur wouldn't have to be out there in the fourth quarter So I do expect the the hornets to cover. I think this in this line is inflated This is a fantastic match just because the charlotte's also terrible on defense So we're going to see plenty of production halibur has had some slow games as of late But the shooting in the three-point potential is always there for him He's routinely pushing to 12 13 14 assists and if him scoring 20 or 25 points is the norm Especially in this type of matchup. He should be able to get there So when we combine his usage with an easy matchup But also bad defense because miles turners let's ask questionable for the pacers They're starting center if he's going to be potentially being out I expect the hornets to have an easy path to score and keep this game close It's all about haliburton tonight having to carry the load while the team's still being bad on defense That was points plus assists for haliburton over 37 half minus 104 at fandall sportsbook Is this sustainable tom the pacers play it seems like in like insane games every single night like Is that going to be the norm the entire year or will it be some regression towards like not having totals Pushing 250 260 every night. I think it's It's probably a mix of both if that makes sense. We're like 248 249 like that's not sustainable But 237 to 242 Like that is sustainable because they they have an awesome offense, especially when they're fully healthy You know bedmath or knocking down shots But he healed knocking down shots like they have the players alongside haliburton and miles turners like bring the offense But when they're just so inconsistent on defense and these teams are like every team in league can knock down three So when they get other opponents get the threes going It's going to get into these games. I do expect some regression overall to answer the question directly like 247 is too high But 242 or 240 on a nightly basis should be a little bit easier So still elevated from the norm just not quite as insane as it's been for the pacers That's far. So tom is on the haliburton prop points plus assists at 37 and a half and minus 104 Any other player props that are catching your eye right now tom? Yeah for the sacramental kings keegan murray under 16 and a half points. It's sitting at plus 100 or was plus 100 just a few minutes ago Last year keegan murray set an mba record for the most threes by or rookie And this is shown pretty clearly and in some of these recent recent games He's taken a ton of threes a couple games go hit 12 threes And then he had four threes the other night and his shooting volume is very clear I think he's just been running on the hot side of variance Sure in some of these recent games and the majority of his scoring comes from three pointers So he's primarily a three point shooter where you look at some of these game logs And he's taking half or roughly half of his shots from downtown So he's facing the Celtics there on the second. I have a back to back We have to take that into account I think the line has been inflated because of these recent shooting performances And again, he's running on the hot side of variance where If he's not on the hot side of variance And he's still third on the team when it comes to usage behind year and fox and domitis of bonus The volume of shots should decrease naturally and also the variance will be on the other side this time So under 16 and a half points Yeah, three point shots are are great in terms of getting points in a hurry, but they're also super super volatile And you can take advantage of volatility a lot of times when betting props. I talked to you doctor I'd fang a lot about this like he loves Looking at three point regression when it comes to betting college basketball stuff And that's very applicable here to murray given what the large chunk of his shots that are that fashion I will say as we were talking, uh, it did shift to minus 111 on the under 16 and a half points for keegan murray Big difference there. Um, is that still okay to you? It was even money now minus 111 confirmation bias the people are on this as well I guess which is You know, it's me coping with the fact they move, but is that still okay with you? It is it's probably pushing it though Like what minus 115 is probably the only other The lowest I would go like it's pretty razor thin at this point just because You know, as I said the south is on the second ever back to back And he has been hot which is just a fact So regression is coming whether it's tonight or friday or saturday or sunday whatever it's going to happen But if he has one or two more games like this is I mean, it's possible So it's razor thin right now. Obviously I prefer the plus 100 Right, so If you can get the plus 100 out there that's taken at that but not much further We need all thunders. I know that they're available in some spots But like if we can get some all thunders, you know, that's where you get the real volatility taken advantage of it But uh, check the Murray number points is 16 and a half minus 111 right now Pretty thin According to tom so if it does move even more probably a stay away spot there We just saw the halberton one over 37 and a half points plus assist, which is minus 104 anything else in the nba tom before we shift focus and talk some nhl Uh, the only other spot I'd be relatively interested in would be kawai Leonard only if Paul george is listed out tonight. Now paul george is listed as questionable simply due to an illness Sure, so it's not an injury. It's not an ankle or an ear or anything He's simply listed as questionable due to an illness. So kawai Could be interesting only if paul george is out. Okay, so check the status of paul george Once you get more clarity on that check in on kawai Leonard and see what you want to do With that is they take on the dallas mavericks for tonight We're gonna talk nhl games tom in a bit, but we haven't really gotten to talk More big picture with nhl yet so far this year. So I did want to check in with you. It's a three game slates. We can kind of Uh, luxuriate a bit before we talk about the actual games Let's talk futures Anything you've picked up on the first Month plus or so in the nhl that you think presents value in the futures market over a fandom sports book So the futures market is has been I want to say I don't want to say thrown into disarray, but With the oilers being so bad at the beginning of the year And as we talked about to start the season, I mean, david was the odds on favorite for everything The heart the art the art ross the rock of ashara like all these awards He was the odds on favorite They started off so bad and so many other players started off so strongly That his numbers are super close now with some of his competitors So I do think and as I said at the beginning of the year, it's not like he's a lock to win this award Right when now we're looking at a spot where there's four or five players that are actually in the running to win some of these awards and then You know if we get down to the point where mc david has a great season, but the oilers missed the playoffs How do we take a player? You know, can we take a player that has fewer points than mc david? But their team makes the playoffs and he's like a MVP of the team they're forcing more and more So some of these markets are extremely tough. The only market that I've interested would probably be the vezna, which is for Goalie of the year and the vezna is interesting because All of these other awards are voted on by the ph Wa the professional hockey writers association. I think it's the correct acronym The vezna is not the vezna is voted on by gms Okay, and that is different compared to every other award And a lot of the writers are obviously very analytically forward where they value different things gms value winning So while we can while I can look at a goalie and say listen, this goalie has 28 wins Any in order for the team to win the goalie has a super high workload every single night He has to do an immense amount every night for the team to win This other goalie has 35 wins and his stats are better But he also doesn't as as high of a workload where he can have 28 saves this other goalie needs have 35 So if we drop down just a touch there For the vezna Ilya Sorokin for the New York Islanders is 15 to 1 he opened the season. I think was at 6 to 1 And he's dropped down now the islanders went through complete disarray. They were on a seven game losing streak Now they're playing much better Arguably Sorokin is a top three top four goalie in the league So if the islanders continue on this path and they make the playoffs Which I think is a very very important thing. They have to make the playoffs Sorokin is largely a driving force of that So if they can make the playoffs, I mean So he'll be getting enough wins and he'll have the stats to back it up because his workload is extremely high on a nightly basis Because the islanders give up an immense amount of shots that he's routinely coming away with 35 40 saves So you have to you have to be willing to say the islanders make the playoffs in order to want this bat basically Sure. So with the vezna holistically does it tend to go towards the top goalie on the top team? Like we see with some other awards and are the islanders in a spot where they can still get to A high enough spot with that regard to make up ground for the struggles I had earlier on this year Right. So they are now in second place in the division, which is obviously a positive sign last year the award went to Lena Solmark from the Bruins they Bruins had all these records they won and his stats were great Just because the defense in front of him was so great So it's it's obviously a bit of a long shot at 15 to 1 But I'm under the assumption that the islanders make the playoffs his stats improve And we have the gm's valuing wins and like him being the reason that they get there So with that your dem Kobe the easy answer now at the odds on favorite Yes, because they're amazing and he also has good stats to back it up But I want to take a longer shot of something I do think is realistic Okay, Ilya Sorokin 15 to 1 to win the vezna right now if you're an islanders fan in new york I don't think you can bet that there because I don't believe you can bet MVP markets in in new york So take a trip across state lines if you want to get action on that one. Luckily, I'm in Illinois So no concern for me with Sorokin and the vezna also one other on the awards, which would be Nathan McKinnon at 10 to 1 to win the heart Okay He's second in the league in points right now And he's on a 16 game point streak Part of the problem with him being valued behind some of these other players He's a center So he's and he's always routinely compared to mcdavid and matthews and mcdavid's always better Matthews always has more goals than mcinnon But again, how are we evaluating these teams when it comes to making the playoffs not making the playoffs? He's second in the league in points. The abs are 100 can make the playoffs so We have a player that could realistically finish top three in the league in points Is a center. He has a high workload. He does all these things and he's 10 to 1 Meanwhile, some of these other players may not make the playoffs and they have shorter odds than him Right and I will say jack uses here at 5 to 1 and prior to the season start and starting I talked about him at 18 to 1 to win the heart Which I still have that ticket. So right And the thesis of it was on point, you know talking about mcdavid and the volatility with the fact that he may have been a Bit overvalued with where he was and that's played out so far So good movement on the huge one at 18 to 1 on now 5 to 1 and potentially some value mcinnon as well 10 to 1 right now at vandal sportsbook Let's dig in now to this three game slate in the nhl couple games on national tv for tonight as well Let's start things off with the traditional markets tom anything stand out to you there for tonight That would be the jets Under jets red wings under six and a half. I believe that's still a minus 104 the Wings are having a good season. I also think that they are overperforming as of late And they're also underperforming In terms of their defense of all this makes sense They're overperforming on offense and their defense is underperforming the jets are slightly overperforming on offense They're also missing their best goal score And I think we have to take all this into consideration when we're looking at a team that's due for regression Both offensively and defensively So when we look to the red wings right now over the last two weeks and want to give the most accurate sample size They're scoring 2.46 goals per 60 minutes in 5v5 situations And their expected goals for is at 2.1 They're giving up 3.03 goals and they should be only giving up 2.73 goals So their offense is over reforming their defense is underperforming And then for the jets they're overperforming on offense with 3.64 goals per 60 minutes, which is insane And they're at 2.84 goals when it comes to their expected So we have these teams that like should be converging in different ways where defense moving down and offense moving Down with the defense moving up like all these sorts of things And this is where I like to project forward not only at a team level, but also at an individual basis when players are Underperforming in terms of their individual expected goals Right, so and you know kind of hell you buck for the jets who should be in nets tonight He's I think he's second on on the Vezna chart So he's an elite goaltender by every imaginable statistic and they've been playing super solid defense So the jets defense is fine. It's really their offense that has been overperforming combined with the wings Not a lot of times you get multiple different regression spots all pinpointing towards the same thing And you get three in this matchup with the jets and wings So under six and a half is like you said minus one oh four right now at fan dual sports Any other more traditional markets stand out to you tom? Uh, none in traditional markets tonight. It's actually a super small slate. Uh, the islanders caps I wouldn't mind an over there Simply playing the number because we don't get five and a half's too often and five and a half is a very low number Especially in today's NHL So playing the over there is more about the value that the line presents rather than Like some crazy underlying metrics as I just explained there that makes sense Over there is minus 134, but that's more of a lean and an actual bad from tom player props. What do you see there? sticking with the jets Would be mark shifley over two and a half shots now It's not listed on the fan dual sportsbook as of now. I or is um It might have updated since we started out. So shifley is there. Yeah minus 108 to get three plus shots Okay, so that that's certainly fine. I saw a minus 120 and I thought it was fine So minus 108 is something that I'll certainly like As I mentioned their top score kyle connor is out So their offense is due for regression overall, but Detroit is still allowing a ton of shot attempts So shifley on the first forward line is still going to have the opportunity to take the shots because of Kyle connor their leading shot taker their leading goal scorer being out Just because I don't expect the time to go in because again The regression should be there positively for detroit on defense Just the opportunity in the shot volume overall is going to be there for shifley Who's still there your captain top line center top power play all these sorts of things Yeah, so shifley to get three plus shots at fan dual sports book it's in the alternate market Actually his traditional one is up as well. It's also minus one away did want to check just to be safe You know, sometimes you get different numbers. Yeah, very minor differences sometimes, but it is worth noting Yeah, it's worth checking, but it's minus one away in both spots there for shifley This is you know, we talk a lot about same game parley stuff like that This is not one I would tie with the under because obviously that those don't correlate But it's individual bets and like they're not counterthetical There's not ones I'd want to tie together when it comes to stuff like this So shifley three plus shots or over two and a half is minus one oh eight at fan dual sports book right now Which are the player props are you eyeing tom the kings? That would be kevin fiala for the kings to score a goal at plus two 20 kevin fiala has Fantastic shot volume over the last 10 games and he has zero goals And when you see a player who's playing You know on a top six line or a top six forward He's on the first two forward lines and he's playing on a power play and he's routinely Ending with three or four shots on goal, which means he has five six seven shot attempts And he's not scoring and this has been the story for fiala the entire season He started off with very few goals. He got hot and then he cooled down again We're looking at a high volume shot taker who's simply not scoring and this is just it happens It's like players in the mlb who have super high exit velocity But they've all these flyouts to the warning track It just it is what it is just happens sometimes and then you have these players that take You know 10 shots over 10 games and they have five goals and that's just obviously also unsustainable So i'm playing the number of plus 220 For a player that I think is it do for just an immense positive regression and positive Goal score and break out like it's he's gonna have four goals and five games at some point And that number is going to be plus 130 Yeah, uh fiala plus 220 as tom mentioned for any time goal tonight for the kings versus the kraken Regression is what you want to look for in general And it sounds like we're getting that both with the jet swings under and then also with the fiala goal scoring problem Anything else for tonight tom or is that all we got for today? That uh, I mean, I don't mind uh ovechkin Uh goal it's only plus 125. I would you would have to Maybe look to ovechkin for maybe some extra shots Ovechkin hasn't scored in like 15 games or whatever it is and he's taken all these shots Historically, he has been very successful against the islanders So if you want to take a shot and maybe like a quarter unit sprinkle on ovechkin first goal I don't mind that but that's a very very minor play Uh also bad news the jet swings total did go down to it's still six and a half But it's now minus 110 as opposed to 104 So somebody's listening to you tom and is adjusting markets appropriately So it's minus 110 as always shop around but still not as big of a difference as at the Murray prop So it's still likely some value there at minus 110. That's all we got for today tom I want to thank you for swinging by as always Looking forward to tuning into you later on day as you talk about the rams versus the saints have fun with that We'll talk to you again soon. Thanks for having me find tom on twitter at tom underscore vechio one I am on twitter at jim sonnis you can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research. We are back once again tomorrow talking nfl week 16 With doctor at fang getting his read i want to say our bets at fan dual sports book fork this week We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network