 Hello, my name is Māori McAuliffe. I head up the Migration Research and Publications Division at IOM in Geneva. I'm delighted to be with you, at least virtually, from Geneva for this 2020 to ANU migration update. It's a real pleasure to be joining you from a farm and to be part of this annual update with special thanks to the ANU Migration Network, to RegNet, to the School of Demography and also to the organiser Lawrence Brown. Thank you very much for the opportunity to be part of this really important event. I have the next sort of seven to ten minutes to take you through some of the big global transformations affecting migration and mobility and I will do that through a PowerPoint presentation, so bear with me, do that through a PowerPoint presentation and step you through some of the really big challenges and some of the interconnected global trends shaping migration and mobility. So the three key global transformations shaping migration and mobility in the current environment include geopolitical change, environmental transformations, technological transformations as well. And I hear you ask what about the ongoing global demographic, geographic, economic and social transformations. Certainly agree that these global transformations are affecting migration and mobility, but they've also been doing so for many years and in some cases, decades, in some cases, centuries, they're currently not as intense as the big three global transformations that we'll be talking about this evening. I would also highlight too that this analysis is not really geared to 2050 projections as some parts of the UN system produce, but it's really looking at the next five years or so. And if you want to read more, please have a look at the World Migration Report, especially chapter one, which goes into these transformations in more detail. So the geopolitical transformations, we know that there is intensifying competition between states and involving a larger number of states. It's having an impact on international cooperation, including at the multilateral level. And we know that multilateralism is under extreme pressure with many calls for renewal and revitalization of the UN system, for example. We're also seeing that previously settled hot spots are at increased risk of erupting. And we know now too that displacement due to violent extremism is becoming a key feature in certain parts of the world, such as the Sahel, Southern Thailand, the Philippines, as well as Afghanistan and other parts of West Asia. If we take a quick look at the geopolitical risk index, this is the long term view from 1900 through to September 2022, we can see the two world wars as well as 9-11 featuring very strongly. But if we look zoom in a little bit and look towards the 2000s, we can see the current geopolitical risk index is very high, mainly due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but also other impacts around the world. We also know that the global peacefulness has deteriorated. The Institute of Economics and Peace track this. And unfortunately, in 2022, we've seen another deterioration, which is the 11th in the last 14 years. Donor fatigue is at an all time high, and many donors are re-prioritizing towards domestic crises, such as economic energy crises, political crises and so on. We've also experienced a surge in horizon scanning and scenario workshops, forecasting, now casting. And this is particularly because of the high levels of uncertainty. And we're certainly seeing it occurring within wealthy states and other actors are taking the lead in this regard. The UN Secretary-General's our common agenda and the Summit of the Future, which is now scheduled for 2024, really underscore the UN's need to respond and realign to a shifting geopolitical landscape. And of course, that will be increasingly important through both state actors and on non state actor partnerships. In terms of environmental transformations, we're seeing the intensification of ecologically negative human activity, otherwise called human supremacy by some analysts. This is taking a range of different manifestations, including resource depletion, biodiversity collapse, and of course, climate change. Many analysts report that the world is at or near breaking point on many fronts around climate change, around mass extinction. And of course, pollution is at record levels, altering ecosystems, all around the world. Migration is adaptation to worsening environmental conditions will continue to be a feature, right the way through the next five years and beyond, as the ability to use land and water systems for livelihood strategies will diminish. We also see that COP 27 is highlighting a much greater focus on the migration of displacement impacts due to climate change. Here, he's one figure from the World Migration Report current edition, and we can see internal displacements, new internal displacements for 2020 highlighted on two maps at the top, conflict and violence, the orange dots. You can see that that is much more limited than the bottom map, which shows disaster displacement. And 20, sorry, 42 countries were affected in 2020 by internal displacement due to conflict and violence compared to 144 countries around the world, affected by climate displacement internally. Climate displacement being of course, floods, as we've seen in Pakistan this year, hurricanes and wildfires cyclones amongst many other disasters. The technological transformations, shaping migration and mobility are particularly profound. And the fourth industrial revolution is enabling the share of information across very geographically dispersed groups. It also facilitates financial support to communities such as through mobile money applications. But on the downside, we're seeing self publishing of disinformation, not just from seeing self publishing of disinformation, misinformation on migration really take hold. And there are a number of interest groups who are undermining evidence based information and analysis for political, for ideological or even for commercial gain. Digital divides both between states and then within states due to differential access to ICT really compounds the issues and COVID-19 of course, really turbocharged digitalization. Many countries as we know are seeking to future proof economies by automating key sectors such as agriculture and social care. We've also seen due to COVID-19 an increase in remote working arrangements, including cross border remote working. And we have seen the relocation of work and an increasing prevalence of counter urbanization. So people moving from cities into rural communities to work remotely. But this has been very uneven around the world, mainly due to ICT infrastructure and access, but also due to structures of economies and labor markets. So developing countries behind in terms of remote working arrangements compared to the highly industrialized wealthy economies. We're also seeing the datafication of human interactions and the rapid development and rollout of artificial intelligence technologies with business and government sectors, including in relation to migration and mobility, which really exacerbates the current symmetries of power, as we would say. The long term trend growth, especially in regards to some of the big mega corridors from South Asia to the Gulf, can no longer be assumed to continue in this way that they have in the last decades. And it raises significant strategic implications for some developing countries, particularly around migrant workers and the international remittances that they send back to families and communities. Here we've got a slide, it's ITU data from 2020 showing both the digital divides across countries by development status. So on the left hand side, we've got the global digital divide by sex and then developed followed by developing and least developed countries. And we can see that in the developed country context, there isn't a significant, there's almost gender parity when it comes to digital divides. Whereas when we go to developing and least developed countries, this is where we can really see a significant issue in regards to access to the internet by sex with least developed countries showing females lagging way behind. Just a few reminders before I finish up. Geography, of course, remains an important determinant of international migration. Proximity is a significant issue, some would argue the major issue as well as urbanisation and now increasingly counter urbanisation following COVID. We know that the single biggest issue in demography at the global level is population growth. But demographic transition is also very important, especially when it comes to migration. We also know that COVID-19 has negatively impacted fertility in many countries, including countries that had previously experienced low fertility. COVID-19 has also resulted in a major break to migration and mobility resulting in labour shortages and skill gaps in many countries. So we can see that international cooperation on migration that upholds the migrants rights is more important than ever. Migration remains one of the most strategic policy issues of our time. I will leave it there and I hope you enjoy the remainder of the ANU migration update for 2022 and I look forward to seeing you at ANU sometime in the future. Thank you very much.